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Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau (FY 2020) (Rev. 2)

This document provides an updated Hanford Site composite analysis (CA). A Hanford Site CA was prepared and issued in 1998 (PNNL-11800) with an addendum provided in 2002 (PNNL-11800 Addendum 1). The CA was approved in 2002 (Frei, 2002) and has been maintained (DOE/RL-2000-29 and subsequent revisions) to support low-level waste disposal performance assessments (PAs) and disposal authorizations for facilities at the Hanford Site, including the following: Continued operation of the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) and the 200 East and 200 West Low-Level Burial Grounds; Construction of the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF); Forthcoming closure of tank residual waste systems such as Waste Management Area (WMA) C. The CA maintenance program resulted in a determination in 2015 (DOE/RL-2015-66) that the Hanford Site CA needed an update for the following reasons: While the initial Hanford Site CA has been maintained since 2001, the accumulation of basis changes reported in the annual summary reports over the succeeding 14 years merit evaluation in an updated analysis; The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Headquarters requested in a memorandum in 2015 (Gilbertson and Marcinowski, 2015) that “as soon as the relevant PAs are complete, the CA will be revised to account for all of the new information.” This updated Hanford Site CA accounts for the following new information: 1. Inclusion of a detailed Hanford Site baseline disposition that projects remedial activities through site closure. There have been significant changes through decision making in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) process that were not available when the original CA was produced; 2. Inclusion of an updated inventory basis, new modeling capabilities, and new decisions reached in the associated record of decision (ROD) that was provided by issuance of DOE/EIS-0391 in fiscal year (FY) 2013. Development of a Hanford Site groundwater model from the baseline provided in a technical transfer of models for the Final Tank Closure and Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0391) commenced in FY 2014 and resulted in the plateau-to-river (P2R) groundwater flow model that is used in this updated Hanford Site CA; 3. Accounting for pump and treat systems, which were not evaluated in the initial CA. Pump and treat systems have had significant impact on groundwater flow system behavior, contaminant transport, and contaminant removal from Hanford Site groundwater. This process is accounted for in the use of the P2R model for this updated Hanford Site CA; 4. Inclusion of water-level data collected since the initial CA was completed. Data collected as the unconfined aquifer water levels continue to recede since the cessation of large liquid discharges in the late 1990s have led to marked improvement in understanding of the flow system for future conditions, particularly regarding northward flow potential in the critical Gable Gap area. The calibration in the latest version of the P2R model accounts for this information; 5. Inclusion of results from the revised ERDF PA completed in 2013 (WCH-5209) that account for updated inventory and expansion of the ERDF facility to about twice the size that was evaluated in the original CA; 6. Use of updated geoframeworks to provide the structural basis for numerical fate and transport models in the groundwater pathway of this updated CA. The geologic basis for groundwater models has continued to improve with additional data collection and interpretation with the creation and maintenance of the Hanford South Geoframework and the Central Plateau Vadose Zone Geoframework tools; 7. Incorporation of updated tank residual inventory estimates. Tank residual inventory estimates have improved with the incorporation of tank retrieval inventory data for those tanks that have completed retrieval. The CA inventory data package includes this updated information; 8. Incorporation of WMA C PA results. Two additional PAs for tank farm closure decisions are in preparation during the period required to prepare an updated Hanford Site CA: WMA C (FY 2016) and WMA A-AX (in preparation). The WMA C PA results are incorporated into the updated Hanford Site CA, and its grouted residuals model is used as the basis for a release model to account for the other tank farm systems modeling in this updated CA; 9. An update to the IDF PA was submitted in FY 2017 and has been reviewed and approved. The results of the IDF PA are incorporated into this updated CA; 10. Updated risk assessment scenarios. The risk assessment scenarios currently in use for Hanford Site CERCLA and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) analyses differ from those evaluated in the initial Hanford Site CA. The representative person exposure scenario evaluated in this updated Hanford Site CA is consistent with recent PAs and CERCLA and RCRA analyses as the Hanford Site. This updated Hanford Site CA provides the following: A comparison of the updated Hanford Site CA all-pathway dose results with the performance measures during the compliance period, which is assumed to begin with site closure in calendar 2070 with the last scheduled disposal action and continue for 1,000 years postclosure (to calendar year 3069); A comparison of Hanford Site CA all-pathway dose results with the performance measures during the postcompliance period to address potential peaks beyond the compliance period. This is accomplished by evaluating dose in the period for 9,000 years following the compliance period (i.e., from calendar year 3070 to 12070).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Potential safety impacts associated with production of gaseous PuF 6 due to reactions between 3013-compliant PuO 2 with Novec TM 1230 at temperature

A part of the NNSA/SRNS Surplus Plutonium Disposition (SPD) project is a planned expansion of an existing facility with capabilities to handle, process, package, and characterize large amounts of plutonium oxide materials for permanent disposition at WIPP. The facility design for this future processing capability will include glovebox operations, HEPA filters, and exhaust/ventilation systems. An NNSA review of the facility support systems included comments on the potential residual reactivity of previously-stabilized PuO 2 , and on the possibility of chemical interactions between stabilized PuO 2 and a new fire suppressant (Novec TM 1230), a replacement for chlorinated/brominated compounds such as HALON TM , to be employed in the event of a room/glovebox fire where PuO 2 will be processed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

ETF Grout Expansion: Effects of Different Slags and Struvite Precipitation Protocols (Stirring Time)

The ETF ammonia tolerant grout waste form was developed by the Vitreous State Laboratory (VSL) to stabilize ammonium and thereby prevent emission of ammonia vapor during solidification of an ammonium-rich, concentrated sodium sulfate aqueous waste stream generated at the Hanford Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). VSL personnel did not observe expansion in samples prepared during the waste form development work. However, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) personnel detected expansion, in a few ETF grout samples, up to ~ 20 percent vertical expansion, while preforming work scope to evaluate the effect of ETF brine compositional ranges on the precipitation and solidification processes. The initial work requests can be found in Washington River Protection Services (WRPS) Statement of Work (SOW, Requisitions #: 339922 Revisions 0 and 1, March 11, 2021, and November 2021, respectively. As a result of the waste form expansion observed by SRNL, additional evaluation was requested by WRPS SOW Requisitions #: 356730 Revision 0 and Revision 1, February 1, 2022, and July 11, 2022, respectively. The goal of these requests was to determine whether differences in the slags and / or in sample preparation protocols used by VSL and SRNL were the cause of the expansion observed in the SRNL samples. G. Chen, WRPS, arranged a materials exchange between VSL and SRNL and coordinated the VSL protocol(s) for grouting and curing 1L batches of Base Case ETF base case simulant. Materials were exchanged between VSL and SRNL. Both laboratories performed the VSL struvite precipitation-solidification protocol and cured samples for at least 28 days. Differences in VSL and SRNL slag compositions, mineralogy and particle size results in themselves or combined were determined to not be the cause of the expansion because all samples expanded regardless of whether the VSL or SRNL slags were used. The fundamental cause of the observed expansion could not be attributed to minor variations in the following: 1) chemistry of the slag and other reagents, 2) container wall thickness, 3) ambient bench top curing conditions at VSL and SRNL, 4) pH adjustments to 7 ± a few tenths of unit, nor 5) stirring time between the precipitation and solidification process steps. Additional observations include: grout samples prepared with VSL slag expanded less than those prepared with the SRNL slag and, based on a very limited sample set, some samples stirred for longer times expanded less than those stirred for 20 minutes.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Digital Assurance for Grid Reliability in the Era of Large Load Growth

The rapid expansion of large electric loads is reshaping the operational and regulatory landscape of the U.S. electric grid. These facilities are reaching new scales of expansion, now exceeding a gigawatt per site, and their highly sensitive, digitally driven behaviors introduce new reliability risks. Recent grid events, including large load losses following routine transmission disturbances, highlight the consequences of limited ride-through capability, inconsistent protection settings, inadequate modeling, and lack of behind-the-meter visibility. Parallels to earlier integration challenges of new grid technologies suggest that the grid’s existing processes, standards, and interconnection frameworks are no longer adequate for emerging large loads. This brief synthesizes lessons from the evolution of inverter-based resource regulation and applies them to large-load integration. It identifies critical gaps in modeling accuracy, interconnection processes, performance standards, and compliance mechanisms. Technical recommendations emphasize advanced monitoring, improved modeling, coordinated communication protocols, modernized substations, and structured behind-the-meter control schemes. Collectively, these measures provide a roadmap to maintain bulk power system reliability while enabling the continued growth of large, electrified digital infrastructure.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Numerical study of multi-component flow and mixing in a scaled fission product venting system

Numerical simulation of isothermal multi-component gas flow was conducted to study fluid flow and mixing in a scaled low-pressure, low-temperature test facility for the fission product venting system (FPVS) of a gas cooled fast reactor (GFR). The geometry of FPVS test facility was an open loop including gradual expansion coupling and two 90°pipe elbows. First, the validation of large eddy simulation (LES) wall-adapting local eddy-viscosity (WALE) turbulent model was performed for transitional flow in a circular pipe with gradual expansion. The reactingFOAM solver in OpenFOAM v8 was employed. By introducing appropriate turbulence disturbance at the flow inlet, such as turbulence intensity, the numerical results showed good agreement in (1) the velocity profile downstream of the pipe expansion measured by particle image velocimetry (PIV) in this study, and (2) the reattachment length reported in the literature. Using this validated model, the numerical simulation of flow and component mixing was performed for the FPVS with an inlet flowrate corresponding to a Reynolds number of 2,400 to investigate the flow behavior and component mixing. Standard deviation of the mass fraction of component, referred to as absolute mixing index (AMI), was calculated to quantify the mixing of components, showing that the component mixing length determined by AMI is related to the reattachment length downstream of the expansion. Additionally, this study was able to identify the best location in the FPVS test facility to measure the velocity and concentration profies where multicomponent flow is well mixed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

ETF Grout Expansion: Evaluation of MgO Additions and Struvite Precipitation Protocol for Potential Expansion

The ETF ammonia tolerant grout waste form was developed by the Vitreous State Laboratory (VSL) to stabilize ammonium and thereby prevent emission of ammonia vapor during solidification of an ammonium-rich, concentrated sulfate aqueous waste stream generated at the Hanford Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). VSL did not observe expansion in samples prepared during the waste form development work. However, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) personnel did encounter expansion, in some cases up to 20+ volume percent expansion in ETF grout samples while preforming work scope to evaluate compositional ranges for ETF brine and of the precipitation and solidification reagent. The work requests can be found in Washington River Protection Services (WRPS) Statement of Work (SOW), Requisitions #: 339922 Revisions 0 and 1, March 11, 2021, and November 2021. Additional evaluation was requested by WRPS SOW Requisitions #: 356730, Revision 1, February 1, 2022, to determine whether differences in the slags or differences in sample preparation protocols used by VSL and SRNL were the cause of the expansion observed in the SRNL samples. G. Chen, WRPS, arranged a materials exchange between VSL and SRNL and coordinated the VSL protocol for grouting and curing 1L of Base Case ETF simulant. Materials were exchanged between VSL and SRNL and both laboratories performed the VSL struvite precipitation-solidification protocol and cured samples for at least 28 days. VSL and SRNL encountered expansion, at varying degrees, in all samples prepared under the material exchange and grouting protocol. Additional material exchange testing between VSL and SRNL and alternative materials evaluation to further investigate the causes of grout expansion and differentiate the effects of various dry materials, grouting procedures, and curing containers was requested by WRPS SOW Requisitions #: 356730, Revision 2, January 10, 2023. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) assembled and distributed materials to both laboratories for testing. Observations from this study indicated variations in MgO additions, water-to-dry mix (dm) ratios and curing containers did not correlate to ETF ammonia grout expansion. In comparison to previous work, SRNL observed the addition rate of NaOH to be a potential factor for the final pH in the struvite precipitation step. In the current testing NaOH was added in bulk (5-10 mL at one time) during the precipitation step. The resulting pH was 7.57-9.15 which is slightly higher than pH observed at a slower addition rate. Additional testing is needed to identify the presence and/or struvite stability in high-pH struvite precipitant ETF ammonia grout samples. Therefore, based on current data, it is unknown if NaOH addition rate is the fundamental cause of grout expansion.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Data Analytics and Visualization of Energy Systems for Critical Infrastructure Insights

Modernization of energy systems including transportation facilities provides opportunities for increased efficiency, expansion of commerce and meeting industry and federal goals. A significant increase in electrical demand is projected to meet these needs, which concentrates at facilities such as airports. For example, Xcel Energy working with two airports in their service area recently published information projecting an up to fivefold increase in electricity demand in the next 25 years [1]. Concurrently, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently surveyed 30 commercial service airports identifying more than 300 outages of more than 5 minutes between 2015 and 2022 [2]. Power, reliability, and resilience planning becomes more important to safely maintain operations and the flow of commerce with fewer energy carriers providing necessary energy to safely move passengers and goods. NREL proposes to develop methodologies to allow owners, utilities, and federal agencies to dynamically analyze, forecast, and manage energy loads at airports, focused upon maintaining the flow of commerce in an efficient, sustainable, and resilient way. To address these energy challenges, a suite of technologies and methodologies can be leveraged to validate concepts, inform design, de-risk solutions and optimize energy management during deployment. These technologies include digitalization of energy systems, microgrid methodologies, and related energy technologies for building and vehicle loads. [1] Electrifying Airport Ecosystems - https://www.enterprisemobility.com/content/dam/enterpriseholdings/marketing/innovation-in-mobility/vehicle-innovation/airport-electrification-study-full-report-2024.pdf [2] Airport Infrastructure: Selected Airport's Efforts to Enhance Electrical Resilience https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105203.

critcal infrastructure↗

Status memorandum on ORNL support of vendor irradiation capsule design and ASME irradiation code development and new ASTM test standard development activities

This report is in submission of completion of the Level 4 milestone number M4TG-24OR0501111 within the larger Advanced Reactor Technologies Gas Cooled Reactor program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The focus of this year’s efforts is to continue support of industry needs related to the development of future industry-funded irradiation programs. At ORNL these efforts included the development of a generalized three-dimensional CAD model of an irradiation creep capsules for graphite, cost estimates of the expansion of the Materials Irradiation Facility (MIF), involvement with ASTM D02.F0 “Manufactured Carbon and Graphite Products” and the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, and publication of papers supporting these efforts. This report will document the status of these activities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Redshift drift cosmography with ELT and SKAO measurements

ABSTRACT Mapping the expansion history of the universe is a compelling task of physical cosmology, especially in the context of the observational evidence for the recent acceleration of the universe, which demonstrates that canonical theories of cosmology and particle physics are incomplete and that there is new physics still to be discovered. Cosmography is a phenomenological approach to cosmology, where (with some caveats) physical quantities are expanded as a Taylor series in the cosmological redshift z, or analogous parameters such as the rescaled redshift y = z/(1 + z) or the logarithmic redshift x = ln (1 + z). Moreover, the redshift drift of objects following cosmological expansion provides a model-independent observable, detectable by facilities currently under construction, viz. the Extremely Large Telescope and the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (at least in its full configuration). Here, we use simulated redshift drift measurements from the two facilities to carry out an assessment of the cosmological impact and model discriminating power of redshift drift cosmography. We find that the combination of measurements from the two facilities can provide a stringent test of the Λ cold dark matter paradigm, and that overall the logarithmic-based expansions of the spectroscopic velocity drift are the most reliable ones, performing better than analogous expansions in the redshift or the rescaled redshift: the former nominally gives the smaller error bars for the cosmographic coefficients but is vulnerable to biases in the higher order terms (in other words, it is only reliable at low redshifts), while the latter always performs poorly.

Rocha, B. A. R.↗

Development of risk mitigation guidance for sensor placement inside mechanically ventilated enclosures – Phase 1

Guidance on Sensor Placement was identified as the top research priority for hydrogen sensors at the 2018 HySafe Research Priority Workshop on hydrogen safety in the category Mitigation, Sensors, Hazard Prevention, and Risk Reduction. This paper discusses the initial steps (Phase 1) to develop such guidance for mechanically ventilated enclosures. This work was initiated as an international collaborative effort to respond to emerging market needs related to the design and deployment equipment for hydrogen infrastructure that is often installed in individual equipment cabinets or ventilated enclosures. The ultimate objective of this effort is to develop guidance for an optimal sensor placement such that, when integrated into a facility design and operation, will allow earlier detection at lower levels of incipient leaks, leading to significant hazard reduction. Reliable and consistent early warning of hydrogen leaks will allow for the risk mitigation by reducing or even eliminating the probability of escalation of small leaks into large and uncontrolled events. To address this issue, a study of a real-world mechanically ventilated enclosure containing GH2 equipment was conducted, where CFD modeling of the hydrogen dispersion (performed by AVT and UQTR, and independently by the JRC) was validated by the NREL Sensor laboratory using a Hydrogen Wide Area Monitor (HyWAM) consisting of a 10-point gas and temperature measurement analyzer. In the release test, helium was used as a hydrogen surrogate. Expansion of indoor releases to other larger facilities (including parking structures, vehicle maintenance facilities and potentially tunnels) and incorporation into QRA tools, such as HyRAM is planned for Phase 2. It is anticipated that results of this work will be used to inform national and international standards such as NFPA 2 Hydrogen Technologies Code, Canadian Hydrogen Installation Code (CHIC) and relevant ISO/TC 197 and CEN documents.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Estimated capital costs of fish exclusion technologies for hydropower facilities

Hydropower is a reliable source of renewable energy, and its future expansion is likely to be in the form of either smaller new stream development (NSD) projects or powering existing non-powered dams. Thresholds for entrainment risk to fish and the requirements for fish exclusion at hydropower facilities often differ depending on the species involved, the characteristics of the facility, and the goals of stakeholders, but little quantitative information is present within the literature regarding the specific costs of fish exclusion measures. Cost data associated with protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) measures related to positive barrier screening were identified using keyword searches of an existing environmental mitigation cost data set and manual extraction from regulatory licensing documents available in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) eLibrary. This approach yielded a total of 50 p.m.&E mitigation measures with estimated capital construction costs pertaining to positive barrier screens and represented <10% of the 171 total FERC project dockets available in the data set. These data were highly skewed toward conventional relicensing projects, as <7% were associated with NSD projects. Results indicate highly variable costs are associated with fish screening, with flow-normalized costs one to two orders of magnitude higher for screening with the highest exclusion capability (≤0.09 in. spacing) compared with coarser screening (1–2 in.). These data provide an initial baseline for estimating exclusion costs for hydropower development and may help developers consider options for more fish-friendly generation technologies, though gaps remain relating to a lack of data, particularly for NSD projects.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

An Unconventional Dark Radical Chemistry in Dense Molecular Clouds: Directed Gas-Phase Formation of Naphthyl Radicals

The synthetic pathways to aromatic molecules inside photon-shielded dense molecular clouds remain a fundamental, unsolved enigma in astrochemistry and astrophysics, with low-temperature molecular growth routes involving aromatic radicals, such as prototype bicyclic naphthyl (C 10 H 7 • ), implicated as key sources. Here, exploiting crossed molecular beam experiments augmented by electronic structure calculations, unexpected pathways are exposed leading to the gas-phase formation of 1- and 2-naphthyl via barrierless bimolecular reactions of atomic carbon (C) with indene (C 9 H 8 ) and of dicarbon (C 2 ) with styrene (C 8 H 8 ) accompanied by ring expansion and cyclization together with aromatization. These facile routes challenge conventional wisdom that aromatic radicals are formed in deep space solely via “bright” gas-phase photochemistry of their closed-shell polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) precursors. A hitherto disregarded “dark” aromatic radical chemistry with aromatic radicals synthesized via gas-phase reactions offers new concepts on the chemical evolution of the chemistry of dark molecular clouds eventually culminating in the rapid formation of aromatics, fullerenes, and carbonaceous nanostructures.

Aromatic compounds↗

Experimental Validation of a High-Temperature Test Facility for Future Additive Manufactured Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbine Testing

For next-generation power plants to achieve high cycle efficiencies consistent with the Department of Energy's 65% efficiency target, turbomachinery capable of operating within high-temperature power cycles must be demonstrated. Pairing additively manufactured superalloy turbines with the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycle could enable turbine inlet temperatures approaching 1300 °C while providing flexibility in turbine cooling strategies. Development of test facilities to characterize and validate such systems is crucial. In this study, a turbine test facility capable of achieving inlet conditions of 800 °C, 11 MPa, and 0.43 kg/s while accommodating complex auxiliary cooling flow requirements has been designed and constructed to support future testing of a Haynes 282 additively manufactured 30 kW turbine-generator system with advanced cooling channels. This facility enables characterization of aerodynamic performance, leakage, and windage losses. Details of the facility's construction and operation are presented, along with experimental validation tests using an orifice as an expansion device in place of the turbine. These tests confirm that the facility can reach the required conditions, distinguish regions of achievable steady and pseudo-steady conditions, and identify the heater power required for each point in the upcoming turbine campaign. The campaign confirmed that ISO 5167-2 can reliably predict orifice mass flow rates in extreme supercritical carbon dioxide conditions with deviations of 0.5–7.5%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Rise of US Photovoltaics: An Exploration of Land Use Density Trends in Large‐Scale Solar Facility Attributes, 2012–2021

An energy transition is underway in the United States; renewable energy generation is now on par with coal and nuclear generation. The number of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities increased approximately tenfold between 2012 and 2021, with an associated 25-fold increase in cumulative installed capacity. With ambitious decarbonization and renewable energy deployment goals at both the federal and state levels, deployments of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities will continue apace. This growth is likely to be complex with ripples of impacts felt throughout different aspects of society, and thus accurate solar land use metrics allowing more accurate predictions are of value to policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders in the future photovoltaic build-out. In this paper, we leverage data from the newly released US Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database to examine recent trends in large-scale solar photovoltaic land use. We analyze the relationships between solar array capacity density (W/acre) and a range of facility attributes to better understand the future land requirements of solar capacity expansion over the coming years. Installed capacity was the single strongest determinant of solar array area. However, we found substantial variation in capacity density across facility attributes, including mount type, latitude, urbanicity, time, and prior land use.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Environmental Impact Assessment of Lithium Recovery from Geothermal Brines in the SS-KGRA: An Overview

There is increasing interest in securing a reliable, domestic source of lithium in the United States to support an electrified grid and energy secure future. The Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area (SS-KGRA) has garnered attention for this purpose due to the abundance of lithium in brines brought to the surface for geothermal energy production in this region. Geothermal production from this field is already expected to grow from the current 400 MWe to 920 MWe in the next 3-4 years with a potential total geothermal capacity in the region estimated at nearly 2,950 MWe. With this growth, there is potential for construction and operation of new direct lithium recovery and processing facilities to meet domestic demands for lithium. In this work, we estimate the potential impact of geothermal expansion and lithium extraction in the SS-KGRA on water use, direct air emissions from facilities, and solid waste production and management.

Busse, MM↗

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗