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Software for Data Analysis with Graphical Models

Probabilistic graphical models are being used widely in artificial intelligence and statistics, for instance, in diagnosis and expert systems, as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities and independencies. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing statistical inference. This offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper illustrates the framework with an example and then presents some basic techniques for the task: problem decomposition and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

Buntine, Wray L.↗

Data Analysis with Graphical Models: Software Tools

Probabilistic graphical models (directed and undirected Markov fields, and combined in chain graphs) are used widely in expert systems, image processing and other areas as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing probabilistic inference. This paper discusses an extension to these models by Spiegelhalter and Gilks, plates, used to graphically model the notion of a sample. This offers a graphical specification language for representing data analysis problems. When combined with general methods for statistical inference, this also offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper outlines the framework and then presents some basic tools for the task: a graphical version of the Pitman-Koopman Theorem for the exponential family, problem decomposition, and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

Buntine, Wray L.↗

Automatic detection of small bowel tumors in wireless capsule endoscopy images using ensemble learning

Purpose Wireless Capsule Endoscopy (WCE) is a minimally invasive diagnosis tool for lesion detection in the gastrointestinal tract, reaching places where conventional endoscopy is unable to. However, the significant amount of acquired data leads to difficulties in the diagnosis by the physicians; which can be eased with computer assistance. This paper addresses a method for the automatic detection of tumors in WCE by using a two‐step based procedure: region of interest selection and classification. Methods The first step aims to separate abnormal from normal tissue by using automatic segmentation based on a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). A modified version of the Anderson method for convergence acceleration of the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed. The proposed features for both segmentation and classification are based on the CIELab color space, as a way of bypassing lightness variations, where the L component is discarded. Tissue variability among subjects, light inhomogeneities and even intensity differences among different devices can be overcome by using simultaneously features from both regions. In the second step, an ensemble system with partition of the training data with a new training scheme is proposed. At this stage, the gating network is trained after the experts have been trained decoupling the joint maximization of both modules. The partition module is also used at the test step, leading the incoming data to the most likely expert allowing incremental adaptation by preserving data diversity. Results This algorithm outperforms others based on texture features selected from Wavelets and Curvelets transforms, classified by a regular support vector machine (SVM) in more than 5%. Conclusions This work shows that simpler features can outperform more elaborate ones if appropriately designed. In the current case, luminance was discarded to cope with saturated tissue, facilitating the color perception. Ensemble systems remain an open research field. In the current case, changes in both topology and training strategy have led to significant performance improvements. A system with this level of performance can be used in current clinical practice.

Vieira, Pedro M.↗

Apparent permeability prediction of organic shale with generalized lattice Boltzmann model considering surface diffusion effect

Gas flow in shale is associated with both organic matter (OM) and inorganic matter (IOM) which contain nano-pores ranging in size from a few to hundreds of nano-meters. In addition to the non-continuum effect which leads to an apparent permeability of gas higher than the intrinsic permeability, the surface diffusion of adsorbed gas in organic pores also can influence the apparent permeability through its own transport mechanism. In this study, a generalized lattice Boltzmann model (GLBM) is employed for gas flow through the reconstructed shale matrix consisting of OM and IOM. The Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to assign the pore size distribution to each component, and the dusty gas model (DGM) and generalized Maxwell–Stefan model (GMS) are adopted to calculate the apparent permeability accounting for multiple transport mechanisms including viscous flow, Knudsen diffusion and surface diffusion. Effects of pore radius and pressure on permeability of both IOM and OM as well as effects of Langmuir parameters on OM are investigated. The effect of total organic content and distribution on the apparent permeability of the reconstructed shale matrix at different surface diffusivity is also studied. It is found that the influence of pore size and pressure on the apparent permeability of organic matter is affected by the surface diffusion of adsorbed gas. Furthermore, surface diffusion plays a significant role in determining apparent permeability and the velocity distribution of shale matrix.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A study on fast digital discrimination of neutron and gamma-ray for improvement neutron emission profile measurement

Neutron and γ-ray (n-γ) discrimination with a digital signal processing system has been used to measure the neutron emission profile in magnetic confinement fusion devices. However, a sampling rate must be set low to extend the measurement time because the memory storage is limited. Time jitter decreases a discrimination quality due to a low sampling rate. As described in this paper, a new charge comparison method was developed. Furthermore, automatic n-γ discrimination method was examined using a probabilistic approach. Analysis results were investigated using the figure of merit. Results show that the discrimination quality was improved. Automatic discrimination was applied using the EM algorithm and k-means algorithm.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Latent Laplacian Maximum Entropy Discrimination for Detection of High-Utility Anomalies

Data-driven anomaly detection methods suffer from the drawback of detecting all instances that are statistically rare, irrespective of whether the detected instances have realworld significance or not. In this paper, we are interested in the problem of specifically detecting anomalous instances that are known to have high real-world utility, while ignoring the low-utility statistically anomalous instances. To this end, we propose a novel method called Latent Laplacian Maximum Entropy Discrimination (LatLapMED) as a potential solution. This method uses the EM algorithm to simultaneously incorporate the Geometric Entropy Minimization principle for identifying statistical anomalies, and the Maximum Entropy Discrimination principle to incorporate utility labels, in order to detect highutility anomalies. Here, we apply our method in both simulated and real datasets to demonstrate that it has superior performance over existing alternatives that independently pre-process with unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms before classifying.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Gamma-Ray Point-Source Localization and Sparse Image Reconstruction using Poisson Likelihood

Gamma-ray imaging trys to reconstruct the spatial and intensity distribution of gamma-emitting radionuclides from a set of measurements. Wholly, this problem is solved by discretizing the spatial dimensions and employing the maximum likelihood expectation maximization (ML-EM) algorithm, with or without some form of regularization. While the generality of this formulation enables use in a wide variety of scenarios, it is susceptible to overfitting, limited by the discretization of spatial coordinates, and can be computationally expensive. We present a novel approach to 3D gamma-ray image reconstruction for scenarios where sparsity may be assumed, for example radiological source search. In this work we first formulate a point-source localization (PSL) approach as an optimization problem where both position and source intensity are continuous variables. We then extend and generalize this formulation to an iterative algorithm called additive point-source localization (APSL) for sparse parametric image reconstruction. A set of simulated source search scenarios using a single non-directional detector are considered, finding improved image accuracy and computational efficiency with APSL over traditional grid-based methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Anomaly Detection in Partially Observed Traffic Networks

This paper addresses the problem of detecting anomalous activity in traffic networks where the network is not directly observed. Given knowledge of what the node-tonode traffic in a network should be, any activity that differs significantly from this baseline would be considered anomalous. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the traffic rates and detecting anomalous changes in the network. The probabilistic nature of the model allows us to perform statistical goodness-of-fit tests to detect significant deviations from a baseline network. We show that due to the more defined structure of the hierarchical Bayesian model, such tests perform well even when the empirical models estimated by the EM algorithm are misspecified. Finally, we apply our model to both simulated and real datasets to demonstrate its superior performance over existing alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SU-E-T-51: Bayesian Network Models for Radiotherapy Error Detection

Purpose: To develop a probabilistic model of radiotherapy plans using Bayesian networks that will detect potential errors in radiation delivery. Methods: Semi-structured interviews with medical physicists and other domain experts were employed to generate a set of layered nodes and arcs forming a Bayesian Network (BN) which encapsulates relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies. Concepts in the final network were limited to those whose parameters are represented in the institutional database at a level significant enough to develop mathematical distributions. The concept-relation knowledge base was constructed using the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and translated into Hugin Expert Bayes Network files via the the RHugin package in the R statistical programming language. A subset of de-identified data derived from a Mosaiq relational database representing 1937 unique prescription cases was processed and pre-screened for errors and then used by the Hugin implementation of the Estimation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for machine learning all parameter distributions. Individual networks were generated for each of several commonly treated anatomic regions identified by ICD-9 neoplasm categories including lung, brain, lymphoma, and female breast. Results: The resulting Bayesian networks represent a large part of the probabilistic knowledge inherent in treatment planning. By populating the networks entirely with data captured from a clinical oncology information management system over the course of several years of normal practice, we were able to create accurate probability tables with no additional time spent by experts or clinicians. These probabilistic descriptions of the treatment planning allow one to check if a treatment plan is within the normal scope of practice, given some initial set of clinical evidence and thereby detect for potential outliers to be flagged for further investigation. Conclusion: The networks developed here support the use of probabilistic models into clinical chart checking for improved detection of potential errors in RT plans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TH-E-BRF-09: Gaussian Mixture Model Analysis of Radiation-Induced Parotid-Gland Injury: An Ultrasound Study of Acute and Late Xerostomia in Head-And-Neck Radiotherapy

Purpose: Xerostomia (dry mouth), secondary to parotid-gland injury, is a distressing side-effect in head-and-neck radiotherapy (RT). This study's purpose is to develop a novel ultrasound technique to quantitatively evaluate post-RT parotid-gland injury. Methods: Recent ultrasound studies have shown that healthy parotid glands exhibit homogeneous echotexture, whereas post-RT parotid glands are often heterogeneous, with multiple hypoechoic (inflammation) or hyperechoic (fibrosis) regions. We propose to use a Gaussian mixture model to analyze the ultrasonic echo-histogram of the parotid glands. An IRB-approved clinical study was conducted: (1) control-group: 13 healthy-volunteers, served as the control; (2) acutetoxicity group − 20 patients (mean age: 62.5 ± 8.9 years, follow-up: 2.0±0.8 months); and (3) late-toxicity group − 18 patients (mean age: 60.7 ± 7.3 years, follow-up: 20.1±10.4 months). All patients experienced RTOG grade 1 or 2 salivary-gland toxicity. Each participant underwent an ultrasound scan (10 MHz) of the bilateral parotid glands. An echo-intensity histogram was derived for each parotid and a Gaussian mixture model was used to fit the histogram using expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The quality of the fitting was evaluated with the R-squared value. Results: (1) Controlgroup: all parotid glands fitted well with one Gaussian component, with a mean intensity of 79.8±4.9 (R-squared>0.96). (2) Acute-toxicity group: 37 of the 40 post-RT parotid glands fitted well with two Gaussian components, with a mean intensity of 42.9±7.4, 73.3±12.2 (R-squared>0.95). (3) Latetoxicity group: 32 of the 36 post-RT parotid fitted well with 3 Gaussian components, with mean intensities of 49.7±7.6, 77.2±8.7, and 118.6±11.8 (R-squared>0.98). Conclusion: RT-associated parotid-gland injury is common in head-and-neck RT, but challenging to assess. This work has demonstrated that the Gaussian mixture model of the echo-histogram could quantify acute and late toxicity of the parotid glands. This study provides meaningful preliminary data from future observational and interventional clinical research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Improved dosimetry for targeted radionuclide therapy using nonrigid registration on sequential SPECT images

Purpose: Voxel-level and patient-specific 3D dosimetry for targeted radionuclide therapy (TRT) typically involves serial nuclear medicine scans. Misalignment of the images can result in reduced dosimetric accuracy. Since the scans are typically performed over a period of several days, there will be patient movement between scans and possible nonrigid organ deformation. This work aims to implement and evaluate the use of nonrigid image registration on a series of quantitative SPECT (QSPECT) images for TRT dosimetry. Methods: A population of 4D extended cardiac torso phantoms, comprised of three In-111 Zevalin biokinetics models and three anatomical variations, was generated based on the patient data. The authors simulated QSPECT acquisitions at five time points. At each time point, individual organ and whole-body deformation between scans were modeled by translating/rotating organs and the body up to 5°/voxels, keeping ≤5% difference in organ volume. An analytical projector was used to generate realistic noisy projections for a medium energy general purpose collimator. Projections were reconstructed using OS-EM algorithm with geometric collimator detector response, attenuation, and scatter corrections. The QSPECT images were registered using organ-based nonrigid image registration method. The cumulative activity in each voxel was obtained by integrating the activity over time. Dose distribution images were obtained by convolving the cumulative activity images with a Y-90 dose kernel. Dose volume histograms (DVHs) for organs-of-interest were analyzed. Results: After nonrigid registration, the mean differences in organ doses compared to the case without misalignment were improved from (−15.50 ± 5.59)% to (−2.12 ± 1.05)% and (−7.28 ± 2.30)% to (−0.23 ± 0.71)% for the spleen and liver, respectively. For all organs, the cumulative DVHs showed improvement after nonrigid registration and the normalized absolute error of differential DVHs ranged from 6.79% to 22.70% for liver and 26.00% to 39.70% for spleen with different segmentation methods. Conclusions: These results demonstrated that nonrigid registration of sequential QSPECT images is feasible for TRT and improves the accuracy of 3D dosimetry.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Statistical methods for astronomical data with upper limits. II - Correlation and regression

Statistical methods for calculating correlations and regressions in bivariate censored data where the dependent variable can have upper or lower limits are presented. Cox's regression and the generalization of Kendall's rank correlation coefficient provide significant levels of correlations, and the EM algorithm, under the assumption of normally distributed errors, and its nonparametric analog using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, give estimates for the slope of a regression line. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that survival analysis is reliable in determining correlations between luminosities at different bands. Survival analysis is applied to CO emission in infrared galaxies, X-ray emission in radio galaxies, H-alpha emission in cooling cluster cores, and radio emission in Seyfert galaxies.

Isobe, T.↗

Density Estimation with Mercer Kernels

We present a new method for density estimation based on Mercer kernels. The density estimate can be understood as the density induced on a data manifold by a mixture of Gaussians fit in a feature space. As is usual, the feature space and data manifold are defined with any suitable positive-definite kernel function. We modify the standard EM algorithm for mixtures of Gaussians to infer the parameters of the density. One benefit of the approach is it's conceptual simplicity, and uniform applicability over many different types of data. Preliminary results are presented for a number of simple problems.

Macready, William G.↗

Particle Filtering for Model-Based Anomaly Detection in Sensor Networks

A novel technique has been developed for anomaly detection of rocket engine test stand (RETS) data. The objective was to develop a system that postprocesses a csv file containing the sensor readings and activities (time-series) from a rocket engine test, and detects any anomalies that might have occurred during the test. The output consists of the names of the sensors that show anomalous behavior, and the start and end time of each anomaly. In order to reduce the involvement of domain experts significantly, several data-driven approaches have been proposed where models are automatically acquired from the data, thus bypassing the cost and effort of building system models. Many supervised learning methods can efficiently learn operational and fault models, given large amounts of both nominal and fault data. However, for domains such as RETS data, the amount of anomalous data that is actually available is relatively small, making most supervised learning methods rather ineffective, and in general met with limited success in anomaly detection. The fundamental problem with existing approaches is that they assume that the data are iid, i.e., independent and identically distributed, which is violated in typical RETS data. None of these techniques naturally exploit the temporal information inherent in time series data from the sensor networks. There are correlations among the sensor readings, not only at the same time, but also across time. However, these approaches have not explicitly identified and exploited such correlations. Given these limitations of model-free methods, there has been renewed interest in model-based methods, specifically graphical methods that explicitly reason temporally. The Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) in a Linear Dynamic System approach assumes that the multi-dimensional test data is a mixture of multi-variate Gaussians, and fits a given number of Gaussian clusters with the help of the wellknown Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The parameters thus learned are used for calculating the joint distribution of the observations. However, this GMM assumption is essentially an approximation and signals the potential viability of non-parametric density estimators. This is the key idea underlying the new approach.

Solano, Wanda↗

Shape Estimation for Elongated Deformable Object using B-spline Chained Multiple Random Matrices Model

In this paper, a B-spline chained multiple random matrix models (RMMs) representation is proposed to model geometric characteristics of an elongated deformable object. The hyper degrees of freedom structure of the elongated deformable object make its shape estimation challenging. Based on the likelihood function of the proposed B-spline chained multiple RMMs, an expectation-maximization (EM) method is derived to estimate the shape of the elongated deformable object. A split and merge method based on the Euclidean minimum spanning tree (EMST) is proposed to provide initialization for the EM algorithm. The proposed algorithm is evaluated for the shape estimation of the elongated deformable objects in scenarios, such as the static rope with various configurations (including configurations with intersection), the continuous manipulation of a rope and a plastic tube, and the assembly of two plastic tubes. The execution time is computed and the accuracy of the shape estimation results is evaluated based on the comparisons between the estimated width values and its ground-truth, and the intersection over union (IoU) metric.

Gang Yao↗

A Scintillation-Fiber Based Cosmic-ray Muon Tomography System for Imaging Dry Storage Cask

Because of the growth of the nuclear power industry in the United States and the policy decision to ban reprocessing of commercial spent nuclear fuel, the spent fuel inventory at commercial reactor sites has been increasing. Spent nuclear fuel presents extra complexity of security and proliferation issues. These fuel assemblies are practically inaccessible for inspection purposes, as reopening a DSC would require special facilities and would be tremendously expensive. Cosmic-ray muon Tomography has been studied in the past for various applications and was demonstrated to be a good non-destructive assay technique for high-Z materials, such as spent nuclear fuel assemblies in dry storage casks (DSC). Compared to conventional imaging techniques, muon imaging has some advantages due to its negligible health risk and high penetrating power. In this paper, we report our simulation study on imaging a DSC using muon Tomography technique. The Point of Closest Approach (POCA) and the Maximum-Likelihood Expectation- Maximization (ML-EM) algorithms are implemented and evaluated. A scaled-down prototype muon tomography system is proposed and studied. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Sensor Data Quality and Angular Rate Down-Selection Algorithms on SLS EM-1

The NASA Space Launch System Block 1 launch vehicle is equipped with an Inertial Navigation System (INS) and multiple Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGA) that are used in the Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) algorithms. The INS provides the inertial position, velocity, and attitude of the vehicle along with both angular rate and specific force measurements. Additionally, multiple sets of co-located rate gyros supply angular rate data. The collection of angular rate data, taken along the launch vehicle, is used to separate out vehicle motion from flexible body dynamics. Since the system architecture uses redundant sensors, the capability was developed to evaluate the health (or validity) of the independent measurements. A suite of Sensor Data Quality (SDQ) algorithms is responsible for assessing the angular rate data from the redundant sensors. When failures are detected, SDQ will take the appropriate action and disqualify or remove faulted sensors from forward processing. Additionally, the SDQ algorithms contain logic for down-selecting the angular rate data used by the GNC software from the set of healthy measurements. This paper explores the trades and analyses that were performed in selecting a set of robust fault-detection algorithms included in the GN&C flight software. These trades included both an assessment of hardware-provided health and status data as well as an evaluation of different algorithms based on time-to-detection, type of failures detected, and probability of detecting false positives. We then provide an overview of the algorithms used for both fault-detection and measurement down selection. We next discuss the role of trajectory design, flexible-body models, and vehicle response to off-nominal conditions in setting the detection thresholds. Lastly, we present lessons learned from software integration and hardware-in-the-loop testing.

Park, Thomas↗

Sensor Data Quality and Angular Rate Down-Selection Algorithms on SLS EM-1

The NASA Space Launch System Block 1 launch vehicle is equipped with an Inertial Navigation System (INS) and multiple Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGA) that are used in the Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) algorithms. The INS provides the inertial position, velocity, and attitude of the vehicle along with both angular rate and specific force measurements. Additionally, multiple sets of co-located rate gyros supply angular rate data. The collection of angular rate data, taken along the launch vehicle, is used to separate out vehicle motion from flexible body dynamics. Since the system architecture uses redundant sensors, the capability was developed to evaluate the health (or validity) of the independent measurements. A suite of Sensor Data Quality (SDQ) algorithms is responsible for assessing the angular rate data from the redundant sensors. When failures are detected, SDQ will take the appropriate action and disqualify or remove faulted sensors from forward processing. Additionally, the SDQ algorithms contain logic for down-selecting the angular rate data used by the GN&C software from the set of healthy measurements. This paper provides an overview of the algorithms used for both fault-detection and measurement down selection.

Park, Thomas↗