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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Framework of Multisource Data Fusion for Outage Location in Looped Distribution Systems

Accurate outage location is essential for expediting post-outage power restoration, minimizing outage duration, and enhancing the resilience of distribution networks. With the advent of advanced metering infrastructure, data-driven outage location methods have significantly advanced beyond traditional approaches that rely on manual inspections. However, existing methods still face critical challenges, like reliance on single-source data, limited ability to handle partially observable systems or difficulties with loop networks. To the best of our knowledge, no single approach has comprehensively addressed all of these challenges at once. To this end, this paper proposes a comprehensive multisource data fusion framework for outage locations via probabilistic graph networks. The framework consists of three key phases. First, a novel method for reconstituting distribution networks with loops is developed, transforming looped networks into multiple radial subnetworks that retain all outage causalities of the original network. Second, Bayesian network (BN) models are established for each subnetwork, integrating multiple data sources and network structures. Finally, a joint Gibbs sampling mechanism, featuring forward and backward information flow, is designed to merge data from separate BN models and maximize the utilization of limited evidence, ensuring accurate outage location identification. In conclusion, the framework was validated on two modified public test systems, and comparative studies confirmed its effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forward variable selection enables fast and accurate dynamic system identification with Karhunen-Loève decomposed Gaussian processes

A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed kernels have the potential to be very fast, and do not depend on the selection of a reduced set of inducing points. However KL decompositions lead to high dimensionality, and variable selection thus becomes paramount. This paper reports a new method of forward variable selection, enabled by the ordered nature of the basis functions in the KL expansion of the Bayesian Smoothing Spline ANOVA kernel (BSS-ANOVA), coupled with fast Gibbs sampling in a fully Bayesian approach. It quickly and effectively limits the number of terms, yielding a method with competitive accuracies, training and inference times for tabular datasets of low feature set dimensionality. Theoretical computational complexities are O ( N P 2 ) in training and O ( P ) per point in inference, where N is the number of instances and P the number of expansion terms. The inference speed and accuracy makes the method especially useful for dynamic systems identification, by modeling the dynamics in the tangent space as a static problem, then integrating the learned dynamics using a high-order scheme. The methods are demonstrated on two dynamic datasets: a ‘Susceptible, Infected, Recovered’ (SIR) toy problem, along with the experimental ‘Cascaded Tanks’ benchmark dataset. Comparisons on the static prediction of time derivatives are made with a random forest (RF), a residual neural network (ResNet), and the Orthogonal Additive Kernel (OAK) inducing points scalable GP, while for the timeseries prediction comparisons are made with LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks (RNNs) along with the SINDy package.

Hayes, Kyle↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian chain graph models to characterize microbe-environment dynamics

Microbiome data require statistical models that can simultaneously decode microbes' reaction to the environment and interactions among microbes. While a multiresponse linear regression model seems like a straight-forward solution, we argue that treating it as a graphical model is problematic given that the regression coefficient matrix does not encode the conditional dependence structure between response and predictor nodes. This observation is especially important in biological settings when we have prior knowledge on the edges from specific experimental interventions that can only be properly encoded under a conditional dependence model. Here, we propose a chain graph model with two sets of nodes (predictors and responses) whose solution yields a graph with edges that indeed represent conditional dependence, thus agreeing with the experimenter's intuition on the average behavior of nodes under treatment. The solution to our model is sparse via the Bayesian linear regression (LASSO). In addition, we propose an adaptive extension so that different shrinkages can be applied to different edges to incorporate edge-specific prior knowledge. Our model is computationally inexpensive through an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm and can account for binary, counting, and compositional responses via an appropriate hierarchical structure. We test the performance of our model in a variety of simulated datasets, thereby showing superior performance to state-of-the-art approaches. We further apply our model to human gut and soil microbial compositional datasets, and we highlight that CG-LASSO can estimate biologically meaningful network structures in the data.

compositional data↗
NASA NTRS1994

Operations for Learning with Graphical Models

This paper is a multidisciplinary review of empirical, statistical learning from a graphical model perspective. Well-known examples of graphical models include Bayesian net- works, directed graphs representing a Markov chain, and undirected networks representing a Markov field. These graphical models are extended to model data analysis and empirical learning using the notation of plates. Graphical operations for simplifying and manipulating a problem are provided including decomposition, differentiation, and the manipulation of probability models from the exponential family. These operations adapt existing techniques from statistics and automatic differentiation to graphs. Two standard algorithm schemes for learning are reviewed in a graphical framework: Gibbs sampling and the expectation maximization algorithm. Some algorithms are developed in this graphical framework including a generalized version of linear regression, techniques for feed-forward networks, and learning Gaussian and discrete Bayesian networks from data. The paper concludes by sketching some implications for data analysis and summarizing some popular algorithms that fall within the framework presented. The main original contributions here are the decomposition techniques and the demonstration that graphical models provide a framework for understanding and developing complex learning algorithms.

Buntine, Wray L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Software for Data Analysis with Graphical Models

Probabilistic graphical models are being used widely in artificial intelligence and statistics, for instance, in diagnosis and expert systems, as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities and independencies. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing statistical inference. This offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper illustrates the framework with an example and then presents some basic techniques for the task: problem decomposition and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

Buntine, Wray L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Joint Bayesian Component Separation and CMB Power Spectrum Estimation

We describe and implement an exact, flexible, and computationally efficient algorithm for joint component separation and CMB power spectrum estimation, building on a Gibbs sampling framework. Two essential new features are (1) conditional sampling of foreground spectral parameters and (2) joint sampling of all amplitude-type degrees of freedom (e.g., CMB, foreground pixel amplitudes, and global template amplitudes) given spectral parameters. Given a parametric model of the foreground signals, we estimate efficiently and accurately the exact joint foreground- CMB posterior distribution and, therefore, all marginal distributions such as the CMB power spectrum or foreground spectral index posteriors. The main limitation of the current implementation is the requirement of identical beam responses at all frequencies, which restricts the analysis to the lowest resolution of a given experiment. We outline a future generalization to multiresolution observations. To verify the method, we analyze simple models and compare the results to analytical predictions. We then analyze a realistic simulation with properties similar to the 3 yr WMAP data, downgraded to a common resolution of 3 deg FWHM. The results from the actual 3 yr WMAP temperature analysis are presented in a companion Letter.

numerical↗
NASA NTRS2019

Computational Bayesian Methods Applied to Complex Problems in Bio and Astro Statistics

In this dissertation we apply computational Bayesian methods to three distinct problems. In the first chapter, we address the issue of unrealistic covariance matrices used to estimate collision probabilities. We model covariance matrices with a Bayesian Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, which we fit with Gibbs sampling. In the second chapter, we are interested in determining the sample sizes necessary to achieve a particular interval width and establish non-inferiority in the analysis of prevalences using two fallible tests. To this end, we use a third order asymptotic approximation. In the third chapter, we wish to synthesize evidence across multiple domains in measurements taken longitudinally across time, featuring a substantial amount of structurally missing data, and fit the model with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in a simulation to analyze how estimates of a parameter of interest change across sample sizes.

Elrod, Chris↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum Markov chain Monte Carlo with digital dissipative dynamics on quantum computers

Modeling the dynamics of a quantum system connected to the environment is critical for advancing our understanding of complex quantum processes, as most quantum processes in nature are affected by an environment. Modeling a macroscopic environment on a quantum simulator may be achieved by coupling independent ancilla qubits that facilitate energy exchange in an appropriate manner with the system and mimic an environment. This approach requires a large, and possibly exponential number of ancillary degrees of freedom which is impractical. In contrast, we develop a digital quantum algorithm that simulates interaction with an environment using a small number of ancilla qubits. By combining periodic modulation of the ancilla energies, or spectral combing, with periodic reset operations, we are able to mimic interaction with a large environment and generate thermal states of interacting many-body systems. We evaluate the algorithm by simulating preparation of thermal states of the transverse Ising model. Our algorithm can also be viewed as a quantum Markov chain Monte Carlo process that allows sampling of the Gibbs distribution of a multivariate model. To illustrate this we evaluate the accuracy of sampling Gibbs distributions of simple probabilistic graphical models using the algorithm.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum Machine-Learning for Eigenstate Filtration in Two-Dimensional Materials

Quantum machine-learning algorithms have emerged to be a promising alternative to their classical counterparts as they leverage the power of quantum computers. Such algorithms have been developed to solve problems like electronic structure calculations of molecular systems and spin models in magnetic systems. However, the discussion in all these recipes focuses specifically on targeting the ground state. Herein we demonstrate a quantum algorithm that can filter any energy eigenstate of the system based on either symmetry properties or a predefined choice of the user. The workhorse of our technique is a shallow neural network encoding the desired state of the system with the amplitude computed by sampling the Gibbs–Boltzmann distribution using a quantum circuit and the phase information obtained classically from the nonlinear activation of a separate set of neurons. We show that the resource requirements of our algorithm are strictly quadratic. To demonstrate its efficacy, we use state filtration in monolayer transition metal dichalcogenides which are hitherto unexplored in any flavor of quantum simulations. We implement our algorithm not only on quantum simulators but also on actual IBM-Q quantum devices and show good agreement with the results procured from conventional electronic structure calculations. We thus expect our protocol to provide a new alternative in exploring the band structures of exquisite materials to usual electronic structure methods or machine-learning techniques that are implementable solely on a classical computer.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dimension-free path-integral molecular dynamics without preconditioning

Convergence with respect to imaginary-time discretization (i.e., the number of ring-polymer beads) is an essential part of any path-integral-based molecular dynamics (MD) calculation. However, an unfortunate property of existing non-preconditioned numerical integration schemes for path-integral molecular dynamics—including essentially all existing ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD) and thermostatted RPMD (T-RPMD) methods—is that for a given MD time step, the overlap between the exact ring-polymer Boltzmann–Gibbs distribution and that sampled using MD becomes zero in the infinite-bead limit. This has clear implications for hybrid Metropolis Monte Carlo/MD sampling schemes, and it also causes the divergence with bead number of the primitive path-integral kinetic-energy expectation value when using standard RPMD or T-RPMD. We show that these and other problems can be avoided through the introduction of “dimension-free” numerical integration schemes for which the sampled ring-polymer position distribution has non-zero overlap with the exact distribution in the infinite-bead limit for the case of a harmonic potential. Most notably, we introduce the BCOCB integration scheme, which achieves dimension freedom via a particular symmetric splitting of the integration time step and a novel implementation of the Cayley modification [R. Korol et al., J. Chem. Phys. 151, 124103 (2019)] for the free ring-polymer half-steps. More generally, we show that dimension freedom can be achieved via mollification of the forces from the external physical potential. The dimension-free path-integral numerical integration schemes introduced here yield finite error bounds for a given MD time step, even as the number of beads is taken to infinity; these conclusions are proven for the case of a harmonic potential and borne out numerically for anharmonic systems that include liquid water. The numerical results for BCOCB are particularly striking, allowing for nearly three-fold increases in the stable time step for liquid water with respect to the Bussi–Parrinello (OBABO) and Leimkuhler (BAOAB) integrators, while introducing negligible errors in the calculated statistical properties and absorption spectrum. Importantly, the dimension-free, non-preconditioned integration schemes introduced here preserve ergodicity and global second-order accuracy, and they remain simple, black-box methods that avoid additional computational costs, tunable parameters, or system-specific implementations.

Korol, Roman (ORCID:0000000193076351)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards the Accurate Thermodynamic Characterization of Enzyme Reaction Mechanisms

We employed QM/MM molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to characterize the rate-limiting step of the glycosylation reaction of pancreatic α-amylase with combined DFT/molecular dynamics methods (PBE/def2-SVP : AMBER). Upon careful choice of four starting active site conformations based on thorough reactivity criteria, Gibbs energy profiles were calculated with umbrella sampling simulations within a statistical convergence of 1 -2 kcal · mol -1 . Nevertheless, Gibbs activation barriers and reaction energies still varied from 11.0 to 16.8 kcal · mol -1 and -6.3 to +3.8 kcal · mol -1 depending on the starting conformations, showing that despite significant state-of-the-art QM/MM MD sampling (0.5 ns/profile) the result still depends on the starting structure. In conclusion, the results supported the one step dissociative mechanism of Asp197 glycosylation preceded by an acid-base reaction by the Glu233, which are qualitatively similar to those from multi-PES QM/MM studies, and thus support the use of the latter to determine enzyme reaction mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Specification of Radionuclide Classes for MELCOR Molten Salt Reactor Simulations

MELCOR has been used extensively to facilitate virtual investigations into severe nuclear accidents for light-water reactors (LWRs). Non-light water reactors (non-LWRs) render some LWR-centric approaches potentially unsuitable. MELCOR has been instrumental in analyzing source terms for LWRs and has recently expanded its applicability to non-LWRs. To simplify radionuclide (RN) tracking, MELCOR currently groups elements into 17 classes, each containing representative species. This grouping, optimized for LWRs, is not appropriate for non-LWRs due to the different chemistry. This necessitates a reevaluation of radionuclide transport modeling. This report introduces a new class scheme for MELCOR tailored to MSR modeling, expanding the current 17 classes to 32 and are explained in the context of a UF 4 fueled FLiBe carrier MSR. It provides a discussion and justification for the new groupings and outlines a methodology for discovering and defining additional classes in MELCOR using a sample calculated RN inventory and a Gibbs energy minimizer (GEM).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Water chemistry in flume channel and hyporheic zone (i.e., porewater) associated with: “Rethinking Aerobic Respiration in the Hyporheic Zone Under Variation in Carbon and Nitrogen Stoichiometry”

Dissolved oxygen (DO), total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), molecular data for organic matter, and biochemical reactions for surface water and porewater (i.e., hyporheic zone) collected from a water recirculating flume located at the University of Texas, Austin. The flume contained real river water from Lower Colorado River(Austin, TX) and clean sand. Hyporheic exchange in the flume was induced through The study aims to understand relationships between aerobic metabolism of organic matter and molecular characteristics of organic matter, such as thermodynamic signature and nitrogen content, through the extent of the hyporheic zone at 10 cm- resolution, and through time. During the experiment, organic matter (dry leaves) was added to the flume and removed after 24 hours. The water samples were collected before the addition of leaves, at the time of removal of leaves, and at hour 72. The water samples were analyzed using ultrahigh resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) and total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TN) analysis. Dissolved oxygen content throughout the surface water and the hyporheic zone of the flume was measured with a large planar optode. This data package is associated with the publication ’ Rethinking Aerobic Respiration in the Hyporheic Zone Under Variation in Carbon and Nitrogen Stoichiometry’ published in Environmental Science and Technology (Turețcaia et al., 2023 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.3c04765). The dataset is comprised of five folders (1) Diss_O2_pic, (2) input_files (3) output_files; (4) python_code; and (5) R_code . Diss_O2_pic contains siximages of dissolved oxygen distribution in a bedform at hours 0, 24, and 72 of the experiment conducted in a large recirculation flume. Images are in separate R and G channels (i.e., RGB). The input_files contains (1) a csv file with FTICR peaks identified within each sample, (2) a csv file with molecular information pertinent to FTICR data with Gibbs free energy calculations adjusted for environmental temperature, (3) a csv file containing concentrations of non-purgeable organic carbon measured throughout the experiment , (4) a csv file containing concentrations of total nitrogen measured throughout the experiment, (5) a csv file containing total biochemical reactions (i.e., transformations) identified in the dataset, (6) a csv containing transformation profiles, and (7) a csv file containing transformations with formulas, and (8) a jpg file with schematic representation of locations for sample collection. The output_files contains (1) and xlsx file containing percent biochemical reactions containing nitrogen identified across all 39 sample, (2) a csv file of merged FTICR data and molecular information files, (3) a csv files containing average Gibbs free energy within sampling domains and at each sampling location, (4) a csv file with average concentrations of dissolved oxygen across sampling locations at hour 0, (5) a csv file with average concentrations of dissolved oxygen across sampling locations at hour 24, (6) a csv file with average concentrations of dissolved oxygen across sampling locations at hour 72, (7) a csv file with percent chemical classes identified across sampling locations at hour 0, (8) a csv file with percent chemical classes identified across sampling locations at hour 24, (9) a csv file with percent chemical classes identified across sampling locations at hour 72, and (10) a csv file containing percent nitrogen containing biochemical reactions identified across sampling locations at hours 0, 24, and 72. The python_code contains seven ipynb files which are Jupyter Notebooks used for data analysis and figures generation. The R_code contains 3 R files with R code used for data analysis and figures generation. This data package contains the processed data used in the associated manuscript. This data has not been previously published.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Connectivity-informed drainage network generation using deep convolution generative adversarial networks

Abstract Stochastic network modeling is often limited by high computational costs to generate a large number of networks enough for meaningful statistical evaluation. In this study, Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Networks (DCGANs) were applied to quickly reproduce drainage networks from the already generated network samples without repetitive long modeling of the stochastic network model, Gibb’s model. In particular, we developed a novel connectivity-informed method that converts the drainage network images to the directional information of flow on each node of the drainage network, and then transforms it into multiple binary layers where the connectivity constraints between nodes in the drainage network are stored. DCGANs trained with three different types of training samples were compared; (1) original drainage network images, (2) their corresponding directional information only, and (3) the connectivity-informed directional information. A comparison of generated images demonstrated that the novel connectivity-informed method outperformed the other two methods by training DCGANs more effectively and better reproducing accurate drainage networks due to its compact representation of the network complexity and connectivity. This work highlights that DCGANs can be applicable for high contrast images common in earth and material sciences where the network, fractures, and other high contrast features are important.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck X. Bandpass and beam leakage corrections

We discuss the treatment of bandpass and beam leakage corrections in the Bayesian BeyondPlanck CMB analysis pipeline as applied to the Planck LFI measurements. As a preparatory step, we first apply three corrections to the nominal LFI bandpass profiles including removal of a known systematic effect in the ground measuring equipment at 61 GHz; smoothing of standing wave ripples; and edge regularization. The main net impact of these modifications is an overall shift in the 70 GHz bandpass of +0.6 GHz; we argue that any analysis of LFI data products, either from Planck or BeyondPlanck, should use these new bandpasses. In addition, we fit a single free bandpass parameter for each radiometer of the form Δ i = Δ 0 + $δ$ i , where Δ 0 represents an absolute frequency shift per frequency band and $δ$i is a relative shift per detector. The absolute correction is only fitted at 30 GHz with a full $\chi$ 2 -based likelihood, resulting in a correction of Δ 30 = 0.24 ± 0.03 GHz. The relative corrections are fitted using a spurious map approach, fundamentally similar to the method pioneered by the WMAP team, but without introducing many additional degrees of freedom. All bandpass parameters are sampled using a standard Metropolis sampler within the main BeyondPlanck Gibbs chain, and bandpass uncertainties are thus propagated to all other data products in the analysis. In total, we find that our bandpass model significantly reduces leakage effects. For beam leakage corrections, we adopt the official Planck LFI beam estimates without additional degrees of freedom, and only marginalize over the underlying sky model. We note that this is the first-time leakage from beam mismatch has been included for Planck LFI maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Thermodynamic properties and crystallization kinetics at high liquid undercooling

The heat capacities of liquid and crystalline Au-Pb-Sb alloys in the glass-forming composition range were measured with droplet emulsion and bulk samples. Based on the measured C(sub p) data, the entropy, enthalpy, and Gibbs free energy functions of the eutectic, solid mixture, and undercooled liquid were determined as a function of undercooling and compared with theoretical predictions. The results indicate an isentropic temperature at 313 + or - 5 K, which agrees well with experimental data for the glass transition. A kinetics analysis of the nucleation undercooling response suggests that the proper choice for the Gibbs free energy change during crystallization is most important in analyzing the nucleation kinetics. By classical nucleation theory, the prefactors obtained, based on a variety of theoretical predictions for the driving force, can differ by six orders of magnitude. If the nucleation rates are extrapolated to high undercooling, the extrapolations based on measured heat capacity data show agreement, whereas the predicted nucleation rates are inconsistent with results from drop tower experiments. The implications for microg experiments are discussed.

Fecht, Hans J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian time-varying occupancy model for West Nile virus in Ontario, Canada

Occupancy models determine the true presence or absence of a species by adjusting for imperfect detection in surveys. They often assume that species presences can be detected only if sites are occupied during a sampling season. We extended these models to estimate occupancy rates that vary throughout a sampling season as well as account for spatial dependence among sites. For these methods, we constructed a fast Gibbs sampler with the Pólya-Gamma augmentation strategy to conduct inference on covariate effects. We applied these methods to evaluate how environmental conditions and surveillance practices are associated with the presence of West Nile virus in mosquito traps across Ontario, Canada from 2002 to 2017. We found that urban land cover and warm temperatures drove viral occupancy, whereas viral testing on pools with higher proportions of Culex mosquitoes was more likely to result in a positive test for West Nile virus. Models with time-varying occupancy effects achieved much lower Watanabe-Akaike information criteria than models without such effects. Our final model had strong predictive performance on test data that included some of the most extreme seasons, demonstrating the promise of these methods in the study of pathogens spread by mosquito vectors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗