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At least 37 records · Page 2

Observations and Simulations of Dropout Events and Flux Decays in October 2013: Comparing MEO Equatorial With LEO Polar Orbit

We compare ESA PROBA-V observations of electron flux at LEO with those from the NASA Van Allen Probes mostly at MEO for October 2013. Dropouts are visible at all energy during four storms from both satellites. Equatorially trapped electron fluxes are higher than at LEO by 10 2 (<1 MeV) to 10 5 (>2.5 MeV). We observe a quite isotropic structure of the outer belt during quiet times, contrary to the inner belt, and pitch angle dependence of high energy injection. We find a very good overlap of the outer belt at MEO and LEO at ~0.5 MeV. We use test-particle simulations of the energetic electrons trapped in the terrestrial magnetic field to study the outer radiation belt electron flux changes during geomagnetic storms. We show that the Dst (Disturbance storm time) effect during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm results in a betatron mechanism causing outward radial drift and a deceleration of the electrons. This outward drift motion is energy independent, pitch angle-dependent, and represents a significant distance (~1 L-shell at L = 5 for moderate storms). At fixed L-shell, this causes a decay of the LEO precipitating flux (adiabatic outward motion), followed by a return to the normal state (adiabatic inward motion) during main and recovery phases. Dst effect, associated with magnetopause shadowing and radial diffusion can explain the main characteristics of outer radiation belt electron dropouts in October 2013. We also use Fokker-Planck simulations with event-driven diffusion coefficients at high temporal resolution, to distinguish instantaneous loss from the gradual scattering that depopulates the slot region and the outer belt after storms. Simulations reproduce the slot formation and the gradual loss in the outer belt. The typical energy dependence of these losses leads to the absence of scattering for relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons in the outer belt, oppositely to dropouts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Exploring Localized Geomagnetic Disturbances in Global MHD: Physics and Numerics

One of the prominent effects of space weather is the formation of rapid geomagnetic field variations on Earth's surface driven by the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. These geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) cause geomagnetically induced currents to run through ground conducting systems. In particular, localized GMDs (LGMDs) can be high amplitude and can have an effect on scale sizes less than 100 km, making them hazardous to power grids and difficult to predict. In this study, we examine the ability of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to reproduce LGMDs in the 7 September 2017 event using both existing and new metrics to quantify the success of the model against observation. We show that the high-resolution SWMF can reproduce LGMDs driven by ionospheric sources, but struggles to reproduce LGMDs driven by substorm effects. We calculate the global maxima of the magnetic fluctuations to show instances when the SWMF captures LGMDs at the correct times but not the correct locations. To remedy these shortcomings we suggest model developments that will directly impact the ability of the SWMF to reproduce LGMDs, most importantly updating the ionospheric conductance calculation from empirical to physics-based.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Review of the GMD Benchmark Event in TPL-007-1

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) examined the approaches suggested in NERC Standard TPL-007-1 for defining the geo-electric field for the Benchmark Geomagnetic Disturbance (GMD) Event. Specifically; 1. Estimating 100-year exceedance geo-electric field magnitude; The scaling of the GMD Benchmark Event to geomagnetic latitudes below 60 degrees north; and 3. The effect of uncertainties in earth conductivity data on the conversion from geomagnetic field to geo-electric field. This document summarizes the review and presents recommendations for consideration

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Contribution of storm time substorms to the prompt electric field disturbances in the equatorial ionosphere

This study tries to bring out the fact that storm time substorms can compete and at times significantly contribute to the geomagnetically disturbed time prompt penetration electric field effects on low and equatorial latitudes. Observations of unusual equatorial plasma drift data from Jicamarca Unattended Long-term Investigations of the Ionosphere and Atmosphere during two space weather events show that substorms can induce both eastward and westward penetration electric fields under steady southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF B z ) conditions. During the first event on 2 January 2005, the enhancement of the daytime eastward electric field over Jicamarca due to substorm is found to be comparable with the Sq and interplanetary electric field (IEFy) generated electric fields combined. During the second event on 19 August 2006, the substorm is seen to weaken the daytime eastward field thereby inducing a westward field in spite of the absence of northward turning of IMF B z (overshielding). The westward electric field perturbation in the absence of any overshielding events is observationally sparse and contrary to the earlier results. Further, the substorm-induced field is found to be strong enough to compete or almost nullify the effects of storm time IEFy fields. This study also shows quantitatively that at times substorm contribution to the disturbed time prompt electric fields can be significant and thus should be taken into consideration in evaluating penetration events over low latitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying the Effect of Magnetic Field Line Curvature Scattering on the Loss of Ring Current Ions

During geomagnetic storms, the ring current ions sometimes exhibit rapid loss as suggested by the fast recovery of the Dst index on a time scale of a few hours. Here, the effects of magnetic field line curvature (FLC) scattering on the loss of ring current ions, which have not been well quantified, are studied here by test particle simulations under the T89c magnetic field model. Our simulation results show that the prediction of ion loss based on a single–value cutoff of the κ parameter or maximum of δμ/μ of a single FLC scattering is not accurate. Instead, the e–folding lifetime (τ) for the loss of ring current ions due to cumulative FLC scattering has been calculated for different initial ion energies, equatorial pitch angles, and L shells under different geomagnetic conditions. The results show that in general the FLC scattering loss is faster for ions of higher energy, higher mass, smaller pitch angle, higher L, and at high Kp level. Specifically, we find that at Kp = 6 the lifetime can be <10 h at L > 5 for 100 s keV protons and at L > 4 for 100 s keV O + , which demonstrates that FLC scattering can be an important mechanism for the observed fast loss (τ < 10 h) of ring current ions during geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, we formulate an empirical formula for τ as a function of ion energy, pitch angle, position, species, and Kp. The empirical formula can be directly included in ring current models to account for the FLC scattering effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Plasma instabilities in the ionosphere at the crest of anomaly region

Comparison of the in situ density fluctuations measured by the DEMETER satellite with ground based GPS receiver measurements at the equatorial anomaly station Bhopal [geographic coordinates (23.2°N, 77.6°E); geomagnetic coordinates (14.29° N, 151.12°E)] for the low solar activity year, 2005, are presented in this paper. The Langmuir Probe experiment and Plasma Analyzer onboard DEMETER measure the electron and ion densities respectively. It is interesting to note that in situ density fluctuations observed on magnetic flux tubes that pass over Bhopal can be used as indicator of ionospheric scintillations at that site. Many cases of density fluctuations and associated scintillations have been observed during descending low solar activity period.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Energy Estimation of Cosmic Rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30 to 80MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy density is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge excess emission components. We found that the spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy – corrected for geometrical effects – is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. Finally we find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling the impact of GIC neutral blocking devices on distance protection relay operations for transmission lines

Geomagnetic Induced Current (GIC) blocking devices typically include a capacitor on the neutral grounding path of wye-configured transformers. This type of GIC blocking device was designed as an effective countermeasure to prevent possible damages caused on the power grid by geomagnetic storms, and by the slow-varying component of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP). The insertion of a capacitor in the transformer neutral impedes the establishment of GICs in lines terminated with wye-connected transformer windings. With the presence of a capacitively grounded neutral, however, it becomes important to evaluate that no adverse effects are introduced in the general grid operations. In this context, this study investigates the impact of GIC neutral blocking devices on the functionality of distance protection relays for different values of transformer neutral blocking capacitors, and at different transmission line voltages. This study was conducted with a real-time simulation platform, and the simulations were performed by introducing a phase-to-ground fault at different line locations, and by measuring the apparent impedance at the protection relay location. Finally, the results indicated that, for typical values of capacitance considered for GIC neutral blocking devices, the distance protection relay model operates properly, without requiring a modification of the relay settings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Ion nose spectral structures observed by the Van Allen Probes

Here, we present a statistical study of nose-like structures observed in energetic hydrogen, helium, and oxygen ions near the inner edge of the plasma sheet. Nose structures are spectral features named after the characteristic shapes of energy bands or gaps in the energy-time spectrograms of in situ measured ion fluxes. Using 22 months of observations from the Helium Oxygen Proton Electron (HOPE) instrument onboard Van Allen Probe A, we determine the number of noses observed, and the minimum L-shell reached and energy of each nose on each pass through the inner magnetosphere. We find that multiple noses occur more frequently in heavy ions than in H + , and are most often observed during quiet times. The heavy-ion noses penetrate to lower L shells than H + noses and there is an energy-magnetic local time (MLT) dependence in the nose locations and energies that is similar for all species. The observations are interpreted using a steady-state model of ion drift in the inner magnetosphere. The model is able to explain the energy and MLT dependence of the different types of nose structures. Different ion charge exchange lifetimes are the main cause for the deeper penetration of heavy-ion noses. The species dependence and preferred geomagnetic conditions of multiple-nose events indicate that they must be on long drift paths, leading to strong charge-exchange effects. The results provide important insight into the spatial distribution, species dependence, and geomagnetic conditions under which nose structures occur.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM STRENGTH FROM INNER HELIOSPHERIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS

Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B{sub z}. Predicting the strength and duration of B{sub z} inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B{sub z} problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B{sub z}, and resulting disturbance storm time ( Dst ) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX , resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind . Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s{sup −1}; observed: 488 ± 30 km s{sup −1}), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Wi-Fi is an important threat to human health

Highlights: • 7 effects have each been repeatedly reported following Wi-Fi & other EMF exposures. • Established Wi-Fi effects, include apoptosis, oxidat. stress &: • testis/sperm dysfunct; Neuropsych; DNA impact; hormone change; Ca2+ rise. • Wi-Fi is thought to act via voltage-gated calcium channel activation. • One claim of no Wi-Fi effects was found to be deeply flawed. Repeated Wi-Fi studies show that Wi-Fi causes oxidative stress, sperm/testicular damage, neuropsychiatric effects including EEG changes, apoptosis, cellular DNA damage, endocrine changes, and calcium overload. Each of these effects are also caused by exposures to other microwave frequency EMFs, with each such effect being documented in from 10 to 16 reviews. Therefore, each of these seven EMF effects are established effects of Wi-Fi and of other microwave frequency EMFs. Each of these seven is also produced by downstream effects of the main action of such EMFs, voltage-gated calcium channel (VGCC) activation. While VGCC activation via EMF interaction with the VGCC voltage sensor seems to be the predominant mechanism of action of EMFs, other mechanisms appear to have minor roles. Minor roles include activation of other voltage-gated ion channels, calcium cyclotron resonance and the geomagnetic magnetoreception mechanism. Five properties of non-thermal EMF effects are discussed. These are that pulsed EMFs are, in most cases, more active than are non-pulsed EMFs; artificial EMFs are polarized and such polarized EMFs are much more active than non-polarized EMFs; dose-response curves are non-linear and non-monotone; EMF effects are often cumulative; and EMFs may impact young people more than adults. These general findings and data presented earlier on Wi-Fi effects were used to assess the Foster and Moulder (F&M) review of Wi-Fi. The F&M study claimed that there were seven important studies of Wi-Fi that each showed no effect. However, none of these were Wi-Fi studies, with each differing from genuine Wi-Fi in three distinct ways. F&M could, at most conclude that there was no statistically significant evidence of an effect. The tiny numbers studied in each of these seven F&M-linked studies show that each of them lack power to make any substantive conclusions. In conclusion, there are seven repeatedly found Wi-Fi effects which have also been shown to be caused by other similar EMF exposures. Each of the seven should be considered, therefore, as established effects of Wi-Fi.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-informed heterogeneous graph neural networks for DC blocker placement

The threat of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) to the reliable operation of the bulk energy system has spurred the development of effective strategies for mitigating their impacts. One such approach involves placing transformer neutral blocking devices, which interrupt the path of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) to limit their impact. The high cost of these devices and the sparsity of transformers that experience high GICs during GMD events, however, calls for a sparse placement strategy that involves high computational cost. To address this challenge, we developed a physics-informed heterogeneous graph neural network (PIHGNN) for solving the graph-based dc-blocker placement problem. Our approach combines a heterogeneous graph neural network (HGNN) with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to capture the diverse types of nodes and edges in ac/dc networks and incorporates the physical laws of the power grid. We train the PIHGNN model using a surrogate power flow model and validate it using case studies. Results demonstrate that PIHGNN can effectively and efficiently support the deployment of GIC dc-current blockers, ensuring the continued supply of electricity to meet societal demands. Furthermore, our approach has the potential to contribute to the development of more reliable and resilient power grids capable of withstanding the growing threat that GMDs pose.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Geomagnetic Disturbance Uncertainty Quantification Modeling: An Electromagnetic Transient and Steady-State Simulation Based Approach

Geomagnetic disturbances have been shown to disrupt the operation of the bulk electrical system through low-frequency effects in the earth's magnetic field that in turn induce changing electrical fields on the earth's surface. As a result, geomagnetically induced currents flow in transmission lines, introducing the risk for widespread damage to high-voltage transformers and voltage collapse due to induced reactive power loss. In a previous paper, the authors showed how certain modeling assumptions can lead to results that are unacceptable in certain edge case scenarios. In this paper, the authors build on their previous results using modeling uncertainty quantification in order to compare the results from electromagnetic transient program modeling software, ATP, to the positive-sequence calculation software, PowerWorld.

Bretas, Arturo Suman↗

Geomagnetically Induced Current Field Test on Large Grid-Connected Power Transformers: Analysis, Model Development, and Simulations

Geomagnetic-induced current (GIC) flow in power grids can cause undesirable effects such as transformer overheating, harmonics, higher reactive power demand, etc. Many simulation models have been developed to study these effects, but real-world verification on modern transformer designs is rare. Here, this paper presents the first long-duration GIC field test in the U.S. performed on high-voltage, grid-connected transformers featuring winding clamps and tie rods instead of conventional tie bars. Field measurements were taken to evaluate GIC effects. These measurements also aided in developing and validating thermal and electromagnetic transient (EMT) models of the transformers. During the test, significant current and voltage distortions were observed along with considerable transformer reactive power losses. Analysis of the field measurements showed that the transformers’ hottest spot was at the inner windings, and their k-factors were close to factory test and software default values. Thermal simulations indicated that the transformers would not violate their thermal limits even for a GIC waveform that peaks at about 200 A/phase. EMT simulations revealed that increased transformer loading may reduce GIC-induced reactive power demand and harmonics in certain scenarios. The study also highlighted potential inaccuracies in using the k-factor method to calculate transformer reactive power losses.

EMTDC↗

Dependence of EMIC wave parameters during quiet, geomagnetic storm, and geomagnetic storm phase times

As electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves may play an important role in radiation belt dynamics, there has been a push to better include them into global simulations. How to best include EMIC wave effects is still an open question. Recently many studies have attempted to parameterize EMIC waves and their characteristics by geomagnetic indices. However, this does not fully take into account important physics related to the phase of a geomagnetic storm. In this paper we first consider how EMIC wave occurrence varies with the phase of a geomagnetic storm and the SYM-H, AE, and Kp indices. Here we show that the storm phase plays an important role in the occurrence probability of EMIC waves. The occurrence rates for a given value of a geomagnetic index change based on the geomagnetic condition. Then in this study we also describe the typical plasma and wave parameters observed in L and magnetic local time for quiet, storm, and storm phase. These results are given in a tabular format in the supporting information so that more accurate statistics of EMIC wave parameters can be incorporated into modeling efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

THE TEMPERATURE EFFECT IN SECONDARY COSMIC RAYS (MUONS) OBSERVED AT THE GROUND: ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL MUON DETECTOR NETWORK DATA

The analysis of cosmic ray intensity variation seen by muon detectors at Earth's surface can help us to understand astrophysical, solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic phenomena. However, before comparing cosmic ray intensity variations with extraterrestrial phenomena, it is necessary to take into account atmospheric effects such as the temperature effect. In this work, we analyzed this effect on the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), which is composed of four ground-based detectors, two in the northern hemisphere and two in the southern hemisphere. In general, we found a higher temperature influence on detectors located in the northern hemisphere. Besides that, we noticed that the seasonal temperature variation observed at the ground and at the altitude of maximum muon production are in antiphase for all GMDN locations (low-latitude regions). In this way, contrary to what is expected in high-latitude regions, the ground muon intensity decrease occurring during summertime would be related to both parts of the temperature effect (the negative and the positive). We analyzed several methods to describe the temperature effect on cosmic ray intensity. We found that the mass weighted method is the one that best reproduces the seasonal cosmic ray variation observed by the GMDN detectors and allows the highest correlation with long-term variation of the cosmic ray intensity seen by neutron monitors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probability of relativistic electron trapping by parallel and oblique whistler-mode waves in Earth's radiation belts

We investigate electron trapping by high-amplitude whistler-mode waves propagating at small as well as large angles relative to geomagnetic field lines. The inhomogeneity of the background magnetic field can result in an effective acceleration of trapped particles. Here, we derive useful analytical expressions for the probability of electron trapping by both parallel and oblique waves, paving the way for a full analytical description of trapping effects on the particle distribution. Numerical integrations of particle trajectories allow to demonstrate the accuracy of the derived analytical estimates. For realistic wave amplitudes, the levels of probabilities of trapping are generally comparable for oblique and parallel waves, but they turn out to be most efficient over complementary energy ranges. Trapping acceleration of <100 keV electrons is mainly provided by oblique waves, while parallel waves are responsible for the trapping acceleration of >100 keV electrons.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Non-Targeted Effects Models Predict Significantly Higher Mars Mission Cancer Risk than Targeted Effects Models

Cancer risk is an important concern for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for surrogate cancer endpoints in cell culture models and tumor induction in mice vary considerable, including significant variations for different tissues and mouse strains. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTE) occur for low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. Using the mouse Harderian gland tumor experiment, the only extensive data-set for dose response modelling with a variety of particle types (>4), for the first-time a particle track structure model of tumor prevalence is used to investigate the effects of NTEs in predictions of chronic GCR exposure risk. The NTE model led to a predicted risk 2-fold higher compared to a targeted effects model. The scarcity of data with animal models for tissues that dominate human radiation cancer risk, including lung, colon, breast, liver, and stomach, suggest that studies of NTEs in other tissues are urgently needed prior to long-term space missions outside the protection of the Earth’s geomagnetic sphere.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗