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The international activities being planned as part of the NASA geodynamics program are described. Methods of studying the Earth's crustal movements and deformation characteristics are discussed. The significance of the eventual formalations of earthquake predictions methods is also discussed.
Premises defining the technical and operational environment of the next decade are listed. Observational programs required to satisfy scientific objectives in the study of geopotential fields, global dynamics, tectonics, and regional tectonics/crustal hazards are defined. Capabilities and applications of the Geopotential Research Mission to be launched in the early 1990's are explored and the benefits of more detailed measurements of the Moon and planets are indicated. Earthquake prediction in the western part of the U.S. is discussed. The use of decimeter, centimeter, and millimeter systems for very long baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging, and lunar ranging techniques are discussed. Geographic regions of particular interest are identified.
The 1990 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting was held in Kanazawa, Japan from 15-21 Aug. 1990. This was the first meeting of a new series of meetings for the American Geophysical Union, and it proved to be very successful in terms of the scientific program and attendance, which included over 1,000 participants. The intent of this meeting was an effort on the part of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and several Japanese geophysical societies to gather individual Earth and space scientists at a major scientific meeting to focus on geophysical problems being studied in the western Pacific rim. The meeting was organized along the lines of a typical AGU annual meeting with some invited talks, many contributed talks, poster sessions, and with emphasis on presentations and informal discussions. The program committee consisted of scientists from both the U.S. and Japan. This meeting provided ample opportunities for U.S. and Japanese scientists to get to know each other and their works on a one-to-one basis. It was also a valuable opportunity for students studying geophysics to get together and interact with each other and with scientists from both the U.S. and Japan. There were 939 abstracts submitted to the conference and a total of 102 sessions designed as a result of the abstracts received. The topics of interest are as follows: space geodetic and observatory measurements for earthquake and tectonic studies; gravity, sea level, and vertical motion; variations in earth rotation and earth dynamics; sedimentary magnetism; global processes and precipitation; subsurface contaminant transport; U.S. Western Pacific Rim initiatives in hydrology; shelf and coastal circulation; tectonics, magmatism, and hydrothermal processes; earthquake prediction and hazard assessment; seismic wave propagation in realistic media; and dynamics and structure of plate boundaries and of the Earth's deep interior.
Neural networks are an outgrowth of interdisciplinary studies concerning the brain. These studies are guiding the field of Artificial Intelligence towards the, so-called, 6th Generation Computer. Enormous amounts of resources have been poured into R/D. Wavelet Transforms (WT) have replaced Fourier Transforms (FT) in Wideband Transient (WT) cases since the discovery of WT in 1985. The list of successful applications includes the following: earthquake prediction; radar identification; speech recognition; stock market forecasting; FBI finger print image compression; and telecommunication ISDN-data compression.
The primary objective of the STS-99 mission was to complete high resolution mapping of large sections of the Earth's surface using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), a specially modified radar system. This radar system produced unrivaled 3-D images of the Earth's Surface. This videotape shows a science press briefing. The panel members are Michael Kobrick, the SRTM Project Scientist at JPL; Thomas Henning, SRTM Program Manager at the National Imagery and Mapping Agency; Diane Evans, the Director of the Earth Sciences Program at NASA; and Marian Werner, XSAR Project Manager for the DLR, Deutschen Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt, Germany's National Aerospace Research Center. Michael Kobrick explained the mechanics of interferometric measurements of the Earth. He explained and demonstrated with a scale model the deployable mast's use. He also explained the importance of the attitude and orbit determination avionics. A brief animated video showing how four beams would give a 225 km wide swath of the Earth topography was viewed. Thomas Henning discussed some of the usage of the digital terrain elevation data for flood relief planning, cell phone station placement, military planning for command and control centers, and flight simulation. He explained that public access to the most precise data would be limited. Diane Evans described data usage in flood prediction, earthquake fault identification and archeology. Marian Werner described the German and Italian input to the project. The questions from the press concerned the time to process this data, and the reasons for the limited access to the more precise data.
At NASA, GPS is a vital resource for scientific research aimed at understanding and protecting Earth. The Agency employs the band of GPS satellites for such functions as mapping Earth s ionosphere and developing earthquake-prediction tools. Extending this worldly wisdom beyond Earth, NASA researchers are even discussing the possibility of developing global positioning satellites around Mars, in anticipation of future manned missions. Despite all of its terrestrial accomplishments, traditional GPS still has its limitations. The Space Agency is working to address these with many new advances, including a "Global Differential GPS" technology that instantaneously provides a position to within 4 inches horizontally and 8 inches vertically, anywhere on Earth. According to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, no other related system provides the same combination of accuracy and coverage. Furthermore, traditional GPS cannot communicate beyond latitudes of 75deg. That means that most of Greenland and Antarctica cannot receive GPS signals. The Global Differential GPS technology approaches this area of the world using several different GPS signals. These signals overlap to compensate for the gaps in coverage. Now, scientists working in the extreme northernmost and southernmost areas of the world can have access to the same GPS technology that other scientists around the world rely on.
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Fracture mechanics is used to develop a theory of earthquake mechanism which includes the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth. The following phenomena are predicted: slow earthquakes, multiple events, delayed multiple events (doublets), postseismic rupture growth and afterslip, foreshocks, and aftershocks. The theory predicts a nucleation stage prior to an earthquake, and suggests a physical mechanism by which one earthquake may 'trigger' another.
We review research developments on satellite detection of the convection generated stresses in the Earth for seismic hazard assessment and Earth resource survey. Particular emphasis is laid upon recent progress and results of stress calculations from which the origin and evolution of the tectonic features on Earth's surface can be scientifically addressed. An important aspect of the recent research development in tectonic stresses relative to earthquakes is the implications for earthquake forecasting and prediction. We have demonstrated that earthquakes occur on the ring of fire around the Pacific in response to the tectonic stresses induced by mantle convection. We propose a systematic global assessment of the seismic hazard based on variations of tectonic stresses in the Earth as observed by satellites. This space geodynamic approach for assessing the seismic hazard is unique in that it can pinpoint the triggering stresses for large earthquakes without ambiguities of geological structures, fault geometries, and other tectonic properties. Also, it is distinct from the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment models in the literature, which are based only on extrapolations of available earthquake data.
Abbreviated description of the objectives, experiments, spacecraft, and required schedules of a proposed NASA program blending geophysics, oceanography, and space technology in order to facilitate the prediction of earthquakes, storm surges, tidal waves, and the condition of ocean surfaces. Relevant measurements from space will be carried out by LAGEOS, SAESATS-1, GEOPAUSE, GRAVSAT, and SEASATS-2 satellites contributing data on earth dynamics, sea surface states, satellite dynamics, and earth gravity. The development of suitable mathematical models for predicting events on earth on the basis of satellite data is considered.
The mechanics of materials and material characterization are considered, taking into account micromechanics, the behavior of steel structures at elevated temperatures, and an anisotropic plasticity model for inelastic multiaxial cyclic deformation. Other topics explored are related to advances and trends in finite element technology, classical analytical techniques and their computer implementation, interactive computing and computational strategies for nonlinear problems, advances and trends in numerical analysis, database management systems and CAD/CAM, space structures and vehicle crashworthiness, beams, plates and fibrous composite structures, design-oriented analysis, artificial intelligence and optimization, contact problems, random waves, and lifetime prediction. Earthquake-resistant structures and other advanced structural applications are also discussed, giving attention to cumulative damage in steel structures subjected to earthquake ground motions, and a mixed domain analysis of nuclear containment structures using impulse functions.
Equatorial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) excitation functions and polar motion excitation functions (derived by Kalman filtering Very Long Baseline Interferometry polar motion estimates) are compared with the times of 1984-mid-1988 large earthquakes (magnitude greater than or equal to 7.5). There is a moderate correlation between times of large earthquakes and peaks in polar motion excitation. A strong correlation exists between the times of large earthquakes and large peaks in equatorial AAM amplitude; such a correlation is evident for six out of the eight large earthquakes occurring over the studied time interval. The AAM results indicate potential for the temporal prediction of large/great earthquakes.
Two fundamental concepts of fracture mechanics are used to develop a theory of the earthquake mechanism which specifically predicts observed time-dependent rupture phenomena such as slow earthquakes, postseismic rupture growth and afterslip, multiple events, foreshocks, and aftershocks. The theory also predicts that there must be a nucleation stage prior to an earthquake, and suggests a physical mechanism by which one earthquake may trigger another. Investigations show that all earthquakes must be preceded by a quasi-static slip over a portion of the rupture surfaces, although it may be difficult to detect in practice, and a study of delayed multiple events characterizes the strength of some barriers in the earth as having a stress corrosion index of about 24.
The way in which seismicity calculations which are based on the concept of fault segmentation incorporate the physics of faulting through static dislocation theory can improve earthquake recurrence statistics and hone the probabilities of hazard is shown. For the Middle America Trench, the spread parameters of the best-fitting lognormal or Weibull distributions (about 0.75) are much larger than the 0.21 intrinsic spread proposed in the Nishenko Buland (1987) hypothesis. Stress interaction between fault segments disrupts time or slip predictability and causes earthquake recurrence to be far more aperiodic than has been suggested.
A plan was developed during 1971 to determine gross tectonic plate motions along the San Andreas Fault System in California. Knowledge of the gross motion along the total fault system is an essential component in the construction of realistic deformation models of fault regions. Such mathematical models will be used in the future for studies which will eventually lead to prediction of major earthquakes. The main purpose of the experiment described is the determination of the relative velocity of the North American and the Pacific Plates. This motion being so extremely small, cannot be measured directly but can be deduced from distance measurements between points on opposite sites of the plate boundary taken over a number of years.
Papers are presented dealing with prediction and forecasting earthquakes, the Haicheng earthquake of 1975, earthquake resistivity of factory structures, and earthquake studies and actions in China.
NASA's aeronautical research not only encompasses advancing aircraft technology and aviation safety for today and the future, but it also has a branch that deals with Airborne Science. This Airborne Science branch possesses unique airborne flight vehicles (manned and unmanned) whose sole purpose is to take scientists and their experiments anywhere in the world, into nearly any climatic condition, to gather the data they need for their research. This research spans such fields as; global warming, weather analysis, air and water pollution, mineral and archaeology search, earthquake damage and prediction, and yes, hurricanes. The data we obtain will hopefully, one day, allow us to better understand our planet, its natural forces and man's interaction with them.
A verified prediction of the theory of plate tectonics is that the focal mechanisms of earthquakes on the mid-ocean ridge system indicate either normal faulting on ridge segments or strike-slip faulting on transform faults. A broad region in the southern Indian Ocean which differs from typical ridge and intraplate regimes has been identified. In this region a number of large off-ridge earthquakes have occurred in the last 20 years. The mechanisms for these events, where known, all involve normal faulting. Nine of these earthquakes have been studied in detail using a formal inversion technique based on matching synthetic body waves to observed seismograms.