Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Extratropical cyclone”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate

Cold-season windstorms represent an important, and potentially changing, geophysical hazard in the Northeastern United States. Here we employ an integrated research methodology including both a storyline approach, where three intense windstorms from the current climate are subjected to pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments, and a long-term transient simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. An ensemble of WRF simulations is built for each windstorm using different planetary boundary layer and microphysical parameterizations. The fidelity assessment suggests all ensemble members capture the windstorm evolution in contemporary climate. The configuration with highest fidelity is used in the PGW experiments performed with perturbed temperature fields, constant relative humidity, and deiced Great Lakes. These perturbation simulations indicate some evidence for a reduction of sea level pressure and increases in wind speed over and downwind of the Great Lakes and over the Atlantic Ocean plus an increase in precipitation accumulation but a reduction in snow coverage. These changes are spatially inhomogeneous in terms of magnitude and sign but are consistent with changes in potential vorticity. Alberta Clippers and Colorado Lows dominate the cyclones responsible for historical windstorms and thus are sampled in the PGW simulations. However, the transient simulation suggests an increasing role for tropical cyclones that undergo transition to extratropical cyclones. Furthermore, this reinforces the value of combining information from both PGW perturbation experiments within a storyline context and transient simulations when seeking to quantify the future risk associated with cold-season windstorms under changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Synoptic-Scale Dynamics on Clouds and Radiation in High Southern Latitudes

High-latitudinal mixed-phase clouds significantly affect Earth's radiative balance. Observations of cloud and radiative properties from two field campaigns in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica were compared with two global climate model simulations. A cyclone compositing method was used to quantify “dynamics-cloud-radiation” relationships relative to the extratropical cyclone centers. Observations show larger asymmetry in cloud and radiative properties between western and eastern sectors at McMurdo compared with Macquarie Island. Most observed quantities at McMurdo are higher in the western (i.e., post-frontal) than the eastern (frontal) sector, including cloud fraction, liquid water path (LWP), net surface shortwave and longwave radiation (SW and LW), except for ice water path (IWP) being higher in the eastern sector. Here, the two models were found to overestimate cloud fraction and LWP at Macquarie Island but underestimate them at McMurdo Station. IWP is consistently underestimated at both locations, both sectors, and in all seasons. Biases of cloud fraction, LWP, and IWP are negatively correlated with SW biases and positively correlated with LW biases. The persistent negative IWP biases may have become one of the leading causes of radiative biases over the high southern latitudes, after correcting the underestimation of supercooled liquid water in the older model versions. By examining multi-scale factors from cloud microphysics to synoptic dynamics, this work will help increase the fidelity of climate simulations in this remote region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The System for Classification of Low-Pressure Systems (SyCLoPS): An All-In-One Objective Framework for Large-Scale Data Sets

We propose the first unified objective framework (SyCLoPS) for detecting and classifying all types of low-pressure systems (LPSs) in a given data set. We use the state-of-the-art automated feature tracking software TempestExtremes (TE) to detect and track LPS features globally in ERA5 and compute 16 parameters from commonly found atmospheric variables for classification. A Python classifier is implemented to classify all LPSs at once. The framework assigns 16 different labels (classes) to each LPS data point and designates four different types of high-impact LPS tracks, including tracks of tropical cyclone (TC), monsoonal system, subtropical storm and polar low. The classification process involves disentangling high-altitude and drier LPSs, differentiating tropical and non-tropical LPSs using novel criteria, and optimizing for the detection of the four types of high-impact LPS. A comparison of our labels with those in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) revealed an overall accuracy of 95% in distinguishing between tropical systems, extratropical cyclones, and disturbances. SyCLoPS produces a better TC detection skill compared to the previous algorithms, highlighted by an approximately 6% reduction in the false alarm rate compared to the previous TE algorithm. The vertical cross section composite of the four types of high-impact LPS we detect each shows distinct structural characteristics. Finally, we demonstrate that SyCLoPS is valuable for investigating various aspects of LPSs in climate data, such as the evolution of a single LPS track, patterns of LPS frequencies, and precipitation or wind influence associated with a particular LPS class.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new climatology of South American extratropical cyclogenesis with an intercomparison among ERA5 , JRA55 and the Brazilian Navy

Abstract In South America, the most destructive extratropical cyclones occur over the southeastern quadrant of the continent, a region that includes some of the world's largest population centres. However, there are few studies of cyclogenesis in this region, and little is known about how the varying origins of these storms impact subsequent behaviour. By supplementing an observational record with current reanalysis data, this study reveals the general characteristics of cyclones that develop in the lee regions of the Andes and those that develop nearer the Atlantic coast. The comparative climatologies demonstrate that cyclone development in these separate contexts is driven by topography, local atmospheric circulations and basin‐scale climate oscillations. The analysis further reveals a low‐frequency seesaw of lee and coastal cyclogenesis, with cross‐basin ocean temperature differences playing a teleconnectional role.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the large-scale drivers of precipitation in the northeastern United States via linear orthogonal decomposition

This study examines the linear orthogonal modes associated with monthly precipitation in the northeastern United States, from CESM1 LENS (35 ensemble members, 1979–2005) and two reanalysis datasets (ERA5, 1950–2018 and NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20CRv3, 1950–2015). Calendar months are aggregated together, and any linear trends in data are removed. Using region-averaged precipitation anomaly time series and monthly anomalies for several global 2D atmospheric fields, a linear orthogonal decomposition method is implemented to iteratively extract time series (based on field and geographic location) of absolute maximum correlation. Linear modes associated with this method are then projected onto the full set of 2D fields to provide physical insight into the mechanisms involved in generating precipitation. In this region, the first mode is associated with vapor transport from the Atlantic seaboard, the second mode is characterized by westward vapor transport associated with extratropical cyclones, and the third mode captures vapor transport from the Gulf of Mexico during the fall and winter. However, the third mode is less robust in the spring and summer. Results are generally consistent across the datasets, and applying multiple linear regression with the linear modes to predict the precipitation anomalies produces R-squared values of around 0.54–0.65 for CESM1 LENS, and around 0.58–0.88 for reanalysis, with the lowest values generally in the spring and late summer. The influence of low-frequency climate variability on the modes is considered for CESM1 LENS, and the modes in late winter can be predicted with some success via a combination of several, prominent large-scale teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea

Here we present a modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea—a large and complex estuarine system in the Pacific Northwest that is exposed to extratropical cyclones. A method was developed to systematically identify storm surge events in the Salish Sea based on water level records at four representative tidal gauges in the Salish Sea. The maximum storm surge distribution in the Salish Sea was calculated based on model simulations of 34 major historical storm events from 1980 to 2016. The model simulations were validated by field observations of water level and velocity using a suite of model performance metrics. Model results suggest that the maximum storm surge in the Salish Sea is generally in the range of 0.8 m–1.03 m and is heterogeneous in space. The model results also show a strong north-south gradient with larger surge magnitudes occurring in the north that is primarily caused by the southerly wind in winter months. The sensitivity analysis of wind forcing suggested that storm surge in the Salish Sea is dominated by the remote surge from the Pacific Ocean, and the local wind contributes up to approximately 20% of the surge variability. This paper systematically elucidates storm surge characteristics and potential risk in the Salish Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A mechanistic understanding of oxygen isotopic changes in the Western United States at the Last Glacial Maximum

At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), records suggest drier conditions in the northwest United States and wetter conditions in the southwest United States relative to present-day as well as widespread changes in the isotopic composition of water. However, the mechanisms responsible for these changes remain ambiguous. Here, we explore differences in western United States hydroclimate between the LGM and preindustrial with a water isotope tracer enabled Earth System Model. We then use proxy forward models to compare simulated and recorded δ 18 O in speleothems. We find that the pattern of hydroclimate response in the western United States at the LGM relates to a combination of 1) increased frequency and southward shifted wintertime extratropical cyclones in the North Pacific, 2) greater rainout of moisture as it moves over the continent, and 3) reduced evaporation in the cooler LGM climate. The simulated lower δ 18 O of precipitation at the LGM relates predominantly to an increase in cool season moisture removal efficiency, with a secondary contribution from relatively more cool season precipitation. Both surface temperatures and North American ice sheets contribute to these hydroclimate changes at the LGM. Comparisons between δ 18 O from proxy forward models and speleothem records in the western United States show general agreement at the LGM, with increasing depletion moving towards the continental interior. Finally, this study highlights the similarities and differences between hydrologic and δ 18 O changes at the LGM and emphasizes the utility of model-proxy comparison for interpretation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Misaligned Wind‐Waves Behind Atmospheric Cold Fronts

Abstract Atmospheric fronts embedded in extratropical cyclones are high‐impact weather phenomena, contributing significantly to mid‐latitude winter precipitation. The three vital characteristics of the atmospheric fronts, high wind speeds, abrupt change in wind direction, and rapid translation, force the induced surface waves to be misaligned with winds exclusively behind the cold fronts. The effects of the misaligned waves under atmospheric cold fronts on air‐sea fluxes remain undocumented. Using the multi‐year in situ near‐surface observations and direct covariance flux measurements from the Pioneer Array off the coast of New England, we find that the majority of the passing cold fronts generate misaligned waves behind the cold front. Once generated, the waves remain misaligned, on average, for about 8 hr. The parameterized effect of misaligned waves in a fully coupled model significantly increases the roughness length (185%), drag coefficient (19%), and air‐sea momentum flux (11%). The increased surface drag reduces the wind speeds in the surface layer. The upward turbulent heat flux is weakly decreased by the misaligned waves because of the decrease in temperature and humidity scaling parameters being greater than the increase in friction velocity. The misaligned wave effect is not accurately represented in a commonly used wave‐based bulk flux algorithm. Yet, considering this effect in the current formulation improves the overall accuracy of parameterized momentum flux estimates. The results imply that better representing a directional wind‐wave coupling in the bulk formula of the numerical models may help improve the air‐sea interaction simulations under the passing atmospheric fronts in the mid‐latitudes.

Oceanography↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ocean fronts and eddies force atmospheric rivers and heavy precipitation in western North America

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for over 90% of poleward water vapor transport in the mid-latitudes and can produce extreme precipitation when making landfall. However, weather and climate models still have difficulty simulating and predicting landfalling ARs and associated extreme precipitation, highlighting the need to better understand AR dynamics. Here, using high-resolution climate models and observations, we demonstrate that mesoscale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the Kuroshio Extension can exert a remote influence on landfalling ARs and related heavy precipitation along the west coast of North America. Inclusion of mesoscale SST forcing in the simulations results in approximately a 40% increase in landfalling ARs and up to a 30% increase in heavy precipitation in mountainous regions and this remote impact occurs on two-week time scales. The asymmetrical response of the atmosphere to warm vs. cold mesoscale SSTs over the eddy-rich Kuroshio Extension region is proposed as a forcing mechanism that results in a net increase of moisture flux above the planetary boundary layer, prompting AR genesis via enhancing moisture transport into extratropical cyclones in the presence of mesoscale SST forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climatology of Severe Local Storm Environments and Synoptic-Scale Features over North America in ERA5 Reanalysis and CAM6 Simulation

Severe local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features—including southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones—that link the large-scale climate to SLS environments. This work analyzes spatiotemporal distributions of both extreme values of SLS environmental parameters and synoptic-scale features in the ERA5 reanalysis and in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), historical simulation during 1980–2014 over North America. Compared to radiosondes, ERA5 successfully reproduces SLS environments, with strong spatiotemporal correlations and low biases, especially over the Great Plains. Both ERA5 and CAM6 reproduce the climatology of SLS environments over the central United States as well as its strong seasonal and diurnal cycles. ERA5 and CAM6 also reproduce the climatological occurrence of the synoptic-scale features, with the distribution pattern similar to that of SLS environments. Compared to ERA5, CAM6 exhibits a high bias in convective available potential energy over the eastern United States primarily due to a high bias in surface moisture and, to a lesser extent, storm-relative helicity due to enhanced low-level winds. Additionally, composite analysis indicates consistent synoptic anomaly patterns favorable for significant SLS environments over much of the eastern half of the United States in both ERA5 and CAM6, though the pattern differs for the southeastern United States. Overall, our results indicate that both ERA5 and CAM6 are capable of reproducing SLS environments as well as the synoptic-scale features and transient events that generate them.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part II: Impacts on the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. In Part I, we assessed the meteorological drivers that generated an intense atmospheric river (AR) that caused these record-shattering temperature anomalies. Here, we continue our large collaborative study by analyzing the widespread and diverse impacts driven by the AR landfall. These impacts included widespread rain and surface melt that was recorded along coastal areas, but this was outweighed by widespread high snowfall accumulations resulting in a largely positive surface mass balance contribution to the East Antarctic region. An analysis of the surface energy budget indicated that widespread downward longwave radiation anomalies caused by large cloud-liquid water contents along with some scattered solar radiation produced intense surface warming. Isotope measurements of the moisture were highly elevated, likely imprinting a strong signal for past climate reconstructions. The AR event attenuated cosmic ray measurements at Concordia, something previously never observed. Last, an extratropical cyclone west of the AR landfall likely triggered the final collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf while further reducing an already record low sea ice extent. Significance Statement Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the impacts from the March 2022 heat wave and atmospheric river across East Antarctica. One key takeaway is that the Antarctic cryosphere is highly sensitive to meteorological extremes originating from the midlatitudes and subtropics. Despite the large positive temperature anomalies driven from strong downward longwave radiation, this event led to huge amounts of snowfall across the Antarctic interior desert. The isotopes in this snow of warm airmass origin will likely be detectable in future ice cores and potentially distort past climate reconstructions. Even measurements of space activity were affected. Also, the swells generated from this storm helped to trigger the final collapse of an already critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf while further degrading sea ice coverage.

Wille, Jonathan D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tracking Extremes in Exascale Simulations Utilizing Exascale Platforms

There is a growing recognition in the literature that understanding variability and trends in hydrometeorological extremes relies on understanding variability and trends in the meteorological phenomena that drive these extremes. Such phenomenon-focused understanding relies critically on a robust methodology for identifying the occurrence of these phenomena in observations and model output, but a robust methodology does not currently exist. There are a variety of heuristic methods reported in the literature for identifying, and in some cases temporally tracking, meteorological phenomena. However, there have been several intercomparison projects (and resulting papers) indicating that there is a large uncertainty associated with choices in the identification methods; this is the case for extratropical cyclones (ETCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and even tropical cyclones (TCs); and we hypothesize that this is a general issue with heuristic identification methods altogether. These studies clearly show that this identification uncertainty leads to a large, and previously under-recognized, quantitative and even qualitative uncertainty in our understanding of these phenomena. In light of these issues, we suggest that the field could be advanced by addressing two overarching questions. First, can we explicitly quantify uncertainty associated with detecting hydrometeorological phenomena? Second, can we decompose detection uncertainty into reducible and irreducible parts?

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme Wind and Waves in U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

The Outer Continental Shelf along the U.S. east coast exhibits abundant wind resources and is now a geographic focus for offshore wind deployments. This analysis derives and presents expected extreme wind and wave conditions for the sixteen lease areas that are currently being developed. Using the homogeneous ERA5 reanalysis dataset it is shown that the fifty-year return period wind speed (U50) at 100 m a.s.l. in the lease areas ranges from 29.2 to 39.7 ms -1 . After applying corrections to account for spectral smoothing and averaging period, the associated pseudo-point U50 estimates are 34 to 46 ms -1 . The derived uncertainty in U50 estimates due to different distributional fitting is smaller than the uncertainty associated with under-sampling of the interannual variability in annual maximum wind speeds. It is shown that, in the northern lease areas, annual maximum wind speeds are generally associated with intense extratropical cyclones rather than cyclones of tropical origin. Extreme wave statistics are also presented and indicate that the 50-year return period maximum wave height may substantially exceed 15 m. From this analysis, there is evidence that annual maximum wind speeds and waves frequently derive from the same cyclone source and often occur within a 6 h time interval.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection of atmospheric rivers with inline uncertainty quantification: TECA-BARD v1.0.1

It has become increasingly common for researchers to utilize methods that identify weather features in climate models. There is an increasing recognition that the uncertainty associated with choice of detection method may affect our scientific understanding. For example, results from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) indicate that there are a broad range of plausible atmospheric river (AR) detectors and that scientific results can depend on the algorithm used. There are similar examples from the literature on extratropical cyclones and tropical cyclones. It is therefore imperative to develop detection techniques that explicitly quantify the uncertainty associated with the detection of events. We seek to answer the following question: given a “plausible” AR detector, how does uncertainty in the detector quantitatively impact scientific results? We develop a large dataset of global AR counts, manually identified by a set of eight researchers with expertise in atmospheric science, which we use to constrain parameters in a novel AR detection method. We use a Bayesian framework to sample from the set of AR detector parameters that yield AR counts similar to the expert database of AR counts; this yields a set of “plausible” AR detectors from which we can assess quantitative uncertainty. This probabilistic AR detector has been implemented in the Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis (TECA), which allows for efficient processing of petabyte-scale datasets. We apply the TECA Bayesian AR Detector, TECA-BARD v1.0.1, to the MERRA-2 reanalysis and show that the sign of the correlation between global AR count and El Niño–Southern Oscillation depends on the set of parameters used.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The fully coupled regionally refined model of E3SM version 2: overview of the atmosphere, land, and river results

Abstract. This paper provides an overview of the United States (US) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) and documents the overall atmosphere, land, and river results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) and historical simulations – a first-of-its-kind set of climate production simulations using RRM. The North American (NA) RRM (NARRM) is developed as the high-resolution configuration of E3SMv2 with the primary goal of more explicitly addressing DOE's mission needs regarding impacts to the US energy sector facing Earth system changes. The NARRM features finer horizontal resolution grids centered over NA, consisting of 25→100 km atmosphere and land, a 0.125∘ river-routing model, and 14→60 km ocean and sea ice. By design, the computational cost of NARRM is ∼3× of the uniform low-resolution (LR) model at 100 km but only ∼ 10 %–20 % of a globally uniform high-resolution model at 25 km. A novel hybrid time step strategy for the atmosphere is key for NARRM to achieve improved climate simulation fidelity within the high-resolution patch without sacrificing the overall global performance. The global climate, including climatology, time series, sensitivity, and feedback, is confirmed to be largely identical between NARRM and LR as quantified with typical climate metrics. Over the refined NA area, NARRM is generally superior to LR, including for precipitation and clouds over the contiguous US (CONUS), summertime marine stratocumulus clouds off the coast of California, liquid and ice phase clouds near the North Pole region, extratropical cyclones, and spatial variability in land hydrological processes. The improvements over land are related to the better-resolved topography in NARRM, whereas those over ocean are attributable to the improved air–sea interactions with finer grids for both atmosphere and ocean and sea ice. Some features appear insensitive to the resolution change analyzed here, for instance the diurnal propagation of organized mesoscale convective systems over CONUS and the warm-season land–atmosphere coupling at the southern Great Plains. In summary, our study presents a realistically efficient approach to leverage the fully coupled RRM framework for a standard Earth system model release and high-resolution climate production simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble-Based Characterization of Historical Storm Types in ERA5 over CONUS

We present Storm-Type Labeled Precipitation, a gridded dataset that classifies ERA5 precipitation over CONUS (20–50° N, 125–66° W) by storm type at 6-hourly resolution. Each grid cell/time step is assigned to one of five classes—mesoscale convective system (MCS), extratropical cyclone (ETC), hurricane (HUR), atmospheric river (AR), or other convective, with an “unidentified” code reserved for cases with no detected type. Two products are provided: (i) a TempestExtremes (TE)–only version, and (ii) a hybrid TRACK–TE version that uses TRACK for ETCs and HURs and TE for MCSs and ARs. Outputs are integer masks aligned to ERA5 precipitation, supporting storm-type attribution of rainfall, event compositing, trend analysis, and model evaluation. Future work will extend detection to high-resolution downscaled Earth system model projections to support evaluations of projected changes in hydrologic hazards that may threaten critical water and energy infrastructures.

Rastogi, Deeksha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000204624027)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗