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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Future marine biofuels in the port of Seattle region

Marine transportation, a vital global sector, emits 3% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions, which are predicted to increase in the future. Marine biofuels derived from biomass or waste sources like wood residue, waste oil and municipal solid waste can be used for decarbonization. However, limited studies have explored if sufficient marine biofuels could be produced and supplied to major regional ports given feedstock, supply chain and technological constraints. We fill this gap by evaluating the feasibility of supplying marine biofuels to the Port of Seattle. The Regional Bio-Economy Model (RBEM) and the Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT) are used to build scenarios for simulating marine biofuel production in the Port region. We harmonized technoeconomic assumptions for RBEM and FTOT, input FTOT feedstock utilization and routing outputs into RBEM, and modelled conversion, feedstock, and policy scenario variations in RBEM. In RBEM, overall biofuel production was constrained primarily by the biofuel cost, and then by feedstock availability. Providing policy incentives and reducing permitting time frames alleviated these constraints and spurred the buildout of a robust industry through industrial learning dynamics in the initial years. With these measures in place, the RBEM results show that 100% of fuel demand at the Port can be supplied by biofuels with policy incentives and suitable technoeconomic conditions, but the addition of transportation cost considerations using FTOT led to 27.8% of demand being able to be met by biofuels at reasonable fuel delivery cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multitude Characterization and Prediction of DOE Advanced Biofuels Properties

Advanced multitude of experiments ranging from the liquid fuel to combustion are conducted on Co-OPTIMA fuels to aid the characterization of the fuels. The series of targeted experiments characterized Co-OPTIMA fuel spray atomization, flame topology, flame speed, autoignition, volatility, viscosity, soot/coking, and compatibility. The fuels are selected and prioritized based on input from national lab members. The research characterized and predicted biomass-based, low greenhouse gas fuels and blends combustion, autoignition, and physical properties of mixtures of identified compounds at engine-relevant conditions, in particular those properties that blend non-linearly. The main challenge of Co-OPTIMA is the evaluation of a variety of biofuels and blends in all the reaction conditions that might be encountered in new high-efficiency engines. Despite the improved high-throughput experimental techniques, it seems unlikely that all of the performance metrics could be measured for all relevant petroleum derived, bio-derived molecules and mixtures, and reaction conditions. A series of targeted experiments ranging from the liquid fuel to the combustion process is required, and to extract the maximum information from each experiment. These targeted experiments evaluated how a specific fuel will perform in an engine. The series of targeted experiments are as follows: (a) Spray Atomization, Vaporization and Droplet Formation (b) Combustion Flame and Local Fuel/Air Image-Based Measurements (c) Laminar Flame Speed Measurements (d) Autoignition and Soot Measurements (e) Synchrotron Coupled Fundamental Autoignition Experiments (f) Fuel Coking and Hot Surface Deposit g) Fuel Volatility Measurements (h) Viscosity Measurements (i) Seal Flexible Fuel Compatibility These experimental processes provide an essential pathway for the prediction of fuel behaviors in engines and systematic process for fuel down select.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microbiome assembly in thawing permafrost and its feedbacks to climate

Abstract The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost–climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post‐thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw‐mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well‐suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high‐disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post‐thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower‐intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post‐thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Separation of CO 2 from Flue Gas and Potential for Geologic Sequestration

The objectives of this study were to review various methods reported in the literature for the separation and geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide and evaluate the potential of TVA fossil fuel-burning plant locations for onsite geologic sequestration of CO 2 from stack emissions. Several conventional and nonconventional technologies for the separation of CO 2 from flue gas, including absorption, adsorption, cryogenic distillation, membranes, hydrate formation and dissociation, and ammonia carbonation, have been reviewed in terms of separation mechanisms, flow diagrams, and costs. Most of the technologies that have been reviewed are still at the research and development stage. Critical information needed to assess and compare these technologies is still lacking. In addition, information on some of the technologies that have been tested at a pilot or industrial scale has not been fully disclosed in the open literature. Because of this lack of data, it is difficult to make a critical assessment of each of the separation technologies. Based on limited information, it was concluded that the most promising methods are membrane separation and the Mitsubishi process for chemical absorption. Both processes involve separating CO 2 at high temperature, minimizing the cost for cooling prior to separation. Physical and chemical geologic formations of CO 2 were also reviewed. It was concluded that due to the geologic time scale of CO 2 sequestration periods, relatively safe conditions, general proximity to CO 2 sources, and extensive knowledge of underground conditions, sequestration of CO 2 in underground aquifers and coal beds is a very promising method of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. The cost is predicted to be relatively low and the suitable sites are numerous for this application, with many of these sites located close to the plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-frequency Data Integration for Landscape Model Calibration of Carbon Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Marshes

Terrestrial Aquatic Interfaces (TAIs), and tidal wetlands in particular, store large amounts of carbon yet are not well represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Predictions of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. Eddy covariance (EC) towers provide ecosystem-scale GHG flux data at a temporal resolution (every 30min) that is helpful for parameterizing and improving mechanistic realism in ESMs. We propose to use a network of eddy covariance towers and standardized ancillary data streams, along with mesocosm experiments and statistical analyses, across diverse tidal wetlands of North America to develop and improve biogeochemical modeling at the TAI. Our overarching objective is to improve understanding and process-based modeling of gross primary productivity (GPP) and CH4 emission responses, both non-linear and asynchronous, to stressors including plant inundation, disturbance, salinity and nitrogen loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Measurements of Soot and Soot Precursors of Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are promising for decarbonizing the challenging-to-electrify aerospace sector and reducing yearly greenhouse gas emissions by thousands of tons. Developing predictive detailed chemical kinetic models for SAF (and traditional) fuel mixtures necessitates a robust experimental database to elucidate the intricate pyrolysis and oxidation chemistry of SAF fuel blend components. Two critical components of SAF surrogate mixtures are iso-dodecane isomers and trans-decalin. This report characterizes the structure of three slightly sooting, laminar, non-premixed, nitrogen-diluted Planar Mixing Layer Flames (PMLFs) fueled by either pure ethylene, ethylene doped with 1500ppm of either 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane or trans-decalin. The flames have the same stoichiometric mixture fraction and total mole fraction of fuels in the fuel stream (X F,F = X C2H4,F + X Dopant,F = 0.26), resulting in approximately the same maximum temperature (T max ≈ 1800 K) to highlight the effect of doping on soot and its gaseous precursors. The PMLF is unconfined and established between adjacent planar jets of the fuel and oxidizer streams surrounded by annular shielding nitrogen. The flow is stabilized by exhausting the hot buoyant flame products through a slot in a downstream plate onto which the cold flow impinges. Importantly, any horizontal cross-section of the PMLF has a self-similar thermochemical structure of a reactive boundary layer that grows at increasing Height Above the Burner (HAB). Therefore, the horizontal cross-sections of a PMLF can be modeled as a One-Dimensional Counterflow Flame (1D-CF) with very low strain rates which are unachievable in traditional CFs and yield a structure that is several millimeters thick. In brief, the PMLF is ideal for performing spatially resolved measurements with minimal effects of the sampling-induced perturbations, to develop and validate detailed chemical kinetic models on time scales of a few tens of milliseconds that are relevant in aviation applications. The horizontal profiles of C0-C18 gaseous species at HAB = 50 mm and soot volume fraction at 25 and 50 mm are measured using capillary sampling followed by GC-MS analyses and Laser Induced Emission Spectroscopy (LIES), respectively. Additionally, the Elastic Laser Light Scattering (E-LLS) coefficient is measured at HAB = 50 mm and 25 mm to determine the strain rates of the 1D-CFs equivalent to the characterized PMLF horizontal cross sections and the profile of the E-LLS equivalent diameter of soot. The comparison of the results in the base PMLF fueled only by ethylene with those in either doped PMLF in which 1500 ppm of ethylene are replaced with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane or trans-decalin, reveals that the doping increases the mole fraction of several Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) at both HABs by a factor of approximately 2.5, and the soot volume fraction at both HABs by factors of ~1.5 for 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane and ~1.25 for trans-decalin doping, respectively. Conversely, doping causes a near doubling of the soot equivalent diameter only at HAB = 50 mm, without significant effects at 25 mm. The experimental results partially validate the tested state-of-the-art detailed chemical kinetic model and also point toward the further improvement of its predictive capabilities.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future climate change in the Agulhas system and its associated impact on South African rainfall

South African climate variability has been linked to changes in both the Agulhas system and external forcing (i.e. CO 2 and ozone). We analysed future climate change in the Agulhas system volume transport and its associated impacts on South Africa’s precipitation using the Community Climate System Model version 4 as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5. Output from one historical and three future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were examined to project various climate storylines. We found that the Agulhas Current volume transport decreases across all three scenarios and that the current displays a strong baroclinic component with an increase in transport at the surface and decrease at intermediate depths. Agulhas leakage was found to increase with historical emissions. Additionally, an east-west dipole pattern for convective precipitation was found over South Africa, with an increase over the eastern region related to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a decrease in the western region linked to the location of Hadley cell edge latitude. Moving into the 21st century, future predictions in regional climate variability are shown to be dependent on the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions and are extremely important for South Africa, a region prone to drought and flooding and home to a large population dependent on rain-fed agriculture.Significance:Future climate variability in the Agulhas system and South African region is heavily dependent on changes in external forcing.The Agulhas Current volume transport decreases as the greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase and a strong baroclinic component is found with an increase in transport at the surface and a decrease at the intermediate depths.A strong east-west dipole precipitation pattern is found over South Africa with the increase in the eastern region related to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the decrease in the western region related to the location of the Hadley cell edge latitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning to predict biomass sorghum yields under future climate scenarios

Crop yield modeling is critical in the design of national strategies for agricultural production, particularly in the context of a changing climate. Forecasting yields of bioenergy crops at fine spatial resolutions can help to evaluate near-term and long-term pathways for scaling up bio-based fuel and chemical production, and for understanding the impacts of abiotic stressors such as severe droughts and temperature extremes on potential biomass supply. In this work we used a large dataset of 28,364 Sorghum bicolor yield samples (uniquely identified by county and year of observation), environmental variables, and multiple approaches to analyze historical trends in sorghum productivity across the USA. We selected the most accurate machine learning approach (a variation of the random forest approach) to predict future trends in sorghum yields under four greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios and two irrigation regimes. We identified irrigation practices, vapor pressure deficit, and time (a proxy for technological improvement) as the most important predictors of sorghum productivity. Our results showed a decreasing trend of sorghum yields over future years (on average 2.7% from 2018 to 2099), with greater decline under a high GHG emissions scenario (3.8%) and in the absence of irrigation (4.6%). Geographically, we observed the steepest predicted declines in the Great Lakes (8.2%), Upper Midwest (7.5%), and Heartland (6.7%) regions. Our study demonstrates the use of machine learning to identify environmental controllers of sorghum biomass yield and predict yields with reasonable accuracy. These results can inform the development of more realistic biomass supply projections for bioenergy if sorghum production is scaled up. (c) 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N2O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on approximately 12,000 N2O chamber measurements at 17 U.S. Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N2O at both training (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, water-filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature, and biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

agricultural sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the effects of climate change on the cross-scale epidemiological dynamics of a fungal plant pathogen

The potential for climate change to exacerbate the burden of human infectious diseases is increasingly recognized, but its effects on infectious diseases of plants have received less attention. Understanding the impacts of climate on the epidemiological dynamics of plant pathogens is imperative, as these organisms play central roles in natural ecosystems and also pose a serious threat to agricultural production and food security. We use the fungal ‘flax rust’ pathogen (Melampsora lini) and its subalpine wildflower host Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) to investigate how climate change might affect the dynamics of fungal plant pathogen epidemics using a combination of empirical and modeling approaches. Our results suggest that climate change will initially slow transmission at both the within- and between-host scales. However, moderate resurgences in disease spread are predicted as warming progresses, especially if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase at its current pace. These findings represent an important step towards building a holistic understanding of climate effects on plant infectious disease that encompasses demographic, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes. A core result is that neglecting processes at any one scale of plant pathogen transmission may bias projections of climate effects, as climate drivers have variable and cascading impacts on processes underlying transmission that occur at different scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform - 4P Model

Global momentum is building towards a circular economy capable of keeping plastics in use and out of waste streams. Given that 79% of all plastic produced since 1950 has accumulated in landfills or the natural environment,rapid implementation of various end-of-life (EoL) management technologies will be needed to reach this target. However, it can be challenging to develop an effective plastic EoL strategy when the available options - chemical or molecular recycling, energy recovery, upcycling, downcycling, closed-loop (plastic-to-plastic) or open-loop (plastic-to-x) recycling, among others - can generate products ranging from low-grade to virgin-quality plastic and from fuels to value-added chemicals. We present a flexible material flow model capable of analyzing the effects of both plastic-to-plastic and plastic-to-x EoL management strategies on the U.S. PET economy. This Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) assesses the environmental impacts, costs, and circularity of a PET system in which waste is managed through six potential EoL pathways: landfill, incineration with energy recovery, pyrolysis to fuel oil, upcycling to glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP), mechanical recycling to low-grade PET, and chemical recycling (glycolysis) to bottle-grade PET. We compare the pathways across multiple metrics using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and then use a brute force algorithm to predict an optimal combination of EoL pathways to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs and maximize circularity. This work highlights the need to implement a diverse portfolio of EoL strategies in parallel to enable a PET economy that meets environmental, economic, and circularity requirements simultaneously.

downcycling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation “Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects” at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24 , 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is critical for mitigating climate change but requires effective subsurface reservoir management to ensure safe containment of injected CO2. Accurate predictions of reservoir pressure and saturation are essential for assessing long-term CCS performance. Traditional numerical simulations, while effective, are computationally intensive, time-consuming, and constrained by data discretization. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph-based machine learning framework, as an innovative alternative for predicting reservoir behavior. MGN leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) and mesh representations to model complex geological formations, offering superior adaptability across different discretizations and reservoir configurations. Classic MGN implementations utilize an autoregressive technique to predict future behavior based on current predictions, but this technique is hampered by error accumulation over time. To enhance the model accuracy in time-series predictions, this study implemented a multi-step rollout strategy that integrates autoregressive predictions during training to stabilize prediction of saturation over time. Using the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset, comprising 100 simulations of CO2 injection, pressure, and saturation changes, the framework demonstrated its ability to learn spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. With inputs including permeabilities, porosities, and injection rates, MGN accurately predicted CO2 plume evolution over time, even with limited training data. Moreover, the addition of a multi-step rollout procedure during training improved the ability of MGN to predict stably over time by ~15%. This research positions MGN, enhanced with multi-step rollout capabilities, as a robust and efficient tool for CCS applications. It advances the field by enabling precise, computationally efficient predictions of reservoir behavior, providing a foundation for the broader adoption of machine learning frameworks in CCS and other geoscience domains.

Holcomb, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2021

Smart Monitoring and Diagnostic System (SMDS) for Packaged Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps for Small/Medium Commercial Buildings: Preparation for Commercialization: CRADA 478 [Abstract only]

This project will enable Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and industry partner, mCloud Technologies, to work collaboratively to ready the Smart Monitoring and Diagnostic System (SMDS) for commercial deployment and validate its performance under real-world conditions at field sites. This project will specifically focus on 1) implementing the SMDS algorithms in a scalable cloud-based software architecture, 2) designing new, innovative, complimentary commercial services based on the SMDS, 3) enhancing the SMDS energy and cost impact algorithms to reduce uncertainty in estimates, 4) determining the lower limits on SMDS performance degradation detection, 5) validating algorithm performance and default values of adjustable thresholds with existing data from controlled physical testing and from customer packaged air conditioners and heat pumps (commonly referred to as rooftop units or RTUs), 6) field testing to validate the system on multiple customer buildings in diverse environments, and 7) expanding field deployment to a larger set of mCloud’s customer buildings. Project results by validating, enhancing, and quantifying the performance of the SMDS will position mCloud, and potential future licensees, to implement the SMDS in commercial offerings that encourage and enable use of condition-based and predictive maintenance, leading to significant reductions in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with space conditioning by RTUs. Furthermore, these enhancements will increase the value of the SMDS for users and increase the potential market for its use and impacts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall: aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies

Over the 20th and 21st centuries, both anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and changes in anthropogenic aerosols have affected rainfall in the Sahel. Using multiple characteristics of Sahel precipitation, we construct a multivariate fingerprint that allows us to distinguish between the model-predicted responses to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Models project the emergence of a detectable signal of aerosol forcing in the middle of the 20th century and a detectable signal of greenhouse gas forcing at the beginning of the 21st. However, the signals of both aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in observations emerge earlier and are stronger than in the models, far stronger in the case of aerosols. The similarity between the response to aerosol forcing and the leading mode of internal variability makes it difficult to attribute this model-observation discrepancy to errors in the forcing, errors in the forced response, model inability to capture the amplitude of internal variability, or some combination of these. For greenhouse gases, however, the forced response is distinct from internal variability as estimated by models, and the observations are largely commensurate with the model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of the effects of turbulence modeling on the prediction of compression-ignition combustion unsteadiness

Adverse effects of global warming due to the greenhouse gas emissions is changing the actual paradigm for the use energy resources. In the absence of a mid-term solution for reducing these emissions in transportation, internal combustion (IC) engines are going to coexist in the social spheres in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the study of other IC engine-related problems remains relevant to ensuring the health of the society. In this investigation, a numerical methodology for comprehensive understanding of Noise, Vibration and Harshness in internal combustion engines is proposed. Due to its inherent complexity and lack of awareness, the main objective is to evaluate the impact of the turbulence modeling framework on the in-cylinder acoustic field recreation. Modal decomposition methods have been applied to isolate the coherent flow structures and to analyze how they change with the turbulence approach. Results demonstrate that the choice of the turbulence model is a critical aspect for noise modeling. Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes schemes predict a raw estimation of the internal acoustic field with the added value of being computationally less expensive. However, the use of more complex turbulence approaches such us large eddy simulation offers an accurate prediction of the acoustic structures and their cyclic dispersion.

Broatch, A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning-based spatio-temporal estimate of greenhouse gas emissions using satellite data

Accurate estimation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions is very important for developing mitigation strategies to climate change by controlling and reducing GHG emissions. This project aims to develop multiple deep learning approaches to estimate anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions using multiple types of satellite data. NO2 concentration is chosen as an example of GHGs to evaluate the proposed approach. Two sentinel satellites (sentinel-2 and sentinel-5P) provide multiscale observations of GHGs from 10-60m resolution (sentinel-2) to ~kilometer scale resolution (sentinel-5P). Among multiple deep learning (DL) architectures evaluated, two best DL models demonstrate that key features of spatio-temporal satellite data and additional information (e.g., observation times and/or coordinates of ground stations) can be extracted using convolutional neural networks and feed forward neural networks, respectively. In particular, irregular time series data from different NO 2 observation stations limit the flexibility of long short-term memory architecture, requiring zero-padding to fill in missing data. However, deep neural operator (DNO) architecture can stack time-series data as input, providing the flexibility of input structure without zero-padding. As a result, the DNO outperformed other deep learning architectures to account for time-varying features. Overall, temporal patterns with smooth seasonal variations were predicted very well, while frequent fluctuation patterns were not predicted well. In addition, uncertainty quantification using conformal inference method is performed to account for prediction ranges. Overall, this research will lead to a new groundwork for estimating greenhouse gas concentrations using multiple satellite data to enhance our capability of tracking the cause of climate change and developing mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗