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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Disentangling natural and anthropogenic effects on benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in western US streams

Abstract Stream macroinvertebrate assemblages are shaped by natural and human‐related factors that operate through complex hierarchical pathways. Quantifying these relationships can provide additional insights into stream ecological assessment. We applied a structural equation modeling framework to evaluate hypothesized pathways by which watershed, riparian, and in‐stream factors affect benthic macroinvertebrate condition in the Western Mountains (WMT) and Xeric (XER) ecoregions in the United States. We developed a conceptual model grounded in theory, empirical evidence, and expert opinion to evaluate the following hypotheses: (1) macroinvertebrate assemblages are primarily driven by proximal, in‐stream factors (e.g., water quality and physical habitat); (2) anthropogenic land uses affect macroinvertebrates indirectly by altering in‐stream characteristics; and (3) riparian vegetation cover attenuates land use effects. We tested our model separately on three measures of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage condition: ratio of observed‐to‐expected taxonomic richness (O/E); a multimetric index (MMI); and richness of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT). In the WMT, site‐level riparian cover, in‐stream physical habitat (relative bed stability), and water chemistry (total nitrogen) were the top three predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblages, each having over two times the magnitude of effect on macroinvertebrates compared with watershed‐level predictors. In the arid XER, annual precipitation and stream flow characteristics were top predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblages and had similar magnitudes of effect as in‐stream water chemistry. Path analyses revealed that land use activities in the watershed and at the stream site degraded macroinvertebrate assemblages indirectly by altering relative bed stability, water quality, and riparian cover/complexity. Increased riparian cover was associated with greater macroinvertebrate condition by reducing land use impacts on stream flow, streambed substrate, and water quality, but the pathways differed among ecoregions. In the WMT, site‐level riparian cover affected macroinvertebrate assemblages partly through indirect pathways associated with greater streambed stability and reduced total nitrogen concentrations. In contrast, in the XER, watershed‐level riparian cover affected macroinvertebrate assemblages through greater specific stream power. Identifying the relative effects of and pathways by which natural and anthropogenic factors affect macroinvertebrates can serve as a framework for prioritizing management and conservation efforts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of removal and spatial mark‐resight models for estimating wild pig density

Density estimation is critical to effectively manage invasive species and elucidate areas of highest concern. For wild pigs (Sus scrofa), the ability to estimate density is complicated because of their variable home range sizes and social structure. Common methods for estimating density (e.g., mark-recapture) may be unsuitable in management applications because additional data needs to be collected before and after management. Removal models offer a suitable alternative to estimate density changes following management and can be applied broadly across areas where management of wild pigs is ongoing. We collected wild pig removal and camera trap data from 25 private properties ranging in size from approximately 0.5 km 2 to 95 km 2 across 3 ecoregions in South Carolina, USA, from 2020–2023. We compared factors affecting consistency and precision of property-level density estimates between removal and spatial mark-resight (SMR) models. In general, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from removal models were between 0.60 and 15.85 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.34) with a median coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.76 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.70 and 0.94. Similarly, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from SMR were between 0.22 and 30.97 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.48) with a median CV of 0.39 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.38 and 1.20. We found the precision of removal models was affected primarily by the number of wild pigs dispatched in the removal period (3 months) and the ecoregion in which they were removed. None of the covariates, including the number of recaptures (a corresponding measure of sample size), influenced precision of the SMR models, although recaptures did influence the density estimates. At the individual property level, density estimates from our 2 estimators were dissimilar from each other in approximately 80% of instances, although none of the covariates we examined influenced dissimilarity. Our results provide unique insight into how sample size affects density estimates using 2 common methods and into novel SMR models that incorporate both marked and unmarked detections. In addition, the density estimates in this study can be used as a reference for wild pig densities in common land cover types throughout the southeastern United States.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intensification differentially affects the delivery of multiple ecosystem services in subtropical and temperate grasslands

Intensification, the process of intensifying land management to enhance agricultural goods, results in “intensive” pastures that are planted with productive grasses and fertilized. These intensive pastures provide essential ecosystem services, including forage production for livestock. Understanding the synergies and tradeoffs of pasture intensification on the delivery of services across climatic regions is crucial to shape policies and incentives for better management of natural resources. Here, we investigated how grassland intensification affects key components of provisioning (forage productivity and quality), supporting (plant diversity) and regulating services (CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes) by comparing these services between intensive versus extensive pastures in subtropical and temperate pastures in the USDA Long-term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Network sites in Florida and Oklahoma, USA over multiple years. Our results suggest that grassland intensification led to a decrease in measured supporting and regulating services, but increased forage productivity in temperate pastures and forage digestibility in subtropical pastures. Intensification decreased the net CO 2 sink of subtropical pastures while it did not affect the sink capacity of temperate pastures; and it also increased environmental CH 4 emissions from subtropical pastures and reduced CH 4 uptake in temperate pastures. Intensification enhanced the global warming potential associated with C fluxes of pastures in both ecoregions. Our study demonstrates that comparisons of agroecosystems in contrasting ecoregions can reveal important drivers of ecosystem services and general or region-specific opportunities and solutions to maintaining agricultural production and reducing environmental footprints. Further LTAR network-scale comparisons of multiple ecosystem services across croplands and grazinglands intensively vs extensively managed are warranted to inform the sustainable intensification of agriculture within US and beyond. Our results highlight that achieving both food security and environmental stewardship will involve the conservation of less intensively managed pastures while adopting sustainable strategies in intensively managed pastures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Permafrost Landscape History Shapes Fluvial Chemistry, Ecosystem Carbon Balance, and Potential Trajectories of Future Change

Intensifying permafrost thaw alters carbon cycling by mobilizing large amounts of terrestrial substrate into aquatic ecosystems. Yet, few studies have measured aquatic carbon fluxes and constrained drivers of ecosystem carbon balance across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes. Here, we characterized hydrochemical and landscape controls on fluvial carbon cycling, quantified fluvial carbon fluxes, and estimated fluvial contributions to ecosystem carbon balance across 33 watersheds in four ecoregions in the continuous permafrost zone of the western Canadian Arctic: unglaciated uplands, ice-rich moraine, and organic-rich lowlands and till plains. Major ions, stable isotopes, and carbon speciation and fluxes revealed patterns in carbon cycling across ecoregions defined by terrain relief and accumulation of organics. In previously unglaciated mountainous watersheds, bicarbonate dominated carbon export (70% of total) due to chemical weathering of bedrock. In lowland watersheds, where soil organic carbon stores were largest, lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (50%) and efflux of biotic CO 2 (25%) dominated. In watersheds affected by thaw-induced mass wasting, erosion of ice-rich tills enhanced chemical weathering and increased particulate carbon fluxes by two orders of magnitude. From an ecosystem carbon balance perspective, fluvial carbon export in watersheds not affected by thaw-induced wasting was, on average, equivalent to 6–16% of estimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Finally, in watersheds affected by thaw-induced wasting, fluvial carbon export approached 60% of NEE. Because future intensification of thermokarst activity will amplify fluvial carbon export, determining the fate of carbon across diverse northern landscapes is a priority for constraining trajectories of permafrost region ecosystem carbon balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How will future climate change impact prescribed fire across the contiguous United States?

As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning prediction of connectivity, biodiversity and resilience in the Coral Triangle

Abstract Even optimistic climate scenarios predict catastrophic consequences for coral reef ecosystems by 2100. Understanding how reef connectivity, biodiversity and resilience are shaped by climate variability would improve chances to establish sustainable management practices. In this regard, ecoregionalization and connectivity are pivotal to designating effective marine protected areas. Here, machine learning algorithms and physical intuition are applied to sea surface temperature anomaly data over a twenty-four-year period to extract ecoregions and assess connectivity and bleaching recovery potential in the Coral Triangle and surrounding oceans. Furthermore, the impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on biodiversity and resilience are quantified. We find that resilience is higher for reefs north of the Equator and that the extraordinary biodiversity of the Coral Triangle is dynamic in time and space, and benefits from ENSO. The large-scale exchange of genetic material is enhanced between the Indian Ocean and the Coral Triangle during La Niña years, and between the Coral Triangle and the central Pacific in neutral conditions. Through machine learning the outstanding biodiversity of the Coral Triangle, its evolution and the increase of species richness are contextualized through geological times, while offering new hope for monitoring its future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire‐induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America

Abstract Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO 2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape‐level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat‐derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post‐fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space‐for‐time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid‐succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8–40% during June and July for 2‐ to 59‐year stands relative to pre‐fire controls. From the analysis of post‐fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long‐term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early‐ and mid‐summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long‐term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO 2 exchange without a close coupling to long‐term increases in carbon storage.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-scale assessment of a grassland productivity model

Grasslands provide many important ecosystem services globally, and projecting grassland productivity in the coming decades will provide valuable information to land managers. Productivity models can be well calibrated at local scales but generally have some maximum spatial scale in which they perform well. Here we evaluate a grassland productivity model to find the optimal spatial scale for parameterization and thus for subsequently applying it in future productivity projections for North America. We also evaluated the model on new vegetation types to ascertain its potential generality. We find the model most suitable when incorporating only grasslands, as opposed to also including agriculture and shrublands, and only in the Great Plains and eastern temperate forest ecoregions of North America. The model was not well suited to grasslands in North American deserts or northwest forest ecoregions. It also performed poorly in agriculture vegetation, likely due to management activities, and shrubland vegetation, likely because the model lacks representation of deep water pools. This work allows us to perform long-term projections in areas where model performance has been verified, with gaps filled in by future modeling efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leaf traits and canopy structure together explain canopy functional diversity: an airborne remote sensing approach

Plant functional diversity is strongly connected to photosynthetic carbon assimilation in terrestrial ecosystems. However, many of the plant functional traits that regulate photosynthetic capacity, including foliar nitrogen concentration and leaf mass per area, vary significantly between and within plant functional types and vertically through forest canopies, resulting in considerable landscape-scale heterogeneity in three dimensions. Hyperspectral imagery has been used extensively to quantify functional traits across a range of ecosystems but is generally limited to providing information for top-of-canopy leaves only. On the other hand, lidar data can be used to retrieve the vertical structure of forest canopies. Because these data are rarely collected at the same time, there are unanswered questions about the effect of forest structure on the 3-D spatial patterns of functional traits across ecosystems. In the United States, the National Ecological Observatory Network's Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP) provides an opportunity to address this structure-function relationship by collecting lidar and hyperspectral data together across a variety of ecoregions. With a fusion of hyperspectral and lidar data from the NEON AOP and field-collected foliar trait data, we assessed the impacts of forest structure on spatial patterns of N. In addition, we examine the influence of abiotic gradients and management regimes on top of canopy %N and total canopy N (i.e. the total amount of N (g/m 2 ) within a forest canopy) at a NEON site consisting of a mosaic of open longleaf pine and dense broadleaf deciduous forests. Here, our resulting maps suggest that in contrast with top-of-canopy values, total canopy N variation is dampened across this landscape resulting in relatively homogeneous spatial patterns. At the same time, we found that leaf functional diversity and canopy structural diversity showed distinct dendritic patterns related to the spatial distribution of plant functional types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Representativeness and Constituency of the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Network and Analysis of Complementarity with Existing Ecological Networks

Abstract Studies conducted at sites across ecological research networks usually strive to scale their results to larger areas, trying to reach conclusions that are valid throughout larger enclosing regions. Network representativeness and constituency can show how well conditions at sampling locations represent conditions also found elsewhere and can be used to help scale-up results over larger regions. Multivariate statistical methods have been used to design networks and select sites that optimize regional representation, thereby maximizing the value of datasets and research. However, in networks created from already established sites, an immediate challenge is to understand how well existing sites represent the range of environments in the whole area of interest. We performed an analysis to show how well sites in the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Network represent all agricultural working lands within the conterminous United States (CONUS). Our analysis of 18 LTAR sites, based on 15 climatic and edaphic characteristics, produced maps of representativeness and constituency. Representativeness of the LTAR sites was quantified through an exhaustive pairwise Euclidean distance calculation in multivariate space, between the locations of experiments within each LTAR site and every 1 km cell across the CONUS. Network representativeness is from the perspective of all CONUS locations, but we also considered the perspective from each LTAR site. For every LTAR site, we identified the region that is best represented by that particular site—its constituency—as the set of 1 km grid locations best represented by the environmental drivers at that particular LTAR site. Representativeness shows how well the combination of characteristics at each CONUS location was represented by the LTAR sites’ environments, while constituency shows which LTAR site was the closest match for each location. LTAR representativeness was good across most of the CONUS. Representativeness for croplands was higher than for grazinglands, probably because croplands have more specific environmental criteria. Constituencies resemble ecoregions but have their environmental conditions “centered” on those at particular existing LTAR sites. Constituency of LTAR sites can be used to prioritize the locations of experimental research at or even within particular sites, or to identify the extents that can likely be included when generalizing knowledge across larger regions of the CONUS. Sites with a large constituency have generalist environments, while those with smaller constituency areas have more specialized environmental combinations. These “specialist” sites are the best representatives for smaller, more unusual areas. The potential of sharing complementary sites from the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to boost representativeness was also explored. LTAR network representativeness would benefit from borrowing several NEON sites and the Sevilleta LTER site. Later network additions must include such specialist sites that are targeted to represent unique missing environments. While this analysis exhaustively considered principal environmental characteristics related to production on working lands, we did not consider the focal agronomic systems under study, or their socio-economic context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Snow-corrected vegetation indices for improved gross primary productivity assessment in North American evergreen forests

North American evergreen forests cover large areas and influence the global carbon cycle. Satellite remote sensing has been used to track the phenology of ecosystem photosynthesis of these forests by detecting variation in vegetation optical properties associated with physiological and structural features, and most of these methods have been closely tied to vegetation greenness. However, in evergreens, the application of satellite data to monitor photosynthetic phenology is often limited by the lack of sensitivity of greenness-based indices. In this study, we identified 47 evergreen forest flux sites in North America that had MODIS observation overlapping with the flux tower records. We then calculated four vegetation indices using MODIS MAIAC data (MCD19A1), including NDVI, CCI, NIRv, and kNDVI, for the 47 flux sites and evaluated relationships between gross primary productivity (GPP) and vegetation indices across the North American evergreen forests. Our results showed that snow had substantial effects on the performance of all vegetation indices in tracking GPP phenology, particularly in the early spring when rapid changes occurred to both GPP and snow cover. Furthermore, different vegetation indices were affected differently, indicating contradictory and confounding effects of snow on these indices. After correcting for the snow effects, both CCI and NIRv performed well in tracking GPP phenology, albeit for different reasons. CCI is sensitive to seasonal changes in the relative levels of chlorophyll and carotenoid pigments, which are closely tied to GPP phenology in evergreens. NIRv is sensitive to the absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and to the contribution of deciduous components to the overall optical properties. We also found that correlations between GPP and vegetation indices varied among ecoregions and climate classes. In general, regions with pronounced seasonal GPP patterns had stronger correlations between GPP and greenness-based indices than regions with weaker seasonal GPP patterns. These biome differences were less pronounced for CCI. The snow artifacts and complementary vegetation index effects reported here should be considered in any large-scale studies of GPP using reflectance-based indices from optical satellites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Network of networks: Time series clustering of AmeriFlux sites

Environmental observation networks, such as AmeriFlux, are foundational for monitoring ecosystem response to climate change, management practices, and natural disturbances; however, their effectiveness depends on their representativeness for the regions or continents. We proposed an empirical, time series approach to quantify the similarity of ecosystem fluxes across AmeriFlux sites. We extracted the diel and seasonal characteristics (i.e., amplitudes, phases) from carbon dioxide, water vapor, energy, and momentum fluxes, which reflect the effects of climate, plant phenology, and ecophysiology on the observations, and explored the potential aggregations of AmeriFlux sites through hierarchical clustering. While net radiation and temperature showed latitudinal clustering as expected, flux variables revealed a more uneven clustering with many small (number of sites < 5), unique groups and a few large (> 100) to intermediate (15–70) groups, highlighting the significant ecological regulations of ecosystem fluxes. Many identified unique groups were from under-sampled ecoregions and biome types of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), with distinct flux dynamics compared to the rest of the network. At the finer spatial scale, local topography, disturbance, management, edaphic, and hydrological regimes further enlarge the difference in flux dynamics within the groups. Nonetheless, our clustering approach is a data-driven method to interpret the AmeriFlux network, informing future cross-site syntheses, upscaling, and model-data benchmarking research. Finally, we highlighted the unique and underrepresented sites in the AmeriFlux network, which were found mainly in Hawaii and Latin America, mountains, and at under-sampled IGBP types (e.g., urban, open water), motivating the incorporation of new/unregistered sites from these groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes

This study 1) identifies the seasons and biomes that exhibit significant (1980–2019) changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI); 2) explores what types of fire behavior potentials may be contributing to changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the United States Energy Release Component (ERC) and the Ignition Component (IC); 3) provides spatiotemporal insight on how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential are responding in relation to changes in seasonal precipitation totals and seasonal mean air temperature across biomes. Time series of these fire potentials, as well as seasonal mean temperature, and seasonal precipitation totals are generated using data from the 0.25° ECMWF spatial resolution Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and the Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS). The Mann-Kendall test is then applied to identify significant spatiotemporal trends across each biome. Results indicate that the September–November season (SON) exhibits the greatest rate of increase in fire danger potential, followed by the June–August season (JJA), December, January–February season (DJF), and March–May season (MAM), and this is predominant over the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Biome, as well as all vegetation types of the temperate biomes. Similarly, the temperate biomes experience the greatest rate of increase in fire intensity potential and ignition potential, but prevalent during the DJF and MAM seasons. Furthermore, there is a significant positive correlation between fire danger potential and seasonal mean air temperature during JJA in the Northern Hemisphere for the temperate biomes in North America and Europe, as well as the Tropical and Subtropical biomes in Africa. Our analysis provides quantitative insight as to how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential have been responding to changes in seasonal mean temperature and seasonal precipitation totals across different ecoregions around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resilience in soil bacterial communities of the boreal forest from one to five years after wildfire across a severity gradient

Wildfires can represent a major disturbance to ecosystems, including soil microbial communities belowground. Furthermore, fire regimes are changing in many parts of the world, altering and often increasing fire severity, frequency, and size. The boreal forest and taiga plains ecoregions of northern Canada are characterized by naturally-occurring stand-replacing wildfires on a 40–350 year basis. We previously studied the effects of wildfire on soil microbial communities one year post-fire across 40 sites, spanning a range of burn severity. Here, we return to the same sites five years post-fire to test a series of hypotheses about the effects of fire on bacterial community composition. We ask questions on two themes: which factors control bacterial community composition during post-fire recovery, and how does the importance of different fire-responsive traits change during post-fire recovery? We find the following: Five years post-fire, vegetation community, moisture regime, pH, total carbon, texture, and burned/unburned all remained significant predictors of bacterial community composition with similar predictive value (R 2 ). Bacterial communities became more similar to unburned sites five years post-fire, across the range of severity, suggesting resilience, while general structure of co-occurrence networks remained similar one and five years post-fire. Fast growth potential, as estimated using predicted 16S rRNA copy numbers, was no longer significantly correlated with burn severity five years post-fire, indicating the importance of this trait for structuring bacterial community composition may be limited to relatively short timescales. Many taxa that were enriched in burned sites one year post-fire remained enriched five years post-fire, although the degree to which they were enriched generally decreased. Specific taxa of interest from the genera Massilia, Blastococcus, and Arthrobacter all remained significantly enriched, suggesting that they may have traits that allow them to continue to flourish in the post-fire environment, such as tolerance to increased pH or ability to degrade pyrogenic organic matter. This hypothesis-based work expands our understanding of the post-fire recovery of soil bacterial communities and raises new hypotheses to test in future studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Multiyear Gridded Data Ensemble of Surface Biogenic Carbon Fluxes for North America: Evaluation and Analysis of Results

Accurate and fine-scale estimates of biogenic carbon fluxes are critical for measuring and monitoring the biosphere's responses and feedback to the climate system. Currently available data products from flux towers and model-intercomparison projects struggle to adequately represent spatiotemporal dynamics of surface biogenic carbon fluxes, and to quantify their uncertainties, which also are crucial to atmospheric inversion systems. To address these gaps, we introduce a new perturbed-parameter model ensemble with the CASA model to estimate surface biogenic carbon fluxes at monthly and 3-hourly scales for North America at ~500-m and 5-km resolutions. We first use the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing to choose the three most sensitive parameters to be perturbed, maximum light use efficiency (E max ), optimal temperature of photosynthesis (T opt ), and temperature response of respiration (Q 10 ). The initial range for each parameter is broadly sampled for the L1 ensemble, but then we pruned E max with site-level primary productivity to derive an L2 ensemble with narrower uncertainty ranges. Ensembles are strongly correlated with site-level results at both monthly and 3-hourly scales, and the spread across L1/L2 ensemble members encompasses the range of AmeriFlux observations. Monthly variability in the L2 ensemble mean is 85% of the observed variability. The L2 ensemble outperforms diverse data products with the highest Taylor skill scores at diurnal to annual scales. Finally, the ensemble's seasonality agrees well with other models for most biome types and in high and middle latitudes, but inconsistencies are found in subtropical and tropical ecoregions and for annual totals over North America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗