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Absolute Decay Counting of $$^{146}$$Sm and $$^{147}$$Sm for Early Solar System Chronology

Sm-Nd chronometers use 146 Sm and 147 Sm to determine the ages of major events in the early Solar System. Their half-lives are the most important nuclear parameters deter mining the accuracy of chronometry. However, the 146 Sm half-life is not well-established: the published values differ by ~30%, which results in significant uncertainties in the So lar System timeline. We are re-measuring the half-lives of 146 Sm and 147 Sm using decay energy spectroscopy and metallic magnetic calorimeters to improve the accuracy of the Sm Nd chronometers. We report recent experimental results from our first measurement of a 147 Sm source, as well as status and plans for experiments on 146 Sm.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Few is different: deciphering many-body dynamics in mesoscopic quantum gases

Emergent macroscopic descriptions of matter, such as hydrodynamics, are central to our description of complex physical systems across a wide spectrum of energy scales. The conventional understanding of these many-body phenomena has recently been shaken by a number of experimental findings. Collective behavior of matter has been observed in mesoscopic systems, such as high-energy hadron–hadron collisions, or ultracold gases with only a few strongly interacting fermions. In such systems, the separation of scales between macroscopic and microscopic dynamics (at the heart of any effective theory) is inapplicable. To address the conceptual challenges that arise from these observations and explore the universality of emergent descriptions of matter, the EMMI Rapid Reaction Task Force was assembled. This document summarizes the RRTF discussions on recent theoretical and experimental advances in this rapidly developing field. Leveraging technological breakthroughs in the control of quantum systems, we can now quantitatively explore what it means for a system to exhibit behavior beyond the sum of its individual parts. In particular, the report highlights how the (in)applicability of hydrodynamics and other effective theories can be probed across three principal frontiers: the size frontier, the equilibrium frontier, and the interaction frontier.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Journal of Open Source Software (JOSS): Bringing Open-Source Software Practices to the Scholarly Publishing Community for Authors, Reviewers, Editors, and Publishers

Open-source software (OSS) is a critical component of open science, but contributions to the OSS ecosystem are systematically undervalued in the current academic system. The Journal of Open Source Software (JOSS) contributes to addressing this by providing a venue (that is itself free, diamond open access, and all open-source, built in a layered structure using widely available elements/services of the scholarly publishing ecosystem) for publishing OSS, run in the style of OSS itself. A particularly distinctive element of JOSS is that it uses open peer review in a collaborative, iterative format, unlike most publishers. Additionally, all the components of the process—from the reviews to the papers to the software that is the subject of the papers to the software that the journal runs—are open. We describe JOSS’s history and its peer review process using an editorial bot, and we present statistics gathered from JOSS’s public review history on GitHub showing an increasing number of peer reviewed papers each year. We discuss the new JOSSCast and use it as a data source to understand reasons why interviewed authors decided to publish in JOSS. JOSS’s process differs significantly from traditional journals, which has impeded JOSS’s inclusion in indexing services such as Web of Science. In turn, this discourages researchers within certain academic systems, such as Italy’s, which emphasize the importance of Web of Science and/or Scopus indexing for grant applications and promotions. JOSS is a fully diamond open-access journal with a cost of around US$\$$5 per paper for the 401 papers published in 2023. The scalability of running JOSS with volunteers and financing JOSS with grants and donations is discussed.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Magnetic Microcalorimeter (MMC) Gamma-Ray Detectors with Ultra-High Energy Resolution. Comprehensive Technology Readiness Assessment

Magnetic Microcalorimeter (MMC) gamma ray detectors have demonstrated very high energy resolution of 38 eV FWHM for gamma ray energies below 100 keV. This is an order or magnitude better than conventional HPGe detector and can remove most line-overlap problems in NDA by gamma spectroscopy below ~130 keV. Unlike superconducting transition edge sensors (TESs), MMCs have a reproducible and almost perfectly linear response, which greatly simplifies adding spectra from different detector pixels and reduces systematic errors in quantitative assays. The instrument is currently at TRL-5 but could advance to TRL-6 by improving the signal processing software and using the system for the quantitative analysis of a safeguards sample provided by e.g. the IAEA. Making MMC detectors commercially viable and used more widely then depends on making the technology more reliable, specifically by increasing the device uniformity and yield, and by developing commercial software. This situation is often only half-jokingly referred to as the “valley of death” and could be addressed though the SBIR program. Our collaborators at STAR Cryoelectronics LLC are well qualified to further advance MMC development, and XIA LLC is well-positioned to develop the data acquisition system and write the software for MMC readout. In addition, the advance to TRL-6 would be desirable to increase the visibility and showcase the value of MMC spectrometers, e.g. by placing one of them into the Safeguards Analytical Laboratory (SAL) at the IAEA, whose NDA experts have recently started to show interest in cryogenic detector technology. As a result of this LCP, we also now have an instrument at LLNL that we will use for various applications of MMCs in nuclear safeguards and science. We are confident that as the number of high-profile results increases, so will the interest in and commercial viability of this technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Magnetic Microcalorimeter (MMC) Gamma-Ray Detectors with Ultra-High Energy Resolution. Comprehensive Technology Readiness Assessment

Magnetic Microcalorimeter (MMC) gamma ray detectors have demonstrated very high energy resolution of 38 eV FWHM for gamma ray energies below 100 keV. This is an order or magnitude better than conventional HPGe detector and can remove most line-overlap problems in NDA by gamma spectroscopy below ~130 keV. Unlike superconducting transition edge sensors (TESs), MMCs have a reproducible and almost perfectly linear response, which greatly simplifies adding spectra from different detector pixels and reduces systematic errors in quantitative assays. The instrument is currently at TRL-5 but could advance to TRL-6 by improving the signal processing software and using the system for the quantitative analysis of a safeguards sample provided by e.g. the IAEA. Making MMC detectors commercially viable and used more widely then depends on making the technology more reliable, specifically by increasing the device uniformity and yield, and by developing commercial software. This situation is often only half-jokingly referred to as the “valley of death” and could be addressed though the SBIR program. Our collaborators at STAR Cryoelectronics LLC are well qualified to further advance MMC development, and XIA LLC is well-positioned to develop the data acquisition system and write the software for MMC readout. In addition, the advance to TRL-6 would be desirable to increase the visibility and showcase the value of MMC spectrometers, e.g. by placing one of them into the Safeguards Analytical Laboratory (SAL) at the IAEA, whose NDA experts have recently started to show interest in cryogenic detector technology. As a result of this LCP, we also now have an instrument at LLNL that we will use for various applications of MMCs in nuclear safeguards and science. We are confident that as the number of high-profile results increases, so will the interest in and commercial viability of this technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Physical properties, internal structure, and the three‐dimensional petrography of CI chondrites

physical properties and the nature of their breccation, we investigated nine samples of the Ivuna and Orgueil CI chondrites ranging in size from 1 mm to 4 cm in approximate diameter. The combined mass of unique material investigated in this work is 113 g. For our investigations, we use ideal gas pycnometry, 3-D laser scanning, x-ray computed microtomography (μCT), and accompanying digital data extraction techniques. We found that the bulk density of the samples ranged from 1.61 to 2.10 g cm −3 . Larger samples tend to have a lower bulk density. Grain density (ranging from 2.44 to 2.55 g cm −3 ) is significantly less variable than the bulk density in our samples and the quantity of porosity (ranging from 14.6% to 33.8%) is the dominant factor in determining the bulk density of CI chondrite material. Our μCT results show that the visible porosity across all sizes of our CI chondrite samples is in the form of cracks, but these cracks can account for less than two-thirds of the porosity in the CI chondrites. Other porosity is not visible, even at μCT resolutions of 2.7 μm voxel edge −1 and we conclude that it is sub-micron in nature. It is not clear if the cracks seen in our samples are indigenous to the chondrites or are a result of terrestrial processes. We also find that the CI chondrites are excellent examples of the fractal-like nature of brecciation, where clasts can be observed at all scales we imaged. The breccias are composed of sub-equant-shaped and sub-rounded-textured clasts like melt-free impact breccias on other solar system bodies. From our μCT volume and digital data extraction, we determine that the Ivuna CI chondrite breccia is organized: the mostly sub-equant clasts within our ~2 cm chunk of Ivuna have a mean diameter of 1.33 mm and their aligned longest axes define a lineation structure. We speculate that the lineation was imparted after fragmentation of the clasts by slight shear on the parent asteroid which could be the result of seismic-related granular flow or mild non-axial impact-related compaction. These data will help to place returned asteroidal material from asteroids 162173 Ryugu and 101955 Bennu and the CI chondrites into a mutual geological context.

CI chondrite↗

Spin-momentum entanglement in a Bose–Einstein condensate

Here, entanglement is at the core of quantum information processing and may prove essential for quantum speed-up. Inspired by both theoretical and experimental studies of spin-momentum coupling in systems of ultra-cold atoms, we investigate the entanglement between the spin and momentum degrees of freedom of an optically trapped BEC of 87 Rb atoms. We consider entanglement that arises due to the coupling of these degrees of freedom induced by Raman and radio-frequency fields and examine its dependence on the coupling parameters by evaluating von Neumann entropy as well as concurrence as measures of the entanglement attained. Our calculations reveal that under proper experimental conditions significant spin-momentum entanglement can be obtained, with von Neumann entropy of 80% of the maximum attainable value. Our analysis sheds some light on the prospects of using BECs for quantum information applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.13 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Theory Manual (V.6.15)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.16 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota’s iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Inverse Trans Influence and Uranium-Arene σ-Bonding Drive Molecular Geometry: Ligand Modification from Hard to Soft Flips the Oxide from Axial to Equatorial

A rare example of an equatorially bound terminal uranium(V) oxo complex in a chelating sulfur-based ligand environment, namely [(mes( Me,Ad ArS) 3 )U V (O eq )(THF)] (2), is presented. Octahedrally coordinated 2 is obtained by reaction of the mesitylene-anchored tris-thiophenolate-coordinated uranium(III) complex [U III ((SAr Ad,Me ) 3 mes)] (1) with the oxygen-atom transfer reagent N 2 O. The observed, equatorially bound oxo ligand in 2 is in stark contrast to its known tris-aryloxide analog, [(mes( Me,Ad ArO) 3 )U V (O ax )(THF)] (A), where the oxo ligand occupies the typically observed axial coordination site. Complexes 1 and 2 are characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction analyses and spectroscopic and magnetochemical methods, including 1 H NMR, UV/vis/NIR electronic absorption, as well as EPR spectroscopy and SQUID magnetometry, thus confirming the C S symmetry and the pentavalent oxidation state of 2. Encompassing quantum chemical calculations (DFT and CASPT2) on 2 and its tris-phenolate analog A, support and rationalize the structural and electronic differences. The molecular orbital pictures show that a stabilizing σ-bonding interaction arising from the U–O eq inverse trans influence (ITI) is present in 2 but missing in A. In 2, the sulfur 3p orbitals are closer in energy to the uranium 5f manifold than the arene π-system, leading to an ITI, while U–arene σ- or δ-bonding is not observed. Although the arene orbitals remain separated from the uranium 5f orbitals in A, the absence of an ITI allows the arene a 2u orbital to engage in a σ-type interaction with the metal. Thus, incorporating a tris-thiophenolate to an arene anchor introduces a new design concept in molecular f-element chemistry. This approach stabilizes an equatorially bound U(V) oxo center, contrasting with its tris-phenolate counterpart, where oxo coordination is axial. The observed geometric divergence, driven by competing ITI and U–arene interactions, not only tunes electronic structure but also leads to differentiated reactivity: only the phenolate analogs activate H 2 O, while the thiolates do not.

Hydrocarbons↗

Photoinduced Charge Carrier Dynamics and Electron Injection Efficiencies in Au Nanoparticle-Sensitized TiO 2 Determined with Picosecond Time-Resolved X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy

Progress in the development of plasmon-enabled light-harvesting technologies requires a better understanding of their fundamental operating principles and current limitations. In this work, we employ picosecond time-resolved X-ray photoemission spectroscopy to investigate photoinduced electron transfer in a plasmonic model system composed of 20 nm sized gold nanoparticles (NPs) attached to a nanoporous film of TiO 2 . The measurement provides direct, quantitative access to transient local charge distributions from the perspectives of the electron donor (AuNP) and the electron acceptor (TiO 2 ). On average, approximately two electrons are injected per NP, corresponding to an electron injection yield per absorbed photon of 0.1%. Back electron transfer from the perspective of the electron donor is dominated by a fast recombination channel proceeding on a time scale of 60 ± 10 ps and a minor contribution that is completed after ~1 ns. The findings provide a detailed picture of photoinduced charge carrier generation in this NP–semiconductor junction, with important implications for understanding achievable overall photon-to-charge conversion efficiencies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dakota A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.12 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis (V.6.14) (Theory Manual)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SAGA1 and MITH1 produce matrix-traversing membranes in the CO2-fixing pyrenoid

Abstract Approximately one-third of global CO 2 assimilation is performed by the pyrenoid, a liquid-like organelle found in most algae and some plants. Specialized pyrenoid-traversing membranes are hypothesized to drive CO 2 assimilation in the pyrenoid by delivering concentrated CO 2 , but how these membranes are made to traverse the pyrenoid matrix remains unknown. Here we show that proteins SAGA1 and MITH1 cause membranes to traverse the pyrenoid matrix in the model alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii . Mutants deficient in SAGA1 or MITH1 lack matrix-traversing membranes and exhibit growth defects under CO 2 -limiting conditions. Expression of SAGA1 and MITH1 together in a heterologous system, the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana , produces matrix-traversing membranes. Both proteins localize to matrix-traversing membranes. SAGA1 binds to the major matrix component, Rubisco, and is necessary to initiate matrix-traversing membranes. MITH1 binds to SAGA1 and is necessary for extension of membranes through the matrix. Our data suggest that SAGA1 and MITH1 cause membranes to traverse the matrix by creating an adhesive interaction between the membrane and matrix. Our study identifies and characterizes key factors in the biogenesis of pyrenoid matrix-traversing membranes, demonstrates the importance of these membranes to pyrenoid function and marks a key milestone toward pyrenoid engineering into crops for improving yields.

Hennacy, Jessica H.↗

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Study of Pile-Up Effects in Decay Energy Spectroscopy

Pile-up is an unavoidable complication for cryogenic detectors with relatively large heat capacities and slow rise time, such as systems for decay energy spectroscopy employing large Au absorbers. We have simulated the spectral response of such slow cryogenic detectors using Monte-Carlo algorithms to investigate the effects of pile-up on absolute and relative activity measurements. We focus on the impact of non-distinguishable pile-up that occurs when the rising edges of two waveforms originating from different events overlap in time and are interpreted as a single event. This effect can not be readily identified and corrected in experimental data. We investigated two representative cases of absolute decay counting and plutonium isotopic analysis and find that pile-up can distort the reconstruction of both the absolute and relative activities. This Monte-Carlo methodology quantifies of pile-up effects and provides a systematic methodology for calculating corrective factors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On the Sensitivity of Coastal Hypoxia to Its External Physical Forcings

Abstract The development of low‐oxygen zones threatening marine life (hypoxia) occurs annually in multiple coastal regions of the world. The largest estuary of the continental United States, the Chesapeake Bay, typically has ≈10 km 3 of water with dioxygen concentrations <3 mg L −1 in July. As numerical methods for refining model resolutions in targeted areas are becoming common, there is interest in assessing the feasibility of simulating coastal hazards such as hypoxia in Earth System Models (ESMs). These coupled models are typically not constrained by observations and thus likely to feature systematic biases in their land, atmosphere, or ocean components. This study relies on four numerical experiments to evaluate the sensitivity of Chesapeake Bay hypoxia to changes or biases in its external physical forcings. Hypoxia exhibits only a minor decrease (−1.6%) after reducing the Bay's terrestrial freshwater discharge by 9.5% (but keeping terrestrial nutrient loadings the same). Changes in freshwater discharges have their largest impact on hypoxia during one extreme event (−37% during 2011 tropical storm Lee). Similarly, changing oceanic conditions on the shelf or their temporal frequency impact hypoxia by only 5%–6%, indicating that the latter is predominantly dictated by local conditions. Although these results are promising from the perspective of ESMs, additional components of ESMs will need to be evaluated before general conclusions can be reached. We notably speculate that the Bay's hypoxia would exhibit higher sensitivity to other forcings not examined here, notably air temperatures and nutrient loadings.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗