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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2017

Vetting new models of climate responses to geoengineering: The Seventh Meeting of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project; Newry, Maine, 26 July 2017

On July 27, 2017, a group of approximately 30 scientists met in Newry, Maine to discuss the latest science and future directions in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/GeoMIP/) (GeoMIP). This international effort, which is an official part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), is the largest source of information about the robust climate model response to solar geoengineering, a collection of proposed technologies designed to quickly, temporarily offset the effects of global warming.

Kravitz, Benjamin S.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. Furthermore, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

New Frontiers in Geoengineering Research

In late summer 2019, the ninth annual workshop of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP; http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/GeoMIP) convened at Beijing Normal University (Fig. 1). This meeting was held in conjunction with a summer school in which 89 participants from five continents learned about climate modeling of solar geoengineering, also known as climate engineering or climate intervention. Solar geoengineering refers to “radiation management” methods, which involve deliberate manipulations of the radiation budget through potential technologies such as stratospheric sulfate aerosols, marine cloud brightening, and cirrus thinning, but not CO2 removal. The students at the summer school were mainly physical science majors, with many from China, but also included some social science people. The summer school was focused on impact modeling (e.g., on agriculture and the cryosphere) and consideration of extremes, rather than just looking at climate modeloutput. There were also lectures on governance and economics. This event signifies the first major international geoengineering meeting held in Asia.

Kravitz, Benjamin S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering

Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project project the climate effects that result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without further relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We extend this idea to include different amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of greenhouse gas concentrations, by training emulators from a multi-model ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4 × CO 2 and a compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing predictions against a simulated 1 % per year CO 2 increase and a similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including regional effects), and annual-mean Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, with the difference between simulation and prediction typically being smaller than natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is less well predicted, indicating a limit to the linearity assumption.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Marine cloud brightening – as effective without clouds

Marine cloud brightening through sea spray injection has been proposed as a climate engineering method for avoiding the most severe consequences of global warming. A limitation of most of the previous modelling studies on marine cloud brightening is that they have either considered individual models or only investigated the effects of a specific increase in the number of cloud droplets. Here we present results from coordinated simulations with three Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4sea-salt experiment. Injection rates of accumulation-mode sea spray aerosol particles over ocean between 30°N and 30°S are set in each model to generate a global-mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) of –2.0 W m –2 at the top of the atmosphere. We find that the injection increases the cloud droplet number concentration in lower layers, reduces the cloud-top effective droplet radius, and increases the cloud optical depth over the injection area. We also find, however, that the global-mean clear-sky ERF by the injected particles is as large as the corresponding total ERF in all three ESMs, indicating a large potential of the aerosol direct effect in regions of low cloudiness. The largest enhancement in ERF due to the presence of clouds occur as expected in the subtropical stratocumulus regions off the west coasts of the American and African continents. However, outside these regions, the ERF is in general equally large in cloudy and clear-sky conditions. Lastly, these findings suggest a more important role of the aerosol direct effect in sea spray climate engineering than previously thought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The climate effects of increasing ocean albedo: an idealized representation of solar geoengineering

Geoengineering, or climate intervention, describes methods of deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. As an idealized representation of near-surface solar geoengineering over the ocean, such as marine cloud brightening, this paper discusses experiment G1ocean-albedo of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), involving an abrupt quadrupling of the CO 2 concentration and an instantaneous increase in ocean albedo to maintain approximate net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux balance. A total of 11 Earth system models are relatively consistent in their temperature, radiative flux, and hydrological cycle responses to this experiment. Due to the imposed forcing, air over the land surface warms by a model average of 1.14 K, while air over most of the ocean cools. Some parts of the near-surface air temperature over ocean warm due to heat transport from land to ocean. These changes generally resolve within a few years, indicating that changes in ocean heat content play at most a small role in the warming over the oceans. The hydrological cycle response is a general slowing down, with high heterogeneity in the response, particularly in the tropics. While idealized, these results have important implications for marine cloud brightening, or other methods of geoengineering involving spatially heterogeneous forcing, or other general forcings with a strong land–ocean contrast. As a result, it also reinforces previous findings that keeping top-of-atmosphere net radiative flux constant is not sufficient for preventing changes in global mean temperature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Response to marine cloud brightening in a multi-model ensemble

In this paper we show results from Earth system model simulations from the marine cloud brightening experiment G4cdnc of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The nine contributing models prescribe a 50 % increase in the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of low clouds over the global oceans in an experiment dubbed G4cdnc, with the purpose of counteracting the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases under the RCP4.5 scenario. The model ensemble median effective radiative forcing (ERF) amounts to –1.9 Wm –2 , with a substantial inter-model spread of –0.6 to –2.5 Wm –2 . The large spread is partly related to the considerable differences in clouds and their representation between the models, with an underestimation of low clouds in several of the models. All models predict a statistically significant temperature decrease with a median of (for years 2020–2069) –0.96 [–0.17 to –1.21] K relative to the RCP4.5 scenario, with particularly strong cooling over low-latitude continents. Globally averaged there is a weak but significant precipitation decrease of –2.35 [–0.57 to –2.96]% due to a colder climate, but at low latitudes there is a 1.19 % increase over land. This increase is part of a circulation change where a strong negative top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave forcing over subtropical oceans, caused by increased albedo associated with the increasing CDNC, is compensated for by rising motion and positive TOA longwave signals over adjacent land regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗