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DOE OSTI2024

Error mitigation, optimization, and extrapolation on a trapped-ion testbed

Current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) trapped-ion devices are subject to errors which can significantly impact the accuracy of calculations if left unchecked. A form of error mitigation called zero noise extrapolation (ZNE) can decrease an algorithm’s sensitivity to these errors without increasing the number of required qubits. Here we explore different methods for integrating this error mitigation technique into the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) algorithm for calculating the ground state of the HeH + molecule at 0.8 Å in the presence of experimental noise. Using the Quantum Scientific Computing Open User Testbed (QSCOUT) trapped-ion device, we test three methods of scaling noise for extrapolation: time stretching the two-qubit gates, scaling the sideband detuning parameter, and inserting two-qubit gate identity operations into the ansatz circuit. We find that time stretching and sideband detuning scaling fail to scale the noise on our particular hardware in a way that can be extrapolated to zero noise. Scaling our noise with global gate identity insertions and extrapolating after variational optimization, we achieve error suppression of 96.8%, resulting in an energy estimate within –0.004 ± 0.04 hartree of the ground state energy. This is an improvement, but still outside the chemical accuracy threshold of 0.0016 hartree. Furthermore, our results show that the efficacy of this error mitigation technique depends on choosing the correct implementation for a given device architecture.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Error field measurements with rotating RMP fields for DIII-D H-mode

3D magnetic sensors are employed to identify the amplitude and toroidal phase of error fields (EF) by analyzing the torque balance for magnetic islands entrained by rotating resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) in DIII-D H-mode plasmas. This technique of torque balance allows for efficient error field identification, offering a valuable tool for scenario-specific and optimized error field compensation (EFC) and requires only magnetic diagnostics. The torque balance used in this work includes the contribution from electromagnetic torque due to error fields, wall response, RMP fields, and viscous. Results show that viscous torque plays a crucial role, particularly during locked modes and H-mode plasmas, ensuring accurate data fits with lower residuals. The torque balance technique reveals that the L- and H-mode plasmas have distinct EF configurations, and consistent with a model-based EF analysis including MHD response in IPEC and the SURFMN EF simulation. This technique shows great robustness in measuring the intrinsic EF amplitude regardless of its amplitude or toroidal phase. Repeated discharges with EFC disparities exhibit consistent results of intrinsic error field within a reasonable range near the “standard” error field compensation. Additionally, the use of a rotating n = 1 resonant magnetic perturbation offers the advantage of reducing disruption risks by entraining saturated magnetic islands. These findings are instrumental for optimizing EF correction in fusion devices, thereby enhancing tearing mode suppression and overall plasma stability.

3D magnetic sensors↗

DOE OSTI2025

Perturbative Stability and Error-Correction Thresholds of Quantum Codes

Topologically ordered phases are stable to local perturbations, and topological quantum error-correcting codes enjoy thresholds to local errors. We connect the two notions of stability by constructing classical statistical mechanics models for decoding general Calderbank-Shor-Steane codes and classical linear codes. Our construction encodes correction success probabilities under uncorrelated bit-flip and phase-flip errors, and simultaneously describes a generalized ℤ 2 lattice-gauge theory with quenched disorder. We observe that the clean limit of the latter is precisely the discretized imaginary-time path integral of the corresponding quantum code Hamiltonian when the errors are turned into a perturbative 𝑋 or 𝑍 magnetic field. Motivated by error-correction considerations, we define general order parameters for all such generalized ℤ 2 lattice-gauge theories, and show that they are generally lower bounded by success probabilities of error correction. For CSS codes satisfying the low-density parity-check condition and with a sufficiently large code distance, we prove the existence of a low-temperature ordered phase of the corresponding lattice-gauge theories, particularly for those lacking Euclidean spatial locality and/or when there is a nonzero code rate. We further argue that these results provide evidence for stable phases in the corresponding perturbed quantum Hamiltonians, obtained in the limit of continuous imaginary time. To do so, we distinguish space- and timelike defects in the lattice-gauge theory. A high free-energy cost of spacelike defects corresponds to a successful “memory experiment” and suppresses the energy splitting among the ground states, while a high free-energy cost of timelike defects corresponds to a successful “stability experiment” and points to a nonzero gap to local excitations.

quantum error correction↗

DOE OSTI2024

Putting error bars on density functional theory dataset

This dataset contains submission files and raw output files from high-throughput DFT simulations to analyze the systemic errors in lattice constant, bulk moduli and formation energy predictions for a range of binary and ternary oxides using four exchange correlation functionals (LDA, PBE, PBEsol and vdW-DF-C09). This data was then used as the basis for employing materials informatics methods to predict the expected errors in the lattice constants of the studied compounds. Predicted errors were also used to better the DFT-predicted lattice parameters. Our results emphasize the link between the computed errors and the electron density and hybridization errors of a functional. In essence, these results provide “error bars” for choosing a functional for the creation of high-accuracy, high-throughput datasets as well as avenues for the development of XC functionals with enhanced performance, thereby enabling the accelerated discovery and design of new materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Error Cancellation in Analog Quantum Simulation

Analog quantum simulation is a promising path towards solving classically intractable problems in many-body physics on near-term quantum devices. However, the presence of noise limits the size of the system and the length of time that can be simulated. In our work, we consider an error model in which the actual Hamiltonian of the simulator differs from the target Hamiltonian we want to simulate by small local perturbations, which are assumed to be random and unbiased. We analyze the error accumulated in observables in this setting and show that, due to stochastic error cancellation, with high probability the error scales as the square root of the number of qubits instead of linearly. We explore the concentration phenomenon of this error as well as its implications for local observables in the thermodynamic limit. Moreover, we show that stochastic error cancellation also manifests in the fidelity between the target state at the end of time-evolution and the actual state we obtain in the presence of noise. This indicates that, to reach a certain fidelity, more noise can be tolerated than implied by the worst-case bound if the noise comes from many statistically independent sources.

Analog quantum simulation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding and Estimating Error Propagation in Neural Networks for Scientific Data Analysis

Neural networks are increasingly integrated into scientific discovery, where input data reduction and model quantization play a key role in accelerating inference. However, understanding and mitigating the impact of these techniques on output error is critical for ensuring reliable results, particularly in tasks demanding high numerical precision. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing neural network inference in scientific computing by combining data reduction and weight quantization while maintaining error-controlled outcomes. We develop theoretical analyses to bound error propagation under these reductions and propose a framework that balances computational performance with error constraints. Evaluation on real-world learning-based combustion simulations and satellite image classification demonstrates that our derived error bounds accurately predict observed errors while enabling significant computational speedup under our framework. This work highlights the potential for further leveraging advancements in modern lossy compression algorithms and hardware accelerators that support lower-precision formats.

He, Weiming [New Jersey Institute of Technology]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Q-Cluster: Quantum Error Mitigation Through Noise-Aware Unsupervised Learning

Quantum error mitigation (QEM) is critical in reducing the impact of noise in the pre-fault-tolerant era, and is expected to complement error correction in fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). In this work, we propose a novel QEM approach, Q-Cluster, that uses unsupervised learning (clustering) to reshape the measured bit-string distribution. Our approach starts with a simplified bit-flip noise model. It first performs clustering on noisy measurement results, i.e., bit-strings, based on the Hamming distance. The centroid of each cluster is calculated using a qubit-wise majority vote. Next, the noisy distribution is adjusted with the clustering outcomes and the bitflip error rates using Bayesian inference. Our simulation results show that Q-Cluster can mitigate high noise rates (up to 40% per qubit) with the simple bit-flip noise model. However, real quantum computers do not fit such a simple noise model. To address the problem, we (a) apply Pauli twirling to tailor the complex noise channels to Pauli errors, and (b) employ a machine learning model, ExtraTrees regressor, to estimate an effective bit-flip error rate using a feature vector consisting of machine calibration data (gate & measurement error rates), circuit features (number of qubits, numbers of different types of gates, etc.) and the shape of the noisy distribution (entropy). Our experimental results show that our proposed Q-Cluster scheme improves the fidelity by a factor of 1.46x, on average, compared to the unmitigated output distribution, for a set of low-entropy benchmarks on five different IBM quantum machines. Our approach outperforms the state-of-art QEM approaches RZNE [28], M3 [24], Hammer [35], and QBEEP [33] by 1.26x,1.29x,1.47x, and 2.65 x, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Single Grid Error Estimation for Neutron Transport Solvers

The method of nearby problems (MNP) is a solution verification technique that does not require the use of multiple spatial grids. To estimate spatial discretization error without requiring a high-fidelity spatial grid, an analytical curve fit is interpolated from the numerical solution. The residual between the curve fit solution and numerical solution is calculated and added as an additional source term to the governing equation. The nearby solution is estimated using the updated source term and boundary conditions to remain consistent with the curve fit interpolation. The nearby solution can be compared to the curve fit solution as a discretization error estimation while using a single spatial grid. Without the use of higher fidelity spatial grids, the MNP is able to approximate the spatial discretization error, a facet of solution verification. The application of the method of nearby problems is presented for one- and two-dimensional neutron transport problems for both fixed source and criticality problems on the spatial variable. The fixed source results demonstrate the effectiveness of nearby problems for spatial error identification using the discrete ordinates method. Criticality results are shown to identify area of high spatial error for the C5G7 problem as well as for the discrete ordinates solver. A novel approach of combining the capabilities of Monte Carlo with the discrete ordinates nearby problems is presented for one- and two-dimensional fixed source problems. In conclusion, the MNP demonstrates its effectiveness at identifying spatial error on a single structured grid with a wide variety of neutron transport problems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage solar and wind forecast error. Because solar and wind forecast errors tend to be weakly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the benefits of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeastern United States, in scenarios in which solar and wind generation ranges from 34% to 65% of total generation. It finds that day-ahead forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity (6%-10% of total capacity), but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce these requirements (by 6%-29%). It finds that, in economic terms, the value of forecast error reserve sharing ($\$$0.09-$\$$1.24 billion per year, $\$$0.12-$\$$1.68/MWh of load across scenarios) tends to decline with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower reserve and energy prices. Even with declines in reserve prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value, though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-Aware and Explainable Human Error Detection in the Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

The timely and accurate identification of incidents, such as human factor error, is important to restore nuclear power plants (NPPs) to a stable state. However, the identification of abnormal operating conditions is difficult because of the existence of multiple scenarios. In addition, to implement mitigation actions rapidly after an incident occurs, operators must accurately identify an incident by monitoring the trends of many variables. The mental burden posed by this can increase human error and cause failure in identifying incidents. Failure to identify incidents directly results in erroneous mitigation measures, which are detrimental to NPPs. In this study, we leverage uncertainty-aware models to identify such errors and thereby increase the chances of mitigating them. We use the data collected from a physical test bed. The goal is to identify both certain and accurate models. For this, the two main aspects of focus in this study are explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) and uncertainty quantification (UQ). While XAI elucidates the decision pathway, UQ evaluates decision reliability. Their integration paints a comprehensive picture, signifying that understanding decisions and their confidence should be interlinked. Thus, in this study we leverage UQ measures (e.g. entropy and mutual information) along with Shapley additive explanations to gain insights into the features contributing to both accuracy and uncertainty in error identification. Furthermore, our results show that uncertainty-aware models combined with XAI tools can explain the artificial intelligence–prescribed decisions, with the potential of better explaining errors for the operators.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying local and global mass balance errors in physics-informed neural networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINN) have recently become attractive for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) that describe physics laws. By including PDE-based loss functions, physics laws such as mass balance are enforced softly in PINN. This paper investigates how mass balance constraints are satisfied when PINN is used to solve the resulting PDEs. We investigate PINN’s ability to solve the 1D saturated groundwater flow equations (diffusion equations) for homogeneous and heterogeneous media and evaluate the local and global mass balance errors. We compare the obtained PINN’s solution and associated mass balance errors against a two-point finite volume numerical method and the corresponding analytical solution. We also evaluate the accuracy of PINN in solving the 1D saturated groundwater flow equation with and without incorporating hydraulic heads as training data. We demonstrate that PINN’s local and global mass balance errors are significant compared to the finite volume approach. Tuning the PINN’s hyperparameters, such as the number of collocation points, training data, hidden layers, nodes, epochs, and learning rate, did not improve the solution accuracy or the mass balance errors compared to the finite volume solution. Mass balance errors could considerably challenge the utility of PINN in applications where ensuring compliance with physical and mathematical properties is crucial.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Commissioning of Large Machine Tools Using Finite Element-Based Correction of Geometric Errors

Large computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools derive their stiffness from monolithic cast iron bases or weldments that are sometimes integral to machine motion systems like box ways or guideways. However, the sheer size of castings and even floor flatness deviations result in dimensional errors in these systems, which manifest as machine motion errors. Typical geometric alignment processes rely on an iterative approach, where measurements are taken to assess alignment (straightness, squareness, and parallelism), followed by adjustment of the machine supports (fixators or leveling pads), which can take weeks even for an experienced operator. Conversely, a novel method is proposed to shorten the correction time by eliminating the trial-and-error process in favor of a more deterministic approach guided by a finite element (FE) method. A feasibility study is conducted on a CNC polymer hybrid machine, with a steel weldment frame, supported by six leveling pads. An FE model of the frame is utilized to obtain recommended leveling pad adjustments, based on measurement of machine errors taken using a laser tracker. After a single adjustment cycle, measurements reveal that geometric errors of the machine tool are reduced from 2.22 mm of flatness deviation to 0.32 mm, achieving an 85.6% reduction. Furthermore, the entire process including measurement, adjustment, and assessment is completed in just 6 h by two operators who are not professional service engineers. In conclusion, this methodology demonstrates feasibility for scaling up, especially to large, high-precision CNC machine tools with bases mounted by fixators, offering the capability for bidirectional adjustment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing ZFP: A Statistical Approach to Understanding and Reducing Error Bias in a Lossy Floating-Point Compression Algorithm

The amount of data generated and gathered in scientific simulations and data collection applications is continuously growing, putting mounting pressure on storage and bandwidth concerns. A means of reducing such issues is data compression; but, lossless data compression is typically ineffective when applied to floating-point data. Thus, users tend to apply a lossy data compressor, which allows for small deviations from the original data. It is essential to understand how the error from lossy compression impacts the accuracy of the data analytics. Thus, we must analyze not only the compression properties but the error as well. In this paper, we provide a statistical analysis of the error caused by ZFP compression, a state-of-the-art, lossy compression algorithm explicitly designed for floating-point data. We show that the error is indeed biased and propose simple modifications to the algorithm to neutralize the bias and further reduce the resulting error.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Halogen Thermochemistry Assessed with Density Functional Theory: Systematic Errors, Swift Corrections and Effects on Electrochemistry

Abstract Despite its sizable errors, density functional theory (DFT) is extensively used to evaluate thermochemical properties of gases, liquids and their interfaces with solids. As numerous halogen‐containing compounds appear as reactants, products and/or electrolytes in electrochemical reactions, and ionic effects are currently an active area of research, it is important to evaluate the accuracy of DFT for halogen thermochemistry. Herein, we assess the formation energies of interhalogens, hydrogen halides, diatomic and atomic halogens and their ions using six widespread functionals at the GGA, meta‐GGA and hybrid levels. We observe that DFT errors with respect to experiments are correlated with the electronegativity of the species and there are systematic trends across functionals, such that swift corrections were devised. Specifically, the average of the mean absolute errors for the six functionals decreased from 0.19 eV before the corrections to 0.08 eV after them. Besides, the overall maximum absolute error (MAX) decreased from 0.76 to 0.44 eV and the average of the MAXs decreased from 0.51 to 0.24 eV. Finally, we illustrate the qualitative and quantitative impact of gas‐phase errors on the predictions of surface Pourbaix diagrams.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Using Density-Corrected DFT to Understand Density-Driven and Functional-Dependent Errors in Ab Initio Simulations of the Hydrated Electron

The hydrated electron, an excess electron in liquid water, plays a crucial role in a plethora of chemical processes, motivating extensive research efforts to characterize its structure, dynamics, and reactivity in solution. Recent theoretical approaches to understanding this intriguing object have involved ab initio simulations based on density functional theory (DFT). Although DFT allows for the study of hydrated electron reactivity and quantum mechanical behavior, it is well-known that anionic systems can suffer from significant density-driven errors (DDEs). Density-corrected DFT (DC-DFT) provides a framework to mitigate such errors; the method reduces DDEs by replacing the self-consistent (SC) density associated with a given density functional with the Hartree–Fock (HF) density. Since HF densities tend to be more localized than DFT SC densities, the DC-DFT scheme significantly improves errors in calculations where the SC density is spuriously delocalized. Here, we investigate how the use of density correction affects the calculated properties of the DFT-simulated (PBEh) hydrated electron, a particularly challenging diffuse anionic system to simulate. First, we analyze charge delocalization in a system consisting of a model octahedral hydrated electron water cluster (the so-called Kevan structure) along with a spatially separated sulfur atom. We show that the use of density correction indeed reduces DDEs in comparison to a standard DFT global hybrid functional. We then propagate molecular dynamics trajectories of the hydrated electron using DC-DFT, where we find that DC further localizes electron density in the cavity region, a signature of reduced charge delocalization. Unfortunately, the decreased radius of gyration of the spin density and corresponding tightening of the local solvation structure from density correction causes predicted observables to deviate further from experimental measurements than when density correction is not employed. Here, we argue that DC’s worse agreement with experiment results from the removal of a fortuitous cancellation of errors that is intrinsic to the PBEh functional. This indicates that the difficulties with DFT to simulate hydrated electrons are primarily due to the inherent approximations in DFT rather than to density-driven errors.

Density functional theory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synchronous detection of cosmic rays and correlated errors in superconducting qubit arrays

Quantum information processing at scale will require sufficiently stable and long-lived qubits, likely enabled by error-correction codes. Several recent superconducting-qubit experiments, however, reported observing intermittent spatiotemporally correlated errors that would be problematic for conventional codes, with ionizing radiation being a likely cause. Here, we directly measured the cosmic-ray contribution to spatiotemporally correlated qubit errors. We accomplished this by synchronously monitoring cosmic-ray detectors and qubit energy-relaxation dynamics of 10 transmon qubits distributed across a 5 × 5 × 0.35 mm 3 silicon chip. Cosmic rays caused correlated errors at a rate of $1/\left(592\begin{array}{c}+48\\ -41\end{array}\,{\rm{s}}\right)$, accounting for 17.1 ± 1.3% of all such events. Our qubits responded to essentially all of the cosmic rays and their secondary particles incident on the chip, consistent with the independently measured arrival flux. Moreover, we observed that the landscape of the superconducting gap in proximity to the Josephson junctions dramatically impacts the qubit response to cosmic rays. Given the practical difficulties associated with shielding cosmic rays, our results indicate the importance of radiation hardening—for example, superconducting gap engineering—to the realization of robust quantum error correction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the errors of high-fidelity two-qubit gates in silicon quantum dots

Achieving high-fidelity entangling operations between qubits consistently is essential for the performance of multi-qubit systems. Solid-state platforms are particularly exposed to errors arising from materials-induced variability between qubits, which leads to performance inconsistencies. Here we study the errors in a spin qubit processor, tying them to their physical origins. We use this knowledge to demonstrate consistent and repeatable operation with above 99% fidelity of two-qubit gates in the technologically important silicon metal-oxide-semiconductor quantum dot platform. Analysis of the physical errors and fidelities in multiple devices over extended periods allows us to ensure that we capture the variation and the most common error types. Physical error sources include the slow nuclear and electrical noise on single qubits and contextual noise that depends on the applied control sequence. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of qubit design, feedback systems and robust gate design to inform the design of future scalable, high-fidelity control strategies. Our results highlight both the capabilities and challenges for the scaling-up of silicon spin-based qubits into full-scale quantum processors.

Quantum dots↗