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Peatland hydrology across scale: a probabilistic framework for confronting variability, heterogeneity, and uncertainty (Final Report)

Our project aimed to guide the representations of peatland hydrology and water-carbon feedbacks within Earth System Models, by improving process understanding and developing parsimonious models that elucidate the effects of hydroclimatic variability and spatial heterogeneity. Our research questions centered on the three key drivers of peatland hydrology: (1) seasonal and interannual hydroclimatic fluctuations, (2) spatial heterogeneity of peatland microtopography, and (3) hydrological connectivity across landscape units within a peatland watershed. Our analyses and model testing used existing long-term datasets within the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF), with new data collected whenever necessary. To date, we have demonstrated the strong influence of water table elevations on the temperature sensitivity of CH 4 emissions, using a newly developed eddy covariance dataset spanning eleven years at MEF. Specifically, higher water tables dampen the increase in CH 4 emissions in the spring as well as their decrease in the fall, resulting in hysteresis. These results imply that any hydroclimatological changes in peatlands that shift seasonal water availability from winter to summer will increase annual CH 4 emissions, even if soil temperature remains unchanged. To further investigate water table elevation change within the peatland microtopography, we installed automated water table gauges across four bog-forest transects (the “lagg”) in two peatland watersheds at MEF, which are hotspots of intense biogeochemical activity. These measurements will give us new information about the extent of lagg expansion and contraction during snowmelt and high intensity rainfall events, as well as the directionality of water and nutrient flow into the bog from the surrounding forests. Finally, we investigated the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex during early spring – a critical period where water table is elevated from snowmelt – using extended hydrological records from MEF (e.g., snow and frost depths, water table elevations, streamflow). The importance of thermal and wintertime processes within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was determined through sensitivity analyses. Results from data analyses show that (i) streamflow has decreased over decades likely due to increased evapotranspiration rates (despite no detectable trends in precipitation), (ii) spring streamflow generation is controlled by a sequence of fill-and-spill pathways from the snowpack to the stream through peatland water stores, and (iii) frost depth is a key explanatory variable for the timing and magnitude of streamflow. These results suggest that frost plays an important role in connecting surface water storage in peatlands to stream outlets, and that the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex can mediate the sensitivity of hydrological responses to climate variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface soil temperature and water content from warming experiment located at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Colorado, 2015 to 2019

This data package consists of soil temperature and soil water content sensor data from the warming experiment near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. Data range is from summer 2015 to summer 2019, when the warming manipulation was terminated. The location of the warming experiment is in the upper montane life zone and consists of meadow vegetation with a mixture of sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), forb species (Erigeron speciosus, Helianthella quinquenervis, Lathyrus lanszwertii), and graminoid species (Festuca thurberi, Carex spps). Early studies showed that the heating treatment led to earlier snowmelt as well as warmer and drier surface soils, and changes in the functional composition of aboveground biomass favoring sagebrush over forb species (Harte and Shaw, 1995). These changes were mainly observed in the upper, naturally drier zone for the experimental plots. More recent observations of aboveground biomass, soil carbon, and microbial composition require concurrent information about the abiotic environment for interpretation and extrapolation to process-based models. This data package provides the plot- and zone-level abiotic context for the final years of the experiment and consists of csv files with hourly soil temperature (WM_ST.csv) and soil water content (WM_SWC.csv).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2019

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2019. Images were captured from early spring (4 April) through to mid fall (30 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour, then from 2019-06-27 to 2019-10-02 images were recorded every 10 minutes, then at hourly intervals until the end of data collection on 2019-10-30. Files were renamed with the date and time of the image. jpg images have been compressed in *.tar.gz format (5.6 GB). Closer fields of view (northeasterly) were also captured using 4 Wingscapes TimelapseCam cameras mounted on a mast on the sled shed. These cameras were operated from 2019-06-23 to 2019-09-25, with images recorded every 30 minutes from 9:00 to 16:30 Alaska daylight time (AKDT, UTC-8). Individual jpg images have been compressed in zip format for each camera and also presented as mp4 timelapse movies.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2021

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2021. Images were captured from early spring (1 April) through to mid fall (22 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour, then from 2021-07-09 images were recorded every 10 minutes until the end of data collection on 2021-10-22. Images have been combined in *.zip format (6.1 GB). Closer fields of view (northeasterly) were also captured using 4 Wingscapes TimelapseCam cameras mounted on a mast on the sled shed. These cameras were operated from 2021-06-19 to 2021-09-22, with images recorded every 30 minutes from 9:00 to 16:30 Alaska daylight time (AKDT, UTC-8). Individual jpg images from each camera have been combined in zip format. The data package includes a metadata document with example fields of view from each camera (*.pdf). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2020

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2020. Images were captured from early spring (14 April) through to late fall (10 November). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images (*.jpg) have been combined into *.zip format (1.9 GB) and the data package includes a metadata document with example fields of view from the camera (*.pdf).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2017

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Barrow (now Utqiagvik), Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the BNL TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2017. Images were captured from early spring (24 April) through to late fall (15 November). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every 10 minutes. jpg images have been compressed in *.tar.gz format (12.1 GB) and additional information in *.pdf and *.txt files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the BNL TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2018. Images were captured from early spring (13 April) through to mid fall (18 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour until 16 June, and then every 10 minutes. Files were renamed with the date and time of the image. jpg images have been compressed in *.tar.gz format (7.9 GB). Different fields of view (northeasterly) were also captured using 3 Wingscapes TimelapseCam cameras mounted on a mast on the sled shed. Images were recorded from 21 June to 24 September, 2018, at 30 minute intervals, from 11:00 - 14:30, Alaska daylight time (AKDT, UTC-8). Movie files (.mp4) of each Wingscapes camera dataset. Additional metadata included in *.pdf and *.csv files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variability in observed stable water isotopes in snowpack across a mountainous watershed in Colorado

In this study, isotopic information from 81 snowpits was collected over a 5-year period in a large, Colorado watershed. Data spans gradients in elevation, aspect, vegetation, and seasonal climate. They are combined with overlapping campaigns for water isotopes in precipitation and snowmelt, and a land-surface model for detailed estimates of snowfall and climate at sample locations. Snowfall isotopic inputs, describe the majority of δ18O snowpack variability. Aspect is a secondary control, with slightly more enriched conditions on east and north facing slopes. This is attributed to preservation of seasonally enriched snowfall and vapour loss in the early winter. Sublimation, expressed by decreases in snowpack d-excess in comparison to snowfall contributions, increases at low elevation and when seasonal temperature and solar radiation are high. At peak snow accumulation, post-depositional fractionation appears to occur in the top 25 ± 14% of the snowpack due to melt-freeze redistribution of lighter isotopes deeper into the snowpack and vapour loss to the atmosphere during intermittent periods of low relative humidity and high windspeed. Relative depth of fractionation increases when winter daytime temperatures are high and winter precipitation is low. Once isothermal, snowpack isotopic homogenization and enrichment was observed with initial snowmelt isotopically depleted in comparison to snowpack and enriching over time. The rate of δ18O increase (d-excess decrease) in snowmelt was 0.02‰ per day per 100-m elevation loss. Isotopic data suggests elevation dictates snowpack and snowmelt evolution by controlling early snow persistence (or absence), isotopic lapse rates in precipitation and the ratio of energy to snow availability. Hydrologic tracer studies using stable water isotopes in basins of large topographic relief will require adjustment for these elevational controls to properly constrain stream water sourcing from snowmelt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparisons of Montane Snow Water Equivalent Projections: Calculating Total Snow Mass in Regions with Projection Agreement and Divergence in the Western United States

Montane snowpack is a vital source of water in the western United States. Here, we use a large-ensemble approach to evaluate the agreement across 124 snow water equivalent (SWE) projections with statistically downscaled forcing between end-of-century (2076–95) and early twenty-first century (2106–35) periods. Comparisons were performed on dates corresponding with the end of winter (15 April) and midspring snowmelt (15 May) in five western U.S. domains. Using 1) the percent change to end-of-century SWE across different ensembles of snow projections and 2) the shift between early twenty-first century and end-of-century SWE distributions for each snow projection, we identified relationships between projections that were consistent across each domain. In low to midelevations, end-of-century SWE decreases were 48% and larger on 15 April. These regions had projected changes to SWE that were both high confidence and in relative agreement across projections. Despite this, the majority of 15 April SWE volume existed in higher elevations where the magnitude and direction (positive or negative) of SWE changes were most uncertain. The results of this study show that large-ensemble approaches can be used to measure coherence between snow projections and identify 1) the highest confidence changes to future snow water resources and 2) the locations and periods where and when improvements to snow projections would most benefit estimates of future snow water resources.

Climate models↗

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Primary Productivity (NDVI) of Coastal Alaskan Tundra: Decreased Vegetation Growth Following Earlier Snowmelt

In the Arctic, earlier snowmelt and longer growing seasons due to warming have been hypothesized to increase vegetation productivity. Using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from both field and satellite measurements as an indicator of vegetation phenology and productivity, we monitored spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation growth for a coastal wet sedge tundra site near Barrow, Alaska over three growing seasons (2000-2002). Contrary to expectation, earlier snowmelt did not lead to increased productivity. Instead, productivity was associated primarily with precipitation and soil moisture, and secondarily with growing degree days, which, during this period, led to reduced growth in years with earlier snowmelt. Additional moisture effects on productivity and species distribution, operating over a longer time scale, were evident in spatial NDVI patterns associated with microtopography. Lower, wetter regions dominated by graminoids were more productive than higher, drier locations having a higher percentage of lichens and mosses, despite the earlier snowmelt at the more elevated sites. These results call into question the oft-stated hypothesis that earlier arctic growing seasons will lead to greater vegetation productivity. Rather, they agree with an emerging body of evidence from recent field studies indicating that early-season, local environmental conditions, notably moisture and temperature, are primary factors determining arctic vegetation productivity. For this coastal arctic site, early growing season conditions are strongly influenced by microtopography, hydrology, and regional sea ice dynamics, and may not be easily predicted from snowmelt date or seasonal average air temperatures alone. Our comparison of field to satellite NDVI also highlights the value of in-situ monitoring of actual vegetation responses using field optical sampling to obtain detailed information on surface conditions not possible from satellite observations alone.

Growing↗

Montana Water Resources: Developing a Composite Moisture Index Utilizing NASA Earth Observations for Drought Monitoring in the Missouri River Basin

The Missouri River Basin provides irrigation water for a substantial part of the domestic agricultural sector within the United States. Drought events pose a significant threat to the economic livelihoods of dependent individuals, industries, and ecosystems (e.g. farmers, local tribes, hydroelectric power, wildlife). In 2017 alone, the Missouri River Basin experienced a severe drought that resulted in a $2.6 billion loss to the U.S. Northern Plains. In response to such events, organizations throughout the basin, such as the Montana Climate Office, have dedicated efforts for drought monitoring and communicating relevant information to local stakeholders. In an effort to aid regional decision-making capabilities, the project team partnered with the Montana Climate Office, NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Missouri Basin River Forecast Center, and NOAA Regional Climate Services, Central Region to create a monthly Composite Moisture Index (CMI) that relies on NASA Earth observations from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. From these satellites, as well as the NOAA NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center’s Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), our team aggregated climate datasets including soil moisture, snow cover, snow depth, and snow water equivalent to compute a CMI that indicates regional moisture conditions during the winter months. The March CMI values produced over the Missouri River headwater subbasin strongly correlate (r = 0.75) with spring and early summer stream discharge, demonstrating the use of this metric to indicate moisture conditions for the snowmelt and growing seasons.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Montana Water Resources: Developing a Composite Moisture Index Utilizing NASA Earth Observations for Drought Monitoring in Montana and the Missouri River Basin

The Missouri River Basin provides irrigation water for a substantial part of the domestic agricultural sector within the United States. Drought events pose a significant threat to economic livelihoods of dependent individuals, industries, and ecosystems (e.g., farmers, local tribes, hydroelectric power, wildlife). In 2017 alone, the Missouri River Basin experienced a severe drought that resulted in a $2.6 billion loss to the U.S. Northern Plains. In response to such events, organizations throughout the basin, such as the Montana Climate Office, have dedicated efforts for drought monitoring and communicating relevant information to local stakeholders. In an effort to aid regional decision-making capabilities, the project team partnered with the Montana Climate Office, NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Missouri Basin River Forecast Center, and NOAA Regional Climate Services, Central Region to create a monthly Composite Moisture Index (CMI) that relies on NASA Earth observations from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. From these satellites, as well as the NOAA NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), our team aggregated climate datasets including soil moisture, snow cover, snow depth, and snow water equivalent to compute a CMI that indicates regional moisture conditions during the winter months. The March CMI values produced over the Missouri River headwater subbasin strongly correlate (r = 0.75) with spring and early summer stream discharge, demonstrating the use of this metric to indicate moisture conditions for the snowmelt and growing seasons.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

Significant stream chemistry response to temperature variations in a high-elevation mountain watershed

Abstract High-elevation mountain regions, central to global freshwater supply, are experiencing more rapid warming than low-elevation locations. High-elevation streams are therefore potentially critical indicators for earth system and water chemistry response to warming. Here we present concerted hydroclimatic and biogeochemical data from Coal Creek, Colorado in the central Rocky Mountains at elevations of 2700 to 3700 m, where air temperatures have increased by about 2 °C since 1980. We analyzed water chemistry every other day from 2016 to 2019. Water chemistry data indicate distinct responses of different solutes to inter-annual hydroclimatic variations. Specifically, the concentrations of solutes from rock weathering are stable inter-annually. Solutes that are active in soils, including dissolved organic carbon, vary dramatically, with double to triple peak concentrations occurring during snowmelt and in warm years. We advocate for consistent and persistent monitoring of high elevation streams to record early glimpse of earth surface response to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data from: “Significant stream chemistry response to temperature variations in a high-elevation mountain watershed”

High-elevation mountain regions, central to global freshwater supply, are experiencing more rapid warming than low-elevation locations. High-elevation streams are therefore potentially critical indicators for earth system and water chemistry response to warming. Here we present concerted hydroclimatic and biogeochemical data from Coal Creek, Colorado in the central Rocky Mountains at elevations of 2700 to 3700 m, where air temperatures have increased by about 2 °C since 1980. We analyzed water chemistry every other day from 2016 to 2019. Water chemistry data indicate distinct responses of different solutes to inter-annual hydroclimatic variations. Specifically, the concentrations of solutes from rock weathering are stable inter-annually. Solutes that are active in soils, including dissolved organic carbon, vary dramatically, with double to triple peak concentrations occurring during snowmelt and in warm years. We advocate for consistent and persistent monitoring of high elevation streams to record early glimpse of earth surface response to warming.1) Coal Creek stream were sampled and measured to answer the question if there is a significant stream chemistry response to climate change in high-elevation watershed2) The file contains data regarding discharge, water temperature and stream chemistry data for 2016-2019 year. Stream chemistry includes dissolved organic and inorganic carbon, chloride, nutrients, cations. The data collection efforts were carried out by the DOE-funded "Advancing a Watershed Hydro-Biogeochemical Theory: Linking Water Travel Time and Reaction Rates Under Changing Climate" project and Watershed Function SFA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data from: "Snowmelt Timing Regulates Community Composition, Phenology, and Physiological Performance of Alpine Plants"

This archive contains data that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Snowmelt Timing Regulates Community Composition, Phenology, and Physiological Performance of Alpine Plants”, by Winkler et al., 2018. Data were collected throughout the 2009 growing season on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, before the site became part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE). Geospatial files are included in this archive to provide additional locational context. The files in this data package consist of five comma-separated-values (.csv) files, one keyhole markup language (.kml) file, and two ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .csv files can be opened by Microsoft Excel, R, or any simple text-editor software, such as TextEdit (MacOS) or Notepad (Windows). The .kml files can be opened by Google Maps or Google Earth, and the .shp files are compatible with GIS softwares such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite, and QGIS.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------We asked how plant community composition, phenology, plant water relations, and photosynthetic gas exchange of alpine-restricted and wide-ranging species differ in their responses to a ca. 40-day snowmelt gradient in the Colorado Rocky mountains (Lewisia pygmaea, Sibbaldia procumbens, and Hymenoxys grandiflora were alpine-restricted and Artemisia scopulorum, Carex rupestris, and Geum rossii were wide-ranging species). To do this, we measured percent cover and flowering initiation across 20 plots varying in snowmelt timing and measured net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance in multiple individuals of each target species in these plots in 2009.As hypothesized, species richness and foliar cover increased with earlier snowmelt, due to a greater abundance of wide-ranging species present in earlier melting plots. Flowering initiation occurred earlier with earlier snowmelt for 12 out of 19 species analyzed, while flowering duration was shortened with later snowmelt for six species (all but one were wide ranging species). We observed >50% declines in net photosynthesis from July to September as soil moisture and plant water potentials declined. Early-season stomatal conductance was higher in wide-ranging species, indicating a more competitive strategy for water acquisition when soil moisture is high. Even so, there were no associated differences in photosynthesis or transpiration, suggesting no strong differences between these groups in physiology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Definition of a Technology Validation Mission for P-band Reflectometry using Signals of Opportunity

Root-Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) (moisture profile in the top meter of soil) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (total snow pack water content) are identified as priority target variables in the ESAS 2017 decadal survey [1] with critical roles in hydrology and water management. RZSM estimates are vital for understanding multiple Earth system processes and forecasting (for example, droughts [2]). Simultaneous knowledge of surface and RZSM could enable a breakthrough in estimating key unobserved hydrologic fluxes and reduce uncertainty in net ecosystem exchange (NEE), carbon balance [3] discharge estimates, and crop yield forecasts [4] .With the high albedo and insulating properties of snow, monitoring, SWE accumulation would provide a key constraint on the potential runoff during spring ablation while monitoring SWE disappearance rates would provide a key constraint on SWE partition into runoff vs. infiltration/recharge. [5] demonstrated that knowledge of early-spring SWE generally contributes most to streamflow forecast skill in the Western U.S. SWE is also a source of water storage that provides the water resources during spring snowmelt. Despite such potentially transformative contributions, accurate RZSM and SWE measurements are unattainable with current technology. While active/passive L-band methods (e.g. SMAP, SMOS) can reliably retrieve surface soil moisture in the top 5 cm of soil [6], [7]. RZSM estimates are only available through model assimilation of brightness temperatures with a radiative transfer and land surface models [8]. SWE estimation uses multi-frequency passive microwave techniques (e.g. [9]-[11]), which have significant problems with deeper snow and in forested and mountainous environments [12]. Signals of opportunity (SoOp) in P-band (200-400 MHz) is a new remote sensing technique with the capability of estimating both essential hydrologic variables, RZSM and SWE, circumventing many of the aforementioned limitations under all weather conditions day and night. SoOp is the re-utilization of existing powerful satellite transmissions within bands allocated for communications or navigation. P-band SoOp sensitivity to soil moisture has been demonstrated in an airborne experiment over Oklahoma in 2016 [13]. Recent theory [14] and experiments [15] have also confirmed that the reflection coefficient phase is proportional to SWE.

Garrison, J. L.↗

Sensitivity of Spruce/Moss Boreal Forest Net Ecosystem Productivity to Seasonal Anomalies in Weather

Abstract. A process-oriented, daily time step model of a spruce/moss boreal ecosystem simulated 1994 and 1995 productivity for a Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study site near Thompson, Manitoba. Simulated black spruce net primary productivity (NPP) was 139 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 112 in 1995; feathermoss NPP was 13.0 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 9.7 in 1995; decomposition was 126 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 130 in 1995; net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was an uptake of 26.3 g C m(exp -2)in 1994 and 2.5 in 1995. A very dry period for the first half of the 1995 summer was the major cause of that year's lower productivity. Sensitivity simulations explored the impact of 2-month long warmer, cooler, wetter, and drier spells on ecosystem productivity. Warmer summers decreased spruce NPP, moss NPP, and NEP; cooler summers had the opposite effect. Earlier snowmelt (due to either warmer spring temperatures or reduced winter precipitation) increased moss and spruce NPP; later snowmelt had the opposite effect. The largest effect on decomposition was a 5% reduction due to a drier summer. One-month droughts (April through October) were also imposed on 1975 base year weather. Early summer droughts reduced moss annual NPP by -30-40%; summer droughts reduced spruce annual NPP by 10%; late summer droughts increased moss NPP by about 20% due to reduced respiration; May to September monthly droughts reduced heterotrophic respiration by about 10%. Variability in NEP was up to roughly +/- 35%. Finally, 1975 growing season precipitation was redistributed into frequent, small rainstorms and infrequent, large rainstorms. These changes had no effect on spruce NPP. Frequent rainstorms increased decomposition by a few percent, moss NPP by 50%, and NEP by 20%. Infrequent rainstorms decreased decomposition by 5%, moss NPP by 50% and NEP by 15%. The impact of anomalous weather patterns on productivity of this ecosystem depended on their timing during the year. Multiyear data sets are necessary to understand this behavior and test these types of models.

Frolking, Steve↗

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

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