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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

"Hidden" hydrothermal technical potential & technoeconomics: Revealing permeability & fluids with more data

Historical hydrothermal estimates have largely relied on temperature or heat flow estimates ignoring the need for natural flowing fluids. More accurate hydrothermal estimates require some indication of permeability and fluids that naturally exist in the subsurface. This paper describes a novel approach that includes proxies of permeability and fluids in hydrothermal estimates by leveraging the relatively data-rich Great Basin. Specifically, nameplate capacities (megawatts) of operating geothermal plants, negative (0 megawatt) locations and 48 geophysical and geologic features are used to used in eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression to make hydrothermal capacity predictions. Additionally, this work inputs the XGBoost-based hydrothermal predictions into the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to quantify technical capacity, its uncertainty and techno-economics. Compared to historical hydrothermal estimates, these predictions adhere to the 37 operating geothermal plants and negative locations. We present a method for subsampling the negative sites to bring the labels into balance that uses the geologic domain knowledge to proportionally represent negatives. Overall, the distributions of the hydrothermal technical capacity and the site levelized cost of energy are respectively much tighter, lower and more accurate than the previous estimates for the Great Basin, as they include geological and geophysical surrogates for permeability and fluids. Percentile (50th and 90th, median and high estimate, respectively) models provide bookends for these metrics.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Where does the dust deposited over the Sierra Nevada snow come from?

Abstract. Mineral dust contributes up to one-half of surface aerosol loading in spring over the southwestern United States, posing an environmental challenge that threatens human health and the ecosystem. Using self-organizing map (SOM) analysis with dust deposition and flux data from WRF-Chem and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), we identify four typical dust transport patterns across the Sierra Nevada, associated with the mesoscale winds, Sierra barrier jet (SBJ), North Pacific High (NPH), and long-range cross-Pacific westerlies, respectively. We find that dust emitted from the Central Valley is persistently transported eastward, while dust from the Mojave Desert and Great Basin influences the Sierra Nevada during mesoscale transport occurring mostly in winter and early spring. Asian dust reaching the mountain range comes either from the west through straight isobars (cross-Pacific transport) or from the north in the presence of the NPH. Extensive dust depositions are found on the west slope of the mountain, contributed by Central Valley emissions and cross-Pacific remote transport. In particular, the SBJ-related transport produces deposition through landfalling atmospheric rivers, whose frequency might increase in a warming climate.

Huang, Huilin (ORCID:0000000273286738)↗
DOE OSTI2024

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Updated Synthesis of the Projectile Point Typology and Chronology of Eastern Idaho

The eastern Idaho archaeological record is a unique confluence of the Great Basin, Columbia Plateau, and Great Plains, resulting in a diverse and complex projectile point sequence. This study presents a revised typology and chronology of projectile points in the region, grounded in a comprehensive review of over 750 diagnostic examples from 16 stratified sites and 110 associated radiocarbon dates. We reevaluate existing classifications and propose a revised chronological framework with regionally appropriate types. This study provides a thorough background to eastern Idaho projectile points and contributes to broader discussions of projectile point typology and chronology in the Desert West, offering a robust tool for future archaeological research in the region.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

GeoDAWN West Central Nevada EarthMRI Data

This submission includes both the original product resolution (OPR) and LiDAR point cloud (LPC) LiDAR data collected as part of GeoDAWN: Geoscience Data Acquisition for Western Nevada. The USGS Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (EarthMRI) and USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP), Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office, Natural Resources Conservation Services, and Bureau of Land Management have partnered to conduct airborne geophysical and 3DEP lidar surveys over parts of Nevada and California to collect information on undiscovered geothermal, critical mineral, and groundwater resources in the western Great Basin and the Walker Lane region.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

GeoDAWN Northwestern Elko County Nevada EarthMRI Data

This submission includes both the original product resolution (OPR) and LiDAR point cloud (LPC) LiDAR data collected as part of GeoDAWN: Geoscience Data Acquisition for Northwestern Elko County, Nevada. The USGS Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (EarthMRI) and USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP), Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office, Natural Resources Conservation Services, and Bureau of Land Management have partnered to conduct airborne geophysical and 3DEP lidar surveys over parts of Nevada and California to collect information on undiscovered geothermal, critical mineral, and groundwater resources in the western Great Basin and the Walker Lane region.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

GeoThermalCloud framework for fusion of big data and multi-physics models in Nevada and Southwest New Mexico

Our GeoThermalCloud framework is designed to process geothermal datasets using a novel toolbox for unsupervised and physics-informed machine learning called SmartTensors. More information about GeoThermalCloud can be found at the GeoThermalCloud GitHub Repository. More information about SmartTensors can be found at the SmartTensors Github Repository and the SmartTensors page at LANL.gov. Links to these pages are included in this submission. GeoThermalCloud.jl is a repository containing all the data and codes required to demonstrate applications of machine learning methods for geothermal exploration. GeoThermalCloud.jl includes: - site data - simulation scripts - jupyter notebooks - intermediate results - code outputs - summary figures - readme markdown files GeoThermalCloud.jl showcases the machine learning analyses performed for the following geothermal sites: - Brady: geothermal exploration of the Brady geothermal site, Nevada - SWNM: geothermal exploration of the Southwest New Mexico (SWNM) region - GreatBasin: geothermal exploration of the Great Basin region, Nevada Reports, research papers, and presentations summarizing these machine learning analyses are also available and will be posted soon.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A computer vision algorithm for interpreting lacustrine carbonate textures at Searles Valley, USA

Investigations of the paleohydrologies of pluvial lake systems have often employed lake carbonate deposits called “tufa” that grow subaqueously and can be preserved long after the drying of the lake. For this reason, tufa have been used as a proxy for minimum lake level. However, they exhibit a variety of textures that hold the potential to reveal richer paleoclimatological information. With the goal of determining if tufa texture can be used as a proxy for lake environment, this study investigates the textures of tufa at Mono Lake, California in comparison to the fossil tufa in Searles Valley, California. While observations in the last century suggest that the tufa in the Mono basin grew in waters similar to the modern, the tufa at Searles formed during the last glacial period, when the Great Basin contained a system of pluvial lakes on the scale of the modern Great Lakes. The tufa at both basins have been observed to have a range of classifiable textures, and new methods of inspecting visual data could be informative about what factors control these textures. To this end, a t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) algorithm is used to project images of the tufa at Searles and Mono into a coordinate space, allowing for simple, quantitative comparisons of the visual similarity of textures. In this work, the textures of tufa at Searles are compared to each other, as well as to the tufa at Mono. This study performs a robust assessment of the feasibility of Mono Lake as a modern analogue for Searles Valley. It finds that there is a justifiable basis for the comparison of certain fossil facies at Searles to the tufa at Mono, significant progress towards the goal of using texture as a metric for the environment in which tufa formed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sedimentary Geothermal Resources in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Texas

The objectives of this project were to (1) perform a literature review of sedimentary geothermal resources, (2) identify data sources and develop data-collection methodologies that characterize selected resources, (3) screen sedimentary basins and formations for sedimentary geothermal potential, and (4) evaluate the technical feasibility of one or more selected locations. Numerous publications have characterized geothermal resources within sedimentary basins. A literature search reviewed publications describing resources located in Colorado, Louisiana, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. The most attractive resources have high temperature gradients, low drilling costs, and reservoir permeabilities greater than 10 millidarcies (mD). Prospects in Colorado, Nevada, Texas, and Utah exhibit attractive characteristics and were chosen for further analysis. Sedimentary resources in Nevada and Utah are most attractive, followed by tested resources in Texas and untested resources in Colorado. The identified resources in Wyoming and Louisiana had lower geothermal gradients and were not evaluated. Reservoir modeling and techno-economic analysis were performed at Marys River Basin–North in Nevada. Geothermal energy production at this location is expected to have a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) ranging between 10 and 20 cents/kWh. Additional work may result in lower LCOE estimates at this location and at other attractive prospects in these three regions. The Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system of eastern Nevada and western Utah includes a lower carbonate aquifer unit, which has the potential for hosting both conduction- and convection-dominated geothermal systems. Mapping has identified lateral thickness variability expressed as a roughly 120–150-km-wide central corridor, which hosts the thickest and most continuous formations and extends from near Las Vegas north to the Idaho border. Purchase and analysis of privately held legacy seismic data could potentially compensate for the lack of sufficient data documenting measured depth to the lower carbonate aquifer unit. Multiple orogenies, extension episodes, and intrusive events have deformed and displaced the target formations of the lower carbonate aquifer unit. This structural complexity and potential for dipping reservoirs emphasizes the need for detailed geological, geophysical, and reservoir modeling. Heat flow within three Colorado sedimentary basins reviewed as part of this study was calculated in targeted studies by the Colorado Geologic Survey and Colorado School of Mines. These calculations are based on bottom-hole temperature data sets with significant limitations and some variability but produce values consistently higher than the global continental average of 65 mW/m2 for all three basins. Heat flow in the Raton Basin is the highest; however, permeability measurements from specific sedimentary formations with high heat flow have not been obtained. Promising formations for sedimentary geothermal systems were found in all three regions studied—Nevada-Utah, Colorado, and Texas. The next steps for developing sedimentary geothermal resources vary due to differences in available data and resource uncertainties. Additional scopes of work are recommended for identified basins in these three regions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Author Correction: Genome-guided isolation of the hyperthermophilic aerobe Fervidibacter sacchari reveals conserved polysaccharide metabolism in the Armatimonadota

Correction to: Nature Communicationshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53784-3, published online 4 November 2024 In the version of this article initially published, Table 1 did not include the properties of the taxa being proposed or refer directly to another location in the main manuscript describing the properties. As such, the original manuscript did not comply with Rule 27 (2)(c) of the ICNP. Also, Table 1 listed the order Fervidibacterales as the nomenclatural type for the class Fervidibacteria, which violates latest emended version of Rule 15 stating that the nomenclatural type for a class must be a genus. Below we provide a modification of Table 1 containing protologues with these errors corrected. We have also changed the order of the taxa in the table to meet the most common ordering. (Table presented.) Taxon names proposed under the ICNP Proposed taxon Etymology Description Genus Fervidibacter Fer.vi.di.bac’ter. L. masc. adj. fervidus, hot, steaming; N.L. masc. n. bacter, a rod; N.L. masc. n. Fervidibacter, a hot rod Thermophilic or hyperthermophilic inhabitants of freshwater thermal environments. All members are likely polysaccharide-degrading chemoheterotrophs with numerous carbohydrate-active enzymes encoded in their genomes. Aerobic, with high-affinity and/or low-affinity terminal oxidases present in the genomes. The oxidative pentose phosphate pathway and the tricarboxylic acid cycle are complete in genomes belonging to the genus. Gram-stain-negative and diderm cell envelope structure. Ovoid- to rod-shaped morphology. Spores are not formed. The genus is a distinct phylogenetic lineage in the family Fervidibacteraceae, the order Fervidibacterales, and the class Fervidibacteria in the phylum Armatimonadota. The type species is Fervidibacter sacchariT. Species Fervidibacter sacchari sac’cha.ri. N.L. gen. n. sacchari, of sugar Hyperthermophilic, microaerophilic, facultatively anaerobic, and grows chemoheterotrophically on monosaccharides and polysaccharides. Cells are ovoid- to rod-shaped, Gram-stain negative, and are 0.9–1.3 µm in width and 1.6–3.6 µm in length. Grows between 65 and 87.5 °C and an optimum temperature of 80 °C, and a pH range of 6.5–8.6 with an optimum pH of 7.5. Grows at an optimum O2 concentration of 5–10%. Grows on D-arabinose, D-galactose, D-glucose, D-rhamnose, D-ribose, D-xylose, chondroitin sulfate, colloidal chitin, galactan, gellan gum, guar gum, karaya gum, locust bean gum, xantham gum, xyloglucan, β-glucan, glycogen, starch, AFEX-pretreated corn stover, miscanthus, sugarcane bagasse, acetate and casamino acids. Grows weakly on xyloglucan under fermentation conditions. The major fatty acids (>10%) are C16:0, C18:0 and/or cyclo-C17:0, and iso-C16:0. The major respiratory quinones (>10%) are MK-8 and MK-9. The isolate and genomes of the species have been recovered from geothermal springs in the Great Basin, Nevada, USA. GC content of genomes range between 51–52%. Subunits for both the high-affinity and low-affinity terminal oxidases are encoded in the genomes. Genomes also encode a Group 3d [NiFe] hydrogenase, which produces hydrogen as an electron sink for NAD+ regeneration. The type strain PD1T (= JCM 39283T = DSM 113467T) was isolated from Great Boiling Spring in Nevada, USA. Family Fervidibacteraceae Fer.vi.di.bac.te.ra’ce.ae. N.L. masc. n. Fervidibacter type genus of the family; L. suff. -aceae ending to denote a family; N.L. fem. pl. n. Fervidibacteraceae the family of the genus Fervidibacter Thermophilic or hyperthermophilic inhabitants of freshwater thermal environments. All members are likely polysaccharide-degrading chemoheterotrophs with numerous carbohydrate-active enzymes encoded in their genomes. Aerobic, with high-affinity and/or low-affinity terminal oxidases present in the genomes. The oxidative pentose phosphate pathway and the tricarboxylic acid cycle are complete in genomes belonging to the family. The family is a distinct phylogenetic lineage in the order Fervidibacterales and the class Fervidibacteria in the phylum Armatimonadota. The type genus is Fervidibacter. Order Fervidibacterales Fer.vi.di.bac.te.ra’les. N.L. masc. n. Fervidibacter type genus of the order; L. suff. -ales ending to denote an order; N.L. fem. pl. n. Fervidibacterales the order of the genus Fervidibacter Thermophilic or hyperthermophilic inhabitants of freshwater thermal environments. All members are likely polysaccharide-degrading chemoheterotrophs with numerous carbohydrate-active enzymes encoded in their genomes. Aerobic or strictly anaerobic. Phylogenomic placement of this lineage within the Fervidibacteria and relative evolutionary divergence supports delineation of this lineage as an order within the class Fervidibacteria and phylum Armatimonadota. The type genus is Fervidibacter. Class Fervidibacteria Fer.vi.di.bac.te’ri.a. N.L. masc. n. Fervidibacter type genus of the type order of the class; L. suff. -ia ending to denote a class; N.L. neut. pl. n. Fervidibacteria the class of the order Fervidibacterales Thermophilic or hyperthermophilic inhabitants of freshwater thermal environments. All members are likely polysaccharide-degrading chemoheterotrophs with numerous carbohydrate-active enzymes encoded in their genomes. Aerobic or strictly anaerobic. Phylogenomic placement of this lineage within the Armatimonadota and relative evolutionary divergence supports delineation of this lineage as a class within the Armatimonadota. The type genus is Fervidibacter. The error has not been corrected in the PDF or HTML versions of the Article.

Nou, Nancy O↗
DOE OSTI2022

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

We report sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mass‐Conserving Downscaling of Climate Model Precipitation Over Mountainous Terrain for Water Resource Applications

Abstract A mass‐conserving method to downscale precipitation from global climate models (GCMs) using sub‐grid‐scale topography and modeled 700‐mb wind direction is presented. Runoff is simulated using a stand‐alone hydrological model, with this and several other methods as inputs, and compared to runoff simulated using historical observations over the western contiguous United States. Results suggest the mitigation of grid‐scale biases is more critical than downscaling for some regions with large wet biases (e.g., the Great Basin and Upper Colorado). In other regions (e.g., the Pacific Northwest) the new method produces more realistic sub‐grid‐scale variability in runoff compared to unadjusted GCM output and a simpler downscaling method. The presented method also brings the runoff centroid timing closer to that simulated with observations for all subregions examined.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Eocene-Oligocene Metamorphism, Fluid Flow and Deformation in the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range Metamorphic Core Complex

Metamorphic core complexes are ubiquitous in collapsed orogens globally and play a primary role in crustal exhumation. Here, we investigate the metamorphic history of the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range metamorphic core complex, Nevada, using petrochronology to understand how magmatism, metamorphism and deformation interact to modulate crustal rheology, and the timing of exhumation within the Sevier orogenic belt. Field study, microstructural analysis, thermobarometry and laser ablation split-stream monazite, titanite and allanite petrochronology of the mylonitic footwall were integrated to elucidate the pressure-temperature-time (P-T-t) evolution. Major-, trace-element and quartz-in-garnet thermobarometry show peak metamorphism occurred at 5.5–6 kbar and 600–650°C across the study area. Monazite and titanite U-(Th)-Pb petrochronology constrain this episode of metamorphism to 88–81 Ma with the structurally deepest samples yielding dates down to ca. 71 Ma. The preservation of peak metamorphic mineral assemblages indicates these rocks remained at near-peak temperature conditions into the Cenozoic. Cenozoic metamorphism occurred during a punctuated episode contemporaneous with the Great Basin ignimbrite flare up. All samples show a distinct 39–37 Ma population of monazite, titanite and allanite dates that correlate with the emplacement of quartz diorite and gabbro intrusions throughout the footwall. Accessory phases contain zoning textures in backscattered electron images that are consistent with fluid-mediated dissolution-reprecipitation reactions. The U-(Th)-Pb analyses from these zones yield 39–27 Ma dates interpreted as the timing of fluid flow. The results of this study elucidate the integrated importance of magmatism, melting and fluid flow in driving the coupled evolution of Late Cretaceous metamorphism within the Sevier hinterland and the subsequent Cenozoic metamorphic core complex development that exhumed the middle crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spring Dust in Colorado Plateau: Transport Pathways and Interannual Variability Derived From Two Decades of MERRA‐2 Reanalysis

Spring dust storms in the U.S. Southwest significantly impact environmental and human systems, yet their climatological patterns and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using two decades of MERRA-2 reanalysis data and self-organizing map clustering, we identified four distinct dust transport pathways from surrounding and remote deserts for the top 10% of spring dust events impacting the Colorado Plateau: (a) intense southwesterly near-surface transport where eastward upward transport is blocked by topography, (b) substantial remote transport plus weaker surface emissions, (c) moderate southwesterly transport with stronger upper-level transport, and (d) rare northwesterly pattern linked to the Great Basin sources, which accounts for 38%, 14%, 37%, and 11% of total events, respectively. The frequency and intensity of these events strongly correlate with large-scale climate variability, with increased dust events during La Niña. Our results provide a robust framework for improving seasonal dust forecasts and understanding future dust dynamics under climate change.

aerosol transport↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hawthorne Nevada Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study - Data Used for Geothermal Resource Conceptual Modeling and Power Capacity Estimates

This data submission includes several data components that were used to develop a conceptual model and power capacity-estimates of two low-temperature geothermal resources that define geothermal prospect A at Hawthorne, Nevada. Data are sourced from a combination of legacy publicly-available data and more recent data acquisition conducted by the US Navy Geothermal Program Office (2008-2013) and the Great Basin Center for Geothermal Energy at the University of Nevada, Reno (2008-2010). Data sets include compiled fluid geochemistry data, down-hole temperature logs for wells in the vicinity of prospect A, 2 meter temperature survey data, temperature-spinner logs acquired in well HWAAD-2A, fracture picks from image log data acquired in wells HWAAD-2 and HWAAD-3, and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) analyses on cuttings from wells HWAAD-2A and HWAAD-3. These data have been reviewed for errors and inconsistencies, but it is possible that few errors could still remain. The resource conceptual model and power capacity estimates are included in the final report to the US Department of Energy, and are presented in a manuscript by Ayling and Hinz. A link to the manuscript published in Geothermics is linked below in this submission.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wet and dry plastic deposition data for western US National Atmospheric Deposition Program sites (2017-2019)

Raw plastic counts and calculated plastic deposition rates for 11 National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) sites in the western USA recorded from 2017-2019. Samples were collected to determine plastic deposition rates in remote locations and identify the potential sources of plastic to the atmosphere. Samples were collected using an Aerochem Metrics Wet and Dry sampler. Wet deposition refers to the material retained on a 0.45-micron filter. Dry deposition refers to the dry only deposition collected using a Dry Side Insert (DSI) (Brahney et al. 2020). Plastics are identified as either fibers or particles (includes small colored films). Wet deposition rates are recorded weekly and dry plastic deposition rates are based on monthly sampling intervals. Sites included are Grand Canyon National Park (AZ03), Joshua Tree National Park (CA67), Rocky Mountain National Park (CO98), Niwot Ridge (CO02), Ashley National Forest (UT95), East River SFA (CO10)), Craters of the Moon National Park (ID03), Great Basin National Park (NV05), Canyonlands National Park (UT09), Bryce Canyon Nationa Park (UT99), and Wind River Range (WY06). Data collection is being published in collaboration with the Department of Energy's research project, "Constraining physical understanding of aerosol loading, biogeochemistry, and snowmelt hydrology from hillslope to watershed scale in the East River Scientific Focus Areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

GeoThermalCloud: Machine Learning for Geothermal Resource Exploration

Geothermal is a renewable energy source that can provide reliable and flexible electricity generation for the world. In the past decade, the U.S. Geological Survey's resource assessments, Play Fairway Analyses (PFA), and GeoVision report by the U.S. Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Office provided insights on enormous untapped potential for geothermal energy to contribute to the U.S. domestic energy needs. The past studies identified that geothermal resources without surface expression (e.g., blind/hidden hydrothermal systems) comprise a huge potential. These blind systems can significantly increase power generation. But a primary challenge is locating and quantifying these hidden resources, which do not have any thermal manifestations on the surface. PFA has successfully identified some blind systems in the western USA (e.g., specific locations in the Great Basin region within Nevada). However, a comprehensive search for these blind systems can be time-consuming, expensive, and resource-intensive with a low probability of success. Accelerated discovery of these blind resources is needed with growing energy needs and higher chances of exploration success. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have shown promise in shortening the timeline for this discovery. This paper presents a novel ML-based methodology for geothermal exploration towards PFA applications. Our methodology is provided through our open-source ML framework called GeoThermalCloud \url{https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl}. GeoThermalCloud uses a series of unsupervised, supervised, and physics-informed ML methods available in SmartTensors AI platform \url{https://github.com/SmartTensors}. Here, the presented analyses are performed using our unsupervised ML algorithm called NMF$k$, which is available in the SmartTensors AI platform. Our ML algorithm facilitates the discovery of new phenomena, hidden patterns, and mechanisms that helps us to make informed decisions. Moreover, the GeoThermalCloud enhances the collected PFA data and discovers signatures representative of geothermal resources. Through GeoThermalCloud, we were able to identify hidden patterns in the geothermal field data needed for the efficient discovery of blind systems. Crucial geothermal signatures often overlooked in traditional PFA are extracted using GeoThermalCloud and analyzed by the subject matter experts to provide ML-enhanced PFA, which is informative for efficient exploration. We applied our ML methodology on various open-source geothermal datasets within the U.S. (some of these are collected by past PFA work), and the results provide valuable insights on resource types within those explored regions. This ML-enhanced workflow makes GeoThermalCloud attractive for the geothermal community to improve existing datasets and extract valuable information often unnoticed during geothermal exploration.

machine learning (ML), geothermal energy↗