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At least 37 records · Page 2

Mesoscale generation of available potential energy in the warm sector of an extratropical cyclone

The generation of available potential energy (APE) was evaluated in the warm sector of an extratropical cyclone containing intense convective activity. Mesoscale rawinsonde data from AVE-SESAME '79 was employed. Parametrization techniques were used for latent and sensible heating components, and variations for the Kuo scheme provided convective latent heat release. Radiative transfer models were used to obtain estimates of infrared and solar processes. The results indicated that solar heating was greater than IR cooling near midday. An extensive low-level cloud deck was the most radiatively active area. Negative generation of APE occurred during most of the period for the SESAME domain as a whole. The leading contributor was convective latent heating located primarily in regions of negative efficiency. Infrared cooling was the only component to consistently produce positive generation. Sensible heating provided an important sink of APE in the low levels during the afternoon.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

A preliminary computer pattern analysis of satellite images of mature extratropical cyclones

This study has applied computerized pattern analysis techniques to the location and classification of features of several mature extratropical cyclones that were depicted in GOES satellite images. These features include the location of the center of the cyclone vortex core and the location of the associated occluded front. The cyclone type was classified in accord with the scheme of Troup and Streten. The present analysis was implemented on a personal computer; results were obtained within approximately one or two minutes without the intervention of an analyst.

Burfeind, Craig R.↗

A Composite Diagnosis of Synoptic-Scale Extratropical Cyclone Development over the United States

This paper presents a composite diagnosis of synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms associated with extratropical cyclone evolution. Drawn from 12 cyclone cases that occurred over the continental United States during the cool season months, the diagnosis provides a 'climatology' of development mechanisms for difference categories of cyclone evolution ranging from cyclone weakening through three stages of cyclone intensification. Computational results were obtained using an 'extended' form of the Zwack-Okossi equation applied to routine upper-air and surface data analyzed on a 230 km x 230 km grid. Results show that cyclonic vorticity advection, which maximizes in the upper troposphere, was the primary contributor to cyclone development regardless of the stage of development. A second consistent contributor to development was latent heat release. Horizontal temperature advection, often acknowledged as a development mechanism, was found to contribute to development only during more intense stages. During weakening and weaker development stages, temperature advection opposed development, as the warm-air advection invariably found at upper levels was dominated by cold air advection in the lower half of the troposphere. In the more intense stages, development was moderated by dry-adiabatic cooling associated with the ascending vertical motions.

Rolfson, Donald M.↗

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events

Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utilization of satellite cloud information to diagnose the energy state and transformations in extratropical cyclones

A study of the contribution of latent heat release to the synoptic scale vertical motions in the Jan. 9-11, 1975 extratropical cyclone case study was completed. Results indicate that early cyclone development was dominated by dry dynamical forcing. However, as the cyclone matured, the influence of latent heating became more significant. This influence appeared to be of two types, (1) the direct impact of heating causing a lowering of surface pressures, and (2) an indirect role in which the heating altered thermal and vorticity gradients and lead to subsequent increases in dry dynamical forcing. The kinetic energy budget was completed and extended to include an available potential energy budget. Focusing on the eddy component of the budgets, results indicate that kinetic energy increased throughout the cyclone's development, with the increase being most pronounced after the onset of significant latent heat release. Latent heating played a strong role not only in generating available potential energy, but also in forcing baroclinic release of potential energy.

Smith, P. J.↗

Observational-numerical Study of Maritime Extratropical Cyclones Using FGGE Data

The accomplishments, current research, and future plans of a study investigating the development, maturation, and decay of maritime extratropical cyclones are reported. Three cases of explosive cyclogenesis during the first GARP global experiment (FGGE) DOP-1 were studied diagnostically using storm-following budgets derived from the ECMWF and GLAS level III-b analyses. Mass, vorticity and angular momentum budgets for the moving storm environment were computed for each case. Key results from these studies include: (1) demonstration that the FGGE analyses can be used to explore oceanic circulations; (2) isolation of the role of upper level jet streaks in the initiation of the explosive period in all three cases; and (3) illustration of the lower tropospheric destabilization during each rapid deepening period, which is primarily due to sensible heating of the cold air by the warmer ocean surface. The physics package of the Navy global forecast model was successfully utilized in a semi-prognostic mode to estimate diabatic components of oceanic cyclone systems. Fields of sensible and latent heat fluxes, radiational heating and inferred cloud structures were also computed.

Wash, C. H.↗

A comparison of observed and model energy balance for an extratropical cyclone system

Eddy kinetic energy budgets are presented for both moist and dry 48 h forecasts and corresponding observations of a developing winter extratropical cyclone. A diagnosis of observational data energetics is presented and compared with model results for an intense, occluding winter cyclone associated with a strong, well-developed jet stream. The nature of the eddy kinetic energy sources and sinks associated with the strong baroclinic development occurring in this cyclonic system is examined, and the extent to which to observed energy sources and sinks are present in the numerical predictions is addressed. The possibility of explaining differences between the observed and predicted cyclone systems by analyzing these kinetic energy properties is considered.

Dare, P. M.↗

The impact of latent heat release on synoptic-scale vertical motions and the development of an extratropical cyclone system

This study investigates the influence of stable and convective latent heat release on synoptic-scale vertical motions and the corresponding evolution of an extratropical cyclone during a 48 h period of strong development. The cyclone's early evolution was dominated by dry dynamical processes. By midway through the period, however, forcing by latent heat release accounted for over 50 percent of the upward vertical motions, with the convective component dominating. The cyclone's development was most intense during the second 24 h, despite a decrease in latent heat release. During the latter period, the reduced direct latent heat influence may have been augmented by an indirect influence, in which pre-existing dry dynamical forcing was enhanced by diabatic intensification of vorticity and thermal gradients.

Smith, P. J.↗

Utilization of satellite-derived cloud cover to improve the estimation of latent heat release in a winter extratropical cyclone

A simple scheme for utilizing satellite cloud pattern information to improve the estimation of parameterized stable and convective latent heat release is proposed and tested for an extratropical cyclone occurring over the United States during January 9-11, 1975. Calculations are done over the standard North American rawinsonde data region and over a sparse data region simulated by ignoring one-third of the original rawinsonde stations. Results indicate 15 percent and 30 percent improvements in latent heating estimates derived from the total and sparse data sets, respectively. A larger improvement was found using the sparse data set because the parameterized latent heat release estimates obtained using these data were poorer than those obtained using the total data set.

Lin, S.-J.↗

A multispectral study of an extratropical cyclone with Nimbus 3 medium resolution infrared radiometer data

Four registered channels (0.2 to 4, 6.5 to 7, 10 to 11, and 20 to 23 microns) of the Nimbus 3 Medium Resolution Infrared Radiometer (MRIR) were used to study 24-hr changes in the structure of an extratropical cyclone during a 6-day period in May 1969. Use of a stereographic-horizon map projection insured that the storm was mapped with a single perspective throughout the series and allowed the convenient preparation of 24-hr difference maps of the infrared radiation fields. Single-channel and multispectral analysis techniques were employed to establish the positions and vertical slopes of jetstreams, large cloud systems, and major features of middle and upper tropospheric circulation. Use of these techniques plus the difference maps and continuity of observation allowed the early detection of secondary cyclones developing within the circulation of the primary cyclone. An automated, multispectral cloud-type identification technique was developed, and comparisons that were made with conventional ship reports and with high-resolution visual data from the image dissector camera system showed good agreement.

Holub, R.↗

Impact of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones on Future U.S. Offshore Wind Energy

Over 60 participants, including government officials, regulators, certification bodies, national laboratory researchers, academia, and industry representatives, gathered in person twice for a comprehensive discussion on the impacts of extreme weather on large-scale deployment of offshore wind energy for the U.S. The dialogue focused on addressing modeling challenges, the need for detailed observational data, refining risk assessment methodologies, and understanding the implications of climate change.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Martian extratropical cyclones

Physical properties of summer-season baroclinic waves on Mars are discussed on the basis of vidicon images and infrared thermal mapping generated by Viking Orbiter 1. The two northern-hemisphere storm systems examined here appear to be similar to terrestrial mid-latitude cyclonic storms. The Martian storm clouds are probably composed of water ice, rather than dust or CO2 ice particles.

Hunt, G. E.↗

A comparison of observed and numerically predicted eddy kinetic energy budgets for a developing extratropical cyclone

The eddy kinetic energy budget is calculated for a 48-hour forecast of an intense occluding winter cyclone associated with a strong well-developed jet stream. The model output consists of the initialized (1200 GMT January 9, 1975) and the 12, 24, 36, and 48 hour forecast fields from the Drexel/NCAR Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS) model. The LAMPS forecast compares well with observations for the first 24 hours, but then overdevelops the low-level cyclone while inadequately developing the upper-air wave and jet. Eddy kinetic energy was found to be concentrated in the upper-troposphere with maxima flanking the primary trough. The increases in kinetic energy were found to be due to an excess of the primary source term of kinetic energy content, which is the horizontal flux of eddy kinetic energy over the primary sinks, and the generation and dissipation of eddy kinetic energy.

Dare, P. M.↗

A comparison of adiabatic and diabatic forcing in an intense extratropical cyclone system

The roles of adiabatic and diabatic forcings in the development of a cyclone are examined. The two types of height tendency equations (classical quasi-geostrophic and extended forms) employed to solve for height tendency are described. The extended equation, in which geostrophic wind is replaced with observed wind, the effects of diabatic heating are added, and three-dimensional varying static stability is permitted, is utilized to analyze the evolution of the January 9-11, 1975 cyclone event. The analysis reveals that vorticity advection has a primary effect on the movement and propagation of the wave system; the differential thermal advection has a secondary, but significant role in wave development; latent heating effects are minimal; and the vertical advection of static stability slows the propagation and development of the wave.

Tsou, Chih-Hua↗