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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

Air pollution↗

The impact of plant‐derived fire management prescriptions on fire‐responsive bird species

Abstract In fire‐prone regions, the occurrence of some faunal species is contingent on the presence of resources that arise through post‐fire plant succession. Through planned burning, managers can alter resource availability and aim to provide the conditions required to promote biodiversity. Understanding how species occurrence changes at different spatial and temporal scales after fire is essential to achieve this goal. However, many fire prescriptions are guided primarily by the responses of fire‐sensitive plants when setting tolerable fire intervals. This approach assumes that maintaining floristic diversity will satisfy the requirements of fauna. We surveyed bird species in two semi‐arid vegetation types across an environmental gradient in south‐eastern Australia. We conducted four surveys at each of 253 sites across a 75‐year chronosequence of time since fire and used generalized additive mixed models to examine changes in the occurrence of birds in response to time since fire. Model predictions were compared to plant‐derived fire prescriptions currently guiding fire management in the region. Time since fire was a significant predictor for 18 of 28 species modeled, in at least one vegetation type, over a gradient of 1.3° of latitude. We detected considerable variation in the responses of some species, both between vegetation types and geographically within a vegetation type. Our evaluation of plant‐derived fire prescriptions suggests that the intervals considered acceptable for maintaining floristic diversity may not be sustainable for populations of birds requiring longer unburnt vegetation, with 6 of the 12 species assessed attaining a mean occurrence probability of 20.3% by the minimum tolerable fire interval, and 57.3% by the maximum tolerable fire interval, in their respective vegetation types. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of fire‐responsive bird species if fire prescriptions are applied in a manner that fails to account for the slow development of habitat resources needed by some species, and the variation detected within the responses of species. This highlights the need for species‐specific data collected at an appropriate spatial scale to inform management plans.

Makdissi, Rhys↗

Construction and Use of Resting 12-Lead High Fidelity ECG "SuperScores" in Screening for Heart Disease

We investigated the accuracy of several conventional and advanced resting ECG parameters for identifying obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) and cardiomyopathy (CM). Advanced high-fidelity 12-lead ECG tests (approx. 5-min supine) were first performed on a "training set" of 99 individuals: 33 with ischemic or dilated CM and low ejection fraction (EF less than 40%); 33 with catheterization-proven obstructive CAD but normal EF; and 33 age-/gender-matched healthy controls. Multiple conventional and advanced ECG parameters were studied for their individual and combined retrospective accuracies in detecting underlying disease, the advanced parameters falling within the following categories: 1) Signal averaged ECG, including 12-lead high frequency QRS (150-250 Hz) plus multiple filtered and unfiltered parameters from the derived Frank leads; 2) 12-lead P, QRS and T-wave morphology via singular value decomposition (SVD) plus signal averaging; 3) Multichannel (12-lead, derived Frank lead, SVD lead) beat-to-beat QT interval variability; 4) Spatial ventricular gradient (and gradient component) variability; and 5) Heart rate variability. Several multiparameter ECG SuperScores were derivable, using stepwise and then generalized additive logistic modeling, that each had 100% retrospective accuracy in detecting underlying CM or CAD. The performance of these same SuperScores was then prospectively evaluated using a test set of another 120 individuals (40 new individuals in each of the CM, CAD and control groups, respectively). All 12-lead ECG SuperScores retrospectively generated for CM continued to perform well in prospectively identifying CM (i.e., areas under the ROC curve greater than 0.95), with one such score (containing just 4 components) maintaining 100% prospective accuracy. SuperScores retrospectively generated for CAD performed somewhat less accurately, with prospective areas under the ROC curve typically in the 0.90-0.95 range. We conclude that resting 12-lead high-fidelity ECG employing and combining the results of several advanced ECG software techniques shows great promise as a rapid and inexpensive tool for screening of heart disease.

Schlegel, T. T.↗

A Comprehensive Comparison of Methods for Evaluating Dispatch of Long-Duration Energy Storage in Power Systems Models

Long-duration energy storage (LDES) could play a pivotal role in the transformation of electricity grids with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind. However, the weather-dependent nature of VRE introduces challenges for grid balancing and stability, which LDES - along with short-duration energy storage (SDES) - can help address. However, modeling LDES in production cost models (PCMs) is particularly challenging due to the need for high temporal resolution over extended optimization windows while preserving chronology, which ensures the alignment of energy storage operations with VRE generation over multi-day periods. This report compares traditional dispatch methods with advanced LDES dispatch strategies, such as the extended horizon approach, across different PCM platforms and examines tradeoffs and scalability. The comparison reveals that the traditional 1-day optimization horizon within the PCM leads to inefficient utilization of LDES. In contrast, extending the optimization horizon as much as possible significantly reduces curtailment and improves storage dispatch, especially in renewable-dense systems. There is also promise in using state-of-charge or end volume targets set by an external model, however this requires an additional modeling set and generally increases computational burden. This paper presents a comparison of these various methods in a number of power systems, showing algorithms initially in small test systems and scaling up to large, country-wide simulations. Overall, the research presents the trade-offs of various computational methods and illustrates how LDES may play an essential role in power systems of the future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Results of including geometric nonlinearities in an aeroelastic model of an F/A-18

An integrated, nonlinear simulation model suitable for aeroelastic modeling of fixed-wing aircraft has been developed. While the author realizes that the subject of modeling rotating, elastic structures is not closed, it is believed that the equations of motion developed and applied herein are correct to second order and are suitable for use with typical aircraft structures. The equations are not suitable for large elastic deformation. In addition, the modeling framework generalizes both the methods and terminology of non-linear rigid-body airplane simulation and traditional linear aeroelastic modeling. Concerning the importance of angular/elastic inertial coupling in the dynamic analysis of fixed-wing aircraft, the following may be said. The rigorous inclusion of said coupling is not without peril and must be approached with care. In keeping with the same engineering judgment that guided the development of the traditional aeroelastic equations, the effect of non-linear inertial effects for most airplane applications is expected to be small. A parameter does not tell the whole story, however, and modes flagged by the parameter as significant also need to be checked to see if the coupling is not a one-way path, i.e., the inertially affected modes can influence other modes.

Buttrill, Carey S.↗

Delamination Modeling of Composites for Improved Crash Analysis

Finite element crash modeling of composite structures is limited by the inability of current commercial crash codes to accurately model delamination growth. Efforts are made to implement and assess delamination modeling techniques using a current finite element crash code, MSC/DYTRAN. Three methods are evaluated, including a straightforward method based on monitoring forces in elements or constraints representing an interface; a cohesive fracture model proposed in the literature; and the virtual crack closure technique commonly used in fracture mechanics. Results are compared with dynamic double cantilever beam test data from the literature. Examples show that it is possible to accurately model delamination propagation in this case. However, the computational demands required for accurate solution are great and reliable property data may not be available to support general crash modeling efforts. Additional examples are modeled including an impact-loaded beam, damage initiation in laminated crushing specimens, and a scaled aircraft subfloor structures in which composite sandwich structures are used as energy-absorbing elements. These examples illustrate some of the difficulties in modeling delamination as part of a finite element crash analysis.

Fleming, David C.↗

Delamination Modeling of Composites for Improved Crash Analysis

Finite element crash modeling of composite structures is limited by the inability of current commercial crash codes to accurately model delamination growth. Efforts are made to implement and assess delamination modeling techniques using a current finite element crash code, MSC/DYTRAN. Three methods are evaluated, including a straightforward method based on monitoring forces in elements or constraints representing an interface; a cohesive fracture model proposed in the literature; and the virtual crack closure technique commonly used in fracture mechanics. Results are compared with dynamic double cantilever beam test data from the literature. Examples show that it is possible to accurately model delamination propagation in this case. However, the computational demands required for accurate solution are great and reliable property data may not be available to support general crash modeling efforts. Additional examples are modeled including an impact-loaded beam, damage initiation in laminated crushing specimens, and a scaled aircraft subfloor structures in which composite sandwich structures are used as energy-absorbing elements. These examples illustrate some of the difficulties in modeling delamination as part of a finite element crash analysis.

Fleming, David C.↗

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Microphysics Validation using TRMM Data

A simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) has been performed using multiple grid nesting to 2 km grid spacing. The simulation is initialized with large-scale analysis fields from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts and with a bogus vortex inserted via four-dimensional variational data assimilation. The simulation reproduces well the storm intensity, the wavenumber 1 asymmetry of the precipitation field, the occurrence of deep convective towers within the eyewall, and the presence of broad stratiform precipitation regions. Radar and microwave observations from TRMM are used to validate the simulation. Result show excessive graupel production and, to some extent, excessive precipitation production in general by the model. Additional simulations are conducted (and validated by TRMM data) to test parameters and assumptions within the microphysics parameterizations including particle size distributions, particle densities, and assumptions that impact the partitioning of precipitation mass between graupel and snow.

Starr, David OC.↗

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Execute Cycled WRF/GSI Forecasts

Automating the coupling of data assimilation (DA) and modeling systems is a unique challenge in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) research community. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released well-documented tools such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system that can be easily downloaded, installed, and run by researchers on their local systems. However, developing a coupled system in which the various preprocessing, DA, model, and postprocessing capabilities are all integrated can be labor-intensive if one has little experience with any of these individual systems. Additionally, operational modeling entities generally have specific coupling methodologies that can take time to understand and develop code to implement properly. To better enable collaborating researchers to perform modeling and DA experiments with GSI, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a set of Perl scripts that couple GSI and WRF in a cycling methodology consistent with the use of real-time, regional observation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). Because Perl is open source, the code can be easily downloaded and executed regardless of the user's native shell environment. This paper will provide a description of this open-source code and descriptions of a number of the use cases that have been performed by SPoRT collaborators using the scripts on different computing systems.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Modelling, calibration, and error analysis of seven-hole pressure probes

This report describes the calibration of a nonnulling, conical, seven-hole pressure probe over a large range of flow onset angles. The calibration procedure is based on the use of differential pressures to determine the three components of velocity. The method allows determination of the flow angle and velocity magnitude to within an average error of 1.0 deg and 1.0 percent, respectively. Greater accuracy can be achieved by using high-quality pressure transducers. Also included is an examination of the factors which limit the use of the probe, a description of the measurement chain, an error analysis, and a typical experimental result. In addition, a new general analytical model of pressure probe behavior is described, and the validity of the model is demonstrated by comparing it with experimentally measured calibration data for a three-hole yaw meter and a seven-hole probe.

Zillac, G. G.↗

An analysis of the two-dimensional acoustic field in a nonuniform duct carrying compressible flow

An analytical/numerical linear acoustic solution in a nonuniform two-dimensional duct carrying a compressible mean flow is developed. A quasi-one dimensional mean flow model is employed together with a consistent expression for the cross-flow velocity. The acoustic solution is obtained using the Wave Envelope Method. Numerical results are compared with those of an existing Wave Envelope solution which includes a more general mean flow model. In addition, the singular behavior of the solutions derived in the current work for nearly sonic flow conditions is examined explicitly.

Uenishi, K.↗

Calibration of seven-hole pressure probes for use in fluid flows with large angularity

Described here is the calibration of a non-nulling, conical, seven-hole pressure probe over a large range of flow onset angles. The calibration procedure is based on the use of differential pressures to determine the three components of velocity. The method allows determination of the flow angle to within 0.5 deg and velocity magnitude to approximately 1.0 percent. Also included is an examination of the factors which limit the use of the probe, a description of the measurement chain, an error analysis, and a typical experimental result. In addition, a new general analytical model of pressure probe behavior is described and the validity of the model is demonstrated by comparing it with experimentally measured calibration data for a three-hole yaw meter and a seven-hole probe.

Zilliac, Gregory G.↗

Many-body expansion based machine learning models for octahedral transition metal complexes

Abstract Graph-based machine learning (ML) models for material properties show great potential to accelerate virtual high-throughput screening of large chemical spaces. However, in their simplest forms, graph-based models do not include any 3D information and are unable to distinguish stereoisomers such as those arising from different orderings of ligands around a metal center in coordination complexes. In this work we present a modification to revised autocorrelation descriptors, a molecular graph featurization method, for predicting spin state dependent properties of octahedral transition metal complexes (TMCs). Inspired by analytical semi-empirical models for TMCs, the new modeling strategy is based on the many-body expansion (MBE) and allows one to tune the captured stereoisomer information by changing the truncation order of the MBE. We present the necessary modifications to include this approach in two commonly used ML methods, kernel ridge regression and feed-forward neural networks. On a test set composed of all possible isomers of binary TMCs, the best MBE models achieve mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 2.75 kcal mol −1 on spin-splitting energies and 0.26 eV on frontier orbital energy gaps, a 30%–40% reduction in error compared to models based on our previous approach. We also observe improved generalization to previously unseen ligands where the best-performing models exhibit MAEs of 4.00 kcal mol −1 (i.e. a 0.73 kcal mol −1 reduction) on the spin-splitting energies and 0.53 eV (i.e. a 0.10 eV reduction) on the frontier orbital energy gaps. Because the new approach incorporates insights from electronic structure theory, such as ligand additivity relationships, these models exhibit systematic generalization from homoleptic to heteroleptic complexes, allowing for efficient screening of TMC search spaces.

Meyer, Ralf (ORCID:0000000322360261)↗

Changes of solar luminosity and radius following secular perturbations in the convective envelope

The effect on solar models of several types of slow, spherically symmetric perturbations, acting at various depths within the convective envelope, are calculated. Results are presented on perturbations of the efficiency of convective energy transport (alpha perturbations) and on changes in the nongas component of pressure (beta perturbations). The effects of magnetic fields concentrated near the interface between the radiative core and the convective envelope are explored. It is found that the response and relaxation diagnostics depend both on the type of perturbation and on the depth at which the perturbation is applied. In addition to the general depth dependence, model behavior is sensitive to the presence of major ionization zones near the perturbed layer. The time dependence of the solar model behavior is characterized by an initial hydrostatic reaction followed by a thermal readjustment on a time scale of about 100 years, and finally relaxation to a new thermal equilibrium on a Kelvin time scale.

Endal, A. S.↗

WETO Software Stack Best Practices

Wind energy researchers typically share one key characteristic: a passion for increasing wind energy in the global energy mix. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supports this mission in a number of ways including allocating funding directly to various aspects of wind energy research through the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) via the Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO). While the traditional output of research is academic publication, software development efforts are increasingly a major focus. Software tools in the research environment allow researchers to describe an idea and quickly increase the scope and scale as they study it further. As a product of research, these tools represent a direct pipeline from researcher to industry practitioners since they are the implementation of ideas described in academic publications. Given this vital role in wind energy research and commercial development, the broad research software portfolio supported by WETO must maintain a minimum level of quality to support the wind energy field in the growing transition to renewable energy. This report outlines a series o f best practices to be adopted by all WETO-supported software projects, as well as expectations that the communities interacting with these projects should have of the developers and tools themselves. Wind energy research software has a unique standing in the field of scientific software. The stakeholders are varied with a subset being: (1) DOE EERE leadership, (2) DOE WETO leadership and program managers, (3) National lab leadership, (4) Associated project principle investigators, (5) Research software engineers, (6) Wind energy researchers in academia (including graduate students, post docs, and national lab staff), (7) Industry researchers and practitioners, (8) Commercial software developers, and (9) The general public interested in wind energy. These software are typically the end-user of other generic software libraries, so the funding cycles are often tied to applied research rather than the development of the software itself. Since the developers are also wind energy researchers, these tools are typically designed in a way that closely resembles the application in which they're used. Additionally, the expertise and incentives for the developers have a high variability, and often neither are aligned with software engineering or computer science. Given the unique environment in which wind energy research software is produced and consumed, it is critical for model owners to understand the context of their software. A framework for developing this understanding is to answer the following questions of a given software project: What is it's purpose? What is its role in the field of wind energy? What is the profile of the expected users? For how long will it be relevant? What is the expected impact? These questions allow model owners to identify the appropriate methods for the design, development, and long term maintenance of their software. Additionally, the answer provide context for future planners to understand why particular decisions were made and discern the consequences of changing course. The information is aggregated from experience within WETO-supported software development groups as well as external organizations and efforts to define the craft of research software engineering. These best practices aim to make the collaborative development process efficient and effective while improving the model understanding across stakeholders. Additionally, the general adoption of a common framework for software quality ensures that the end users of WETO software can trust these tools and accurately understand the risks to workflow integration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Acoustic-based monitoring and machine learning of component status for microreactor applications

This report provides a description and assessment of recent efforts to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models in order to enhance structural health monitoring capabilities for nuclear microreactors. With resilient embedded sensors in development by others supported by programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy, the work described herein builds upon ongoing efforts to improve non-destructive testing technology that relates measured acoustic signatures to component stresses and/or structural defects, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning architectures. The experimental procedure remained similar to that developed for the previous year’s demonstration of damage detection by the authors, with the same damaged sample tested under similar applied stress conditions. Notably, a new mounting fixture was designed and implemented to improve measurement consistency and a more sophisticated laser Doppler vibrometer was employed to make high-fidelity vibration measurements. Two nominally identical sets of training data were collected for each experimental setup to better understand the repeatability of the experiment and to better test the generality of trained neural network models. Additionally, we obtained new high-quality 3D mode shapes of the damaged test article at various stress and excitation levels, providing greater insights into the physical response of the sample during testing. Previously, we demonstrated that a machine learning model based on a convolutional neural network can predict structural details of an artificially introduced interface (intact, rough cut, smooth cut), and the applied torque level. In this study, we have transitioned to graph-based neural network architectures to better develop and test a flexible framework that is more suitable to being transferred away from controlled benchtop experiments and into more applied settings where less-structured data inputs may be expected. In general, performance testing of a graph neural network on frequency-domain representations of the data indicates strong and consistent identification of test conditions for datasets recorded on damaged components. With goals of predicting damage location and other changing experimental conditions using limited datasets, predictive models using a graph neural network architecture correctly predicted the applied torque level with an accuracy of 85% using only a single measurement point and predicted within one torque level in 95% of test windows. Predictions of damage location had limited success due to the symmetry and minimal number of the damage scenarios presented during model training. Results were ambiguous as to whether the model could detect the location of the artificial damage, or if it was instead learning the location of a given measurement point on the part and subsequently detecting which points were closest to the location of the damage. This finding will be factored into upcoming planned work on damaged graphite components, where new experimental tests with a larger number and variety of damage scenarios are expected to provide improved validation of recent developments in monitoring methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Vertical tilts of tropospheric waves - Observations and theory

Two methods are used to investigate the vertical tilts of planetary waves as functions of zonal wavenumber and frequency. The vertical tilts are computed by cross-spectral analysis of the geopotential heights at different pressures. In the midlatitude troposphere, the eastward-moving waves had a westward tilt with height, as expected, but the westward-moving waves with frequencies higher than 0.2/d showed statistically significant eastward vertical tilts. For a free Rossby wave, this implies that the Eliassen-Palm flux is downward along with its energy propagation. A downward energy propagation suggests an upper-level source of these waves. It is proposed that the eastward-tilting waves were forced by the nonlinear interaction of stationary waves and baroclinically unstable cyclone-scale waves. The predicted vertical tilt and phase speed were consistent with the observations. In addition, simulations of a general circulation model were analyzed. In the control run, eastward-tilting waves disappeared when the sources of stationary waves were removed. This is consistent with the present theory.

Ebisuzaki, Wesley↗