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DOE OSTI2022

Stand and environmental conditions drive functional shifts associated with mesophication in eastern US forests

There is a growing body of evidence that mesic tree species are increasing in importance across much of the eastern US. This increase is often observed in tandem with a decrease in the abundance and importance of species considered to be better adapted to disturbance and drier conditions (e.g., Quercus species). Concern over this transition is related to several factors, including the potential that this transition is self-reinforcing (termed “mesophication”), will result in decreased resiliency of forests to a variety of disturbances, and may negatively impact ecosystem functioning, timber value, and wildlife habitat. Evidence for shifts in composition provide broad-scale support for mesophication, but we lack information on the fine-scale factors that drive the associated functional changes. Understanding this variability is particularly important as managers work to develop site-and condition-specific management practices to target stands or portions of the landscape where this transition is occurring or is likely to occur in the future. To address this knowledge gap and identify forests that are most susceptible to mesophication (which we evaluate as a functional shift to less drought or fire tolerant, or more shade tolerant, forests), we used data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program to determine what fine-scale factors impact the rate (change through time) and degree (difference between the overstory and midstory) of change in eastern US forests. We found that mesophication varies along stand and environmental gradients, but this relationship depended on the functional trait examined. For example, shade and drought tolerance suggest mesophication is greatest at sites with more acidic soils, while fire tolerance suggests mesophication increases with soil pH. Mesophication was also generally more pronounced in older stands, stands with more variable diameters, and in wetter sites, but plots categorized as “hydric” were often highly variable. Our results provide evidence that stand-scale conditions impact current and potential future changes in trait conditions and composition across eastern US forests. We provide a starting point for managers looking to prioritize portions of the landscape most at risk and developing treatments to address the compositional and functional changes associated with mesophication.

Woodbridge, Margaret↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tree Canopies Reflect Mycorrhizal Composition

Mycorrhizae alter global patterns of CO 2 fertilization, carbon storage, and elemental cycling, yet knowledge of their global distributions is currently limited by the availability of forest inventory data. Here, we show that maps of tree-mycorrhizal associations (hereafter “mycorrhizal maps”) can be improved by the novel technology of imaging spectroscopy because mycorrhizal signatures propagate up from plant roots to impact forest canopy chemistry. We analyzed measurements from 143 airborne imaging spectroscopy surveys over 112,975 individual trees collected across 13 years. Results show remarkable accuracy in capturing ground truth observations of mycorrhizal associations from canopy signals across disparate landscapes (R 2 = 0.92, p < 0.01). Additionally, upcoming imaging spectroscopy satellite missions can reveal new insights into landscape-scale variations in water, nitrogen, phosphorus, carotenoid/anthocyanin, and cellulose/lignin composition. Applied globally, this approach could improve the spatial precision of mycorrhizal distributions by a factor of roughly 104 and facilitate the incorporation of dynamic shifts in forest composition into Earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Alternative stable states of the forest mycobiome are maintained through positive feedbacks

Most trees on Earth form a symbiosis with either arbuscular mycorrhizal or ectomycorrhizal fungi. By forming common mycorrhizal networks, actively modifying the soil environment and other ecological mechanisms, these contrasting symbioses may generate positive feedbacks that favour their own mycorrhizal strategy (that is, the con-mycorrhizal strategy) at the expense of the alternative strategy. Positive con-mycorrhizal feedbacks set the stage for alternative stable states of forests and their fungi, where the presence of different forest mycorrhizal strategies is determined not only by external environmental conditions but also mycorrhiza-mediated feedbacks embedded within the forest ecosystem. Here, in this work, we test this hypothesis using thousands of US forest inventory sites to show that arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal tree recruitment and survival exhibit positive con-mycorrhizal density dependence. Data-driven simulations show that these positive feedbacks are sufficient in magnitude to generate and maintain alternative stable states of the forest mycobiome. Given the links between forest mycorrhizal strategy and carbon sequestration potential, the presence of mycorrhizal-mediated alternative stable states affects how we forecast forest composition, carbon sequestration and terrestrial climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Mycorrhizal Carbon Costs in Temperate Forests: The Impacts of Functional Diversity and Global Change Factors

Mycorrhizal fungi form symbiotic relationships with most plant species, facilitating nutrient acquisition while consuming a significant fraction of the plant's photosynthetic carbon (C), which we define as the mycorrhizal C cost. Drivers of the mycorrhizal C cost, which is crucial for predicting environmental impacts on plant productivity, remain under-explored and difficult to quantify. Ecosystem models that incorporate mycorrhizae can offer insights into mycorrhizal C cost dynamics, but their predictions have rarely been validated against empirical data. Here, in this study, we used the Myco-CORPSE model, which explicitly simulates mycorrhizal processes alongside soil carbon and nitrogen cycling, to investigate the drivers of mycorrhizal C cost in temperate forests. Applying this model to over 1,800 forest inventory plots across the eastern United States, we found that the simulations matched published data, showing higher C allocation to ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi (16.0% of net primary production (NPP)) compared to arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi (5.8% of NPP). Further analysis showed that mixed forests, co-dominated by both AM and ECM trees, allocated less C to mycorrhizal fungi compared to forests dominated by either AM or ECM fungi alone, due to complementary nutrient acquisition strategies. Elevated Nitrogen (N) deposition and higher temperatures reduce mycorrhizal C costs, favoring AM strategies. Conversely, elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) increased plant N demand and mycorrhizal C costs, favoring ECM strategies that access organic N sources. These findings underscore the critical role of mycorrhizal functional diversity in plant nutrient acquisition and C dynamics, providing new insights into how mycorrhizal symbioses respond to global change.

Shao, Siya [Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH (United↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mycorrhizal nutrient acquisition strategies shape tree competition and coexistence dynamics

Mycorrhizal fungi with different nutrient acquisition strategies influence plant species performance and physiology, thereby defining their trophic niche. This might drive resource competition dynamics that cumulatively impact tree species coexistence, but few manipulative experiments have directly tested this. Combining surveys and experiments in a modern coexistence theory framework, we tested how variation in mycorrhizal strategies and nutrient conditions affects plant competitive outcomes. We focused on two genera of co-occurring tree species with different mycorrhizal states: Acer (arbuscular mycorrhizal, AM) and Populus (dual mycorrhizal, but often considered predominantly ectomycorrhizal, EM). The EM and AM fungal responsiveness in Populus species varied with latitude and nitrogen (N) limitation. Host-specific soil microbiome conditioning and inorganic N fertilization combined to qualitatively affect coexistence outcomes. Lower N conditions favoured Populus over Acer trees, and N fertilization reversed this outcome for southern species, aligning with regional-scale forest mycorrhizal transitions. Results from the coexistence experiment also predict competitive exclusion between the tree species pairs, which could arise, in part, from their mycorrhizal differences and is consistent with alternative stable states in dominant forest mycorrhizal strategies. Such bistability appears in natural systems as a bimodal distribution of Populus vs. Acer tree species dominance using long-term forest inventory data. Synthesis: The magnitude and outcome of microbially mediated competition between Populus and Acer depends on soil nutrient availability, which likely relates to their mycorrhizal differentiation. These findings support the importance of mycorrhizal symbioses for contributing to large-scale biogeographical patterns of tree species trophic niche separation across soil resource gradients and bistability in forest mycorrhizal structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated

The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (E LUC ) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, in this work, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that E LUC in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO 2 removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average E LUC was -0.14 Pg C yr -1 , accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prospects for silvicultural enhancement of fire resistance in mesic westside forests of the Pacific Northwest

Increasing wildfire activity in mesic, temperate Pacific Northwest forests west of the Cascade Range crest has stimulated interest in understanding whether alternative forest management practices could reduce risk of stand-replacing fire. To explore how management can enhance fire resistance in these forests and assess tradeoffs among resistance enhancement, carbon sequestration and storage, and economic returns, we conducted 40-year simulations of stand development with BioSum, a framework for conducting landscape analysis with the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), utilizing a statistically representative and spatially balanced sample of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots. Simulation outcomes under business-as-usual silviculture were contrasted with fire-aware silviculture, and treatment optimization logic was developed and applied to represent landscape-scale outcomes under business-as-usual and fire-focused management scenarios. Simulation results indicate that fire-aware prescriptions and fire-focused management can meaningfully enhance stand- and landscape-scale fire resistance of westside forests under less than extreme fire weather, but at the cost of lower economic returns and reduced net carbon storage and sequestration over the 40-year analysis window. Shifting from business-as-usual regeneration harvests with short rotations to fire-aware, episodic selection harvest improved fire resistance the most, especially in young privately-owned forests, and with only modest tradeoffs in carbon and economic outcomes. While fire-aware treatments generally reduced net present value from forest operations over business-as-usual, most treatments still generated positive net present value and could be implemented without subsidy. Fire-aware prescriptions that removed and utilized non-merchantable harvest residues instead of burning them, via either pile or broadcast burning, partially mitigated carbon emissions associated with fire-aware treatments, with about the same improvement in fire resistance. Given the currently limited institutional and financial capacity to implement fire resistance enhancing treatments at scale, the insights from this analysis may aid managers seeking to elevate fire resistance to prioritize where and how to manage.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recovery of Forest Structure Following Large-Scale Windthrows in the Northwestern Amazon

The dynamics of forest recovery after windthrows (i.e., broken or uprooted trees by wind) are poorly understood in tropical forests. The Northwestern Amazon (NWA) is characterized by a higher occurrence of windthrows, greater rainfall, and higher annual tree mortality rates (~2%) than the Central Amazon (CA). We combined forest inventory data from three sites in the Iquitos region of Peru, with recovery periods spanning 2, 12, and 22 years following windthrow events. Study sites and sampling areas were selected by assessing the windthrow severity using remote sensing. At each site, we recorded all trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 10 cm along transects, capturing the range of windthrow severity from old-growth to highly disturbed (mortality > 60%) forest. Across all damage classes, tree density and basal area recovered to >90% of the old-growth values after 20 years. Aboveground biomass (AGB) in old-growth forest was 380 (±156) Mg ha -1 . In extremely disturbed areas, AGB was still reduced to 163 (±68) Mg ha -1 after 2 years and 323 (± 139) Mg ha -1 after 12 years. This recovery rate is ~50% faster than that reported for Central Amazon forests. The faster recovery of forest structure in our study region may be a function of its higher productivity and adaptability to more frequent and severe windthrows. These varying rates of recovery highlight the importance of extreme wind and rainfall on shaping gradients of forest structure in the Amazon, and the different vulnerabilities of these forests to natural disturbances whose severity and frequency are being altered by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Growth–Mortality Coordination Differs Among Xerophytic Versus Mesophytic Tree Species During Severe Drought

ABSTRACT Forest composition is changing, yet the consequences for terrestrial carbon cycling are unclear. In the eastern United States, water‐demanding “mesophytic” tree species are replacing “xerophytic” oaks (Quercusspp.) and hickories (Caryaspp.), raising concerns that forest productivity will become increasingly sensitive to more frequent and severe drought conditions predicted for the region. However, we have a limited understanding of the extent to which the mortality risk of xerophytes versus mesophytes is coordinated with their growth sensitivity during drought. Here, we evaluated growth and mortality dynamics for 20 abundant eastern United States tree species following a severe drought in the summer of 2012. We synthesized data from ~4500 forest inventory plots and used an approach that quantified relative drought responses between co‐located trees to minimize impacts from environmental heterogeneity. We found that mesophytes were just as likely to perish as co‐occurring xerophytes but were more sensitive to drought in terms of diminished growth. These findings suggest that xerophytic decline is likely to lead to reduced carbon uptake during drought and that management efforts to conserve oak‐hickory stands will be decisive to sustain the carbon mitigation potential of these forests. However, we also found that growth‐mortality relationships differed between functional groups. Among xerophytes, growth and survival during drought were decoupled. Among mesophytes, there was a high degree of coordination, where species that experienced greater mortality also experienced greater growth reductions. Therefore, mesophytes with high growth sensitivity to water deficits are likely to be the most vulnerable to drought‐driven die‐off events moving forward.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forest tree growth is linked to mycorrhizal fungal composition and function across Europe

Most trees form symbioses with ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) which influence access to growth-limiting soil resources. Mesocosm experiments repeatedly show that EMF species differentially affect plant development, yet whether these effects ripple up to influence the growth of entire forests remains unknown. Here we tested the effects of EMF composition and functional genes relative to variation in well-known drivers of tree growth by combining paired molecular EMF surveys with high-resolution forest inventory data across 15 European countries. We show that EMF composition was linked to a three-fold difference in tree growth rate even when controlling for the primary abiotic drivers of tree growth. Fast tree growth was associated with EMF communities harboring high inorganic but low organic nitrogen acquisition gene proportions and EMF which form contact versus medium-distance fringe exploration types. These findings suggest that EMF composition is a strong bio-indicator of underlying drivers of tree growth and/or that variation of forest EMF communities causes differences in tree growth. While it may be too early to assign causality or directionality, our study is one of the first to link fine-scale variation within a key component of the forest microbiome to ecosystem functioning at a continental scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tree Diversity, Site Index, and Carbon Storage Decrease With Aridity in Douglas-Fir Forests in Western Canada

Forests are important for biodiversity, timber production and carbon accumulation, but these ecosystem services may be impacted by climate change. Field data collected from individual forest types occurring across a climatic gradient can contribute to forecasting these consequences. We examined how changes in temperature, precipitation and aridity affect ecosystem services in 23 mature Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests in nine climatic regions across a 900 km gradient in British Columbia, Canada. Using Canadian National Forest Inventory methodology, we assessed richness and diversity of plant functional groups, site index, and above- and below-ground carbon stocks. As aridity increased, ecosystem-level tree species richness declined on average from four to one species, Douglas-fir site index declined from 30 to 15 m, and ecosystem carbon storage decreased from 565 to 222 Mg ha –1 . Tree species richness was positively and herb species richness negatively correlated with carbon storage. Carbon storage by ecosystem compartment was largest in aboveground live tree biomass, declining in the following order: mineral soils > coarse woody debris and dead standing trees > forest floor > small and fine woody debris > understory plants. Mineral soil carbon at depths of 0-15 cm, 15-35 cm, and 35-55 cm increased with increasing mean annual precipitation and decreasing aridity. Our results indicate that as aridity increases and precipitation decreases, tree species richness, site index and carbon storage in existing Douglas-fir forests declines. However, assisted or natural migration of Douglas-fir into more humid regions could be associated with more diverse, productive, carbon-rich forests. This study informs carbon stock vulnerability and provides empirical data essential for carbon stock forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the historical deforestation of an ecoregion in the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined regional forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m -2 ), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of this greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture can provide -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m -2 of climate mitigation over a 100-year time period while short/medium length forestry rotations can provide more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m -2 and natural forest regeneration can provide the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m -2 . As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Myco-CORPSE simulations assessing mycorrhizal carbon allocation across U.S. forests and global change scenarios

Plants allocate a substantial portion of their fixed carbon belowground to mycorrhizal fungi in exchange for nutrients and other benefits. However, most current ecosystem models omit mycorrhizal processes, limiting our ability to predict plant–soil carbon dynamics under environmental change. To address this gap, we used a mycorrhiza-explicit soil biogeochemical model, Myco-CORPSE (Mycorrhizal Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment), to simulate tree carbon allocation to arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi in temperate forests.The dataset includes outputs from two sets of model simulations:1. Perturbation experiments: Simulations across gradients of ECM dominance (0–100%), nitrogen deposition, soil temperature, and net primary productivity (NPP) to test how these factors affect mycorrhizal C allocation and nutrient cycling.2. FIA-based simulations: Model applications to over 1,800 U.S. forest sites using site-specific data from the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, including vegetation composition, mycorrhizal type, climate, litter traits, soil properties, and N deposition.Model outputs include simulated mycorrhizal carbon allocation and related biogeochemical variables, such as soil and microbial carbon and nitrogen stocks. Data are provided in CSV format and organized by experiment type (in separate ZIP files). Python scripts for running simulations, plotting, and spatial mapping are also included and organized similarly. No proprietary software is required. These outputs support a peer-reviewed study and were used to generate figures and tables in the associated publication.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO 2

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO 2 ] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO 2 -responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO 2 ]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. In this work, we synthesise theory and broad, multi-disciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO 2 ] (iCO 2 ) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industry. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO 2 is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO 2 -responses are high in comparison with experiments and theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO 2 -responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO 2 , albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Decision Support System

Forest-based value chains involve decisions that begin at the landscape level and extend through processing, product manufacturing, and end-use markets. However, these decisions are often made independently across sectors, with limited visibility into how upstream resource conditions, incentives, and land management choices influence downstream production systems. In forested regions of the United States, wildfire risk, fragmented ownership, and uncertain markets for low-value residues complicate efforts to align extraction, processing, and utilization decisions. Without tools that link these stages, stakeholders may overlook opportunities to improve resource utilization or inadvertently shift impacts elsewhere in the value chain. This repository introduces a decision support system (DSS) that applies a system-impact-analysis approach to forest biomass residues and co-products. The framework integrates forest inventory data, geospatial resource assessments, and economic modeling to evaluate how biomass extraction decisions influence downstream product pathways. By linking regional feedstock avail- ability with market incentives and processing options—such as fuels, wood products, or soil amendments like biochar—the tool allows decision-makers to compare value chain outcomes across multiple utilization strategies.

Davis, Maggie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗