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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning of a crystal plasticity flow rule from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations

Continuum-scale material deformation models, such as crystal plasticity (CP), can significantly enhance their predictive accuracy by incorporating input from lower-scale (i.e. mesoscale) models. The procedure to generate and extract the relevant information is however typically complex and ad hoc, involving decision and intervention by domain experts, leading to long development times. In this study, we develop a principled approach for calibration of continuum-scale models using lower scale information by representing a CP flow rule as a Gaussian process model. This representation allows for efficient parameter space exploration, guided by the uncertainty embedded in the model through a process known as Bayesian optimization (BO). We demonstrate a semi-autonomous BO loop which instantiates discrete dislocation dynamics simulations whose initial conditions are automatically chosen to optimize the uncertainty of a model CP flow rule. Our self-guided computational pipeline efficiently generated a dataset and corresponding model whose error, uncertainty, and physical feature sensitivities were validated with comparison to an independent dataset four times larger, demonstrating a valuable and efficient active learning implementation readily transferable to similar material systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

To meet PIP-II upgrade requirements, Fermilab Booster losses need to be reduced by 50% compared to present levels. So far, simulations are not good enough to predict loss patterns. Thus, an extensive Booster tune up will be necessary to achieve required performance. In this paper we present an effort to build a data-driven loss model using Bayesian techniques, and subsequently to rebalance losses for higher trip margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. Novel techniques of uncertainty constraints and approximate GP fitting were introduced to handle safety and timing requirements. We then performed single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives comprised of critical beam loss locations. We achieved significant rebalancing of losses, increasing margins by 25%, as well as an overall improvement in transmission efficiency of 0.4%. Automated data collection is being developed so that more accurate surrogate models can be trained over time.

Kuklev, N. [Fermilab]↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Comparison of Metamodeling Techniques via Numerical Experiments

This paper presents a comparative analysis of a few metamodeling techniques using numerical experiments for the single input-single output case. These experiments enable comparing the models' predictions with the phenomenon they are aiming to describe as more data is made available. These techniques include (i) prediction intervals associated with a least squares parameter estimate, (ii) Bayesian credible intervals, (iii) Gaussian process models, and (iv) interval predictor models. Aspects being compared are computational complexity, accuracy (i.e., the degree to which the resulting prediction conforms to the actual Data Generating Mechanism), reliability (i.e., the probability that new observations will fall inside the predicted interval), sensitivity to outliers, extrapolation properties, ease of use, and asymptotic behavior. The numerical experiments describe typical application scenarios that challenge the underlying assumptions supporting most metamodeling techniques.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

Fermilab Booster is being upgraded for the PIP-II project to support 20Hz ramp rate at higher intensities. Loss trip limits determine the achievable peak power. To meet PIP-II requirements, losses need to be halved as compared to current levels. Losses primarily occur at injection and transition crossing, with both gradually increasing and threshold-like intensity-dependent behaviors. The existing simulation models are not yet good enough for quantitative loss predictions. In practice, it will be necessary to tune up the Booster using iterative methods and operator intuition. In this paper we present an effort to systematically model Booster losses using active learning (Bayesian exploration) techniques, and subsequently to rebalance them for higher trip limit margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. This is a complex task due to safety and timing requirements – we discuss mitigations such as uncertainty constraints and approximate fitting. Once models are stable, we perform large-scale single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives made up of critical beam loss locations. Our results demonstrate significant rebalancing of losses, increasing trip margins, as well as an overall improvement in beam transmission efficiency. We are exploring how to combine existing simulations with experimental data and automate the collection procedure so that more advanced surrogate models can be created over time.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Nuclear Graphite Property Models Accounting for Model Inadequacy and Impacts on Component Performance

Nuclear-grade structural graphite is extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity requires accurate models of graphite's thermomechanical response. This report documents the Bayesian calibration of thermomechanical properties for nuclear-grade graphite and their application to graphite component modeling and simulation using the Grizzly code. As part of this work, uncertainty-quantified models were developed for the elastic modulus, coefficient of thermal expansion, irradiation-induced dimensional change, and irradiation-induced creep for graphite grades IG-110, NBG-18, NBG-17, PCEA, and 2114. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources were combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due to inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data were quantified for three different models. These uncertainty-quantified models, with a model-form correction, were subsequently applied to a coupled-physics simulation of representative graphite components, revealing that the uncertainties have a large impact on the components' deformation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimization for Reactor Design Optimization

This study present a test case in which the Bayesian Optimization method is applied to a simulation-based reactor core design optimization problem. The test case aims to showcase the potential of an automated design optimization algorithm for reactor designs by streamlining the reactor core design workflow, given the high computational cost of simulations. The contributions of this work are threefold. First, the existing HTGR model is converted into a simulation-based design optimization test case by developing a pipeline that enables modification of key design parameters and evaluates design performance based on simulation outputs. Second, Bayesian Optimization is implemented and adapted to demonstrate the feasibility of automatic design optimization for nuclear reactor core. Proposed approach leverages Gaussian Process models to characterize the relationship between design variables and performance metrics, while incorporating novel acquisition functions that balance exploration of the design space with exploitation of promising configurations. This implementation lays the foundation for the future developments of reactor design optimization algorithms.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of differential scanning calorimetry data for aged plutonium

Differential scanning calorimetry data for samples of a 52 year old plutonium alloy with 3.3 at. % Ga that were heated beyond the melting point is analyzed using transition state theory to find activation energies for the δ to ε and ε to liquid phase transitions. A Bayesian statistical method involving a Gaussian process model is used to find mean values and confidence intervals for the activation energies. The activation energy for the δ to ε phase transition increases by 3.3 ± 3.8% per decade, relative to the case when all age related plutonium lattice point defects have been removed through annealing. The corresponding increase in activation energy for the ε to liquid transition is shown to be 7.1 ± 1.8% per decade. It is postulated that the change in activation energy with age for both phase transitions is caused, in part, by the accumulation of the same type of lattice point defects associated with the observed increase in elastic bulk modulus over time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fully Bayesian Analysis With Model Inadequacy Correction For Nuclear Graphite Property Models With Hierarchical Variance Structure

Nuclear-grade graphites are extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. Within the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, such as nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity, forecasting component performance over the reactor's lifespan, and developing design standards necessitate robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components within nuclear reactors. This code enables the Bayesian calibration of properties for nuclear-grade graphites. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources are combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data are quantified.

Dhulipala, Som Lakshmi NarasimhaLakshmi Narasimha ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Construction of the damped Ly⁢𝛼 absorber catalog for DESI DR2 Ly⁢𝛼 BAO

We present the Damped Ly⁢𝛼 Toolkit for automated detection and characterization of damped Ly⁢𝛼 absorbers (DLAs) in quasar spectra. Our method uses quasar spectral templates with and without absorption from intervening DLAs to reconstruct observed quasar forest regions. The best-fitting model determines whether a DLA is present while estimating the redshift and HI column density. With an optimized quality cut on detection significance (Δ⁢𝜒$^{2}_{𝑟}$ >0.03), the technique achieves an estimated 80% purity and 79% completeness when evaluated on simulated spectra with S/N>2 that are free of broad absorption lines (BALs). We provide a catalog containing candidate DLAs from the DLA Toolkit detected in DESI DR1 quasar spectra, of which 21 719 were found in S/N>2 spectra with predicted log 10 ⁡(𝑁 𝙷𝙸 )>20.3 and detection significance Δ⁢𝜒$^{2}_{𝑟}$ >0.03. We compare the Damped Ly⁢𝛼 Toolkit to two alternative DLA finders based on a convolutional neural network and Gaussian process models. We present a strategy for combining these three techniques to produce a high-fidelity DLA catalog from DESI DR2 for the Ly⁢𝛼 forest baryon acoustic oscillation measurement. The combined catalog contains 41 152 candidate DLAs with log 10 ⁡(𝑁 𝙷𝙸 )>20.3 from quasar spectra with S/N>2. We estimate this sample to be approximately 85% pure and 79% complete when BAL quasars are excluded.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of uncertainties in electron-argon collision cross sections

Abstract The predictive capability of a plasma discharge model depends on accurate representations of electron-impact collision cross sections, which determine the corresponding reaction rates and electron transport properties. The values of cross sections can be known only approximately either through experiments or simulations and are thus subject to uncertainties. Quantifying the uncertainties in plasma simulations allows us to assess the reliability of simulations and to provide a basis for interpreting discrepancies between simulations and experiments. For such uncertainty quantification of plasma simulations, it is essential to quantify the uncertainties of the underlying cross sections. Although much effort has been committed to calibrate the cross section values, their uncertainties are not well investigated. We characterize uncertainties in electron-argon atom collision cross sections using a Bayesian framework. Six collision processes—elastic momentum transfer, ionization, and four excitations—are characterized with semi-empirical models, which effectively capture the features important to the macroscopic properties of the plasma. A probability model for the uncertain parameters of these semi-empirical models is developed. Specifically, a Gaussian-process likelihood model is proposed to capture discrepancies among data sets, as well as the model-form inadequacies of the semi-empirical models. Two other likelihood models are compared with the proposed Gaussian-process model, to illustrate the importance of the choice of the likelihood model. The cross section models are calibrated using the electron-beam experiments and ab-inito quantum simulations. The resulting calibrated uncertainties capture well the scattering among the data sets. The calibrated cross section models are further validated against swarm-parameter experiments and zero-dimensional Boltzmann equation simulations of widely used cross section datasets.

Chung, Seung Whan (ORCID:0000000302501549)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coil optimization for quasi-helically symmetric stellarator configurations

Filament-based coil optimizations are performed for several quasi-helical stellarator configurations, beginning with the one from Landreman & Paul ( Phys. Rev. Lett. , vol. 128, 2022, 035001), demonstrating that precise quasi-helical symmetry can be achieved with realistic coils. Several constraints are placed on the shape and spacing of the coils, such as low curvature and sufficient plasma–coil distance for neutron shielding. The coils resulting from this optimization have a maximum curvature 0.8 times that of the coils of the Helically Symmetric eXperiment (HSX) and a mean squared curvature 0.4 times that of the HSX coils when scaled to the same plasma minor radius. When scaled up to reactor size and magnetic field strength, no fast particle losses were found in the free-boundary configuration when simulating 5000 alpha particles launched at $3.5\,\mathrm {MeV}$ on the flux surface with a normalized toroidal flux of $s=0.5$ . An analysis of the tolerance of the coils to manufacturing errors is performed using a Gaussian process model, and the coils are found to maintain low particle losses for smooth, large-scale errors up to amplitudes of approximately $0.15\,\mathrm {m}$ . Another coil optimization is performed for the Landreman–Paul configuration with the additional constraint that the coils are purely planar. Visual inspection of the Poincaré plot of the resulting magnetic field-lines reveal that the planar modular coils alone do a poor job of reproducing the target equilibrium. Additional non-planar coil optimizations are performed for the quasi-helical configuration with $5\,\%$ volume-averaged plasma beta from Landreman et al. ( Phys. Plasma , vol. 29, issue 8, 2022, 082501), and a similar configuration also optimized to satisfy the Mercier criterion. The finite beta configurations had larger fast-particle losses, with the free-boundary Mercier-optimized configuration performing the worst, losing approximately $5.5\,\%$ of alpha particles launched at $s=0.5$ .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A general Bayesian algorithm for the autonomous alignment of beamlines

Autonomous methods to align beamlines can decrease the amount of time spent on diagnostics, and also uncover better global optima leading to better beam quality. The alignment of these beamlines is a high-dimensional expensive-to-sample optimization problem involving the simultaneous treatment of many optical elements with correlated and nonlinear dynamics. Bayesian optimization is a strategy of efficient global optimization that has proved successful in similar regimes in a wide variety of beamline alignment applications, though it has typically been implemented for particular beamlines and optimization tasks. In this paper, we present a basic formulation of Bayesian inference and Gaussian process models as they relate to multi-objective Bayesian optimization, as well as the practical challenges presented by beamline alignment. We show that the same general implementation of Bayesian optimization with special consideration for beamline alignment can quickly learn the dynamics of particular beamlines in an online fashion through hyperparameter fitting with no prior information. We present the implementation of a concise software framework for beamline alignment and test it on four different optimization problems for experiments on X-ray beamlines at the National Synchrotron Light Source II and the Advanced Light Source, and an electron beam at the Accelerator Test Facility, along with benchmarking on a simulated digital twin. We discuss new applications of the framework, and the potential for a unified approach to beamline alignment at synchrotron facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Safe Reinforcement Learning-Based Transient Stability Control for Islanded Microgrids With Topology Reconfiguration

This paper proposes a safe reinforcement learning (RL)-based transient stability emergency control (TSEC) method for islanded microgrids. RL requires extensive interaction with the environment to learn control strategies, hence, a data-driven approach is used as a substitute for time-consuming time-domain simulation calculations. Deep sigma point processes (DSPP), which is a Gaussian process model, is utilized to predict the normal distribution of transient stability of microgrids and to construct a transient stability chance constraint. Reward-constrained policy optimization (RCPO) can simultaneously achieve objective prediction, policy learning, and constraint cost coefficient update across multiple timescales. RCPO interacts with the DSPP-based microgrid environment through a multi-process parallel manner, greatly increasing the training speed. Case studies on a real islanded microgrid demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently and quickly obtain the optimal emergency control strategy while adhering to all hard constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of Automated Atom Probe Tomography capability to study the influence of applied voltage and laser power on the final apparent composition of the analyzed specimen

This study presents the development and implementation of an autonomous Bayesian optimization (BO) framework for controlling and optimizing experimental parameters in Atom Probe Tomography (APT). Using commercial silicon needle samples as a benchmark system, we demonstrate that BO can efficiently navigate the complex parameter space of voltage and laser power to achieve target charge state ratios (specifically Si + /(Si + +Si 2+ )) with minimal experimental evaluations. Our implementation integrates Gaussian Process modeling with the CAMECA atom probe control framework, enabling autonomous adjustment of experimental conditions in real-time. Results show that the algorithm successfully converges to target ratios under different scenarios: maintaining a reference ratio, increasing the ratio (favoring Si 1+ ), and decreasing the ratio (favoring Si 2+ ). The system adapts to specimen evolution during analysis, compensating for changes in apex geometry while maintaining optimization targets. This work establishes a proof of concept for AI-driven optimization in APT, addressing the traditional challenges of manual parameter tuning and paving the way for applications to more complex materials where compositional accuracy is critical.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2018

Space-Filling Designs for Multi-Layer Nested Factors

This articles considers computer experiments where levels for continuous factors are selected in sequential order with the level selected for one factor directly a ecting the range of possible levels for the nested factor, and so on for a nite number of factors. In addition, we assume the nested relationships between the factors have no closed form solution. In this paper, we propose an approach for constructing a multi-layer nested factor design, or multi-NFD for short. This space- lling design approach takes advan- tage of the maximin criterion and can be analyzed using a standard Gaussian process model. While the multi-NFD approach can be adapted for future computer experi- ments involving factor relationships of this type, we present results from a particular aerospace computer simulation study.

Gryder, Ryan W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-smooth Bayesian optimization in tuning scientific applications

Tuning algorithmic parameters to optimize the performance of large, complicated computational codes is an important problem involving finding the optima and identifying regimes defined by non-smooth boundaries in black-box functions. Within the Bayesian optimization framework, the Gaussian process surrogate model produces smooth mean functions, but functions in the tuning problem are often non-smooth, which is exacerbated by the fact that we usually have limited sequential samples from the black-box function. Here, motivated by these issues encountered in tuning, we propose a novel Gaussian process model called a clustered Gaussian process (cGP), where the components are dynamically updated by clustering. In our studies, the performance of cGP can be better than stationary GPs in nearly 90% of the experiments and better than non-stationary GPs in nearly 70% of the repeated experiments while requiring less computational cost. cGP provides a novel approach for dynamic GP, computes more efficiently than recursive partitioning, and discovers non-smoothness regimes. We provide extensive experiments including high-performance computing (HPC) and industrial simulation functions to show the effectiveness of our methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics Model For The Agn-201 Dt

The surrogate model is a Gaussian Process Regression model based on sci-kit learn. The model takes the coarse and fine control rod position, along with the temperature of the reactor, and produces a corresponding k-eff value. Given k-eff over time, deviations can be determine and flagged for review at a later date.

Stewart, RyanH. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayes_Opt-SWMM: A Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization tool for real-time flood modeling with SWMM

Real-time flood model plays a pivotal role in averting urban flood damage, particularly when there is minimal lead time for preparatory measures. However, urban flood modeling in real-time often contends with inherent uncertainties arising from input data uncertainty and parameter ambiguities. Here this study introduces a real-time calibration (RTC) tool called Bayes_Opt-SWMM, specifically tailored for real-time urban flood modeling and uncertainty optimization. This tool leverages the Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization algorithm and interfaces seamlessly with the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). It integrates real-time model forcing data and flood monitoring collected through sensors and gauges which are strategically placed within critical locations of urban drainage systems. Our approach hinges on the Surrogate Model based Uncertainty Optimization (SMUO) concept, providing an avenue for enhancing real-time flood modeling. Bayes_Opt-SWMM runs the optimization process using a surrogate model called Gaussian Process emulator with two inference methods: (1) the Gaussian Process (GP) model and (2) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in GP model (GP_MCMC). Furthermore, three acquisition functions, namely Expected Improvement (EI), Maximum Probability of Improvement (MPI), and Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), facilitate optimal parameter fitting within the surrogate models. The efficiency of GP-based surrogate models in learning SWMM model parameters, leads to an improved uncertainty quantification and accelerated real-time flood modeling in urban areas. Overall, Bayes_Opt-SWMM emerges as a cost-effective and valuable tool for real-time flood modeling and monitoring, with significant potential for managing intelligent storm water systems in urban environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗