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DOE OSTI2020

Novel Membrane and Electrodeposition-Based Separation and Recovery of Rare Earth Elements from Coal Combustion Residues (Final Report)

This project developed a hydrometallurgical-based technology to extract and concentrate rare earth elements (REEs) from a representative group of coal combustion residuals (CCRs) from major coal sources in the United States. The approach for REE recovery comprises two general components: (1) Leaching of REEs from CCRs and (2) Separation of REEs from other major ions in the CCR leachate. The leaching step entails acid leaching with nitric or hydrochloric acid, and in some cases, pretreatment of CCRs with alkaline roasting prior to acid leaching. The follow-up REE recovery steps involve a series of membrane-based methods to separate and concentrate rare earth ions from other major ions in acid leachates of CCRs. These methods include liquid emulsion membranes, supported liquid membranes and electrodeposition with carbon nanotube electrochemical filters. The advantage of these separation approaches (relative to conventional approaches such as solvent extraction) is a reduction in the usage of solvents and other costly chemicals and a reduction of hazardous waste products that are challenges in conventional REE separation methods. In the testing of our process, we selected a representative set of CCR samples from our collection and performed a suite of characterization measurements (total REE content and major mineralogy). The major results of this work demonstrated that heated acid leaching could efficiently extract REEs from PRB-based coal fly ashes while the Appalachian and Illinois Basin CCRs required alkaline roasting with NaOH prior to acid leaching at room temperature. The supported liquid membrane (SLM) configuration and electrochemical deposition (ED) system yielded the most promising methods of REE recovery from the acid leachates of fly ash. Our most concentrated product to date comprised 1 wt.% (dry basis) REEs produced from an Appalachian-based fly ash leached and purified by SLM. The SLM separation process was more selective for heavy REEs over the light REEs. When SLM was combined with ED, preliminary results demonstrated that a final product of >2 wt.% REEs was possible.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparisons of the v11.1 Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) X CO2 Measurements With GGG2020 TCCON

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) is NASA's first Earth observation satellite mission dedicated to studying the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on a global scale. The observations of reflected sunlight are inverted in a retrieval algorithm to produce estimates of the dry air mole-fractions of CO 2 (X CO2 ). The OCO-2 Level 2 data release, version 11.1 (v11.1) retrievals from the Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) algorithm, includes significant improvements in the X CO2 data product compared to older OCO-2 data versions. This work compares the v11.1 X CO2 from OCO-2 against X CO2 estimates collected from a global ground-based network known as the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), OCO-2's primary validation source. The OCO-2 project provides a version of the Level 2 data product, called “lite” files that include calibrated and bias-corrected XCO2 values, accessible together with all OCO-2 data products through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). This work shows that OCO-2 X CO2 observations made between September 2014 and December 2023, after quality filtering and the application of an averaging kernel correction, agree well with coincident TCCON data for all OCO-2 observational modes of land (nadir, glint, target) and ocean (glint). The aggregated, bias-corrected, and quality-filtered absolute average bias values are less than or equal to 0.20 parts per million (ppm) globally for all OCO-2 observation modes, where the biases do not indicate a statistically significant time dependence. The land nadir/glint mode has the lowest bias value of −0.03 ± 0.85 ppm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seismic Spatial Gradients and Machine Learning-Based Classifiers for Explosion Monitoring (LDRD 218327)

This final report summarizes the work completed under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project “Seismic Spatial Gradients as a Machine Learning-Based Classifier for Explosion Monitoring.” The overarching goal of the project was to explore the efficacy of using machine learning-based classification algorithms where the input data are the spatial gradient of the seismic wavefield collected at a single point on the Earth’s surface. The methods that I describe here are in direct contrast to conventional methods of seismic discrimination which typically rely on a spatially extended network of instruments and physics-based wavefield attributes such as, for example, the ratio between $\textit{P}$ and $\textit{S}$ waves. Rather, we use the spatial gradient of the seismic wavefield observed at a single point on the Earth’s surface and data processing approaches inspired by the machine learning community. We tested two algorithms, a neural network and a modified version of principal component analysis termed Spectrally Filtered Principal Component Analysis (SFPCA). To test these algorithms, we first conducted a series of numerical tests using synthetic data and then conducted a small-scale controlled field experiment. The tests using synthetic data showed that both algorithms had high success rates on gradiometric data, even when simulated noise was added to the signal. Furthermore, we found that using seismic spatial gradients increased the performance of our discrimination algorithms when compared to using just the traditional translational motion seismic data. The tests with field data also showed a high degree of discriminative success.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

CRADA Number NFE-18-07313 with Nth Cycle, Inc. (CRADA Final Report)

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) NFE-18-07313 between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Nth Cycle Inc. focused on developing a technology for sustainable recycling of rare earth and specialty metals (e.g., Y, Co, Li; RESE), as well as bulk and precious metals from industrial manufacturing and waste streams through the use of electrochemical carbon nanotube-enabled filters. The project outcome was expected to be a stronger mechanistic understanding of the electrochemical recovery of metals from real manufacturing process streams and e-waste streams, and the development of an optimized high-throughput pilot-scale device ready for commercialization. Testing, design, and development of a v1 prototype to prove the technology was unsuccessful (we were not able to reach the go/no-go outlined in Objective 1) and we were unable to continue our redesign due to COVID-19 lockdown and no access to lab from March 2020 – until our graduation from the program.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solute chemistry for streams draining geomorphic features and varying land cover gradients in the East River watershed, Colorado

This dataset contains solute chemistry data and GPS coordinates for surface water samples collected in the East River watershed in the Elk and West Elk Ranges of Colorado from August 3rd through August 11th, 2022. Samples were collected from streams and groundwater seeps as part of a comprehensive analysis within the watershed of how different geomorphic features (such as landslides and rock glaciers) along with variations in land cover (such as the presence of vegetation) affect stream water quality in this Rocky Mountain headwater environment. This dataset includes concentrations of the following in a single csv file: fluoride, chloride, sulfate, nitrate, calcium, potassium, magnesium, sodium, silicon, and total organic carbon (TOC). All concentrations are reported in mg/L. The sulfate data in this version have been updated to account for an earlier ion chromatograph instrument method error whereby sulfate and bromide peaks overlapped in calibration solution samples, biasing calculated sulfate concentrations low by 30-50%. Sulfate data reported herein are from a re-run of the samples performed in December 2024 using a corrected instrument method. All samples were stored under refrigerated conditions and filtered on initial collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Initial Testing of Alkaline Earth Metal Ion Absorption on Crystalline Silicotitanate - 20440

The Tank Closure Cesium Removal process at the Savannah River Site (SRS) has processed aqueous tank waste using the inorganic ion exchange media IONSIV{sup TM} R9120-Ba (which is also known as Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST)). Salt-cake in Tank 10H at SRS was dissolved and processed through filters and ion exchange columns. The primary purpose of the process is to remove Cs-137 from the aqueous waste so that it can be disposed as low level waste. It is known that this inorganic media also absorbs strontium from solution, and that strontium competes with cesium ions for absorption sites. The strontium ion is actually more strongly absorbed than the cesium ion from typical tank waste. However, strontium is typically present in low concentrations so does not normally cause a significant impact. Strontium is present as both non-radioactive isotopes and the radioactive Sr-90 isotope; with the non-radioactive isotopes being much more abundant. Although the total strontium solubility is usually much lower than cesium, some tank waste compositions can have a high enough soluble strontium concentration to decrease the cesium absorption. Relatedly, some testing at SRS suggested that another alkaline earth metal, calcium, may also absorb onto CST and may decrease cesium absorption. Barium is also an important species in treatment of tank waste, but is also usually present at low concentrations. However, after the Cs-137 is absorbed onto CST, it emits a beta particle and converts to Ba-137m, which then decays to non-radioactive Ba-137 by emission of a gamma ray. If the Ba-137m were to desorb quickly, it could impact the dose rate in down-stream equipment. In order to understand the impact of these alkaline earth metals on CST, SRNL performed testing using simulants of SRS tank waste that contain soluble barium, strontium, and calcium. Testing examined both removal of the alkaline earth metals and their impact on removal of cesium. Testing involved first developing realistic waste simulant formulations and dissolving the alkaline earth metals to high enough concentrations to potentially impact the Cs absorption. Once the formulations were developed and prepared, computer modeling was used to calculate the expected Cs absorption behavior to determine if the alkaline earth metals impact the performance. Measurements of the alkaline earth metals absorption by the media is also important for disposition of spent media because of the added radionuclide inventory from the Sr-90. These initial tests are examining the general impact and will be used to determine if further testing or measurements are needed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing methods in fusion and fitting for time series construction in remote sensing-based earth observations

This study evaluates the comparative performance of spatiotemporal fusion and time-series fitting methods for constructing high-spatiotemporal-resolution remote sensing time-series data. Due to in-class similarity of fusion methods and fitting methods, we employ the Fit-FC (Fitting, spatial Filtering, and residual Compensation) model as a representative fusion method and the linear harmonic fitting model as a representative fitting method. Both Fit-FC and the linear harmonic fitting are widely used for high-spatiotemporal-resolution time-series data construction, and we modify the original Fit-FC model to enable automatic time-series fusion. To ensure data representativeness, we use 3 years (2019–2021) of Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 surface reflectance datasets and Terra MCD43A4 products. Eight experimental regions are selected worldwide to guarantee generalization of the comparative performance between fusion and fitting methods, covering diverse land-use types (cropland, developed land, forest, and grassland) and varying climatological conditions. Time-series of NDVI and surface reflectance are analyzed under both actual observations and simulated data-missing scenarios. The constructed time-series data reveals that (1) the modified Fit-FC and linear harmonic fitting model achieve excellent performance in constructing high-resolution time-series images; (2) the fusion method outperforms the fitting method in constructing time-series of NDVI and surface reflectance images in cropland-, forest-, and grassland-dominated regions; (3) both methods achieve comparable performance in developed-dominated regions; (4) the fusion method is more robust to missing data, and better captures abrupt phenological transitions under conditions of continuous missing data; (5) the fitting method is computationally more efficient, making it suitable for large-scale time-series image reconstruction. This study provides valuable insights for selecting optimal strategies to generate high-resolution time-series images across diverse application scenarios and lays a foundation for extensions to other vegetation indices or land surface variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Topography restoration in white-light interferometry using an instrument transfer function evaluated with binary pseudo-random arrays

Accurate knowledge of the instrument transfer function (ITF) is vital for topography measurements using white-light interferometry (WLI). To this end, we derive a complete set of analytical expressions for the power spectral density (PSD) of a discretely sampled binary pseudo-random array (BPRA) as a theoretical benchmark. We then determine the ITF by comparing this theoretical PSD with the measured PSD of the BPRA. For the Zygo ZeGage Pro HR with a objective, the determined ITF closely matches the nominal modulation transfer function (MTF). Accordingly, we integrate the nominal MTF into Fourier-domain restoration filters and apply them to practical WLI topography data, yielding restored topographies that show improved agreement with atomic force microscopy measurements. Overall, our integrated BPRA-based ITF measurement and filtering methodology offers a robust yet practical means of characterizing WLI performance and enhancing the accuracy of surface measurements.

Hirose, Shigenobu [Japan Agency for Marine Earth S↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects from Time Dependence of Ice Nucleus Activity for Contrasting Cloud Types

Abstract The role of time-dependent freezing of ice nucleating particles (INPs) is evaluated with the “Aerosol–Cloud” (AC) model in 1) deep convection observed over Oklahoma during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E), 2) orographic clouds observed over North California during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX), and 3) supercooled, stratiform clouds over the United Kingdom, observed during the Aerosol Properties, Processes And Influences on the Earth’s climate (APPRAISE) campaign. AC uses the dynamical core of the WRF Model and has hybrid bin–bulk microphysics and a 3D mesoscale domain. AC is validated against coincident aircraft, ground-based, and satellite observations for all three cases. Filtered concentrations of ice (>0.1–0.2 mm) agree with those observed at all sampled levels. AC predicts the INP activity of various types of aerosol particles with an empirical parameterization (EP), which follows a singular approach (no time dependence). Here, the EP is modified to represent time-dependent INP activity by a purely empirical approach, using our published laboratory observations of time-dependent INP activity. In all simulated clouds, the inclusion of time dependence increases the predicted INP activity of mineral dust particles by 0.5–1 order of magnitude. However, there is little impact on the cloud glaciation because the total ice is mostly (80%–90%) from secondary ice production (SIP) at levels warmer than about −36°C. The Hallett–Mossop process and fragmentation in ice–ice collisions together initiate about 70% of the total ice, whereas fragmentation during both raindrop freezing and sublimation contributes <10%. Overall, total ice concentrations and SIP are unaffected by time-dependent INP activity. In the simulated APPRAISE case, the main causes of persistence of long-lived clouds and precipitation are predicted to be SIP in weak embedded convection and reactivation following recirculation of dust particles in supercooled layer cloud.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Full Device Evaluation of Metal Halide Perovskite Solar Cells in Low Earth Orbit Aboard the International Space Station

This study investigates how sustained low Earth orbit (LEO) exposure affects metal halide perovskite (MHP) thin films and perovskite solar cells (PSCs). It examines samples deployed on the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) 15 and 16 missions. Five methylammonium lead iodide (MAPI) thin films are deployed on MISSE-16, each with distinct UV filters to selectively attenuate AM0 spectral bands. While post-flight optical analysis reveals that the least UV-exposed film exhibits the highest emission and lowest non-radiative recombination rate, no clear correlation is observed among the rest, and all MAPI films maintained excellent integrity throughout the mission. MISSE-15 deployed eight PSCs with diverse structures, MHP compositions, and contact materials. Post-flight analysis reveals stable, highly emissive MHPs, but damaged contacts due to ion migration, which caused loss of electrical response. The MISSE missions demonstrate MHPs' suitability for space applications, while highlighting the need for improved interfacial layers and contact materials to enhance charge carrier mobility, prevent ion migration, and improve charge carrier extraction efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of Precipitate Reactor Feed Tank (PRFT) Batches 44 and 49 from the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF)

The Savannah River Site (SRS) Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) processes a Monosodium Titanate/Sludge Solids (MST/SS) waste stream received from the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) via the Precipitate Reactor Feed Tank (PRFT). During processing, DWPF is required to provide evidence of compliance with the Waste Acceptance Product Specifications (WAPS). Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) has requested Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to analyze PRFT samples representing each SWPF salt batch for thirty-two radionuclides. Additionally, elemental analysis of PRFT slurry and MST/SS solids was performed to aid SRMC in further refinement of the inputs and assumptions used in future frit development and Material Tracking Program calculations. The analyses of PRFT Batches 44 and 49, which correspond to material from the processing of Salt Batches (StB) 12 and 11, respectively, are reported herein. The unwashed dried solids of the PRFT Batches 44 and 49 are predominately MST, ~63-59% MST. The two batches have a much higher amount of Fe, Mn, and Ni compared to all previous batches. For Batch 44 this appears to be due to the use of a sludge simulant filter aid during processing of StB 12 and for Batch 49, it is possibly due to the larger amount of insoluble solids for StB 11 in comparison to all previous salt batches. Like previous PRFT batches, a significant amount of the unwashed dried solids are alkaline earth metals. The total sulfate, in mg/kg of slurry, for PRFT Batches 44 and 49 is 119 and 139, respectively, which is well below the current sulfate concentration used in Material Tracking Program calculations and is in agreement with DWPF laboratory sulfate measurements.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Scalable Real-Time Data Assimilation Framework for Predicting Turbulent Atmosphere Dynamics

AI-based foundation models like FourCastNet, GraphCast are revolutionizing weather and climate predictions but are not yet ready for operational use. Their limitation lies in the absence of a data assimilation system to incorporate real-time Earth system observations, crucial for accurately forecasting events like tropical cyclones. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce a generic real-time data assimilation framework and demonstrate its end-to-end performance on the Frontier supercomputer. This framework comprises two primary modules: an ensemble score filter (EnSF), which significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art data assimilation method, and a vision transformer-based surrogate capable of real-time adaptation through the integration of observational data. We demonstrate both the strong and weak scaling of our framework up to 1024 GPUs on the Exascale supercomputer, Frontier. Our results not only illustrate the framework's exceptional scalability on high-performance computing systems, but also demonstrate the importance of supercomputers in real-time data assimilation for weather and climate predictions.

Lu, Dan↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Pan-Arctic Vegetation Cover (PAVC) database v1.1

The Pan-Arctic Vegetation Cover (PAVC) database contains synthesized field-data observations of vegetation cover from 978 Arctic Alaska plots with observations from 2010 to 2021. The cover datasets contain plot data at both the plant functional type (PFT) and species-level resolution, with standardized PFT definitions and species names. We synthesized publicly available point-intercept and visual estimate plots from the Arctic Vegetation Archive of Alaska, the Alaska Vegetation Plots Database, the North Slope Science Catalog, and the National Ecological Observatory Network; as well as previously unpublished data from the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic).Users will find four synthesized datasets, 4 associated data descriptor (dd) files, and 1 metadata file in the PAVC database:synthesized_species_fcover.csv contains fractional cover (fcover) for unique accepted species names, where names include vegetation identified at the family, genus, species, subspecies, and variety levels, as well as general functional types across all 5 data sources. The synthesized_species_fcover_dd.csv accompanies this dataset with header information.synthesized_pft_fcover.csv contains fcover for the following PFTs: non-vascular plants with lichen and bryophyte subcategories, trees with deciduous and evergreen subcategories, shrubs with deciduous and evergreen subcategories, graminoids (grasses), and forbs (herbaceous flowering plants) measured as total cover. Litter and “other” cover are also included as total cover. Additional “types” include water and bare ground, which were measured as top cover. The synthesized_pft_fcover_dd.csv accompanies this dataset with header information.species_pft_checklist.csv is a lookup table containing the translation from a dataset species name to an accepted species name and to a PFT. This table can be used to clarify our species to PFT adjudications, and to aid users in assigning their own PFTs. Any issues found in this checklist should be reported in the Issues tab of our github.survey_unit_information.csv contains auxiliary information about the plots synthesized in this database. It contains useful information for filtering plots of interest based on temporal, geospatial, and contextual information about the plot surveys.flmd.csv contains metadata information about each file in the database.This research was performed as a part of the NGEE Arctic project. The NGEE Arctic project was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recovering Rare Earth Elements from Coal Mine Drainage Using Industrial Byproducts: Environmental and Economic Consequences

Coal mine drainage (CMD) impairs tens of thousands of kilometers of U.S. waterways each year, in part with the leaching of low concentrations of rare earth elements (REEs). REEs are essential for modern technologies, yet economically viable natural deposits are geospatially limited, thus engendering geopolitical concerns, and their mining is energy intense and environmentally destructive. This work summarizes laboratory-scale experimentalresults of a trap-extract-precipitate (TEP) process and uses the mass and energy balances to estimate the economic costs and environmental impacts of the TEP. The TEP process uses the alkalinity and filtering capacity of stabilized flue gas desulfurization (sFGD) material or water treatment plant (WTP) sludge to remediate CMD waters and extract REEs. Passive treatment systems that use WTP sludge are cheaper than those that use sFGD material ($\$$89,300/year or $\$$86/gT-REE vs. $\$$89,800/year or $\$$278/gT-REE) and have improved environmental performance across all indicators from two different impact assessment methods. These differences are largely attributable to the larger neutralizing capacity of WTP sludge in the treatment application.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multiplexed Inertial Coalescence Filters for High-Rate Liquid-Gas Chemistry

The aim of this project is to support the development of a disruptive method for deploying liquids in liquid-gas chemical processes to transform carbon dioxide capture from flue gas and ambient air streams. The proposed project is based on the development of a novel filtration method called the Helix MICRA™ (Multiplexed Inertial Coalescence Refining Apparatus) filters. Helix MICRA™ filters are a novel, patented filter that enable high efficiency, low-pressure drop capture of droplet streams. Liquid droplets have a large net-surface area per unit volume and have correspondingly rapid mass transfer rates. By effectively capturing these droplets after deployment, we enable high-rate carbon dioxide capture from air streams unlike any other technology. This project aims at using Helix MICRA™ filters to create efficient and compact carbon dioxide capture systems that would dramatically reduce system size and capital costs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning reveals strong grid-scale dependence in the satellite N d –LWP relationship

The relationship between cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and liquid water path (LWP) is highly uncertain yet crucial for determining the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) on Earth's radiation budget. The N d -LWP relationship is examined using a machine learning (ML) random forest model applied to five years of satellite data at grid resolutions ranging from 10° to 0.05° in 12 distinct regions. In the subtropics, the shape of the N d -LWP relationship switches from an inverted-V at 1° grid-resolution to an “M” shape at 0.1° resolution with decreased $\frac{\textrm{dln⁡LWP}}{\textrm{dln⁡}N_d}$ sensitivity. Tropical and midlatitude regions generally show a more positive sensitivity. Cloud sampling and filtering also influence this slope, wherein the exclusion of thin clouds, as commonly performed to reduce retrieval uncertainty, leads to strongly negative sensitivity across all regions. Precipitation is primarily responsible for driving the strength of the sensitivity, with strong positive slopes in raining clouds and negative and/or neutral responses found in non-raining clouds. A new method to compute radiative forcing from the ML model shows a robust Twomey radiative forcing across all regions and grid resolutions. However, LWP and cloud fraction adjustments to the radiative forcing, which are ∼50 % or smaller than the Twomey effect, decrease to negligible values with higher spatial resolution data. As Earth system models move toward higher spatial resolutions in the future, evaluating the LWP and CF adjustment contributions to the radiative forcing budget at these finer resolutions will be essential for evaluation and model development.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Changepoint Detection for Non‐Gaussian Time Series

ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.

Lund, Robert [Department of Statistics University ↗

DOE OSTI2021

2021 Summer SPE Project

SPE is a project in order to develop new, more physics-based, seismic models of explosions (see Nelson et al. 2013). One key component of this effort is numerical modeling enabled by modern state-of-art code/software. Accurate modeling of the shape and amplitude of seismic waves from their generation to their propagation to remote monitoring seismic stations is important to our ability to determine the origin and strength of the source from remote recording. In this project, the modeling is performed by coupling two codes HOSS and SPECFEM3D. HOSS models the dynamic nonlinear processes happening near the explosion. SPECFEM3D computes the propagation of seismic waves as they travel through 3D complex Earth models. SPECFEM3D was modified in order to be driven by a set of time-series calculated by HOSS in lieu of a seismic source. The goal of this summer project is the investigation of several questions pertinent to the establishment of a full end-to-end modeling capability from the high-rate strain regime area to remote distances where seismic station record seismic waves generated by explosions. The investigated questions are: (1) How to perform proper filtering? Direct-solution modeling only sustains a limited range of frequency depending on the grid size. As we go from one modeling domain to the other via coupling, the mesh size is getting coarser to allow modeling at large scale but also to account for the fact that high-frequency waves do not physically travel to large distances. So filtering of the time-series generated by the near-field hydrodynamic modeling is a current practice often employed but its effects on the modeled waveforms has to be investigated. (2) Quantitative assessment of the efficiency of attenuation to remove high-frequency content of the wavefield. This assessment will allow to create meshes with a grid size appropriate to the actual physics of wave propagation for a given explosion. (3) Checking that the coupling process and the two codes respect the cylindrical symmetry that is expected in the case of a pure explosion in a half-space. (4) The effect of the state-of-stress in the near-source area on the modeled seismic waveforms. These questions will be investigated through the modeling of SPE-4P, the fourth explosion of this series because it was designed to have little interaction with the geologic surrounding and the free surface of the Earth so that it is the most explosion-like experiment, with the most symmetries to be verified.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗