Techno-economic feasibility analysis of an extreme heat flux micro-cooler
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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The impacts of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on humidity-based extreme heat
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Cornish, Ashley E.↗
Statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models underestimate the adverse effects of extreme heat on U.S. maize yields
Abstract Efforts to understand and quantify how a changing climate can impact agriculture often rely on bias-corrected and downscaled climate information, making it important to quantify potential biases of this approach. Here, we use a multi-model ensemble of statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models, as well as the corresponding parent models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), to drive a statistical panel model of U.S. maize yields that incorporates season-wide measures of temperature and precipitation. We analyze uncertainty in annual yield hindcasts, finding that the CMIP5 models considerably overestimate historical yield variability while the bias-corrected and downscaled versions underestimate the largest weather-induced yield declines. We also find large differences in projected yields and other decision-relevant metrics throughout this century, leaving stakeholders with modeling choices that require navigating trade-offs in resolution, historical accuracy, and projection confidence.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Conditional Attribution of the 2018 Summer Extreme Heat over Northeast China: Roles of Urbanization, Global Warming, and Warming-Induced Circulation Changes
The probability of the record-breaking summer heat of 2018 over Northeast China was increased by a combination of human-caused climate change influences on thermodynamics and circulation, and urbanization.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global Warming Amplifies Outdoor Extreme Moist Heat During the Indian Summer Monsoon
Because of the climatological prevalence of hot, humid conditions, moist heat extremes are a significant challenge to the health and wellbeing of the people in India. While research has demonstrated the importance of summer monsoon to moist heat in India, impact of monsoon–break and warm spells in modulating extreme moist heat regionally has not been fully investigated. Here we investigate moist heat extremes, as measured by the Wet–Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) metric, specifically during monsoon and monsoon–break periods and find that they pose a major threat to physical labor and health relative to other seasons. During the 1951–2020 break period, an increase in area exposed (~42.76 million km 2 ), representing at least 670 million people, to extreme and detrimental WBGT values >31°C occur. Our results imply that future studies on extreme moist heat must pay close attention to the variation of weather systems on synoptic to subseasonal time scales that are superimposed on the seasonal monsoon migration.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)
The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Cool rooms for indoor heat resilience: Evaluating affordable cooling strategies in heat-stressed California homes
Extreme heat conditions pose significant indoor survivability challenges for resource-constrained communities, which often lack access to cooling, have poorly insulated homes, and face compounding socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Moreover, concurrent power outages worsen health risks and heat-related illnesses. It is therefore crucial to develop innovative and affordable cooling approaches to protect vulnerable populations. This study assesses the efficacy of “cool rooms”– a designated space within a home equipped with passive and low-power active cooling measures to maintain safe indoor temperatures during extreme heat events and power disruptions. Using a physics-based building energy modeling approach, we evaluate the efficacy of various retrofit packages in maintaining thermal safety within the cool room under recent extreme heat conditions. The results indicate that passive measures can reduce 64% of hours with unmet standard effective temperatures, while the combination of passive and low-power active measures with built-in batteries further cuts this to 86%. Nevertheless, these strategies remain insufficient to maintain indoor thermal safety during extended outages. In contrast, integrating a solar-powered mini-split heat pump, whose technical potential was evaluated in this study, reduces indoor air temperatures below the 28 °C overheating threshold and significantly improves indoor habitability. The localized cool room strategy also offers potential for grid resilience by reducing peak electricity demand by up to 70% compared to whole house cooling during heat waves. The findings can inform the development of actionable heat mitigation plans and retrofit policies for residential communities with relatively low adoption of air conditioning such as warm marine climates.
Cool room↗
Consumer safety-oriented scheduling of rotating power outages during heat waves
Extreme heat events have widespread effects on power systems, reducing available generation capacity, limiting transmission capabilities, and causing unusual demand patterns on the consumer side. As these combined effects expose bulk transmission systems to potential large-scale blackouts, utilities may be required to schedule and apply rotating outages, by temporarily and alternately disconnecting distribution substations to reduce overload. However, utilities lack mechanisms to inform these events, exacerbating the negative effects of heat waves on affected communities. This paper introduces a novel framework for scheduling rotating outages during heat waves while considering impacts on consumers’ safety. Instead of random sequential load shedding, we propose a methodology to rotate power outages considering a metric that quantifies the indoor overheating risk of groups of consumers during a power outage. The overheating risk is derived from a detailed building simulation using CityBES, where the buildings are modeled based on available data—use type, year built, floor area, number of stories, location—while presence of air conditioning and occupancy are calibrated from smart meter data. Based on the metric, an algorithm to schedule the rotating outages is applied to prioritize feeders for disconnection at each hour according to their overheating risk to meet a utility load reduction target. Applied to two substations and seven feeders in the Portland General Electric territory, the results show that this approach effectively leads to the lowest overheating risk during the resulting outage schedules, with an average 10.1% lower overheating compared to uninformed schedules.
Building thermal simulation↗
Heat Vulnerability Index Development and Mapping
Extreme heat is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the U.S. Exposure to extreme heat will be exacerbated due to global climate change. It is thus crucial to design a key performance indicator, heat vulnerability index (HVI), to represent overall heat risk which can help identify susceptible regions and sub-populations in cities in the face of heatwaves. Most existing HVI tools only consider outdoor heat exposure. This paper developed an HVI web map tool incorporating both the outdoor and the indoor heat exposure, as well as population sensitivity and adaptation capability across census tracts in the city of Fresno, California. The tool can assist the planning of infrastructure and resources to reduce residents’ vulnerability to extreme heat events.
Xu, Yujie↗
Light rain exacerbates extreme humid heat
Abstract Humid heat waves pose significant risks to human health and the ecosystem. Intuitively, rainfall often alleviates extreme humid heat. However, here we show that light rain often accompanies extreme humid heat, exacerbating its frequency and intensity, especially over arid and semi-arid regions compared to no rain and moderate-to-heavy rain cases. This is because light rain does not dramatically reduce solar radiation but increases near-surface humidity through enhanced surface evaporation. The water replenishment from light rain as well as a shallower planetary boundary layer is crucial for consecutive extremes where there are commonly sporadic drizzle days amidst several rain-free days. These extremes last longer than rain-free extremes. Current global climate models (GCMs) overestimate light rain. After reducing this bias in a GCM, underestimations of humid heat waves in energy-limited regions and overestimations in water-limited regions are largely alleviated. These findings underscore the underappreciated impact of light rain on extreme humid heat.
Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
Modeling Occupant Core Temperatures Across the Boston Building Stock to Advance Public Health
In recent history, extreme heat has been the cause of most deaths from a natural disaster. Exposure to extreme heat can aggravate preexisting conditions, increase hospitalization, and even cause death. Thus, modeling the thermal resilience of households across the United States will allow for a quantitative assessment of the health and safety risks posed by extreme heat. For the first time, we simulate occupant comfort in representative households across Boston by combining the granular results of the ResStock(TM) model with a two-node heat strain model. This model calculates occupants' core body temperature in each simulated household over a year. We compare the simulated core temperatures to two public health metrics: hyperthermia and heat stroke. Our results show for households in Boston that do not have or use aid conditioning, thousands potentially experience many dangerous heat events each summer and these events can last for more than a day at a time. These heat events peak during the late afternoon and evening, just as residents are coming home, cooking meals, and trying to go to sleep. We have found that multi-family buildings, renters, and low-income homes in more airtight and insulated homes are the most at risk for these events. These results demonstrate the scale and urgency of exposure to extreme heat.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century
Abstract Climate change and global urbanization have often been anticipated to increase future population exposure (frequency and intensity) to extreme weather over the coming decades. Here we examine how changes in urban land extent, population, and climate will respectively and collectively affect spatial patterns of future population exposures to climate extremes (including hot days, cold days, heavy rainfalls, and severe thunderstorm environments) across the continental U.S. at the end of the 21st century. Different from common impressions, we find that urban land patterns can sometimes reduce rather than increase population exposures to climate extremes, even heat extremes, and that spatial patterns instead of total quantities of urban land are more influential to population exposures. Our findings lead to preliminary suggestions for embedding long-term climate resilience in urban and regional land-use system designs, and strongly motivate searches for optimal spatial urban land patterns that can robustly moderate population exposures to climate extremes throughout the 21st century.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Modeling of Supercritical CO2 Shell-and-Tube Heat Exchangers Under Extreme Conditions: Part II: Heat Exchanger Model
Abstract Heat exchangers play a critical role in supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles by providing necessary waste heat recovery. Supercritical CO2 thermal cycles potentially achieve higher energy density and thermal efficiency operating at elevated temperatures and pressures. Accurate and computationally efficient estimation of heat exchanger performance metrics at these conditions is important for the design and optimization of sCO2 systems and thermal cycles. In this paper (Part II), a computationally efficient and accurate numerical model is developed to predict the performance of shell-and-tube heat exchangers (STHXs). Highly accurate correlations reported in Part I of this study are utilized to improve the accuracy of performance predictions, and the concept of volume averaging is used to abstract the geometry and reduce computation time. The numerical model is validated by comparison with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and provides high accuracy and significantly lower computation time compared to existing numerical models. A preliminary optimization study is conducted and the advantage of using supercritical CO2 as a working fluid for energy systems is demonstrated.
Engineering↗
Chronically underestimated: a reassessment of US heat waves using the extended heat index
Abstract The heat index, or apparent temperature, was never defined for extreme heat and humidity, leading to the widespread adoption of a polynomial extrapolation designed by the United States National Weather Service. Recently, however, the heat index has been extended to all combinations of temperature and humidity, presenting an opportunity to reassess past heat waves. Here, three-hourly temperature and humidity are used to evaluate the extended heat index over the contiguous United States during the years 1984–2020. It is found that the 99.9th percentile of the daily maximum heat index is highest over the Midwest. Identifying and ranking heat waves by the spatially integrated exceedance of that percentile, the Midwest once again stands out as home to the most extreme heat waves, including the top-ranked July 2011 and July 1995 heat waves. The extended heat index can also be used to evaluate the physiological stress induced by heat and humidity. It is found that the most extreme Midwest heat waves tax the cardiovascular system with a skin blood flow that is elevated severalfold, approaching the physiological limit. These effects are not captured by the National Weather Service’s polynomial extrapolation, which also underestimates the heat index by as much as 10 ∘ C (20 ∘ F) during severe heat waves.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Prioritizing urban heat adaptation infrastructure based on multiple outcomes: Comfort, health, and energy
Globally, cities face increasing extreme heat, impacting comfort, health, and energy consumption. Infrastructure-based heat adaptation strategies can improve these outcomes, but each strategy has a unique mix of benefits and drawbacks. Here, we apply an urbanized meteorological model (WRF) with the newly integrated multilayer BEP-Tree street tree model to dynamically downscale Earth System Model projections and a 3-D microclimate model (TUF-Pedestrian) to simulate the street-scale radiation environment impacting pedestrians. We evaluate the performance of five heat adaptation strategies (street trees, cool roofs, green roofs, rooftop photovoltaics (PV), and reflective pavements) during extreme heat events in three cities with contrasting background climates (Toronto, Phoenix, and Miami), under contemporary and end-of-century projected climates, based on three metrics: outdoor heat stress, air conditioning (AC) energy use, and ventilation of vehicular air pollution. No single adaptation strategy improves all three outcomes. While street trees inhibit ventilation, they reduce outdoor heat stress four times more effectively than the next best strategy via shade provision, fully offsetting heat stress increases under a high-emissions end-of-century climate scenario in all cities studied. Cool roofs and green roofs moderately reduce heat stress and energy use. Alternatively, rooftop PV with energy storage can generate sufficient power for space cooling but have marginal effects on heat stress. Reflective pavements are the least effective across metrics. Where the ventilation of street-level emissions is of less concern, our results clearly support the combination of street trees and rooftop PV as a highly complementary and effective means of adaptive mitigation across different climates and neighborhood densities.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments
High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China
Reliable regional temperature projections including heat extremes are essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Taking China as an example, simple averages from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models project high warming due to sampling many high climate sensitivities in the ensemble. Here, we develop an emergent constraint (EC) framework to obtain constrained mean and daily maximum temperature (TXx) warming over China by using observed global warming and local residual warming. The constrained annual mean and TXx warming over China (2.33°C [1.61–3.05°C] and 2.31°C [1.21–2.99°C]) are 0.65°C [0.04–1.76°C] and 0.63°C [–0.50–2.39°C], respectively, lower than raw projections (2.98°C [1.85–4.22°C] and 2.94°C [2.04–4.39°C]) for 2080–2099 under the intermediate-emission scenario. Approximately half model uncertainty is reduced after constraint. The land area (population) experiencing temperature extremes in our metric is 78% (85%) of the raw projections. Our results imply a lower impact of extreme heat than implied by current raw CMIP6 projections.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗