Design and Evaluation of An on-sun prototype falling-particle cavity receiver.
Abstract not provided.
Christian, Joshua Mark↗
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Effect of quartz aperture covers on the fluid dynamics and thermal efficiency of falling particle receivers.
Abstract not provided.
Yue, Lindsey↗
Circumstances and outcomes of falls among high risk community-dwelling older adults
For older adults, falls threaten their health, independence, and quality of life. Knowing the circumstances surrounding falls is essential for understanding how behavioral and environmental factors interact in fall events. It is also important for developing and implementing interventions that are effective and acceptable to older adults. This study investigated the circumstances and injury outcomes of falls among community-dwelling older adults at high risk for falls. In this secondary analysis, we examined the circumstances and outcomes of falls experienced by 328 participants in the Dane County (Wisconsin) Safety Assessment for Elders (SAFE) Research Study. SAFE was a randomized controlled trial of a community-based multifactorial falls intervention for older adults at high risk for falls, conducted from October 2002 to December 2007. Participants were community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years who reported at least one fall during the year after study enrollment. Falls were collected prospectively using monthly calendars. Everyone who reported a fall was contacted by telephone to determine the circumstances surrounding the event. Injury outcomes were defined as none, mild (injury reported but no treatment sought), moderate (treatment for any injury except head injury or fracture), and severe (treatment for head injury or fracture). Data were available for 1,172 falls. A generalized linear mixed model analysis showed that being aged ≥85 (OR = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2–3.9), female (OR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.3–3.4), falling backward and landing flat (OR = 5.6, 95% CI = 2.9–10.5), sideways (OR = 4.6, 95% CI = 2.6–8.0) and forward (OR = 3.3, 95% CI = 2.0–5.7) were significantly associated with the likelihood of injury. Of 783 falls inside the home, falls in the bathroom were more than twice as likely to result in an injury compared to falls in the living room (OR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.2–4.9). Most falls among these high risk older adults occurred inside the home. The likelihood of injury in the bathroom supports the need for safety modifications such as grab bars, and may indicate a need for assistance with bathing. These findings will help clinicians tailor fall prevention for their patients and have practical implications for retirement and assisted living communities and community-based fall prevention programs.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Worldwide Weather Radar Imagery May Allow Substantial Increase in Meteorite Fall Recovery
Weather radar imagery is a valuable new technique for the rapid recovery of meteorite falls, to include falls which would not otherwise be recovered (e.g. Battle Mountain). Weather radar imagery reveals about one new meteorite fall per year (18 falls since 1998), using weather radars in the United States alone. However, an additional ~75 other nations operate weather radar networks according to the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO). If the imagery of those radars were analyzed, the current rate of meteorite falls could be improved considerably, to as much as ~3.6 times the current recovery rate based on comparison of total radar areal coverage. Recently, the addition of weather radar imagery, seismometry and internet-based aggregation of eyewitness reports has improved the speed and accuracy of fresh meteorite fall recovery [e.g. 1,2]. This was demonstrated recently with the radar-enabled recovery of the Sutter's Mill fall [3]. Arguably, the meteorites recovered via these methods are of special scientific value as they are relatively unweathered, fresh falls. To illustrate this, a recent SAO/NASA ADS search using the keyword "meteorite" shows that all 50 of the top search results included at least one named meteorite recovered from a meteorite fall. This is true even though only ~1260 named meteorite falls are recorded among the >49,000 individual falls recorded in the Meteoritical Society online database. The US NEXRAD system used thus far to locate meteorite falls covers most of the United States' surface area. Using a WMO map of the world's weather radars, we estimate that the total coverage of the other ~75 national weather radar networks equals about 3.6x NEXRAD's coverage area. There are two findings to draw from this calculation: 1) For the past 16 years during which 18 falls are seen in US radar data, there should be an additional ~65 meteorite falls recorded in worldwide radar imagery. Also: 2) if all of the world's radar data could be analyzed, the rate of recovery of fresh meteorite falls can increase by as much as ~3.6x the current rate. The authors' experience to date indicates that the most effective course of action would be to have local meteorite research groups (outside of the US) form research consortia and develop a working relationship with their nation's weather bureau for access to data. These research consortia could utilize the same, proven methods used for US NEXRAD imagery, internet eyewitness report aggregation, seismometry analysis, etc. to locate meteorite falls. The consortia could then recover and analyze meteorite falls and enrich their own research efforts. It would be beneficial to conduct a global program to coordinate the development of methods and data tools, as well as to coordinate meteorite sample sharing and research. Perhaps an institution such as the Meteoritical Society could lead such an effort.
Fries, Marc↗
Healthcare Providers’ Perceptions and Self-Reported Fall Prevention Practices: Findings from a Large New York Health System
Among older adults, falls are the leading cause of injury-related deaths and emergency department visits, and the incidence of falls in the United States is rising as the number of older Americans increases. Research has shown that falls can be reduced by modifying fall-risk factors using multifactorial interventions implemented in clinical settings. However, the literature indicates that many providers feel that they do not know how to conduct fall-risk assessments or do not have adequate knowledge about fall prevention. To help healthcare providers incorporate older adult fall prevention (i.e., falls risk assessment and treatment) into their clinical practice, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Injury Center has developed the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) tool kit. This study was conducted to identify the practice characteristics and providers’ beliefs, knowledge, and fall-related activities before they received training on how to use the STEADI tool kit. Data were collected as part of a larger State Fall Prevention Project funded by CDC’s Injury Center. Completed questionnaires were returned by 38 medical providers from 11 healthcare practices within a large New York health system. Healthcare providers ranked falls as the lowest priority of five conditions, after diabetes, cardiovascular disease, mental health, and musculoskeletal conditions. Less than 40% of the providers asked most or all of their older patients if they had fallen during the past 12 months. Less than a quarter referred their older patients to physical therapists for balance or gait training, and <20% referred older patients to community-based fall prevention programs. Less than 16% reported they conducted standardized functional assessments with their older patients at least once a year. These results suggest that implementing the STEADI tool kit in clinical settings could address knowledge gaps and provide the necessary tools to help providers incorporate fall-risk assessment and treatment into clinical practice.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Bayesian classification of falls risk
Background. Prior research in falls risk prediction often relies on qualitative and/or clinical methods. There are two challenges with these methods. First, qualitative methods typically use falls history to determine falls risk. Second, clinical methods do not quantify the uncertainty in the classification decision. In this paper, we propose using Bayesian classification to predict falls risk using vectors of gait variables shown to contribute to falls risk. Research Questions: (1) Using a vector of risk ratios for specific gait variables shown to contribute to falls risk, how can older adults be classified as low or high falls risk? and (2) how can the uncertainty in the classifier decision be quantified when using a vector of gait variables? Methods. Using a pressure sensitive walkway, biomechanical measurements of gait were collected from 854 adults over the age of 65. In our method, we first determine low and high falls risk labels for vectors of risk ratios using the k-means algorithm. Next, the posterior probability of low or high falls risk class membership is obtained from a two component Gaussian mixture model (GMM) of gait vectors, which enables risk assessment directly from the underlying biomechanics. We classify the gait vectors using a threshold based on Youden's J statistic. Results. Through a Monte Carlo simulation and an analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), we demonstrate that our Bayesian classifier, when compared to the k-means falls risk labels, achieves an accuracy greater than 96% at predicting low or high falls risk. Significance. Our analysis indicates that our approach based on a Bayesian framework and an individual's underlying biomechanics can predict falls risk while quantifying uncertainty in the classification decision.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Activities and risk factors associated with fall-related injuries among US Army soldiers
Introduction Falls/near falls are the second leading cause of hospitalisation and outpatient visits among US Army soldiers. While numerous studies have evaluated fall-related or near fall-related injuries among elderly adults, few have evaluated this association among young adults. The objective of this study is to describe the characteristics and risk factors associated with fall-related or near fall-related injuries among male US Army soldiers. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of male US Army Airborne Division soldiers (n=5187). Electronic surveys captured demographic, lifestyle, physical training (PT), fitness and injury data during spring/summer of 2016. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors of fall-related or near fall-related injuries, adjusting for potential confounders. Results Primary findings indicated that activities and risk factors associated with fall-related or near fall-related injuries among soldiers included younger age (≤35 years), holding a job that required minimal lifting activities, slower 2-mile run times and not running during personal PT. Conclusions The findings from this study suggest that male US Army soldiers and other physically active men may benefit from (1) obtaining and/or maintaining higher aerobic endurance and muscular strength, and (2) training focused on preventing fall-related injuries during PT, road marching and sports/recreational activities. Moreover, prevention strategies and education should further target younger soldiers (≤35 years old), as younger age is not modifiable.
General & Internal Medicine↗
Fall Protection Introduction, #33462
The proper use of fall prevention and fall protection controls can reduce the risk of deaths and injuries caused by falls. This course, Fall Protection Introduction (#33462), is designed as an introduction to various types of recognized fall prevention and fall protection systems at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), including guardrail systems, safety net systems, fall restraint systems, and fall arrest systems. Special emphasis is given to the components, inspection, care, and storage of personal fall arrest systems (PFASs). This course also presents controls for falling object hazards and emergency planning considerations for persons who have fallen.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Fall Protection Introduction: Instructor Guide
The proper use of fall prevention and fall protection controls can reduce the risk of deaths and injuries caused by falls. This course, Fall Protection Introduction (#33462), is designed as an introduction to various types of recognized fall prevention and fall protection systems at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), including guardrail systems, safety net systems, fall restraint systems, and fall arrest systems. Special emphasis is given to the components, inspection, care, and storage of personal fall arrest systems (PFAS). This course also presents controls for falling object hazards and emergency planning considerations for persons who have fallen.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Detection Thresholds of Falling Snow from Satellite-Borne Active and Passive Sensors
Precipitation, including rain and snow, is a critical part of the Earth's energy and hydrology cycles. Precipitation impacts latent heating profiles locally while global circulation patterns distribute precipitation and energy from the equator to the poles. For the hydrological cycle, falling snow is a primary contributor in northern latitudes during the winter seasons. Falling snow is the source of snow pack accumulations that provide fresh water resources for many communities in the world. Furthermore, falling snow impacts society by causing transportation disruptions during severe snow events. In order to collect information on the complete global precipitation cycle, both liquid and frozen precipitation must be collected. The challenges of estimating falling snow from space still exist though progress is being made. These challenges include weak falling snow signatures with respect to background (surface, water vapor) signatures for passive sensors over land surfaces, unknowns about the spherical and non-spherical shapes of the snowflakes, their particle size distributions (PSDs) and how the assumptions about the unknowns impact observed brightness temperatures or radar reflectivities, differences in near surface snowfall and total column snow amounts, and limited ground truth to validate against. While these challenges remain, knowledge of their impact on expected retrieval results is an important key for understanding falling snow retrieval estimations. Since falling snow from space is the next precipitation measurement challenge from space, information must be determined in order to guide retrieval algorithm development for these current and future missions. This information includes thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types. For example, can a lake effect snow system with low (approx 2.5 km) cloud tops having an ice water content (IWC) at the surface of 0.25 g / cubic m and dendrite snowflakes be detected? If this information is known, we can focus retrieval efforts on detectable storms and concentrate advances on achievable results. Here, the focus is to determine thresholds of detection for falling snow for various snow conditions over land and lake surfaces. The results rely on simulated Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations of falling snow cases since simulations provide all the information to determine the measurements from space and the ground truth. Sensitivity analyses were performed to better ascertain the relationships between multifrequency microwave and millimeter-wave sensor observations and the falling snow/underlying field of view. In addition, thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types were studied. Results will be presented for active radar at Ku, Ka, and W-band and for passive radiometer channels from 10 to 183 GHz.
Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗
Meteorite Falls Observed in U.S. Weather Radar Data in 2015 and 2016 (To Date)
To date, over twenty meteorite falls have been located in the weather radar imagery of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NEXRAD radar network. We present here the most prominent events recorded since the last Meteoritical Society meeting, covering most of 2015 and early 2016. Meteorite Falls: The following events produced evidence of falling meteorites in radar imagery and resulted in meteorites recovered at the fall site. Creston, CA (24 Oct 2015 0531 UTC): This event generated 218 eyewitness reports submitted to the American Meteor Society (AMS) and is recorded as event #2635 for 2015 on the AMS website. Witnesses reported a bright fireball with fragmentation terminating near the city of Creston, CA, north of Los Angeles. Sonic booms and electrophonic noise were reported in the vicinity of the event. Weather radar imagery records signatures consistent with falling meteorites in data from the KMUX, KVTX, KHNX and KVBX. The Meteoritical Society records the Creston fall as an L6 meteorite with a total recovered mass of 688g. Osceola, FL (24 Jan 2016 1527 UTC): This daytime fireball generated 134 eyewitness reports on AMS report number 266 for 2016, with one credible sonic boom report. The fireball traveled roughly NE to SW with a terminus location north of Lake City, FL in sparsely populated, forested countryside. Radar imagery shows distinct and prominent evidence of a significant meteorite fall with radar signatures seen in data from the KJAX and KVAX radars. Searchers at the fall site found that recoveries were restricted to road sites by the difficult terrain, and yet several meteorites were recovered. Evidence indicates that this was a relatively large meteorite fall where most of the meteorites are unrecoverable due to terrain. Osceola is an L6 meteorite with 991 g total mass recovered to date. Mount Blanco, TX (18 Feb 2016 0343 UTC): This event produced only 39 eyewitness reports and is recorded as AMS event #635 for 2016. No reports of sonic booms or electrophonic noise are recorded in the AMS eyewitness reports, but videos of the event show a relatively long-lasting fireball with fragmentation. Evidence of falling meteorites is seen in radar imagery from the KAMA and KLBB radars defining a roughly WNW to ESE trend with the dominant wind direction. This event featured favorable search ground composed mostly of farmland and ranchland and was extensively searched. Rather surprisingly, only a single L5 chondrite of 36.2g has been recovered to date.
Fries, Marc↗
SU-F-T-590: Modeling PTV Dose Fall-Off for Cervical Cancer SBRT Treatment Planning Using VMAT and Step-And-Shoot IMRT
Purpose: Due to the high dose per fraction in SBRT, dose conformity and dose fall-off are critical. In patients with cervical cancer, rapid dose fall-off is particularly important to limit dose to the nearby rectum, small bowel, and bladder. This study compares the target volume dose fall-off for two radiation delivery techniques, fixed-field IMRT & VMAT, using non-coplanar beam geometries. Further comparisons are made between 6 and 10MV photon beam energies. Methods: Eleven (n=11) patients were planned in Pinnacle3 v9.10 with a NovalisTx (HD120 MLC) machine model using 6 and 10 MV photons. The following three techniques were used: (1) IMRT (10 non-coplanar beams) (2) Dual, coplanar 360° VMAT arcs (4° spacing), and (3) Triple, non-coplanar VMAT arcs (1 full arc and dual partial arcs). All plans were normalized such that 98% of the PTV received at least 28Gy/4Fx. Dose was calculated using a 2.0mm isotropic dose grid. To assess dose fall-off, twenty concentric 2mm thick rings were created around the PTV. The maximum dose in each ring was recorded and the data was fitted to model dose fall-off. A separate analysis was performed by separating target volumes into small (0–50cc), medium (51–80cc), and large (81–110cc). Results: Triple, non-coplanar VMAT arcs showed the best dose fall-off for all patients evaluated. All fitted regressions had an R{sup 2}≥0.99. At 10mm from the PTV edge, 10 MV VMAT3-arc had an absolute improvement in dose fall-off of 3.8% and 6.9% over IMRT and VMAT2-arc, respectively. At 30mm, 10 MV VMAT3-arc had an absolute improvement of 12.0% and 7.0% over IMRT and VMAT2-arc, respectively. Faster dose fall-off was observed for small volumes as opposed to medium and large ones—9.6% at 20mm. Conclusion: Triple, non-coplanar VMAT arcs offer the sharpest dose fall-off for cervical SBRT plans. This improvement is most pronounced when treating smaller target volumes.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Passive Microwave Remote Sensing of Falling Snow and Associated GPM Field Campaigns
Retrievals of falling snow from space represent one of the next important challenges for the atmospheric, hydrological, and energy budget scientific communities. Historically, retrievals of falling snow have been difficult due to the relative insensitivity of satellite rain-based channels as used in the past. We emphasize the use of high frequency passive microwave channels (85-200 GHz) since these are more sensitive to the ice in clouds and have been used to estimate falling snow from space. While satellite-based remote sensing provides global coverage of falling snow events and the science is relatively new, retrievals are still undergoing development with challenges remaining. There are several current satellite sensors, though not specifically designed for estimating falling snow, are capable of measuring snow from space. These include NOAA's AMSU-B, the MHS sensors, and CloudSat radar. They use high frequency (greater than 85 GHz) passive and active microwave and millimeter-wave channels that are sensitive to the scattering from ice and snow particles in the atmosphere. Sensors with water vapor channels near 183 GHz center line provide opaqueness to the Earth's surface features that can contaminate the falling snow signatures, especially over snow covered surface. In addition, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission scheduled for launch in 2013 is specifically designed to measure both liquid rain and frozen snow precipitation. Since falling snow from space is the next precipitation measurement challenge from space, information must be determined in order to guide retrieval algorithm development for these current and future missions. This information includes thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, and surface types. For example, can a lake effect snow system with low cloud tops having an ice water content (IWC) at the surface of 1.0 gram per cubic meter be detected? If this information is known, we can focus retrieval efforts on detectable storms and concentrate advances on achievable results. In this work, the focus is to determine thresholds of detection for falling snow for various snow conditions over land and lake surfaces. The results rely on simulated Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations of falling snow cases [9] since simulations provide all the information to determine the measurements from space and the ground truth. This analysis relies on data from the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Program (C3VP) field campaign held from October 31, 2006 through March 1, 2007. In January 2012 GPM will return to the C3VP area for the GPM Cold Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx). This presentation will describe the thresholds-of-detection procedure and results, as well as the field campaign details.
Skofronick-Jackson, Gail↗
Environmental Factors Associated With Fall Phytoplankton Blooms in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas
This study investigates environmental drivers of fall phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic, focusing on the northern Bering and Chukchi seas. Random Forests models were used to analyze covariates of fall phytoplankton blooms from 2013 to 2018, incorporating shipboard, remote sensing, and modeled environmental properties. Four regional models and one comprehensive all-station model considered fall as well as midsummer conditions. Midsummer properties included suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll-a, and the proportion of degraded pheophytin to chlorophyll-a used as a proxy for bloom stage. Open water duration was one of the highest ranked factors in predicting fall blooms. Open water duration also influences the stage of midsummer (July) blooms as indicated by pheophytin proportions, which in turn were the highest-ranked factor for predicting fall bloom events in the Chirikov Basin (northern Bering Sea between St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait) and the Chukchi Sea. Wind direction, specifically easterly winds, was an important predictor in the northern Bering Sea. Maximum wind speed ranked highly at stations located within the nutrient-poor Alaska Coastal Current in the Chukchi Sea. However, stormy days, average and maximum wind speeds generally ranked low in importance as a predictor of fall bloom events. Other parameters, including photosynthetic active radiation, modeled nutrient concentrations, mixed layer depth, and time since sea ice breakup date showed strong but regionally varying relationships with fall blooms. Altogether, results from these Random Forests models suggest that high wind events and storms in the absence of sea ice provide an incomplete narrative for initiating fall bloom events.
Gaffey, C. B. [Clark University, Worcester, MA (Un↗
Observations of Precipitation Size and Fall Speed Characteristics within Coexisting Rain and Wet Snow
Ground-based measurements of particle size and fall speed distributions using a Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer are compa red among samples obtained in mixed precipitation (rain and wet snow) and rain in the Oregon Cascade Mountains and in dry snow in the Rock y Mountains of Colorado. Coexisting rain and snow particles are distinguished using a classification method based on their size and fall sp eed properties. The bimodal distribution of the particles' joint fall speed-size characteristics at air temperatures from 0.5 to 0 C suggests that wet-snow particles quickly make a transition to rain once mel ting has progressed sufficiently. As air temperatures increase to 1.5 C, the reduction in the number of very large aggregates with a diame ter > 10 mm coincides with the appearance of rain particles larger than 6 mm. In this setting. very large raindrops appear to be the result of aggregates melting with minimal breakup rather than formation by c oalescence. In contrast to dry snow and rain, the fall speed for wet snow has a much weaker correlation between increasing size and increasing fall speed. Wet snow has a larger standard deviation of fall spee d (120%-230% relative to dry snow) for a given particle size. The ave rage fall speed for observed wet-snow particles with a diameter great er than or equal to 2.4 mm is 2 m/s with a standard deviation of 0.8 m/s. The large standard deviation is likely related to the coexistence of particles of similar physical size with different percentages of melting. These results suggest that different particle sizes are not required for aggregation since wet-snow particles of the same size can have different fall speeds. Given the large standard deviation of fa ll speeds in wet snow, the collision efficiency for wet snow is likely larger than that of dry snow. For particle sizes between 1 and 10 mm in diameter within mixed precipitation, rain constituted I % of the particles by volume within the isothermal layer at 0 C and 4% of the particles by volume for the region just below the isothermal layer where air temperatures rise from 0" to 0.5"C. As air temperatures increa sed above 0.5 C, the relative proportions of rain versus snow particl es shift dramatically and raindrops become dominant. The value of 0.5 C for the sharp transition in volume fraction from snow to rain is sl ightly lower than the range from 1 .l to 1.7 C often used in hydrolog ical models.
Yuter, Sandra E.↗
A Segmentation Algorithm for Characterizing Rise and Fall Segments in Seasonal Cycles: An Application to XCO2 to Estimate Benchmarks and Assess Model Bias
There is more useful information in the time series of satellite-derived column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) than is typically characterized. Often, the entire time series is treated at once without considering detailed features at shorter timescales, such as nonstationary changes in signal characteristics – amplitude, period and phase. In many instances, signals are visually and analytically differentiable from other portions in a time series. Each rise (increasing) and fall (decreasing) segment in the seasonal cycle is visually discernable in a graph of the time series. The rise and fall segments largely result from seasonal differences in terrestrial ecosystem production, which means that the segment's signal characteristics can be used to establish observational benchmarks because the signal characteristics are driven by similar underlying processes. We developed an analytical segmentation algorithm to characterize the rise and fall segments in XCO2 seasonal cycles. We present the algorithm for general application of the segmentation analysis and emphasize here that the segmentation analysis is more generally applicable to cyclic time series. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm with specific results related to the comparison between satellite- and model-derived XCO2 seasonal cycles (2009–2012) for large bioregions across the globe. We found a seasonal amplitude gradient of 0.74–0.77 ppm for every 10∘ of latitude in the satellite data, with similar gradients for rise and fall segments. This translates to a south–north seasonal amplitude gradient of 8 ppm for XCO2, about half the gradient in seasonal amplitude based on surface site in situ CO2 data (∼19 ppm). The latitudinal gradients in the period of the satellite-derived seasonal cycles were of opposing sign and magnitude (−9 d per 10∘ latitude for fall segments and 10 d per 10∘ latitude for rise segments) and suggest that a specific latitude (∼2∘ N) exists that defines an inversion point for the period asymmetry. Before (after) the point of asymmetry inversion, the periods of rise segments are lesser (greater) than the periods of fall segments; only a single model could reproduce this emergent pattern. The asymmetry in amplitude and the period between rise and fall segments introduces a novel pattern in seasonal cycle analyses, but, while we show these emergent patterns exist in the data, we are still breaking ground in applying the information for science applications. Maybe the most useful application is that the segmentation analysis allowed us to decompose the model biases into their correlated parts of biases in amplitude, period and phase independently for rise and fall segments. We offer an extended discussion on how such information about model biases and the emergent patterns in satellite-derived seasonal cycles can be used to guide future inquiry and model development.
Calle, Leonardo↗
A Segmentation Algorithm for Characterizing Rise and Fall Segments in Seasonal Cycles: an Application to Xco2 to Estimate Benchmarks and Assess Model Bias
There is more useful information in the time series of satellite-derived column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) than is typically characterized. Often, the entire time series is treated at once without considering detailed features at shorter timescales, such as nonstationary changes in signal characteristics – amplitude, period and phase. In many instances, signals are visually and analytically differentiable from other portions in a time series. Each rise (increasing) and fall (decreasing) segment in the seasonal cycle is visually discernable in a graph of the time series. The rise and fall segments largely result from seasonal differences in terrestrial ecosystem production, which means that the segment's signal characteristics can be used to establish observational benchmarks because the signal characteristics are driven by similar underlying processes. We developed an analytical segmentation algorithm to characterize the rise and fall segments in XCO2 seasonal cycles. We present the algorithm for general application of the segmentation analysis and emphasize here that the segmentation analysis is more generally applicable to cyclic time series. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm with specific results related to the comparison between satellite- and model-derived XCO2 seasonal cycles (2009–2012) for large bioregions across the globe. We found a seasonal amplitude gradient of 0.74–0.77 ppm for every 10∘ of latitude in the satellite data, with similar gradients for rise and fall segments. This translates to a south–north seasonal amplitude gradient of 8 ppm for XCO2, about half the gradient in seasonal amplitude based on surface site in situ CO2 data (∼19 ppm). The latitudinal gradients in the period of the satellite-derived seasonal cycles were of opposing sign and magnitude (−9 d per 10∘ latitude for fall segments and 10 d per 10∘ latitude for rise segments) and suggest that a specific latitude (∼2∘ N) exists that defines an inversion point for the period asymmetry. Before (after) the point of asymmetry inversion, the periods of rise segments are lesser (greater) than the periods of fall segments; only a single model could reproduce this emergent pattern. The asymmetry in amplitude and the period between rise and fall segments introduces a novel pattern in seasonal cycle analyses, but, while we show these emergent patterns exist in the data, we are still breaking ground in applying the information for science applications. Maybe the most useful application is that the segmentation analysis allowed us to decompose the model biases into their correlated parts of biases in amplitude, period and phase independently for rise and fall segments. We offer an extended discussion on how such information about model biases and the emergent patterns in satellite-derived seasonal cycles can be used to guide future inquiry and model development.
segmentation algorithm↗