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DOE OSTI2025

Distribution Feeder Characteristics and Their Resiliency to Natural Hazards

This paper introduces a method and approach for initially screening actions to improve the reliability of distribution systems exposed to three natural hazards (wildlife, weather, and vegetation). The method is well-suited to needs and capabilities of smaller utilities because it relies on readily available information and does not depend on simulations involving detailed engineering models. The method involves first aggregating feeders into like types and then correlating them, separately by hazard, to standard measures of reliability, namely, System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) and System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI), and the individual constituents of these measures. The correlations provide both new insights into the efficacy of accepted reliability management practices while and re-confirm long-understood, accepted practices. Importantly, the method does not seek to replace the need for detailed engineering analysis. Instead, in view of the significant costs involved in conducting these more involved analyses, the method is intended to help smaller utilities prioritize their more limited resources to maximize the efficacy of actions they take to improve reliability.

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DOE OSTI2025

Energy Scheduling-based Operating Envelopes including a Distribution System Branch Screening Algorithm

This paper presents an energy scheduling-based formulation for computing operating envelopes including a distribution branch screening algorithm, termed DBS-ES. The contribution of the paper is two-fold: firstly, it presents an innovative methodology for calculating operating envelopes using energy scheduling (baseline), and secondly, it enhances this methodology by incorporating a custom distribution branch screening algorithm (DBS-ES). The custom algorithm leverages power system knowledge to reduce both model build time and total processing time while maintaining the same scheduling results as the baseline. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through experiments on the IEEE13, IEEE123, and EPRI Secondary test feeders. Results highlight a 24.5% decrease in model build time and an 8.17% decrease in total processing time when using DBS-ES compared to the baseline, specifically for the IEEE123 test feeder. Additionally, the paper briefly discusses the influence of utility-controlled storage on computing operating envelopes, noting a general incre

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DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing the Survivability of Power Systems With Grid-Edge DERs Against DoS Attacks

Power system survivability, defined as the ability of a system to maintain steady-state functionality under varying operational conditions, reflects its resilience against disturbances. While existing research primarily focuses on physical-layer disturbances, the increasing prevalence of grid-edge DERs, which are primarily used for integrating renewable energy, has significantly expanded the cyber attack surface. As a result, operational disruptions caused by cyber threats are posing significant challenges to system survivability and cannot be overlooked. To fill this gap, we redefine system survivability to incorporate the cyber layer’s status and propose a Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) approach to enhance power system survivability against potential cyber-physical threats. In this paper, we first analyze the operational guidelines of systems with a high penetration of DERs under various cyber network conditions and redefine survivability in this context. Next, we focus on the most common cyber threat, Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks, and develop a corresponding attack model. This model allows for the creation of a kernel-based ambiguity set that captures attack uncertainties using historical data. Finally, we transform the proposed DRO model as a tractable optimization problem, with its solution providing an optimal cyber redundancy plan to enhance system survivability in DoS attack scenarios. Simulation results on the IEEE 13-node and 123-node test feeders demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model in improving system survivability. This model can also be expanded to include other types of common attacks and serve as a comprehensive planning tool to improve overall cyber physical survival of the system.

cybersecurity↗

DOE OSTI2024

Linear Solvers for Collector Systems of Generalized Large-scale Inverter-Based Resources

Collector systems for inverter-based resources (IBRs) are typically represented by equivalent circuits for electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations. Recent studies have revealed that modeling a detailed collector system is essential to accurately represent the behavior of IBRs, especially when dealing with partial tripping during external disturbances. However, there are several challenges in simulating a detailed EMT model of a collector system due to the time required to simulate such systems. Thus, this paper investigates the modeling of a detailed collector system, taking into account its configuration and components as defined in IEEE standard 2800. The configurations include the collector systems of generalized large-scale IBR plants. The components include the main IBR transformer, collector bus, and feeders with lines and/or cables. The EMT model of the collector system is represented by differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that are discretized to form linear equations that are solved using linear solvers. In this paper, linear solvers are proposed based on the Schur complement method, which are utilized for simulation of the EMT model of collector systems of generalized large-scale IBRs to accelerate simulation speed while maintaining the accuracy of the results. The proposed solvers are verified by comparing the performance to that of linear solvers provided in MATLAB.

Choi, Jongchan↗

NASA NTRS1994

Future ultra-speed tube-flight

Future long-link, ultra-speed, surface transport systems will require electromagnetically (EM) driven and restrained vehicles operating under reduced-atmosphere in very straight tubes. Such tube-flight trains will be safe, energy conservative, pollution-free, and in a protected environment. Hypersonic (and even hyperballistic) speeds are theoretically achievable. Ultimate system choices will represent tradeoffs between amoritized capital costs (ACC) and operating costs. For example, long coasting links might employ aerodynamic lift coupled with EM restraint and drag make-up. Optimized, combined EM lift, and thrust vectors could reduce energy costs but at increased ACC. (Repulsive levitation can produce lift-over-drag l/d ratios a decade greater than aerodynamic), Alternatively, vehicle-emanated, induced-mirror fields in a conducting (aluminum sheet) road bed could reduce ACC but at substantial energy costs. Ultra-speed tube flight will demand fast-acting, high-precision sensors and computerized magnetic shimming. This same control system can maintain a magnetic 'guide way' invariant in inertial space with inertial detectors imbedded in tube structures to sense and correct for earth tremors. Ultra-speed tube flight can complete with aircraft for transit time and can provide even greater passenger convenience by single-model connections with local subways and feeder lines. Although cargo transport generally will not need to be performed at ultra speeds, such speeds may well be desirable for high throughput to optimize channel costs. Thus, a large and expensive pipeline might be replaced with small EM-driven pallets at high speeds.

Salter, Robert M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Dynamic Pricing Method to Manage the Impact of EV Charging on the Grid Using RL

This work addresses the challenge of managing electrical vehicle (EV) charging loads on distribution feeders with the increase in deployment of fast charging stations. To mitigate the adverse impacts on feeder health, a novel dynamic grid-informed pricing approach is proposed. This approach leverages reinforcement learning (RL) to determine hourly charging prices based on real-time grid conditions. A synthetic environment was developed to train the reinforcement learning agent. A model of an IEEE 34-bus distribution feeder with EV charging stations has been developed in OpenDSS utilizing Caldera for realistic EV charging profiles. Test cases demonstrate that the dynamic pricing strategy achieves higher energy delivery to the EV end user at a lower cost compared to constant pricing methods, while lowering voltage deviations and congestion. This approach offers more granular price adjustments, responding dynamically to feeder conditions and potentially improving grid stability and efficiency. The communication architecture to implement this dynamic pricing method is described. This research contributes to the development of smart grid-informed charging solutions that can reduce the cost of charging to the end user while also helping the grid.

EV charging, dynamic pricing, grid-informed chargi↗

DOE OSTI2025

A dynamic pricing method to manage the impact of EV charging on the grid using RL

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NASA NTRS2011

Modeling C-Band Co-Channel Interference From AeroMACS Omni-Directional Antennas to Mobile Satellite Service Feeder Uplinks

A new C-band (5091 to 5150 MHz) airport communications system designated as Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS) is being planned under the Federal Aviation Administration s NextGen program. An interference analysis software program, Visualyse Professional (Transfinite Systems Ltd), is being utilized to provide guidelines on limitations for AeroMACS transmitters to avoid interference with other systems. A scenario consisting of a single omni-directional transmitting antenna at each of the major contiguous United States airports is modeled and the steps required to build the model are reported. The results are shown to agree very well with a previous study.

Wilson, Jeffrey D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

NASA NTRS1990

A modeling technique for STOVL ejector and volume dynamics

New models for thrust augmenting ejector performance prediction and feeder duct dynamic analysis are presented and applied to a proposed Short Take Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft configuration. Central to the analysis is the nontraditional treatment of the time-dependent volume integrals in the otherwise conventional control-volume approach. In the case of the thrust augmenting ejector, the analysis required a new relationship for transfer of kinetic energy from the primary flow to the secondary flow. Extraction of the required empirical corrections from current steady-state experimental data is discussed; a possible approach for modeling insight through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is presented.

Drummond, C. K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A modeling technique for STOVL ejector and volume dynamics

Drummond, C. K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Control Oriented Models for Co-Design: Technical Overview of MT HVDC, MVDC, and Solid State Transformer Building Blocks

The electric power system is shifting toward a power electronics–enabled grid, where converter based “building blocks” (e.g., high voltage direct current (HVDC) links, multi terminal HVDC (MT HVDC) networks, medium voltage DC (MVDC) links, and solid state transformers (SSTs)) provide fast, precise control of power flows, voltage, and frequency. This report develops and applies publicly shareable electromagnetic transient (EMT) and phasor models to examine how such building blocks can be composed and coordinated to support offshore wind integration, inter area transfers, feeder support, and resilience. Section 2 documents a modular multilevel converter (MMC)–based MT HVDC modeling framework and two use cases: a compact WSCC/IEEE 9 bus test system and a 240 bus “mini WECC” case with five offshore wind plants (OWFs). Phasor to EMT transfer, initialization, and sanity checks are summarized, and neutral demonstrations of normal and contingency operation are reported. Section 3 frames the problem of wind plant inertial frequency response (IFR): shaping energy release and recovery to improve nadir while avoiding aerodynamic stall; representative simulations illustrate the issues without disclosing proprietary control. Section 4 develops MVDC concepts through an IEEE 16 bus loop and an Olympic Peninsula case study that compares AC vs. MVDC corridors and shows how feeder headroom can be pooled via DC couplers. Section 5 surveys SST architectures and identifies a gap: scalable, communication free coordination of multiple SSTs for islanded feeder networks. Across the report, novel methods and configurations under separate publication and IP review are not disclosed; only topic oriented, replicable setups and non proprietary results are shown. These models and use cases are intended as foundations for future publications and co design studies on architecture, control, and coordination of PE enabled grids.

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DOE OSTI2024

On the Use of Tidal Power for Enhancing Power System Resilience with Networked Microgrids

The resilience of a power system to withstand a high-impact low-frequency event is a growing concern, especially in coastal communities that tend to be densely populated and very prone to extreme events such as storms and flooding. In such areas, marine renewable energy can be integrated with the existing renewable energy sources to improve generation diversity and power system resiliency. Using networked microgrids as an example, this paper proposes an empirical study to investigate the impact of marine resources, in particular, tidal energy on the power system resiliency. A set of quantitative metrics with intuitive physical interpretations is used to evaluate the resiliency of a power system that is enhanced with distributed generation in the form of rooftop photovoltaic systems and tidal generators. The effectiveness of resource diversification on the power system resiliency is demonstrated through simulations on a model of a real-world coastal distribution feeder located in Sequim, Washington.

Peerzada, Aaqib A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Factor-Coupled, Ahead-of-Time Aggregation of Power Flexibility Under Forecast Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is significantly reshaping the role of distribution systems under active energy management. To aggregate the active-reactive power flexibility of DERs dispersed at the feeder and provide capacity support to the transmission system, it is essential to efficiently identify feasible substation power injection trajectories. This paper introduces a novel ahead-of-time flexibility characterization method to address it. First, a polyhedral non-feeder-level power flexibility region (PFR) is constructed, accounting for various time-dependent, power-coupled, and forecast error uncertainties. Then, a polyhedral feeder-level PFR is analytically derived through a coordinate transformation, which can reveal the uncertainty propagation path, i.e., how uncertainty applies to the feeder-level PFR. To facilitate the high-level application, a tractable chance-constrained Chebyshev centering optimization model is further developed to find a ball-shaped inner approximation of the feeder-level PFR. Finally, the proposed method is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Here, both theoretical and experimental results show that, with appropriate robustness parameter settings, the proposed method can make the approximated PFR less conservative with abundant robustness against forecast error uncertainty.

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NASA NTRS1982

RF model of the distribution system as a communication channel, phase 2. Volume 1: Summary Report

The design, implementation, and verification of a computerized model for predicting the steady-state sinusoidal response of radial (tree) configured distribution feeders was undertaken. That work demonstrated the feasibility and validity based on verification measurements made on a limited size portion of an actual live feeder. On that basis a follow-on effort concerned with (1) extending the verification based on a greater variety of situations and network size, (2) extending the model capabilities for reverse direction propagation, (3) investigating parameter sensitivities, (4) improving transformer models, and (5) investigating procedures/fixes for ameliorating propagation trouble spots was conducted. Results are summarized.

Rustay, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

AeroMACS C-Band Interference Modeling and Simulation Results

A new C-band (5091-5150 MHz) airport communications system designated as Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS) is being planned under the Federal Aviation Administration s NextGen program. It is necessary to establish practical limits on AeroMACS transmission power from airports so that the threshold of interference into the Mobile Satellite Service (Globalstar) feeder uplinks is not exceeded. To help provide guidelines for these limits, interference models have been created with the commercial software Visualyse Professional. In this presentation, simulation results were shown for the aggregate interference power at low earth orbit from AeroMACS transmitters at each of up to 757 airports in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the surrounding area. Both omni-directional and sectoral antenna configurations were modeled. Effects of antenna height, beamwidth, and tilt were presented.

Wilson, Jeffrey↗

DOE OSTI2026

Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE): Utility Pilots

The Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE) model provides the optimal portfolio of distribution system upgrades—e.g., voltage regulators, feeder reconductoring, transformer upgrades and non-wires alternatives (NWA), such as strategic siting of storage and distributed generation—to interconnect distributed energy resources (DERs) and enable load growth. It can be used to assess grid infrastructure costs and explore policy and regulatory solutions for distribution planning and DER valuation.In 2025, Berkeley Lab conducted three pilot analyses to validate LODGE results with empirical utility data before the model’s first release in 2026. The pilots, done with utilities in Washington, Colorado, and New Mexico, provide examples that illustrate how the model works, what it can do, and the value of the analysis.

Heleno, Miguel↗