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DOE OSTI2016

Survey of Approaches to Generate Realistic Synthetic Graphs

A graph is a flexible data structure that can represent relationships between entities. As with other data analysis tasks, the use of realistic graphs is critical to obtaining valid research results. Unfortunately, using the actual ("real-world") graphs for research and new algorithm development is difficult due to the presence of sensitive information in the data or due to the scale of data. This results in practitioners developing algorithms and systems that employ synthetic graphs instead of real-world graphs. Generating realistic synthetic graphs that provide reliable statistical confidence to algorithmic analysis and system evaluation involves addressing technical hurdles in a broad set of areas. This report surveys the state of the art in approaches to generate realistic graphs that are derived from fitted graph models on real-world graphs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Outages Using an Interaction Graph Addressing Transient Stability

Cascading outages of power systems pose great threats to system security and reliability, potentially leading to large-scale blackouts. For analysis and mitigation of cascading outages, this paper proposes a transient stability-incorporated interaction graph. This graph statistically quantifies the interactions among line outages and instabilities of generators, which can model propagation paths and patterns of cascading outages. Compared with an interaction graph that only models line outages, this new interaction graph provides important insights on how transient instability occurs along with cascading outages. It also offers more effective strategies for mitigating outage propagation. The proposed interaction graph can be constructed from datasets of historical or simulated cascading events. It is demonstrated on an NPCC 140-bus system with mitigation strategies.

Guo, Zhenping↗

DOE OSTI2020

Connectivity, Centrality, and Bottleneckedness: On Graph Theoretic Methods for Power Systems

This report provides an introduction to selected graph theoretic topics with pertinence to the structural analysis of electric power grid and communication systems. We focus on methodologies for defining, scoring, and identifying connectivity, spectral, and bottleneckeness properties in graphs, as well as vertex and edge importance measures such as centrality. We apply these measures to power systems and communications graph data, discuss and visualize the results, and comment on computational aspects of these methods. We show that graph theoretic methods can provide useful insights into grid and communication network structure, leading to tools and methods that could be used by electric utility engineers to improve key grid and communication network characteristics, such as resilience and scalability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatiotemporal analysis and forecasting of PV systems, battery storage, and EV charging diffusion in California: A graph network approach

Not provided.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking the PCMCI Causal Discovery Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Systems

Causal discovery algorithms construct hypothesized causal graphs that depict causal dependencies among variables in observational data. While powerful, the accuracy of these algorithms is highly sensitive to the underlying dynamics of the system in ways that have not been fully characterized in the literature. In this report, we benchmark the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm in its application to gridded spatiotemporal systems. Effectively computing grid-level causal graphs on large grids will enable analysis of the causal impacts of transient and mobile spatial phenomena in large systems, such as the Earth’s climate. We evaluate the performance of PCMCI with a set of structural causal models, using simulated spatial vector autoregressive processes in one- and two-dimensions. We develop computational and analytical tools for characterizing these processes and their associated causal graphs. Our findings suggest that direct application of PCMCI is not suitable for the analysis of dynamical spatiotemporal gridded systems, such as climatological data, without significant preprocessing and downscaling of the data. PCMCI requires unrealistic sample sizes to achieve acceptable performance on even modestly sized problems and suffers from a notable curse of dimensionality. This work suggests that, even under generous structural assumptions, significant additional algorithmic improvements are needed before causal discovery algorithms can be reliably applied to grid-level outputs of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A General Materials Data Science Framework for Quantitative 2D Analysis of Particle Growth from Image Sequences

Abstract Phase transformations are a challenging problem in materials science, which lead to changes in properties and may impact performance of material systems in various applications. We introduce a general framework for the analysis of particle growth kinetics by utilizing concepts from machine learning and graph theory. As a model system, we use image sequences of atomic force microscopy showing the crystallization of an amorphous fluoroelastomer film. To identify crystalline particles in an amorphous matrix and track the temporal evolution of the particle dispersion, we have developed quantitative methods of 2D analysis. 700 image sequences were analyzed using a neural network architecture, achieving 0.97 pixel-wise classification accuracy as a measure of the correctly classified pixels. The growth kinetics of isolated and impinged particles were tracked throughout time using these image sequences. The relationship between image sequences and spatiotemporal graph representations was explored to identify the proximity of crystallites from each other. The framework enables the analysis of all image sequences without the requirement of sampling for specific particles or timesteps for various materials systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

ARCH: Large-scale knowledge graph via aggregated narrative codified health records analysis

Objective: Electronic health record (EHR) systems contain a wealth of clinical data stored as both codified data and free-text narrative notes (NLP). The complexity of EHR presents challenges in feature representation, information extraction, and uncertainty quantification. Here, to address these challenges, we proposed an efficient Aggregated naRrative Codified Health (ARCH) records analysis to generate a large-scale knowledge graph (KG) for a comprehensive set of EHR codified and narrative features. Methods: Using data from 12.5 million Veterans Affairs patients, ARCH first derives embedding vectors and generates similarities along with associated p-values to measure the strength of relatedness between clinical features with statistical certainty quantification. Next, ARCH performs a sparse embedding regression to remove indirect linkage between features to build a sparse KG. Finally, ARCH was validated on various clinical tasks, including detecting known relationships between entity pairs, predicting drug side effects, disease phenotyping, as well as sub-typing Alzheimer’s disease patients. Results: ARCH produces high-quality clinical embeddings and KG for over 60,000 codified and narrative EHR concepts. The KG and embeddings are visualized in the R-shiny powered web-API.3 ARCH achieved high accuracy in detecting EHR concept relationships, with AUCs of 0.926 (codified) and 0.861 (NLP) for similar EHR concepts, and 0.810 (codified) and 0.843 (NLP) for related pairs. It detected drug side effects with a 0.723 AUC, which improved to 0.826 after fine-tuning. Using both codified and NLP features, the detection power increased significantly. Compared to other methods, ARCH has superior accuracy and enhances weakly supervised phenotyping algorithms’ performance. Notably, it successfully categorized Alzheimer’s patients into two subgroups with varying mortality rates. Conclusion: The proposed ARCH algorithm generates large-scale high-quality semantic representations and knowledge graph for both codified and NLP EHR features, useful for a wide range of predictive modeling tasks.

Electronic health records↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transmission and Distribution Real-Time Analysis Software for Monitoring and Control: Design and Simulation Testing

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Cyber Contingency Analysis version 1.x

Contingency analysis based approach for quantifying and examining the resiliency of a cyber system in respect to confidentiality, integrity and availability. A graph representing an organization's cyber system and related resources is used for the availability contingency analysis. The mission critical paths associated with an organization are used to determine the consequences of a potential contingency. A node (or combination of nodes) are removed from the graph to analyze a particular contingency. The value of all mission critical paths that are disrupted by that contingency are used to quantify its severity. A total severity score can be calculated based on the complete list of all these contingencies. A simple n1 analysis can be done in which only one node is removed at a time for the analysis. We can also compute nk analysis, where k is the number of nodes to simultaneously remove for analysis. A contingency risk score can also be computed, which takes the probability of the contingencies into account. In addition to availability, we can also quantify confidentiality and integrity scores for the system. These treat user accounts as potential contingencies. The amount (and type) of files that an account can read to is used to compute the confidentiality score. The amount (and type) of files that an account can write to is used to compute the integrity score. As with availability analysis, we can use this information to compute total severity scores in regards to confidentiality and integrity. We can also take probability into account to compute associated risk scores.

Mackey, PatrickS.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Faster-than-real-time Simulation with Demonstration for Resilient DER Integration

The US electric grid is facing operational, stability, and security challenges. Transmission system operators need some measure of visibility into distribution system renewable generation. Distribution system generation needs to support transmission system voltage. The grid is experiencing an expansion in measurement systems. How to take full advantage of this expansion and defend against attacks, both cyber and physical, poses additional challenges. The Faster-than-real-time Simulation with demonstration for Resilient DER Integration project set out to do the following: a. Flatten the voltage profile through the feeders and system for cost saving and voltage stabilization needs. b. Increase the amount of intermittent distributed energy resources (IDERs) that could be deployed on a utility feeder and provide 100% or more energy needed for the demands on that feeder, and c. based on an accurate model (Digital Twin) of the utilities system, be able to detect any abnormalities on the utilities distribution system. To manage the voltage and increase IDER penetration (a,b), Graph Trace Analysis is employed in a time-series, optimal power flow to coordinate the time-varying feedback control setpoints of a distribution feeder’s utility control devices. Under the coordinated control are a Load Tap Changing Transformer, a voltage regulator, and five switched capacitor banks. The feeder serves over 2000 customers, the feeder secondaries are modeled, and the feeder has 2.3 MW of PV generation, corresponding to a 17.4% penetration of PV generation. The feeder model has over 12,000 components, where every customer load bus and PV generator are modeled. The accuracy of the power flow solution is compared against historical meter voltage measurements, the improvement in conservation voltage reduction energy savings as a function of the coordinated control desired voltage profile is investigated, and the increase in PV penetration of the coordinated control over the existing control is presented. To achieve improved control performance while observing system operation constraints, bellwether Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) voltage measurements are used to adjust the desired voltage profile used by the optimal power flow analysis. To detect and alleviate or negate attacks or failures on the distribution and transmission utility grids (c) the grid needs to be resilient and self-healing. In this project software was designed to do just that. At the center of the software is an Integrated System Model (ISM) that spans from transmission to secondary distribution. The ISM is employed in real-time abnormality detection, voltage stability forecasting, and multi-mode control. Testing results are presented for: 1—attacks on utility infrastructure; 2—energy savings from optimal control; 3—distribution system control response during a low voltage transmission system event; 4—cyber-attacks on PV inverters, where physical inverters are used in hard-ware-in-the-simulation-loop studies. Contributions of this work include real-time analysis that spans from three-phase transmission through secondary distribution; an approach for detecting abnormalities that employs measurements from three independent measurement systems; and a multi-mode distribution system control that responds to cyber-attacks, physical attacks, equipment failures, and transmission system needs.

Integrated System Model, Graph Trace Analysis, Adv↗

DOE OSTI2022

Structure-Informed Graph Learning of Networked Dependencies for Online Prediction of Power System Transient Dynamics

Online transient analysis plays an increasingly important role in dynamic power grids as the renewable generation continues growing. Traditional numerical methods for transient analysis not only are computationally intensive but also require precise contingency information as input, and therefore, are not suitable for online applications. Existing online transient assessment studies focus on the determination of post-contingency system stability or stability margin. Here, this paper develops a novel graph-learning framework, Deep-learning Neural Representation or DNR, for online prediction, of the time-series trajectories of the system states using initial system responses that can be measured by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The proposed DNR framework consists of two sequential modules: a Network Constructor that captures network dependencies among generators, and a Dynamics Predictor that predicts the system trajectories. The key to improved prediction performance is the introduction of the spatio-temporal message-passing operations into graph neural networks with structural knowledge. Its effectiveness and scalability are validated through comparative studies, demonstrating the prediction performance under different contingency scenarios for systems of different sizes. This framework provides a solution to online predicting post-fault system dynamics based on real-time PMU measurements. Additionally, it can also be applied to facilitate the offline transient simulation without simulating the entire trajectories.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2014

Discrete Mathematical Approaches to Graph-Based Traffic Analysis

Modern cyber defense and anlaytics requires general, formal models of cyber systems. Multi-scale network models are prime candidates for such formalisms, using discrete mathematical methods based in hierarchically-structured directed multigraphs which also include rich sets of labels. An exemplar of an application of such an approach is traffic analysis, that is, observing and analyzing connections between clients, servers, hosts, and actors within IP networks, over time, to identify characteristic or suspicious patterns. Towards that end, NetFlow (or more generically, IPFLOW) data are available from routers and servers which summarize coherent groups of IP packets flowing through the network. In this paper, we consider traffic analysis of Netflow using both basic graph statistics and two new mathematical measures involving labeled degree distributions and time interval overlap measures. We do all of this over the VAST test data set of 96M synthetic Netflow graph edges, against which we can identify characteristic patterns of simulated ground-truth network attacks.

Joslyn, Cliff A.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Phase-Space Detection of Cyber Events

Energy Delivery Systems (EDS) are a network of processes that produce, transfer and distribute energy. EDS are increasingly dependent on networked computing assets, as are many Industrial Control Systems. Consequently, cyber-attacks pose a real and pertinent threat, as evidenced by Stuxnet, Shamoon and Dragonfly. Hence, there is a critical need for novel methods to detect, prevent, and mitigate effects of such attacks. To detect cyber-attacks in EDS, we developed a framework for gathering and analyzing timing data that involves establishing a baseline execution profile and then capturing the effect of perturbations in the state from injecting various malware. The data analysis was based on nonlinear dynamics and graph theory to improve detection of anomalous events in cyber applications. The goal was the extraction of changing dynamics or anomalous activity in the underlying computer system. Takens' theorem in nonlinear dynamics allows reconstruction of topologically invariant, time-delay-embedding states from the computer data in a sufficiently high-dimensional space. The resultant dynamical states were nodes, and the state-to-state transitions were links in a mathematical graph. Alternatively, sequential tabulation of executing instructions provides the nodes with corresponding instruction-to-instruction links. Graph theorems guarantee graph-invariant measures to quantify the dynamical changes in the running applications. Results showed a successful detection of cyber events.

cyber anomaly detection↗

DOE OSTI2014

Synthetic Graph Generation for Data-Intensive HPC Benchmarking: Scalability, Analysis and Real-World Application

The benchmarking effort within the Extreme Scale Systems Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory seeks to provide High Performance Computing benchmarks and test suites of interest to the DoD sponsor. The work described in this report is a part of the effort focusing on graph generation. A previously developed benchmark, SystemBurn, allows the emulation of a broad spectrum of application behavior profiles within a single framework. To complement this effort, similar capabilities are desired for graph-centric problems. This report described the in-depth analysis of the generated synthetic graphs' properties at a variety of scales using different generator implementations and examines their applicability to replicating real world datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Applying Graph Analytics to Understand Compute Core Usage and Publication Trends in a Petascale Supercomputing Facility

The Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) runs Titan, the No. 4 supercomputer in the world, to deliver over four billion compute core hours every year to several scientific domains, in their pursuit of leadership science. In this paper, we analyze four years worth of heterogeneous log data sources from the OLCF resource fabric, capturing metadata on entities such as users (2,546), scientific project allocations (674), jobs (1,352,402) and publications (1,146), to derive insights into the trends in core hour usage and publications, across 35 science domains. We have constructed a scalable graph to represent the OLCF entities and apply rich graph analytics for our analysis. Based on this, we have analyzed the metadata across five dimensions, namely (1) quantitative analysis of Titan system usage, (2) quantitative analysis of OLCF publications, (3) correlation analysis between system usage and publications, (4) text analysis to derive OLCF research trends, and (5) utilization of graph mining for association analysis. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first of its kind to apply graph- based big data techniques to provide comprehensive insights on an HPC center's core hour usage and users' publication trends. Our results provide valuable details into an HPC center's core allocation program, measuring the productivity of scientific domains, the interplay between core usage and research output, accelerating collaboration, and in predicting new connections between resource entities.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt)↗

DOE OSTI2017

Using Water-Level Models to Conceptualize Groundwater-Flow Systems: Examples from the Nevada National Security Site - 17044

Analysis of water-level trends in well hydro-graphs can be used to better understand and conceptualize a groundwater-flow system. A water-level trend reflects the summation of all natural and anthropogenic stresses acting on the aquifer at the well location. Common stresses include recharge, evapotranspiration, barometric pressure, earth tides, and pumping. A water-level model (WLM) can be used as a tool to distinguish which stresses are affecting the trend and quantify the impact of each stress on the trend. A WLM is an analytical model that fits measured water levels to a synthetic curve representing the sum of one or more time-series components that explain the water-level trend. Time-series components include recharge pulses simulated with Gamma transforms of precipitation; long-term climatic trends and barometric-pressure responses simulated with moving averages of barometric pressure and water levels in background wells; tidal responses computed from theoretical tidal signals; and pumping drawdown simulated with Theis models. WLM examples are presented to show how to: (1) determine and decompose stresses affecting long-term water levels in wells; and (2) estimate short-term draw-downs in observation wells where drawdown is masked by environmental water-level fluctuations. (authors)

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Transductive Graph Neural Network learning for Grid Resilience Analysis

Power grids are critical infrastructures that require robust resilience analysis to ensure reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply. Traditional simulation-based methods for grid resilience analysis suffer from computational complexity and limited ability to capture the full spectrum of potential disruptions. This paper presents a novel approach to enhance grid resilience by leveraging transductive graph neural network (GNN) learning to identify critical nodes and links. By leveraging the graph structure and system features, GNNs effectively learn resilience metrics and accurately identify critical nodes based on actual grid operational behavior. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated through case studies on node criticality scoring and critical node/line identification in cascading outage scenarios. The results highlight the advantages of learning-based methods over traditional simulation-based approaches and their potential to revolutionize grid resilience analysis. The contributions of this paper include a graph-based scalable approach for fast cascading analysis, an inductive formulation for training GNN models, and a transfer learning-based approach to scale the model to largescale power systems.

grid resilience, graph neural networks, transducti↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Visual Comparison of Silent Error Propagation

High-performance computing (HPC) systems play a critical role in facilitating scientific discoveries. Their scale and complexity (e.g., the number of computational units and software stack) continue to grow as new systems are expected to process increasingly more data and reduce computing time. However, with more processing elements, the probability that these systems will experience a random bit-flip error that corrupts a program's output also increases, which is often recognized as silent data corruption. Analyzing the resiliency of HPC applications in extreme-scale computing to silent data corruption is crucial but difficult. An HPC application often contains a large number of computation units that need to be tested, and error propagation caused by error corruption is complex and difficult to interpret. Here, to accommodate this challenge, we propose an interactive visualization system that helps HPC researchers understand the resiliency of HPC applications and compare their error propagation. Our system models an application's error propagation to study a program's resiliency by constructing and visualizing its fault tolerance boundary. Coordinating with multiple interactive designs, our system enables domain experts to efficiently explore the complicated spatial and temporal correlation between error propagations. At the end, the system integrated a nonmonotonic error propagation analysis with an adjustable graph propagation visualization to help domain experts examine the details of error propagation and answer such questions as why an error is mitigated or amplified by program execution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗