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At least 37 records · Page 2

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming

A Fundamentally New Coupled Approach to Contact Mechanics via the Dirichlet‐Neumann Schwarz Alternating Method

Contact phenomena are crucial for understanding the behavior of mechanical systems. However, existing computational approaches for simulating mechanical contact often face numerical challenges, such as inaccurate physical predictions, energy conservation errors, and unwanted oscillations. Here, we introduce an alternative technique for simulating dynamic contact based on the non‐overlapping Schwarz alternating method, originally developed for domain decomposition. In multibody contact scenarios, this method treats each body as a separate, non‐overlapping domain and prevents interpenetration using an alternating Dirichlet–Neumann iterative process. This approach has a strong theoretical foundation, eliminates the need for contact constraints, and offers flexibility, making it ideal for multiscale and multiphysics applications. We conducted a numerical comparison between the Schwarz method and traditional methods, such as the Lagrange multiplier and penalty methods, focusing on a benchmark impact problem. Our results indicate that the Schwarz alternating method outperforms traditional methods in several key areas: it provides more accurate predictions for various measurable quantities and demonstrates exceptional energy conservation capabilities. To address unwanted oscillations in contact velocities and forces, we explored various algorithms and stabilization techniques, ultimately opting for the naïve‐stabilized Newmark scheme for its simplicity and effectiveness. Additionally, we validated the efficiency of the Schwarz method in a three‐dimensional impact problem, highlighting its inherent capacity to accommodate different mesh topologies, time‐integration schemes, and time steps for each interacting body.

Schwarz alternating method

Integrable symplectic maps with a polygon tessellation

Identifying integrable dynamics remains a formidable challenge, and despite centuries of research, only a handful of examples are known to date. In this article, we explore a distinct form of area-preserving (symplectic) mappings derived from the stroboscopic Poincaré cross section of a kicked rotator—an oscillator subjected to an external force periodically switched on in short pulses. The significance of this class of problems extends to various applications in physics and mathematics, including particle accelerators, crystallography, and studies of chaos. Notably, Suris's theorem constrains the integrability within this category of mappings, outlining potential scenarios with analytic invariants of motion. In this paper, we challenge the assumption of the analyticity of the invariant by exploring piecewise linear transformations on a torus ( T 2 ) and associated systems on the plane ( R 2 ), incorporating arithmetic quasiperiodicity and discontinuities. Introducing a new automated technique, we discovered previously unknown scenarios featuring polygonal invariants that form perfect tessellations and, moreover, fibrations of the plane or torus. This work reveals a novel category of planar tilings characterized by discrete symmetries that emerge from the invertibility of transformations and are intrinsically linked to the presence of integrability. Our algorithm relies on the analysis of the Poincaré rotation number and its piecewise monotonic nature for integrable cases, contrasting with the noisy behavior in the case of chaos, thereby allowing for clear separation. Some of the newly discovered systems exhibit the peculiar behavior of “integrable diffusion,” characterized by infinite and quasirandom hopping between tiles while being confined to a set of invariant segments. Finally, through the implementation of a smoothening procedure, all mappings can be generalized to quasi-integrable scenarios with suppressed volume occupied by chaotic trajectories, thereby opening doors to potential practical applications. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS

East Pacific ENSO Offers Early Predictive Signals for Harvest Yields

Abstract Annual wheat yields have steadily risen over the past century, but harvests remain highly variable and dependent on myriad weather conditions during a long growing season. In Kansas, for example, the 2014 crop year brought the lowest average yield in decades at 28 bushels per acre, while in 2016 farmers in the Wheat State, as Kansas is often called, enjoyed a historic high of 57 bushels per acre. It is broadly known that remote forces like El Niño–Southern Oscillation contribute to meteorological outcomes across North America, including in the wheat-growing regions of the U.S. Midwest, but the differential imprints of ENSO phases and flavors have not been well explored as leading indicators for harvest outcomes in highly specific agricultural regions, such as the more than 7 million acres upon which wheat is grown in Kansas. Here, we demonstrate a strong, steady, and long-term association between a simple “wheat yield index” and sea surface temperature anomalies, more than a year earlier, in the East Pacific, potentially offering insights into forthcoming harvest yields several seasons before planting commences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Investigating the Relative Contribution from Tropical Indo-Pacific SST to Asian Monsoon Precipitation Variability Using LIM

Abstract A critical issue is determining the factors that control the year-to-year variability in precipitation over southern Asia. In this study, we employ a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to quantify the relative contribution of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) to the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon, especially Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Through a series of CS-LIM experiments, we isolate the impacts of the direct forcing from Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs, and their interaction on Asian monsoon rainfall variability. Our results reveal distinct patterns of influence with the direct forcing from the Pacific (Indian) Ocean tending to enhance (reduce) the magnitude of precipitation variability, while the Indo-Pacific interaction acts to strongly damp the variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, especially over India. We further investigate these specific impacts on ISMR by analyzing the relationship between tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs and the leading three empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR. The results from our CS-LIM experiments indicate that the direct forcing from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances the variability of the first and third EOFs, while the Indian Ocean SSTA opposes ENSO’s effects, which is consistent with previous studies. Our new results show that the tropical Indo-Pacific interaction strongly damps ISMR variability, which is due to the ENSO-induced Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) opposing the direct impacts from ENSO on ISMR. Additionally, reduced ENSO amplitude and duration associated with the Indo-Pacific interaction may also contribute to the damping effect on ISMR, but this requires further study to understand the relevant mechanisms.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

On forced RF generation of CW magnetrons for accelerators

CW magnetrons, initially developed for industrial RF heaters, were suggested to power RF cavities of superconducting accelerators due to their higher efficiency and lower cost than traditionally used klystrons, IOTs or solid-state amplifiers. RF amplifiers driven by a master oscillator serve as coherent RF sources. CW magnetrons are regenerative RF generators with a huge regenerative gain. This causes regenerative instability with a quite large noise when a magnetron operates with the anode voltage above the threshold of self-excitation. Traditionally, an injection locking by a small signal is used for stabilization of magnetrons. In this case CW magnetrons with the injection-locked oscillations generate a high level of noise. This may preclude use of standard CW magnetrons in this operating mode in the Superconducting RF (SRF) accelerators. In this article we described a method developed for forced RF generation of CW magnetrons when the magnetron startup is provided by the injected forcing signal and the regenerative noise is suppressed. The method is most suitable for powering high Q-factor cavities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

Exploring entanglement and spectral split correlations in three-flavor collective neutrino oscillations

In environments with prodigious numbers of neutrinos, such as core-collapse supernovae, neutron star mergers, or the early Universe, neutrino-neutrino interactions are dynamically significant. They can dominate neutrino flavor evolution and force it to be nonlinear, causing collective neutrino oscillations. Such collective oscillations have been studied numerically, for systems with up to millions of neutrinos, using mean-field or one-particle effective approximations. However, such a system of interacting neutrinos is a quantum many-body system, wherein quantum correlations could play a significant role in the flavor evolution—thereby motivating the exploration of many-body treatments that follow the time evolution of these correlations. In many-body flavor evolution calculations with two neutrino flavors, the emergence of spectral splits in the neutrino energy distributions has been found to be correlated with the degree of quantum entanglement across the spectrum. In this work, for the first time, we investigate the emergence of spectral splits in the three-flavor many-body collective neutrino oscillations. We find that the emergence of spectral splits resembles the number and location found in the mean-field approximation but not in the width. Moreover, unlike in the two-flavor many-body calculations, we find that additional degrees of freedom make it more difficult to establish a correlation between the location of the spectral splits and the degree of quantum entanglement across the neutrino energy spectrum. The observation from the two-flavor case, that neutrinos nearest to the spectral split frequency exhibit the highest level of entanglement, is more difficult to ascertain in the three-flavor case because of the presence of multiple spectral splits across different pairwise combinations of flavor and/or mass states. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Improving the QBO Forcing by Resolved Waves With Vertical Grid Refinement in E3SMv2

Abstract The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominate mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere and plays an important role in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. The QBO is notably deficient in many climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the US Department of Energy. In this work, we refine the lower stratospheric vertical grid spacing from roughly 1 km to 500 m to facilitate more realistic equatorial wave activity in the lower stratosphere in E3SM version 2. The refinement results in a simulated QBO with a reasonable amplitude and easterly‐westerly transition in both directions, but still has a longer period than observed, slower easterly downward propagation speed, and shallower vertical depth. Similar refinement in the multi‐scale modeling framework configuration of E3SM yields similar improvements. By analyzing the forcing contributions from different wave types, we find that most of the QBO forcing still comes from parameterized gravity wave drag from convection. The improved QBO forcing contributions from resolved waves, especially equatorial Kelvin waves and resolved small scale waves, can be attributed to the grid refinement.

E3SM

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

How Proton Incorporation Reshapes Lattice Dynamics In BaSnO 3 ‐Type Proton Conductors

Proton conduction in acceptor-doped perovskites is fundamentally a vibronic process: mobile H + and D + do not move independently, but dynamically co-vibrate with the surrounding oxygen–metal framework. Direct experimental evidence for this behavior is presented using in situ 119⁢ 𝑆⁢𝑛 nuclear resonance vibrational spectroscopy (NRVS) on hydrated, deuterated, and dry 𝐵⁢𝑎⁢𝑆⁢𝑛 1−𝑥⁢ 𝑌 𝑥 ⁢𝑂 3−𝛿 . Hydration induces systematic redistributions in the Sn-projected phonon density of states (PDOS), including an upshift of the first spectral moment by about 0.4 meV, indicating a stiffening of the extended Sn–O network. H/D isotopic substitution leaves the Sn-projected PDOS largely unchanged, with only subtle isotope-dependent spectral reweighting, demonstrating that protonic degrees of freedom are not localized oscillators but are embedded in collective lattice modes. These results are rationalized using a classical coupled proton–phonon oscillator model that links the observed PDOS variations to changes in effective force constants and vibrational mass terms. The model captures how H + and D + participate in cooperative lattice dynamics rather than forming isolated OH/OD entities. Overall, NRVS probes proton–lattice coupling in ceramic proton conductors and quantitatively describes how protonic defects modulate host lattice dynamics to enable phonon-assisted long-range proton transport.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Near Detector Selection for Neutral Current Disappearance Search at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program

Various short baseline neutrino experiments observe anomalies that challenge the three-flavor neutrino oscillation model, consistent with a hypothetical “sterile” neutrino that does not interact via the weak force. This poster presents a near detector event selection at the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND), developed for the first search for neutral current (NC) disappearance at short-baseline experiments. NC disappearance provides ``smoking gun” insight into the sterile neutrino question because NC interactions are equally sensitive to all three active neutrinos, meaning any change in the NC interaction rate between near and far detectors cannot be explained by oscillations among known flavor states. This analysis focuses on the NC1p topology, the most common NC interaction type at the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. NC topologies are inherently challenging due to their low light yield and the absence of an outgoing charged lepton, which complicates identification and leads to poor energy reconstruction as the outgoing neutrino carries away a large portion of the neutrino’s initial energy. This work presents an NC1p event selection at the near detector, highlighting SBND’s impressive detector capabilities, including trigger efficiency studies. Combined with a novel kinematic energy reconstruction technique leveraging the detector’s outstanding hadronic detail, this analysis establishes a robust near detector foundation to target an NC disappearance measurement consistent with the 3$+$1 sterile neutrino model. This SBND selection will soon be combined with the far detector to conduct an NC disappearance search, providing unique insight and complementary information to traditional charged current searches and advancing the SBN Program’s goal to resolve the sterile neutrino question, including 3$+$1 searches and beyond.

Nicole Pallat, Nicole Pallat [Minnesota U.] (ORCID

Shear-free, inhomogeneous turbulence in a stably stratified fluid

High-resolution large eddy simulations are conducted of locally forced, shear-free turbulence in the presence of an initially sharp density interface. The simulations are reminiscent of oscillating grid turbulence experiments used to isolate the effect of turbulent diffusion and entrainment from background shear. By simulating such a flow we avoid common challenges of the experiments such as secondary-flow contamination due to sidewall effects and the inevitable interaction of the stratifying agent and forcing region. To address the latter concern, we add a heating term (potential energy sink) to the governing equations in the forcing layer, thereby preventing a heat flux through the source region. This modification sets up a continuous stratification in the mixed layer that is often assumed to be negligible in experiments. Despite this difference, we are able to make meaningful comparisons in terms of the overall entrainment rate, which varies as a power law with a turbulent Richardson number. Two exponents, −2 and −1, are measured depending on the definition of the Richardson number and entrainment rate used. The definition leading to −1 is consistent with most experiments, and we argue it is the superior choice if one is able to measure the relevant quantities. We also verify the self-similar scaling of turbulence velocity and length scales in the homogeneous fluid and propose ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ scalings for the stratified cases based on a local Froude number. The detailed scaling results are useful for turbulence model validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Coriolis forces modify magnetostatic ponderomotive potentials

It is possible to produce a ponderomotive effect in a plasma system without time-varying fields, if the plasma flows over spatial oscillations in the field. This can be achieved by superimposing a spatially oscillatory perturbation on a guide field, then setting up an electric field perpendicular to the guide field to drive flow over the perturbation. However, subtle distinctions in the structure of the resulting electric field can entirely change the behavior of the resulting ponderomotive force. Previous work has shown that, in slab models, these distinctions can be explained in terms of the polarization of the effective wave that appears in the co-moving frame. Here, we consider what happens to this picture in a cylindrical system, where the transformation to the co-moving (rotating) frame is not inertial. It turns out that the non-inertial nature of this frame transformation can lead to counterintuitive behavior, partly due to the appearance of parallel (magnetic-field-aligned) electric fields in the rotating frame even in cases where none existed in the laboratory frame. Apart from the academic interest of this study, the practical impact lies in being better able to anticipate the antenna configuration on the plasma periphery of a cylindrical plasma that will lead to optimal ponderomotive barrier formation in the interior plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

On Forced RF Generation of CW Magnetrons for SRF Accelerators

CW magnetrons, initially developed for industrial RF heaters, were suggested to power RF cavities of superconducting accelerators due to their higher efficiency and lower cost than traditionally used klystrons, IOTs or solid-state amplifiers. RF amplifiers driven by a master oscillator serve as coherent RF sources. CW magnetrons are regenerative RF generators with a huge regenerative gain. This causes regenerative instability with a large noise when a magnetron operates with the anode voltage above the threshold of self-excitation. Traditionally for stabilization of magnetrons is used injection locking by a quite small signal. Then the magnetron except the injection locked oscillations may generate noise. This may preclude use of standard CW magnetrons in some SRF accelerators. Recently we developed briefly described below a mode for forced RF generation of CW magnetrons when the magnetron startup is provided by the injected forcing signal and the regenerative noise is suppressed. The mode is most suitable for powering high Q-factor SRF cavities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS

On forced RF generation of CW magnetrons for SRF accelerators

CW magnetrons, initially developed for industrial RF heaters, were suggested to power RF cavities of superconducting accelerators due to their higher efficiency and lower cost of RF power per Watt than used traditionally klystrons, IOTs or solid-state amplifiers. RF amplifiers driven by a master oscillator serve as coherent RF sources. CW magnetrons are regenerative RF generators with a huge regenerative gain to start up reliably with self-excitation even if the tube is powered by a DC power supply. This causes regenerative instability with a large noise when a magnetron operates with the anode voltage above the threshold of self-excitation. Traditionally for stabilization of magnetrons is used injection locking by a signal PLock ≤ -20 dB or less then of the magnetron power PMag. Then the magnetron generates the injection locked oscillations and generates noise. This may preclude use of standard CW magnetrons in some SRF accelerators. We developed briefly described below a mode for forced coherent RF generation of CW magnetrons when the magnetron startup is provided by the injected forcing signal and the regenerative noise is suppressed. The mode is most suitable for powering high Q-factor SRF cavities.

Kazakevich, G.

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

The Hard Life of Floatovoltaics: Modeling Wind-Driven Oscillations of Floating Solar Panels

Modern, thin photovoltaic (PV) panels for solar power are susceptible to high stress loads in windy conditions. Manufacturers are eager to determine optimal installation practices to reduce these loads, including in the relatively new practice of installing PV on floating structures located on artificial and natural lakes. As part of our effort to develop simulation capabilities for stress on such floating PV systems, we here present our combined model-simulation approach, which simulates the dynamic wind loading and uses modeled elements to capture both the hydrodynamic and mooring-line forces. We discuss the forces important for our model and the challenges inherent in our simulation. Of particular interest is our model of the hysteresis response displayed by the attached mooring lines, which are engineered to damp motion and oscillation of the floating panel system. We validate our approach against the benchmark problem of vortex-induced vibration of a cylinder, which is driven by the same dynamic forces present in floating PV panels.

floating