Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Error Rate Predictions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Learning quantum computers' errors using interpretable neural networks

Learning and reducing the errors and noise in quantum computing systems is necessary for achieving quantum computation’s promise. However, rapid advances in experimental quantum computing are making this task increasingly difficult, because state-of-the-art systems now contain hundreds of qubits and many characterization techniques are hard to apply at this scale. Furthermore, complex kinds of errors in these systems, such as crosstalk and non-Markovian effects, must be understood and decreased, but these errors are challenging to study with most existing methods. In this project, we explored using neural networks for scalable characterization of complex errors in quantum computers. We proposed and demonstrated characterizing a quantum computer’s errors with neural networks that have interpretable parameters corresponding to the rates of different kinds of errors, within a sparse Lindbladian parameterization for errors. To enable scaling to many qubit systems, these networks then predict how these errors combine within quantum circuits and impact their outcomes using an efficient approximations. We demonstrated these networks ability to learn coherent crosstalk errors and context-dependent errors in a simulated 4-qubit system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Forecasting Battery Electrode Performance via Electrochemical Fluorescence Microscopy and Machine-Learning

Predicting lithium-ion battery performance is hindered by microscale electrode heterogeneities invisible to conventional diagnostics. Here, we combine electrochemical fluorescence microscopy (EFM), which maps electronic connectivity by visualizing an electrofluorophore reaction distribution, with a multitask ElasticNet regression to forecast discharge capacity from spatial heterogeneity. Analyzing 196 images from six pilot-scale LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 cathodes with varying carbon loadings, we extract 62 descriptors that capture morphology and texture. A compact five-feature model predicts capacity across eight discharge rates, achieving a per-target R 2 of up to 0.63 and an overall R 2 of 0.92, with a mean absolute percentage error of less than 2%. This performance rivals impedance-based approaches while avoiding their reliance on postformation data and incomplete electronic network information. Our facile and rapid, image-driven method may enable electrode quality control upstream of costly cell assembly to offer a transformative tool for data-driven battery research and manufacturing.

battery electrodes

Prediction of laser beam spatial profiles in a high-energy laser facility by use of deep learning

We adapt the significant advances achieved recently in the field of generative artificial intelligence/machine-learning to laser performance modeling in multipass, high-energy laser systems with application to high-shot-rate facilities relevant to inertial fusion energy. Advantages of neural-network architectures include rapid prediction capability, data-driven processing, and the possibility to implement such architectures within future low-latency, low-power consumption photonic networks. Four models were investigated that differed in their generator loss functions and utilized the U-Net encoder/decoder architecture with either a reconstruction loss alone or combined with an adversarial network loss. We achieved inference times of 1.3 ms for a 256 × 256 pixel near-field beam with errors in predicted energy of the order of 1% over most of the energy range. It is shown that prediction errors are significantly reduced by ensemble averaging the models with different weight initializations. These results suggest that including the temporal dimension in such models may provide accurate, real-time spatiotemporal predictions of laser performance in high-shot-rate laser systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Development of a River Dynamical Core for E3SM to simulate compound flooding on Exascale-class heterogeneous supercomputers

Flooding events pose significant risk to human life, property, and infrastructure. Physically-consistent quantification of altered flood risks in global models requires hyper-resolution (~1 km) or fine flood simulations using two-dimensional (2D) physics schemes, both of which are unavailable in the current generation Earth System Models. Here, in this work, we have developed the River Dynamical Core (RDycore), which is an open-source, 2D shallow water equation (SWE) library for the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). RDycore uses PETSc and libCEED libraries that allows it to run efficiently on CPUs and GPUs, as well as select a time-integration algorithm at runtime without requiring any code modifications. RDycore achieves spatial error convergence rates for problems with analytical and manufactured solutions similar to those reported previously in the literature, or consistent with the implemented first-order spatial discretization scheme. RDycore's accuracy in predicting flooding for a well-studied dam break problem is comparable to existing SWE models. For a problem with 471 million grid cells, RDycore achieves a speedup of 6.6x and 7.6x on GPUs compared to CPUs when using 320 compute nodes on DOE's Perlmutter and Frontier supercomputers, respectively. The one-way coupling of the RDycore library within E3SM is demonstrated by performing multiple 5-day flooding simulations during Hurricane Harvey driven by five precipitation datasets. The E3SM--RDycore simulations at 30 m spatial resolution accurately simulate maximum water height during the hurricane when benchmarked against a previously published study and achieve a speedup of 15x (Perlmutter) and 21x (Frontier) on GPUs relative to CPUs. The work presented here is the foundational step in providing hardware and algorithmic portability framework for simulating kilometer-scale river dynamics within E3SM.

Flood Simulation

Validating corrosion models: A comparison of governing equations

Experimental validation of Finite Element Method (FEM) models varying electrochemical governing equations, inclusion of chemical reactions, and time on the resultant damage profile for two galvanic couples is explored. Two anode materials (Magnesium AZ31 and Carbon Steel) in contact with a cathode (Stainless Steel 304 L) were modeled in/exposed to NaCl (1 and 0.1 M respectively for the anode materials) for up to one week. The physics approach, inclusion of chemical reactions, and the boundary conditions required to accurately represent the damage profile in FEM models depended on the galvanic couple materials and, ultimately, the corrosion rate. For high rates of corrosion (i.e., magnesium anode), the Nernst-Planck equation with Electroneutrality was sufficient to describe the damage, while, for low rates of corrosion (i.e., carbon steel anode), the Laplace equation was sufficient. In all cases, the most complete governing equation (Nernst-Planck-Poisson Equation) was not necessary to accurately describe the damage. Precipitation reactions in solution also played a critical role in the predicted damage profile, especially for high corrosion rate systems. Finally, for short time periods (< 6 h), the choice of governing equations does not significantly influence damage profile results. Overall, the choice of physics to reduce error in simulations relies on the boundary conditions, geometry, conductivity of the solution, electrochemical potential differences, and time of exposure. The above results are discussed with regard to accuracy and computational savings.

Carbon steel

Secure State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements for Coordinated Cyber Attack Detection in Active Distribution Systems

Coordinated cyber attacks tamper with measurement data to disrupt the situational awareness of active distribution systems. Various sensors report measurements asynchronously at different rates, which introduces challenges during state estimation. In addition, this forces cyber intruders to exert greater effort to compromise multiple communication channels and launch coordinated attacks. Therefore, multi-channel and asynchronous measurements could be harnessed to develop more secure cyber defense strategies. In this paper, a prediction-correction-based multi-rate observer is designed to exploit the value of asynchronous measurements for the detection of coordinated false data injection (FDI) attacks. First, a time-function-dependent prediction-correction strategy is proposed to adjust the sampling interval for each sensor’s measurement. Then, an observer is designed based on the trade-off between estimation error and the optimal period of the most recent sampling instant, with the convergence of estimation error with the maximum permitted sampling interval. Moreover, the conditions for exponential stability are developed using the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional technique. Next, a coordinated FDI attack detection strategy is developed based on the dual nonlinear minimization problem. The proposed attack detection and secure state estimation strategies are tested on the IEEE 13-node system. Simulation results show that these schemes are effective in enhancing attack detection based on asynchronous measurements or compromised data.

asynchronous measurements

Catalytic resonance theory for parametric uncertainty of programmable catalysis

Microkinetic models are useful tools for screening catalytic materials; however, errors in their input parameters can lead to significant uncertainty in model predictions of catalyst performance. Here, in this work, we investigate the impact of linear scaling and Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi relation parametric uncertainty on microkinetic predictions of programmable-catalyst performance. Two case studies are considered: a generic A-to-B prototype reaction and the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). The results show that error-unaware models can accurately predict trends and, for the prototype reaction, values of optimal waveform parameters. The specific model parameters driving output uncertainty are identified via variance-based global sensitivity analysis. However, predictions of dynamic rate enhancement can decrease when uncertainty is propagated into the models. In both cases, we identify operating conditions where the programmable catalyst achieves a rate enhancement of at least one order of magnitude despite parametric uncertainty in the model, supporting programmable catalysis as a viable strategy for exceeding the Sabatier limit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Developing a complete AI-accelerated workflow for superconductor discovery

The quest to identify new superconducting materials with enhanced properties is hindered by the prohibitive cost of computing electron-phonon spectral functions, severely limiting the materials space that can be explored. Here, we introduce a Bootstrapped Ensemble of Equivariant Graph Neural Networks (BEE-NET), a machine-learning model trained to predict the Eliashberg spectral function and superconducting critical temperature with a mean-absolute-error of 0.87 K relative to DFT-based Allen-Dynes calculations. Intriguingly, BEE-NET achieves a true-negative-rate of 99.4%, enabling highly efficient screening for the rare property of superconductivity. Integrated into a multi-stage, AI-accelerated discovery pipeline that incorporates elemental-substitution strategies and machine-learned interatomic potentials, our workflow reduced over 1.3 million candidate structures to 741 dynamically and thermodynamically stable compounds with DFT-confirmed T c > 5 K. We report the successful synthesis and experimental confirmation of superconductivity in two of these previously unreported compounds. This study establishes a data-driven framework that integrates machine learning, quantum calculations, and experiments to systematically accelerate superconductor discovery.

Gibson, Jason B. [Quantum Formatics, Cambridge, MA

ab initio Sub-Mechanism Development for Cyclopentene Oxidation

To accurately predict low-temperature oxidation behavior, chemical kinetics mechanisms must contain complete reaction networks that include detailed consumption reactions of intermediates produced directly from hydroperoxyalkyl radicals, Q̇OOH, which undergo competing unimolecular reactions and bimolecular reactions with O2. Rates of chain-branching are governed by the flux between the two competing pathways, and inherently depend on temperature, pressure, and oxygen concentration. Neglect of consumption pathways for major oxidation intermediates leads to mechanism truncation error that is ameliorated by expanding the level of detail included in sub-mechanisms and employing ab initio methods for computing rates of elementary reactions and thermochemical properties of species involved. In the present work, an ab initio-derived sub-mechanism is developed using AutoMech to model the chemical kinetics of cyclopentene, a major product of cyclopentane oxidation. The ab initio sub-mechanism builds on a detailed mechanism developed using Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) for the specific purpose of determining the extent to which replacing cyclopentene-specific reactions and species with quantum chemical computations reduces model inaccuracies resulting from mechanism truncation error. In an effort to minimize interference from other reactions present during the formation of cyclopentene from cyclopentyl + O2, providing a narrower experimental scope, the model is compared against speciation measurements from jet-stirred reactor (JSR) experiments on cyclopentene oxidation. The experiments utilize vacuum ultraviolet-absorption spectroscopy and mass spectrometry for isomer-resolved speciation of intermediates at 835 Torr from 700 – 950 K. [O2]-dependent experiments were also conducted from 0.057 – 2.01 · 1018 molecules cm–3 at 825 K to examine the influence of oxygen on species profiles. Model predictions using the ab initio-revised mechanism yielded significant improvements in species profiles for both the temperature- and [O2]-dependent measurements, owing in part to increased rates of HOȮ and H2O2 production, which underscores the influence of theoretical calculations of reaction rates involving species produced from Ṙ + O2 such as cyclopentene.

AutoMech

Modeling injection-induced fault slip using long short-term memory networks

Stress changes due to changes in fluid pressure and temperature in a faulted formation may lead to the opening/shearing of the fault. This can be due to subsurface (geo)engineering activities such as fluid injections and geologic disposal of nuclear waste. Such activities are expected to rise in the future making it necessary to assess their short- and long-term safety. Here, a new machine learning (ML) approach to model pore pressure and fault displacements in response to high-pressure fluid injection cycles is developed. The focus is on fault behavior near the injection borehole. To capture the temporal dependencies in the data, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are utilized. To prevent error accumulation within the forecast window, four critical measures to train a robust LSTM model for predicting fault response are highlighted: (i) setting an appropriate value of LSTM lag, (ii) calibrating the LSTM cell dimension, (iii) learning rate reduction during weight optimization, and (iv) not adopting an independent injection cycle as a validation set. Several numerical experiments were conducted, which demonstrated that the ML model can capture peaks in pressure and associated fault displacement that accompany an increase in fluid injection. The model also captured the decay in pressure and displacement during the injection shut-in period. Further, the ability of an ML model to highlight key changes in fault hydromechanical activation processes was investigated, which shows that ML can be used to monitor risk of fault activation and leakage during high pressure fluid injections.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics

This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.

Data Assimilation

Efficient and generalizable nested Fourier-DeepONet for three-dimensional geological carbon sequestration

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) involves injecting CO2 into subsurface geological formationsfor permanent storage. Numerical simulations could guide decisions in GCS projects by predictingCO 2 migration pathways and the pressure distribution in storage formation. However, these simula-tions are often computationally expensive due to highly coupled physics and large spatial-temporalsimulation domains. Surrogate modelling with data-driven machine learning has become a promis-ing alternative to accelerate physics-based simulations. Among these, the Fourier neural operator(FNO) has been applied to three-dimensional synthetic subsurface models. Despite its good accuracyin simulating CO 2 plume migration, it requires large computational resources in training and alsolacks generalizability. Here, to further improve performance, we have developed a nested Fourier-DeepONet by combining the expressiveness of the FNO with the modularity of a deep operatornetwork (DeepONet). This new framework is twice as efficient as a nested FNO for training and has atleast 80% lower GPU memory requirement due to its flexibility to treat temporal coordinates sepa-rately. These performance improvements are achieved without compromising prediction accuracy.In addition, the generalization and extrapolation ability of nested Fourier-DeepONet beyond thetraining range has been thoroughly evaluated. Nested Fourier-DeepONet outperformed the nestedFNO for extrapolation in time with more than 50% reduced error. It also exhibited good extrapolationaccuracy beyond the training range in terms of reservoir properties, number of wells, and injectionrate.

Lee, Jonathan E. [Department of Chemical and Envir

Simulation and Experimental Validation of an Integrated Heat Pump – Thermal Energy Storage Using a Room-Temperature Phase Change Material

As the dependence on electrical heat pumps (HPs) and intermittent renewables increases, grid strains are expected to grow. This necessitates an energy storage system to reduce the mismatch between energy supply and demand. Thus, a proposed dual-mode commercially available 14.1 kW HP was integrated with a single 22°C phase change material (PCM) thermal storage system (TES) to load-shift both cooling and heating loads. The HP-TES system was manufactured and experimentally tested using a novel test matrix based on AHRI 210/240 psychrometric conditions. Furthermore, transient dual-mode system-level HP-TES models were developed in Modelica and validated using the experimental test conditions. Base HP cooling and heating experimental tests at ambient temperatures of 35°C and −8.3°C show that the modified HP-TES maintained the rated system capacity and performance. The HP-TES discharge provided approximately 30% and 50% reductions in cooling and heating demand, respectively. The transient HP-TES models predicted system capacity and total power input for discharge and recharge operating modes within ±4% mean percentage error, and recharge power input within ±2%, with maximum errors occurring at the equipment startup. During system operation, the sources of model deviations are first-order polynomial fits of the PCM digital scanning calorimetry (DSC) data and unaccounted supercooling in the PCM during solidification. Nonetheless, the model predictions agree with the experimental tests, demonstrating the availability of robust, accurate, and validated transient models that can be used for further validation and the development of system controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Real-time monitoring of trace noble gases using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy—An investigation of the impact of bulk gas on plasma properties and sensitivity

The impact of Ar and He bulk gases on laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) real-time monitoring of trace Xe and Kr was assessed. LIBS is being developed as a monitoring tool for measuring noble gas transport in molten salt systems, in which traditional sensors may face challenges associated with radiation, corrosive materials, and/or mixed phases. The plasma temperature and electron densities of LIBS plasmas were measured in both static and various flowing Ar and He streams (0–5 L min −1 ). The use of an Ar bulk gas resulted in higher plasma temperature, greater electron densities by an order of magnitude, and extended plasma lifetime compared with when He bulk gas was used. Gas flow rate was found to have little impact on plasma temperature; however, its effect on electron density was significant, indicating the need to consider flow rate–specific models. Matrix effects on emission peaks were reported for both bulk gases. Due to these matrix effects, multivariate models were developed for Xe and Kr ranging from 0 to 700 ppm in both bulk gases. Although the predictive behavior was similar (root mean square error of prediction ranging from 11.1 to 20.6 ppm), the limits of detection were superior in He (Xe: 22.9 ppm, Kr: 30.4 ppm). Furthermore, these models were employed in demonstrative real-time tests (>1 h), which showed strong predictive precision (relative standard deviation <5 %) regardless of the bulk gas. Ultimately, this study provides a guide for the considerations required when developing gaseous LIBS models for real-time monitoring.

Gas flow effects

A cryogenic muon tagging system based on kinetic inductance detectors for superconducting quantum processors

Ionizing radiation has emerged as a potential limiting factor for superconducting quantum processors, inducing quasiparticle bursts and correlated errors that challenge fault-tolerant operation. Atmospheric muons are particularly problematic due to their high energy and penetration power, making passive shielding ineffective. Therefore, monitoring the real-time muon flux is crucial to guide the development of alternative error-correction or mitigation strategies. We present the design, simulation, and first operation of a cryogenic muon-tagging system based on kinetic inductance detectors (KIDs), developed as a stand-alone cryogenic particle-tagging module for superconducting quantum processors. The system consists of two KIDs arranged in a vertical stack and operated at ∼20 mK. Monte Carlo simulations based on Geant4 guided the prototype design and provided reference expectations for muon-tagging efficiency and accidental coincidences due to ambient γ-rays. We observed a muon-induced coincidence rate among the top and bottom detectors of (192 ± 9) $\times\,10^{-3}$ events s$^{−1}$, in excellent agreement with the Monte Carlo prediction. The prototype achieves a muon-tagging efficiency of about 90% with negligible dead time. These results demonstrate the feasibility of operating a muon-tagging system at millikelvin temperatures and represent a key step toward the integration of cryogenic veto systems with multi-qubit chips to mitigate muon-induced errors.

Mariani, Ambra [INFN, Rome] (ORCID:000000028184857

Coupled Induction Machine and HVAC Models for Simulating HVAC Performance Considering Grid Dynamics in Buildings

This paper presents the development of novel models that integrate induction machines with HVAC equipment, such as pumps, heat pumps, and chillers, to analyze the impact of electrical parameters on the operational performance of thermo-fluid systems. The proposed model employs a coupling technique that captures the dynamic interactions between induction machines and HVAC systems. By integrating electrical, thermal, and mechanical dynamics, the models provide a comprehensive framework for simulating real-world scenarios, including interactions with the electrical grid. This achievement was made possible through the development of a Computationally Efficient and Accurate Induction Machine (CEAIM) model. Implemented using the equation-based Modelica language, the CEAIM model has been validated against experimental results, manufacturer data sheets, and various operating conditions. Its performance has been compared with existing induction machine models in the Modelica Standard Library (MSL), demonstrating superior accuracy and computational efficiency. The CEAIM model predicts torque, speed, and power consumption with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) ranging from 0.98 to 1 and a coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CVRMSE) between 0.27% and 6.67%. Additionally, CEAIM scales more efficiently than conventional MSL models, with a slower computational growth rate in large-scale simulations. After thorough validation of the CEAIM model, it was coupled with HVAC equipment as this approach provides a detailed multi-dimensional view of capturing electrical transients and mechanical performance. To support this, a case study was conducted to showcase its capabilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

On the minimum number of radiation field parameters to specify gas cooling and heating functions

Fast and accurate approximations of gas cooling and heating functions are needed for hydrodynamic galaxy simulations. We use machine learning to analyze atomic gas cooling and heating functions in the presence of a generalized incident local radiation field computed by Cloudy. We characterize the radiation field through binned radiation field intensities instead of the photoionization rates used in our previous work. We find a set of 6 energy bins whose intensities exhibit relatively low correlation. We use these bins as features to train machine learning models to predict Cloudy cooling and heating functions at fixed metallicity. We compare the relative SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) value importance of the features. From the SHAP analysis, we identify a feature subset of 3 energy bins (0.5-1, 1-4, and 13-16Ry) with the largest importance and train additional models on this subset. We compare the mean squared errors and distribution of errors on both the entire training data table and a randomly selected 20% test set withheld from model training. The machine learning models trained with 3 and 6 bins, as well as 3 and 4 photoionization rates, have comparable accuracy everywhere, with errors ≳10 times smaller than for the interpolation table of Gnedin and Hollon (2012). We conclude that 3 energy bins (or 3 analogous photoionization rates: molecular hydrogen photodissociation, neutral hydrogen HI, and fully ionized carbon CVI) are sufficient to characterize the dependence of the gas cooling and heating functions on our assumed incident radiation field model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS