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Of Actors, Cities and Energy Systems: Advancing the Transformative Potential of Urban Electrification

The electrification of transportation and the integration of electric vehicles (EVs) with buildings connected to clean grids has been touted as one of the key solutions to the global decarbonization challenge. Cities are on the frontlines of current and future electrification, as they depend on and drive electricity generation, distribution, and use. City actors also occupy a central role in the actions to enable electrification to support energy transitions in efficient, equitable, environmentally sound, and resilient ways. Currently, however, research and development on the interactions between actors, cities and energy systems is predominantly conducted in disciplinary siloes. This topical review analyzes the transformational potential of urban electrification. It focuses on efforts to electrify transportation and integrate EVs with buildings connected to a clean grid. We find that actions in these area are driving change; they are adopted by wealthier populations and on an experimental basis by specific communities. Their larger-scale growth is constrained by institutional, behavioral, and infrastructural factors. We also find that existing siloed disciplinary approaches are often incompatible with advancing holistic research. To achieve that, divergent communities of scholars need to come together to integrate their research and create broader perspectives. Through incorporation of the social sciences, these perspectives need to consider the societal limits and potentials brought to bear by human behavior and decision making. Only then can urban electrification be understood as the empirically rich and socially complex topic that it is. And only with this understanding will innovations and smart policy actions be able to tap into the transformational potential of urban electrification.

cities↗

Port of New York and New Jersey Drayage Electrification Analysis

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) evaluated the potential for drayage electrification in the Port of New York and New Jersey (PoNYNJ), with a focus on operators: Harbor Freight Transport (HF), Safeway Trucking (SWT), and International Motor Freight Inc (IMF). This report summarizes the data collection and electrification evaluation of all three drayage operators, includes detailed operational data, and identifies the performance requirements for battery electric tractors (BETs) and corresponding infrastructure operated within the context of PoNYNJ drayage operation. This report also details a methodology to evaluate opportunities, strategies, and challenges associated with future expansions of BETs in meeting PANYNJ emissions goals. The Port Authority has established a goal of achieving Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050 across all facilities, including from tenant and stakeholder sources such as drayage trucks. NREL used real-world performance data collected on the three PoNYNJ drayage operations, along with modeling and analysis tools to compare BET to diesel trucks. From March to July 2021, NREL collected 1Hz vehicle and engine data from 46 drayage trucks at the three operators totaling nearly 121,000 miles of operation, providing enough information to assess vehicle operations for electrification potential. A Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) electric truck powertrain model was validated using PoNYNJ data and scenarios were run to evaluate drayage truck electrification requirements over the real-world cycles. The first scenario examined BET viability with minimal changes to existing operations. This assumes the trucks charge when stopped for two hours or longer, have a functional battery size of 375 kWh, and can charge at 270 kilowatts (kW) average which are the specification of the commercially available Freightliner eCascadia. The second scenario looked at what operational, charging infrastructure, and BET technology changes would be needed to fully electrify. Finally, detailed analysis was run on charging rate structure to understand operational costs to the fleets. The studied drayage trucks averaged 5.1 MPG, spent roughly 9% of their energy at idle, and drove an average of 140 miles per day with a maximum daily distance of 573 miles. The FASTSim model results indicate a comparable BET would use 417 kWh of energy per day on average accounting for cargo weight, which is close to the full usable capacity of the eCascadia currently available on the market. Based on the daily average operating data, partial fleet electrification is possible with current technology. However, some specific days of operation would require over 1,600 kWh of energy due to longer distances traveled by the trucks and more intense operation. Trucks used for long distance and intense operation cannot be readily electrified with current technology without operational changes. Full adoption of BETs could reduce CO 2 emissions from these fleets by roughly 75% today, eliminating 76 metric tons of CO 2 (MTCO 2 ) per vehicle each year, which equates to 24,100 MTCO 2 per year for all three operators. Commercially available direct current fast chargers (DCFC) have charge rates up to 350 kW. Based on the average daily modeled energy use for each operator, current industrial rate structures, and the assumption of 350 kW peak charging, full drayage electrification would increase electricity consumption. In addition, peak demand usage would increase with unmanaged charging along with cost of electricity having a direct impact on cost per mile for electric vehicles. The resulting cost per mile for BETs along with comparable cost per mile for conventional diesel trucks are also examined at $\$$4.00 per gallon of diesel. It will be important for PANYNJ and the drayage operators within the PoNYNJ to consider these load impacts to their existing electrical infrastructure and devise operational strategies that avoid coincident charging of vehicles to mitigate demand charges. Despite these electricity cost increases, savings from reductions in diesel consumption will help offset the costs of this increased electricity consumption. However, prices of both electricity and diesel are subject to change based on various factors meaning the realized savings will vary over time. This shows BETs could be cost-competitive on an energy cost per mile basis for all scenarios while diesel is above $\$$3.00/gal. Further, if diesel prices dropped to the 15-year low of $2.33/gal, it would still be cost competitive to operate the EVs with electricity costs of 16.3 ¢/kWh or less.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Electrification Within Wintertime Stratiform Regions Sampled During the 2020/2022 NASA IMPACTS Field Campaign

Two nor'easter events—sampled during the NASA Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign—were examined to characterize the microphysics in relation to the underlying electrification processes within wintertime stratiform regions. A theoretical model was developed to determine whether accretion or diffusion growth regimes were preferential during periods of greatest electrification. Model simulation with electrification parameterization was used to provide supplemental context to the physical processes of in-cloud microphysics and electrification. The strongest electric fields (i.e., ∼80 V m −1 at 20 km) during the 2020 NASA IMPACTS deployment was associated with large non-rimed ice crystals colliding with each other. During the 29–30 January 2022 science flight, the NASA P-3 microphysical probe data demonstrated that non-inductive charging was possible off the coastline of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Later in the science flight, when the NASA P-3 and ER-2 were coordinating with each other, measured electric fields consistently were less than 8 V m −1 and electrification was subdued owing to reduced concentrations of graupel and large ice hydrometeors. Altogether, the in-situ observations provide evidence for the non-riming collisional charging mechanism and demonstrates that graupel and supercooled liquid water may not be necessary for weak electrification within wintertime stratiform regions. Model output from simulation of both events suggested that the main synoptic snowbands were associated with elevated hydrometeor snow charge density and electric fields.

snowfall↗

Assessing electrification readiness in U.S. single-family homes based on a nationwide survey of electrical panel capacities

Electrification of residential buildings is a key strategy for increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Central to this transition is understanding the capacity of existing electrical infrastructure—specifically electrical panels—to safely and effectively manage increased electricity demands from electrification technologies. However, comprehensive nationwide data on electrical panel capacities in U.S. single-family homes is currently lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a nationwide survey of single-family homes, collecting detailed data on electrical panel capacities, breaker slot availability, major electric and gas appliances, electrical panel models, and home characteristics such as construction year and floor area. Photographic documentation was used to verify electrical panel data and appliance information. Results show that approximately 60% of surveyed homes have electrical panels rated at ≥200 amperes (A), indicating that a significant portion of the existing housing stock can accommodate additional electric loads. However, 31% of homes possess panels rated at ≤100 A, potentially restricting their ability to adopt new electric appliances without significant upgrades. Panel capacities positively correlate with both home size and construction year, with newer and larger homes generally better suited for electrification. Homes with higher-capacity panels tend to have fewer gas appliances, reflecting a gradual shift toward electric technologies. Conversely, homes with lower-capacity panels frequently rely on multiple gas appliances, highlighting substantial electrification challenges. Additionally, approximately 3% of surveyed homes had potentially hazardous electrical panel models, emphasizing important safety considerations in the residential electrification process. Our findings underscore the need for targeted policies, financial incentives, and infrastructure investments designed specifically to address infrastructural and safety barriers, particularly in older and smaller homes, to support equitable and efficient electrification across the U.S. residential sector.

Gul, Sadia↗

Electrification potential of U.S. industrial boilers and assessment of the GHG emissions impact

Electrification is a key strategy for decarbonizing the industrial sector. Industrial process heating, which still relies heavily on fossil fuel combustion and accounts for the majority of sector wide GHG emissions, is a particularly attractive electrification target. Electrifying industrial boilers represents a cross-cutting opportunity for GHG emissions reductions, given their widespread use in most manufacturing industries. Yet, there are gaps in the understanding of the current population of conventional industrial boilers in the United States that preclude a characterization of boiler electrification's technical potential to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions. In this study, we develop an up-to-date dataset of the industrial boiler population in the U.S. and quantify the county-level electricity requirements and net changes in fuel use and GHG emissions under the current electric grid and theoretical future grid scenarios. Our results show an increase of 105 MMmtCO 2 e and 73 MMmtCO 2 e in GHG emissions from boiler electrification, with and without the replacement of byproduct fuels, respectively, under the current electric grid, and a reduction of 19 MMmtCO2e and 7 MMmtCO2e in GHG emissions under a future high renewables electric grid. GHG emissions savings are currently possible only in certain regions of the U.S. unless future grids are decarbonized. We also provide discussion that could be useful for policy makers and manufacturing facilities for advancing the electrification of industrial boilers in locations and industries toward fuel savings and GHG emissions reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Long-term impact of electrification and retrofits of the U.S residential building in diverse locations

The U.S. buildings sector contributes 30% of operational carbon emissions, with residential buildings accounting for 56%. Reducing residential carbon emissions is crucial for achieving net-zero carbon goal. While many studies examine energy efficiency retrofit (EER) and electrification, few explore their long-term impacts across diverse climates and dynamic grid clean energy penetrations, as well as their economic effects on households. Here, this study proposes a method to assess how EER and electrification affect long-term decarbonization and economics across different climates, focusing on carbon emissions, energy burden (the percentage of household income spent on energy), and payback period in four locations: Tampa, San Diego, Denver, and Great Falls. The study also introduces the concept of implicit energy burden by considering investment costs. Results show that while electrification can reduce long-term emissions with increased clean energy penetration, it may not always achieve decarbonization due to mismatches between clean energy availability and demand. In cooling-dominant locations, electrification lowers energy burden and peak demand, but in heating-dominant locations, it increases energy burden to 8.24%, raises peak demand by 632.78%, and shifts it from summer to winter. After integrating investment costs, the implicit energy burden can reach 8.35% in cold climates. For already highly electrified buildings in Denver and Great Falls, the payback period of EER measures can be shortened by up to 48.98%. The study highlights a tradeoff between decarbonization and energy burden alleviation, showing that while EER measures can reduce the energy burden, they only achieve one-quarter of the carbon emission reduction of electrification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sustainability and affordability of building electrification: A state-by-state holistic approach for multifamily buildings

This paper explores the evolving narrative of building electrification, considering its potential to solve climate change. Previous research has predominantly focused on hybrid renewable energy portfolios and increasing home pricing premiums, overlooking the perspectives of renters burdened by housing costs. Moreover, existing studies have primarily examined the effects of electrification on single-family homes and case studies, neglecting multifamily buildings and their relationship with the grid. This comprehensive study leverages calibrated building energy models to address these gaps and evaluates sustainability through carbon dioxide emissions and affordability through economic performance. The findings demonstrate significant progress in electrification since 2017, with nearly all states showing decreased energy usage in the electrified models. Environmentally, twenty-two states perform better or comparably with the electrified models in the most recent study. Economically, challenges persist, but a sensitivity analysis demonstrates how results could improve soon. Furthermore, the study discusses the outlook of electrified multifamily buildings, considering ongoing decarbonization plans for the electric grid. In three case studies, electrification demonstrates improvements in over half of the states by 2026. Overall, the research highlights the importance of expanding analysis to include multifamily buildings and emphasizes the positive impact of electrification as a viable energy, environmental, and economic solution.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Leveraging NREL's ResStock & ComStock Dataset to Evaluate Building Stock Electrification: Preprint

Residential and commercial buildings accounted for 40% of U.S. energy consumption in 2022 and represent a significant opportunity for decarbonization through energy efficiency and electrification, and for grid planning. Building stock energy modeling is a powerful tool that can evaluate what-if scenarios as utilities, municipalities, policymakers, building owners and others work towards equitable building decarbonization and climate goals. This presentation will highlight several high-impact use cases of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)'s highly granular, bottom-up building stock energy modeling tools, ResStock and ComStock. These use cases cover a wide range of project scale, from neighborhood electrification analysis and municipality long-term energy planning, to state energy code development and national policy evaluation. This presentation will showcase specific real-world applications for which ResStock and ComStock have been utilized across the country, including California codes and standards cost-effectiveness analysis, New York City affordable housing electrification cost gap analysis, and California targeted electrification and gas decommissioning analysis. For each use case, this presentation will illustrate how ResStock and ComStock played a crucial role in accurately characterizing regional building stocks, providing discrete and aggregated end-use load shapes, and calculating lifecycle consumption, emissions, and costs for a variety of building electrification strategies and scenarios. Finally, this presentation will demonstrate how the data provided by ResStock and ComStock can help unlock significant outcomes for these use cases, including but not limited to, customer bill impact, incentive and program design, and energy equity analyses.

building stock modeling↗

Electrification Analysis: All Aboard America!

This one-page highlight details the key takeaways from a project that utilized NREL's Fleet Research, Energy Data, and Insights (FleetREDI) data analysis pipeline, an electrification analysis for the Bustang motorcoach fleet operated by All Aboard America! Holdings Inc. (AAA). NREL installed logging devices and collected operational data on nine 40-foot Bustang motorcoaches operating on fixed routes from May 2022 through August 2022. The analysis determined that partial fleet electrification may be feasible with electrified motorcoach options currently on the market. While this fleet faces significant challenges to electrification given current market options due to demanding range requirements and relatively limited charging opportunities, vehicles operating on the shorter, lower-grade routes along the I-25 corridor show more immediately available electrification potential. Increases in available battery capacity and the availability of fast-charging locations along I-70 routes are likely critical for electrification of the full fleet.

AAA↗

Port Electrification Handbook: A reference to aid U.S. port energy transitions

Port electrification can take many forms, such as electrifying cargo handling equipment or deploying a microgrid to power critical port infrastructure. To help evaluate the growing challenge of increased electrification and its impacts on the system, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed this Port Electrification Handbook with support from the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity’s Microgrids R&D [research and development] program. The goals of this handbook are the following: (1) Help port operators and planners evaluate different electrification technologies; (2) Explain how these technologies could aid and impact ports and surrounding communities; and (3) Provide step-by-step considerations for port electrification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Port Electrification Handbook: A Reference to Aid U.S. Port Energy Transitions

Port electrification can take many forms, such as electrifying cargo handling equipment or deploying a microgrid to power critical port infrastructure. To help evaluate the growing challenge of increased electrification and its impacts on the system, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity’s Microgrids R&D [research and development] program created this Port Electrification Handbook through a project led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The goals of this handbook are the following: help port operators and planners evaluate different electrification technologies, explain how these technologies could aid and impact ports and surrounding communities, provide step-by-step considerations for port electrification.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Industrial Electrification Assessment Framework

Electrification refers to the process of transitioning from fuel-powered systems to electric-powered systems, or electrotechnologies. This document first provides an overview of industrial electrification, including possible advantages and common applications. Next, it provides a comprehensive, step-by-step framework for assessing the potential for electrification at an individual industrial facility. The steps in this framework include inventorying current fuel-powered systems, evaluating a manufacturing facility’s electrification readiness, and identifying, evaluating, and prioritizing strategies and technologies. This document also contains information about project implementation, and the appendices provide tools and resources to support organizations pursuing electrification.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimal Electrification Using Renewable Energies: Microgrid Installation Model with Combined Mixture k-Means Clustering Algorithm, Mixed Integer Linear Programming, and Onsset Method

Optimal planning and design of microgrids are priorities in the electrification of off-grid areas. Indeed, in one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7), the UN recommends universal access to electricity for all at the lowest cost. Several optimization methods with different strategies have been proposed in the literature as ways to achieve this goal. This paper proposes a microgrid installation and planning model based on a combination of several techniques. The programming language Python 3.10 was used in conjunction with machine learning techniques such as unsupervised learning based on K-means clustering and deterministic optimization methods based on mixed linear programming. These methods were complemented by the open-source spatial method for optimal electrification planning: onsset. Four levels of study were carried out. The first level consisted of simulating the model obtained with a cluster, which is considered based on the elbow and k-means clustering method as a case study. The second level involved sizing the microgrid with a capacity of 40 kW and optimizing all the resources available on site. The example of the different resources in the Togo case was considered. At the third level, the work consisted of proposing an optimal connection model for the microgrid based on voltage stability constraints and considering, above all, the capacity limit of the source substation. Finally, the fourth level involved a planning study of electrification strategies based mainly on microgrids according to the study scenario. The results of the first level of study enabled us to obtain an optimal location for the centroid of the cluster under consideration, according to the different load positions of this cluster. Then, the results of the second level of study were used to highlight the optimal resources obtained and proposed by the optimization model formulated based on the various technology costs, such as investment, maintenance, and operating costs, which were based on the technical limits of the various technologies. In these results, solar systems account for 80% of the maximum load considered, compared to 7.5% for wind systems and 12.5% for battery systems. Next, an optimal microgrid connection model was proposed based on the constraints of a voltage stability limit estimated to be 10% of the maximum voltage drop. The results obtained for the third level of study enabled us to present selective results for load nodes in relation to the source station node. Finally, the last results made it possible to plan electrification using different network technologies and systems in the short and long term. The case study of Togo was taken into account. The various results obtained from the different techniques provide the necessary leads for a feasibility study for optimal electrification of off-grid areas using microgrid systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Exploring Class 8 Long-Haul Truck Electrification: Key Technology Evaluation and Potential Challenges

The phenomena of global warming and climate change are encouraging more and more countries, local communities, and companies to establish carbon neutrality targets, which has very significant implications for the US trucking industry. Truck electrification helps fleets to achieve zero tailpipe emissions and macro-scale decarbonization while allowing continued business growth in response to the rapid expansion of e-commerce and shipping related to increased globalization. Here, this paper presents an analysis of Class 8 long-haul truck electrification using a commercial vehicle electrification evaluation tool and Fleet DNA drive data. The study provides new insight into the impacts of streamlined chassis, battery energy density, and superfast charging on battery capacity needs as well as implications for payload, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions for electric long-haul trucks. The study also identifies a pathway for achieving optimal long-haul truck electrification. The results show that no single technology can simultaneously achieve significant improvements in all these key areas and that a cost-effective approach requires a deliberate combination of all of these technologies. Moreover, the analysis highlights the strong evolution of vehicle and battery technologies and the excellent potential for long-haul truck electrification to achieve 100% year-round service coverage with continued technology advancement.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A numerical study of thunderstorm electrification - Model development and case study

A numerical model was developed for examining the thunderstorm electrification process in which it is assumed that the electrification is entirely due to noninductive charge transfer between colliding ice crystals and hail. Since this ice-hail charge mechanism is very dependent on particle sizes and distributions, an explicit microphysical framework is used. To maintain simplicity, the electrification model is kinematic; thus the temperature and velocity fields are input into the electrification model. The cloud model of Taylor (1989) was used to generate the temperature and velocity fields to examine the July 19, 1981, Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment thundercloud. Using these fields, the electrification model produced time-dependent ice particle concentrations, radar reflectivities, charge, and vertical electric field distributions in good general agreement with those observed. The model produced a maximum electric field strength of 1.27 kV/cm, which is on the order of that needed for lightning initiation, and this maximum occurred very close to the time of the observed discharge. Thus, the ice-hail charge mechanism appears to have played an important role in the electrical development of the July 19 cloud.

Norville, K.↗

On the Electrification of Pyrocumulus Clouds

The electrification (or lack thereof) of pyrocumulus clouds is examined for several different wildfires that occurred during 2012‐2013. For example, pyrocumulus clouds above three Colorado wildfires (Hewlett Gulch, High Park, and Waldo Canyon; all occurred during summer 2012) electrified and produced small intracloud discharges whenever the smoke plumes grew to high altitudes (over 10 km above mean sea level, or MSL). This occurred during periods of rapid wildfire growth, as indicated by the shortwave infrared channel on a geostationary satellite, as well as by incident reports. In the Hewlett Gulch case, the fire growth led to increased updrafts within the plume, as inferred by multiple‐Doppler radar syntheses, which led to the vertical development and subsequent electrification ‐ a life cycle as short as 30 minutes. The lightning, detected by a three‐dimensional lightning mapping network, was favored in high‐altitude regions (~10 km MSL) containing modest reflectivities (25 dBZ and lower), ~0 dB differential reflectivity, and reduced correlation coefficient (~0.6‐0.7). This indicated the likely presence of ice particles (crystals and aggregates, possibly rimed) mixed with ash. Though neither multiple‐Doppler nor polarimetric observations were available during the electrification of the High Park and Waldo Canyon plumes, their NEXRAD observations showed reflectivity structures consistent with Hewlett Gulch. In addition, polarimetric and multiple‐Doppler scanning of unelectrified High Park plumes indicated only irregularly shaped ash, and not ice, was present (i.e., reflectivities < 25 dBZ, differential reflectivity > 5 dB, correlation < 0.4), and there was no broaching of the 10 km altitude. Based on these results, the electrification likely was caused by ice‐based processes that did not involve significant amounts of graupel. Results for pyrocumulus clouds above notable 2013 wildfires that also experienced rapid growth (e.g., Black Forest, Yarnell Hill, West Fork, Tres Lagunas, etc.) will be compared against the 2012 cases, with special emphasis on polarimetric NEXRAD and available lightning measurements, in order to better understand the physical processes responsible for pyrocumulus electrification.

Lang, Timothy J.↗

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States

This report is one in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore potential widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. Electrification is defined as the substitution of electricity for direct combustion of non-electricity-based fuels used to provide similar services. The EFS is specifically designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in the major economic sectors of the United States, electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and economic and environmental implications of electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report being released on its own time frame.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗