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Assessing fossil fuel CO 2 emissions in California using atmospheric observations and models

Analysis systems incorporating atmospheric observations could provide a powerful tool for validating fossil fuel CO 2 (ffCO 2 ) emissions reported for individual regions, provided that fossil fuel sources can be separated from other CO 2 sources or sinks and atmospheric transport can be accurately accounted for. We quantified ffCO 2 by measuring radiocarbon ( 14 C) in CO 2 , an accurate fossil-carbon tracer, at nine observation sites in California for three months in 2014-15. There is strong agreement between the measurements and ffCO 2 simulated using a high-resolution atmospheric model and a spatiotemporally-resolved fossil fuel flux estimate. Inverse estimates of total in-state ffCO 2 emissions are consistent with the California Air Resources Board's reported ffCO 2 emissions, providing tentative validation of California's reported ffCO 2 emissions in 2014-15. Continuing this prototype analysis system could provide critical independent evaluation of reported ffCO 2 emissions and emissions reductions in California, and the system could be expanded to other, more data-poor regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Titanium-Cerium Electrode-Decoupled Redox Flow Batteries Integrated With Fossil Fuel Assets For Load-Following, Long-Duration Energy Storage

Operation of fossil plants at partial capacity with frequent cycling results in decreased efficiency, increased emissions and increased wear and maintenance. The objective of this project is to advance the integration of a titanium-cerium electrode-decoupled redox flow battery (RFB) system with conventional fossil-fueled power plants through technical and economic system-level studies and component scale-up and R&D. The Ti-Ce chemistry has a pathway to meet the DOE cost targets of $\$$100/kWh and $\$$0.05/kWh-cycle owing to the use of low-cost, earth abundant elemental actives and incorporation of inexpensive carbon felt electrodes and non-fluorinated anion exchange membrane (AEM) separators. The initial unit cell design was scaled up, with some modifications made to improve ease of manufacturing, from 25 cm 2 cell area to 400 cm 2 . Electrochemical tests demonstrated operation at a current density up to 50 mA/cm 2 , which is on par with other commercial RFB offerings. Furthermore, the Ti-Ce technology developed by WashU was evaluated and tested by industrial team partner, Giner, Inc., in their modular 3-cell stack. Several cell design modifications and alternate component material selections were successfully implemented to accommodate this chemistry while reducing polarization and leakage. Results from stack testing show high columbic efficiency and indicate that further optimization of cell compression and components will lead to successful operation of the Ti-Ce ED-RFB over longer duration at the multi-cell stack level. Engineering and cost analysis showed that an RFB system with power output on the order of 100 MW and with a charge/discharge duration of approx. 12 hours is the most cost effective for integration with fossil plants. At this scale, projected cycling of fossil fuel power plants can be significantly reduced. The use of a storage system is shown to reduce the fossil plant standalone cost of electricity by $\$$7/MWh, through increased capacity factor and improved average efficiency, in the scenario of high penetration of renewable power.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Evaluating the Impact of Retiring Synchronous Fossil Fuel Generators on Inter-Area Oscillations in the U.S. Western Interconnection

To facilitate the decarbonization of the power grid, fossil-fuel-based synchronous generators are gradually being retired and replaced by inverter-interfaced renewable energy resources. As synchronous machines get displaced, the characteristics of inter-area oscillation modes in electrical interconnections will change. This paper describes a model-based study of the impact of the retirement of synchronous fossil-fuel generators on the oscillatory characteristics of the US Western Interconnection (WI). Results show that if fossil-fuel-based synchronous machines are replaced by grid-forming inverters, then dominant inter-area modes seen in the WI today will change. New inter-area modes may appear due to the electromechanical energy exchange among remaining hydropower generators clustered in geographical proximity in the northwestern part of the WI. This observation indicates that the evolution in modal properties needs to be closely tracked as the resource mix in electrical interconnections changes.

grid forming inverter, wide area oscillation, Inte↗

Toward Verifying Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions with the CMAQ Model: Motivation, Model Description and Initial Simulation

Motivated by the urgent need for emission verification of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, we have developed regional CO2 simulation with CMAQ over the contiguous U.S. Model sensitivity experiments have been performed using three different sets of inputs for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and two fossil fuel emission inventories, to understand the roles of fossil fuel emissions, atmosphere-biosphere exchange and transport in regulating the spatial and diurnal variability of CO2 near the surface, and to characterize the well-known ‘signal-to-noise’ problem, i.e. the interference from the biosphere on the interpretation of atmospheric CO2 observations. It is found that differences in the meteorological conditions for different urban areas strongly contribute to the contrast in concentrations. The uncertainty of NEE, as measured by the difference among the three different NEE inputs, has notable impact on regional distribution of CO2 simulated by CMAQ. Larger NEE uncertainty and impact are found over eastern U.S. urban areas than along the western coast. A comparison with tower CO2 measurements at Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) shows that the CMAQ model using hourly varied and high-resolution CO2 emission from the Vulcan inventory and CarbonTracker optimized NEE reasonably reproduce the observed diurnal profile, whereas switching to different NEE inputs significantly degrades the model performance. Spatial distribution of CO2 is found to correlate with NOx, SO2 and CO, due to their similarity in emission sources and transport processes. These initial results from CMAQ demonstrate the power of a state-of-the art CTM in helping interpret CO2 observations and verify fossil fuel emissions. The ability to simulate CO2 in CMAQ will also facilitate investigations of the utility of traditionally regulated pollutants and other species as tracers to CO2 source attribution.

CMAQ↗

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China’s total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China’s carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000–2012 than the value reported by China’s national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China’s cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China’s CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China’s cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China’s emissions in 2000–2013 may be larger than China’s estimated total forest sink in 1990–2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China’s land carbon sink in 2000–2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hestia SW-IFL Onroad Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) product: Road segment-level annual FFCO2 emissions across Arizona (2017-2022), version 1.1

The SW-IFL onroad fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions data product represents CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels by motor vehicles (e.g., passenger cars, trucks, buses, motorcycles) traveling on designated roadways. The emissions are represented geographically on each road segment within the state of Arizona spanning the 2017 to 2022 time period. This data product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions data are provided in CSV (input data, ONR_FFCO2_AZ_county.csv) and GeoPackage form (output polyline objects - about 786,000 road segments, XXXX_AZ_v1.1.gpkg) designated by road class (interstates, arterials, collectors, local). The metadata file (Metadata_SW-IFL_Onroad_annualFFCO2_v1.1.docx) provides details about attributes and data formats. The GeoPackage emissions data are provided separately for local roads and nonlocal roads (interstates, arterials, collectors). The method file (Methods_SW-IFL_Onroad_annualFFCO2_v1.1.docx) describes the data processing flow and data sources. Update on 2024-04-17: Updates were made to both the input emission data file (.csv) and output segment-level emission file (.gpkg). There was an update in county-level emission input data (ONR_FFCO2_AZ_county.csv) and the entire road segments were reprocessed to reflect this update.Update on 2024-04-29: Update was made to one output segment-level emission file (Nonlocal_AZ_v1.0.gpkg). There was an error in the AADT values and the data were reprocessed to reflect this update.Update on 2024-10-22: Temporal coverage was extended to include 2022. VMT values were recalculated using new AADT data and the entire road segments were reprocessed to reflect these updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected Growth in Small-Scale, Fossil-Fueled Distributed Generation: Potential Implications for the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory

The generation capacity of small-scale (less than one megawatt) fossil-fueled electricity in the United States is anticipated to grow by threefold to twenty-fold from 2015 to 2040. However, in adherence with internationally agreed upon carbon accounting methods, the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) U.S. Greenhouse Inventory (GHGI) does not currently attribute greenhouse gases (GHGs) from these small-scale distributed generation sources to the electric power sector and instead accounts for these emissions in the sector that uses the distributed generation (e.g., the commercial sector). In addition, no other federal electric-sector GHG emission data product produced by the EPA or the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) can attribute these emissions to electricity. We reviewed the technical documentation for eight federal electric-sector GHG emission data products, interviewed the data product owners, collected their GHG emission estimates, and analyzed projections for growth in fossil-fueled distributed generation. We show that, by 2040, these small-scale generators could account for at least about 1%- 5% of total CO2 emissions from the U.S. electric power sector. If these emissions fall outside the electric power sector, the United States may not be able to completely and accurately track changes in electricity-related CO2 emissions, which could impact how the country sets GHG reduction targets and allocates mitigation resources. Because small-scale, fossil-fueled distributed generation is expected to grow in other countries as well, the results of this work also have implications for global carbon accounting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hestia-SWIFL: hourly anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 and heat on the 2km WRF grid, version 1.1

The Hestia-SWIFL version 1.1 anthropogenic heat (AH) and fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions data product represent emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuel and cement production within the state of Arizona from 2019 to 2022. This product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address extreme heat, air quality, climate change and related urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions are generated using a bottom-up/engineering approach and are tied to results generated by the Vulcan Project version 4, an effort to quantify space/time-resolved FFCO2 & AH emissions for the entire United States landscape. A large number of data sources are combined to best estimate the emissions at fine scales such as air quality emissions data, traffic flow data, building information, sociodemographic information, and fuel statistics. The AH product provides emissions for two emissions sources (transportation and point source emissions) in units of Watts per hour per square meter (W/m2) per year (annual files) or per hour (hourly files). The FFCO2 product provides emissions from nine individual emission sectors as well as the total, and in units of tons of carbon (tC) per grid cell per year or per hour. The output made available here places the native spatial resolution of the Hestia FFCO2 & AH emissions data product (points, lines, and polygons) into a regularized 2km x 2km grid at hourly and annual temporal resolutions, and stored in netCDF files. The exact spatial extent is defined by the ASU Weather Research Forecast (WRF) simulation grid. All data are processed using R/Python pm high-performance computing system. 2-27-2026 updates: Bugs in airport hourly profile (both AH and FFCO2) and building spatial patterns (FFCO2 only) were fixed. Hourly emissions are reprocessed for all years to reflect those changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monthly Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Isomass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude

The basic data provided in these data files are derived from time series of Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2011.html), the references therein, and the methodology described in Andres et al. (2011). The data accessible here take these tabular, national, mass-emissions data, multiply them by stable carbon isotopic signature (del 13C) as described in Andres et al. (2000), and distribute them spatially on a one degree latitude by one degree longitude grid. The within-country spatial distribution is achieved through a fixed population distribution as reported in Andres et al. (1996). Note that the mass-emissions data used here are based on fossil-fuel consumption estimates as these are more representative of within country emissions than fossil-fuel production estimates (see http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/faq.html#Q10 for a description why emission totals based upon consumption differ from those based upon production).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: 1751-2017

This data product is a time series of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacture. Estimates of CO2 emissions are included for the globe and by nation back to 1751, and include emissions from solid fuel consumption, liquid fuel consumption, gas fuel consumption, cement production, and gas flaring. Per capita CO2 emissions and emissions from international trade (bunker fuels) are included as well; bunker fuels are not included in country totals, but are assigned to the country in which loading took place. Estimates are generated using the United Nations Energy Statistics database and the United States Geologic Survey’s cement statistics. Datasets produced from this group at Appalachian State University are located here, and are also located at https://energy.appstate.edu/research/work-areas/cdiac-appstate. Historic CDIAC data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory are located here: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2017. This dataset is the foundational dataset for the annual global carbon budget and other carbon cycle analyses that need relevant fossil fuel CO2 data. Within this data package are spreadsheets (.csv) of global and national estimates of CO2 emissions as well as text files of the ranking of each country’s total CO2 emissions and per capita for that year.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determination of transition metal ions in fossil fuel associated wastewaters using chelation ion chromatography

Here, this study outlines the development and subsequent validation of a method using chelation ion chromatography (CIC) pretreatment followed by traditional ion chromatography (IC) and post column UV/vis detection to measure transition metals in fossil fuel wastewaters, such as oil & gas (O&G) brines and coal mine drainage (CMD) waters. Measurement of transition metals is often an important characterization step in the research of environmental and energy systems. IC represents one way to measure these metals with the advantages of being versatile, simple and relatively low cost compared to other analytical methods. However, high concentrations of alkali and alkaline earth metals present in fossil fuel wastewaters will decrease IC detectability of transition metals in these waters. In this study, a CIC method was developed for the analysis of transition metal ions (Fe 3+ , Cu 2+ , Ni 2+ , Zn 2+ , Co 2+ , Mn 2+ , and Fe 2+ ) in fossil fuel associated wastewaters such as Appalachian CMD and O&G wastewaters from the Permian and Bakken shale basins in the United States. CIC system incorporated an on-line chelator column (e.g., the MetPac CC-1) with high selectivity for transition metals over alkali and alkaline earth metals for salt matrix removal prior to transition metal separation and detection. Additional method developments also included acidifying all samples to 2% v/v HCl and using gradient elution rather than isocratic. The recoverability of transition metals in simple salt solutions commonly found in CMD and brine samples (e.g. NaCl, Na 2 SO 4 , CaCl 2 ) using CIC was evaluated and compared to that using traditional IC. Our results found that the CIC system significantly improved transition metal recoveries for samples in 10,000 mg/L CaCl 2 matrix, reaching 87%-108% recovery for all analytes, as opposed to 2-323% recovery in traditional IC. The limits of detection in this study achieved 10.09 – 161.2 μg/L, comparable to reported values in similar IC studies. The developed method was also verified with certified water samples, resulting in 89% - 111% recoveries in samples with higher analyte concentrations (i.e. >4x the LoDs). The developed method achieved 87% -112% recoveries for most analytes in CMD samples and 72%-138% recoveries for Bakken shale samples, relative to ICP-MS values. Overall, the current IC method can be a very good screening tool for fast and cheap analysis for transition metals at mg/L level, to facilitate selection of samples for more detailed ICP-MS analysis.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Estimating methane emissions from biological and fossil‐fuel sources in the San Francisco Bay Area

Abstract We present the first sector‐specific analysis of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) using CH 4 and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements from six sites during September – December 2015. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian inversion to separate the biological from fossil‐fuel (natural gas and petroleum) sources using the measurements of CH 4 and selected VOCs, a source‐specific 1 km CH 4 emission model, and an atmospheric transport model. We estimate that SFBA CH 4 emissions are 166–289 Gg CH 4 /yr (at 95% confidence), 1.3–2.3 times higher than a recent inventory with much of the underestimation from landfill. Including the VOCs, 82 ± 27% of total posterior median CH 4 emissions are biological and 17 ± 3% fossil fuel, where landfill and natural gas dominate the biological and fossil‐fuel CH 4 of prior emissions, respectively.

Jeong, Seongeun↗

Single-column cryogenic air separation: Enabling efficient oxygen production with rapid startup and low capital costs—application to low-carbon fossil-fuel plants

The rapid integration of intermittent renewable sources into the electricity grid is driving the need for more flexible, low-carbon fossil-fuel plants with lower capital costs. This then drives the need to improve the cryogenic air separation unit (ASU). To address this changing landscape, we explore a Praxair single-column ASU (PSC-ASU) design with the goal of reducing costs and improving flexibility, compared to a conventional double-column ASU. The PSC-ASU incorporates partial air condensation and air pre-separation in the bottom reboiler with a phase separator as well as N 2 -enriched vapor condensation in the upper reboiler to decrease energy consumption, as compared to Linde’s single-column ASU. All three of the above-mentioned ASU designs are simulated in Aspen Plus and analyzed. An economic analysis is applied to evaluate the relative cost savings of the PSC-ASU compared to the double-column ASU. Results suggest that the specific energy consumption of the PSC-ASU is significantly lower than that of Linde’s single-column ASU due to a drastically improved oxygen recovery rate. Although this improved oxygen recovery rate is still lower than that of the double-column ASU, the required pressure ratio of the main air compressor is 21% lower than that of the double-column ASU. As a result, the specific energy consumption of the PSC-ASU is only 1.9% greater than that of the double-column ASU for producing 95.1 mol% O 2 . However, the PSC-ASU reduces the hourly capital cost by 19% due to the elimination of a high-pressure column. This would effectively decrease the total hourly cost of the ASU, and thus the total hourly cost of low-carbon, fossil-fuel power plants that require oxygen.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy

India has set aggressive targets to install more than 400 GW of wind and solar electricity generation by 2030, with more than two-thirds of that capacity coming from solar. This paper examines the electricity and carbon mitigation costs to reliably operate India’s grid in 2030 for a variety of wind and solar targets (200 GW to 600 GW) and the most promising options for reducing these costs. We find that systems where solar photovoltaic comprises only 25 to 50% of the total renewable target have the lowest carbon mitigation costs in most scenarios. This result invites a reexamination of India’s proposed solar-majority targets. We also find that, compared to other regions and contrary to prevailing assumptions, meeting high renewable targets will avoid building very few new fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) power plants because of India’s specific weather patterns and need to meet peak electricity demand. However, building 600 GW of renewable capacity, with the majority being wind plants, reduces how often fossil fuel power plants run, and this amount of capacity can hold India’s 2030 emissions below 2018 levels for less than the social cost of carbon. With likely wind and solar cost declines and increases in coal energy costs, balanced or wind-majority high renewable energy systems (600 GW or ≈ 45% share by energy) could result in electricity costs similar to a fossil fuel-dominated system. As an alternative strategy for meeting peak electricity demand, battery storage can avert the need for new fossil fuel capacity but is cost effective only at low capital costs (≈ USD 150 per kWh).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solution combustion synthesis of iron-based alumina catalysts for dehydrogenation of fossil fuels

Microwave-assisted thermocatalytic dehydrogenation of fossil fuels has been proposed as a method for hydrogen production with no CO2 emissions. The byproduct is carbon, which has a commercial value. Iron-based alumina nanocomposites are promising catalysts for this process as they both absorb microwave radiation and catalyze the dehydrogenation. In addition, they may have magnetic properties, which could be used for their separation from the carbon byproduct. Solution combustion synthesis (SCS) is an attractive technique for the fabrication of iron-based alumina nanocomposites because it can produce high specific surface area oxides in a facile manner. However, the effects of the heating mode, the fuel, and the iron/aluminum ratio on the combustion synthesis behavior and the product properties have not been studied yet. In the present work, the iron-based alumina nanocomposites were obtained by SCS using a hotplate, a muffle furnace, and a microwave oven. The initial mixtures were aqueous solutions of iron nitrate, aluminum nitrate, and an organic fuel. The concentrations of the two nitrates were varied in proportion to Fe:Al molar ratios of 1:2, 1:1, and 2:1. Two fuels were tested: citric acid and glycine. The combustion was less vigorous when citric acid was used as the fuel, which is explained by the lower exothermicity of the reaction. X-ray diffraction analysis of the products confirmed the formation of complex oxides of Fe and Al, specifically it detected hercynite and magnetite phases. Brunauer-Emmett-Teller surface area analysis has shown that the powders obtained using citric acid have specific surface areas as high as 276 m2/g, significantly higher than those obtained using glycine. Muffle furnace and hotplate heating led to comparable specific surface areas, while microwave heating resulted in significantly lower specific surface areas. The magnetic properties of the products increase with increasing the Fe/Al molar ratio from 1:2 (no response to a magnetic field) to 1:1 (weak response) and 2:1 (strong response).

solution combustion synthesis, nanoscale oxides, f↗

Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (1751 - 2011) (V. 2015)

Publications containing historical energy statistics make it possible to estimate fossil fuel CO2 emissions back to 1751. Etemad et al. (1991) published a summary compilation that tabulates coal, brown coal, peat, and crude oil production by nation and year. Footnotes in the Etemad et al.(1991) publication extend the energy statistics time series back to 1751. Summary compilations of fossil fuel trade were published by Mitchell (1983, 1992, 1993, 1995). Mitchell's work tabulates solid and liquid fuel imports and exports by nation and year. These pre-1950 production and trade data were digitized and CO2 emission calculations were made following the procedures discussed in Marland and Rotty (1984) and Boden et al. (1995). Further details on the contents and processing of the historical energy statistics are provided in Andres et al. (1999). The 1950 to present CO2 emission estimates are derived primarily from energy statistics published by the United Nations (2014), using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The energy statistics were compiled primarily from annual questionnaires distributed by the U.N. Statistical Office and supplemented by official national statistical publications. As stated in the introduction of the Statistical Yearbook, "in a few cases, official sources are supplemented by other sources and estimates, where these have been subjected to professional scrutiny and debate and are consistent with other independent sources." Data from the U.S. Department of Interior's Geological Survey (USGS 2014) were used to estimate CO2 emitted during cement production. Values for emissions from gas flaring were derived primarily from U.N. data but were supplemented with data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (1994), Rotty (1974), and data provided by G. Marland. Greater details about these methods are provided in Marland and Rotty (1984), Boden et al. (1995), and Andres et al. (1999).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (1751 - 2013) (V. 2016)

Publications containing historical energy statistics make it possible to estimate fossil fuel CO2 emissions back to 1751. Etemad et al. (1991) published a summary compilation that tabulates coal, brown coal, peat, and crude oil production by nation and year. Footnotes in the Etemad et al.(1991) publication extend the energy statistics time series back to 1751. Summary compilations of fossil fuel trade were published by Mitchell (1983, 1992, 1993, 1995). Mitchell's work tabulates solid and liquid fuel imports and exports by nation and year. These pre-1950 production and trade data were digitized and CO2 emission calculations were made following the procedures discussed in Marland and Rotty (1984) and Boden et al. (1995). Further details on the contents and processing of the historical energy statistics are provided in Andres et al. (1999). The 1950 to present CO2 emission estimates are derived primarily from energy statistics published by the United Nations (2016), using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The energy statistics were compiled primarily from annual questionnaires distributed by the U.N. Statistical Office and supplemented by official national statistical publications. As stated in the introduction of the Statistical Yearbook, "in a few cases, official sources are supplemented by other sources and estimates, where these have been subjected to professional scrutiny and debate and are consistent with other independent sources." Data from the U.S. Department of Interior's Geological Survey (USGS 2016) were used to estimate CO2 emitted during cement production. Values for emissions from gas flaring were derived primarily from U.N. data but were supplemented with data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (1994), Rotty (1974), and data provided by G. Marland. Greater details about these methods are provided in Marland and Rotty (1984), Boden et al. (1995), and Andres et al. (1999).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine (Final Report)

As the nation continues to encourage, through market structures and financial incentives, the proliferation of intermittent renewable electricity, how to optimize the ever-changing electric grid and identify means to retain and improve resilience, while ensuring continued reductions in GHG emissions, will be critical. According to Bloomberg, wind & solar generated 10.5% of US electricity in 2020 and that percentage continues to grow. In support of expanding renewable energy use, and to address its intermittent nature, this project will develop the Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform that is dispatchable, reliable, repeatable and have the ability to produce zero or negative carbon power while interfacing with geology capable of CO2 and hydrogen storage. GTI Energy (GTIE) and team members Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America (MHIA), Ameren Illinois, Hexagon Purus, and the Low Carbon Resources Initiative (LCRI) completed a Phase I Conceptual Study under contract DE-FE0032012 for Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine. The Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform addresses the intermittent nature of the expanding use of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) generation. The low cost of the electricity (COE) generated results in greater dispatch and more operation at higher power levels (higher efficiency), fewer short intervals, and fewer start/stop cycles. The reliable, resilient system can produce zero carbon power and store hydrogen. It will demonstrate hydrogen storage in geologic formations like those used in natural gas underground storage thus enabling large scale storage of hydrogen in sedimentary strata across the United States rather than in geographically restricted salt caverns. The Phase I study confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production. The study advanced the maturity of the H 2 storage-based system with flexible power generation by completing a Pre-FEED study (Phase II). The Pre-FEED focused on the selected Energy Farm on the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) site that includes above ground and underground hydrogen storage, low-carbon hydrogen production (GTI’s Compact Hydrogen Generator, CHG) with underground CO2 sequestration, and a 40-MW class gas turbine. The Pre-FEED addressed the entire system and its interconnection to the natural gas and electric grid and mitigation of key risks, such as storage behavior, load-following, and system operation. During Phase 1 of the project, the team completed key tasks, which moved the entire demonstration project, specific components and approaches closer to commercialization. These Phase I Accomplishments include: Completing System Requirements Review; Completing System Layout and Modeling - Heat & Mass Balance and Process Flow Diagram; Completing modelling of 9 turbine performance cases; Evaluating rock strata for underground storage of hydrogen and sequestration of carbon dioxide; Completing initial modelling of underground storage of hydrogen and withdrawal with evaluation of loss and water production; Identifying roadable storage for above ground hydrogen storage; Identifying existing electrical infrastructure for receiving/delivering electricity; Identifying existing gas supply infrastructure for receiving natural gas; Document concept design/development plans in required reports. Conclusions: The 12-month Feasibility study in Phase I study was completed and confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches and even lower cost than the reference NGCC plant without carbon capture when taking advantage of 45Q carbon credits. The study enabled the fidelity of the concept to be improved and allowed identification of the requirements for the system. Defining the individual system and component requirements was performed via the system requirements review with the whole team. These requirements were then incorporated into and iterated with our Heat & Mass Balance process model and process flow diagrams were generated to reflect the overall system. This information was then used to complete the TEA and show economic feasibility. Large scale non-salt geologic storage of hydrogen is an enabling technology for a hydrogen-fired turbine that can be retrofitted into large-scale electric generating units (EGU). Our demonstration will include 428 MWh or ~4 hours full load of hydrogen storage (above and underground). Carbon capture inherent to the CHG process can capture 90% CO 2 (with upgrades to >98%). This system provides a COE of 23% savings relative to an NGCC with a post combustion amine system. Our proposed storage system decouples carbon capture and hydrogen production from power production; therefore, we expect our proposed system’s efficiency and variable COE to be superior resulting in overall higher dispatch and reduced deep cycling. Our demonstration will be full to multi-day hydrogen storage and has the potential for longer (seasonal) duration commercially. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗