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At least 37 records · Page 2

Rye as an Energy Cover Crop: Management, Forage Quality, and Revenue Opportunities for Feed and Bioenergy

Harvesting a winter rye energy cover crop (Secale cereale L.) could help sustain growing food and energy demand, provide new revenue streams, and enhance ecosystem services without inducing land-use change. A two-year field experiment with three planting methods and three N fertilization rates (0, 60, and 120 kg N ha -1 ) that produced >5.0 Mg ha -1 yr -1 of biomass was evaluated for (1) fresh and anaerobically digested rye forage quality; (2) revenue potential from renewable bioenergy, carbon markets, and digestate feed protein; and (3) potential greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets. We showed that rye can be harvested as forage for animals or anaerobically digested to produce renewable natural gas (RNG), with the residue after digestion (digestate) still available as a feed protein concentrate. Anaerobically digesting rye improved forage quality indicators. Digestion significantly decreased acid- and neutral-detergent fiber (ADF and NDF) by 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively, while significantly increasing crude protein (CP) (33.6%), total digestible nutrients (TDN) (2.0%), relative feed value (RFV) (23.6%), net energy for lactation (8.3%), maintenance (7.5%), and gain (20.0%). Using market prices for RNG, high protein feed, and GHG mitigation, potential on-farm revenue ranged from USD 307 Mg -1 and USD 502 Mg -1 dry matter with an average of USD 402 Mg -1 . However, there are substantial costs associated with RNG and the revenue potential does not represent the profitability of this system. Evaluation of the integrated system showed GHG emissions associated with rye fertilization were more than offset by the benefits of increasing yield in the 60 kg N ha -1 treatment. The overall carbon footprint of the integrated system was strongly carbon negative, confirming the potential of this strategy to sustainably intensify land use in the Midwestern United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Ground-Active Arthropod Diversity Under Energycane and Biomass Sorghum Production

Energycane and biomass sorghum are two of the most promising cellulosic energy crops in the southeastern US. Research on these two energy crops has focused mainly on biomass production, and there is a lack of knowledge on their ability to promote biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper presents results from a comprehensive study on ground-active arthropod diversity in seven sites across five states in the southeastern US (Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas). Pitfall traps were deployed four times during each crop season for energycane, biomass sorghum, and a local reference conventional crop from 2020 to 2022. Arthropod abundance (individuals/(trap × day)) values were 4.9 ± 0.46, 3.7 ± 0.18, and 2.6 ± 0.16 (mean ± stderr) for conventional crops, biomass sorghum, and energycane, respectively, with a significant difference found only between conventional crops and energycane. Individuals were identified to arthropod orders, and Hill’s diversity indices were calculated based on the number of individuals in each arthropod order instead of the number of individuals in each arthropod species. Order-based arthropod richness values were 5.3, 5.2, and 4.8 for biomass sorghum, conventional crops, and energycane, with significant difference found only between biomass sorghum and energycane. There was no significant difference in the order-based Shannon diversity and Simpson diversity between the three crop types. The effective number of arthropod orders for the two energy crops decreased from 5.0 to 3.4 to 2.9 with increasing order of diversity from arthropod richness to Shannon diversity to Simpson diversity. The explained variability by environmental factors also decreased with increasing Hill’s order of diversity. The results from this study indicate no significant advantage in order-based arthropod diversity in growing biomass sorghum and energycane. This research fills a critical knowledge gap in understanding the impacts of cellulosic energy crop production on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Yang, Yubin↗

Water Quality Effects of Economically Viable Land Use Change in the Mississippi River Basin under the Renewable Fuel Standard

Demand for biofuel production driven by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) has coincided with increased land in corn production and increasing nitrogen (N) loss to the Gulf of Mexico. Diversifying cropland with perennial energy crops (miscanthus and switchgrass) may reduce N loss and improve water quality. However, the extent of these benefits depends on the mix of biomass feedstocks (corn stover, perennials) incentivized by the RFS2 and the extent to which energy crops displace N-intensive row crops. We developed an integrated economic-biophysical model to quantify the water quality impacts of three potential policy scenarios that provided corn ethanol at levels before the RFS2 (RFS1 baseline); 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol (corn ethanol only); or 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol in addition to corn ethanol (corn + cellulosic ethanol). Our results showed that economically optimal locations for perennial energy crop production were distributed across idle cropland with lower intrinsic N loss than active cropland. We found stover removal incentivized by the RFS2 offset N loss benefits of perennial energy crops. Furthermore, this finding suggests that targeted incentives for N loss reduction are needed to supplement the RFS2 to induce displacement of N-intensive row crops with energy crops to reduce N losses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Technical Report

The Department of Energy is interested in technologies that support the sustainable production of fuels, chemicals, and other bioproducts from plant biomass, to offset the nation’s reliance on fossil resources. The plant cell wall of energy crops provides the largest reservoir of raw materials for bioproducts. However, the widespread use of plant cell walls is hampered by their complexity and resistance to breakdown. To improve the productivity and cost-effectiveness of using energy crops to generate bioproducts, the fundamental problem of deconstructing plant cell walls must be addressed. This project developed and evaluated an innovative genetic modification technology to produce strategically designed enzymes that specifically accumulate in the plant cell wall. The resulting enzyme-engineered energy crops are expected to grow normally under natural conditions but break down more quickly and easily under high temperature during the production of biobased products. As such, this plant cell wall targeting enzyme engineering effort will reduce the cost of plant cell wall deconstruction and ultimately improve the economics of bioproducts. The overall objective of this project is to develop and evaluate the in-planta enzyme engineering technology to reduce lignocellulose deconstruction cost. The concept was first validated using tobacco plant, a model plant system that is typically used in lab testing for initial concept validation. Then the enzyme optimization was validated using switchgrass, the energy crop to be used to produce bioproducts. There are three specific objectives in this Phase I project: (1) validate the enzyme optimization concept using tobacco plant, a model plant system. (2) validate the enzyme optimization concept using switchgrass. (3) techno-economic analysis (TEA) for further scale-up application. By the end of this project, in-planta enzyme engineering was validated in both tobacco and switchgrass plants, with improved enzyme activity and saccharification efficiency. The in-planta enzyme engineering in Tabacco didn’t have a significant impact on plant growth and development. Transgenic tobacco plants with in-planta cellulose degrading enzymes showed higher biomass digestibility than wild type. Gene construction and transformation in switchgrass was much longer than expected, which delayed the research progress. Besides, in-planta engineering of lignin degrading enzyme is more challenging than cellulose degrading enzyme, in terms of expression detection. Expression of lignin degrading enzyme and cellulose degrading enzyme improved biomass yield and saccharification efficiency of switchgrass, respectively. It is promising to express both genes in switchgrass for optimized overall performance. According to the results of TEA, switchgrass biomass production cost is mainly attributed to by fertility and harvesting. Biomass production profit can increase up to 10-fold depending on biomass price. The PHA production profit is also sensitive to the biomass price. The proposed technology could potentially reduce the biomass deconstruction cost from 33% to 9% of PHA revenue, making the biomass-based PHA competitive to petroleum-based polymers even in case of relatively high biomass price of biomass. Therefore, cultivation of the genetically engineered self-deconstruction switchgrass for Polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) production could benefit switchgrass grower and PHA producer with attractive profits for both sectors. This new enzyme optimization approach will be beneficial for bioindustries that use energy crops as feedstocks. It will improve the economic viability of converting energy crops to renewable products that support a sustainable society and helps address the Nation’s long-term strategic needs for renewable products and reduction of reliance on fossil resources.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Determining spatially varying profit‐maximizing management practices for miscanthus and switchgrass production in the rainfed United States

Abstract Determining optimal management practices for the profitable production of perennial energy crops is critical for scaling up production beyond experimental levels. Although many experimental field studies have examined the effects of management practices on the performance of miscanthus and switchgrass, there are no recommendations for economically optimal nitrogen (N) application rates and how they should vary spatially and with the age of the energy crop as well as on optimal rotation age of the energy crop to maximize profits. We develop a modeling framework to determine economically optimal crop management decisions and simulate the variability under various scenarios for miscanthus and switchgrass production across 2287 counties in the rainfed United States. We find that profit‐maximizing N recommendations for these crops vary across maturity stages and regions and can increase the landowner's profits compared with a uniform N rate across ages and regions. We also find that the optimal rotation for these crops is shorter than the productive physical lifespan (15–20 and 10 years for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively). Specifically, the N rate that maximizes the economic returns is negligible for miscanthus and 111 kg ha −1 for switchgrass production at age 2. The mean profit‐maximizing N rate increases with age for miscanthus, peaking at 151 kg ha −1 at age 11 before declining to 114 kg ha −1 at the optimal rotation age of 13 years while that for switchgrass is 150 kg ha −1 for middle‐aged stands and declines to 114 kg ha −1 at the optimal rotation of 8–9 years. We find that miscanthus is the most profitable energy crop in the northern region of the rainfed United States while switchgrass is most profitable in the south of the rainfed United States. Our findings are useful for improving assessments of the profitability of energy crops and guiding future management decisions by landowners.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-feedstock Supply Chain Optimization Model

This tool can be used to determine a least-cost feedstock mix from crop residue, energy crop and MSW to meet conversion specifications, while also identifying appropriate depot locations and size, given that depot can be co-located with the biorefinery or can be located in any counties in the biofinery’s supply shed.

Roni, MohammadS↗

Perennial grass bioenergy cropping systems: Impacts on soil fauna and implications for soil carbon accrual

ABSTRACT Perennial grass energy crop production is necessary for the successful and sustainable expansion of bioenergy in North America. Numerous environmental advantages are associated with perennial grass cropping systems, including their potential to promote soil carbon accrual. Despite growing research interest in the abiotic and biotic factors driving soil carbon cycling within perennial grass cropping systems, soil fauna remain a critical yet largely unexplored component of these ecosystems. By regulating microbial activity and organic matter decomposition dynamics, soil fauna influence soil carbon stability with potentially significant implications for soil carbon accrual. We begin by reviewing the diverse, predominantly indirect effects of soil fauna on soil carbon dynamics in the context of perennial grass cropping systems. Since the impacts of perennial grass energy crop production on soil fauna will mediate their potential contributions to soil carbon accrual, we then discuss how perennial grass energy crop traits, diversity, and management influence soil fauna community structure and activity. We assert that continued research into the interactions of soil fauna, microbes, and organic matter will be important for advancing our understanding of soil carbon dynamics in perennial grass cropping systems. Furthermore, explicit consideration of soil faunal effects on soil carbon can improve our ability to predict changes in soil carbon following perennial grass cropping system establishment. We conclude by addressing the major knowledge gaps that should be prioritized to better understand and model the complex connections between perennial grass bioenergy systems, soil fauna, and carbon accrual.

sustainability↗

A multi-criteria land suitability assessment of field allocation decisions for switchgrass

With the goal of evaluating biomass resource availability in certain regions in the United States, the Department of Energy, Department of Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency, national laboratories, and Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, performed a resource analysis study, 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic Availability of Feedstocks, using POLYSYS model to estimate biomass potential. The study provided county- and state-level biomass potential projections, with biomass feedstock production estimates and suitability assessment of lands acreage likely to transition to energy crops. For this analysis, we estimate biomass supply by year 2028, more specifically, lands acreage transition to switchgrass in the Midwest of the United States, across 50 counties in 3 states (Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado). We propose a multi-criteria site suitability framework, to determine the potential acreage and production for switchgrass, at the field level. Site selection criteria span agronomic and ecosystem services such as previous land cover, crop rotation, soil water holding capacity, crop productivity, field efficiency, topography, soil organic matter, soil leaching propensity, distance to surface water bodies, and soil erosivity. Efficient agricultural field selection for dedicated energy crops field allocation is critical to evaluate biomass resource availability, and it is our position that estimation at the field level would provide a more accurate and useful estimation to support an emerging bioeconomy. Using field suitability scores and county-level assessments, we model land allocation decision for energy crop in the future, estimating the spatial distribution of dynamics of energy crop adoption with priority to fields scoring the highest. Additionally, compared with POLYSYS results from the report mentioned above, our method shows good performance overall, with about 2% and 1.2% of difference in switchgrass acreage allocation and crop production, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From chromatin to crop: epigenetic innovations in bioenergy systems

Energy crops encompass a diverse array of plant species cultivated primarily as a source of biomass for energy generation and biofuel production. As such, they play a pivotal role in the transition to sustainable energy systems. However, their productivity is often limited by environmental stresses, nutrient availability, and the need for optimized yield. While traditional breeding and genetic engineering have driven improvements, challenges such as narrow genetic diversity, long development cycles, trait instability, and unexpected gene interactions remain. Epigenetics offers a largely untapped opportunity to overcome these constraints by regulating gene expression through mechanisms that are dynamic, finely tuned, and responsive to environmental and developmental cues. Epigenetic modifications including DNA methylation, histone post-translational changes, and small non-coding RNAs influence nearly all aspects of plant development and physiology, including traits central to bioenergy crops. While these mechanisms are well characterized in model species such as Arabidopsis thaliana, they remain underexplored in many purpose-grown energy crops. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge of epigenetic regulation in bioenergy species, explores how these mechanisms can be leveraged to enhance crop resilience and productivity, and identifies gaps in our understanding. By characterizing epigenetic mechanisms and harnessing epigenetic variation, we can expand the toolkit for developing resilient, high-yielding bioenergy crops to meet future environmental and energy demands.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14–36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year –1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year –1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Furthermore, our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Data for Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14–36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year–1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year–1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.

Field Data↗

Engineering Curcumin Biosynthesis in Poplar Affects Lignification and Biomass Yield

Lignocellulosic biomass is recalcitrant toward deconstruction into simple sugars mainly due to the presence of lignin. By engineering plants to partially replace traditional lignin monomers with alternative ones, lignin degradability and extractability can be enhanced. Previously, the alternative monomer curcumin has been successfully produced and incorporated into lignified cell walls of Arabidopsis by the heterologous expression of DIKETIDE-CoA SYNTHASE (DCS) and CURCUMIN SYNTHASE2 (CURS2). The resulting transgenic plants did not suffer from yield penalties and had an increased saccharification yield after alkaline pretreatment. Here, we translated this strategy into the bio-energy crop poplar. Via the heterologous expression of DCS and CURS2 under the control of the secondary cell wall CELLULOSE SYNTHASE A8-B promoter (ProCesA8-B), curcumin was also produced and incorporated into the lignified cell walls of poplar. ProCesA8-B:DCS_CURS2 transgenic poplars, however, suffered from shoot-tip necrosis and yield penalties. Compared to that of the wild-type (WT), the wood of transgenic poplars had 21% less cellulose, 28% more matrix polysaccharides, 23% more lignin and a significantly altered lignin composition. More specifically, ProCesA8-B:DCS_CURS2 lignin had a reduced syringyl/guaiacyl unit (S/G) ratio, an increased frequency of p-hydroxyphenyl (H) units, a decreased frequency of p-hydroxybenzoates and a higher fraction of phenylcoumaran units. Without, or with alkaline or hot water pretreatment, the saccharification efficiency of the transgenic lines was equal to that of the WT. These differences in (growth) phenotype illustrate that translational research in crops is essential to assess the value of an engineering strategy for applications. Further fine-tuning of this research strategy (e.g., by using more specific promoters or by translating this strategy to other crops such as maize) might lead to transgenic bio-energy crops with cell walls more amenable to deconstruction without settling in yield.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Novel Preprocessing Techniques for Enhancing Flowability of Miscanthus

Purpose-grown energy crops possess significant potential as promising feedstocks for biofuel and biochemical production. However, similar to other biomass feedstocks, their utilization has been hindered by handling and feeding challenges such as clogging and segregation, which prevent biorefineries from operating at full capacity. These challenges arise primarily due to particle attributes including irregular shape, high flexibility, and high compressibility, leading to interlocking, high compaction, and significant friction under stress consolidation. To enhance operational reliability, it is crucial to focus on preprocessing techniques to address these issues, alongside accurately characterizing the mechanical and physical properties and flow performance of these feedstocks. This study investigates novel preprocessing techniques, including pelletization and torrefaction, to fundamentally alter these particle attributes and improve flowability. Miscanthus, an herbaceous energy crop, was the primary focus of this study. Samples were processed using a Forest Concepts Crumbler rotary shear system and an oscillating multi-stack screen bed to achieve two nominal (baseline) particle sizes: 6mm and 2mm. The study evaluated the efficiency and energy consumption of size reduction, revealing that while 2mm particles required more energy, they exhibited better flowability and higher yield strength compared to 6mm particles. Shear and compression tests assessed the material's shear strength, internal friction, and elastic modulus, while wedge-shaped hopper tests measured the critical arching distance and mass flow rate. The results provide valuable insights into the mechanical properties and processing efficiency of Miscanthus, contributing to the development of a preprocessing framework that enhances energy efficiency and material flowability in bioenergy production. However, further preprocessing and development are required to optimize this framework fully.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

Agriculture’s Potential Regional Economic Contributions to the United States Economy When Supplying Feedstock to the Bio-Economy

The economic impact of obtaining biomass could become significant to U.S. rural economies via the establishment of a bioeconomy. In 2023, the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory provided a road map to obtain over a billion tons of biomass for conversion to bioenergy and other products. Using information from this roadmap, this study estimates the potential positive and negative economic impacts that occur because of land use change, along with increased technological advances. This is achieved by using the input–output model, IMPLAN, and impacting 179 Bureau of Economic Analysis regions in the conterminous United States. Biomass included in the analysis comprises dedicated energy crops, crop residues, and forest residues. The analysis found that managing pastures more intensively could result in releasing land to produce dedicated energy crops on 30.8 million hectares, resulting in the production of 361 million metric tons of biomass. This, coupled with crop residues from barley, corn, oats, sorghum, and wheat (162 million metric tons), plus forest residues (41 million metric tons), provide 564 million dry metric tons of biomass. Assuming the price for biomass in 2023 dollars was USD 77 per dry metric-ton, this additional production results in an economic benefit for the nation of USD 619 billion, an increase from the Business As Is scenario (Baseline) of almost USD 100 billion per year, assuming a mature biomass industry. An additional 700,000 jobs are required to grow, harvest/collect, and transport the biomass material from the land.

ForSEAM↗

Bio-Restore Workshop Summary Report

This report summarizes the results of a Bioenergy Technologies Office-sponsored public workshop held at Argonne National Laboratory on September 25–26, 2019. The purpose of the Bio-Restore Workshop was to bring together experts to discuss the current state of the technology and to identify data and R&D relevant to the bio-restore concept. Specific topics included using dedicated energy crops and other biomass sources to provide environmental benefits, implementing algae technologies (e.g., wastewater treatment, direct bloom harvest, turf scrubbers, macroalgae), quantifying and valorizing ecosystem services, developing low-cost sensors and data management systems, and integrating “bio-restore biomass” with supply chain needs. For the purposes of the workshop, the term “bio-restore biomass” refers to terrestrial and algal biomass that provides environmental benefits when produced or harvested. For terrestrial biomass, this primarily includes energy crops (herbaceous and woody), other cellulosic biomass, and waste biomass. For algal biomass, this includes wastewater treatment algal biomass, algal blooms, algal turf scrubbers/attached growth systems, and macroalgae. Types of biomass not of interest to the workshop discussions include oilseed crops, crops generally grown for food or feed, and algae grown in artificial light conditions or other energy-intensive cultivation designs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Data from: High temperatures and low soil moisture synergistically reduce switchgrass yields from marginal field sites and inhibit fermentation

‘Marginal lands’ are low productivity sites abandoned from agriculture for reasons such as low or high soil water content, challenging topography, or nutrient deficiency. To avoid competition with crop production, cellulosic bio- energy crops have been proposed for cultivation on marginal lands, however on these sites they may be more strongly affected by environmental stresses such as low soil water content. In this study we used rainout shelters to in- duce low soil moisture on marginal lands and determine the effect of soil water stress on switchgrass growth and the subsequent production of bioetha- nol. Five marginal land sites that span a latitudinal gradient in Michigan and Wisconsin were planted to switchgrass in 2013 and during the 2018–2021 growing seasons were exposed to reduced precipitation under rainout shelters in comparison to ambient precipitation. The effect of reduced precipitation was related to the environmental conditions at each site and biofuel produc- tion metrics (switchgrass biomass yields and composition and ethanol pro- duction). During the first year (2018), the rainout shelters were designed with 60% rain exclusion, which did not affect biomass yields compared to ambient conditions at any of the field sites, but decreased switchgrass fermentability at the Wisconsin Central–Hancock site. In subsequent years, the shelters were redesigned to fully exclude rainfall, which led to reduced biomass yields and inhibited fermentation for three sites. When switchgrass was grown in soils with large reductions in moisture and increases in temperature, the potential for biofuel production was significantly reduced, exposing some of the chal- lenges associated with producing biofuels from lignocellulosic biomass grown under drought conditions.

bioethanol↗

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗