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At least 37 records · Page 2

Forecasting fluid-injection induced seismicity to choose the best injection strategy for safety and efficiency

Induced seismicity poses a challenge to the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Improving monitoring and forecasting techniques is essential to mitigate induced seismicity and thereby fostering a positive perception of EGS projects among local authorities and population. Induced seismicity is the result of complex and coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical mechanisms. Injection flux and pressure are crucial controlling parameters for both hydraulic stimulation and circulation protocols. We develop a methodology combining a hydro-mechanical model with a seismicity rate model to estimate the magnitude and frequency of mainshocks and aftershocks induced by fluid injection. We apply the methodology to the case of the Basel EGS (2006, Switzerland) to compare the effects of progressive, cyclic and constant injections on the mechanical response of discrete faults. Results from the coupled hydro-mechanical models show that the pore pressure diffusion and consequent enhancement of fault permeability are limited to the vicinity of the injection well during cyclic injection. Additionally, constant injection induces seismicity from the start of the injection but enhances the permeability of most of the faults within a shorter duration, inducing less post-injection seismicity. The methodology can be adapted to any numerical model and allows new projects to be developed by anticipating the safest injection protocol. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems’.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Transient Stability Study of IEEE 2800-2022 Standard Negative-Sequence-Current Compliant GFM IBRs

The primary function of grid-forming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBRs) is to maintain voltage and fre- quency/phase angle stability; however, during unbalanced grid faults, IEEE Std. 2800-2022 requires IBRs to inject both positive- and negative-sequence reactive current. Enforcing compliance with this standard could compromise the stability of GFM IBRs under such fault conditions. This paper presents a preliminary transient stability study focused on the power angle stability of GFM IBRs operating in compliance with IEEE Std. 2800 during unbalanced faults. The goal is to assess potential stability issues associated with the standard's current injection requirements under fault ride-through conditions. The results show that injecting positive-sequence current with d-axis priority during unbalanced faults better preserves the power angle stability than the q-axis priority while still enabling negative-sequence current injection. These findings suggest that, to ensure stability, GFM IBRs might need to partially comply with IEEE Std. 2800 by prioritizing positive-sequence current injection along the d-axis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Phase II Field Demonstration at Lansing Smith Generating Plant, Southport, Florida (Final Report)

The Final Technical Report: Field Test Design and Pressure Management Strategies for Phase II Field Demonstration of Optimal Pressure Control, Plume Management, and Produced Water Strategies presents the culmination of multi-year efforts under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Brine Extraction and Storage Test (BEST) program, led by EPRI in partnership with Gulf Power at the Plant Smith site near Panama City, Florida. The project was designed to evaluate and demonstrate the technical feasibility of managing subsurface pressures and fluid movement associated with large-scale CO₂ injection, using low-salinity water as a proxy fluid. Through a combination of field injection testing, reservoir modeling, and optimization studies, the research team developed and refined active and passive brine extraction strategies aimed at controlling injection-induced pressure buildup, mitigating risks of fault activation, and managing plume migration. The field demonstration incorporated a new injection well (TIW-2), a new monitoring/extraction well (TEMW-A), and an existing well (TIW-1) repurposed for passive pressure relief. Complementary geophysical monitoring was designed to track plume development and evaluate the effectiveness of pressure management strategies. The report details the integrated workflow encompassing wellfield development, regulatory permitting, model calibration, and survey design. It includes a comprehensive electromagnetic (EM) modeling and inversion study used to develop a cost-effective, time-lapse geophysical monitoring plan capable of imaging the evolving low-salinity plume within the highly saline Lower Tuscaloosa formation. Reservoir simulation results guided the design of the 17-month injection program and the timing of active extraction to maintain formation pressures below a hypothetical fault reactivation threshold. Supporting analyses evaluated potential injectivity risks related to clay fines migration and geochemical incompatibility, identifying practical mitigation measures such as salinity and pH control. The final design recommends a series of crosswell EM surveys—conducted before, during, and after injection—as the most effective and economical approach for plume imaging, supplemented by continuous downhole pressure and flow monitoring. Collectively, the study provides a field-ready framework for cost-effective pressure management and monitoring in support of future CO₂ storage projects.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT

Unsupervised Clustering of Microseismic Events and Focal Mechanism Analysis at the CO 2 Injection Site in Decatur, Illinois

Characterization of induced microseismicity at a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage site is critical for preserving reservoir integrity and mitigating seismic hazards. We apply a multilevel machine learning (ML) approach that combines the nonnegative matrix factorization and hidden Markov model to extract spectral representations of microseismic events and cluster them to identify seismic patterns at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. Unlike traditional waveform correlation methods, this approach leverages spectral characteristics of first arrivals to improve event classification and detect previously undetected planes of weakness. By integrating ML-based clustering with focal mechanism analysis, we resolve small-scale fault structures that are below the detection limits of conventional seismic imaging. Our findings reveal temporal bursts of microseismicity associated with brittle failure, providing insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of fault reactivation during CO 2 injection. This approach enhances seismic monitoring capabilities at CO 2 injection sites by improving fault characterization beyond the resolution of standard geophysical surveys.

Willis, Rachel Marie [Sandia National Laboratories

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria

Abstract The large‐scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr‐Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam‐Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO 2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro‐plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO 2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.

Cao, M. [Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berk

Impact of Inverter-Based Resources on Grid Protection: A Review of Negative-Sequence Current Generation

The increasing integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) in power grids poses challenges to traditional protection systems, primarily due to their different fault current signatures compared to conventional synchronous generators. Unlike synchronous generators whose fault response is dictated by their physical design, IBRs exhibit a wide range of fault characteristics due to manufacturer-specific control algorithms and settings. This dependence on proprietary control schemes makes modeling IBR behavior during faults significantly more complex, especially considering the rapid evolution of inverter technology and the diverse control strategies employed. While much research has focused on the positive-sequence current injections of IBRs during symmetrical faults, the understanding of negative-sequence current generation during non-symmetrical faults remains limited. This report provides an overview of current research on IBRs' negative-sequence current generation during unbalanced faults and its impact on protection schemes based on negative-sequence components. It covers both type III wind turbines and full-size converter-based IBRs. Additionally, this report reviews strategies for grid-forming controlled inverters to generate negative-sequence current during unbalanced faults, in addition to grid-following controlled ones.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Seismic Elastic Double-Beam Characterization of Faults and Fractures for CO₂ Storage Site Selection

Site characterization for underground injection and storage of gigatonne-scale CO₂ requires reliable and cost-effective methods to detect and characterize faults and fractures and to assess their stress state and fault activation potential. This is critical, as wastewater injection and disposal have been shown to activate faults and induce earthquakes, and CO₂ leakage remains a key concern for long-term storage. In this project, we developed seismic methods to detect and characterize large-scale sedimentary and crystalline basement faults and associated small-scale fractures below conventional seismic imaging resolution using multicomponent (9C) surface seismic data. Machine learning was used to automatically interpret large-scale faults, providing key information for estimating the maximum magnitude of potential induced earthquakes. High-fidelity imaging was achieved by exploiting redundancy across multiple elastic wave modes, where independent images from different modes and frequencies cross-validate each other. We also used our nonlinear signal comparison (NLSC) method for ground roll removal, improving data quality in complex near-surface conditions. The methods were validated using field data acquired in central Montana. Results show that basement faults extend into the sedimentary section and that small-scale fractures are widespread above the basement. The inferred stress orientation is consistent with regional stress data, and the estimated maximum induced earthquake magnitude is small (Mw ~2.3). The developed workflow provides a practical approach for fault and fracture characterization and for assessing induced seismicity and leakage risk. It is directly applicable to CO₂ storage site selection and to other subsurface systems.

02 PETROLEUM

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING

A Boundary Element Model for Assessing Large‐Scale Pressurization in Faulted Geological Storage Systems

Assessing large-scale pressurization at the regional scale—a possible outcome of large subsurface storage applications such as wastewater injection and geological carbon sequestration—presents significant computational challenges. These challenges are particularly pronounced when accounting for complex geologic structures with multiple reservoir and caprock layers, fault zones, and wells. This study introduces a computationally efficient model that integrates single-phase semi-analytical solutions with a boundary element (BE) approach. The model simulates pressure propagation in multilayered 3D systems, including vertical faults, caprock, basement, and confining units. We apply this new model to a representative scenario involving CO 2 injection near a partially sealing fault with verification against an independent two-phase flow model. Results demonstrate that our model accurately captures far-field pressure responses and that, outside the CO 2 plume zone, pressure predictions from single-phase and two-phase models are nearly identical. This supports the use of single-phase models like ours for efficient estimation of far-field pressure changes. Additionally, we demonstrate its effectiveness at a large scale, incorporating multiple wells and faults. With its ability to represent multiple wells, fault zones, and geological heterogeneity, our model is well suited for assessments of basin-scale pressurization. Its computational efficiency also makes it a promising tool for integration with optimization frameworks aimed at designing and managing injection strategies in faulted storage systems.

Cihan, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (

Induced seismicity and geothermal energy production in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, California

We analyze the relationship between geothermal energy production and seismic hazards in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) between 1972 and 2022. A clear increase in seismic activity accompanies geothermal energy production and is greatest to the east of the Brawley fault, where the amount of injection exceeds the amount of production. We estimate that, whereas there was a 2% chance of a M6.07 earthquake nucleating inside the SSGF within a fifty-year period prior to energy production (pre-production), there is an equal probability that a M6.70 earthquake nucleates there in a fifty-year period during which historically average energy production conditions persist (syn-production). Similarly, we estimate a 2% chance of a M7.15 and M6.92 occurring in the broader Brawley Seismic Zone (excluding the SSGF) within a fifty-year period during the pre- and syn-production eras, respectively. We find that linear regression models fail to reliably forecast the background seismicity rate as a function of fluid production and injection.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Grid-Forming Inverters for Stability Improvements in Bulk Power Systems with High Inverter-Based Resources Penetration

The grid-forming inverter (GFM) has been considered recently as a means to enhance grid stability in areas with Inverter-based Resources (IBRs) concentration. This paper assesses the potential improvements the GFM can bring to Bulk-power Systems (BPS) through two distinct studies. The first study was conducted on West Texas in ERCOT with presence of more than 35GW of IBRs, the Grid-Following (GFL) batteries were replaced with GFM batteries. The results demonstrate that the GFM significantly improved the voltage profile and active power injection during and after a fault. The second study focused on a local area within ERCOT grid. In this case, a battery operating as GFL within the local study area was replaced with a GFM battery. The findings clearly illustrate that GFM can strengthen the area and allow a higher IBRs power generation and a higher power export from the local study area.

Quedan, Amro

Fault Slip and Fluid Flow: Seismic Source Analysis to Assess Role of Multiple Slip Patches in Fault Permeability

The relationship between fault reactivation, microearthquakes (MEQs), and permeability evolution during fluid injection plays a critical role in energy harvesting and waste disposal. Recent studies have demonstrated the possibility of predicting fault permeability using cumulative seismic moments of MEQs quantitatively. To understand the underlying physical processes, we conduct fault reactivation experiments using Utah FORGE granitoid and analyze acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during stepwise increases in fluid injection pressure. Frequency analysis of thousands of calibrated AE signals reveals that fault reactivation produces multiple AE source patches with millimeter-scale radii—smaller than the sample fault radius. The cumulative area of the reactivated patches covers the fault multiple times over (∼10x–50x area) for each pressure step. These findings provide mechanistic insight that measured permeability enhancement is not driven by a single large slip event, but by the sequential and interacting activation of multiple slip patches that create a continuous flow pathway.

Nurshal, M. E. M. [Pennsylvania State University,

Assessing Seismic Risk for CO2 Geologic Storage: Comparative Analysis of the Delaware Basin and Basin and Range Province Projects

ABSTRACT: Effective management of induced seismicity is critical for safe and sustainable CO2 storage. This study evaluates fault slippage risks in the Delaware Basin (Texas) and Basin and Range Province (Utah), integrating geological, operational, and geomechanical parameters to assess fault stability and seismic hazard mitigation. In the Delaware Basin, two sites were analyzed under an injection rate of 20,000 bbl/day over 25 years. One site showed low fault slip risk, while the other exhibited higher reactivation potential due to proximity to critically stressed faults. Sensitivity analysis revealed that increased pore pressure significantly heightened slip potential, highlighting the necessity of precise pressure control and real-time monitoring. In the Basin and Range Province, fault stability was evaluated at Neck of the Desert, Escalante Desert, Parowan, and Beaver sites under injection rates of 8,750 bbl/day per site over 30 years. Minimal fault slip risk was observed at Neck of the Desert and Escalante Desert sites, whereas Parowan and Beaver sites exhibited elevated slip potential due to semi-critically stressed faults sensitive to modest pore pressure increases. The findings demonstrate that fault slippage analysis, combined with sensitivity analysis of pore pressure and friction coefficients, is essential for understanding seismic risks. Continuous monitoring, adaptive injection management, and rigorous geomechanical analysis are key strategies for minimizing induced seismicity in CO2 sequestration projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES

DeFault: DEep‐Learning‐Based FAULT Delineation Using the IBDP Passive Seismic Data at the Decatur CO2 Storage Site

Abstract The carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) framework is an essential component in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with its success hinging on the comprehensive knowledge of subsurface geology and geomechanics. Passive seismic event relocation and fault detection offer vital insights into subsurface structures and the ability to monitor fluid migration pathways. Accurate identification and localization of seismic events, however, face significant challenges, including the necessity for high‐quality seismic data and advanced computational methods. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel deep learning method, , specifically designed for passive seismic source relocation and fault delineating for passive seismic monitoring projects. By leveraging data domain‐adaptation, allows us to train a neural network with labeled synthetic data and apply it directly to field data. Using , the passive seismic sources are automatically clustered based on their recording time and spatial locations, and subsequently, faults and fractures are delineated accordingly. We demonstrate the efficacy of on a field case study involving injection related microseismic data from Decatur, Illinois area. Our approach accurately and efficiently relocated passive seismic events, identified faults and could aid in potential damage induced by seismicity. Our results highlight the potential of as a valuable tool for passive seismic monitoring, emphasizing its role in ensuring CCUS project safety. This research bolsters the understanding of subsurface characterization in CCUS, illustrating machine learning’s capacity to refine these methods. Ultimately, our work has significant implications for CCUS technology deployment, an essential strategy in combating climate change. Plain Language Summary In our quest to tackle climate change, we use a strategy known as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to keep greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. This strategy relies heavily on our ability to understand what's happening deep under the earth's surface. To make sure we store super critical safely, we need to accurately map out the geological structure, especially faults, but this is tough without high‐quality data and complex computer programs. We've developed a new tool called “DeFault,” which uses advanced machine learning to improve how we find and map these underground features. “DeFault” is smart enough to learn from numerically simulated data and then apply what it’s learned to real‐world situations. It groups together seismic activity—tiny tremors and shifts in the earth—based on when and where they happen, which helps us spot where there might be cracks or faults. We tested “DeFault” in Illinois, where CO 2 is injected underground, and it successfully pinpointed where these tremors occurred and mapped out the faults, helping to prevent accidents accurately in the future. Our study shows that “DeFault” will be a powerful ally in making CCUS safer and more effective, especially for the Illinois Basin Decatur Project. Key Points Faults and fractures introduced by carbon storage can be monitored by passive seismicity DeFault algorithm enables an automatic process for accurate and efficient passive seismic event locating and clustering

58 GEOSCIENCES

Searching for Grid-Forming Technologies That Do Not Impact Protection Systems: A promising technology

The design of legacy-line protection elements has been guided by the behavior of synchronous machines during faults. Because of the significant field-winding inductance and rotating mass, the magnitude, angular frequency, and phase angle of the back-electromotive force (EMF) voltage waveforms of synchronous machines remain practically constant for several hundreds of milliseconds after a fault occurs. Furthermore this has facilitated the engineering of the memory-polarization technique in mho distance elements, which has been effective for machine-dominant power grids. However, this assumption is no longer held for inverter-based resources (IBRs) because of the lack of field winding and moment of inertia in power electronics devices. Notably, the negative-sequence directional overcurrent protection and the quadrilateral distance elements have been impacted by early IBRs with grid-following (GFL) controls because they did not inject negative-sequence currents during asymmetrical faults.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Enabling Grid-Forming Control with Fault Ride-Through in Unbalanced Distribution Networks

Distribution networks are often unbalanced, causing oscillatory responses in inverter control designed for balanced conditions. Here, to address this problem, this paper proposes a novel time-domain transformation appropriate for inverter control and enables the decomposition of three-phase unbalanced signals into constant positive and negative components. Relations useful for calculating unbalanced active and reactive power are derived from first principle, providing insight into vector products of unbalanced three-phase signals. Furthermore, a grid-forming control effective under unbalanced conditions is developed, which delivers superior performance while meeting UNIFI1 specifications for grid-forming control under unbalanced conditions. specifications applicable to category 4 inverter-based resource, like setting and regulating frequency/voltage, providing voltage support, sharing active power, injecting negative sequence current, and riding through faults. A current limiter is proposed for safe fault ride-through and integrates with the grid-forming control featuring frequency/voltage droop controllers and current and voltage control loops. The transformation of interconnected inverters is formulated and stability of the proposed control analyzed to support robust parameter selections. The effectiveness of the proposed transformation and grid-forming control is demonstrated through analytical results and real-time simulation of a IEEE 123 distribution network on the Real-Time Digital Simulator. Comparison with existing methods shows that the proposed strategy satisfies the UNIFI specifications with a much better performance.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

DOE 10658 Project Sensitivity-Driven Wide Area Protection (SWAP) Coordination Tools for IBRs

Utilities have seen a rapid increase in solar, wind, and battery energy storage systems that interconnect to their electric system through inverters. Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) have fault current characteristics that are unlike the fault current response of traditional rotating-machine-based generators, which is well-known and repeatable. IBR’s non-traditional fault current behavior is due to the IBR control scheme, which is configured to provide a clean AC output but also protects the inverter’s sensitive power electronics devices from damage from conditions such as overcurrent. This results in a low fault current magnitude, low or no negative sequence current injection, the variability of sequence component currents, the variability of voltage with respect to current angles, and the lack of inertia. The control scheme also results in a fault current response that can vary between manufacturers and between models of the same manufacturer. High penetration of IBRs can adversely affect the protection schemes applied in areas with high penetration of IBRs. With the proliferation of IBRs, utilities are finding out that conventional protection schemes are not adequately equipped to protect the electric systems. This is mainly because the existing protection elements and practices have been designed based on the fault current response of conventional rotating machines. In several cases, the available literature does not provide any clear solution for the issues when the protection scheme does not operate properly near IBRs. This report identifies various protection challenges due to IBRs that industry is facing, from the utility perspective. Instead of focusing on one issue, this report looks broadly at all the challenges that system protection has experienced with high penetration of IBRs. Based on the IBR response from various utilities during real fault events and gathering perspectives from different utility SMEs via questionnaire, the report summarizes the gathered data and internal experiences.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Utilities Perspective on Protection Challenges with High IBR Penetration

Utilities have seen rapid increase in Solar, Wind, and Battery Energy Storage Resources that interconnect to their electric system through Inverters. Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) have fault current characteristics that are unlike the fault current response of traditional rotating-machine-based generators, which is well known and repeatable. IBR’s non-traditional fault current behavior is due to the IBR control scheme, which is configured to provide a clean AC output but also protect the inverter’s sensitive power electronics devices from damage, one source of which is overcurrent. This results in low fault current magnitude, low or no negative sequence current injection, the variability of sequence component currents, the variability of voltage with respect to current angles, and the lack of inertia. The control scheme also results in a fault current response that can vary between manufactures and between models of the same manufacturer. High penetration of IBRs can adversely affect the protection schemes applied in areas with high penetration of IBRs. With the proliferation of IBRs, utilities are finding out that conventional protection schemes are not adequately equipped to protect the electric systems. This is mainly because the existing protection elements and practices have been designed based on the fault current response of conventional rotating machines. In several cases, the available literature does not provide any clear solution for the issues when the protection scheme does not operate properly near IBRs. This presentation identifies various protection challenges due to IBRs that industry is facing, from the utility perspective. Instead of facing on one issue, we are looking broadly on all the challenges that system protection has experienced with high penetration of IBRs. Based on the IBR response from various utilities during real fault events and gathering perspective from different utility SMEs via questionnaire, the presentation summarizes on gathered data and internal experiences.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION