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International Space Station Instmments Collect Imagery of Natural Disasters

A new focus for utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) is conducting basic and applied research that directly benefits Earth's citizenry. In the Earth Sciences, one such activity is collecting remotely sensed imagery of disaster areas and making those data immediately available through the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System, especially in response to activations of the International Charter for Space and Major Disasters (known informally as the "International Disaster Charter", or IDC). The ISS, together with other NASA orbital sensor assets, responds to IDC activations following notification by the USGS. Most of the activations are due to natural hazard events, including large floods, impacts of tropical systems, major fires, and volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Through the ISS Program Science Office, we coordinate with ISS instrument teams for image acquisition using several imaging systems. As of 1 August 2013, we have successfully contributed imagery data in support of 14 Disaster Charter Activations, including regions in both Haiti and the east coast of the US impacted by Hurricane Sandy; flooding events in Russia, Mozambique, India, Germany and western Africa; and forest fires in Algeria and Ecuador. ISS‐based sensors contributing data include the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO), the ISERV (ISS SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System) Pathfinder camera mounted in the US Window Observational Research Facility (WORF), the ISS Agricultural Camera (ISSAC), formerly operating from the WORF, and high resolution handheld camera photography collected by crew members (Crew Earth Observations). When orbital parameters and operations support data collection, ISS‐based imagery adds to the resources available to disaster response teams and contributes to the publicdomain record of these events for later analyses.

Evans, C. A.↗

AI for Earthquake Physics

The core LANL program sponsored by Office of Science, Basic Energy Science, Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences (DOE-BES-CSGB) and led by PI Johnson aims to research earthquake faults to advance fault physics and earthquake hazards. All work completed is required to be made publicly available through publications and open-source codes supporting the published results. All routines are/will-be written in open source python and applied to publicly available data sets. These routines will format data from input into models, develop and test modeling frameworks for the problems addressed, and produce figures applicable to peer-reviewed manuscripts. All work is reviewed for Los Alamos Unlimited Release before submitting to a journal. This summary encompasses recently completed work and work to be complete for the duration of the program.

Johnson, Christopher↗

Divide and conquer: separating the two probabilities in seismic phase picking

There are two fundamental probabilities in the seismic phase picking process—the probability of the existence of a seismic phase (detection probability) and the probability associated with the phase arrival time estimation (timing probability). The nearly ubiquitous approach in developing deep learning phase picking models is to use a kernel, such as a truncated Gaussian, to mask the labelled phase arrival time and train a segmentation model. Once a model is trained, the times of the peaks in the output are taken as phase arrival times (picks), and the height of the peaks are taken as ‘probability’ of the picks. Here, we show that this ‘probability’ represents neither the detection nor the timing probability because this approach forces the output to follow the shape of the kernel. We introduce an approach using two models to estimate these two distinct probabilities. We use a binary classifier with a calibrated confidence to address the detection probability and a multiclass classifier to obtain a probability mass function to address the timing probability. This new approach can make the deep learning-based phase picking process more interpretable and provide options to logically control seismic monitoring workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Applications of SLR

Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) has a rich history of development which began in the 1960s with 10 meter-level first generation systems. These systems evolved with order of magnitude improvements to the systems that now produce several millimeter single shot range precisions. What began, in part, as an interesting application of the new laser technology has become an essential component of modern, precision space geodesy, which in turn enables contributions to a variety of science areas. Modern space geodesy is the beneficiary of technological developments which have enabled precision geodetic measurements. Aside from SLR and its closely related technique, Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR), Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) has made prominent science contributions also. In recent years, the Global Positioning System (GPS) has demonstrated a rapidly growing popularity as the result of demonstrated low cost with high precision instrumentation. Other modern techniques such as DORIS have demonstrated the ability to make significant science contributions; furthermore, PRARE can be expected to contribute in its own right. An appropriate question is 'why should several techniques be financially supported'? While there are several answers, I offer the opinion that, in consideration of the broad science areas that are the benefactors of space geodesy, no single technique can meet all the requirements and/or expectations of the science areas in which space geodesy contributes or has the potential for contributing. The more well-known science areas include plate tectonics, earthquake processes, Earth rotation/orientation, gravity (static and temporal), ocean circulation, land, and ice topography, to name a few applications. It is unfortunate that the modern space geodesy techniques are often viewed as competitive, but this view is usually encouraged by funding competition, especially in an era of growing needs but diminishing budgets. The techniques are, for the most part, complementary and the ability to reduce the data to geodetic parameters from several techniques promotes confidence in the geophysical interpretations. In the following sections, the current SLR applications are reviewed in the context of the other techniques. The strengths and limitations of SLR are reviewed and speculation about the future prospects are offered.

Schutz, Bob E.↗

A Wrapper to Use a Machine-Learning-Based Algorithm for Earthquake Monitoring

Seismology is one of the main sciences used to monitor volcanic activity worldwide. Fast, efficient, and accurate seismicity detectors are crucial to assess the activity level of a volcano in near–real time and to issue timely warnings. Traditional real–time seismic processing software uses phase onset pickers followed by a phase association algorithm to declare an event and estimate its location. The pickers typically do not identify whether the detected phase is a P or S arrival, which can have a negative impact on hypocentral location quality and complicates phase association. We implemented the deep–neural–network–based method PhaseNet to identify in real time P and S seismic waves on data from one– and three–component seismometers. We tuned the Earthworm binder_ew associator module to use the phase identification from PhaseNet to detect and locate the events, which we archive in a SeisComP3 database. We assessed the performance of the algorithm by comparing the results with existing catalogs built to monitor seismic and volcanic activity in Mayotte and the Lesser Antilles region. Our algorithm, which we refer to as PhaseWorm, showed promising results in both contexts and clearly outperformed the previous automatic method implemented in Mayotte. As a result, this innovative real–time processing system is now operational for seismicity monitoring in Mayotte and Martinique.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Scientific Impact of the Exascale Computing Project

The recent arrival of the Frontier Supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory officially marked the dawn of the exascale computing era. Its successful deployment coincided with the culmination of the U.S. Department of Energy Exascale Computing Project (ECP), an ambitious, complex, and risky research and development effort that integrated contributions from a broad and diverse subset of the high-performance computing community. The success of ECP will ultimately be judged by the scientific and engineering advances that it enabled. In conclusion, this Special Issue is focused on showcasing early successes in the use of exascale resources to enable breakthroughs in key areas of science in engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Activating a Natural Fault Zone in the Swiss Alps

One major hurdle for understanding earthquake mechanics are observational limitations. Important phenomena like strain localisation, fault dilation, and fault healing are readily studied in rock mechanical laboratory experiments and with numerical models. At the scale of natural earthquakes, however, these phenomena are often unresolvable, even by state-of-the-art observatories. To overcome this limitation, we are currently building the Earthquake Physics Testbed at the Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geosciences and Geoenergies (BedrettoLab), an experimental testbed where we can activate an extensively instrumented natural fault zone via hydraulic stimulation. The goal of the Fault Activation and Earthquake Rupture (FEAR) project is to induce earthquakes of up to Mw~1.0 on this exceptionally well characterised and instrumented fault zone. Here we summarize the main scientific goals and current FEAR project status, and present first results from conducted experiments. We discuss how this large-scale experimental approach may allow us to tackle both fundamental science as well as practical questions on earthquake physics, induced seismicity and seismic hazard.

Meier, Men-Andrin↗

UAVSAR: Airborne L-band Radar for Repeat Pass Interferometry

The primary objectives of the UAVSAR Project were to: a) develop a miniaturized polarimetric L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) for use on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or piloted vehicle. b) develop the associated processing algorithms for repeat-pass differential interferometric measurements using a single antenna. c) conduct measurements of geophysical interest, particularly changes of rapidly deforming surfaces such as volcanoes or earthquakes. Two complete systems were developed. Operational Science Missions began on February 18, 2009 ... concurrent development and testing of the radar system continues.

Moes, Timothy R.↗

How earthquakes organize stress

Stress is not uniform in the Earth. Therefore, we must use natural experiments to measure the distribution of stresses and related quantities, rather than single values. For instance, dynamic triggering shows that faults are uniformly distributed over their loading cycles in Southern California. The probability that a fault ruptures across a barrier measures the in situ energy distribution. Fault roughness reflects the distribution of strength. These natural experiments produce observable distributions that are surprisingly consistent and suggest some degree of self-organization in the Earth’s crust. Once established, the functional form of the distributions can be used to track changes in response to earthquakes as well as to distinguish fundamentally different fault systems. Transient fault locking before stress release in laboratory experiments can be interpreted as a consequence of self-organization of fault stress. The robust self-organization of multiple variables in earthquake systems suggests that the most consequential mechanical outcome of earthquakes may be the redistribution of stress and the strain energy associated with it. The low friction on a fault during seismic slip as inferred by temperature measurements of the Tohoku earthquake is consistent with dissipation playing a secondary role to this redistribution process. Through stress redistribution and interaction, subduction zone faults tend to synchronize, perhaps due to their geometric simplicity, while the continental system of Southern California cannot synchronize, perhaps due to the complexity of the fault network. Earthquakes organize stress in the crust and produce a suite of well-defined, consistent distributions.

earthquakes↗

A novel method may reveal bulk metallic glass compressive ductility trends in high data rate nanoindentation

Recent methods allow novel amorphous alloy compositions to be rapidly manufactured at small scale; however, obtaining materials properties such as compressive ductility from these smaller specimens has remained a challenge. Here, we suggest a potential high-throughput nanoindentation method that may be able to rapidly characterize the relative compressive ductility between these alloys based on their serration characteristics. The properties of emergent serrations, when interpreted in a simple micromechanical stress relaxation model, may order these materials by their compressive plastic strain to failure. These results are consistent with the ordering obtained from compressed specimens as well as with model simulations, suggesting that this model may be broadly useful for interpreting compressive ductility from nanoindentation serrations. After it is validated on more materials, this new method will match the rapid pace of amorphous alloy development, thus allowing metallic glass properties to be fine-tuned for each application prior to scale prototyping.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

QuakeSim and the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory

We are developing simulation and analysis tools in order to develop a solid Earth science framework for understanding and studying active tectonic and earthquake processes. The goal of QuakeSim and its extension, the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO), is to study the physics of earthquakes using state-of-the-art modeling, data manipulation, and pattern recognition technologies. We are developing clearly defined accessible data formats and code protocols as inputs to simulations, which are adapted to high-performance computers. The solid Earth system is extremely complex and nonlinear resulting in computationally intensive problems with millions of unknowns. With these tools it will be possible to construct the more complex models and simulations necessary to develop hazard assessment systems critical for reducing future losses from major earthquakes. We are using Web (Grid) service technology to demonstrate the assimilation of multiple distributed data sources (a typical data grid problem) into a major parallel high-performance computing earthquake forecasting code. Such a linkage of Geoinformatics with Geocomplexity demonstrates the value of the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO) Grid concept, and advances Grid technology by building the first real-time large-scale data assimilation grid.

virtual observatory↗

The SMART Cables Initiative for Ocean and Geophysical Observing [Slides]

SMART Cables are becoming a reality, and have the potential to revolutionize submarine oceanographic and geophysical sensing. Pilot / demonstration projects are underway to test the technology and explore the feasibility of incorporating both in-repeater standardized sensor packets but also ancillary sensor types on external, branching nodes. The projects currently in planning will set the standard and influence the norms for the future of SMART systems. The interest of all potential stakeholders and users, and input as to needs and concerns, is welcomed as testing proceeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗