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The Importance of Data Visualization: Incorporating Storytelling into the Scientific Presentation

From its inception in 2000, one of the primary tasks of the Biomedical Data Reduction Analysis (BDRA) group has been translation of large amounts of data into information that is relevant to the audience receiving it. BDRA helps translate data into an integrated model that supports both operational and research activities. This data integrated model and subsequent visual data presentations have contributed to BDRA's success in delivering the message (i.e., the story) that its customers have needed to communicate. This success has led to additional collaborations among groups that had previously not felt they had much in common until they worked together to develop solutions in an integrated fashion. As more emphasis is placed on working with "big data" and on showing how NASA's efforts contribute to the greater good of the American people and of the world, it becomes imperative to visualize the story of our data to communicate the greater message we need to share. METHODS To create and expand its data integrated model, BDRA has incorporated data from many different collaborating partner labs and other sources. Data are compiled from the repositories of the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health and the Life Sciences Data Archive, and from the individual laboratories at Johnson Space Center that support collection of data from medical testing, environmental monitoring, and countermeasures, as designated in the Medical Requirements Integration Documents. Ongoing communication with the participating collaborators is maintained to ensure that the message and story of the data are retained as data are translated into information and visual data presentations are delivered in different venues and to different audiences. RESULTS We will describe the importance of storytelling through an integrated model and of subsequent data visualizations in today's scientific presentations and discuss the collaborative methods used. We will illustrate the discussion with examples of graphs from BDRA's past work supporting operations and/or research efforts.

Babiak-Vazquez, A.↗

Remote-Sensing Time Series Analysis, a Vegetation Monitoring Tool

The Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) is software, developed in MATLAB , which creates and displays high signal-to- noise Vegetation Indices imagery and other higher-level products derived from remotely sensed data. This tool enables automated, rapid, large-scale regional surveillance of crops, forests, and other vegetation. TSPT temporally processes high-revisit-rate satellite imagery produced by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and by other remote-sensing systems. Although MODIS imagery is acquired daily, cloudiness and other sources of noise can greatly reduce the effective temporal resolution. To improve cloud statistics, the TSPT combines MODIS data from multiple satellites (Aqua and Terra). The TSPT produces MODIS products as single time-frame and multitemporal change images, as time-series plots at a selected location, or as temporally processed image videos. Using the TSPT program, MODIS metadata is used to remove and/or correct bad and suspect data. Bad pixel removal, multiple satellite data fusion, and temporal processing techniques create high-quality plots and animated image video sequences that depict changes in vegetation greenness. This tool provides several temporal processing options not found in other comparable imaging software tools. Because the framework to generate and use other algorithms is established, small modifications to this tool will enable the use of a large range of remotely sensed data types. An effective remote-sensing crop monitoring system must be able to detect subtle changes in plant health in the earliest stages, before the effects of a disease outbreak or other adverse environmental conditions can become widespread and devastating. The integration of the time series analysis tool with ground-based information, soil types, crop types, meteorological data, and crop growth models in a Geographic Information System, could provide the foundation for a large-area crop-surveillance system that could identify a variety of plant phenomena and improve monitoring capabilities.

McKellip, Rodney↗

A continuation of base-line studies for environmentally monitoring Space Transportation Systems (STS) at John F. Kennedy Space Center. Volume 4: Threatened and endangered species of the Kennedy Space Center. Part 1: Marine turtle studies

The status of marine turtle populations in the KSC area was studied using data from previous results from ground and aerial surveillance conducted from 1976 to April 1979. During ground surveillance, various data were recorded on emergent turtles such as: species, weight, tag number (if previously tagged), time discovered, activity at discovery and the location of discovery. Observations were also made on nesting and reproductive characteristics, population estimates, immigration and emigration and growth rate of the turtles. Mortality studies were additionally made and autopsies performed on dead turtles found in the area. It is concluded that further mortality documentation should be done just prior to and just after a future space launch operation in order to accurately assess the cause and effect relationship of such a launch on the turtle population.

Ehrhart, L. M.↗

Use of MODIS Terra Imagery to Estimate Surface Water Quality Standards, Using Lake Thonotosassa, Florida, as a Case Study

Lake Thonotosassa is a highly eutrophied lake located in an area with rapidly growing population in the Tampa Bay watershed, Florida. The Florida Administrative Code has designated its use for "recreation, propagation and maintenance of a healthy, well-balanced population of fish and wildlife." Although this lake has been the subject of efforts to improve water quality since 1970, overall water quality has remained below the acceptable state standards, and has a high concentration of nutrients. This condition is of great concern to public health since it has favored episodic blooms of Cyanobacteria. Some Cyanobacterial species release toxins that can reach humans through drinking water, fish consumption, and direct contact with contaminated water. The lake has been historically popular for fishing and water sports, and its overflow water drains into the Hillsborough River, the main supply of municipal water for the City of Tampa, this explains why it has being constantly monitored in situ for water quality by the Environmental Protection Commission of Hillsborough County (EPC). Advances in remote sensing technology, however, open the possibility of facilitating similar types of monitoring in this and similar lakes, further contributing to the implementation of surveillance systems that would benefit not just public health, but also tourism and ecosystems. Although traditional application of this technology to water quality has been focused on much larger coastal water bodies like bays and estuaries, this study evaluates the feasibility of its application on a 46.6 km2 freshwater lake. Using surface reflectance products from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra, this study evaluates associations between remotely sensed data and in situ data from the EPC. The parameters analyzed are the surface water quality standards used by the State of Florida and general indicators of trophic status.

Moreno, Max J.↗

Space Radiation Technologies for Human Missions beyond Low-Earth-Orbit

Ionizing radiation exposure is a pervasive occupational risk to astronauts and remains a major health risk associated with human exploration beyond low-Earth-orbit. Sustained lunar and Mars exploration crew will be at increased risk of radiogenic cancers and cardiovascular disease, as well as, the potential for in-mission performance decrements, immune system decrements, and late neurodegenerative conditions impacting crew health. Optimizing astronaut space radiation protection will incorporate both physical and biological radiological aspects and will implement protection strategies that span pre-mission, in-flight, and post mission timelines. Major facets of physical risk mitigation include accuracy in predicting the space radiation solar environment, monitoring environmental and human exposures, and minimizing exposure through vehicle shielding and design. Biological mitigation facets include understanding and predicting biological response to the space environment, developing advanced medical countermeasures, and identifying appropriate surveillance strategies to preserve long-term health. Coordinated investments in these major capability areas will support development of an integrated radiation protection solution to minimize astronaut risk for moon to Mars exploration missions.

Lisa C Simonsen↗

Microbial Diversity Aboard Spacecraft: Evaluation of the International Space Station

An evaluation of the microbial flora from air, water, and surface samples provided a baseline of microbial diversity onboard the International Space Station (ISS) to gain insight into bacterial and fungal contamination during the initial stages of construction and habitation. Using 16S genetic sequencing and rep-PeR, 63 bacterial strains were isolated for identification and fingerprinted for microbial tracking. The use of these molecular tools allowed for the identification of bacteria not previously identified using automated biochemical analysis and provided a clear indication of the source of several ISS contaminants. Fungal and bacterial data acquired during monitoring do not suggest there is a current microbial hazard to the spacecraft, nor does any trend indicate a potential health risk. Previous spacecraft environmental analysis indicated that microbial contamination will increase with time and require continued surveillance.

Castro, Victoria A.↗

DoD-GEIS Rift Valley Fever Monitoring and Prediction System as a Tool for Defense and US Diplomacy

Over the last 10 years the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center's Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (GEIS) partnering with NASA'S Goddard Space Flight Center and USDA's USDA-Center for Medical, Agricultural & Veterinary Entomology established and have operated the Rift Valley fever Monitoring and Prediction System to monitor, predict and assess the risk of Rift Valley fever outbreaks and other vector-borne diseases over Africa and the Middle East. This system is built on legacy DoD basic research conducted by Walter Reed Army Institute of Research overseas laboratory (US Army Medical Research Unit-Kenya) and the operational satellite environmental monitoring by NASA GSFC. Over the last 10 years of operation the system has predicted outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, South Africa and Mauritania. The ability to predict an outbreak several months before it occurs provides early warning to protect deployed forces, enhance public health in concerned countries and is a valuable tool use.d by the State Department in US Diplomacy. At the international level the system has been used by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAD) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to support their monitoring, surveillance and response programs in the livestock sector and human health. This project is a successful testament of leveraging resources of different federal agencies to achieve objectives of force health protection, health and diplomacy.

Anyamba, Assaf↗

Working Toward a Healthy Planet

Using information from NASA s Earth Science Public Health Applications Program, Dr. Maynard will address how remote sensing data and associated technologies can be used toward a better understanding of the links among human health, the environment and weather/climate - and, how this increased understanding plus improved information sharing can empower local health and environmental decision-makers to better predict climate-related health problems, take preventive measures, and improve response actions. Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing climate and environment-related human health problems through increased capabilities for monitoring and surveillance of parameters useful to such problems as infectious and vector-borne diseases, air and water quality, harmful algal blooms, UV radiation, contaminant and pathogen transport in air and water, and thermal stress. NASA s multi-disciplinary scientific team is demonstrating how satellites from their unique vantage point in space can serve as sentinels for weather, climate, and health problems through studies on asthma, malaria, Rift Valley Fever, Asian and African dust, and West Nile Virus

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

International Conference on Remote Sensing Applications for Archaeological Research and World Heritage Conservation

Contents include the following: Monitoring the Ancient Countryside: Remote Sensing and GIS at the Chora of Chersonesos (Crimea, Ukraine). Integration of Remote Sensing and GIS for Management Decision Support in the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve (Republic of Benin). Monitoring of deforestation invasion in natural reserves of northern Madagascar based on space imagery. Cartography of Kahuzi-Biega National Park. Cartography and Land Use Change of World Heritage Areas and the Benefits of Remote Sensing and GIS for Conservation. Assessing and Monitoring Vegetation in Nabq Protected Area, South Sinai, Egypt, using combine approach of Satellite Imagery and Land Surveys. Evaluation of forage resources in semi-arid savannah environments with satellite imagery: contribution to the management of a protected area (Nakuru National Park) in Kenya. SOGHA, the Surveillance of Gorilla Habitat in World Heritage sites using Space Technologies. Application of Remote Sensing to monitor the Mont-Saint-Michel Bay (France). Application of Remote Sensing & GIS for the Conservation of Natural and Cultural Heritage Sites of the Southern Province of Sri Lanka. Social and Environmental monitoring of a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve: Case Study over the Vosges du Nord and Pfalzerwald Parks using Corona and Spot Imagery. Satellite Remote Sensing as tool to Monitor Indian Reservation in the Brazilian Amazonia. Remote Sensing and GIS Technology for Monitoring UNESCO World Heritage Sites - A Pilot Project. Urban Green Spaces: Modern Heritage. Monitoring of the technical condition of the St. Sophia Cathedral and related monastic buildings in Kiev with Space Applications, geo-positioning systems and GIS tools. The Murghab delta palaeochannel Reconstruction on the Basis of Remote Sensing from Space. Acquisition, Registration and Application of IKONOS Space Imagery for the cultural World Heritage site at Mew, Turkmenistan. Remote Sensing and VR applications for the reconstruction of archaeological landscapes. Archaeology through Space: Experience in Indian Subcontinent. The creation of a GIS Archaeological Site Location Catalogue in Yucatan: A Tool to preserve its Cultural Heritage. Mapping the Ancient Anasazi Roads of Southeast Utah. Remote Sensing and GIS Technology for Identification of Conservation and Heritage sites in Urban Planning. Mapping Angkor: For a new appraisal of the Angkor region. Angkor and radar imaging: seeing a vast pre-industrial low-density, dispersed urban complex. Technical and methodological aspects of archaeological CRM integrating high resolution satellite imagery. The contribution of satellite imagery to archaeological survey: an example from western Syria. The use of satellite images, digital elevation models and ground truth for the monitoring of land degradation in the "Cinque Terre" National park. Remote Sensing and GIS Applications for Protection and Conservation of World Heritage Site on the coast - Case Study of Tamil Nadu Coast, India. Multispectral high resolution satellite imagery in combination with "traditional" remote sensing and ground survey methods to the study of archaeological landscapes. The case study of Tuscany. Use of Remotely-Sensed Imagery in Cultural Landscape. Characterisation at Fort Hood, Texas. Heritage Learning and Data Collection: Biodiversity & Heritage Conservation through Collaborative Monitoring & Research. A collaborative project by UNESCO's WHC (World Heritage Center) & The GLOBE Program (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment). Practical Remote Sensing Activities in an Interdisciplinary Master-Level Space Course.

Source record↗

Situational Awareness from a Low-Cost Camera System

A method gathers scene information from a low-cost camera system. Existing surveillance systems using sufficient cameras for continuous coverage of a large field necessarily generate enormous amounts of raw data. Digitizing and channeling that data to a central computer and processing it in real time is difficult when using low-cost, commercially available components. A newly developed system is located on a combined power and data wire to form a string-of-lights camera system. Each camera is accessible through this network interface using standard TCP/IP networking protocols. The cameras more closely resemble cell-phone cameras than traditional security camera systems. Processing capabilities are built directly onto the camera backplane, which helps maintain a low cost. The low power requirements of each camera allow the creation of a single imaging system comprising over 100 cameras. Each camera has built-in processing capabilities to detect events and cooperatively share this information with neighboring cameras. The location of the event is reported to the host computer in Cartesian coordinates computed from data correlation across multiple cameras. In this way, events in the field of view can present low-bandwidth information to the host rather than high-bandwidth bitmap data constantly being generated by the cameras. This approach offers greater flexibility than conventional systems, without compromising performance through using many small, low-cost cameras with overlapping fields of view. This means significant increased viewing without ignoring surveillance areas, which can occur when pan, tilt, and zoom cameras look away. Additionally, due to the sharing of a single cable for power and data, the installation costs are lower. The technology is targeted toward 3D scene extraction and automatic target tracking for military and commercial applications. Security systems and environmental/ vehicular monitoring systems are also potential applications.

Freudinger, Lawrence C.↗

Linking Asthma Exacerbation and Air Pollution Data: A Step Toward Public Health and Environmental Data Integration

Studies have shown that reducing exposure to triggers such as air pollutants can reduce symptoms and the need for medication in asthma patients. However, systems that track asthma are generally not integrated with those that track environmental hazards related to asthma. Tlvs lack of integration hinders public health awareness and responsiveness to these environmental triggers. The current study is a collaboration between health and environmental professionals to utilize NASA-derived environmental data to develop a decision support system (DSS) for asthma prediction, surveillance, and intervention. The investigators link asthma morbidity data from the University of Mississippi Medical Center (UMMC) and Mississippi Department of Health (MDH) with air quality data from the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) and remote sensing data from NASA. Daily ambient environmental hazard data for PM2.5 and ozone are obtained from the MDEQ air quality monitoring locations and are combined with remotely sensed data from NASA to develop a state-wide spatial and time series profile of environmental air quality. These data are then used to study the correlation of these measures of air quality variation with the asthma exacerbation incidence throughout the state over time. The goal is to utilize these readily available measures to allow real-time risk assessment for asthma exacerbations. GeoMedStat, a DSS previously developed for biosurveillance, will integrate these measures to monitor, analyze and report the real-time risk assessment for asthma exacerbation throughout the state.

Faruque, Fazlay↗

The AEDC aerospace chamber 7V: An advanced test capability for infrared surveillance and seeker sensors

An advanced sensor test capability is now operational at the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Center (AEDC) for calibration and performance characterization of infrared sensors. This facility, known as the 7V, is part of a broad range of test capabilities under development at AEDC to provide complete ground test support to the sensor community for large-aperture surveillance sensors and kinetic kill interceptors. The 7V is a state-of-the-art cryo/vacuum facility providing calibration and mission simulation against space backgrounds. Key features of the facility include high-fidelity scene simulation with precision track accuracy and in-situ target monitoring, diffraction limited optical system, NIST traceable broadband and spectral radiometric calibration, outstanding jitter control, environmental systems for 20 K, high-vacuum, low-background simulation, and an advanced data acquisition system.

Simpson, W. R.↗

Remote sensing and human health: new sensors and new opportunities

Since the launch of Landsat-1 28 years ago, remotely sensed data have been used to map features on the earth's surface. An increasing number of health studies have used remotely sensed data for monitoring, surveillance, or risk mapping, particularly of vector-borne diseases. Nearly all studies used data from Landsat, the French Systeme Pour l'Observation de la Terre, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. New sensor systems are in orbit, or soon to be launched, whose data may prove useful for characterizing and monitoring the spatial and temporal patterns of infectious diseases. Increased computing power and spatial modeling capabilities of geographic information systems could extend the use of remote sensing beyond the research community into operational disease surveillance and control. This article illustrates how remotely sensed data have been used in health applications and assesses earth-observing satellites that could detect and map environmental variables related to the distribution of vector-borne and other diseases.

Satellite Communications↗

Integration of Dust Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health

Initial efforts to develop a deterministic model for predicting and simulating pollen release and downwind concentration to study dependencies of phenology on meteorology will be discussed. The development of a real-time, rapid response pollen release and transport system as a component of the New Mexico Environmental Public Health Tracking System (EPHTS), is based on meteorological models, NASA Earth science results (ESR), and an in-situ network of phenology cameras. The plan is to detect pollen release verified using ground based atmospheric pollen sampling within a few hours using daily MODIS daa in nearly real-time from Direct Broadcast, similar to the MODIS Rapid Response System for fire detection. As MODIS winds down, the NPOESS-VIIRS sensor will assume daily vegetation monitoring tasks. Also, advancements in geostationary satellites will allow 1km vegetation indices at 15-30 minute intervals. The pollen module in EPHTS will be used to: (1) support public health decisions for asthma and allergy alerts in New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma; (2) augment the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN); and (3) extend surveillance services to local healthcare providers subscribing to the Syndrome Reporting Information System (SYRIS). Previous studies in NASA's public health applications portfolios provide the infrastructure for this effort. The team is confident that NASA and NOAA ESR data, combined into a verified and validated dust model will yield groundbreaking results using the modified dust model to transport pollen. The growing ESR/health infrastructure is based on results from a rapid prototype scoping effort for pollen detection and simulation carried out by the principal investigators.

Luvall, Jeffrey↗

Utility of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth for Estimating PM2.5 Exposure in Environmental Public Health Surveillance

As part of the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN) the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leading a project called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX-Atlanta). The goal of developing the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network is to improve the health of communities. Currently, few systems exist at the state or national level to concurrently track many of the exposures and health effects that might be associated with environmental hazards. An additional challenge is estimating exposure to environmental hazards such as particulate matter whose aerodynamic diameter is less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM(2.5)) HELIX-Atlanta's goal is to examine the feasibility of building an integrated electronic health and environmental data network in five counties of Metropolitan Atlanta, GA (Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties). Under HELIX-Atlanta, pilot projects are being conducted to develop methods to characterize exposure; link health and environmental data; analyze the relationship between health and environmental factors; and communicate findings. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC) is collaborating with CDC to combine NASA earth science satellite observations related to air quality and environmental monitoring data to model surface estimates of PM(2.5) concentrations that can be linked with clinic visits for asthma. From 1999-2000 there were over 9,400 hospitalizations per year in Georgia with asthma as the primary diagnosis. The majority of these hospitalizations occurred in medical facilities in the five most populous Metro-Atlanta counties. Hospital charges resulting from asthma in Georgia are approximately $59 million dollars annually. There is evidence in the research literature that asthmatic persons are at increased risk of developing asthma exacerbations with exposure to environmental factors, including PM(2.5). Thus, HELIX-Atlanta is focusing on methods for characterizing population exposure to PM(2.5) for the Atlanta metropolitan area that could be used in on-going surveillance. While use of the Air Quality System, (AQS) PM(2.5) data alone could meet HELIX Atlanta, specifications, there are only five AQS sites in the Atlanta area, thus the spatial coverage is not ideal. Also, the AQS ground observations are made at time intervals ranging from one hour to six days leaving some temporal gaps. NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data have the potential for estimating daily ground level PM(2.5) at 10 km resolution over the metropolitan Atlanta area supplementing the AQS ground observations and filling their spatial and temporal gaps.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

Marketing Remote Sensing Data for North Pacific Fisheries Development and Management

Fish poaching, drug trafficking, ocean dumping, and other illegal activities are important problems on the high seas and in national economic zones. The primary thrust of the EOCAP II project, "Marketing Remote Sensing Data for North Pacific Fisheries Development and Management", was to use space-based sensors to improve the effectiveness of marine monitoring, control, and surveillance (MCS). Our initial objectives were to concentrate on the development of MCS tools using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometry (AVHRR) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Although we have successfully completed development of an initial version of our SAR-based monitoring tool (OmniVision), project activity has resulted in a much broader application of space-based assets to marine applications. Based in part on work commenced within EOCAP II, a new company, Ocean and Coastal Environmental Sensing, Inc. (OCENS), has been launched and the development of several new software products outside of the MCS arena initiated. One of those products, SeaStation, is near completion with a Fall, 1995 release date. Equity investment in OCENS now totals $70,000-with an additional amount being sought in the first round of financing. One of the pre-eminent objectives of EOCAP II is to make contributions to the US economy and job growth through the expansion of commercial uses of remotely sensed data. OCENS and the software products it is introducing into marine and coastal zone markets responds to this primary object*e. EOCAP II funding leveraged the market and technical know-how of OCENS founders into smart products that benefit marine and coastal zone users. Although technical difficulties and geopolitical shifts damaged the commercial feasibility of initial project objectives, the flexibility of the EOCAP II program now permits long-term business success. This in no small part stems from the fact that the EOCAP program recognizes the realities of small and start-up businesses and does not attempt to force these conditions to fit the apparent needs of big government. Instead, EOCAP works with those who know their market best in order to produce successful products and expanding businesses.

Source record↗

Satellites as Shared Resources for Caribbean Climate and Health Studies

Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing climate and environment-related human health problems through increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, and surveillance of parameters useful to such problems as vector-borne and infectious diseases, air and water quality, harmful algal blooms, UV (ultraviolet) radiation, contaminant and pathogen transport in air and water, and thermal stress. Remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning systems (GPS), improved computational capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global health issues. Collaborative efforts among scientists from health and Earth sciences together with local decision-makers are enabling increased understanding of the relationships between changes in temperature, rainfall, wind, soil moisture, solar radiation, vegetation, and the patterns of extreme weather events and the occurrence and patterns of diseases (especially, infectious and vector-borne diseases) and other health problems. This increased understanding through improved information and data sharing, in turn, empowers local health and environmental officials to better predict health problems, take preventive measure, and improve response actions. This paper summarizes the remote sensing systems most useful for climate, environment and health studies of the Caribbean region and provides several examples of interdisciplinary research projects in the Caribbean currently using remote sensing technologies. These summaries include the use of remote sensing of algal blooms, pollution transport, coral reef monitoring, vectorborne disease studies, and potential health effects of African dust on Trinidad and Barbados.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

Real-Time UAV Trajectory Prediction for Safety Monitoring in Low-Altitude Airspace

The rising number of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) expected in the next decade will enable a new series of commercial, service, and military operations in low altitude airspace as well as above densely populated areas. These operations may include on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement operations, traffic surveillance and many more. Such unprecedented scenarios create the need for robust, efficient ways to monitor the UAV state in time to guarantee safety and mitigate contingencies throughout the operations. This work proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology that utilizes realtime measurements of an autonomous UAV following a series of way-points. Two different methods, based on sinusoidal acceleration profiles and high-order splines, are utilized to generate the predicted path. The monitoring approach includes dynamic trajectory re-planning in the event of unexpected detour or hovering of the UAV during flight. It can be further extended to different vehicle types, to quantify uncertainty affecting the state variables, e.g., aerodynamic and other environmental effects, and can also be implemented to prognosticate safety-critical metrics which depend on the estimated flight path and required thrust. The proposed framework is implemented on a simplified, scalable UAV modeling and control system traversing 3D trajectories. Results presented include examples of real-time predictions of the UAV trajectories during flight and a critical analysis of the proposed scenarios under uncertainty constraints.

UAV trajectory prognosis↗