Dione: Using Cubesats for Understanding How Magnetospheric Energy Input Impacts Earth’s Upper Atmosphere
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Eftyhia Zesta↗
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Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response
This paper is part of an integrated study by NASA and the NNSA to quantitatively understand the response timeframe should a threatening Earth-impacting near-Earth object (NEO) be identified. The two realistic responses considered are the use of a spacecraft functioning as either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier to deflect the approaching NEO. The choice depends on the NEO size and mass, the available response time prior to Earth impact, and the various uncertainties. Whenever practical, the kinetic impactor is the preferred approach, but various factors, such as large uncertainties or short available response time, reduce the kinetic impactor's suitability and, ultimately, eliminate its sufficiency. Herein we examine response time and the activities that occur between the time when an NEO is recognized as being a sufficient threat to require a deflection and the time when the deflection impulse is applied to the NEO. To use a kinetic impactor for successful deflection of an NEO, it is essential to minimize the reaction time and maximize the time available for the impulse delivered to the NEO by the kinetic impactor to integrate forward in time to the eventual deflection of the NEO away from Earth impact. To shorten the response time, we develop tools to survey the profile of needed spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads. We further present a vehicle design capable of either serving as a kinetic impactor, or, if the need arises, serving as a system to transport a nuclear explosive to the NEO. These results are generated by analyzing a specific case study in which the simulated Earth-impacting NEO is modeled very closely after the real NEO known as 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Bennu was selected for our case study in part because it is the best-studied of the known NEOs. It is also the destination of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, which is, at the time of this writing, enroute to Bennu following a September 2016 launch.
characterization↗
Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response
This paper is part of an integrated study by NASA and the NNSA to quantitatively understand the response timeframe should a threatening Earth-impacting near-Earth object (NEO) be identified. The two realistic responses considered are the use of a spacecraft functioning as either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier to deflect the approaching NEO. The choice depends on the NEO size and mass, the available response time prior to Earth impact, and the various uncertainties. Whenever practical, the kinetic impactor is the preferred approach, but various factors, such as large uncertainties or short available response time, reduce the kinetic impactor's suitability and, ultimately, eliminate its sufficiency. Herein we examine response time and the activities that occur between the time when an NEO is recognized as being a sufficient threat to require a deflection and the time when the deflection impulse is applied to the NEO. To use a kinetic impactor for successful deflection of an NEO, it is essential to minimize the reaction time and maximize the time available for the impulse delivered to the NEO by the kinetic impactor to integrate forward in time to the eventual deflection of the NEO away from Earth impact. To shorten the response time, we develop tools to survey the profile of needed spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads. We further present a vehicle design capable of either serving as a kinetic impactor, or, if the need arises, serving as a system to transport a nuclear explosive to the NEO. These results are generated by analyzing a specific case study in which the simulated Earth-impacting NEO is modeled very closely after the real NEO known as 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Bennu was selected for our case study in part because it is the best-studied of the known NEOs. It is also the destination of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, which is, at the time of this writing, enroute to Bennu following a September 2016 launch.
Brent W. Barbee↗
The record of impact on earth - Implications for a major Cretaceous/Tertiary impact event
Cratering mechanics suggests that if the proposed Cretaceous-Tertiary impact event occurred in the ocean, it may have been able to locally excavate the oceanic crust and bring upper mantle material to the surface, thereby creating a geophysical anomaly that has yet to be detected. If the siderophile enrichments in the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary layer denote projectile-contaminated ejecta from a major impact, the source of this material will probably be ejecta which had been accelerated upwards as the projectile penetrated the target rocks. The difficulties in defining projectile types from the siderophile anomalies in the relatively well known environment of impact melt rocks suggest that more detailed geochemistry and mineralogy will be needed before the siderophile enrichments at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary can be linked to a specific meteoritic compositional class.
Grieve, R. A. F.↗
Biophysical Impacts of Earth Greening Largely Controlled by Aerodynamic Resistance
Satellite observations show widespread increasing trends of leaf area index (LAI), known as the Earth greening. However, the biophysical impacts of this greening on land surface temperature (LST) remain unclear. Here, we quantify the biophysical impacts of Earth greening on LST from 2000 to 2014 and disentangle the contributions of different factors using a physically based attribution model. We find that 93% of the global vegetated area shows negative sensitivity of LST to LAI increase at the annual scale, especially for semiarid woody vegetation. Further considering the LAI trends (P ≤ 0.1), 30% of the global vegetated area is cooled by these trends and 5% is warmed. Aerodynamic resistance is the dominant factor in controlling Earth greening’s biophysical impacts: The increase in LAI produces a decrease in aerodynamic resistance, thereby favoring increased turbulent heat transfer between the land and the atmosphere, especially latent heat flux.
Greening↗
Research program on the Manson impact structure, Iowa
At or near the end of the Cretaceous, at least two large impact events occurred in the western hemisphere. One impact formed the 180-km diameter Chicxulub crater on the northern tip of the Yucatan peninsula. Another formed the 35-km diameter Manson structure in western Iowa. Several lines of evidence, including the chemical and isotopic composition of glass found in the K/T boundary layer at sites in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean region, the regional variation in thickness and the size of spherules in the K/T boundary layer, and indications at and near the boundary of disturbance and deposition of beds by giant waves in the Gulf of Mexico, point to Chicxulub as a major source of K/T boundary material, including a lower layer of clay at K/T boundary sites in western North America. The size, abundance, and mineral and lithic composition of shocked grains from an upper K/T boundary layer found at western North American sites, on the other hand, point to Manson as a possible source crater. More than one impact seems to be indicated by the K/T boundary stratigraphy in western North America, and present constraints on the age of the Manson structure suggest that it, as well as Chicxulub, may be a K/T boundary crater. Multiple craters produced over a relatively short interval of time are much more likely to have been formed by impact of comets rather than by impact of asteroids. Among likely mechanisms that could have produced multiple craters at or near the time of the K/T boundary are as follows: (1) splitting of a comet shortly before impact with Earth (impacts may have been spaced over about an hour), (2) fragmentation of a very large, Sun-grazing, periodic comet to form a compact stream of comets that intercepted the Earth's orbit (impacts may have been spread over about a century), and (3) perturbation of the Oort comet cloud by a passing massive object to form a comet shower in the inner solar system (impacts may have been spread over about a million years). Only in the first two cases are the impacts likely to have been close enough in time to contribute to the observed K/T boundary layers. All mechanisms could have produced many more than two craters.
Shoemaker, E. M.↗
Trade-Offs of Simplified Versus Comprehensive Representation of Mineralogy When Studying Dust Impacts on Earth’s Climate Systems
The intensity and direction of dust impacts on Earth’s climate systems depend on mineral composition. For example, the presence or absence of a few percent of iron oxides in dust will determine if dust is warming or cooling the atmosphere. Similarly, feldspar will enhance ice cloud formation, while acid gases in the atmosphere will react on the surface of dust calcite limiting acid rain. Still, most climate models use a simplified representation of dust mineralogy. They assume a fixed composition at emission which stays invariant during transport and removal. Such simplification assumes spatially and temporally constant physical and chemical properties of dust, and appears to provide satisfactory results when comparing some properties with observations. The trade-off is their lack of spatial gradients, which will fail to induce circulation, cloud and precipitation changes. The two reasons to omit mineral variations are the uncertainty of current atlases of soil mineral composition in arid regions, and, more practically, an improved runtime efficiency. The former reason is losing ground with the recent launch (July 2022) of a dedicated mission (NASA/JPL EMIT) to retrieve global soil mineralogy of dust sources at high spatial resolution. While the EMIT science team is finalizing a satisfactory global map of mineral composition of dust sources, we analyzed the interaction of dust mineralogy on radiation and its impact on the fast temperature response using different representations of mineral composition from detailed and spatially varying to simplified and globally uniform, assuming different hematite contents and methods to calculate optical properties. Our results show that resolving dust mineralogy reduces dust absorption, and results in improved agreement with observation-based single scattering albedo (SSA), radiative fluxes from CERES (the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System), and land surface temperature from CRU (Climatic Research Unit), compared to the baseline bulk dust model version. It also results in distinct radiative impacts on Earth’s climate over North Africa. From our 19-year simulation, we will show that it leads to a reduction of over 50% in net downward radiation at top of atmosphere (TOA) across the Sahara and an approximately 20% reduction over the Sahel. We will explain how the surface temperature response affects the monsoon flow from the Gulf of Guinea. Interestingly, we find similar results by simply fixing the hematite content of dust to a globally uniform value of 0.9% by volume. We will discuss the underlying reasons for such results and show that they may be unrelated to the distribution of soil mineralogy. Still, an accurate representation of soil mineralogy is necessary to better understand dust impacts on the Earth’s climate systems.
dust impacts↗
Apollo 15 impact melts, the age of Imbrium, and the Earth-Moon impact cataclysm
The early impact history of the lunar surface is of critical importance in understanding the evolution of both the primitive Moon and the Earth, as well as the corresponding populations of planetesimals in Earth-crossing orbits. Two endmember hypotheses call for greatly dissimilar impact dynamics. One is a heavy continuous (declining) bombardment from about 4.5 Ga to 3.85 Ga. The other is that an intense but brief bombardment at about 3.85 +/- Ga was responsible for producing the visible lunar landforms and for the common 3.8-3.9 Ga ages of highland rocks. The Apennine Front, the main topographic ring of the Imbrium Basin, was sampled on the Apollo 15 mission. The Apollo 15 impact melts show a diversity of chemical compositions, indicating their origin in at least several different impact events. The few attempts at dating them have generally not produced convincing ages, despite their importance. Thus, we chose to investigate the ages of melt rock samples from the Apennine Front, because of their stratigraphic importance yet lack of previous age definition.
Ryder, Graham↗
The Deflection Dilemma: Use Vs. Misuse of Technologies for Avoiding Interplanetary Collision Hazards
A system capable of deflecting a Near-Earth Object (NEO) out of a Earth-impacting trajectory could also be used to deflect a non-menacing NEO so it impacts the Earth.
Near-Earth Objects↗
Planetary Perspective on Life on Early Mars and the Early Earth
Impacts of asteroids and comets posed a major hazard to the continuous existence of early life on Mars as on the Earth. The chief danger was presented by globally distributed ejecta, which for very large impacts takes the form of transient thick rock vapor atmospheres; both planets suffered such impacts repeatedly. The exposed surface on both planets was sterilized when it was quickly heated to the temperature of condensed rock vapor by radiation and rock rain. Shallow water bodies were quickly evaporated and sterilized. Any surviving life must have been either in deep water or well below the surface.
Sleep, Norman H.↗
Fluvial erosion of impact craters: Earth and Mars
Geomorphic studies of impact structures in central Australia are being used to understand the complexities of fluvial dissection in the heavily cratered terrains of Mars. At Henbury, Northern Territory, approximately 12 small meteorite craters have interacted with a semiarid drainage system. The detailed mapping of the geologic and structural features at Henbury allowed this study to concentrate on degradational landforms. The breaching of crater rims by gullies was facilitated by the northward movement of sheetwash along an extensive pediment surface extending from the Bacon Range. South-facing crater rims have been preferentially breached because gullies on those sides were able to tap the largest amounts of runoff. At crater 6 a probable rim-gully system has captured the headward reaches of a pre-impact stream channel. The interactive history of impacts and drainage development is critical to understanding the relationships in the heavily cratered uplands of Mars. Whereas Henbury craters are younger than 4700 yrs. B.P., the Gosses Bluff structure formed about 130 million years ago. The bluff is essentially an etched central peak composed of resistant sandstone units. Fluvial erosion of this structure is also discussed.
Baker, V. R.↗
MultiLayer Clustered Sampling (MLCS) technique for near-earth asteroid impact hazard assessment
Because of planetary encounters, the motion of near-Earth asteroids is chaotic and small differences in the initial conditions tend to diverge exponentially. Linear approximations for propagating orbital uncertainties can lead to inaccurate estimates of the probability of an Earth collision. We present a novel fully nonlinear strategy for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact using sequential Monte Carlo layers. The method first explores a low-resolution layer to locate potentially relevant regions. Then, we conduct localized searches on deeper layers with higher resolution. The method retains the accuracy of brute-force Monte Carlo sampling while reducing the computational cost by only sampling relevant regions.
Farnocchia, Davide↗
Solar Activity and its Impact on Earth's Climate
The Sun's activity is now approaching an expected 2006 minimum, following the dramatic maximum of Solar Cycle 23, that included events such as the 2001 "Bastille Day" Coronal Mass Ejection, and the record-setting Oct-Nov 2003 solar flares, with their associated sunspots and variations in Total Solar Irradiance, or TSI. On Nov 4,2003 the largest X-ray flare ever detected (X-28) was observed in detail. We discuss recent satellite measurements of TSI by ACRIM 2 and 3 and Virgo, and new precision observations of TSI and SSI (Solar Spectral Irradiance) from the SORCE mission, that launched on January 25,2003. TSI variations recorded during the June 8,2004 transit of Venus show the unprecedented precision of the SORCE Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) instrument, the first of its kind to employ phase-sensitive detection. The SORCE spectral instruments, XPS, Solstice, and SIM, record the Sun's changes over a wide range of wavelengths, from 1 to more than 2000 nanometers, for the first time covering the peak of the solar spectrum, including spectral components that provide energy inputs to key components of the climate system - ultraviolet (UV) into the upper atmospheric ozone layer, infrared (IR) into the lower atmosphere and clouds, and Visible into the Oceans and biosphere. Succeeding satellite missions are planned to monitor both TSI and SSI through Cycle 24. We summarize current ideas about decadal and longer solar variability, and associated potential impacts on Earth's climate on time scales from decades to centuries, especially highlighting the role of feedbacks in the climate system.
Cahalan, Robert F.↗
NASA Space Missions to Asteroids: Protecting the Earth from NEO Impacts
There is now a general recognition of the hazard of impacts on Earth by comets and asteroids, but there is yet no consensus concerning international actions that should be taken to protect the planet from such impacts. An essential step in the analysis of the situation involves estimating the relative hazard posed by comets and asteroids of different sizes and orbits. All recent studies agree that the larger impacts pose the greater danger, and that our primary concern from the perspective of total risk should be on impacts that are large enough to cause global ecological catastrophe. These global catastrophes are also of special interest, since they (alone among natural disasters) have the potential to destroy civilization. Studies of the sensitivity of the Earth's environment suggest that the energy threshold energy for causing a global catastrophe is at about 1 million megatons, corresponding to impactor diameters of 1.5 to 2 km. This information leads naturally to a strategy of concentrating on the larger NEOs, say those 1 km or more in diameter. This is the rationale for the Spaceguard Survey, which must be the highest priority in mitigation efforts. The second question concerns the value of developing standing defensive systems that could deflect or destroy an incoming NEO. In the case of the asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter, no such system is needed, since there will be ample time (at least several decades) between the discovery of the threatening object by Spaceguard and the requirement to take action against it. In the case of objects smaller than 1 km diameter, development of defensive systems is not cost-effective; there are many greater dangers to persons and property that are much more urgent. Only in the case of large long-period comets is there a rationale for standing defense systems. The question is also raised whether the risks inherent in developing and maintaining a defense system might be greater than the impact risks it is intended to guard against. These and related issues are the focus of much current international debate on defense of the planet against NEO impacts. Meanwhile, the most critical issue remains the expansion of the telescopic search for NEOs.
Morrison, David↗
IMPACTS ON THE EARTH AND MOON RESEARCH
Impacts on the earth and moon - meteorites, comets and asteroids
IMPACT↗
Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at about 3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching about 4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid's diameter at 60 +/- 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 's potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. We cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.
Asteroid Disruption↗
The Spaceguard Survey - Protecting the earth from cosmic impacts
The conclusions of the NASA International Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop (May 1991-January 1992) are summarized. Near-earth asteroids and short-period comets constitute about 90 percent of potential earth-impacting projectiles. The greatest risk is from those with diameters greater than 1 km. The objective of a near-earth object survey is to find such objects, calculate their long-term orbital trajectories, and identify any that may impact the earth over the next several centuries. There will generally be a period of at least several decades to take corrective action if any potential earth-impactors are found. A region of space extending outward from the earth to approximately the inner edge of the main asteroid belt must be monitored. Detection can be by reflected sunlight or infrared. Though faint, the objects should be readily detectable with ground-based telescopes, and thus there is no need for a more expensive space-based system.
Morrison, David↗
An international program to protect the earth from impact catastrophe - Initial steps
Risks posed by impacting objects of various sizes are analyzed using the Spaceguard Survey, the 1992 NASA report of International Near-Earth-Object (NEO) Detection workshop. The state-of-the-art technology makes it possible to discover and track nearly all earth-crossing asteroids and short-period comets large enough to threaten global catastrophe. To deal with this hazard a long-term telescopic search is required that reaches stellar magnitude 22 in order to achieve a nearly complete census of objects 1 km or larger. A program can be performed on the basis of an international network of six telescopes of 2-3 m aperture equipped with modern CCD detectors and automatic signal processing capability.
Morrison, David↗