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Some effects of experimental error in fracture testing

Effects of experimental imprecision on the stress intensity factors calculated for various practical specimen types are shown. A general form equation for the stress intensity factor is presented and a general error equation is derived. The expected error in the stress intensity factor is given in terms of the precision levels of the basic experimental measurements and derivatives of the stress intensity calibration factor. Nine common fracture specimen types are considered, and the sensitivity of the various types to experimental error is illustrated. Some implications for fracture toughness testing and crack growth rate testing are discussed and methods of analysis are proposed to compensate for the effects of experimental error.

Orange, T. W.

A comparative study of spherical and flat-Earth geopotential modeling at satellite elevations

Flat-Earth and spherical-Earth geopotential modeling of crustal anomaly sources at satellite elevations are compared by computing gravity and scalar magnetic anomalies perpendicular to the strike of variably dimensioned rectangular prisms at altitudes of 150, 300, and 450 km. Results indicate that the error caused by the flat-Earth approximation is less than 10% in most geometric conditions. Generally, error increase with larger and wider anomaly sources at higher altitudes. For most crustal source modeling applications at conventional satellite altitudes, flat-Earth modeling can be justified and is numerically efficient.

Parrott, M. H.

Implementation of A New Microwave Scattering Database and A Forward Model for Active Microwave Sensors in CRTM

Radiative transfer models are extensively used for the assimilation of satellite observations into NWP models as well as retrieving geophysical products from satellite measurements. CRTM is a community model developed by NOAA JCSDA and widely used for different purposes requiring RT calculations. CRTM requires bulk scattering lookup tables in order to perform all-sky RT calculations. However, the current CRTM lookup tables for microwave frequencies were generated based on the Mie theory by assuming spherical frozen particles. The scattering lookup tables generated using the DDA technique has shown to largely improve the RT scattering calculations in the MW region. This presentation targets (i) the implementation and validation of a DDA database that was originally developed for the ARTS RT model into CRTM, and (ii) developing the CRTM active sensor module that takes advantage of the backscattering coefficients computed using the DDA method. The DDA database only provides single scattering properties of different habits, while CRTM requires bulk scattering properties. The CRTM cloud coefficients were previously generated based on the effective radius for representing the size of the particles. However, effective radius is neither measurable nor provided by the NWP models, thus need to be estimated from other geophysical variables such as water content. Therefore, in addition to calculating the CRTM bulk scattering properties from the DDA single scattering database, the CRTM was also largely modified to use cloud water content (kg.m-3), instead of effective radius, for performing the interpolation over size/mass of the particles. CRTM already requires water content as input, thus no extra variables are required for performing scattering calculations using the new ARTS DDA database. The CRTM scattering modules search for effective radius in cloud coefficient files and will use the cloud water content if the effective radius dimension is not found in the cloud coefficient files. Figure 1 shows the CRTM simulated brightness temperatures computed using different cloud coefficients versus ATMS observed values over Hurricane Irma on September 7, 2017 at 18:00 UTC. We used all the cloud water content values included in ERA5 with default CRTM/DDA habits for water, rain, snow, ice, hail, and graupel. ERA5 does not provide separate water content values for ice, hail, and graupel, thus the ice water content values were divided between ice, hail, and graupel clouds similar to what was explained in the previous section. In channels with a frequency lower than 90 GHz, emission from water and rain clouds can compensate for cloud scattering so that cloud contaminated Tbs are larger than corresponding clear sky Tbs. The DDA simulations for channels 1-7 largely perform better than the Mie simulations. The DDA simulations show a mix of small negative and positive simulated minus observed values, while the Mie results show large negative biases. The weighting functions for some of the ATMS temperature sounding channels (channels 9-15) peak mostly above the clouds, therefore the measured Tbs become less sensitive to clouds so that the results of both Mie and DDA become very similar. The Mie lookup tables generate excessive scattering for channel 16, but not enough scattering for the water vapor channels. In the specific case of Hurricane Maria, the DDA lookup tables do not generate enough scattering for channel 16, but the DDA results are much more consistent with observations for water vapor channels than for channel 16. It should be noted that the results may vary if we use other habits to represent snow, hail, and graupel in the DDA simulations. Although these results clearly show the advantage of the DDA database over the Mie dataset, different error sources such as error in the observations, displacement of clouds in the ERA5 reanalysis, and also lack of convective clouds or in general errors in the input atmospheric and cloud profiles contribute to the differences between the simulated and observed values. Aside from the improvements in the simulations, a major advantage of the new dataset is a large number of habits that can be used to tune the data assimilation systems to perform well in different weather conditions.

Isaac Moradi

Some effects of experimental error in fracture testing.

The purpose of this paper is to show the effects of experimental imprecision on the stress intensity factors calculated for various practical specimen types. A general form equation for the stress intensity factor is presented, and a general error equation is derived. The expected error in the stress intensity factor is given in terms of the precision levels of the basic experimental measurements and derivatives of the stress intensity calibration factor. Nine common fracture specimen types are considered, and the sensitivity of the various types to experimental error is illustrated. Some implications for fracture toughness testing and crack growth rate testing are discussed, and methods of analysis are proposed to compensate for the effects of experimental error.

Orange, T. W.

Comparison of Kalman filter and optimal smoother estimates of spacecraft attitude

Given a valid system model and adequate observability, a Kalman filter will converge toward the true system state with error statistics given by the estimated error covariance matrix. The errors generally do not continue to decrease. Rather, a balance is reached between the gain of information from new measurements and the loss of information during propagation. The errors can be further reduced, however, by a second pass through the data with an optimal smoother. This algorithm obtains the optimally weighted average of forward and backward propagating Kalman filters. It roughly halves the error covariance by including future as well as past measurements in each estimate. This paper investigates whether such benefits actually accrue in the application of an optimal smoother to spacecraft attitude determination. Tests are performed both with actual spacecraft data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and with simulated data for which the true state vector and noise statistics are exactly known.

Sedlak, J.

On the sensitivity of numerical weather prediction to remotely sensed marine surface wind data - A simulation study

The reported investigation has the objective to assess the potential impact on numerical weather prediction (NWP) of remotely sensed surface wind data. Other investigations conducted with similar objectives have not been satisfactory in connection with a use of procedures providing an unrealistic distribution of initial errors. In the current study, care has been taken to duplicate the actual distribution of information in the conventional observing system, thus shifting the emphasis from accuracy of the data to the data coverage. It is pointed out that this is an important consideration in assessing satellite observing systems since experience with sounder data has shown that improvements in forecasts due to satellite-derived information is due less to a general error reduction than to the ability to fill data-sparse regions. The reported study concentrates on the evaluation of the observing system simulation experimental design and on the assessment of the potential of remotely sensed marine surface wind data.

Cane, M. A.

NLTE model stellar atmospheres with line blanketing near the series limits

In this paper we study the influence of line-merging regions at the intermediate long-wavelength side of a continuum threshold on the computed model atmosphere structure and predicted spectrum. In order to model these regions sufficiently accurately, we have developed two concepts. First, we have extended the occupation probability formalism of Hummer and Mihalas to non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) plasmas. Second, in order to treat the very complicated opacity in the line merging region, we have generalized the concept of opacity distribution functions to treat non-LTE situations. All Rydberg states are consistently included within this framework, so that no arbitrary cutoff of high (LTE) levels is made. We have calculated several pure hydrogen models atmospheres for two effective temperatures, T(sub eff) = 20000 and 35000 K, and discussed the differences between models calculated with various treatments of the line merging. In particular, we have shown that the error in the predicted profiles of Balmer lines resulting from the neglect of line merging is typically of the order of 3-4%, while the errors in the far-UV portion of the Balmer continuum reaches 15-35%. The errors generally decrease with increasing effective temperature. At the same time, the internal accuracy of the models is shown to be about or below 0.5% for all predicted spectral features. We conclude that for interpreting current high-accuracy spectrophotometric observations models including the line merging are necessary, and that the formalism developed in this paper is capable of providing a sufficiently accurate and robust modeling technique.

Hubeny, I.

Theory and numerics of subspace approximation of eigenvalue problems

Large-scale eigenvalue problems arise in various fields of science and engineering and demand computationally efficient solutions. In this study, we investigate the subspace approximation for parametric linear eigenvalue problems, aiming to mitigate the computational burden associated with high-fidelity systems. Furthermore, we provide general error estimates under non-simple eigenvalue conditions, establishing some theoretical foundations for understanding the convergence behavior of subspace approximations. Numerical examples, including problems with one-dimensional to three-dimensional spatial domain and one-dimensional to two-dimensional parameter domain, are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of reduced basis method in handling parametric variations in boundary conditions and coefficient fields to achieve significant computational savings while maintaining high accuracy, making them promising tools for practical applications in large-scale eigenvalue computations.

Eigenvalue problems

Modeling and Experimental Validation of a Direct-Contact Counter-Flow Fluidized Bed Heat Exchanger for Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Applications

Particle-based thermal energy storage (TES) systems are an emerging energy storage technology. The technological advances have reduced costs, making TES more competitive and reliable in the marketplace but an efficient and reliable operation is heavily dependent on coherent heat transfer between air to particles or vice versa. The particle-based TES technologies provide an intermediate system that can store energy for short (0-10 h), long (10-200 h) and seasonal (> 200 h) timescales. The TES systems store energy by converting electricity to thermal energy; electricity can be directly sourced intermittent generation technologies and/or the grid, helping manage peak loads and other mismatches in supply and demand. The overall efficiency of the TES system depends on the performance of system components (particle storage silos and particle transfer mechanism etc.). The particle heat exchanger is one of the key system components that affects the system efficiency. The pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger (PFB HX) performance is challenging to predict due to the chaotic behavior of particle and fluid interaction. This research presents a computational study of a novel direct-contact, counter-flow and air-to-particles PFB HX, that contributes in advancing the particle-based long-duration TES technologies. For the current analysis an unsteady Eulerian-Eulerian CFD model was developed and validated against experiments performed at the National Laboratory of the Rockies for two particle sizes (600 ..mu..m and 825 ..mu..m ). Following validation, parametric simulations were conducted to evaluate the effects of interphase drag models (Syamlal-O'Brien and Gidaspow), particle size, bed height and the influence of a frictional-viscosity term on hydrodynamics and heat transfer between the air & particles. The key findings from the analysis are: (1) for the studied operating window Syamlal-O'Brien provides superior agreement with measured gas temperatures (errors generally < 10%) while Gidaspow shows large deviations for the coarse particle case; (2) model predictions are most sensitive in the lower 0.2 m above the air distributor where bubble initiation and local mixing dominate interphase heat transfer; (3) representation of the distributor (number of inlet ports) materially affects predicted local mixing and temperature stratification; and (4) the Eulerian-Eulerian framework reproduces bulk thermal trends but shows regime dependent limitations for coarse particles, motivating mesoscale informed closures for scale-up analysis for future studies. These results provide validated guidance for drag selection and distributor design in particle-based thermal energy storage applications. Collectively, the validated model and parametric results quantify key drivers of PHB-HX performance and provide practical guidance for design and optimization. The results provide confidence in the model predictability and provide a step forward to improve on heat exchange performance. The demonstrated performance and modeling approach support the deployment and further development of this novel PHB-HX concept for robust, particle-based long-duration thermal energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

A tutorial review of machine learning-based model predictive control methods

Abstract This tutorial review provides a comprehensive overview of machine learning (ML)-based model predictive control (MPC) methods, covering both theoretical and practical aspects. It provides a theoretical analysis of closed-loop stability based on the generalization error of ML models and addresses practical challenges such as data scarcity, data quality, the curse of dimensionality, model uncertainty, computational efficiency, and safety from both modeling and control perspectives. The application of these methods is demonstrated using a nonlinear chemical process example, with open-source code available on GitHub. The paper concludes with a discussion on future research directions in ML-based MPC.

Wu, Zhe [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular E

Deep Neural Networks are Adaptive to Function Regularity and Data Distribution in Approximation and Estimation

Deep learning has exhibited remarkable results across diverse areas. To understand its success, substantial research has been directed towards its theoretical foundations. Nev- ertheless, the majority of these studies examine how well deep neural networks can model functions with uniform regularities. In this paper, we explore a different angle: how deep neural networks can adapt to varying degrees of smoothness in functions and nonuni- form data distributions across different locations and scales. More precisely, we focus on a broad class of functions defined by nonlinear tree-based approximation methods. This class encompasses a range of function types, such as functions with uniform regularities and discontinuous functions. We develop nonparametric approximation and estimation theories for this class using deep ReLU networks. Our results show that deep neural networks are adaptive to the nonuniform smoothness of functions and nonuniform data distributions at different locations and scales. We apply our results to several function classes, and derive the corresponding approximation and generalization errors. The validity of our results is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

A direct approach to the design of linear multivariable systems

Design of multivariable systems is considered and design procedures are formulated in the light of the most recent work on model matching. The word model matching is used exclusively to mean matching the input-output behavior of two systems. The term is used in the frequency domain to indicate the comparison of two transfer matrices containing transfer functions as elements. Design methods where non-interaction is not used as a criteria were studied. Two design methods are considered. The first method of design is based solely upon the specification of generalized error coefficients for each individual transfer function of the overall system transfer matrix. The second design method is called the pole fixing method because all the system poles are fixed at preassigned positions. The zeros of terms either above or below the diagonal are partially fixed via steady state error coefficients. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed and an example is worked to demonstrate their uses. The special cases of triangular decoupling and minimum constraints are discussed.

Agrawal, B. L.

Nonuniform sampling techniques for antenna applications

A two-dimensional sampling technique, which can employ irregularly spaced samples (amplitude and phase) in order to generate the complete far-field patterns is presented. The technique implements a matrix inversion algorithm, which depends only on the nonuniform sampled data point locations and with no dependence on the actual field values at these points. A powerful simulation algorithm is presented to allow a real-life simulation of many reflector/feed configurations and to determine the usefulness of the nonuniform sampling technique for the copolar and cross-polar patterns. Additionally, an overlapped window concept and a generalized error simulation model are discussed to identify the stability of the technique for recovering the field data among the nonuniform sampled data. Numerical results are tailored for the pattern reconstruction of a 20-m offset reflector antenna operating at L-band. This reflector is planned to be used in a proposed measurement concept of large antenna aboard the Space Shuttle, whereby it would be almost impractical to accurately control the movement of the Shuttle with respect to the RF source in prescribed directions in order to generate uniform sampled points. Also, application of the nonuniform sampling technique to patterns obtained using near-field measured data is demonstrated. Finally, results of an actual far-field measurement are presented for the construction of patterns of a reflector antenna from a set of nonuniformly distributed measured amplitude and phase data.

Rahmat-Samii, Yahya

Cloud optical parameters as derived from the multispectral cloud radiometer

Here, researchers analyze the data taken in the marine stratocumulus intensive field observation component of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE), conducted off the California coast in July, 1987 using the Multispectral Cloud Radiometer (MCR). Researchers installed an efficient retrieval scheme for deriving the cloud optical thickness and droplet mode radius, and have described the behavior of the retrieval error. Generally the scheme can retrieve the optical thickness and mode radius adequately unless they are too small; the use of the forward scattering region is more sound than the use of the backscattering portion. Applying the method to real data, researchers derived the two-dimensional distribution of optical thickness and mode radius for a portion of one of the FIRE marine stratocumulus missions. In this case study, the droplet size showed a more uniform distribution than optical thickness with some correlation between large droplet size and small optical thickness. Although researchers can find microphysical reasons for these tendencies, they suspect that the remotely sensed droplet size may be overestimated. As a future problem, they will compare results with in situ data of the droplet size distribution. Also it will be very important to check several reasons why the droplet radius might be overestimated, e.g., soot contamination, effect of escaping photons from the lateral sides of broken clouds, and so on.

Nakajima, Eruyuki

Land-mobile-satellite fade measurements in Australia

Attenuation measurements were implemented at L-band (1.5 GHz) in southeastern Australia during an 11-day period in October 1988 as part of a continuing examination of the propagation effects due to roadside trees and terrain for mobile-satellite service. Beacon transmissions from the geostationary ETS-V and IPORS satellites were observed. The Australian campaign expanded to another continent our Mobile Satellite Service data base of measurements executed in the eastern and southwestern United States regions. An empirical fade distribution model based on U.S. data predicted the Australian results with errors generally less than 1 dB in the 1-20 percent probability region. Directive antennas are shown to suffer deeper fades under severe shadowing conditions (3 dB excess at 4 percent), the equal-probability isolation between co- and cross-polarized transmissions deteriorated to 10 dB at the 5 dB fade level, and antenna diversity reception may reduce unavailability of the system by a factor of 2-8.

Vogel, Wolfhard J.

Atmospheric moisture fields derived by satellite observations over the tropical Pacific Ocean

Values of precipitable water are retrieved over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean from TOVS infrared and microwave channel brightness temperature and OLR observations by means of stepwise linear regression. The most useful temperature and moisture sensing channels are pre-selected from sensitivity tests of a radiative transfer model. Numerous models are developed and tested against collocated radiosonde observations and Nimbus-7 SMMR precipitable water estimates. For RAOB comparisons, the best estimator used 15 TOVS predictors and captured 71.1 deg percent of the variance (+0.62 g/sq cm standard error) for column precipitable water; for precipitable water of 700-500 mb bulk layer, these values were 71.7 percent and +/- 0.17 g/sq cm. Little skill of estimated precipitable water was obtained for moisture above 500 mb. Regressions were less skillful against SMMR, unless collocation parameters were tightly controlled; SMMR was less acceptable than RAOB's because of observational drift and errors. Generally, the most skillful predictors were boundary layer brightness temperatures of TOVS channels and satellite estimated stability indices. 'Moisture channels' were hardly useful except for estimating middle and upper tropospheric moisture. Additional regression models were constructed testing the sensitivity to different observational and meteorological characteristics. Models which used some in situ observations surface observations or stabilities calculated from RAOB, were the most successful. The best of these explained 87.5 percent of the variance but the regression selected almost no TOVS channels, relying instead on conventional RAOB and surface observations. A set of four regression models were developed, stratifying atmospheric characteristics on the basis of collocated OLR values. These models improved the variance explained by 5.0 percent; the model associated with the highest OLR values (275 W/sq m less than or equal to OLR; that is, no cloud) showed only marginal skill. Precipitable water fields were generated from the best TOVS-only model for seven days in January 1983 and compared with SMMR-estimated fields. OLR fields and ECMWF precipitable water analysis. The TOVS regression model compared favorably to the SMMR analysis in amplitudes and features. It revealed more evolving synoptic signal than the ECMWF analysis. In synoptically active regions, it differed with respect to the OLR analysis, primarily because of actual differences in the vertical distribution of water vapor.

Chung, Hyosang

Advanced Water Vapor Lidar Detection System

In the present water vapor lidar system, the detected signal is sent over long cables to a waveform digitizer in a CAMAC crate. This has the disadvantage of transmitting analog signals for a relatively long distance, which is subjected to pickup noise, leading to a decrease in the signal to noise ratio. Generally, errors in the measurement of water vapor with the DIAL method arise from both random and systematic sources. Systematic errors in DIAL measurements are caused by both atmospheric and instrumentation effects. The selection of the on-line alexandrite laser with a narrow linewidth, suitable intensity and high spectral purity, and its operation at the center of the water vapor lines, ensures minimum influence in the DIAL measurement that are caused by the laser spectral distribution and avoid system overloads. Random errors are caused by noise in the detected signal. Variability of the photon statistics in the lidar return signal, noise resulting from detector dark current, and noise in the background signal are the main sources of random error. This type of error can be minimized by maximizing the signal to noise ratio. The increase in the signal to noise ratio can be achieved by several ways. One way is to increase the laser pulse energy, by increasing its amplitude or the pulse repetition rate. Another way, is to use a detector system with higher quantum efficiency and lower noise, on the other hand, the selection of a narrow band optical filter that rejects most of the day background light and retains high optical efficiency is an important issue. Following acquisition of the lidar data, we minimize random errors in the DIAL measurement by averaging the data, but this will result in the reduction of the vertical and horizontal resolutions. Thus, a trade off is necessary to achieve a balance between the spatial resolution and the measurement precision. Therefore, the main goal of this research effort is to increase the signal to noise ratio by a factor of 10 over the current system, using a newly evaluated, very low noise avalanche photo diode detector and constructing a 10 MHz waveform digitizer which will replace the current CAMAC system.

Elsayed-Ali, Hani

The Role of GRAIL Orbit Determination in Preprocessing of Gravity Science Measurements

The Gravity Recovery And Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission has constructed a lunar gravity field with unprecedented uniform accuracy on the farside and nearside of the Moon. GRAIL lunar gravity field determination begins with preprocessing of the gravity science measurements by applying corrections for time tag error, general relativity, measurement noise and biases. Gravity field determination requires the generation of spacecraft ephemerides of an accuracy not attainable with the pre-GRAIL lunar gravity fields. Therefore, a bootstrapping strategy was developed, iterating between science data preprocessing and lunar gravity field estimation in order to construct sufficiently accurate orbit ephemerides.This paper describes the GRAIL measurements, their dependence on the spacecraft ephemerides and the role of orbit determination in the bootstrapping strategy. Simulation results will be presented that validate the bootstrapping strategy followed by bootstrapping results for flight data, which have led to the latest GRAIL lunar gravity fields.

science preprocessing