Integrated Fluid and Materials Modeling of Environmental Barrier Coatings.
Abstract not provided.
Newsome, David↗
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Kinetic model for environmentally assisted crack growth threshold.
Abstract not provided.
Grutzik, Scott↗
Economic, Social. and Environmental Cost/Benefit Modeling of Fit-for-Purpose Treatment and Reuse of Produced Water.
Abstract not provided.
Tidwell, Vincent↗
Nuclear Reactors and the Arctic: Environmental Impact Modeling and MACCS.
Abstract not provided.
Clavier, Kyle↗
Integrated Fluid and Materials Modeling of Environmental Barrier Coatings.
Abstract not provided.
Newsome, David↗
Development and Evaluation of Ensemble Learning-based Environmental Methane Detection and Intensity Prediction Models
The environmental impacts of global warming driven by methane (CH 4 ) emissions have catalyzed significant research initiatives in developing novel technologies that enable proactive and rapid detection of CH 4 . Several data-driven machine learning (ML) models were tested to determine how well they identified fugitive CH 4 and its related intensity in the affected areas. Various meteorological characteristics, including wind speed, temperature, pressure, relative humidity, water vapor, and heat flux, were included in the simulation. We used the ensemble learning method to determine the best-performing weighted ensemble ML models built upon several weaker lower-layer ML models to (i) detect the presence of CH 4 as a classification problem and (ii) predict the intensity of CH 4 as a regression problem. The classification model performance for CH 4 detection was evaluated using accuracy, F1 score, Matthew’s Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC), with the top-performing model being 97.2%, 0.972, 0.945 and 0.995, respectively. The R 2 score was used to evaluate the regression model performance for CH 4 intensity prediction, with the R 2 score of the best-performing model being 0.858. The ML models developed in this study for fugitive CH 4 detection and intensity prediction can be used with fixed environmental sensors deployed on the ground or with sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for mobile detection.
Majumder, Reek↗
Environmental Factors Associated With Fall Phytoplankton Blooms in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas
This study investigates environmental drivers of fall phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic, focusing on the northern Bering and Chukchi seas. Random Forests models were used to analyze covariates of fall phytoplankton blooms from 2013 to 2018, incorporating shipboard, remote sensing, and modeled environmental properties. Four regional models and one comprehensive all-station model considered fall as well as midsummer conditions. Midsummer properties included suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll-a, and the proportion of degraded pheophytin to chlorophyll-a used as a proxy for bloom stage. Open water duration was one of the highest ranked factors in predicting fall blooms. Open water duration also influences the stage of midsummer (July) blooms as indicated by pheophytin proportions, which in turn were the highest-ranked factor for predicting fall bloom events in the Chirikov Basin (northern Bering Sea between St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait) and the Chukchi Sea. Wind direction, specifically easterly winds, was an important predictor in the northern Bering Sea. Maximum wind speed ranked highly at stations located within the nutrient-poor Alaska Coastal Current in the Chukchi Sea. However, stormy days, average and maximum wind speeds generally ranked low in importance as a predictor of fall bloom events. Other parameters, including photosynthetic active radiation, modeled nutrient concentrations, mixed layer depth, and time since sea ice breakup date showed strong but regionally varying relationships with fall blooms. Altogether, results from these Random Forests models suggest that high wind events and storms in the absence of sea ice provide an incomplete narrative for initiating fall bloom events.
Gaffey, C. B. [Clark University, Worcester, MA (Un↗
NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model
Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022
AoR↗
Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems
An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Model-Data for Joint Estimation of Biogeochemical Model Parameters from Multiple Experiments: A Bayesian Approach Applied to Mercury Methylation
This modeling archive supports the manuscript submitted for publication in the Environmental Modeling and Software. This study is supported by ORNL-SFA and IDEAS-Watershed. This study aims to improve calibration of complex biogeochemical models using datasets from multiple experiments targeting specific subprocesses. The proposed Bayesian joint-fitting scheme calibrates the entire biogeochemical model in one go using all the available datasets and estimate parameter uncertainties using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This allows for complete propagation of uncertainties and utilization of the information shared between different datasets. Mapping joint distribution of parameters guides model improvement by identifying null spaces in the parameter space. This archive contains files used to perform MCMC, post-process outputs and visualize results.
East Fork Poplar Creek↗
Sustainability and affordability of building electrification: A state-by-state holistic approach for multifamily buildings
This paper explores the evolving narrative of building electrification, considering its potential to solve climate change. Previous research has predominantly focused on hybrid renewable energy portfolios and increasing home pricing premiums, overlooking the perspectives of renters burdened by housing costs. Moreover, existing studies have primarily examined the effects of electrification on single-family homes and case studies, neglecting multifamily buildings and their relationship with the grid. This comprehensive study leverages calibrated building energy models to address these gaps and evaluates sustainability through carbon dioxide emissions and affordability through economic performance. The findings demonstrate significant progress in electrification since 2017, with nearly all states showing decreased energy usage in the electrified models. Environmentally, twenty-two states perform better or comparably with the electrified models in the most recent study. Economically, challenges persist, but a sensitivity analysis demonstrates how results could improve soon. Furthermore, the study discusses the outlook of electrified multifamily buildings, considering ongoing decarbonization plans for the electric grid. In three case studies, electrification demonstrates improvements in over half of the states by 2026. Overall, the research highlights the importance of expanding analysis to include multifamily buildings and emphasizes the positive impact of electrification as a viable energy, environmental, and economic solution.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Toward more mechanistic representations of biogeochemical processes in stream and river networks: Implementation and demonstration of a multiscale model : Modeling Archive
This Modeling Archive supports the ORNL-SFA and IDEAS-Waterhsed publication submitted to Environmental Modeling and Software. A recently introduced multiscale model for representing the combined effect of hyporheic exchange flows and small-scale hyporheic-zone biogeochemical processes is extended from the reach scale to river network scales. The ADELS (Advection Dispersion Equation with Lagrangian Subgrid) model uses a one-dimensional advection-dispersion-reaction equation for the channel network and couples that equation at each channel location to a one-dimensional advection-reaction subgrid model representing an ensemble of streamlines that are diverted into the hyporheic zone before returning to the channel. The subgrid model is written in a computationally advantageous Lagrangian form with hyporheic age replacing the hyporheic travel distance. In the paper, we summarized implementation in the integrated surface/subsurface hydrology modeling system Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS).
East Fork Poplar Creek↗
Development of aerosol activation in the double-moment Unified Model and evaluation with CLARIFY measurements
Representing the number and mass of cloud and aerosol particles independently in a climate, weather prediction or air quality model is important in order to simulate aerosol direct and indirect effects on radiation balance. Here we introduce the first configuration of the UK Met Office Unified Model in which both cloud and aerosol particles have “double-moment” representations with prognostic number and mass. The GLObal Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP) aerosol microphysics scheme, already used in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 (HadGEM3) climate configuration, is coupled to the Cloud AeroSol Interacting Microphysics (CASIM) cloud microphysics scheme. We demonstrate the performance of the new configuration in high-resolution simulations of a case study defined from the CLARIFY aircraft campaign in 2017 near Ascension Island in the tropical southern Atlantic. We improve the physical basis of the activation scheme by representing the effect of existing cloud droplets on the activation of new aerosol, and we also discuss the effect of unresolved vertical velocities. We show that neglect of these two competing effects in previous studies led to compensating errors but realistic droplet concentrations. While these changes lead only to a modest improvement in model performance, they reinforce our confidence in the ability of the model microphysics code to simulate the aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions it was designed to represent. Capturing these interactions accurately is critical to simulating aerosol effects on climate.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
xGFabric: Coupling Sensor Networks and HPC Facilities with Private 5G Wireless Networks for Real-Time Digital Agriculture
Advanced scientific applications require coupling distributed sensor networks with centralized high-performance computing facilities. Citrus Under Protective Screening (CUPS) exemplifies this need in digital agriculture, where citrus research facilities are instrumented with numerous sensors monitoring environmental conditions and detecting protective screening damage. CUPS demands access to computational fluid dynamics codes for modeling environmental conditions and guiding real-time interventions like water application or robotic repairs. These computing domains have contrasting properties: sensor networks provide low-performance, limited-capacity, unreliable data access, while high-performance facilities offer enormous computing power through high-latency batch processing. Private 5G networks present novel capabilities addressing this challenge by providing low latency, high throughput, and reliability necessary for near-real-time coupling of edge sensor networks with HPC simulations. This work presents xGFabric, an end-to-end system coupling sensor networks with HPC facilities through Private 5G networks. The prototype connects remote sensors via 5G network slicing to HPC systems, enabling real-time digital agriculture simulation.
Digital Agriculture↗
System and method for adaptive object-oriented sensor fusion for environmental mapping
The present disclosure relates to a mapping system adapted for detecting objects in an environmental scene, by scanning an environmental scene with propagating energy, and receiving reflected energy back from objects present in the environmental scene, in a prioritized manner, for later use. The system may comprise an imaging subsystem which includes a detection and ranging subsystem for initially identifying primitive objects in the environmental scene. The imaging subsystem may also include an identification and mapping subsystem for prioritizing the primitive objects for further scanning and analysis, to ultimately identify one or more of the primitive objects as one or more abstract objects. An environmental model, updated in real time, is used to maintain a map of the primitive objects and the known abstract objects within the environmental scene, as new primitive objects and new abstract objects are obtained with repeated scans of the environmental scene.
Panas, Robert Matthew↗
Watershed Workflow: A toolset for parameterizing data-intensive, integrated hydrologic models
Integrated, distributed hydrologic models leverage advances in computational power and data accessibility to improve predictive understanding of the water cycle. While impressive advances in this area of environmental modeling have been accomplished, such models are still rarely used, partially because of difficulty integrating model and data. This research describes the release of Watershed Workflow version 1.2, a new library aiming to automate and enable complex workflows defining inputs to high resolution, integrated, distributed hydrologic models. Watershed Workflow provides tools enabling the discovery, acquisition, mapping, and coordination of watershed geometry, land cover, soil properties, and meteorological data. It enables the construction of unstructured meshes that incorporate this data, and provides tools for automating a “first” simulation on any watershed in the United States. We present the design of the workflow tool, and describe best practices for its usage, culminating in a final example from watershed specification to simulation at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory.
Integrated hydrologic modeling↗
Marine Energy Environmental Permitting and Compliance Costs
Costs to permit Marine Energy projects are poorly understood. In this paper we examine environmental compliance and permitting costs for 19 projects in the U.S., covering the last 2 decades. Guided discussions were conducted with developers over a 3-year period to obtain historical and ongoing project cost data relative to environmental studies (e.g., baseline or pre-project site characterization as well as post-installation effects monitoring), stakeholder outreach, and mitigation, as well as qualitative experience of the permitting process. Data are organized in categories of technology type, permitted capacity, pre- and post-installation, geographic location, and funding types. We also compare our findings with earlier logic models created for the Department of Energy (i.e., Reference Models). Environmental studies most commonly performed were for Fish and Fisheries, Noise, Marine Habitat/Benthic Studies and Marine Mammals. Studies for tidal projects were more expensive than those performed for wave projects and the range of reported project costs tended to be wider than ranges predicted by logic models. For eight projects reporting full project costs, from project start to FERC or USACE permit, the average amount for environmental permitting compliance was 14.6%.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Influence of aluminum incorporation and aqueous conditions on metal ion release of high-Ni transition metal oxide nanomaterials
Developing a materials perspective of how to control the degradation and negative impact of complex metal oxides requires an integrated understanding of how these nanomaterials transform in the environment and interact with biological systems. Doping with aluminum is known to stabilize oxide materials, but has not been assessed cohesively from synthesis to environmental fate and biological impact. In the present study, the influence of aluminum doping on metal ion release from transition metal oxides was investigated by comparing aqueous transformations of lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (LiNi 0.82 Co 0.15 Al 0.03 O 2 ; NCA) and lithium nickel cobalt oxide (LiNi 0.80 Co 0.20 O 2 ; NC) nanoparticles and by calculating the energetics of metal release using a density functional theory (DFT) and thermodynamics method. Two model environmental organisms were used to assess biological impact, and metal ion release was compared for NCA and NC nanoparticles incubated in their respective growth media: moderately hard reconstituted water (MHRW) for the freshwater invertebrate Daphnia magna (D. magna) and minimal growth medium for the Gram-negative bacterium Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 (S. oneidensis). Further, the amount of metal ions released was reduced for NCA compared to NC in MHRW, which correlated to changes in the modeled energetics of release upon Al substitution in the lattice. In minimal medium, metal ion release was approximately an order of magnitude higher compared to MHRW and was similar to the stoichiometry of the bulk nanoparticles for both NCA and NC. Interpretation of the release profiles and modeling indicated that the increase in total metal ion release and the reduced influence of Al doping arises from lactate complexation of metal ions in solution. The relative biological impacts of NC and NCA exposure for both S. oneidensis and D. magna were consistent with the metal release trends observed for minimal medium and MHRW, respectively. Together, these results demonstrate how a combined experimental and computational approach provides valuable insight into the aqueous transformations and biological impacts of complex metal oxide nanoparticles.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗