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DOE OSTI2022

Curriculum-based Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Critical Load Restoration

This paper focuses on the critical load restoration problem in distribution systems following major outages. To provide fast online response and optimal sequential decision-making support, a reinforcement learning (RL) based approach is proposed to optimize the restoration. Due to the complexities stemming from the large policy search space, renewable uncertainty, and nonlinearity in a complex grid control problem, directly applying RL algorithms to train a satisfactory policy requires extensive tuning to be successful. To address this challenge, this paper leverages the curriculum learning (CL) technique to design a training curriculum involving a simpler steppingstone problem that guides the RL agent to learn to solve the original hard problem in a progressive and more effective manner. We demonstrate that compared with direct learning, CL facilitates controller training to achieve better performance. To study realistic scenarios where renewable forecasts used for decision-making are in general imperfect, the experiments compare the trained RL controllers against two model predictive controllers (MPCs) using renewable forecasts with different error levels and observe how these controllers can hedge against the uncertainty. Results show that RL controllers are less susceptible to forecast errors than the baseline MPCs and can provide a more reliable restoration process.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 VII: cosmological constraints from the full-shape modeling of clustering measurements

We present cosmological results from the measurement of clustering of galaxy, quasar and Lyman-α forest tracers from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). We adopt the full-shape (FS) modeling of the power spectrum, including the effects of redshift-space distortions, in an analysis which has been thoroughly validated in a series of supporting papers as summarised in [1]. We combine the full-shape information with DESI's DR1 constraints from the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) of these tracers. In the flat ΛCDM cosmological model, DESI (FS+BAO), combined with a baryon density prior from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and a weak prior on the scalar spectral index, determines matter density to Ω m = 0.2962 ± 0.0095, and the amplitude of mass fluctuations to σ 8 = 0.842 ± 0.034. The addition of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data tightens these constraints to Ω m = 0.3056 ± 0.0049 and σ 8 = 0.8121 ± 0.0053, while further addition of the joint clustering and lensing analysis from the Dark Energy Survey Year-3 (DESY3) data further improves these measurements, and leads to a 0.4% determination of the Hubble constant, H 0 = (68.40 ± 0.27) km s -1 Mpc -1 . In models with a time-varying dark energy equation of state parametrised by w 0 and w a , combinations of DESI (FS+BAO) with CMB and type Ia supernovae continue to show the preference, previously found in the DESI DR1 BAO analysis, for w 0 > -1 and w a < 0 with similar levels of significance. DESI data, in combination with the CMB, improve the upper limits on the sum of the neutrino masses relative to the case when only the DR1 BAO was available, giving ∑m ν < 0.071 eV at 95% confidence. We finally constrain deviations from general relativity represented by two modified gravity parameters. DESI (FS+BAO) data alone measure the parameter that controls the clustering of massive particles, μ 0 = 0.11 +0.45 -0.54 , in agreement with the zero value predicted by general relativity. The combination of DESI with the CMB and the clustering and lensing analysis from DESY3 constrains both modified-gravity parameters, giving μ 0 = 0.04 ± 0.22 and Σ 0 = 0.044 ± 0.047, again in agreement with general relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

HHL algorithm with mapping function and enhanced sampling for model predictive control in microgrids

Here, this paper presents a refined quantum Harrow Hassidim Lloyd (HHL) algorithm for microgrid control. The first novelty of the developed method is that a mapping shift function enables the original HHL algorithm to handle general linear equations with non-singular and indefinite matrix. Second, a method of Matrix Extension for Amplifying Sampling Probabilities of Intended Solution (ME-ASPI) is proposed to design the reformulated linear algebraic equations, allowing for improved sampling efficiency of the quantum tomography in the refined HHL algorithm. Then, we applied the method to solve the model predictive control (MPC) problem in nonlinear dynamical microgrids. Specifically, with the ME-ASPI method, the refined HHL algorithm can effectively obtain the intended partial optimal control inputs for MPC. The optimization of quadratic programming problem in each time step of MPC is transformed into a linear system problem, which is addressed by the proposed quantum solver through using only partial information, with the time complexity improved from $\mathscr{O}(\mathscr{N}^{2.37286})$ classically to $\mathscr{O}(\mathscr{N}^{2} log \mathscr{N}$ x $p$ log $p)$ in quantum. Numerical examples have validated the effectiveness of the refined HHL algorithm with the proposed mapping function and the ME-ASPI method. By leveraging quantum properties, the proposed method provides a hybrid quantum–classical framework for microgrid control. This generic method can also potentially tackle many other challenges in analyzing and controlling general complex engineered systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Multiple Data Streams for Gearbox Bearing Fault Prediction Through Machine-Learning Models

Operations and maintenance (O&M) cost of wind plant accounts up to 30% of total energy cost, which can be reduced through continuous monitoring and successfully detecting incipient wind turbine failures. To accomplish this, condition monitoring and predictive maintenance systems are being implemented in wind industry to support O&M decision making. A wide range of approaches for condition monitoring and fault prediction have been developed. These approaches generally use historical data of wind turbines collected by Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system to identify patterns that lead to failure. These SCADA data show the overall condition of a wind turbine and can be leveraged to detect when the turbine's performance is degrading and to identify if a fault is developing. However, it becomes challenging to predict the failure of a specific wind turbine gearbox bearing, because the SCADA data are often not directly linked to the component. To bridge the gap, we have investigated features calculated from SCADA data using physics-based models and the gearbox design over the years. The damaged metric we used in the physics domain is frictional energy. Combining these physics domain variables with SCADA data as inputs to various machine learning models for gearbox bearing fault prediction, we have demonstrated the benefits of leveraging both physics and data domain models. It was an attempt to improve frictional-energy-based damage metric by adding data domain inputs, as we had learned that the frictional-energy-based damage metric alone is not sufficient to single out failed bearings from healthy. As condition monitoring data (either vibration or oil debris data) has become available at more and more wind plants, we would like to evaluate whether by adding the condition monitoring data can help further improve the performance of frictional-energy-based damage metric for gearbox bearing fault prediction. Both cases by modeling through various machine learning algorithms are discussed in this study along with some observations.

fault prediction↗

DOE OSTI2026

Regional surrogates for predictive control of digital twins

Digital twins of complex systems must involve a model that is fast, generalizable, and usable for real-time control. For example, high-fidelity nonlinear multiphysics simulations can capture laser-material interactions, but are too slow for optimization or model predictive control (MPC). Reduced-order models, used to accelerate such computation, frequently fail to generalize to unseen inputs or control states. We show theoretically that this failure is intrinsic, i.e., that a learned model is non-unique outside the sampled subspace when its low-rank structure arises from limited excitation and clustered eigenvalues, rather than from a user-imposed truncation alone. Motivated by this result, we propose a control-ready regional surrogate-construction framework for both autonomous and nonautonomous dynamics; it employs Koopman lifting to represent nonlinearities, while preserving spatial locality. We illustrate our approach by constructing a control-ready surrogate for the digital twin of a thermal component of additive-manufacturing process. Our surrogate, localized in space through a von Neumann stencil, is learned from noisy high-fidelity simulations that emulate thermal-camera images collected during the manufacturing. It is linear in thermo-physically augmented states so that MPC reduces to a convex quadratic program. The surrogate requires no online correction, generalizes to unseen scan paths and power profiles of the laser, and is more than three orders of magnitude faster than a finite-difference solver. Furthermore, when the MPC sequence computed on the digital twin is applied to this solver, closed-loop temperature regulation is recovered, showing that the surrogate preserves control-relevant input-output behavior.

Data-driven model↗

DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous control for Heat-Pipe microreactor using Data-Driven model predictive control

To enable a self-regulating capability for heat pipe (HP) microreactors, an anticipatory control strategy achieved via model predictive control (MPC) could proactively respond to potential disturbances and deviations in operating setpoints. This paper demonstrates data-driven methods for predicting the distribution and transient of temperatures and heat fluxes at selected components and regions in a 37-HP system, based on which the optimal control actions in response to changes in user-defined setpoints can be found. We present the development and validation of linear state-space model, feedfoward, and recurrent neural networks. Here, we compare the performance of MPCs with different modeling approaches in terms of following setpoints for temperatures and averaged output heat fluxes. The accuracies of the three data-driven models are similar, but the control actions initiated by neural-network-based MPC can better adapt to drastic changes in setpoints yet generate the smallest errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding plasma turbulence through exact coherent structures

Plasma turbulence is a key challenge in understanding transport phenomena in magnetically confined plasmas. This work presents a generalized framework to analyze plasma turbulence that utilizes periodic orbit theory. In periodic orbit theory, doubly periodic solutions (coherent structures) of the governing equation(s) serve as building blocks of the considered turbulent dynamics. To illustrate the concept and method, the particularly simple Kuramoto–Sivashinsky (referred to here as LMRT for the original authors: LaQuey, Mahajan, Rutherford, and Tang) trapped-ion mode toy model is used. By applying numerical optimization techniques to the LMRT equation, we extract coherent spacetime patterns that represent the library of allowable fundamental structures of the equation. These structures provide a framework to systematically describe turbulence as a composition of recurrent solutions, revealing an underlying order within chaotic plasma motion. Although illustrated here using the simplified LMRT model for clarity, this framework provides a general strategy that can be extended to more complex and realistic models of plasma turbulence, including gyrokinetic systems. This offers a new method for predicting and potentially controlling transport processes in fusion plasmas by providing a bridge between nonlinear dynamical systems theory and plasma physics in the form of a generalized framework with which to analyze and understand spatially extended nonlinear partial differential equations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accurate Machine Learning for Predicting the Viscosities of Deep Eutectic Solvents

Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) are emerging as environmentally friendly designer solvents for mass transport and heat transfer processes in industrial applications; however, the lack of accurate tools to predict and thus control their viscosities under both a range of environmental factors and formulations hinders their general application. While DESs may serve as designer solvents, with nearly unlimited combinations, this unfortunately makes it experimentally infeasible to comprehensively measure the viscosities of all DESs of potential industrial interest. To assist in the design of DESs, we have developed several new machine learning (ML) models that accurately and rapidly predict the viscosities of a diverse group of DESs at different temperatures and molar ratios using, to date, one of the most comprehensive data sets containing the properties of over 670 DESs over a wide range of temperatures (278.15–385.25 K). Three ML models, including support vector regression (SVR), feed forward neural networks (FFNNs), and categorical boosting (CatBoost), were developed to predict DES viscosity as a function of temperature and molar ratio and contrasted with multilinear and two-factor polynomial regression baselines. Further, quantum chemistry-based, COSMO-RS-derived sigma profile (σ-profile) features were used as inputs for the ML models. The CatBoost model is excellent at externally predicting DES viscosity, as indicated by high R 2 (0.99) and low root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and average absolute relative deviations (AARD) (5.22%) values for the testing data sets, and 98% of the data points lie within the 15% of AARD deviations. Furthermore, SHapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the ML results and rationalize the viscosity predictions. The result is an ML approach that accurately predicts viscosity and will aid in accelerating the design of appropriate DESs for industrial applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Temperature Management of Heat Pipe Microreactor

A data-driven model predictive control (MPC) was developed to enable the self-regulating capability of heat pipe (HP) nuclear microreactors. The MPC can proactively respond to potential disturbances of HP microreactors using three approaches for system identifications: linear state-space model, feedforward neural network, and recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory units. We present numerical results of data-driven MPCs to control the temperatures of selected HPs in a 37-HP test article. Our results show qualitatively that all data-driven MPCs produced similar control actions, while quantitatively, with artificial neural nets (especially feedforward neural nets), MPC can better follow drastic changes in setpoints with small errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

To establish a technical basis for self-regulating microreactors, a model predictive control (MPC) system is investigated to proactively respond to anomalies and disturbances in anticipation of potential deviations from operating setpoints. Due to the difficulty of developing a physics-based surrogate model that can accurately match plant data in various operating conditions, machine learning algorithms are used in MPC, which allow for learning from both simulation and operation data, thus efficiently describing the targeted transient with arbitrary accuracy. However, one of the biggest concerns in applying ML algorithms like artificial neural networks (ANNs) is that the predictive capabilities of ANN are limited by training data. If there are gaps between the training and target domain, the accuracy of an ANN can degrade significantly when it is used to predict unseen data. To improve the predictive capability of ANN and enable a confident use of data-driven MPCs outside the training data, this study proposes an adaptive data-driven MPC framework. The system will monitor the discrepancy between plant responses and surrogate predictions, fine-tune the ANN-based surrogate when a large discrepancy is detected, and continue MPC operation with updated surrogates. The framework is demonstrated on a point kinetic model for microreactors. The hyperparameters of the update strategy, including layers to update, error thresholds, learning rate discount, and number of data points used for fine-tuning, are optimized so the simulated microreactor is able to follow changes in setpoint with the smallest of deviations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptable Data Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fuel performance evaluation of two high burnup PWR core designs during normal operation, control rod withdrawal, and control rod ejection scenarios

There is interest among utilities to extend the current, 18-month operating cycle to 24 months. Economically, this extension would require greater than 5 % enrichment and peak rod average discharge burnup levels above 62 GWd/MTU. A notable challenge of increasing enrichment is the resulting additional excess reactivity encountered during the early stages of fuel life. To accommodate, burnable absorbers beyond soluble boron are introduced into the fuel system. In high burnup fuels, the possibilities of cladding lift-off and fuel melting increase due, in part, to increased rod internal pressures and limited fuel thermal conductivity, respectively. This work collaboratively employs PARCS, RELAP5-3D, and BISON to compare the fuel performance of two high burnup fuel candidates with higher than 5 % enrichment. Here, the fuel performance parameters were compared to current NRC guidance. The results demonstrate an annular fuel design with homogenously blended gadolinium as a burnable absorber operates with greater safety margins during normal operation, allowing for additional operational flexibility. During normal operation, the core design utilizing Integral Fuel Burnable Absorber pins contained fuel pins which reached plenum pressures above 15.5 MPa by the end of the first fuel cycle and fuel pins experienced cladding hoop strains above 1 %. In the Gd core design, only two observed pins experienced plenum pressures above 15.5 MPa and no pins exceeded 1 % cladding hoop strain. During the control rod withdrawal scenario, plenum pressures for pins in both designs marginally exceeded system pressure, however neither experienced excessive hoop strain. The Gd core design experienced a maximum fuel temperature of 2418 K, which is significantly higher than the Integral Fuel Burnable Absorber design at 2157 K, but still within regulatory guidance. We predicted that the fuel in both could return to service after the CRW event. We also predicted that cladding would not fail during the Control Rod Ejection in either core design. Generally, the Integral Fuel Burnable Absorber core design performed with greater safety margin with regards to temperature during normal operation and the transient events. However, the Gd core design performed with greater safety margin regarding plenum pressure and hoop strain limits during normal operation and both transient events.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models

Abstract. Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Machine learning models can help identify dominant environmental controllers and establish their functional relationships with SOC stocks. The resulting knowledge can be integrated into ESMs to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions of SOC dynamics over space and time. In this study, we used a large number of SOC field observations (n=54 000), geospatial datasets of environmental factors (n=46), and two machine learning approaches (namely random forest, RF, and generalized additive modeling, GAM) to (1) identify dominant environmental controllers of global and biome-specific SOC stocks, (2) derive functional relationships between environmental controllers and SOC stocks, and (3) compare the identified environmental controllers and predictive relationships with those in models used in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Our results showed that the diurnal temperature, drought index, cation exchange capacity, and precipitation were important observed environmental predictors of global SOC stocks. While the RF model identified 14 environmental factors that describe climatic, vegetation, and edaphic conditions as important predictors of global SOC stocks (R2=0.61, RMSE = 0.46 kg m−2), current ESMs oversimplify the relationships between environmental factors and SOC, with precipitation, temperature, and net primary productivity explaining > 96 % of the variability in ESM-modeled SOC stocks. Further, our study revealed notable disparities among the functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks simulated by ESMs compared with observed relationships. To improve SOC representations in ESMs, it is imperative to incorporate additional environmental controls, such as the cation exchange capacity, and refine the functional relationships to align more closely with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Summary of the IAEA technical meeting on plasma disruptions and their mitigation

Here we summarize the contributions presented at the IAEA technical meeting on plasma disruptions and their mitigation, held virtually, 20–23 July 2020. The meeting brought together more than 120 experts from nuclear fusion research sites worldwide to discuss experimental, theoretical and modelling work in the field of plasma disruptions with special emphasis on developing a solid basis for possible disruption mitigation strategies in ITER and next generation fusion devices. The main topics of the meeting were: (i) disruption consequences, including electromagnetic loads, heat loads, and runaway electrons; (ii) disruption prediction and avoidance, including machine learning and physics-based approaches, and control aspects; and (iii) disruption mitigation, including shattered pellet injection, alternative techniques and general aspects of disruption mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The curled wake model: a three-dimensional and extremely fast steady-state wake solver for wind plant flows

Abstract. Wind turbine wake models typically require approximations, such as wake superposition and deflection models, to accurately describe wake physics. However, capturing the phenomena of interest, such as the curled wake and interaction of multiple wakes, in wind power plant flows comes with an increased computational cost. To address this, we propose a new hybrid method that uses analytical solutions with an approximate form of the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations to solve the time-averaged flow over a wind plant. We compare results from the solver to supervisory control and data acquisition data from the Lillgrund wind plant obtaining wake model predictions which are generally within 1 standard deviation of the mean power data. We perform simulations of flow over the Columbia River Gorge to demonstrate the capabilities of the model in complex terrain. We also apply the solver to a case with wake steering, which agreed well with large-eddy simulations. This new solver reduces the time – and therefore the related cost – it takes to simulate a steady-state wind plant flow (on the order of seconds using one core). Because the model is computationally efficient, it can also be used for different applications including wake steering for wind power plants and layout optimization.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning-driven insights into super protein complexes for outer membrane protein biogenesis in bacteria

To reach their final destinations, outer membrane proteins (OMPs) of gram-negative bacteria undertake an eventful journey beginning in the cytosol. Multiple molecular machines, chaperones, proteases, and other enzymes facilitate the translocation and assembly of OMPs. These helpers usually associate, often transiently, forming large protein assemblies. They are not well understood due to experimental challenges in capturing and characterizing protein-protein interactions (PPIs), especially transient ones. Using AF2Complex, we introduce a high-throughput, deep learning pipeline to identify PPIs within the Escherichia coli cell envelope and apply it to several proteins from an OMP biogenesis pathway. Among the top confident hits obtained from screening ~1500 envelope proteins, we find not only expected interactions but also unexpected ones with profound implications. Subsequently, we predict atomic structures for these protein complexes. These structures, typically of high confidence, explain experimental observations and lead to mechanistic hypotheses for how a chaperone assists a nascent, precursor OMP emerging from a translocon, how another chaperone prevents it from aggregating and docks to a β-barrel assembly port, and how a protease performs quality control. This work presents a general strategy for investigating biological pathways by using structural insights gained from deep learning-based predictions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Relative Importance of the MJO and ENSO to North Pacific Subseasonal Predictability

Abstract Here we explore the relative contribution of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to midlatitude subseasonal predictive skill of upper atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, using an inherently interpretable neural network applied to pre‐industrial control runs of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We find that this interpretable network generally favors the state of ENSO, rather than the MJO, to make correct predictions on a range of subseasonal lead times and predictand averaging windows. Moreover, the predictability of positive circulation anomalies over the North Pacific is comparatively lower than that of their negative counterparts, especially evident when the ENSO state is important. However, when ENSO is in a neutral state, our findings indicate that the MJO provides some predictive information, particularly for positive anomalies. We identify three distinct evolutions of these MJO states, offering fresh insights into opportune forecasting windows for MJO teleconnections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

IMG Annotation Pipeline (IMGAP) v5.1.13

The IMG Annotation Pipeline is a collection of Bash and Python scripts to control a workflow for structural and functional annotation of prokaryotic genomes, metagenomes, and metatranscriptomes. The bash scripts in general control the overall workflow and are wrappers around 3rd party executables (not included in repo) that predict features or functions. Whereas the Python scripts do post-processing of raw output in terms of filtering or format transformation and in some cases contain some logic for picking the correct predictions or resolving overlaps. The pipeline is tailored to produce results required by IMG (https://img.jgi.doe.gov/) and is executed on every dataset submitted to IMG via https://img.jgi.doe.gov/submit. These consist of internal genomes, metagenomes and metatranscriptomes sequenced and assembled at the JGI, as well as datasets submitted by external users (non-lab/JGI affiliates).

Huntemann, Marcel↗