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A Strong Atmospheric River Responsible for the 2019 Record Floods in the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause some of the weather-related disasters around the world. While many studies have shown the contribution of ARs to precipitation in the coastal regions such as western Europe and the U.S. West Coast, little is known about their mechanisms and impacts on flooding in the Middle East. This study shows that an AR was responsible for the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East. Iran in particular was hit hardest with the floods that left a death toll of at least 76 and an early estimate of $2.5 billion (U.S. dollars) damage to its infrastructures. The heavy precipitation produced by this AR made the 2018/19 rainy season the wettest in the past four decades. By contrast, the prior year (2017/18) was the driest over the same period. This is a compelling example of rapid dry-to-wet transitions that may enhance the chance of landslides and impose challenges to water resources management. The AR originated in the Atlantic Ocean and propagated across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula before its final landfall over the Zagros Mountains. On its nearly 9000 km journey, the AR received additional moisture from the Mediterranean, Red, and Arabian Seas, and the Persian Gulf. Moisture transport by this AR during 24-25 March 2019 is estimated at more than 150times the aggregated discharge of the four major rivers in the region, that is, the Tigris, Euphrates, Karun, and Karkheh. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in all surrounding basins and coincidence of a midlatitude system and a subtropical jet provided the necessary ingredients for formation of this strong AR. This work underlines the fact that the impacts of rain-producing ARs are not limited to the coastal regions. Such ARs can travel very long distances away from the oceans and affect remote arid and semi-arid regions like the Middle East. This study examined an individual AR, though one associated with record floods. However, it attempts to draw attention to the need for more AR-related research over the Middle East.

Atmospheric Rivers↗

NASA NTRS2021

Placing the East-West North American Aridity Gradient in a Multi-Century Context

Instrumental records indicate a century-long trend towards drying over western North America and wetting over eastern North America. A continuation of these trends into the future would have significant hydroclimatic and socioeconomic consequences in both the semi-arid Southwest and humid East. Using tree-ring reconstructions and hydrologic simulations of summer soil moisture, we evaluate and contextualize the modern summer aridity gradient within its natural range of variability established over the past 600 years and evaluate the effects of observed and anthropogenic precipitation, temperature, and humidity trends. The 2001–2020 positive (wet east-dry west) aridity gradient was larger than any 20-year period since 1400 CE, preceded by the most negative (wet west-dry east) aridity gradient during 1976-1995, leading to a strong multi-decade reversal in aridity gradient anomalies that was rivaled only by a similar event in the late-16th century. The 2001-2020 aridity gradient was dominated by long-term summer precipitation increases in the Midwest and Northeast, with smaller contributions from more warming in the West than the East and spring precipitation decreases in the Southwest. Multi-model mean climate simulations from CMIP6 experiments suggest anthropogenic climate trends should not have strongly affected the aridity gradient thus far. However, there is high uncertainty due to inter-model disagreement on anthropogenic precipitation trends. The recent strengthening of the observed aridity gradient, its increasing dependence on precipitation variability, and disagreement in modeled anthropogenic precipitation trends reveal significant uncertainties in how water resource availability will change across North America in the coming decades.

drought↗

NASA NTRS2017

Precipitation Characteristics in West and East Africa from Satellite and in Situ Observations

Using in situ data, three precipitation classes are identified for rainy seasons of West and East Africa: weak convective rainfall (WCR), strong convective rainfall (SCR), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs).Nearly 75% of the total seasonal precipitation is produced by the SCR and MCSs, even though they represent only 8% of the rain events. Rain events in East Africa tend to have a longer duration and lower intensity than in West Africa, reflecting different characteristics of the SCR and MCS events in these two regions. Surface heating seems to be the primary convection trigger for the SCR, particularly in East Africa, whereas the WCR requires a dynamical trigger such as low-level convergence. The data are used to evaluate the performance of the recently launched Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG)project. The IMERG-based precipitation shows significant improvement over its predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), particularly in capturing the MCSs, due to its improved temporal resolution.

West and East Africa↗

NASA NTRS2022

Compound Effects of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Issues in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5,to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle(2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21stcentury. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

Tigris-Euphrates headwater↗

NASA NTRS1984

The monsoon of East Asia and its global associations - A survey

Observations concerning the summer and winter monsoons of East Asia and their global associations are reviewed. The seasonal mean structure, transient variation, (intraseasonal to interannual), and synoptic-to-planetary scale fluctuations are discussed separately for the two monsoon components. Similarities and differences between the East Asian monsoon and that of India are also surveyed. Also presented is a description of the current status of monsoon-related observational and theoretical research. The importance of understanding the long-term anomalies of the monsoon is stressed, and an attempt is made to put the East Asian monsoon in a global perspective with a view towards its identification with the problems of long-range weather forecasting or short-term climate prediction in general. Finally, some future directions of research are suggested.

Lau, K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

An examination of vertical circulations associated with heavy snow events along the East Coast

Observational data are presented to show how a particular orientation of upper-level jet streaks (ULJS) associated with a diffluent trough near the East Coast of the U.S. can lead to heavy snowfalls. Surface fronts, precipitation and isobar maps, vertical motion vectors, and geostrophic wind streamlines preceding and during snowstorms on February 11, 1983, February 19, 1979, January 20, 1978, and January 13, 1964 are examined. The interaction of a direct vertical ageostrophic circulation within the confluent entrance of a ULJS over the northeastern U.S. or southeastern Canada and an indirect circulation within the exit region of a ULJS accompanying a trough nearing the East Coast are demonstrated to be conducive to heavy snowfall on the East Coast.

Kocin, Paul J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Seasonal and intraseasonal climatology of summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia

This paper presents a documentation of the seasonal and intraseasonal rainfall climatology of summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia, using monthly and 10-d precipitation data from East Asian stations. These data are then related to satellite measurements of longwave radiation and large-scale circulation field. Major rainfall regimes and multiple monsoon onsets are identified, indicating that, in general, monsoon rainfall over East Asia evolves with wavelike progression from north to south from April to September. Abrupt changes in the major rainbands are related to the phase-locking between intraseasonal oscillations found in this study, such as the 40-d and 20-d rainfall fluctuations, and the seasonal monsoon cycle.

Lau, K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Local Data Integration in East Central Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit has configured a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) for east central Florida which assimilates in-situ and remotely-sensed observational data into a series of high-resolution gridded analyses. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS MLB) operational requirements. LDIS has the potential to provide added value for nowcasts and short-ten-n forecasts for two reasons. First, it incorporates all data operationally available in east central Florida. Second, it is run at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than current national-scale operational models such as the Rapid Update Cycle and Eta models. LDIS combines all available data to produce grid analyses of primary variables (wind, temperature, etc.) at specified temporal and spatial resolutions. These analyses of primary variables can be used to compute diagnostic quantities such as vorticity and divergence. This paper demonstrates the utility of LDIS over east central Florida for a warm season case study. The evolution of a significant thunderstorm outflow boundary is depicted through horizontal and vertical cross section plots of wind speed, divergence, and circulation. In combination with a suitable visualization too], LDIS may provide users with a more complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving mesoscale weather than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and its Association with the Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The wintertime upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation over Asia. The variabilities of the jet on these time scales have been relatively well documented (e.g., Yeh et al. 1959, Palmen and Newton 1969; Zeng 1979). It has also been understood that the inter-annual variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation (Bjerknes 1966; Chang and Lau 1980; Huang and Gambo 1982; Kang and Held 1986; Tao and Chen 1987; Lau et al. 1988; Yang and Webster 1990; Ding 1992; Webster and Yang 1992; Dong et al. 1999). However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the jet and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the jet and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet linked to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern? In this study, we address several issues related to the wintertime EAJ with a focus on interannual time scales. We will examine the association between the jet core and ENSO, which has always been overshadowed by the relationship between ENSO and the upper-tropospheric winds over northern extratropics of the central Pacific. We will investigate the linkage of the jet to variabilities of the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, and upper tropospheric wave patterns. We will also explore the relationship between the jet core and extratropical S ST with an aim at providing helpful information for improving our understanding of the connection of the EAJ to surface boundary conditions. The analysis is expected to provide information that is helpful for improving regional climate predictions.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS2002

Ship Radar Observations of a Developing Hurricane in the East Pacific

During the recently completed East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System (EPIC) field program, the NOAA research vessel Ronald H. Brown (RHB) was deployed in the east Pacific Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) for approximately 3 weeks near 10 deg. N, 95 deg. W. One of the principal objectives of the EPIC-ITCZ program was to observe the modulation of convection by synoptic-scale easterly waves and the air-sea coupling process in this poorly sampled region of the east Pacific. Data from the experiment will be used as validation to improve forecast models. The RHB carried a variety of platforms during EPIC to sample atmospheric and oceanic phenomena, including a scanning C-band Doppler radar, radiation flux instrumentation, air-sea flux system, Doppler lidar, 35 GHz cloud radar, UHF wind profiler, sea surface temperature (SST) sensors, as well as standard surface meteorological instrumentation and a suite of rain gauges. This presentation will focus on the analysis of C-band radar data that was collected on 10 September, 2001 as the ship passed through an easterly wave which later developed into hurricane Ivo. The ship captured approximately 12 hours of convection associated with the tropical disturbance. During this period, the domain sampled by the radar (approximately 71,000 sq km) contained a significant number of echo features. Specifically, the fraction of the domain containing radar echo above 10 dBZ reached 80% for over 2 hours and remained near 60% for a continuous six hour period. Animation of radar images showed distinct rotation in echo features associated with the easterly wave passage. Despite an approximate 4 C drop in surface air temperature and sustained winds approaching 20 m/ s, the SST remained nearly constant throughout the observation period (approx. 29.5 C). Peak values of latent and sensible heat flux exceeded 400 and 100 W /sq m, respectively. The radar documented the change in precipitation vertical structure as the ship passed through regions of significant convection with echo tops approaching 14 km and 30 dBZ echo tops extending to near 9 km embedded in regions that were predominantly stratiform in nature. Single Doppler retrievals (Extended Velocity Azimuth Display) were conducted continuously at 10-minute resolution for approximately 4 hours in the latter part of the observation period, and documented the transition from convection (low-level convergence, upper level divergence) to stratiform (mid-level convergence sandwiched between upper and lower level divergence) kinematic structure.

Cifelli, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2003

The East and Southeast Asia Initiatives: Aerosol Column Measurements

Airborne dusts from northern China contribute a significant part of the air quality problem and, to some extent, regional climatic impact in Asia during spring- time. However, with the economical growth in China, increases in the emission of air pollutants generated from industrial and vehicular sources will not only impact the radiation balance, but adverse health effects to humans all year round. In addition, both of these dust and air pollution clouds can transport swiftly across the Pacific reaching North America within a few days, possessing an even larger scale effect. The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites (e.g., MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS, etc.) and its evolution monitored by satellites and surface network. Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the unique climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3,Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning processes. These gases influence the Earth- atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play an important role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, hence, altering the earth's radiation and water budget. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds from the soil to the atmosphere; the hydrological cycle (i.e., run off and evaporation); land surface reflectivity and emissivity; as well as ecosystem biodiversity and stability. Two new initiatives, EAST-AIRE (East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: an International Regional Experiment) and BASE-ASIA (Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment) will be presented and discussed their contribution to better understand the impacts of aerosols on regional-to- global climate, hydrological and carbon cycles, and tropospheric chemistry.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

NASA NTRS2000

Sedimentology and geochemistry of a perennially ice-covered epishelf lake in Bunger Hills Oasis, East Antarctica

A process-oriented study was carried out in White Smoke lake, Bunger Hills, East Antarctica, a perennially ice-covered (1.8 to 2.8 m thick) epishelf (tidally-forced) lake. The lake water has a low conductivity and is relatively well mixed. Sediments are transferred from the adjacent glacier to the lake when glacier ice surrounding the sediment is sublimated at the surface and replaced by accumulating ice from below. The lake bottom at the west end of the lake is mostly rocky with a scant sediment cover. The east end contains a thick sediment profile. Grain size and delta 13C increase with sediment depth, indicating a more proximal glacier in the past. Sedimentary 210Pb and 137Cs signals are exceptionally strong, probably a result of the focusing effect of the large glacial catchment area. The post-bomb and pre-bomb radiocarbon reservoirs are c. 725 14C yr and c. 1950 14C yr, respectively. Radiocarbon dating indicates that the east end of the lake is >3 ka BP, while photographic evidence and the absence of sediment cover indicate that the west end has formed only over the last century. Our results indicate that the southern ice edge of Bunger Hills has been relatively stable with only minor fluctuations (on the scale of hundreds of metres) over the last 3000 years.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of ICESat Data Using Kalman Filter and Kriging to Study Height Changes in East Antarctica

We analyze ICESat derived heights collected between Feb. 03-Nov. 04 using a kriging/Kalman filtering approach to investigate height changes in East Antarctica. The model's parameters are height change to an a priori static digital height model, seasonal signal expressed as an amplitude Beta and phase Theta, and height-change rate dh/dt for each (100 km)(exp 2) block. From the Kalman filter results, dh/dt has a mean of -0.06 m/yr in the flat interior of East Antarctica. Spatially correlated pointing errors in the current data releases give uncertainties in the range 0.06 m/yr, making height change detection unreliable at this time. Our test shows that when using all available data with pointing knowledge equivalent to that of Laser 2a, height change detection with an accuracy level 0.02 m/yr can be achieved over flat terrains in East Antarctica.

Herring, Thomas A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

NASA NTRS2014

The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

EA/WR↗

NASA NTRS2013

High-Energy X-rays from J174545.5-285829, the Cannonball: a Candidate Pulsar Wind Nebula Associated with Sgr a East

We report the unambiguous detection of non-thermal X-ray emission up to 30 keV from the Cannonball, a few arcsecond long diffuse X-ray feature near the Galactic Center, using the NuSTAR X-ray observatory. The Cannonball is a high-velocity (v(proj) approximately 500 km s(exp −1)) pulsar candidate with a cometary pulsar wind nebula (PWN) located approximately 2' north-east from Sgr A*, just outside the radio shell of the supernova remnant Sagittarius A (Sgr A) East. Its non-thermal X-ray spectrum, measured up to 30 keV, is well characterized by a Gamma is approximately 1.6 power law, typical of a PWN, and has an X-ray luminosity of L(3-30 keV) = 1.3 × 10(exp 34) erg s(exp −1). The spectral and spatial results derived from X-ray and radio data strongly suggest a runaway neutron star born in the Sgr A East supernova event. We do not find any pulsed signal from the Cannonball. The NuSTAR observations allow us to deduce the PWN magnetic field and show that it is consistent with the lower limit obtained from radio observations.

stars: neutron↗

NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

NASA NTRS2015

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗