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Data-Driven Recommendation of Optimal Tuning Scheme for Range-Separated Hybrid Functionals in Solution-Phase UV/Vis Absorption Energy Prediction
Time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) combined with range-separated hybrid (RSH) functionals and a tuned range-separation parameter γ offers a computationally economical approach for high-throughput excited- state property predictions. The γ-tuning procedure in the gas phase is well established. However, no agreement on the best γ- tuning procedure has been made when considering the solvent effect with implicit solvent models like the polarizable continuum model (PCM). To answer that question, this study created a diverse dataset with 937 molecules with experimental solutionphase UV/vis absorption spectra. Three γ-tuning methods, the gasphase γ-tuning (GPγT), the partial vertical γ-tuning (PVγT), and the strict vertical γ-tuning (SVγT), were evaluated for the ωPBEh functional over the entire dataset. Additional benchmarks are done for the optimally tuned screened range-separated hybrid combined with the PCM approach (SRSH-PCM) and the solvation-mediated tuning procedure (sol-med-OT). Our findings revealed that the optimal γ-values obtained by the PVγT and the SVγT are significantly smaller than the GPγT. This trend holds consistently across all molecules in our dataset, and we explained the origin of this phenomenon. TDDFT calculations with PVγTand SVγT-tuned γ-values and default global Fock exchange fraction achieve superior performance compared to those using GPγTtuned or default γ and slightly outperform SRSH-PCM and sol-med-OT with similar or lesser computational cost. Furthermore, we found that the smaller γ-values from SVγT captured the expected 1/(εR) asymptotic behavior in the solution phase, resulting in accurate prediction of solution-phase CT excitations, consistent with the screened asymptote behavior encoded in SRSH-PCM. These results show that SVγT is the best scheme for high-throughput UV/vis absorption spectrum calculations using the ωPBEh functional from a data-driven perspective.
Predicted energy densitites for nickel-hydrogen and silver-hydrogen cells embodying metallic hydrides for hydrogen storage
Simplified design concepts were used to estimate gravimetric and volumetric energy densities for metal hydrogen battery cells for assessing the characteristics of cells containing metal hydrides as compared to gaseous storage cells, and for comparing nickel cathode and silver cathode systems. The silver cathode was found to yield superior energy densities in all cases considered. The inclusion of hydride forming materials yields cells with very high volumetric energy densities that also retain gravimetric energy densities nearly as high as those of gaseous storage cells.
Predicted energy densities for nickel-hydrogen and silver-hydrogen cells embodying metallic hydrides for hydrogen storage
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Predicted energy shifts for 'paronic' helium
It has been shown by Greenberg and Mohapatra (1987) that it is possible to construct a local relativistic quantum field theory which admits small violations of the Pauli exclusion principle, by introducing paronic states which obey para-Fermi statistics of order 2. Paronic shifts are calculated for the low-lying states of helium to aid in the design of experiments either to detect paronic helium, or place upper limits on its possible existence.
RouteE: A Vehicle Energy Consumption Prediction Engine
The emergence of connected and automated vehicles and smart cities technologies create the opportunity for new mobility modes and routing decision tools, among many others. To achieve maximum mobility and minimum energy consumption, it is critical to understand the energy cost of decisions and optimize accordingly. The Route Energy prediction model (RouteE) enables accurate estimation of energy consumption for a variety of vehicle types over trips or sub-trips where detailed drive cycle data are unavailable. Applications include vehicle route selection, energy accounting and optimization in transportation simulation, and corridor energy analyses, among others. The software is a Python package that includes a variety of pre-trained models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, RouteE also enables users to train custom models using their own data sets, making it a robust and valuable tool for both fast calculations and rigorous, data-rich research efforts. The pre-trained RouteE models are established using NREL’s Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator paired with approximately 1 million miles of drive cycle data from the Transportation Secure Data Center, resulting in energy consumption behavior estimates over a representative sample of driving conditions for the United States. Validations have been performed using on-road fuel consumption data for conventional and electrified vehicle powertrains. Transferring the results of the on-road validation to a larger set of real-world origin-destination pairs, it is estimated that implementing the present methodology in a green-routing application would accurately select the route that consumes the least fuel 90% of the time. The novel machine learning techniques used in RouteE make it a flexible and robust tool for a variety of transportation applications.
Energy metric prediction for double insertion mutants via the RoseNet deep learning framework
Studying the structural and functional implications of protein mutations is an important task in computational biology and bioinformatics. We leverage our previously proposed RoseNet neural network architecture to predict energy metrics of proteins with double amino acid insertions or deletions (InDels). We train models on previously generated benchmark datasets containing the exhaustive double InDel mutations for three proteins, as well as an additional three proteins for which ∼145k random mutants, each with two InDels, have been generated. We expand on our previous work by evaluating three additional proteins and analyzing domain features that impact the prediction capabilities of RoseNet. These features include InDels into secondary structures and the solvent accessible surface area (SASA) scores of the residues. We uncover further evidence to support that RoseNet has a higher proficiency of generalizing to unseen residue combinations than unseen insertion positions. We also observe that RoseNet produces higher-quality predictions when inserting into a β-sheet over an α-helix. Additionally, when the insertions fall in an area of high SASA, RoseNet often displays better performance than inserting into areas of low SASA.
RouteE-Powertrain [SWR-19-19]
RouteE-Powertrain is a tool for predicting energy usage over a set of road links. RouteE-Powertrain is a Python package that allows users to work with a set of pre-trained mesoscopic vehicle energy prediction models for a varity of vehicle types. Additionally, users can train their own models if "ground truth" energy consumption and driving data are available. RouteE-Powertrain models predict vehicle energy consumption over links in a road network, so the features considered for prediction often include traffic speeds, road grade, turns, etc. The typical user will utilize RouteE's catalog of pre-trained models. Currently, the catalog consists of light-duty vehicle models, including conventional gasoline, diesel, hybrid electric (HEV), and battery electric (BEV). These models can be applied to link-level driving data (in the form of pandas dataframes) to output energy consumption predictions. Users that wish to train new RouteE models can do so. The model training function of RouteE enables users to use their own drive-cycle data, powertrain modeling system, and road network data to train custom models. https://pypi.org/project/nrel.routee.powertrain/ pip install nrel.routee.powertrain
Prediction of Structures and Atomization Energies of Coinage Metals, (M)n, n < 20: Extrapolation of Normalized Clustering Energies to Predict the Cohesive Energy
The geometries of the group 11 coinage metals (n = 2-20) were optimized to determine the lowest energy isomers for each cluster size, singlets for even numbers and doublets for odd numbers. For copper and silver, 2-D (planar) geometries were favored up to n = 6. For gold, 2D (planar) geometries were favored up to n = 13. Normalized clustering energies were plotted as a function of cluster size (n-1/3, for n = 4-20) with various DFT functionals and the CCSD(T)-F12b method and were extrapolated to predict the bulk cohesive energy. In the case of copper and silver, there is excellent agreement between the cohesive energies predicted at the CCSD(T)-F12b level of theory and the experimental values. For gold, the CCSD(T)-F12b values needed to be corrected for spin-orbit relativistic effects to obtain good agreement with experiment. Electronic properties including the HOMO-LUMO gaps for the even clusters and the spin densities for the odd clusters were calculated. The lowest gap is predicted to occur for n = 16 where the HOMO and LUMO are very similar in shape.
An overview of wind-energy-production prediction bias, losses, and uncertainties
Abstract. The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the reported average energy prediction bias is declining. Herein, we present a literature review of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary of how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the article.
Performance evaluation of automated data-driven feature extraction and selection methods for practical and scalable building energy consumption prediction models
Here, this study quantifies the impact of automated feature engineering methods (feature extraction and selection) on the quality and accuracy of machine learning models that predict building energy consumption. The case study compares model performance for three main scenarios: baseline (no feature extraction and selection), feature extraction only, and feature extraction combined with feature selection (filter and/or wrapper methods) for fully trained machine learning models for 200 metered/sub-metered energy measurements across 118 real buildings. For consistency, the same machine learning model architecture (a black box deep learning neural network with probabilistic forecast output) was used for all scenarios. Based on results, all feature engineering methods provided noticeable prediction accuracy improvements (e.g., 29%-68% median prediction improvement) compared to baseline scenarios. However, in this application, feature selection methods provide little practical value due to their limited performance gains and high computational cost. Smarter algorithm development supported by better computational environments will be needed before feature selection methods can reliably and efficiently improve predictive model performance.
A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration
Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models.
Quantum-Chemically Informed Machine Learning: Prediction of Energies of Organic Molecules with 10 to 14 Non-hydrogen Atoms
High-fidelity quantum-chemical calculations can provide accurate predictions of molecular energies, but their high computational costs limit their utility, especially for larger molecules. We have shown in previous work that machine learning models trained on high-level quantum-chemical calculations (G4MP2) for organic molecules with one to nine non-hydrogen atoms can provide accurate predictions for other molecules of comparable size at much lower costs. Here we demonstrate that such models can also be used to effectively predict energies of molecules larger than those in the training set. To implement this strategy, we first established a set of 191 molecules with 10–14 non-hydrogen atoms having reliable experimental enthalpies of formation. We then assessed the accuracy of computed G4MP2 enthalpies of formation for these 191 molecules. The error in the G4MP2 results was somewhat larger than that for smaller molecules, and the reason for this increase is discussed. Two density functional methods, B3LYP and ωB97X-D, were also used on this set of molecules, with ωB97X-D found to perform better than B3LYP at predicting energies. The G4MP2 energies for the 191 molecules were then predicted using these two functionals with two machine learning methods, the FCHL-Δ and SchNet-Δ models, with the learning done on calculated energies of the one to nine non-hydrogen atom molecules. The better-performing model, FCHL-Δ, gave atomization energies of the 191 organic molecules with 10–14 non-hydrogen atoms within 0.4 kcal/mol of their G4MP2 energies. Thus, this work demonstrates that quantum-chemically informed machine learning can be used to successfully predict the energies of large organic molecules whose size is beyond that in the training set.
Low predictability of energy balance traits and leaf temperature metrics in desert, montane and alpine plant communities
Abstract Leaf energy balance may influence plant performance and community composition. While biophysical theory can link leaf energy balance to many traits and environment variables, predicting leaf temperature and key driver traits with incomplete parameterizations remains challenging. Predicting thermal offsets ( δ , T leaf − T air difference) or thermal coupling strengths ( β , T leaf vs. T air slope) is challenging. We ask: (a) whether environmental gradients predict variation in energy balance traits (absorptance, leaf angle, stomatal distribution, maximum stomatal conductance, leaf area, leaf height); (b) whether commonly measured leaf functional traits (dry matter content, mass per area, nitrogen fraction, δ 13 C, height above ground) predict energy balance traits; and (c) how traits and environmental variables predict δ and β among species. We address these questions with diurnal measurements of 41 species co‐occurring along a 1,100 m elevation gradient spanning desert to alpine biomes. We show that (a) energy balance traits are only weakly associated with environmental gradients and (b) are not well predicted by common functional traits. We also show that (c) δ and β can be partially approximated using interactions among site environment and traits, with a much larger role for environment than traits. The heterogeneity in leaf temperature metrics and energy balance traits challenges larger‐scale predictive models of plant performance under environmental change. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.
RouteE: A Vehicle Energy Consumption Prediction Engine
The emergence of connected and automated vehicles and smart cities technologies create the opportunity for new mobility modes and routing decision tools, among many others. To achieve maximum mobility and minimum energy consumption, it is critical to understand the energy cost of decisions and optimize accordingly. The Route Energy prediction model (RouteE) enables accurate estimation of energy consumption for a variety of vehicle types over trips or sub-trips where detailed drive cycle data are unavailable. Applications include vehicle route selection, energy accounting and optimization in transportation simulation, and corridor energy analyses, among others. The software is a Python package that includes a variety of pre-trained models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, RouteE also enables users to train custom models using their own data sets, making it a robust and valuable tool for both fast calculations and rigorous, data-rich research efforts. The pre-trained RouteE models are established using NREL's Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator paired with approximately 1 million miles of drive cycle data from the Transportation Secure Data Center, resulting in energy consumption behavior estimates over a representative sample of driving conditions for the United States. Validations have been performed using on-road fuel consumption data for conventional and electrified vehicle powertrains. Transferring the results of the on-road validation to a larger set of real-world origin-destination pairs, it is estimated that implementing the present methodology in a green-routing application would accurately select the route that consumes the least fuel 90% of the time. The novel machine learning techniques used in RouteE make it a flexible and robust tool for a variety of transportation applications.
How Accurate Can Crystal Structure Predictions Be for High-Energy Molecular Crystals?
Molecular crystals have shallow potential energy landscapes, with multiple local minima separated by very small differences in total energy. Predicting molecular packing and molecular conformation in the crystal generally requires ab initio methods of high accuracy, especially when polymorphs are involved. We used dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT-D) to assess the capabilities of an evolutionary algorithm (EA) for the crystal structure prediction (CSP) of well-known but challenging high-energy molecular crystals (HMX, RDX, CL-20, and FOX-7). While providing the EA with the experimental conformation of the molecule quickly re-discovers the experimental packing, it is more realistic to start instead from a naïve, flat, or neutral initial conformation, which reflects the limited experimental knowledge we generally have in the computational design of molecular crystals. By doing so, and using fully flexible molecules in fully variable unit cells, we show that the experimental structures can be predicted in fewer than 20 generations. Nonetheless, one must be aware that some molecular crystals have naturally hindered evolutions, requiring as many attempts as there are space groups of interest to predict their structures, and some may require the accuracy of all-electron calculations to discriminate between closely ranked structures. To save resources in this computationally demanding process, we showed that a hybrid xTB/DFT-D approach could be considered in a subsequent study to push the limits of CSP beyond 200+ atoms and for cocrystals.
An Overview of Wind Energy Production Prediction Bias, Losses, and Uncertainties
The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the industry is recording near-zero average energy prediction bias. Herein, we present an overview of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including the improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight the opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty, and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary on how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the manuscript.