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At least 37 records · Page 2

Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Aspects of the Martian global circulation

Recent advances in high-speed computers have given atmospheric scientists a new laboratory in which to work. Numerical models of the Earth's atmosphere and its dynamics have provided great insight. Given the lack of observations of the martian atmosphere it is natural to apply such models to help us understand aspects of, for instance, large-scale circulation patterns. A global circulation model of the Earth's atmosphere was modified for use with martian parameters and the relevant regimes of planetary flow were studied.

Collins, Michael↗

QuadTune version 1: a regional tuner for global atmospheric models

When a new, better-formulated physical parameterization is introduced into a global atmospheric model, aspects of the global model solutions are sometimes degraded. Then, in order to use the new global model to address science questions, there is an incentive to restore its accuracy. Oftentimes this restoration is achieved by tuning of model parameter values. Unfortunately, the retuning process is expensive because characterizing the parameter dependence requires numerous time-consuming global simulations. To reduce the cost of tuning, this manuscript introduces a “poor man's” model tuner, “QuadTune”. QuadTune carves the globe into regions and approximates the model parameter dependence through the use of an uncorrelated quadratic emulator (i.e., response surface). The simplicity of the emulator reduces the required number of global model simulations and aids explainability of tuner behavior. Tuning removes parametric error but leaves behind model structural error. Structural error manifests itself as regional residual biases, such as stubborn biases and tuning trade-offs. To visualize these residual biases, QuadTune's software includes a set of diagnostic plots. This paper illustrates the use of the plots for characterizing residual biases with an example tuning problem.

Environmental sciences↗

Language Independent Static Analysis (LISA)

Software is becoming increasingly important in nearly every aspect of global society and therefore in nearly every aspect of national security as well. While there have been major advancements in recent years in formally proving properties of program source code during development, such approaches are still in the minority among development teams, and the vast majority of code in this software explosion is produced without such properties. In these cases, the source code must be analyzed in order to establish whether the properties of interest hold. Because of the volume of software being produced, automated approaches to software analysis are necessary to meet the need. However, this software boom is not occurring in just one language. There are a wide range of languages of interest in national security spaces, including well-known languages such as C, C++, Python, Java, Javascript, and many more. But recent years have produced a wide range of new languages, including Nim, (2008), Go (2009), Rust (2010), Dart (2011), Kotlin (2011), Elixir (2011), Red (2011), Julia (2012), Typescript (2012), Swift (2014), Hack (2014), Crystal (2014), Ballerina (2017) and more. Historically, automated software analyses are implemented as tools that intermingle both the analysis question at hand with target language dependencies throughout their code, making re-use of components for different analysis questions or different target languages impractical. This project seeks to explore how mission-relevant, static software analyses can be designed and constructed in a language-independent fashion, dramatically increasing the reusability of software analysis investments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Does Regional Hydroclimate Change Scale Linearly With Global Warming?

Many aspects of climate change scale linearly with global warming. However, nonlinear changes are possible, especially in the context of hydroclimate, and under emissions scenarios with stabilized global temperature, as aspired to by current climate targets. In CMIP5 and 6, a progressively larger land area shows nonlinear changes as a function of global warming when considering precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture, with the latter showing nonlinearity over ~50% of global land. Here, using ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model 1, in which individual forcing factors are held constant, we illustrate how nonadditive responses to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and industrial and fire-related aerosols can yield complex soil moisture changes in certain regions. This complexity contributes to uncertainty in regional soil moisture projections and suggests that the timing of, as well as model response uncertainty to, future aerosol reductions will have significant impacts on regional hydroclimate change as global temperatures stabilize.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Lau, K. M.↗

Technical descriptions of the experimental dynamical downscaling simulations over North America by the CAM–MPAS variable-resolution model

Abstract. Comprehensive assessment of climate datasets is important for communicating model projections and associated uncertainties to stakeholders. Uncertainties can arise not only from assumptions and biases within the model but also from external factors such as computational constraint and data processing. To understand sources of uncertainties in global variable-resolution (VR) dynamical downscaling, we produced a regional climate dataset using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS; dynamical core version 4.0) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM; version 5.4), which we refer to as CAM–MPAS hereafter. This document provides technical details of the model configuration, simulations, computational requirements, post-processing, and data archive of the experimental CAM–MPAS downscaling data. The CAM–MPAS model is configured with VR meshes featuring higher resolutions over North America as well as quasi-uniform-resolution meshes across the globe. The dataset includes multiple uniform- (240 and 120 km) and variable-resolution (50–200, 25–100, and 12–46 km) simulations for both the present-day (1990–2010) and future (2080–2100) periods, closely following the protocol of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. A deviation from the protocol is the pseudo-warming experiment for the future period, using the ocean boundary conditions produced by adding the sea surface temperature and sea-ice changes from the low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to the present-day ocean state from a reanalysis product. Some unique aspects of global VR models are evaluated to provide background knowledge to data users and to explore good practices for modelers who use VR models for regional downscaling. In the coarse-resolution domain, strong resolution sensitivity of the hydrological cycles exists over the tropics but does not appear to affect the midlatitude circulations in the Northern Hemisphere, including the downscaling target of North America. The pseudo-warming experiment leads to similar responses of large-scale circulations to the imposed radiative and boundary forcings in the CAM–MPAS and MPI-ESM-LR models, but their climatological states in the historical period differ over various regions, including North America. Such differences are carried to the future period, suggesting the importance of the base state climatology. Within the refined domain, precipitation statistics improve with higher resolutions, and such statistical inference is verified to be negligibly influenced by horizontal remapping during post-processing. Limited (≈50 % slower) throughput of the current code is found on a recent many-core/wide-vector high-performance computing system, which limits the lengths of the 12–46 km simulations and indirectly affects sampling uncertainty. Our experience shows that global and technical aspects of the VR downscaling framework require further investigations to reduce uncertainties for regional climate projection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interdisciplinary research in global biogeochemical cycling Nitrous oxide in terrestrial ecosystems

NASA has begun an interdisciplinary research program to investigate various aspects of Global Biology and Global Habitability. An important element selected for the study of global phenomena is related to biogeochemical cycling. The studies involve a collaboration with recognized scientists in the areas of plant physiology, microbiology, nutrient cycling theory, and related areas. Selected subjects of study include nitrogen cycling dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems with special attention to biosphere/atmosphere interactions, and an identification of sensitive response variables which can be used in ecosystem models based on parameters derived from remotely sensed variables. A description is provided of the progress and findings over the past two years. Attention is given to the characteristics of nitrous oxide emissions, the approach followed in the investigations, the selection of study sites, radiometric measurements, and research in Sequoia.

Norman, S. D.↗

Quantum work of an optical lattice

A classic example of a quantum quench concerns the release of an interacting Bose gas from an optical lattice. The local properties of quenches such as this have been extensively studied; however, the global properties of these nonequilibrium quantum systems have received far less attention. Here we study several aspects of global nonequilibrium behavior by calculating the amount of work done by the quench as measured through the work distribution function. Using Bethe ansatz techniques, we determine the Loschmidt amplitude and work distribution function of the Lieb-Liniger gas after it is released from an optical lattice. We find the average work and its universal edge exponents from which we determine the long-time decay of the Loschmidt echo and highlight striking differences caused by the interactions as well as changes in the geometry of the system. We extend our calculation to the attractive regime of the model and show that the system exhibits properties similar to the super-Tonks-Girardeau gas. Lastly, we examine the prominent role played by bound states in the work distribution and show that, with low probability, they allow for work to be extracted from the quench.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Global organic and inorganic aerosol hygroscopicity and its effect on radiative forcing

The climate effects of atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) depend on chemical composition and hygroscopicity, which are highly variable on spatial and temporal scales. Here we present global CCN measurements, covering diverse environments from pristine to highly polluted conditions. We show that the effective aerosol hygroscopicity, κ, can be derived accurately from the fine aerosol mass fractions of organic particulate matter (ϵ org ) and inorganic ions (ϵ inorg ) through a linear combination, κ = ϵ org · κ org + ϵ inorg · κ inorg . In spite of the chemical complexity of organic matter, its hygroscopicity is well captured and represented by a global average value of κ org = 0.12 ± 0.02 with κinorg = 0.63 ± 0.01 as the corresponding value for inorganic ions. By showing that the sensitivity of global climate forcing to changes in κ org and κ inorg is small, we constrain a critically important aspect of global climate modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of TRMM and SSM/I Rainfall Assimilation on Global Analysis and QPF

Evaluation of QPF skills requires quantitatively accurate precipitation analyses. We show that assimilation of surface rain rates derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) improves quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and many aspects of global analyses. Short-range forecasts initialized with analyses with satellite rainfall data generally yield significantly higher QPF threat scores and better storm track predictions. These results were obtained using a variational procedure that minimizes the difference between the observed and model rain rates by correcting the moist physics tendency of the forecast model over a 6h assimilation window. In two case studies of Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, synoptic analysis shows that this procedure produces initial conditions with better-defined tropical storm features and stronger precipitation intensity associated with the storm.

Hou, Arthur↗

Scoping Review of Global Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Activities

This technical report documents an inventory of offshore geologic carbon storage (GCS) sites globally, with a focus on existing, operating international sites and those characterized in the United States, indicating the type and variety of GCS efforts. Regional overviews provide a high-level understanding of basin-scale geology and history of GCS globally. Key aspects documented in this review include geological formation types, depth, play style, project size, timeline, existing infrastructure, environmental challenges, and potential risks. This review also includes a summary of the regulatory frameworks globally, as well as environmental, social, and commercial considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scoping Review of Global Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Activities

This technical report documents an inventory of offshore geologic carbon storage (GCS) sites globally, with a focus on existing, operating international sites and those characterized in the United States, indicating the type and variety of GCS efforts. Regional overviews provide a high level understanding of basin-scale geology and history of GCS globally. Key aspects documented in this review include geological formation types, depth, play style, project size, timeline, existing infrastructure, environmental challenges, and potential risks. This review also includes a summary of the regulatory frameworks globally, as well as environmental, social, and commercial considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Generalized symmetries and Noether’s theorem in $\mathrm{QFT}$

We show that generalized symmetries cannot be charged under a continuous global symmetry having a Noether current. Further, only non-compact generalized symmetries can be charged under a continuous global symmetry. These results follow from a finer classification of twist operators, which naturally extends to finite group global symmetries. They unravel topological obstructions to the strong version of Noether’s theorem in QFT, even if under general conditions a global symmetry can be implemented locally by twist operators (weak version). We use these results to rederive Weinberg-Witten’s theorem within local QFT, generalizing it to massless particles in arbitrary dimensions and representations of the Lorentz group. Several examples with local twists but without Noether currents are described. We end up discussing the conditions for the strong version to hold, dynamical aspects of QFT’s with non-compact generalized symmetries, scale vs conformal invariance in QFT, connections with the Coleman-Mandula theorem and aspects of global symmetries in quantum gravity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An analysis of the relationship between cloud anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies in a global circulation model

The relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalies of the monthly mean cloud cover (including the high-level, low-level, and total cloud cover), the outgoing longwave radiation, and the reflected solar radiation was analyzed using a least absolute deviations regression at each grid point over the open ocean for a 6-yr period. The results indicate that cloud change in association with a local 1-C increase in SSTAs cannot be used to predict clouds in a potential future world where all the oceans are 1-C warmer than at present, because much of the observed cloud changes are due to circulation changes, which in turn are related not only to changes in SSTAs but to changes in SSTA gradients. However, because SSTAs are associated with changes in the local ocean-atmosphere moisture and heat fluxes as well as significant changes in circulation (such as ENSO), SSTAs can serve as a surrogate for many aspects of global climate change.

Peterson, Thomas C.↗

Current Trends in Satellite Laser Ranging

Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) techniques are used to accurately measure the distance from ground stations to retroreflectors on satellites and the moon. SLR is one of the fundamental techniques that define the international Terrestrial Reference Frame (iTRF), which is the basis upon which we measure many aspects of global change over space, time, and evolving technology. It is one of the fundamental techniques that define at a level of precision of a few mm the origin and scale of the ITRF. Laser Ranging provides precision orbit determination and instrument calibration/validation for satellite-borne altimeters for the better understanding of sea level change, ocean dynamics, ice budget, and terrestrial topography. Laser ranging is also a tool to study the dynamics of the Moon and fundamental constants. Many of the GNSS satellites now carry retro-reflectors for improved orbit determination, harmonization of reference frames, and in-orbit co-location and system performance validation. The GNSS Constellations will be the means of making the reference frame available to worldwide users. Data and products from these measurements support key aspects of the GEOSS 10-Year implementation Plan adopted on February 16, 2005, The ITRF has been identified as a key contribution of the JAG to GEOSS and the ILRS makes a major contribution for its development since its foundation. The ILRS delivers weekly additional realizations that are accumulated sequentially to extend the ITRF and the Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) series with a daily resolution. Additional products are currently under development such as precise orbits of satellites, EOP with daily availability, low-degree gravitational harmonics for studies of Earth dynamics and kinematics, etc. SLR technology continues to evolve toward the next generation laser ranging systems as programmatic requirements become more stringent. Ranging accuracy is improving as higher repetition rate, narrower pulse lasers and faster detectors are implemented. Automation and pass interleaving at some stations is already expanding temporal coverage. Web-based safety keys are allowing the SLR network stations to range to optically vulnerable satellites. Some stations are experimenting with two-wavelength operation as a means of better understanding the atmospheric refraction and with very low power laser to improve eye-safety conditions. New retroreflector designs are improving the signal link and enable daylight ranging. Dramatic improvements have also been made with lunar ranging with the new APOLLO Site in New ?Mexico, USA and the upgraded lunar station "MEO" in Grasse,

Pearlman, M. R.↗

Nuclear Crisis Communication in an Era of Fake News and Media Overload - 19414

Over the past several decades, the nuclear industry has worked diligently to improve the security and safety aspects of their technology, but it has failed to meet the challenge of the public's negative perception. Studies have shown that nuclear energy and nuclear waste evoke fear among the general populace because people see risks as immediate, unknown, uncontrollable, and potentially catastrophic. To some extent, negative public perception challenges for the nuclear industry are primarily a consequence of its own inability to communicate the benefits of nuclear science effectively with the lay public. While effective and trustworthy communication cannot guarantee success, it helps shape public opinion, and for a routinely misperceived project like a nuclear facility, that is paramount. Fukushima was the first nuclear accident to occur in the world where citizens have access to 24/7 news channels and the ability to respond in a real-time manner through social media outlets. Following the Fukushima accident, social media sites were filled with information regarding nuclear energy that were based more on mass rumor and even paranoia than facts. More locally, we have seen this trend following what was a minor external radiation release event at the WIPP in February 14, 2014. Many online news sources were flooded with anti-nuke stories aimed at pushing a fear of radiation, such as inferring an increase in cancer rates among the public from this minor incident; which was exactly the opposite of what was true. Today, when the public gets its news from social media and online sources, people are faced with rapidly changing and contrasting interpretations of the same story, depending on when they accessed the latest news. They are also increasingly vulnerable to fake news, including disinformation deliberately planted and cultivated by the anti-nuclear movement. Public reactions following these nuclear events reinforced the value of effective communication in maintaining the high level of transparency necessary for long-term, local acceptance and support for nuclear facilities. A lack of trustworthy communication leaves a vacuum that can be quickly filled by rumors and fake information. When dealing with a nuclear crisis, failure to recognize the rapidly changing and contrasting media framing, or believing fake news could have very real and catastrophic consequences. Trusted organizations must swiftly take charge and guide the way in which the crisis is framed to keep the public adequately and accurately informed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Neptunium-Based High-Flux Pulsed Research Reactor

The design principles and parameters of a promising neutron source, based on the fission reaction of the isotope {sup 237}Np, for use in research in extracted beams are presented. Such a source can operate as a pulsing reactor or super-booster or as a super-booster multiplying the neutrons from the target of a proton accelerator by using a reactivity modulator. Owing to the threshold character of {sup 237}Np fission such a neutron source will possess significantly higher characteristics than a similar setup with plutonium, and in terms of utilization efficiency it will be the leading source in the world for research employing neutron spectroscopy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗