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Grid Cost and Total Emissions Reductions Through Mass Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps for Building Heating and Cooling Electrification in the United States

This report presents the results of a study on the potential grid impacts of national-scale mass deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) coupled with weatherization in single-family homes (SFHs) from 2022 to 2050. GHPs are a technology readiness level 10, commercially available technology across the United States. This study is an impact analysis only; installed costs and available land areas for installing GHPs are not accounted for in determining their estimated deployment. The three scenarios studied were (1) continuing to operate the grid as it is today (the Base scenario), (2) a scenario to reach 95% grid emissions reductions by 2035 and 100% clean electricity by 2050 (the Grid Decarbonization scenario), and (3) a scenario in which the Grid Decarbonization scenario is expanded to include the electrification of wide portions of the economy, including building heating (the Electrification Futures Study or EFS scenario). The analysis team modeled each of these three scenarios with and without GHP deployment to a large percentage of US building floor space. In all cases, deployment of approximately 5 million GHPs per year demonstrated system cost savings on the grid, consumer fuel cost savings through eliminated fuel combustion for space heating, and CO 2 emission reductions from avoided on-site fuel combustion—and, in the case of the Base scenario, CO 2 emissions reductions from the electric power sector. GHPs have traditionally been viewed as a building energy technology. The most notable result of this study, however, is the demonstration that GHPs coupled with weatherization in SFHs are primarily a grid cost reduction tool and technology that, when deployed at a national scale, also substantially reduces CO 2 emissions, even in the absence of any other decarbonization policy.

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Procurement Options for Low Temperature Geothermal Technologies at Federal Facilities

Federal agencies are moving towards more efficient and resilient facilities by increasingly implementing energy projects in an effort to meet federally mandated goals, agency needs, and administration priorities. Low temperature geothermal technologies, which include geothermal heat pumps (GHP) and district heating systems, can contribute to meeting these goals. These technologies provide facilities with heating and cooling while reducing facility energy use and improving resilience. However, in order to implement these solutions, federal facilities must identify and execute a strategy for the procurement of these technologies. Federal facilities have successfully completed energy efficiency projects using a variety of procurement options. The purpose of this document is to provide federal agencies with a comprehensive overview of the procurement options available for low temperature geothermal technologies and other energy efficiency projects. The procurement options discussed include third-party financing mechanisms such as energy saving performance contracts (ESPCs), ESPC energy sales agreements (ESPC ESAs), and utility energy service contracts (UESCs), as well as dedicated funds in the form of federal grants and appropriated funds.

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ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (3.8 COP, 18.6 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP).?Single-stage GHPs are able to reduce energy consumption by 31% for the entire stock. Additional results provided below detail how savings changes for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuel and in different climate zones, as well as the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

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ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

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Numerical investigations in three-dimensional internal flows

The general objectives of NASA's Generic Hypersonics Research Program (GHP) are to develop a technology background required for aeronautical research in the hypersonic Mach number flow range. These research efforts are to complement the National Aerospace Plane (NASP) Program and are geared toward the development of experimental and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques. One of the prominent goals of inlet design for high speed applications is to produce an inlet that delivers uniform flow at its exit in the shortest possible distance. In previous studies, the technologies for determining contours for both the ramp and cowl were demonstrated that allowed a nearly shock free exiting flow field to be obtained. This technology was developed further during the present reporting period and applied to a preliminary design investigation of a biconic hypersonic research vehicle with a nearly 2-D inlet attached near the aft end of the vehicle. The results of a parametric investigation of this proposed inlet for freestream Mach numbers between 10 and 15 are described.

Rose, William C.↗

A Critical Survey of Optimization Models for Tactical and Strategic Aspects of Air Traffic Flow Management

This document presents a critical review of the principal existing optimization models that have been applied to Air Traffic Flow Management (TFM). Emphasis will be placed on two problems, the Generalized Tactical Flow Management Problem (GTFMP) and the Ground Holding Problem (GHP), as well as on some of their variations. To perform this task, we have carried out an extensive literature review that has covered more than 40 references, most of them very recent. Based on the review of this emerging field our objectives were to: (i) identify the best available models; (ii) describe typical contexts for applications of the models; (iii) provide illustrative model formulations; and (iv) identify the methodologies that can be used to solve the models. We shall begin our presentation below by providing a brief context for the models that we are reviewing. In Section 3 we shall offer a taxonomy and identify four classes of models for review. In Sections 4, 5, and 6 we shall then review, respectively, models for the Single-Airport Ground Holding Problem, the Generalized Tactical FM P and the Multi-Airport Ground Holding Problem (for the definition of these problems see Section 3 below). In each section, we identify the best available models and discuss briefly their computational performance and applications, if any, to date. Section 7 summarizes our conclusions about the state of the art.

Bertsimas, Dimitris↗

G-Function Library for Modeling Vertical Bore Ground Heat Exchanger

This library contains g-functions (thermal response functions) for standard, regularly spaced vertical borehole ground heat exchangers. In total, it contains 34, 321 configurations. To permit interpolation, each configuration has g-functions for heights of 24, 48, 96, 192, and 384 m. All the g-functions were calculated with burial depths of 2m, and borehole diameters of 15 to 17.5 cm, depending on height. In configurations with uniform spacing, the spacing between the boreholes is set to 5m, though it can be scaled to other horizontal spacings.

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Low-Temperature Geothermal Geospatial Datasets: An Example from Alaska

This project is a component of a broader effort focused on geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) with the aim of illustrating the numerous benefits of incorporating GHC and geothermal heat exchange (GHX) into community energy planning and national decarbonization strategies. To better assist private sector investment, it is currently necessary to define and assess the potential of low-temperature geothermal resources. For shallow GHC/GHX fields, there is no formal compilation of subsurface characteristics shared among industry practitioners that can improve system design and operations. Alaska is specifically noted in this work, because heretofore, it has not received a similar focus in geothermal potential evaluations as the contiguous United States. The methodology consists of leveraging relevant data to generate a baseline geospatial dataset of low-temperature resources (less than 150 degrees C) to compare and analyze information accessible to anyone trying to understand the potential of GHC/GHX and small-scale low-temperature geothermal power in Alaska (e.g., energy modelers, communities, planners, and policymakers). Importantly, this project identifies data related to (1) the evaluation of GHC/GHX in the shallow subsurface, and (2) the evaluation of low-temperature geothermal resource availability. Additionally, data is being compiled to assess repurposing of oil and gas wells to contribute co-produced fluids toward the geothermal direct use and heating and cooling resource potential. In this work we identified new data from three different datasets of isolated geothermal systems in Alaska and bottom-hole temperature data from oil and gas wells that can be leveraged for evaluation of low-temperature geothermal resource potential. The goal of this project is to facilitate future deployment of GHC/GHX analysis and community-led programs and update the low-temperature geothermal resources assessment of Alaska. A better understanding of shallow potential for GHX will improve design and operations of highly efficient GHC systems. The deployment and impact that can be achieved for low-temperature geothermal resources will contribute to decarbonization goals and facilitate widespread electrification by shaving and shifting grid loads.

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Geothermal Heat Pump Case Study: Autumn Gardens Apartment Complex

Geothermal heat pumps can be great alternatives to air conditioners and furnaces, and require less electricity to run. This case study focuses on Autumn Gardens Apartment Complex and is part of a series: https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geothermal-heat-pump-case-studies.

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Geothermal Heat Pump Case Study: The Century Center

Geothermal heat pumps can be great alternatives to air conditioners and furnaces, and require less electricity to run. This case study focuses on The Century Center and is part of a series: https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geothermal-heat-pump-case-studies.

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Geothermal Heat Pump Case Study: College of Southern Idaho

Geothermal heat pumps can be great alternatives to air conditioners and furnaces, and require less electricity to run. This case study focuses on College of Southern Idaho and is part of a series: https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geothermal-heat-pump-case-studies.

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Geothermal Heat Pump Case Study: Dallas-Fort Worth U.S. 287 Bridge

Geothermal heat pumps can be great alternatives to air conditioners and furnaces, and require less electricity to run. This case study focuses on Dallas-Fort Worth U.S. 287 Bridge and is part of a series: https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geothermal-heat-pump-case-studies.

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Geothermal Heat Pump Case Study: Greensburg, Kansas, City Hall

Geothermal heat pumps can be great alternatives to air conditioners and furnaces, and require less electricity to run. This case study focuses on Greensburg, Kansas, City Hall and is part of a series: https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geothermal-heat-pump-case-studies.

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Geothermal Heat Pump Case Study: Marine Corps Logistics Base-Albany

Geothermal heat pumps can be great alternatives to air conditioners and furnaces, and require less electricity to run. This case study focuses on Marine Corps Logistics Base-Albany and is part of a series: https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geothermal-heat-pump-case-studies.

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Geothermal Heat Pump Case Study: Medford Site Veterans Home

Geothermal heat pumps can be great alternatives to air conditioners and furnaces, and require less electricity to run. This case study focuses on Medford Site Veterans Home and is part of a series: https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geothermal-heat-pump-case-studies.

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Geothermal Heat Pump Case Study: Montana State University

Geothermal heat pumps can be great alternatives to air conditioners and furnaces, and require less electricity to run. This case study focuses on Montana State University and is part of a series: https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geothermal-heat-pump-case-studies.

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Geothermal Heat Pump Case Study: Norton Commons, Kentucky

Geothermal heat pumps can be great alternatives to air conditioners and furnaces, and require less electricity to run. This case study focuses on Norton Commons, Kentucky and is part of a series: https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geothermal-heat-pump-case-studies.

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