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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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33 records · Page 2

System Safety and the Unintended Consequence

The analysis and identification of risks often result in design changes or modification of operational steps. This paper identifies the potential of unintended consequences as an over-looked result of these changes. Examples of societal changes such as prohibition, regulatory changes including mandating lifeboats on passenger ships, and engineering proposals or design changes to automobiles and spaceflight hardware are used to demonstrate that the System Safety Engineer must be cognizant of the potential for unintended consequences as a result of an analysis. Conclusions of the report indicate the need for additional foresight and consideration of the potential effects of analysis-driven design, processing changes, and/or operational modifications.

Watson, Clifford↗

Bridging the Gap: Use of Spaceflight Technologies for Earth-Based Problems

Spaceflight is colloquially deemed, the final frontier, or the last area which humans have not yet explored in great depth. While this is true, there are still many regions on Earth that remain isolated from the urban, socially and electronically connected world. Because travelling to space requires a great deal of foresight, engineers are required to think creatively in order to invent technologies that are durable enough to withstand the rigors of the unique and often treacherous environment of outer space. The innovations that are a result of spaceflight designs can often be applied to life on Earth, particularly in the rural, isolated communities found throughout the world. The NASA Human Health and Performance Center (NHHPC) is a collaborative, virtual forum that connects businesses, non-profit organizations, academia, and government agencies to allow for better distribution of ideas and technology between these entities (http://www.nasa.gov/offices/NHHPC). There are many technologies that have been developed for spaceflight that can be readily applied to rural communities on Earth. For example, water filtration systems designed for spaceflight must be robust and easily repaired; therefore, a system with these qualifications may be used in rural areas on Earth. This particular initiative seeks to connect established, non-profit organizations working in isolated communities throughout the world with NASA technologies devised for spaceflight. These technologies could include water purification systems, solar power generators, or telemedicine techniques. Applying innovative, spaceflight technologies to isolated communities on Earth provides greater benefits from the same research dollars, thus fulfilling the Space Life Science motto at Johnson Space Center: Exploring Space and Enhancing Life. This paper will discuss this NHHPC global outreach initiative and give examples based on the recent work of the organization.

Brinley, Alaina↗

Small Launch Vehicle Trade Space Definition: Development of a Zero Level Mass Estimation Tool with Trajectory Validation

Recent high level interest in the capability of small launch vehicles has placed significant demand on determining the trade space these vehicles occupy. This has led to the development of a zero level analysis tool that can quickly determine the minimum expected vehicle gross liftoff weight (GLOW) in terms of vehicle stage specific impulse (Isp) and propellant mass fraction (pmf) for any given payload value. Utilizing an extensive background in Earth to orbit trajectory experience a total necessary delta v the vehicle must achieve can be estimated including relevant loss terms. This foresight into expected losses allows for more specific assumptions relating to the initial estimates of thrust to weight values for each stage. This tool was further validated against a trajectory model, in this case the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), to determine if the initial sizing delta v was adequate to meet payload expectations. Presented here is a description of how the tool is setup and the approach the analyst must take when using the tool. Also, expected outputs which are dependent on the type of small launch vehicle being sized will be displayed. The method of validation will be discussed as well as where the sizing tool fits into the vehicle design process.

Waters, Eric D.↗

A Comparison of the SOCIT and DebriSat Experiments

This paper explores the differences between, and shares the lessons learned from, two hypervelocity impact experiments critical to the update of orbital debris environment models. The procedures and processes of the fourth Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT) were analyzed and related to the ongoing DebriSat experiment. SOCIT was the first hypervelocity impact test designed specifically for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). It targeted a 1960's U.S. Navy satellite, from which data was obtained to update pre-existing NASA and DOD breakup models. DebriSat is a comprehensive update to these satellite breakup models- necessary since the material composition and design of satellites have evolved from the time of SOCIT. Specifically, DebriSat utilized carbon fiber, a composite not commonly used in satellites during the construction of the US Navy Transit satellite used in SOCIT. Although DebriSat is an ongoing activity, multiple points of difference are drawn between the two projects. Significantly, the hypervelocity tests were conducted with two distinct satellite models and test configurations, including projectile and chamber layout. While both hypervelocity tests utilized soft catch systems to minimize fragment damage to its post-impact shape, SOCIT only covered 65% of the projected area surrounding the satellite, whereas, DebriSat was completely surrounded cross-range and downrange by the foam panels to more completely collect fragments. Furthermore, utilizing lessons learned from SOCIT, DebriSat's post-impact processing varies in methodology (i.e., fragment collection, measurement, and characterization). For example, fragment sizes were manually determined during the SOCIT experiment, while DebriSat utilizes automated imaging systems for measuring fragments, maximizing repeatability while minimizing the potential for human error. In addition to exploring these variations in methodologies and processes, this paper also presents the challenges DebriSat has encountered thus far and how they were addressed. Accomplishing DebriSat's goal of collecting 90% of the debris, which constitutes well over 100,000 fragments, required addressing many challenges stemming from the very large number of fragments. One of these challenges arose in identifying the foam-embedded fragments. DebriSat addressed this by X-raying all of the panels once the loose debris were removed, and applying a detection algorithm developed in-house to automate the embedded fragment identification process. It is easy to see how the amount of data being compiled would be outstanding. Creating an efficient way to catalog each fragment, as well as archiving the data for reproducibility also posed a great challenge for DebriSat. Barcodes to label each fragment were introduced with the foresight that once the characterization process began, the datasheet for each fragment would have to be accessed again quickly and efficiently. The DebriSat experiment has benefited significantly by leveraging lessons learned from the SOCIT experiment along with the technological advancements that have occurred during the time between the experiments. The two experiments represent two ages of satellite technology and, together, demonstrate the continuous efforts to improve the experimental techniques for fragmentation debris characterization.

Ausay, Erick↗

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

California drought;Atmospheric ridging;Ocean-atmos↗

Performance Management: Should We Manage to a Single Data Point? A NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Perspective

With today's changing environment, meeting project commitments can be challenging. The Flight Projects Directorate at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has a portfolio of over 60 missions in various stages of the space flight life cycle. Numerous methods and approaches are used to monitor and track project performance and utilization of tools can provide valuable information to help manage missions. However, challenges can arise when these approaches are viewed as the sole data point for assessing the project status. At GSFC, performance management metric-based tools have provided insightful information for evaluating the programmatic health of space projects. These tools have provided the awareness and foresight desired to effectively manage and meet commitments, which is tremendously beneficial on the road to achieving mission success.

Peters, Wanda↗

The Next Generation Space Telescope: Visiting a Time When Galaxies Were Young

In the spring and summer of 1996, three independent teams studied the feasibility of a large aperture space telescope to follow the Hubble Space Telescope. The scientific goals for the new telescope had been laid out in a report by the HST & Beyond Committee, a group appointed by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy to consider the needs of the astronomical community after the nominal end of the HST mission in 2005. The technical capabilities and constraints on the new observatory were daunting: the telescope optics should be at least 4 meters in diameter and passively cooled to achieve optimum sensitivity in the near-infrared portion of the spectrum. Moreover, the costs should be kept within a fraction of those for the HST: approximately $500M for construction and $900M for lifetime costs, not including support for scientific data analysis. In their presentations to NASA on 19-21 August, 1996, the teams led by Lockheed Martin, TRW, and the Goddard Space Flight Center concluded that a Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) was not only feasible and affordable, but that it could be made more powerful using recent breakthroughs in space technologies. Coming on the heels of breathtaking HST observations of distant galaxies in the process of formation, such an NGST could bridge the gap in our understanding of the earliest origins of stars, galaxies, and the elements that are the foundations of Life. This report presents the findings of the three teams and the technological roadmap which will guide us to the successful development of the NGST over the next decade. We have made liberal use of the written material, tables, and diagrams prepared by the three study teams. We have also taken advantage of the knowledge and ideas of our colleagues in government, industry and academia. In Appendix A, we list the members of the three study groups, the NGST Science Working Group and the NGST Scientific Oversight Committee. We deeply appreciate their assistance, advice, and enthusiasm. The scientific and technological goals of NGST are part of the Origins initiative in the Office of Space Science, NASA Headquarters. We are pleased to acknowledge the support and leadership of Edward Weiler, a steadfast friend of HST, Harley Thronson, a proponent of all things infrared, and Mike Kaplan, a tireless advocate of new technology. John Campbell, Project Manager for HST, initiated the NGST study at GSFC and we deeply appreciate his formative efforts and continued support. We are also grateful for the foresight of Riccardo Giacconi, Director General of the European Southern Observatory (ESO), and the efforts of his staff. We note that European Space Agency (ESA) staff at the Space Telescope Science Institute and ESO played important roles in the NGST scientific and technical studies. We look forward to future collaboration with ESA, ESO, and other international partners.

H.S. Stockman↗

Artificial Intelligence Medical Support for Long-Duration Space Missions

We envision an artificial intelligence (AI) based system that will provide support and recommendations to the crew medical officer (CMO) and ground flight surgeon during long-duration space missions. Such a system would be pretrained on the knowledgebase of clinical knowledge on Earth, minimizing the amount of Earth data that needs to be transferred into space. Then during deployment, the system would be constantly refined through active learning from diverse streams of data from sensors in the spacecraft, data collected daily from individual astronauts, and human-in-the-loop feedback from the crew. The model could be interrogated for predictions and recommendations on personalized crew health based on the overall status of the spacecraft, medicinal stores, and status of other crew members. Adaptation techniques would be used to incorporate spaceflight data that have very different distributions from the training data due to the extreme environment. Edge computing and the most advanced neuromorphic processing would enable computation in scenarios with low power and bandwidth, while dimensionality reduction would be employed to ensure that the input data streams from spaceflight are as small as possible. In order to realize this long-term vision, several hardware and software aspects need to be developed and assembled. First, models pretrained on Earth biomedical data would need to be evaluated for predictive accuracy, and the best one selected. That model would need to be adapted to learn from diverse, sparse, and inconsistently measured data streams, as well as human-in-the-loop feedback. A data integration, standardization, and dimensionality reduction methodology would need to be developed to handle all data types and feed them into the model. Once the software and data infrastructure is developed, it would need to be integrated with small footprint compute processors and tested in high-radiation, high-vibration, unregulated temperature situations. As a short-term goal, we recommend to focus on the development of the data and model software structure. Several large language models (LLM) already exist that have been trained on Earth biomedical and clinical knowledgebases, including BioMedLLM, Med-PaLM, SPOKE LLM, and Foresight. These models need to be evaluated for accuracy and the best one chosen for a proof-of-concept structure, while maintaining awareness of the accelerating AI field and incorporating any newly improved model architectures as needed. Then, we recommend to develop a database of synthetic data types to mimic the diverse data streams that are expected in a long-duration space mission. This should include environmental and microbial data from the spacecraft, non-invasive data from wearables and point-of-care devices employed by astronauts, and more invasive molecular and physiological monitoring of clinical and biomarker data from astronauts. The data standardization methodology should be developed, and these data streams used to refine the clinical LLM. Several scenarios should be developed that could plausibly come up in a long-duration space mission, and changes or aberrations introduced to the data at specific times to mimic these scenarios. Then, question and answer tasks should be designed to interrogate the model for predictions and recommendations, with acceptable answers already identified.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Summary of Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis (ANGSA) and Insights for Artemis Preliminary Examination Activities

Analyses of Apollo samples have provided fundamental insights into the origin and history of the Earth-Moon system and the solar system broadly. With great foresight, a subset of samples from Apollo were left unprocessed so that they could be studied by future generations with their modern technology. To prepare for the return of samples from the Moon by the Artemis Program, NASA initiated the Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis Program (ANGSA) to analyze a subset of the previously unprocessed Apollo samples. The ANGSA consortium consisted of 9 original teams funded by NASA that combined into a single science team referred to as the ANGSA Science Team. ANGSA was designed to function like the sample analysis phase of a sample return mission with a goal to investigate the lower portion of a double drive tube previously sealed on the lunar surface (73001), the upper portion of that drive tube that had remained unopened (73002), and a variety of Apollo 17 samples that had remained stored at -20 ºC for approximately 50 years.

Francis M. McCubbin↗

Discounting Water for Optimal Carbon Gain as a Basis of Stomatal Closure

The exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapor between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is regulated by stomata (small pores in the leaves of plants). Unsurprisingly, environmental factors controlling the opening and closure of stomata has been sought as early as 1800. One approach, popularized in the early 1970s, is a stomatal optimization framework. This framework is based on the hypothesis that plants optimize carbon gain subject to water loss or water availability constraints. This constraint optimization problem was solved in various forms assuming instantaneous adjustments of stomatal aperture to maximize a reward function with no future foresight or legacy effects. Holtzman et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023av001113) offers a novel approach that can diagnose the effective timescale over which the reward function maximization must be time-integrated. The developed method thus optimizes an integrated carbon gain function but adjusted by a discount factor subject to water availability in the root zone. The discount factor considers how the plant values carbon gain to save water and its timescale can be inferred from observations because the model is analytically tractable. The results suggest that the most important climate factor that determines this discount timescale is multi-annual mean of the longest dry period during the growing season. The findings highlight how local climate traits influence the spatial variation in ecosystem-level water use strategies. This sets the stage for expanding such a framework to cases where multiple constraints act in concert while operating at distinct time scales.

stomata↗

Governing in Time: Temporal Capacity and the Feasibility of Energy Transitions

Energy systems function as both technological systems and temporal institutions that shape how societies coordinate, justify, and support collective choices over time. This paper introduces the concept of governance horizons to explain why energy transitions can remain morally supported yet become institutionally weak under increasing pressure. We argue that governability depends on institutions' capacity to synchronize across multiple timeframes - aligning short-term decisions with intermediate coordination and long-term commitments. When this synchronization fails, transitions struggle not because their goals are dismissed, but because governance lacks sufficient time to justify, coordinate, and uphold decisions. Comparative analysis of San Antonio, Texas, and Interior Alaska reveals how energy system pressures generate distinct temporal configurations: San Antonio exhibits governance horizon stretching, where institutions must simultaneously meet near-term reliability demands and long-term transformation goals, while Interior Alaska exhibits horizon compression, where extreme environmental constraints force decision-making into short stabilization cycles. In both contexts, public support for sustainability goals coexists with institutional strain because evaluative judgments are unevenly distributed over time. A temporal configuration analysis is introduced as a diagnostic analytic stance for identifying these patterns. By treating temporal alignment as an explanatory variable rather than a background condition, this approach clarifies how feasibility, sequencing, and legitimacy are shaped by constraints on institutional time. The analysis demonstrates that successful energy transitions depend not only on technological innovation or institutional support, but on governance systems’ ability to sustain credible coordination across multiple time horizons.

Comparative case study↗

Cas Mapping – Helping Aviation Find Problems Worth Solving

The mapping process discovers trends, needs, and capabilities from interviews with diverse groups of people, data analytics tools, and from publications. These are analyzed in the context of future scenarios to uncover problem areas that have the highest possible impact on the broadest number of people while ensuring that we are prepared for the future.

Mapping↗

Aviation 2072: Scenario Planning for Wicked Problems

The world is changing rapidly. And with it, so are the potential futures for humanity. Many of these potential futures pose hidden threats, while others offer new opportunities for aviation and the broader aerospace community. To mitigate these risks and capitalize on opportunities, organizations must work to deeply understand these potential future scenarios and uncover any underlying drivers. Organizations will be more equipped and informed when making strategic investment decisions by better understanding these threats, opportunities, and drivers . The future scenarios and their threats and opportunities described in this paper were identified through a series of extensive brainstorming workshops, collectively titled MADNESS (Mapping for Aviation Driven by Needs Emergence and Satiating Society). These workshops engaged NASA civil servants and contractors with diverse backgrounds through a facilitated process of future scenario development and critique. The participants were led through exercises focused on a time horizon spanning from 2022 to 2072 and on problems that aviation might solve and or create during this period. From the broad results, two patterns of critical uncertainty emerged: “availability” (scarcity versus abundance) and “transparency” (openness versus security and privacy). The successful iteration and ideation across the MADNESS workshops also suggests a repeatable mechanism for strategic risk exploration across a variety of NASA and industry stakeholders.

Mapping↗

Human-AI Collaboration Among Engineering and Design Professionals: Three Strategies of Generative AI Use

Designers are increasingly using Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) in design processes; however, knowing how designers use GenAI--especially in professional design practice--is under-explored. This paper presents an ethnographic study of a design team at NASA that explores the natural variation of GenAI use across team members during a speculative design workflow. We aimed to uncover when, how, and why GenAI tools were or were not employed using ethnographic observations to map the team's speculative design process and follow-up interviews to provide deeper insights into team members' interactions (or lackthereof) with GenAI. Through inductive qualitative coding, our analysis revealed three strategies of GenAI use observed among professional engineers and designers--intimate co-design with GenAI, selective delegation to GenAI, and minimal use of GenAI--as well as factors that appeared to influence their decisions whether or not to use GenAI. This study proposes new theory in human-AI collaboration that sheds light on the strategies, rationale, and circumstances under which design professionals use GenAI. Future work that builds upon these insights include examining a larger sample size of engineering and design professionals in uncontrolled design process experiences and exploring the impact that design tasks, goals, and constraints have on a participants decision to leverage GenAI tools.

design practice↗