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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Fuzzy learning under and about an unfamiliar fuzzy teacher

This study addresses the problem of optimal parametric learning in unfamiliar fuzzy environments. Prior studies in the domain of unfamiliar environments, which employed either crisp or fuzzy approaches to model the uncertainty or imperfectness of the learning environment, assumed that the training sample labels provided by the unfamiliar teacher were crisp, even if not perfect. Here, the more realistic problem of fuzzy learning under an unfamiliar teacher who provides only fuzzy (instead of crisp) labels, is tackled by expanding the previously defined fuzzy membership concepts to include an additional component representative of the fuzziness of the teacher. The previously studied scenarios, namely, crisp and fuzzy learning under (crisp) unfamiliar teacher, can be looked upon as special cases of this new methodology. As under the earlier studies, the estimated membership functions can then be deployed during the ensuing classification decision phase to judiciously take into account the imperfectness of the learning environment. The study also offers some insight into the properties of several of these fuzzy membership function estimators by examining their behavior under certain specific scenarios.

Dasarathy, Belur V.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Development of confidence limits by pivotal functions for estimating software reliability

The utility of pivotal functions is established for assessing software reliability. Based on the Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model of reliability growth, confidence limits for attained reliability and prediction limits for the time to the next failure are derived using a pivotal function approach. Asymptotic approximations to the confidence and prediction limits are considered and are shown to be inadequate in cases where only a few bugs are found in the software. Departures from the assumed exponentially distributed interfailure times in the model are also investigated. The effect of these departures is discussed relative to restricting the use of the Moranda model.

Dotson, Kelly J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Identification of boiler inlet transfer functions and estimation of system parameters

An iterative computer method is described for identifying boiler transfer functions using frequency response data. An objective penalized performance measure and a nonlinear minimization technique are used to cause the locus of points generated by a transfer function to resemble the locus of points obtained from frequency response measurements. Different transfer functions can be tried until a satisfactory empirical transfer function of the system is found. To illustrate the method, some examples and some results from a study of a set of data consisting of measurements of the inlet impedance of a single tube forced flow boiler with inserts are given.

Miles, J. H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advances in statistical methods for cancer surveillance research: an age-period-cohort perspective

Background: Analysis of Lexis diagrams (population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates indexed by age group and calendar period) requires specialized statistical methods. However, existing methods have limitations that can now be overcome using new approaches. Methods: We assembled a “toolbox” of novel methods to identify trends and patterns by age group, calendar period, and birth cohort. We evaluated operating characteristics across 152 cancer incidence Lexis diagrams compiled from United States (US) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program data for 21 leading cancers in men and women in four race and ethnicity groups (the “cancer incidence panel”). Results: Nonparametric singular values adaptive kernel filtration (SIFT) decreased the estimated root mean squared error by 90% across the cancer incidence panel. A novel method for semi-parametric age-period-cohort analysis (SAGE) provided optimally smoothed estimates of age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions and stabilized estimates of lack-of-fit (LOF). SAGE identified statistically significant birth cohort effects across the entire cancer panel; LOF had little impact. As illustrated for colon cancer, newly developed methods for comparative age-period-cohort analysis can elucidate cancer heterogeneity that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to discern using standard methods. Conclusions: Cancer surveillance researchers can now identify fine-scale temporal signals with unprecedented accuracy and elucidate cancer heterogeneity with unprecedented specificity. Birth cohort effects are ubiquitous modulators of cancer incidence in the US. The novel methods described here can advance cancer surveillance research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Transfer-function-parameter estimation from frequency response data: A FORTRAN program

A FORTRAN computer program designed to fit a linear transfer function model to given frequency response magnitude and phase data is presented. A conjugate gradient search is used that minimizes the integral of the absolute value of the error squared between the model and the data. The search is constrained to insure model stability. A scaling of the model parameters by their own magnitude aids search convergence. Efficient computer algorithms result in a small and fast program suitable for a minicomputer. A sample problem with different model structures and parameter estimates is reported.

Seidel, R. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating basis functions in massive fields under the spatial mixed effects model

Abstract Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the spatial mixed effects model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an alternating expectation conditional maximization algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature dataset archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.

Pazdernik, Karl↗
NASA NTRS2022

Earth System Model Parameter Adjustment Using a Green's Functions Approach

We demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of using a Green's functions estimation approach for adjusting uncertain parameters in an Earth system model (ESM). This estimation approach has previously been applied to an intermediate-complexity climate model and to individual ESM components, e.g., ocean, sea ice, or carbon cycle components. Here, the Green's functions approach is applied to a state-of-the-art ESM that comprises a global atmosphere/land configuration of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) coupled to an ocean and sea ice configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). Horizontal grid spacing is approximately 110 km for GEOS and 37–110 km for MITgcm. In addition to the reference GEOS-MITgcm simulation, we carried out a series of model sensitivity experiments, in which 20 uncertain parameters are perturbed. These “control” parameters can be used to adjust sea ice, microphysics, turbulence, radiation, and surface schemes in the coupled simulation. We defined eight observational targets: sea ice fraction, net surface shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation, near-surface temperature, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and ocean temperature and salinity at 300 m. We applied the Green's functions approach to optimize the values of the 20 control parameters so as to minimize a weighted least-squares distance between the model and the eight observational targets. The new experiment with the optimized parameters resulted in a total cost reduction of 9 % relative to a simulation that had already been adjusted using other methods. The optimized experiment attained a balanced cost reduction over most of the observational targets. We also report on results from a set of sensitivity experiments that are not used in the final optimized simulation but helped explore options and guided the optimization process. These experiments include an assessment of sensitivity to the number of control parameters and to the selection of observational targets and weights in the cost function. Based on these sensitivity experiments, we selected a specific definition for the cost function. The sensitivity experiments also revealed a decreasing overall cost as the number of control variables was increased. In summary, we recommend using the Green's functions estimation approach as an additional fine-tuning step in the model development process. The method is not a replacement for modelers' experience in choosing and adjusting sensitive model parameters. Instead, it is an additional practical and effective tool for carrying out final adjustments of uncertain ESM parameters.

Green's Function↗
NASA NTRS1976

On Schmidt's Vm estimator and other estimators of luminosity functions

Schmidt's (1968) estimator, sometimes used to calculate the luminosity function from a complete sample of observed objects, can be generalized naively to the case in which the maximum distance for detection is a function of the direction. Though unbiased, this estimator then does not have minimum variance and, in some cases, is inferior to the classical estimator. The classical estimator, however, is biased when the magnitude boxes are not infinitesimal. A generalization of Schmidt's estimator is proposed which is unbiased and usually superior to both Schmidt's and the classical estimator. Variance formulas and numerical examples are given. The results can be used in combining several catalogs.

Felten, J. E.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Temporal changes of seismic velocities in the San Jacinto Fault zone associated with the 2016 M w 5.2 Borrego Springs earthquake

We study temporal changes of seismic velocities associated with the 10 June 2016 Mw 5.2 Borrego Springs earthquake in the San Jacinto fault zone, using nine component Green's function estimates reconstructed from daily cross correlations of ambient noise. The analysed data are recorded by stations in two dense linear arrays, at Dry Wash (DW) and Jackass Flat (JF), crossing the fault surface trace ~3 km northwest and southeast of the event epicentre. The two arrays have 9 and 12 stations each with instrument spacing of 25–100 m. Relative velocity changes (δv/v) are estimated from arrival time changes in the daily correlation coda waveforms compared to a reference stack. The obtained array-average δv/v time-series exhibit changes associated with the Borrego Springs event, superposed with seasonal variations. The earthquake-related changes are characterized by a rapid coseismic velocity drop followed by a gradual recovery. This is consistently observed at both arrays using time- and frequency-domain δv/v analyses with data from different components in various frequency bands. Larger changes at lower frequencies imply that the variations are not limited to the near surface material. A decreasing coseismic velocity reduction with coda wave lapse time indicates larger coseismic structural perturbations in the fault zone and near-fault environment compared to the surrounding rock. Observed larger changes at the DW array compared to the JF array possibly reflect the northwestward rupture directivity of the Borrego Springs earthquake.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2018

Estimates for Functionals of Solutions to Higher-Order Heat-Type Equations with Random Initial Conditions

In the present paper we continue the investigation of solutions to higher-order heat-type equations with random initial conditions, which play the important role in many applied areas. We consider the random initial conditions given by harmonizable φ-sub-Gaussian processes. The main results are the bounds for the distributions of the suprema over bounded and unbounded domains for solutions of such equations. The results obtained in the paper hold, in particular, for the case of Gaussian initial condition.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1983

Error latency estimation using functional fault modeling

A complete modeling of faults at gate level for a fault tolerant computer is both infeasible and uneconomical. Functional fault modeling is an approach where units are characterized at an intermediate level and then combined to determine fault behavior. The applicability of functional fault modeling to the FTMP is studied. Using this model a forecast of error latency is made for some functional blocks. This approach is useful in representing larger sections of the hardware and aids in uncovering system level deficiencies.

Manthani, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Partial and Interaction Spline Models for the Semiparametric Estimation of Functions of Several Variables

A partial spline model is a model for a response as a function of several variables, which is the sum of a smooth function of several variables and a parametric function of the same plus possibly some other variables. Partial spline models in one and several variables, with direct and indirect data, with Gaussian errors and as an extension of GLIM to partially penalized GLIM models are described. Application to the modeling of change of regime in several variables is described. Interaction splines are introduced and described and their potential use for modeling non-linear interactions between variables by semiparametric methods is noted. Reference is made to recent work in efficient computational methods.

Wahba, Grace↗
DOE OSTI2021

Signal Preconditioning to Minimize Impulse Response Contribution

A study was performed to identify a method to minimize the effect of a linear time-invariant (LTI) system impulse response on an input. Three methods were studied: Wiener filter, the N4SID algorithm and transfer function estimation, the latter two using functions from MATLAB’s System Identification Toolbox. Although all three methods were able estimate an unknown forward impulse response given an input/output time series pair, only the Wiener filter was able to estimate a system inverse which satisfactorily solved the problem using a cosine similarity measure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Interpolation schemes in the control of systems with unknown dynamics

Time-delay control for systems with unknown dynamics involves estimations. In its present form, these estimations include not only the interpolation of a time-varying function but also its derivative between data points. Presently, the control law is reformulated, taking into account the computation delay. A window-shifting scheme is then devised to view n data points as they are sampled in order to perform the function estimation. At each new sampling time, the window shifts to include the new data point as well as the last n-1 points. Several interpolation methods are considered. These methods use data points from a sampled function to construct a polynomial estimate of the function. The control system performance was experimentally tested using a servosystem. The results show that a Newtonian interpolation provided best results when the computation time was 0.4 times the sampling period.

Youcef-Toumi, K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Model Identification from Flight Data

Uncertainty modeling is a critical element in the estimation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction and robust flight control system development. There has been a serious deficiency to date in aeroservoelastic data analysis with attention to uncertainty modeling. Uncertainty can be estimated from flight data using both parametric and nonparametric identification techniques. The model validation problem addressed in this paper is to identify aeroservoelastic models with associated uncertainty structures from a limited amount of controlled excitation inputs over an extensive flight envelope. The challenge to this problem is to update analytical models from flight data estimates while also deriving non-conservative uncertainty descriptions consistent with the flight data. Multisine control surface command inputs and control system feedbacks are used as signals in a wavelet-based modal parameter estimation procedure for model updates. Transfer function estimates are incorporated in a robust minimax estimation scheme to get input-output parameters and error bounds consistent with the data and model structure. Uncertainty estimates derived from the data in this manner provide an appropriate and relevant representation for model development and robust stability analysis. This model-plus-uncertainty identification procedure is applied to aeroservoelastic flight data from the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-18 Systems Research Aircraft.

Brenner, Martin J.↗