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DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Maritime Aerosol and CCN Profiles Derived From Ship₋Based Measurements Over Eastern North Pacific During MAGIC

Atmospheric aerosols are widely recognized to give rise to a substantial radiative forcing to the climate by scattering and absorbing radiation and by modifying the microphysical, lifetime, and radiative properties of clouds. During the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) over the Eastern North Pacific (ENP), the ship-based measured cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration at 0.2% supersaturation (N CCN,0.2 ) and condensation nuclei concentration (N CN ) had mean values of 116.7 and 219.4 cm ⁻3 , with the highest concentrations found closest to LA due to an increase in aerosol sources. Moving westward, both N CCN,0.2 and N CN gradually decreased until stabilizing near 100 cm ⁻3 and 200 cm ⁻3 , respectively. Using the methods proposed by Ghan and Collins (2004), https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2004)021<0387:uoisdt>2.0.co;2 and Ghan et al. (2006), https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jd005752, N CCN,0.2 profiles are retrieved using the surface measured N CCN,0.2 as a constraint. For coupled conditions, correlations between the retrieved N CCN,0.2 profiles and cloud-droplet number concentration (N C ) increase from 0.26 at the surface to 0.38 near cloud base, particularly true for non-drizzling clouds. Although the correlations are lower than expected, the percentage increase (46.2%) is encouraging. Finally, the relationships between cloud breakup (CB) and the stratocumulus to cumulus transition (SCT) with environmental conditions and associated aerosols are also studied. The decreased N CN trend east of CB is mainly caused by precipitation scavenging, while the increased N CN trend west of CB is strongly associated with the increased surface wind speed and fewer drizzle events. A further study is needed using high-resolution models to simulate these events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon over the Maritime Continent and ENSO Variability

Fire emissions from the Maritime Continent (MC) over the western tropical Pacific are strongly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), posing various climate effects to the Earth system. Here, in this study, we show that the historical biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC bb ) aerosol in the dry season from the MC are strengthened in El Niño years due to the dry conditions. The eastern Pacific type of El Niño exerts a stronger modulation in BC bb emissions over the MC region than the central Pacific type of El Niño. Based on simulations using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM), the impacts of increased BC bb emissions on ENSO variability and frequency are also investigated in this study. With BC bb emissions from the MC scaled up by a factor of 10, which enables the identification of climate response from the internal variability, the increased BC bb heats the local atmosphere and changes land–sea thermal contrast, which suppresses the westward transport of the eastern Pacific surface water. It leads to an increase in sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, which further enhances ENSO variability and increases the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events. This study highlights the potential role of BC bb emissions on extreme ENSO frequency, and this role may be increasingly important in the warming future with higher wildfire risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part II: Role of Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Forcing

Abstract In this study, we investigate how a single leading linear El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, as studied in Part I, leads to the irregular coexistence of central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, a phenomenon known as ENSO spatiotemporal diversity. This diversity is fundamentally generated by deterministic nonlinear pathways to chaos via the period-doubling route and, more prevailingly, the subharmonic resonance route with the presence of a seasonally varying basic state. When residing in the weakly nonlinear regime, the coupled system sustains a weak periodic oscillation with a mixed CP/EP pattern as captured by the linear ENSO mode. With a stronger nonlinearity effect, the ENSO behavior experiences a period-doubling bifurcation. The single ENSO orbit splits into coexisting CP-like and EP-like ENSO orbits. A sequence of period-doubling bifurcation results in an aperiodic oscillation featuring irregular CP and EP ENSO occurrences. The overlapping of subharmonic resonances between ENSO and the seasonal cycle allows this ENSO irregularity and diversity to be more readily excited. In the strongly nonlinear regime, the coupled system is dominated by regular EP ENSO. The deterministic ENSO spatiotemporal diversity is thus confined to a relatively narrow range corresponding to a moderately unstable ENSO mode. Stochastic forcing broadens this range and allows ENSO diversity to occur when the ENSO mode is weakly subcritical. A close relationship among a weakened mean zonal temperature gradient, stronger ENSO activity, and more (fewer) occurrences of EP (CP) ENSO is noted, indicating that ENSO–mean state interaction may yield ENSO regime modulations on the multidecadal time scale.

Geng, Licheng↗

DOE OSTI2022

ENSO Diversity Simulated in a Revised Cane-Zebiak Model

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon features rich sea surface temperature (SST) spatial pattern variations dominated by the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) patterns during its warm phase. Understanding such ENSO pattern diversity has been a subject under extensive research activity. To provide a framework for unveiling the fundamental dynamics of ENSO diversity, an intermediate coupled model based on the Cane-Zebiak-type framework, named RCZ, is established in this study. Compared with the original Cane-Zebiak model, RCZ consists of revised model formulation and well-tuned parameterization schemes. All model components are carefully validated against the observations via the standalone mode, in which the observed anomalous SST (wind stress) forcing is prescribed to drive the atmospheric (oceanic) component. The superiority of RCZ’s model components over those in the original Cane-Zebiak model is evidenced by their better performance in simulating the observations. Coupled simulation with RCZ satisfactorily reproduces aspects of the observed ENSO characteristics, including the spatial pattern, phase-locking, amplitude asymmetry, and, particularly, ENSO diversity/bi-modality. RCZ serves as a promising tool for studying dynamics of ENSO diversity as it resolves most of the relevant processes proposed in the literature, including atmospheric nonlinear convective heating, oceanic nonlinear dynamical heating, and the ENSO/westerly wind burst interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE Pier Filters Field Campaign Report

The focus of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) is to characterize the extent, radiative properties, aerosol interactions, and precipitation characteristics of stratocumulus clouds in the Eastern Pacific across all four seasons at a coastal location, the Scripps Pier and the Scripps Mt. Soledad sites in La Jolla, California. An important enhancement to this study will be the collection of simultaneous in-cloud aerosol and droplet measurements to investigate the differences in these cloud properties during regional polluted and clean marine conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE-Dalhousie Field Campaign Report

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE-Dalhousie Field Campaign Report

This project supported the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), which aimed to characterize the extent, radiative properties, aerosol interactions, and precipitation of stratocumulus clouds in the Eastern Pacific coastal region of La Jolla, California. Given the frequent anthropogenic aerosols emitted into this region, characterization of this important coastal cloud region and the aerosol impact on the cloud characteristics will improve the understanding of aerosol indirect effects and its representation in global climate models. This specific project deployed the fog droplet monitor (FM-120, Droplet Measurement Technologies) at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s Mt. Soledad site from 16 February 2023 to 15 February 2024. This instrument measured droplet number size spectra between 2 and 50 microns, from which droplet number concentration, liquid water content, and effective diameter were calculated. These measurements will be used to characterize the seasonal variability of clouds at Mt. Soledad and investigate differences in cloud properties under regional polluted and clean marine conditions. The collected data will soon be posted as part of the digital collection for EPCAPE data hosted by the University of California, San Diego (Russell et al. 2023).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

EPCAPE Mt. Soledad In Situ Ozone Field Campaign Report

The focus of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) is to characterize the extent, radiative properties, aerosol interactions, and precipitation characteristics of stratocumulus clouds in the Eastern Pacific Ocean across all four seasons at a coastal location, the Scripps Pier and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Mt. Soledad sites in La Jolla, California. An important enhancement in support of this study was the measurement of ozone at the Scripps Mt. Soledad site to help in distinguishing in situ sampling of air parcels originating from regional polluted and clean marine sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

EPCAPE Field: Final Campaign Report

The focus of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) was to characterize the extent, radiative properties, aerosol interactions, and precipitation characteristics of stratocumulus clouds in the Eastern Pacific across all four seasons at a coastal location. DOE ARM AMF1 with AOS was successfully deployed from February 14, 2023, through February 14, 2024, in La Jolla, California, at Scripps Pier and Mt. Soledad.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The impacts of horizontal resolution on the seasonally-dependent biases of the northeastern Pacific ITCZ in coupled climate models.

Double-ITCZ has puzzled climate model community for more than two decades. Here, we found that over the eastern Pacific, precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the NCAR CESM1 are seasonally-dependent, with positive (negative) precipitation/SST biases during boreal summer/fall (winter/spring), although the easterly wind bias persists around the year. This seasonally-dependent bias of precipitation/SST is found to be caused by the failure of the model to reproduce the climatological seasonal wind reversal of North American monsoon. During winter/spring, the climatological easterly wind dominates, so the stronger wind speed in the model enhances the evaporation and lowers the SST. It is opposite when the climatological wind turns to westerly during summer/fall. The easterly wind bias also occurs in the atmospheric model when the observation SST is prescribed, suggesting it is of atmospheric origin. Further, the easterly wind bias is mainly evident in the lower troposphere and quite independent of time, implying the effect of complex and narrow-ranged Central American topography, which is not depicted well in the coarse model resolution. When the model resolution is doubled, both SST and precipitation are improved with the reduced easterly wind bias. During boreal spring, when ITCZ bias is most significant, the northern and southern ITCZ can be improved by 29% and 18.8% respectively in the higher resolution. Finally, we suggest that these seasonally-dependent biases over the eastern Pacific are quite universal among 37 CMIP5 coupled models, and the ongoing CMIP6 project will provide a valuable opportunity to examine whether the bias can be reduced by increasing model resolution.

Song, Fengfei↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular phylogenetic reassessment of eastern Atlantic Callinectes (Brachyura, Portunidae)

Abstract Several species from the genusCallinectesare economically important, yet the number of species and their geographic distributions remain unclear. Recently, one of the American species,Callinectes larvatus, was synonymized with one of the African species,C. marginatus, makingC. marginatusthe only species of the genus regarded to be amphi-Atlantic in distribution. However, there was no formal taxonomic study to support this taxonomic change, which was in contradiction to earlier studies that had provided morphological characters to support the taxonomic separation of the eastern Atlantic species from those of western Atlantic distribution.Callinectes maracaiboensishas also been questionably resurrected. Here we present a molecular based analysis for all species ofCallinectes, using the two common mitochondrial genes 16S and 12S. Our molecular data support the presence of three eastern Atlantic, three eastern Pacific, and nine western Atlantic species. Historically, it appears that the separation of Africa and South America with the opening of the Atlantic basin gave rise to sister species distributed on opposite sides of the Atlantic Ocean. In a second isolation event, the emergence of the Panamanian isthmus resulted in pairs of geminate species distributed in eastern Pacific and western Atlantic waters.

Marine & Freshwater Biology↗

DOE OSTI2026

EPCAPE Stratiform Cloud Analysis for Radiative Properties Experiment (SCARPE) Field Campaign Report

A unique attribute of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) is the availability of an elevated secondary measurement site just 5 km from the main U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) deployment on Scripps Pier. Mount Soledad, at 250 m elevation, offers the ability to frequently measure aerosol chemical and microphysical properties within the low-level Eastern Pacific coastal stratiform clouds that the AMF is observing from below. Based on the EPCAPE experiment design to deploy three major systems on Mount Soledad—the scanning radars, the Russell aerosol mobile laboratory, and an ARM microwave radiometer (MWR)—an additional plan was made to deploy a suite of Eppley Laboratory radiometers at this site to measure the radiative response to instantaneous changes in observed aerosol properties and MWR retrieved cloud liquid water path (LWP). This supplemental field campaign was proposed as the Stratiform Cloud Analysis for Radiative Properties Experiment (SCARPE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A new pinnotherid crab of the genus Pinnixulala Palacios Theil, Cuesta & Felder, 2016 from uncertain infaunal hosts in the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a rediagnosis and updated synonymy for the polychaete symbiont Pinnixulala retinens (Rathbun, 1918) (Decapoda: Brachyura: Pinnotheridae)

Abstract A new infaunal pinnotherid crab, Pinnixulala heardin. sp., is described from muddy substrates of the middle to inner continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Molecular genetic analysis supports its separation from P. retinens (Rathbun, 1918), the only other western Atlantic member of the genus and a species most commonly found living as a symbiont of large polychaete worms. Both western Atlantic species are clearly separated from several described and undescribed populations of congeners occurring along shorelines of the eastern Pacific. We herein include a rediagnosis of P. retinens to facilitate morphological comparisons with P. heardin. sp. Unlike P. retinens, which is more common in shallow inshore waters and reaches larger sizes, the new species lacks development of a strong distally directed spine on the fourth pereopod ischium and has chelae that are at least as heavily developed as the second and third pereopods. In addition, the mature male first gonopods in P. heardin. sp. are tapered over their terminal one-third and directed distally, rather than being curved in their terminal one-third with the tips directed mesially, as they are in P. retinens. The new species is invariably collected from samples including infaunal worms and other invertebrates, but the specific hosts remain to be determined

Marine & Freshwater Biology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Physical and hydrodynamic properties of deep sea mining-generated, abyssal sediment plumes in the Clarion Clipperton Fracture Zone (eastern-central Pacific)

The anthropogenic impact of polymetallic nodule harvesting in the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone is expected to strongly affect the benthic ecosystem. To predict the long-term, industrial-scale impact of nodule mining on the deep-sea environment and to improve the reliability of the sediment plume model, information about the specific characteristics of deep-sea particles is needed. Discharge simulations of mining-related fine-grained (median diameter ≈ 20 µm) sediment plumes at concentrations of 35–500 mg L –1 (dry weight) showed a propensity for rapid flocculation within 10 to 135 min, resulting in the formation of large aggregates up to 1100 µm in diameter. The results indicated that the discharge of elevated plume concentrations (500 mg L –1 ) under an increased shear rate (G ≥ 2.4 s –1 ) would result in improved efficiency of sediment flocculation. Furthermore, particle transport model results suggested that even under typical deep-sea flow conditions (G ≈ 0.1 s –1 ), rapid deposition of particles could be expected, which would restrict heavy sediment blanketing (several centimeters) to a smaller fall-out area near the source, unless subsequent flow events resuspended the sediments. Planning for in situ tests of these model projections is underway.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Implementing and Improving CBMZ-MAM3 Chemistry and Aerosol Modules in the Regional Climate Model WRF-CAM5: An Evaluation over the Western US and Eastern North Pacific

The representation of aerosols in climate-chemistry models is important for air quality and climate change research, but it can require significant computational resources. The objective of this study was to improve the representation of aerosols in climate–chemistry models, specifically in the carbon bond mechanism, version Z (CBMZ), and modal aerosol modules with three lognormal modes (MAM3) in the WRF-CAM5 model. The study aimed to enhance the model’s chemistry capabilities by incorporating biomass burning emissions, establishing a conversion mechanism between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and secondary organic carbons (SOCs), and evaluating its performance against observational benchmarks. The results of the study demonstrated the effectiveness of the enhanced chemistry capabilities in the WRF-CAM5 model. Six simulations were conducted over the western U.S. and northeastern Pacific region, comparing the model’s performance with observational benchmarks such as reanalysis, ground-based, and satellite data. The findings revealed a significant reduction in root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for surface concentrations of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). Specifically, the model exhibited a 31% reduction in RMSE for BC concentrations and a 58% reduction in RMSE for OC concentrations. These outcomes underscored the importance of accurate aerosol representation in climate-chemistry models and emphasized the potential for improving simulation accuracy and reducing errors through the incorporation of enhanced chemistry modules in such models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Changing chemistry of particulate manganese in the near- and far-field hydrothermal plumes from 15°S East Pacific Rise and its influence on metal scavenging

Dissolved Mn(II) in the hydrothermal plume is known to be microbially oxidized to form Mn(III/IV) oxides, and the Mn oxides scavenge other trace elements in seawater. In the GEOTRACES GP16 cruise, dissolved Mn (dMn) and particulate Mn (pMn) were found to be transported over 4000 km westwards from the Southern Eastern Pacific Rise. Previous studies in this plume showed different removal rates of dMn and pMn as well as pMn size distribution between the near-field (<80 km from the ridge axis) and far-field (>80 km) plumes. In order to understand Mn cycling in these plumes, spatial distribution, oxidation states, and mineral structures of Mn in small size fraction (SSF; 0.8–51 μm) and large size fraction (LSF; >51 μm) particles from the near-field and far-field plumes were examined using micro X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (μ-XRF), X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy (XANES), chemical species mapping, and extended X-ray absorption fine-structure spectroscopy (EXAFS). In the near-field plume, pMn in the SSF is dominated by oxidized Mn with Mn(III) fractions of ~30%. They are a mixture of δ-MnO 2 and triclinic birnessites that is known to be formed as a result of autocatalytic Mn(II) oxidation at the surface of freshly-formed δ-MnO2, suggesting that both microbial and autocatalytic Mn oxidation occur in the near-field plume. The LSF pMn in the near-field plume is also oxidized and often found in large aggregates several hundreds of μm in size. These aggregates settle out in the near-field and during transport, and are not found in the far-field plume. In the far-field plume where Mn oxides are not newly formed, pMn in the SSF is oxidized, but their Mn(III) fractions are smaller than in the near-field pMn. Unlike the SSF, the far-field plume LSF pMn is dominated by reduced Mn, implying very slow aggregation of pMn in the far-field plume. The different characteristics of pMn between the near-field and far-field plumes affect its scavenging of other trace elements. In the near-field plume, Co, Mo, 231 Pa are associated with pMn, but not in the far-field plume. 231 Pa is adsorbed to pFe rather than pMn in the far-field plume, and Pb is adsorbed to pFe in the entire plume. The result shows that freshly-formed Mn oxides in the near-field plume have higher scavenging capacity than the far-field plume pMn. Our findings suggest that the mineralogical age of Mn oxides may be an important parameter that controls the scavenging of many other trace elements and isotopes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Contribution of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity to Low‐Frequency Changes in ENSO Variance

Abstract El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity is characterized based on the longitudinal location of maximum sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and amplitude in the tropical Pacific, as Central Pacific events are typically weaker than Eastern Pacific events. SSTA pattern and intensity undergo low‐frequency modulations, affecting ENSO prediction skill and remote impacts, and resulting in low‐frequency changes in ENSO variance. Yet, how different ENSO types contribute to these decadal variance changes remains unclear. Here, we decompose the low‐frequency changes of ENSO variance into contributions from ENSO diversity categories. We propose a fuzzy clustering of monthly SSTA to allow for non‐binary event category memberships, where each event can belong to different clusters. Our approach identifies two La Niña and three El Niño categories and shows that the major shift of ENSO variance in the mid‐1970s was associated with an increasing likelihood of strong La Niña and extreme El Niño events.

Geology↗