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DOE OSTI2021

Evaluations of the Fates of Alkali Metals, Actinides, Mercury, and Iodine During DWPF Recycle Diversion

The fates of alkali metals, actinides, mercury, and iodine in the Defense Waste Processing Facility Recycle Diversion process (as currently conceptualized) have been evaluated through paper studies based on available knowledge of the chemistry, physical properties, solubility, and volatility of the various species involved. The effect of pH in the range from 9 to 13 has been discussed. Recommendations for additional studies to close technology gaps have been provided, many of which are contingent upon the results of pending testing and sample characterization efforts. There is uncertainty in the amounts of soluble actinides passing through the process filter, though the bulk of the actinides should be captured on the filter with the Recycle Collection Tank solids and the total amounts of actinides should be relatively low. The Recycle Collection Tank pH could impact the fraction of actinides reaching the evaporator, but the primary factors determining the actinide fate are expected to be the amount of CO 2 sorption from air sparging or, for certain actinides (such as plutonium), oxidation and/or sorption to MnO 2 solids from permanganate additions to destroy the glycolate anion. Process optimization could minimize the amounts of actinides passing the filter. Depending upon the levels of mercury observed in recycle stream samples and because of the volatility of mercury, the evaporator should be designed with the capability to remove dense mercury phases from the condensate to avoid exceeding ETP WAC limits. The facility design must be adequate to transfer dense mercury phases and testing to confirm mercury transfer is needed. Simulant containing mercury is recommended for both filtration and evaporation testing. OLI Modeling of the various recycle streams is recommended to provide insight on the fate of iodine. Iodine-spiked simulants are recommended for upcoming evaporation tests. The pro) ect should consider the likelihood and impact of NAS scale formation in the evaporators. Process optimization may be needed to minimize the accumulation of NAS scale and possibly the sorption of actinides in the evaporator. Actual waste testing of the Recycle Diversion filtration and evaporation should include the analysis of actinides, mercury, and iodine to determine their partitioning.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

235-F GoldSim Fate and Transport Model: Uncertainty Quantification

Building 235-F was configured with two missions in mind: Actinide Billet Line (ABL) and the fabrication of Pu-238 oxide for space program applications. ABL produced Np-237 billets for use in SRS reactors, whereas the design process, fabrication, and examination of Pu-238 oxide powder occurred within the following areas, respectively: Plutonium Experimental Facility (PEF), Plutonium Fuel Form (PuFF), and Old Metallography Lab (OML). By 1990 production ceased and by 2006 de-inventory occurred; however, assays have shown significant holdup remains within ABL and PuFF. As a result, 235-F is a Category 2 nuclear facility, with plans to undergo deactivation and decommission (D and D) via In-Situ Disposal (ISD). The purpose of this project is to ensure United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) groundwater radiation maximum contaminant level (MCL) and dosage standards are met during the D and D of 235-F by quantifying uncertainty through probabilistic modeling and evaluation of various ISD alternatives. GoldSim is a dynamic modeling software package with a graphical, object-oriented interface capable of capturing the influence of complex system input variability on probabilistic system outcomes. A GoldSim stochastic fate and transport model for 235-F was developed and matched with a PORFLOW deterministic model to simulate probabilistic release and flow of radionuclides from ABL and PuFF into the vadose zone, the Upper Three Runs (UTR) Aquifer, and UTR Creek. The GoldSim model was used to probabilistically evaluate four ISD scenarios against USEPA groundwater radiation MCLs and dosage standards. The deterministic 235-F GoldSim fate and transport model continues to be refined to match the results of the PORFLOW deterministic model to ensure the model accurately represents radionuclide movement through the groundwater system. The stochastic variables that are utilized within the GoldSim model are founded on the most current data; a conservative perspective is taken where needed. Alignment with the PORFLOW deterministic model, coupled with input stochastic variability, allows the probabilistic 235-F GoldSim model to capture the conservative breadth of possible outcomes for radionuclide fate within this particular system. This ensures that the USEPA MCLs and dosage limits hold even in the worst case scenarios.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

PCM1 coordinates centrosome asymmetry with polarized endosome dynamics to regulate daughter cell fate

Vertebrate radial glia progenitors (RGPs) balance self-renewal and differentiation through asymmetric cell division (ACD), which involves unequal centrosome inheritance. How centrosome asymmetry directs cell fate remains poorly understood. Here, we identify Pericentriolar material 1 (Pcm1) as a key player in this process. In zebrafish embryonic RGPs, Pcm1 is asymmetrically associated with Cep83, a mother centrosome marker. Using in vivo time-lapse imaging and nanoscale-resolution expansion microscopy, we detect Pcm1 on Notch ligand-containing endosomes, where it interacts–either directly or indirectly–with Par-3 and dynein. Loss of pcm1 disrupts endosome dynamics, increasing neuronal differentiation at the expense of RGP self-renewal. Mechanistically, Pcm1 facilitates the transition from Rab5b to Rab11a and promotes the assembly of Par-3 and dynein macromolecular complexes on recycling endosomes. Furthermore, we find conserved PARD3-PCM1-CEP83-RAB11 associations in human cortical brain organoids. Our findings uncover that Pcm1 links centrosome asymmetry to polarized endosome trafficking, thereby regulating RGP fate decisions.

Cell fate and cell lineage↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Iron and Organic Carbon Colloids in Boreal Rivers and Their Fate at High Salinity

Riverine colloids are important carriers of macronutrients, trace metals, and pollutants into marine waters. The aim of the current study was to extend the understanding of iron (Fe) and organic carbon (OC) colloids in boreal rivers and their fate at higher salinities. X-ray absorbance spectroscopy (XAS) and dynamic light scattering (DLS) were combined to explore Fe speciation and colloidal characteristics such as size and surface charge and how these are affected at increasing salinity. XAS confirmed the presence of two Fe phases in the river waters—Fe-organic matter (OM) complexes and Fe(oxy)hydroxides. From DLS measurements on filtered and unfiltered samples, three particle size distributions were identified. The smallest particles (10–40 nm) were positively charged and suggested to consist of essentially bare Fe (oxy)hydroxide nanoparticles. The largest particles (300–900 nm) were dominated by Fe(oxy)hydroxides associated with chromophoric molecular matter. An intermediate size distribution (100–200 nm) with a negative surface charge was presumably dominated by OM and containing Fe-OM complexes. Increasing the salinity resulted in a removal of the smallest distribution. Unexpectedly, both the intermediate and largest size distributions were still detected at high salinity. The collective results suggest that Fe(oxy) hydroxides and Fe-OM complexes are both found across the wide size range studied and that colloidal size does not necessarily reflect either Fe speciation or stability toward salinity-induced aggregation. The findings further demonstrate that also particles beyond the typically studied <0.45-μm size range should be considered to fully understand the riverine transport and fate of macronutrients, trace metals, and pollutants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integration of a Frost Mortality Scheme Into the Demographic Vegetation Model FATES

Frost is damaging to plants when air temperature drops below their tolerance threshold. The set of mechanisms used by cold-tolerant plants to withstand freezing is called “hardening” and typically take place in autumn to protect against winter damage. The recent incorporation of a hardening scheme in the demographic vegetation model FATES opens up the possibility to investigate frost mortality to vegetation. Previously, the hardening scheme was used to improve hydraulic processes in cold-tolerant plants. In this study, we expand upon the existing hardening scheme by implementing hardiness-dependent frost mortality into CLM5.0-FATES to study the impacts of frost on vegetation in temperate and boreal sites from 1950 to 2015. Our results show that the original freezing mortality approach of FATES, where each plant type had a fixed freezing tolerance threshold—an approach common to many other dynamic vegetation models, was restricted to predicting plant type distribution. The main results emerging from the new scheme are a high autumn and spring frost mortality, especially at colder sites, and increasing mid-winter frost mortality due to global warming, especially at warmer sites. We demonstrate that the new frost scheme is a major step forward in dynamically representing vegetation in ESMs by for the first time including a level of frost tolerance that is responding to the environment and includes some level of cost (implicitly) and benefit. By linking hardening and frost mortality in a land surface model, we open new ways to explore the impact of frost events in the context of global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) for Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery

Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency for the Bisley forests to shift toward the light demanding plant functional type (PFT) when the pre-hurricane biomass between the light demanding and shade tolerant PFTs is nearly equal and forests experience hurricane disturbance with mortality >60% for both the two PFTs. Under more realistic conditions where the shade tolerant PFT is initially dominant, mortality >80% is required for a shift toward dominance of the light demanding PFT at Bisley. Hurricane mortality and background mortality are the two major factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery in simulations. This research improves understanding of the ELM-FATES model behavior associated with hurricane disturbance and provides guidance for dynamic vegetation model development in representing hurricane induced forest damage with varied intensities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gibberellins promote polar auxin transport to regulate stem cell fate decisions in cambium

Vascular cambium contains bifacial stem cells, which produce secondary xylem to one side and secondary phloem to the other. However, how these fate decisions are regulated is unknown. Here we show that the positioning of an auxin signalling maximum within the cambium determines the fate of stem cell daughters. The position is modulated by gibberellin-regulated, PIN1-dependent polar auxin transport. Gibberellin treatment broadens auxin maximum from the xylem side of the cambium towards the phloem. As a result, xylem-side stem cell daughter preferentially differentiates into xylem, while phloem-side daughter retains stem cell identity. Occasionally, this broadening leads to direct specification of both daughters as xylem, and consequently, adjacent phloem-identity cell reverts to being stem cell. Conversely, reduced gibberellin levels favour specification of phloem-side stem cell daughter as phloem. Together, our data provide a mechanism by which gibberellin regulates the ratio of xylem and phloem production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global distribution, formation and fate of mineral‐associated soil organic matter under a changing climate: A trait‐based perspective

Abstract Soil organic matter (SOM) is the largest actively cycling reservoir of terrestrial carbon (C), and the majority of SOM in Earth's mineral soils (~65%) is mineral‐associated organic matter (MAOM). Thus, the formation and fate of MAOM can exert substantial influence on the global C cycle. To predict future changes to Earth's climate, it is critical to mechanistically understand the processes by which MAOM is formed and decomposed, and to accurately represent this process‐based understanding in biogeochemical and Earth system models. In this review, we use a trait‐based framework to synthesize the interacting roles of plants, soil micro‐organisms, and the mineral matrix in regulating MAOM formation and decomposition. Our proposed framework differentiates between plant and microbial traits that influence total OM inputs to the soil (‘feedstock traits’) versus traits that influence the proportion of OM inputs that are ultimately incorporated into MAOM (‘MAOM formation traits’). We discuss how these feedstock and MAOM formation traits may be altered by warming, altered precipitation and elevated carbon dioxide. At a planetary scale, these feedstock and MAOM formation traits help shape the distribution of MAOM across Earth's biomes, and modulate biome‐specific responses of MAOM to climate change. We leverage a global synthesis of MAOM measurements to provide estimates of the total amount of MAOM‐C globally (~840–1540 Pg C; 34%–51% of total terrestrial organic C), and its distribution across Earth's biomes. We show that MAOM‐C concentration is highest in temperate forests and grasslands, and lowest in shrublands and savannas. Grasslands and croplands have the highest proportion of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the MAOM fraction (i.e. the MAOM‐C:SOC ratio), while boreal forests and tundra have the lowest MAOM‐C:SOC ratio. Drawing on our trait framework, we then review experimental data and posit the effects of climate change on MAOM pools in different biomes. We conclude by discussing how MAOM is integrated into soil C models, and how feedstock and MAOM formation traits may be included in these models. We also summarize the projected fate of MAOM under climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and discuss key model uncertainties. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Single rhenium atoms on nanomagnetite: Probing the recharge process that controls the fate of rhenium in the environment

Understanding the redox transitions that control rhenium geochemistry is central to paleoredox and geochronology studies, as well as predicting the fate of chemically similar hazardous oxyanions in the environment such as pertechnetate. However, detailed mechanistic information regarding rhenium redox transitions in anoxic systems is scarce. Here, we performed a comprehensive laboratory study of rhenium redox transitions on variably oxidized magnetite nanoparticle surfaces. Through high-end spectroscopic and microscopic tools, we propose an abiotic transition pathway in which aqueous iron(II) ions in the presence of pure or preoxidized magnetite serve as an electron source to reduce rhenium(VII) to individual rhenium(IV) atoms or small polynuclear species on nanoparticle surfaces. Notably, iron(II) ions recharged preoxidized magnetite nanoparticles exhibit a maghemite core and a magnetite shell, challenging the traditional core-shell magnetite-maghemite model. This study provides a fundamental understanding of redox processes governing rhenium fate and transport in the environment and enables an improved basis for predicting its speciation in geochemical systems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2020

FATES size- and age-dependent mortality simulation output analysis scripts

This dataset contains python scripts to analyse outputs from the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) and accompanies the paper “Needham, J.F., Chambers, J., Fisher, R., Knox, R., and Koven, C. D., Forest responses to simulated elevated CO2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality, 2020, Global Change Biology”. These scripts process FATES outputs from size- and age-dependent mortality simulations which were run to test the effect of different mechanisms of mortality on forest response to elevated CO2 (eCO2). Specifically, these scripts will process single plant functional type (PFT) simulations in which mortality is either a constant background rate, size-dependent or age-dependent. In each case, a simulation with constant woody NPP is compared to a simulation in which woody NPP increases by 25% to simulate the growth response of forests to eCO2. In addition, the data package contains scripts to analyse ensemble simulations with size- and age-dependent mortality and two PFTs, that were run to test the impact of different demographic rates on coexistence and the forest response to eCO2. Finally, the dataset includes scripts for processing simulations testing the sensitivity of results to allometry and to the recruitment scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

FATES size- and age-dependent mortality simulation outputs, 2019

This dataset contains outputs from the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) and accompanies the paper “Needham, J.F., Chambers, J., Fisher, R., Knox, R., and Koven, C. D., Forest responses to simulated elevated CO2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality, 2020, Global Change Biology”. Data are unprocessed FATES outputs from size- and age-dependent mortality simulations which were run to test the effect of different mechanisms of mortality on forest response to elevated CO2 (eCO2). Specifically, this data package contains single plant functional type (PFT) simulations in which mortality is either a constant background rate, size-dependent or age-dependent. In each case, a simulation with constant woody NPP is compared to a simulation in which woody NPP increases by 25% to simulate the growth response of forests to eCO2. Ensemble simulations with size- and age-dependent mortality and two PFTs test the impact of different demographic rates on coexistence and the forest response to eCO2. Finally, the dataset includes simulations testing the sensitivity of results to allometry and to the recruitment scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling

The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3, documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe the application of the hydraulic property fields and recharge parameters documented in ECF-HANFORD-20-0027, Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model, to the CA flow and fate and transport simulation results to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated results due to input parameter selection. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, models lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. The result of NSCM analysis is a set of F&T simulations that provide an estimate of the range of possible outcomes that are used to quantify the uncertainty in simulated concentrations produced using the base case simulations. The simulated concentrations from all simulations will support calculation of the uncertainty of the total dose calculated in a separate calculation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Ammonia Discharge into PUREX Crib 216-A-37-1 and Nitrogen Species Fate in the Subsurface

Based on published data, this report identifies potential fate and transport mechanisms for the ammonium hydroxide condensate that was discharged to 216-A-37-1 Crib from Hanford fuel rod decladding before PUREX dissolution and separation operations. Crib 216-A-37-1 received 377 million liters of alkaline condensate discharged from March 1977 through April 1989. The following major processes were identified as controlling the ammonia (NH 3 ) fate and transport: 1. Liquid migration rates through the vadose zone 2. NH 3 microbial oxidation to nitrite and nitrate 3. Ammonia species [NH4 + , NH 3 (aq)] sorption to sediments 4. NH3 precipitation reactions after pH buffering occurs in sediments The travel time through the vadose zone was estimated to be 2.5 to 9 months during periods of high subsurface discharge rates. These travel times are based on tritium migration through the vadose zone, a co-contaminant also discharged to the 216-A-37-1 crib.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Viral Fate and Transport for COVID-19 - NVBL

The NVBL Viral Fate and Transport Team includes researchers from eleven DOE national laboratories and is utilizing unique experimental facilities combined with physics-based and data-driven modeling and simulation to study the transmission, transport, and fate of SARSCoV-2. The team was focused on understanding and ultimately predicting SARS-CoV-2 viability in varied environments with the goal of rapidly informing strategies that guide the nation’s resumption of normal activities. The primary goals of this project include prioritizing administrative and engineering controls that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within an enclosed environment; identifying the chemical and physical properties that influence binding of SARS-CoV-2 to common surfaces; and understanding the contribution of environmental reservoirs and conditions on transmission and resurgence of SARS-CoV-2.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Viral Fate and Transport for COVID-19

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire trap” in the tropics: insights from FATES_15.0.0

Abstract. Fire is a fundamental part of the Earth system, with impacts on vegetation structure, biomass, and community composition, the latter mediated in part via key fire-tolerance traits, such as bark thickness. Due to anthropogenic climate change and land use pressure, fire regimes are changing across the world, and fire risk has already increased across much of the tropics. Projecting the impacts of these changes at global scales requires that we capture the selective force of fire on vegetation distribution through vegetation functional traits and size structure. We have adapted the fire behavior and effects module, SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE), for use with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a size-structured vegetation demographic model. We test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the biogeography of tropical forests and grasslands. We assign different fire-tolerance strategies based on crown, leaf, and bark characteristics, which are key observed fire-tolerance traits across woody plants. For these simulations, three types of vegetation compete for resources: a fire-vulnerable tree with thin bark, a vulnerable deep crown, and fire-intolerant foliage; a fire-tolerant tree with thick bark, a thin crown, and fire-tolerant foliage; and a fire-promoting C4 grass. We explore the model sensitivity to a critical parameter governing fuel moisture and show that drier fuels promote increased burning, an expansion of area for grass and fire-tolerant trees, and a reduction of area for fire-vulnerable trees. This conversion to lower biomass or grass areas with increased fuel drying results in increased fire-burned area and its effects, which could feed back to local climate variables. Simulated size-based fire mortality for trees less than 20 cm in diameter and those with fire-vulnerable traits is higher than that for larger and/or fire-tolerant trees, in agreement with observations. Fire-disturbed forests demonstrate reasonable productivity and capture observed patterns of aboveground biomass in areas dominated by natural vegetation for the recent historical period but have a large bias in less disturbed areas. Though the model predicts a greater extent of burned fraction than observed in areas with grass dominance, the resulting biogeography of fire-tolerant, thick-bark trees and fire-vulnerable, thin-bark trees corresponds to observations across the tropics. In areas with more than 2500 mm of precipitation, simulated fire frequency and burned area are low, with fire intensities below 150 kW m−1, consistent with observed understory fire behavior across the Amazon. Areas drier than this demonstrate fire intensities consistent with those measured in savannas and grasslands, with high values up to 4000 kW m−1. The results support a positive grass–fire feedback across the region and suggest that forests which have existed without frequent burning may be vulnerable at higher fire intensities, which is of greater concern under intensifying climate and land use pressures. The ability of FATES to capture the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining biogeography provides a useful tool for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of these critical carbon storage areas under changing conditions across the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Formation and fate of freshwater on an ice floe in the Central Arctic

The melt of snow and sea ice during the Arctic summer is a significant source of relatively fresh meltwater. The fate of this freshwater, whether in surface melt ponds or thin layers underneath the ice and in leads, impacts atmosphere–ice–ocean interactions and their subsequent coupled evolution. Here, we combine analyses of datasets from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (June–July 2020) for a process study on the formation and fate of sea ice freshwater on ice floes in the Central Arctic. Our freshwater budget analyses suggest that a relatively high fraction (58 %) is derived from surface melt. Additionally, the contribution from stored precipitation (snowmelt) outweighs by 5 times the input from in situ summer precipitation (rain). The magnitude and rate of local meltwater production are remarkably similar to those observed on the prior Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign, where the cumulative summer freshwater production totaled around 1 m during both. A relatively small fraction (10 %) of freshwater from melt remains in ponds, which is higher on more deformed second-year ice (SYI) compared to first-year ice (FYI) later in the summer. Most meltwater drains laterally and vertically, with vertical drainage enabling storage of freshwater internally in the ice by freshening brine channels. In the upper ocean, freshwater can accumulate in transient meltwater layers on the order of 0.1 to 1 m thick in leads and under the ice. The presence of such layers substantially impacts the coupled system by reducing bottom melt and allowing false bottom growth; reducing heat, nutrient, and gas exchange; and influencing ecosystem productivity. Regardless, the majority fraction of freshwater from melt is inferred to be ultimately incorporated into the upper ocean (75 %) or stored internally in the ice (14 %). Terms such as the annual sea ice freshwater production and meltwater storage in ponds could be used in future work as diagnostics for global climate and process models. For example, the range of values from the CESM2 climate model roughly encapsulate the observed total freshwater production, while storage in melt ponds is underestimated by about 50 %, suggesting pond drainage terms as a key process for investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗