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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Transforming Agricultural Productivity with AI-Driven Forecasting: Innovations in Food Security and Supply Chain Optimization

Global food security is under significant threat from climate change, population growth, and resource scarcity. This review examines how advanced AI-driven forecasting models, including machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and time-series forecasting models like SARIMA/ARIMA, are transforming regional agricultural practices and food supply chains. Through the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and blockchain technologies, these models facilitate the real-time monitoring of crop growth, resource allocation, and market dynamics, enhancing decision making and sustainability. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, including systematic literature analysis and regional case studies. Highlights include AI-driven yield forecasting in European hydroponic systems and resource optimization in southeast Asian aquaponics, showcasing localized efficiency gains. Furthermore, AI applications in food processing, such as plasma, ozone and Pulsed Electric Field (PEF) treatments, are shown to improve food preservation and reduce spoilage. Key challenges—such as data quality, model scalability, and prediction accuracy—are discussed, particularly in the context of data-poor environments, limiting broader model applicability. The paper concludes by outlining future directions, emphasizing context-specific AI implementations, the need for public–private collaboration, and policy interventions to enhance scalability and adoption in food security contexts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Local Food Crop Production can Fulfil Demand for Less than One-Third of the Population

The distance between the origin and end-point of food supply chains, and the ‘localness’ of food systems, are key considerations of many narratives associated with sustainability. Yet, information on the minimum distance to food crops is still scarce at the global level. Using an optimization model based on ‘foodsheds’ (that is, self-sufficient areas with internal dependencies), we calculate the potential minimum distance between food production and consumption for six crop types around the world. We show that only 11–28% of the global population can fulfil their demand for specific crops within a 100-km radius, with substantial variation between different regions and crops. For 26–64% of the population, that distance is greater than 1,000 km. Even if transnational foodsheds were in place, large parts of the globe would still depend on trade to feed themselves. Although yield gap closure and food loss reductions could favour more local food systems, particularly in Africa and Asia, global supply chains would still be needed to ensure an adequate and stable food supply.

Crop production↗
NASA NTRS2021

Importance of Trade Dependencies for Agricultural Inputs: A Case Study of Finland

Approximately 80% of the world's population lives in countries that are dependent on food imports to sustain an adequate food supply. Besides these food imports, further dependencies also arise due to the requirements for agricultural inputs, including energy, fertilisers, feed and agricultural machinery. While the trade of agricultural inputs is relatively well represented in economic analysis, the quantification is often in terms of monetary values, and thus the assessments of the actual input quantities are very limited. In this paper, we develop a framework for analysis of the traded input quantities at the country-level and demonstrate its utility through an in-depth analysis of Finland's dependency on agricultural inputs. Further, we assess the importance of these inputs for domestic food production from a resilience perspective. We find that Finland, a country with relatively high food self-sufficiency but also a great dependency on imported agricultural inputs, experienced an increase in its dependency over the period 1996-2016. In case of trading partners, the story is more mixed: while trading partners for soybeans increased, those decreased in case of electricity while no significant change was observed in other commodities. In Finland, the rapeseed dependency on imports (ratio of net imports and consumption) grew from around 0% to almost 50% between the years 1987-2013. Changes for electricity remained substantially smaller, with dependency only slightly growing during the study period. Crude oil and soybean supplies are totally dependent on imports as neither is produced in Finland. Interestingly, the highest dependencies for agricultural inputs were on different countries than that for foodstuff imports. Thus, when identifying and assessing approaches to increase resilience to trade-related shocks, it is essential to understand both foodstuff and agricultural input dependencies within the global food system.

trade dependencies↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗
DOE OSTI2021

From inert gas to fertilizer, fuel and fine chemicals: N 2 reduction and fixation

The 100th anniversary of a leading nitrogen fixation technology developer like CASALE SA is a reason to reflect over the 20th century successful solution of the problem of world food supply, and to look out for solutions for sustainable developments with respect to ammonia production. Here, we review the role of nitrogen as essential chemical constituent in photosynthesis and biology, and component of ammonia as it is used as fertilizer for primary production by photosynthesis for farming and food supply and its future role as energy carrier. While novel synthesis methods and very advanced synchrotron based x-ray analytical techniques are being developed, we feel it is important to refer to the historical and economical context of nitrogen. The breaking of the N≡N triple bond remains a fundamental chemical and energetic problem in this context. We review the electrochemical ammonia synthesis as an energetically and environmentally benign method. Two relatively novel X-ray spectroscopy methods, which are relevant for the molecular understanding of the catalysts and biocatalysts, i.e. soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy and nuclear resonant vibration spectroscopy are presented. We illustrate the perceived reality in fertilizer usage on the field, and fertilizer production in the factory complex with photos and thus provide a contrast to the academic view of the molecular process of ammonia function and production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2000

Shuttle and ISS Food Systems Management

Russia and the U.S. provide the current International Space Station (ISS) food system. Each country contributes half of the food supply in their respective flight food packaging. All of the packaged flight food is stowed in Russian provided containers, which interface with the Service Module galley. Each country accepts the other's flight worthiness inspections and qualifications. Some of the food for the first ISS crew was launched to ISS inside the Service Module in July of 2000, and STS-106 in September 2000 delivered more food to the ISS. All subsequent food deliveries will be made by Progress, the Russian re-supply vehicle. The U.S. will ship their portion of food to Moscow for loading onto the Progress. Delivery schedules vary, but the goal is to maintain at least a 45-day supply onboard ISS at all times. The shelf life for ISS food must be at least one year, in order to accommodate the long delivery cycle and onboard storage. Preservation techniques utilized in the US food system include dehydration, thermo stabilization, intermediate moisture, and irradiation. Additional fresh fruits and vegetables will be sent with each Progress and Shuttle flights as permitted by volume allotments. There is limited refrigeration available on the Service Module to store fresh fruits and vegetables. Astronauts and cosmonauts eat half U.S. and half Russian food. Menu planning begins 1 year before a planned launch. The flight crews taste food in the U.S. and in Russia and rate the acceptability. A preliminary menu is planned, based on these ratings and the nutritional requirements. The preliminary menu is then evaluated by the crews while training in Russia. Inputs from this evaluation are used to finalize the menu and flight packaging is initiated. Flight food is delivered 6 weeks before launch. The current challenge for the food system is meeting the nutritional requirements, especially no more than 10 mg iron, and 3500 mg sodium. Experience from Shuttle[Mir also indicated insufficient caloric intake for many crewmembers. Additional thermostabilized and irradiated foods have been developed for ISS to improve the ease of preparation and overall acceptability. Dehydrated foods offer limited advantage, since water must be delivered to ISS. An effort is underway to introduce other International Partner's food into the ISS food system. At first this will be one or two selected foods with the potential for more as the program matures. An increase in the variety of available foods would improve the overall acceptability. Additional galley capability will be required when the crew size increases on ISS. Anticipated improvements include freezers, refrigerators and microwave ovens. All of the ISS food development efforts are devoted to improving the food acceptability and subsequent consumption and mission success

Kloeris, Vickie↗
DOE OSTI2023

The rapid change in mental health among college students after introduction of on-campus quarantine during the 2022 Shanghai COVID-19 lockdown

Objectives Among the various impacts of disasters in terms of emotions, quarantine has been proven to result in significant increases in mental health problems. Studies of psychological resilience during outbreaks of epidemics tend to focus on long-term social quarantine. In contrast, insufficient studies have been conducted examining how rapidly negative mental health outcomes occur and how these outcomes change over time. We evaluated the time course of psychological resilience (over three different phases of quarantine) among students at Shanghai Jiao Tong University to investigate the influence of unexpected changes on college students. Methods An online survey was conducted from 5 to 7 April 2022. A structured online questionnaire was administered using a retrospective cohort trial design. Before 9 March (Period 1), individuals engaged in their usual activities without restrictions. From 9 to 23 March (Period 2), the majority of students were asked to remain in their dormitories on campus. From 24 March to early April (Period 3), restrictions were relaxed, and students were gradually allowed to participate in essential activities on campus. We quantified dynamic changes in the severity of students’ depressive symptoms over the course of these three periods. The survey consisted of five sets of self-reported questions: demographic information, lifestyle/activity restrictions, a brief mental health history, COVID-19-related background, and the Beck Depression Inventory, second edition. Results A total of 274 college students aged 18–42 years (mean = 22.34; SE = 0.24) participated in the study (58.39% undergraduate students, 41.61% graduate students; 40.51% male, 59.49% female). The proportion of students with depressive symptoms was 9.1% in Period 1, 36.1% in Period 2, and 34.67% in Period 3. Depressive symptoms increased notably with the introduction of the quarantine in Periods 2 and 3. Lower satisfaction with the food supplied and a longer duration of physical exercise per day were found to be positively associated with changes in depression severity in Periods 2 and 3. Quarantine-related psychological distress was more evident in students who were in a romantic relationship than in students who were single. Conclusion Depressive symptoms in university students rapidly increased after 2 weeks of quarantine and no perceptible reversal was observed over time. Concerning students in a relationship, ways to take physical exercise and to relax should be provided and the food supplied should be improved when young people are quarantined.

Ma, Dongni↗
NASA NTRS1991

Naturally induced secondary radiation in interplanetary space: Preliminary analyses for gamma radiation and radioisotope production from thermal neutron activation

Thermal neutron activation analyses were carried out for various space systems components to determine gamma radiation dose rates and food radiation contamination levels. The space systems components selected were those for which previous radiation studies existed. These include manned space vehicle radiation shielding, liquid hydrogen propellant tanks for a Mars mission, and a food supply used as space vehicle radiation shielding. The computational method used is based on the fast neutron distribution generated by the BRYNTRN and HZETRN transport codes for Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) at solar minimum conditions and intense solar flares in space systems components. The gamma dose rates for soft tissue are calculated for water and aluminum space vehicle slab shields considering volumetric source self-attenuation and exponential buildup factors. In the case of the lunar habitat with regolith shielding, a completely exposed spherical habitat was assumed for mathematical convenience and conservative calculations. Activation analysis of the food supply used as radiation shielding is presented for four selected nutrients: potassium, calcium, sodium, and phosphorus. Radioactive isotopes that could represent a health hazard if ingested are identified and their concentrations are identified. For nutrients soluble in water, it was found that all induced radioactivity was below the accepted maximum permissible concentrations.

Plaza-Rosado, Heriberto↗
DOE OSTI2022

The future of fungi: threats and opportunities

The fungal kingdom represents an extraordinary diversity of organisms with profound impacts across animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Fungi simultaneously support life, by forming beneficial symbioses with plants and producing life-saving medicines, and bring death, by causing devastating diseases in humans, plants, and animals. With climate change, increased antimicrobial resistance, global trade, environmental degradation, and novel viruses altering the impact of fungi on health and disease, developing new approaches is now more crucial than ever to combat the threats posed by fungi and to harness their extraordinary potential for applications in human health, food supply, and environmental remediation. To address this aim, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund convened a workshop to unite leading experts on fungal biology from academia and industry to strategize innovative solutions to global challenges and fungal threats. This report provides recommendations to accelerate fungal research and highlights the major research advances and ideas discussed at the meeting pertaining to 5 major topics: (1) Connections between fungi and climate change and ways to avert climate catastrophe; (2) Fungal threats to humans and ways to mitigate them; (3) Fungal threats to agriculture and food security and approaches to ensure a robust global food supply; (4) Fungal threats to animals and approaches to avoid species collapse and extinction; and (5) Opportunities presented by the fungal kingdom, including novel medicines and enzymes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A framework and calculator for evaluating the impacts of shelf life extension and other food loss and waste reduction technologies

Optimization of the food supply chain (FSC) depends on reducing food waste, especially at the consumer stage, where a substantial portion of food is not eaten, but instead disposed of via landfill, incineration, or in-sink disposals. One key strategy is to increase the time that consumers have before food goes bad or expires. This study developed a framework to assess the efficacy of shelf-life extension (SLE) technologies for mitigating food loss and waste (FLW), such as packaging improvements. The impact flows through the entire FSC, reducing FLW, energy use, and other inputs at each stage. The framework and resulting calculator can be used to evaluate the impact of FLW reduction at any stage for any food commodity. As shown by two SLE cases, the calculator is valuable for policy-makers, government entities, and professionals, specifically those in marketing, business development, and capital projects teams, to comprehensively evaluate the impacts of FLW reduction technologies and practices. The framework and calculator are sensitive to the shape of the consumption curve, the fraction of inedible waste, and the current shelf life. The calculator was used to assess the impacts of the United States goal of reducing food waste by consumers through various SLE lengths. It was found that uptake of several near-ready-to-deploy SLE technologies would reduce annual food production demand by about 10–19 MMT and supply chain energy consumption by 240–410 PJ in the United States.

Food loss and waste (FLW)↗
NASA NTRS1984

Food Acquisition: Food Ingredients, Raw Materials and Supply

The kind of food supply system that will serve the space station in coming years is considered. The direction and rate of evolution of space food service systems is also considered and what is needed to supply appropriate food to space station crews. Innovations in food sourcing, recipe development, pre-preparation, packaging, preservation, presentation, consumption and waste disposal are discussed. The development and validation of preparation systems and ingredients which minimize demands on crew time and provide maximum eating enjoyment is outlined.

Wheat, D. W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Anatomical Fraction segmentation in the biomass bales

The U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) is committed to the development of sustainable, nationwide, commercial biofuel production to displace petroleum-derived fuels, increase domestic energy production, and encourage the creation of a domestic bioenergy and bioproducts industry. Operating a commercial-scale bioenergy operation requires significant technological advancements for determining biomass feedstock quality during the preprocessing stage. Usage of non-food feedstocks- e.g., corn-stover, pine residue, and forest residue - at the biorefineries reduces strain on the food supply chain. But the non-food feedstock heterogeneity- physical size, shape, and chemical composition-poses a significant challenge during milling, conveyance, feeding, and biofuel conversion processes. 3D X-Ray imaging (CT) is capable of distinguishing material features by detecting density and compositional differences. But the inherent complexity introduced during harvesting and bailing makes the reconstruction and interpretation of baled biomass materials from x-ray data time consuming, laborious, and expensive. Feedstocks are low-density materials that produce small contrast differences in the x-ray images. This paper focuses on using the shape and texture properties, using 3D image processing techniques like 3D skeletonization, directional statistics to characterize and extract volumetric content of the different tissue samples in the biomass bales.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1976

Skylab nutritional studies

Precise nutritional specifications arising from both physiological and experimental requirements necessitated a comprehensive study of the chemical composition of the Skylab food supply. Each of the approximately 70 different food items was analyzed for digestible and nondigestible carbohydrate, and for protein, amino acids, fat, fatty acids, vitamins, and minerals. Menus were formulated to provide at least the National Research Council's Recommended Dietary Allowance of all essential nutrients and, in addition, to provide constant daily intakes of calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, sodium, potassium and protein. In general, the crewmembers adhered to their programmed menus. The ability to swallow and digest food was unaffected by prolonged weightlessness. Taste acuity also appeared to be undiminished inflight. The bone and muscle changes which occurred in previous flights were more pronounced in Skylab. It is concluded that these changes did not develop as a result of nutritional deficit. If such changes are nutritionally related, they point to the existence of nutritional requirements in weightlessness which differ quantitatively from those observed on earth.

Rambaut, P. C.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Skylab nutritional studies

Precise nutritional specifications arising from both physiological and experimental requirements necessitated a comprehensive study of the chemical composition of the Skylab food supply. Each of the approximately seventy different food items was analyzed for digestible and non-digestible carbohydrate, and for protein, amino acids, fat, fatty acids, vitamins and minerals. Menus were formulated to provide at least the National Research Council's Recommended Dietary Allowance of all essential nutrients and, in addition, to provide constant daily intakes of calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, sodium, potassium and protein. In general, the crew members adhered to their programmed menus. The ability to swallow and digest food was unaffected by prolonged weightlessness. Taste acuity also appeared to be undiminished in flight. The bone and muscle changes which occurred in previous flights were more pronounced in Skylab. It is concluded that these changes did not develop as a result of nutritional deficit. If such changes are nutritionally related, they point to the existence of nutritional requirements in weightlessness which differ quantitatively from those observed on earth.

long duration↗
NASA NTRS2018

New Crop Selection

For extended space flight, reliable food supplies are a necessity. Most of the food products consumed by astronauts today are stored for flight via freeze drying. Fresh food is needed to supplement known national deficiencies in the stored food diet (Cooper et al.). This is so because stored foods can lose nutritional value. Fresh food is the answer to the nutritional demands of space flight. Kennedy Space Center's Utilization and Life Sciences Office (UB-A), under the Exploration Research and Technology Program (UB), conducts research on plant growth and development under International Space Station (ISS) conditions. UB-A analyzes the growth responses of leafy greens in microgravity and through the manipulation of environmental conditions (CO2 levels, light intensity, relative humidity, and water delivery). By manipulating growing conditions researchers can optimize food production using minimal/restricted resources. The New Crop Selection experiments are testing the suitability of leafy crops to ISS conditions. Results from this study showed that 'Dragoon' Lettuce and 'Red Russian' Kale have the largest fresh mass.

Bhuiyan, Ruqayah H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Food And Agriculture Supply Chain Model

This model is part of an LDRD effort to investigate the connection of food and agriculture supply chain and the critical infrastructure. The model was built for a small number of farmers, shippers, processing companies and retailers as proof of concept to illustrate supply chain impacts. In this model, the emphasis is on understanding the climate change impacts on the food supply chain. The model uses agent-based modeling method in combination with machine learning. It also connects logistic simulation with economic principles such as price change caused by supply and demand, and consumer substitution effect based on price comparisons of two substitutable commodities.

Nguyen, Thuy↗
NASA NTRS2021

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗
NASA NTRS2022

Pre- and Post-Production Processes Increasingly Dominate Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Agri-Food Systems

We present results from the FAOSTAT emissions shares database, covering emissions from agri-food systems and their shares to total anthropogenic emissions for 196 countries and 40 territories for the period 1990–2019. We find that in 2019, global agri-food system emissions were 16.5 (95 %; CI range: 11–22) billion metric tonnes (GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)), corresponding to 31%(range: 19 %–43 %) of total anthropogenic emissions. Of the agri-food system total, global emissions within the farm gate – from crop and livestock production processes including on-farm energy use – were 7.2 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1); emissions from land use change, due to deforestation and peatland degradation, were 3.5 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1); and emissions from pre- and post-production processes – manufacturing of fertilizers, food processing, packaging, transport, retail, household consumption and food waste disposal – were 5.8 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1). Over the study period 1990–2019, agri-food system emissions increased in total by 17 %, largely driven by a doubling of emissions from pre- and post-production processes. Conversely, the FAOSTAT data show that since 1990 land use emissions decreased by 25 %, while emissions within the farm gate increased 9 %. In 2019, in terms of individual greenhouse gases (GHGs), pre- and postproduction processes emitted the most CO2 (3.9 GtCO2 yr(exp -1)), preceding land use change (3.3 GtCO2 yr(exp -1)) and farm gate (1.2 GtCO2 yr(exp -1)) emissions. Conversely, farm gate activities were by far the major emitter of methane (140 MtCH4 yr(exp -1)) and of nitrous oxide (7.8 MtN2Oyr(exp -1)). Pre- and post-production processes were also significant emitters of methane (49 MtCH4 yr(exp -1)), mostly generated from the decay of solid food waste in landfills and open dumps. One key trend over the 30-year period since 1990 highlighted by our analysis is the increasingly important role of food-related emissions generated outside of agricultural land, in pre- and post-production processes along the agri-food system, at global, regional and national scales. In fact, our data show that by 2019, pre- and post-production processes had overtaken farm gate processes to become the largest GHG component of agri-food system emissions in Annex I parties (2.2 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)). They also more than doubled in non-Annex I parties (to 3.5 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)), becoming larger than emissions from land use change. By 2019 food supply chains had become the largest agri-food system component in China (1100 MtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)), the USA (700 MtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)) and the EU-27 (600 MtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)). This has important repercussions for food-relevant national mitigation strategies, considering that until recently these have focused mainly on reductions of non-CO2 gases within the farm gate and on CO2 mitigation from land use change. The information used in this work is available as open data with DOI https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5615082 (Tubiello et al., 2021d). It is also available to users via the FAOSTAT database (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/EM; FAO, 2021a), with annual updates.

FAOSTAT agri-food systems emissions database↗