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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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36 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Airborne and spaceborne radar images for geologic and environmental mapping in the Amazon rain forest, Brazil

Spaceborne and airborne radar image of portions of the Middle and Upper Amazon basin in the state of Amazonas and the Territory of Roraima are compared for purposes of geological and environmental mapping. The contrasted illumination geometries and imaging parameters are related to terrain slope and surface roughness characteristics for corresponding areas that were covered by each of the radar imaging systems. Landforms range from deeply dissected mountain and plateau with relief up to 500 m in Roraima, revealing ancient layered rocks through folded residual mountains to deeply beveled pediplain in Amazonas. Geomorphic features provide distinct textural signatures that are characteristic of different rock associations. The principle drainages in the areas covered are the Rio Negro, Rio Branco, and the Rio Japura. Shadowing effects and low radar sensitivity to subtle linear fractures that are aligned parallel or nearly parallel to the direction of radar illumination illustrate the need to obtain multiple coverage with viewing directions about 90 degrees. Perception of standing water and alluvial forest in floodplains varies with incident angle and with season. Multitemporal data sets acquired over periods of years provide an ideal method of monitoring environmental changes.

Ford, John P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Mechanisms of nitrogen retention in forest ecosystems - A field experiment

Intensive forest management led to elevated losses of nitrogen from a recently harvested loblolly pine plantation in North Carolina. Measurements of nitrogen-15 retention in the field demonstrated that microbial uptake of nitrogen during the decomposition of residual organic material was the most important process retaining nitrogen. Management practices that remove this material cause increased losses of nitrogen to aquatic ecosystems and the atmosphere.

Vitousek, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Region

A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation greenness from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2002. The NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model estimates of annual forest production were used for the first time as the basis to generate a prediction for the standing pool of carbon in above-ground biomass (AGB; gC/sq m) for forested areas of the Brazilian Amazon region. Plot-level measurements of the residence time of carbon in wood in Amazon forest from Malhi et al. (2006) were interpolated by inverse distance weighting algorithms and used with CASA to generate a new regional map of AGB. Data from the Brazilian PRODES (Estimativa do Desflorestamento da Amazonia) project were used to map deforested areas. Results show that net primary production (NPP) sinks for carbon varied between 4.25 Pg C/yr (1 Pg=10(exp 15)g) and 4.34 Pg C for the region and were highest across the eastern and northern Amazon areas, whereas deforestation sources of CO2 flux from decomposition of residual woody debris were higher and less seasonal in the central Amazon than in the eastern and southern areas. Increased woody debris from past deforestation events was predicted to alter the net ecosystem carbon balance of the Amazon region to generate annual CO2 source fluxes at least two times higher than previously predicted by CASA modeling studies. Variations in climate, land cover, and forest burning were predicted to release carbon at rates of 0.5 to 1 Pg C/yr from the Brazilian Amazon. When direct deforestation emissions of CO2 from forest burning of between 0.2 and 0.6 Pg C/yr in the Legal Amazon are overlooked in regional budgets, the year-to-year variations in this net biome flux may appear to be large, whereas our model results implies net biome fluxes had actually been relatively consistent from year to year during the period 2000-2002. This is the first study to use MODIS data to model all carbon pools (wood, leaf, root) dynamically in simulations of Amazon forest deforestation from clearing and burning of all kinds.

Potter, C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Optimization of a Remote Sensing Energy Balance Method over Different Canopy Applied at Global Scale

Parameterization methods which calculate turbulent heat and water fluxes with thermal remote sensing data were evaluated in the revised remote sensing surface energy balance system (SEBS) model (Chen et al., 2013). The model calculates sensible heat (H) based on the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and determines latent heat (LE) as the residual of energy balance. We examined the uncertainties of H and LE in the SEBS model due to five key parameters at the local station point scale. Observations at 27 flux towers located in seven land cover types (needle-leaf forest, broad leaf forest, shrub, savanna, grassland, cropland, and sparsely vegetated land) and an artificial intelligence particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was combined to calibrate the five parameters (leaf drag coefficient, leaf heat transfer coefficients, roughness length for soil, and two parameters for ground heat calculation) in the SEBS model. The root-mean-square error at the site scale was reduced by 9 W/sq.m for H, and 92 W/sq.m for LE, and their correlation coefficients were increased by 0.07 (H) and 0.11 (LE) after using the calibrated parameters. The updated model validation was further conducted globally for the remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) calculations. Overestimation of SEBS global ET was significantly improved by using the optimized values of the parameters. The results suggested PSO was able to consistently locate the global optimum of the SEBS model, and appears to be capable of solving the ET model optimization problem.

Chen, Xuelong↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Test of Sensitivity to Convective Transport in a Global Atmospheric CO2 Simulation

Two approximations to convective transport have been implemented in an offline chemistry transport model (CTM) to explore the impact on calculated atmospheric CO2 distributions. GlobalCO2 in the year 2000 is simulated using theCTM driven by assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA s Goddard Earth Observation System Data Assimilation System, Version 4 (GEOS-4). The model simulates atmospheric CO2 by adopting the same CO2 emission inventory and dynamical modules as described in Kawa et al. (convective transport scheme denoted as Conv1). Conv1 approximates the convective transport by using the bulk convective mass fluxes to redistribute trace gases. The alternate approximation, Conv2, partitions fluxes into updraft and downdraft, as well as into entrainment and detrainment, and has potential to yield a more realistic simulation of vertical redistribution through deep convection. Replacing Conv1 by Conv2 results in an overestimate of CO2 over biospheric sink regions. The largest discrepancies result in a CO2 difference of about 7.8 ppm in the July NH boreal forest, which is about 30% of the CO2 seasonality for that area. These differences are compared to those produced by emission scenario variations constrained by the framework of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to account for possible land use change and residual terrestrial CO2 sink. It is shown that the overestimated CO2 driven by Conv2 can be offset by introducing these supplemental emissions.

Bian, H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Extension of laboratory-measured soil spectra to field conditions

Spectral responses of two glaciated soils, Chalmers silty clay loam and Fincastle silt loam, formed under prairie grass and forest vegetation, respectively, were measured in the laboratory under controlled moisture equilibria using an Exotech Model 20C spectroradiometer to obtain spectral data in the laboratory under artificial illumination. The same spectroradiometer was used outdoors under solar illumination to obtain spectral response from dry and moistened field plots with and without corn residue cover, representing the two different soils. Results indicate that laboratory-measured spectra of moist soil are directly proportional to the spectral response of that same field-measured moist bare soil over the 0.52 micrometer to 1.75 micrometer wavelength range. The magnitudes of difference in spectral response between identically treated Chalmers and Fincastle soils are greatest in the 0.6 micrometers to 0.8 micrometer transition region between the visible and near infrared, regardless of field condition or laboratory preparation studied.

Stoner, E. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Calibrated imaging radar polarimetry - Technique, examples, and applications

The authors developed a calibration procedure for imaging radar polarimeters and applied it to a set of images acquired by the NASA DC-8 multifrequency radar system. The technique requires the use of ground reflectors known cross-section for absolute calibration, that is, solution for sigma exp 0; however, the image data themselves can usually provide all information necessary for phase calibration and for antenna crosstalk correction. The accuracy of the approach, as measured by calculating the cross-section residuals of known targets in each calibrated scene, is on the order of +/- 1-2 dB at P- and C-band, but improves to +/- 0.5 dB at L-band. The authors present the results of applying this technique to radar scenes of lava flows of varying roughness, temperate and tropical rain forests, and ocean water surfaces. They also present several example applications which are feasible with calibrated data but which would be difficult to implement with uncalibrated data.

Zebker, Howard A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Evoluation of Landsat-4 image quality for the interpretation of forest, agricultural and soil resources

Landsat-4 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor performance is being evaluated through the analysis of images generated by computer-compatible tape data and commercially available film products. Natural targets are used to evaluate spectral variability, spatial resolution, radiometric sensitivity, and geometric fidelity. Spectral characteristics are being evaluated through the interpretation of the image tone and texture variability of known features, while spatial characteristics are evaluated through lineal and areal estimates of similar features and the plotting and analysis of residual errors derived from regressions between relative image coordinates and map coordinates.

Degloria, S. D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Multitemporal diurnal AVIRIS images of a forested ecosystem

Both physiological and ecosystem structural information may be derived from diurnal images. Structural information may be inferred from changes in canopy shadows between images and from changes in spectral composition due to changes in proportions of subpixel mixing resulting from the differences in sun/view angles. Physiological processes having diurnal scales also may be measurable if a stable basis for spectral comparison can be established. Six diurnal images of an area east of Mt. Shasta, CA were acquired on 22 Sep. 1989. This unique diurnal data set provided an opportunity to test the consistency of endmember fractions and residuals. It was expected that shade endmember abundances would show the greatest change as lighting geometry changed and less change in the normalized fractional proportion of other endmembers. Diurnal changes in spectral features related to physiological characteristics may be identifiable as changes in wavelength specific residuals.

Ustin, Susan L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Investigation to develop a multistage forest sampling inventory system using ERTS-1 imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. Two strips of U-2 RC-10 images were analytically triangulated and adjusted. Control points and pass points were marked on glass plates made from B&W copy negatives of IR color transparencies. A wild PUG-3 and TA1/p monocomparator were used to mark and measure the points on the glass plates. Each plate was measured twice in the same orientation for a check on accuracy and operator error. The 22 photographs were adjusted to 41 ground control and tie points and the block adjustment was performed in a secant plane coordinate system to eliminate the effect of earth curvature. Standard deviations of the residuals of the control and tie points were 12.8 m, 10.8 m, and 4.5 m for the X, Y, and Z coordinates respectively. The 12.8 m and 10.8 m figures correspond to an identification accuracy of 0.1 mm on the U-2 RC-10 plates. The standard deviations of the residuals encountered in the ERTS-1 resectioning were: (1) 0.16 mm assuming uncorrected perspective geometry and (2) 0.12 mm when the polynomial adjustment was added in. These results indicate a reduction of 0.11 in the square error due to the polynomial adjustment.

Langley, P. G.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Global Assessment of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product Using Assimilation Diagnostics

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with approx. 2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of approx. 0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under approx. 3 K), the soil moisture increments (under approx. 0.01 cu m/cu m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under approx. 1 K). Typical instantaneous values are approx. 6 K for O-F residuals, approx. 0.01 (approx. 0.003) cu m/cu m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and approx. 0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.

Reichle, Rolf↗
NASA NTRS2018

Using Data Assimilation Diagnostics to Assess the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with approx.2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of approx. 0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under approx. 3 K), the soil moisture increments (under approx. 0.01 cu m/cu m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under approx. 1 K). Typical instantaneous values are approx. 6 K for O-F residuals, approx. 0.01 (approx. 0.003) cu m/cu m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and approx. 0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.

SMAP↗
NASA NTRS1982

Error norms for the adaptive solution of the Navier-Stokes equations

The adaptive solution of the Navier-Stokes equations depends upon the successful interaction of three key elements: (1) the ability to flexibly select grid length scales in composite grids, (2) the ability to efficiently control residual error in composite grids, and (3) the ability to define reliable, convenient error norms to guide the grid adjustment and optimize the residual levels relative to the local truncation errors. An initial investigation was conducted to explore how to approach developing these key elements. Conventional error assessment methods were defined and defect and deferred correction methods were surveyed. The one dimensional potential equation was used as a multigrid test bed to investigate how to achieve successful interaction of these three key elements.

Forester, C. K.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Hyperspectral Remote Sensing of Foliar Nitrogen Content

A strong positive correlation between vegetation canopy bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) in the near infrared (NIR) spectral region and foliar mass-based nitrogen concentration (%N) has been reported in some temperate and boreal forests. This relationship, if true, would indicate an additional role for nitrogen in the climate system via its influence on surface albedo and may offer a simple approach for monitoring foliar nitrogen using satellite data. We report, however, that the previously reported correlation is an artifact - it is a consequence of variations in canopy structure, rather than of %N. The data underlying this relationship were collected at sites with varying proportions of foliar nitrogen-poor needleleaf and nitrogen-rich broadleaf species, whose canopy structure differs considerably. When the BRF data are corrected for canopy-structure effects, the residual reflectance variations are negatively related to %N at all wavelengths in the interval 423-855 nm. This suggests that the observed positive correlation between BRF and %N conveys no information about %N. We find that to infer leaf biochemical constituents, e.g., N content, from remotely sensed data, BRF spectra in the interval 710-790 nm provide critical information for correction of structural influences. Our analysis also suggests that surface characteristics of leaves impact remote sensing of its internal constituents. This further decreases the ability to remotely sense canopy foliar nitrogen. Finally, the analysis presented here is generic to the problem of remote sensing of leaf-tissue constituents and is therefore not a specific critique of articles espousing remote sensing of foliar %N.

Knyazikhin, Yuri↗
NASA NTRS1994

Airborne boundary layer flux measurements of trace species over Canadian boreal forest and northern wetland regions

Airborne heat, moisture, O3, CO, and CH4 flux measurements were obtained over the Hudson Bay lowlands (HBL) and northern boreal forest regions of Canada during July - August 1990. The airborne flux measurements were an integral part of the NASA/Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B field experiment executed in collaboration with the Canadian Northern Wetlands Study (NOWES). Airborne CH4 flux measurements were taken over a large portion of the HBL. The surface level flux of CH4 was obtained from downward extrapolations of multiple-level CH4 flux measurements. Methane source strengths ranged from -1 to 31 mg m(exp -2)/d, with the higher values occurring in relatively small, isolated areas. Similar measurements of the CH4 source strength in the boreal forest region of Schefferville, Quebec, ranged from 6 to 27 mg m(exp -2)/d and exhibited a diurnal dependence. The CH4 source strengths found during the ABLE 3B expedition were much lower than the seasonally averaged source strength of 51 mg m(exp -2)/d found for the Yukon-Kuskokwim delta region of Alaska during the previous ABLE 3A study. Large positive CO fluxes (0.31 to 0.53 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) m/s) were observed over the inland, forested regions of the HBL study area, although the mechanism for the generation of these fluxes was not identified. Repetitive measurements along the same ground track at various times of day near the Schefferville site also suggested a diurnal dependence for CO emissions. Measurements of surface resistance to the uptake of O3 (1.91 to 0.80 s/cm) for the HBL areas investigated were comparable to those observed near the Schefferville site (3.40 to 1.10 s/cm). Surface resistance values for the ABLE 3B study area were somewhat less than those observed over the Yukon-Kuskokwim delta during the previous ABLE 3A study. The budgets for heat, moisture, O3, CO, and CH4 were evaluated. The residuals from these budget studies indicated, for the cases selected, a moderate net photochemical production of O3 present in the boundary layer over the HBL that coincided with an in situ destruction of CO, although the mechanism responsible for the destruction of CO was not identified. Results from the O3 budget analysis indicate the importance of in situ photochemical production and its possible dominance over surface deposition to the local O3 budget at the Schefferville site. Measurements of the in situ production of O3 indicated a direct relationship between the presence of biomass burning or large-scale pollution effects. Residuals from budget calculations for conserved quantities (heat, moisture, and CH4) were compared with their respective surface fluxes to provide a measure of the internal self-consistency of the flux measurements.

Ritter, John A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Agricultural Fires in the Southeastern U.S. During SEAC4RS: Emissions of Trace Gases and Particles and Evolution of Ozone, Reactive Nitrogen, and Organic Aerosol

Emissions from 15 agricultural fires in the southeastern U.S. were measured from the NASA DC-8 research aircraft during the summer 2013 Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) campaign. This study reports a detailed set of emission factors (EFs) for 25 trace gases and 6 fine particle species. The chemical evolution of the primary emissions in seven plumes was examined in detail for ~1.2 h. A Lagrangian plume cross-section model was used to simulate the evolution of ozone (O3), reactive nitrogen species, and organic aerosol (OA). Observed EFs are generally consistent with previous measurements of crop residue burning, but the fires studied here emitted high amounts of SO2 and fine particles, especially primary OA and chloride. Filter-based measurements of aerosol light absorption implied that brown carbon (BrC) was ubiquitous in the plumes. In aged plumes, rapid production of O3, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), and nitrate was observed with (Delta)O3/(Delta)CO, (Delta)PAN/(Delta)NOy, and (Delta)nitrate/(Delta)NOy reaching approx. 0.1, approx. 0.3, and approx.0.3. For five selected cases, the model reasonably simulated O3 formation but underestimated PAN formation. No significant evolution of OA mass or BrC absorption was observed. However, a consistent increase in oxygen-to-carbon (O/C) ratios of OA indicated that OA oxidation in the agricultural fire plumes was much faster than in urban and forest fire plumes. Finally, total annual SO2, NOx, and CO emissions from agricultural fires in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri were estimated (within a factor of approx. 2) to be equivalent to approx. 2% SO2 from coal combustion and approx. 1% NOx and approx. 9% CO from mobile sources.

OA mass or BrC absorption↗
NASA NTRS2012

Remote Sensing of Tropical Ecosystems: Atmospheric Correction and Cloud Masking Matter

Tropical rainforests are significant contributors to the global cycles of energy, water and carbon. As a result, monitoring of the vegetation status over regions such as Amazonia has been a long standing interest of Earth scientists trying to determine the effect of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the tropical ecosystems and its feedback on the Earth's climate. Satellite-based remote sensing is the only practical approach for observing the vegetation dynamics of regions like the Amazon over useful spatial and temporal scales, but recent years have seen much controversy over satellite-derived vegetation states in Amazônia, with studies predicting opposite feedbacks depending on data processing technique and interpretation. Recent results suggest that some of this uncertainty could stem from a lack of quality in atmospheric correction and cloud screening. In this paper, we assess these uncertainties by comparing the current standard surface reflectance products (MYD09, MYD09GA) and derived composites (MYD09A1, MCD43A4 and MYD13A2 - Vegetation Index) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite to results obtained from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm. MAIAC uses a new cloud screening technique, and novel aerosol retrieval and atmospheric correction procedures which are based on time-series and spatial analyses. Our results show considerable improvements of MAIAC processed surface reflectance compared to MYD09/MYD13 with noise levels reduced by a factor of up to 10. Uncertainties in the current MODIS surface reflectance product were mainly due to residual cloud and aerosol contamination which affected the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): During the wet season, with cloud cover ranging between 90 percent and 99 percent, conventionally processed NDVI was significantly depressed due to undetected clouds. A smaller reduction in NDVI due to increased aerosol levels was observed during the dry season, with an inverse dependence of NDVI on aerosol optical thickness (AOT). NDVI observations processed with MAIAC showed highly reproducible and stable inter-annual patterns with little or no dependence on cloud cover, and no significant dependence on AOT (p less than 0.05). In addition to a better detection of cloudy pixels, MAIAC obtained about 20-80 percent more cloud free pixels, depending on season, a considerable amount for land analysis given the very high cloud cover (75-99 percent) observed at any given time in the area. We conclude that a new generation of atmospheric correction algorithms, such as MAIAC, can help to dramatically improve vegetation estimates over tropical rain forest, ultimately leading to reduced uncertainties in satellite-derived vegetation products globally.

tropical ecosystems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate change reshapes the drivers of false spring risk across European trees

Temperate and boreal forests are shaped by late spring freezing events after budburst, which are also known as false springs. Research has generated conflicting results on whether or not these events will change with climate change, potentially because---to date---no study has compared the myriad climatic and geographic factors that contribute to a plant's risk of a false spring. We assessed and compared the strength of the effects of mean spring temperature, distance from the coast, elevation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using PEP725 leafout data for six temperate, decidious tree species across 11,648 sites in Central Europe and how these predictors shifted with climate change. Across species before recent warming, mean spring temperature and distance from the coast were the strongest predictors, with higher mean spring temperatures associated with decreased risk in false springs (–7.64% per 2°C increase) and sites further from the coast experiencing an increased risk (5.32% per 150km from the coast). Elevation (2.23% per 200m increase in elevation) and NAO index (1.91% per 0.3 increase) also increased false spring risk. With climate change, elevation and distance from coast---i.e., the geographic factors---remain relatively stable, while climatic factors shifted in magnitude for mean spring temperature (down to -2.84% in risk per 2°C), and in direction, with positive NAO phases leading to lower risk (-9.15% per 0.3). The residual effects of climate change---unexplained by the climatic and geographic factors already included in the model---magnified the species-level variation in risk, with risk increasing among early-leafout species (i.e., Aesculus hippocastanum, Alnus glutinosa and Betula pendula) but a decline or no change in risk among late-leafout species (i.e., Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior and Quercus robur). Our results show that climate change has reshaped the major drivers of false spring risk and highlight how considering multiple factors can yield a better understanding of the complexities of climate change.

Climate change↗