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High-Fidelity, Large-Scale, Realistic Dataset Development

The final report summarizes the work performed for supporting the ARPA-E Grid Optimization Competition (Challenge 2 and Challenge 3) within the stated period. Challenge 2 For the challenge period, the main responsibility of the team is to investigate, gen- erate, and deliver parts of the data sets for the competition, based on the competition model for Challenge 2, existing data sets from Challenge 1, and data source supplied by other data set teams. Challenge 3 For the challenge period, the main responsibility of the team is to propose, create, deliver, and maintain the data format during the competition period. The data format will specify how the benchmark data will be represented and communicated to competitors. It will also specify how competitors should report back the solutions. The data format will be closely aligned with the problem formulation (maintained by the formulation team) and the solution validation process (maintained by the validation team). Our team is also responsible in investigating, generating, and delivering parts of the data sets for the competition. The data sets will be created based on the competition model for Challenge 3, existing data sets from Challenge 1 and Challenge 2, and data source supplied by other data set teams.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

An Optimized Parameterization of Sub‐Grid Scale Advection for Convection Permitting Models

Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve deep convection yet under‐resolve the organized lateral exchanges among drafts and their environment that control entrainment/detrainment, precipitation efficiency, and mesoscale structure. In this work, we introduce the Optimized Advection Scheme (OAS), which introduces a small rotation of the Cartesian frame of reference for the horizontal winds relative to other variables used in advection that induces cross‐gradient transport to mimic under‐resolved convective mixing. The rotation angle is selected to minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the simulated and satellite observed precipitation intensity distributions, yielding a physically consistent perturbation that is computationally inexpensive and portable. Optimized Advection Scheme is implemented in WRF and evaluated over Amazon (April 2014). It shifts precipitation–precipitable‐water joint distributions toward lighter rain, reduces overly intense rates, and improves mesoscale convective system (MCS) lifetime and propagation. Mechanistically, the added cross‐gradient transport promotes convective detrainment and environmental mixing, which cools and moistens the mid‐troposphere, weakens downward momentum transport, alleviates excessive downwelling shortwave biases, and warms the surface temperature. The optimized rotation angle yields comparable improvements at 4‐km and 1‐km grid spacing, demonstrating resolution‐independent benefits across the CPM gray zone. By targeting the dynamical root of under‐mixed convective circulations, rather than tuning model microphysics or closures, OAS delivers robust, scale‐aware improvements in precipitation statistics, cloud vertical structure, and characteristics of MCS (MCSs), offering a practical pathway to more reliable CPM simulations for weather and climate applications.

CPM

LLGoMAX : Enhancing Industry-Standard Tools for AC Optimal Unit Commitment

In 2018, the Advanced Research Project Agency – Energy (ARPA-E) launched the Grid Optimization Competition (GOC) [1], a series of competitive challenges intended to accelerate innovation in decision support software used to schedule power grid operations, making them as efficient as possible, while respecting operational constraints of power equipment and operational security. This report covers the participation of the LLGoMAX team—a collaboration of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and ECCO International, Inc.—in Challenge 3 of the competition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Synchronous Machine Governor Upgrade

Conventional generation sources play a critical role in the stability and reliability of the electrical grid, particularly as we transition towards more renewable energy sources. To understand and accurately emulate their behavior for optimizing grid operations and ensuring seamless integration with renewable technologies, it is essential to better emulate the grid- and plant-level impacts of conventional generation sources, such as natural gas (NG) driven heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs) and combustion turbines (CTs). Therefore, a governor model is developed in a programmable logic controller (PLC) to investigate the performance of the conventional generator under various dynamic operating conditions and to identify the impact on grid stability in a controlled environment. The governor model aims to enable the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) based emulation of these conventional generation sources using the existing 2 MVA synchronous machine/generator that is driven by a flexible 2.5 MW variable speed drive. This setup will allow us to replicate the dynamic characteristics and response behaviors of NG-driven HRSGs and CTs. The controls for the emulated conventional plants follow the industry standard and are adjustable, ensuring they accurately reflect the operational capabilities and limitations of real-world systems. These controls include load-following capabilities, ramp rates, startup and shutdown sequences, and emissions characteristics. By incorporating these adjustable controls, we aim to capture the nuanced impacts of conventional generation, such as their ability to provide ancillary services like frequency regulation, voltage support, and spinning reserve. In this report, we simulate two types of dynamic operations: grid-connected and islanding. For each dynamic operation, representative starting sequences are tested, including turbine purge, ignition, speed ramping up, generator excitation and synchronizing, and breaker close. The HIL based tests provides insights for field deployment, specifically the high-fidelity governor model provides results to predict the potential stability and reliability risk and suggest possible integration measures (e.g., generation and load balancing, tuning of governor control parameters). Ultimately, this enhanced emulation capability will be integrated into our Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), enabling us to conduct comprehensive studies on the interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources. By better understanding these interactions, we can develop strategies to optimize the overall performance and reliability of the grid. This will support the deployment of advanced grid management techniques, such as demand response, grid-forming inverters, and energy storage systems. The main contributions are summarized as follows: (1) This report introduces a PLC-based governor model for gas turbines. This model accurately simulates the dynamic behavior of conventional generation sources under various operational scenarios; (2) The model is integrated with an HIL testbed that includes a 2.5 MW variable speed drive and a 2 MVA synchronous machine. This setup enables realistic, real-time emulation of conventional power plants, particularly NG driven HRSGs and CTs; (3) The developed model is adaptable to various gas turbine configurations and allows for precise control over parameters such as MW ramp rates. This flexibility makes it a valuable tool for future research and industry collaboration; and (4) By incorporating the model into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems, the report lays the groundwork for future studies on interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources, enhancing the ability to develop advanced grid management strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Utility-Scale Shared Energy Storage Deployment: Challenges, Research Gaps, and Opportunities

Although community energy storage (CES) and behind-the-meter (BTM) energy storage systems have been widely used to offer homeowners and communities a variety of localized benefits, their scalability and grid support functionalities are limited. On the other hand, utility-scale shared energy storage (USES) systems may offer a number of benefits for grid integration, scalability, and economic viability. When compared to BTM and CES alternatives, these large-scale systems provide more storage capacity, more efficient operations, and more economically viable options. The deployment of USES presents opportunities for optimizing grid performance, integrating renewable energy resources, and improving energy security at the community level. However, significant research gaps exist in optimizing the integration and operation of these systems, especially to allocate energy for consumer use, grid services, and enhancing energy resilience. This paper reviews the literature in this regard, focusing on the opportunities, research gaps, and challenges associated with USES deployment. Firstly, the paper provides an overview of USES systems and emphasizes their benefits. Secondly, the key challenges are identified, and research gaps associated with the operation and integration of these systems are highlighted. Lastly, some potential solutions and opportunities that can be adopted to facilitate the rapid deployment and management of USES are presented. Technological, economic, regulatory, and environmental aspects are also discussed in this paper, providing an overview of the current state and future prospects of this technology.

Gautam, Mukesh [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)] (ORCID:

LLGOMAX: Enhancing Industry-Standard Tools for AC Optimal Unit Commitment (CRADA Final Report)

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC ("LLNS"), as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ("LLNL") and ECCO International Inc. ("Participant"). The team designed and implemented a new approach for the Security-Constrained Alternating-Current Unit Commitment (SCACUC) problem. The SCACUC problem is a mathematical optimization problem that decides which generating units should be online and how much power should be produced (and consumed) at each point of the power grid. The decisions are made so as to minimize the total cost of supplying electricity while respecting technical constraints of the power grid, both under normal and emergency conditions. The team developed a solution for SCACUC as specified in the ARPA-E Grid Optimization Competition (GOC) Challenge 3, which put forth a forward-looking version of the problem, which many features not present in today’s electricity market specifications for SCACUC.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Co-Simulation Meets AI: MCP-Driven Power System Analysis

GridGPT, a fine-tuned Generative AI model is designed for on-premise use in grid control rooms. This presentation will demonstrate how eGridGPT can seamlessly integrate with control room solutions to offer operators, engineers, and corporate users enhanced guidance and decision support. It is to show how this innovative AI solution can improve state estimation, boost variable energy forecasting, and optimize grid operations. By leveraging eGridGPT's unique features, audience will learn to unlock new levels of automation, predictive analytics, and reliability within their power systems, ultimately leading to reduced downtime and improved operational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

1.1 eV GaInAs Cell Development for Dual-Use Solar and 1070 nm Laser Power Converters

Dual-use power converter cells can receive solar and laser power simultaneously to generate current, an application relevant to space and terrestrial industries. This study investigates two concepts of solar cells optimized for dual-use 1070 nm laser and solar power conversion, a single-junction and triple-junction cell. Because it is bandgap-tuned for a 1070 nm laser, the 1.1 eV junction is incorporated into each of the two designs, making its development key to the success of both concepts. Efficiency data for a one junction GaInAs cell demonstrates a laser conversion efficiency of 38% at 1070nm wavelength without an anti-reflection coating. However, the single-junction device requires optimization to reduce short wavelength absorption of the broad solar spectrum. In both devices, the graded buffer layers in the GaInAs cell affects the cell's performance by reducing threading dislocations in the active junction. However, the buffer in the three-junction device also acts as a lateral transport layer and so affects the fill factor depending on its sheet resistance. By varying the buffer thickness, we demonstrate a direct relationship between buffer thickness and sheet resistance reduction, while considering implications to open-circuit voltages. We also performed resistance modeling to determine the optimal grid spacing and thickness of the grid fingers to minimize losses due to sheet resistance and grid shading.

junctions

Digital Twin + AI: Control Room of the Future

A digital twin enhances power grid control room operations by providing real-time monitoring, predictive insights, simulation capabilities, remote control, training opportunities, data integration, and decision support. This technology empowers control room operators to effectively manage the grid, optimize performance, and ensure reliable and efficient energy distribution.

control room of the future

Generative AI for Power Grid Operations

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has captured into the mainstream, demonstrating capabilities that once belonged solely to the realm of human cognition. From defeating world champions in complex games to generating human-quality text and images, Generative AI has proven its potential to revolutionize countless industries. The electric power grid is no exception. Generative AI's ability to process vast amounts of data rapidly, assist decision support and identify patterns could significantly enhance power grid operations. For example, Generative AI could improve state estimation where measurements are not available or integrate renewable energy sources more efficiently with probabilistic forecasting. The key contributions of this whitepaper are outlined below: (1) Comprehensive overview of Generative AI's applications in power grid operations: It highlights the opportunities in areas such as forecasting, state estimation, and demonstrating the potential for enhancing efficiency, reliability, and resilience. (2) Expanding Generative AI's impact through synergies with emerging technologies: The paper introduce NREL developed eGridGPT and explores how AI orchestration, multi-agent systems, and Digital Twins can collaborate to optimize grid operations, addressing the complexities of a decarbonized and electrified future. (3) In-depth analysis of challenges in implementing Generative AI: This includes considerations like data availability and quality, model validation, certification, and ethical concerns, ensuring responsible AI deployment. (4) Emphasizing human-AI collaboration: The whitepaper underscores the importance of trustworthy, transparency, and explainability in AI systems to promote seamless interaction between human operators and AI, ultimately improving decision-making. (5) Exploring future research and development: It identifies critical areas for further advancement to fully realize Generative AI's potential in power grid operations. This whitepaper serves as a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers looking to harness Generative AI for a more reliable, stable, and cost-effective power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Occupant-driven end use load models for demand response and flexibility service participation of residential grid-interactive buildings

As demand response becomes increasingly used as a tool to support improved grid flexibility, it is important to consider that there are many potential types of energy end uses that may be used to support such flexibility. Residential appliances, often accounting for 30 % or more of residential energy use, are a currently untapped source of demand flexibility, particularly when aggregated together across homes. To date there has been very limited analysis of residential appliances for use as grid-interactive loads. As such, this research uses disaggregated energy end use data for 564 households, to model the electricity demand flexibility potential of the use of residential dishwashers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, ovens, and ranges (oven + stovetop) on both weekdays and weekends. This includes both at the building level, as well as aggregated to the grid level, specifically the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. This study was divided into two parts. Part 1 focuses on determining appliance-level loads, and Part 2, which involves aggregation to the grid. Findings suggest that among the studied appliances, clothes dryers provide the greatest demand reduction potential for most times of the day, followed by dishwashers and clothes washers. The maximum potential reduction for clothes dryers is found to be approximately at 11:00 a.m. and this potential sustains throughout most of the daytime period. When considering the willingness of households to participate, based on a survey of households in the Midwest region, clothes dryers still have the most potential for demand reduction. The availability of appliances for load modulation on weekdays and weekends indicates similar load reduction potential for all appliances. Overall, the results of this study suggest that there is an opportunity for shifting appliance usage to optimize grid efficiency and enhance demand response strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Regression Analysis with the Directed Infusion of Data

Integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning tools into industry necessitates large-scale collaborative efforts that ensure the robust and accurate execution of downstream analytics such as time series prediction, uncertainty quantification, grid optimization, and condition monitoring. However, concerns related to data privacy pervade the nuclear industry due to the proprietary nature of its data and the possibility of data leakage. Legacy techniques such as encryption often require the explicit transmission of data to trustworthy parties, thereby inviting data leakage concerns. The ideal collaboration scenario avoids the explicit dissemination of data/code while maintaining experimental fidelity, which is currently accomplished using various techniques such as trusted execution environments, homomorphic encryption, differential privacy, and multimatrix masking. These techniques, however, often necessitate a trade-off between trust, efficiency, and utility. This article extends a previously proposed technique called the directed infusion of data (DIOD) that ensures data privacy, allows for scalable obfuscation, and combats the risk of data leakage without compromising utility. The experiments discussed in this article examine a regression-type scenario using DIOD with the goal of preserving the inferential link between two variables. Using the point-kinetics equations, regression experiments compare the performance of a model trained using the original data to that of a model trained using the obfuscated data, which produced identical results. Our claim is further strengthened by an information theoretic proof and experiment, which showed that the inferential content between variables remains the same after obfuscation, thereby avoiding the required communication of the proprietary data.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION

1.1 eV GaInAs Cell Development for Dual-Use Solar and 1070 nm Laser Power Converters

Dual-use photovoltaic cells can receive solar and laser power simultaneously to generate current, an application relevant to space and terrestrial industries. This study investigates two concepts of solar cells optimized for dual-use 1070 nm laser and solar power conversion, a single-junction and triple-junction cell. The cell designs are based upon the 3- junction inverted metamorphic solar cell, previously shown highly efficient for solar conversion. Because it is closely bandgap-tuned for a 1070 nm laser, the 1 eV bottom junction is incorporated into each of the two designs, making its development key to the success of both concepts. However, each design requires some modification for efficient dual use. The single-junction device requires optimization to reduce short wavelength absorption of the broad solar spectrum. In both devices, the graded buffer layers in the GaInAs cell affect the cell's performance by reducing threading dislocations in the active junction. However, the buffer in the three-junction device also acts as a lateral transport layer and so affects the fill factor depending on its sheet resistance. By varying the buffer thickness, we demonstrate a direct relationship between buffer thickness and sheet resistance reduction, while considering implications to open-circuit voltages. We also performed resistance modeling to determine the optimal grid spacing and thickness of the grid fingers to minimize losses due to sheet resistance and grid shading. Efficiency data for a one junction GaInAs cell demonstrates a laser conversion efficiency of 38% at 1070 nm wavelength without an anti-reflection coating.

dual-use

Computational Algorithms for Unit Commitment with AC Power Flows (Final Report)

Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) is a key component in power system operations. When AC power flow constraints are considered in the SCUC model (AC-SCUC), the problem becomes extremely difficult due to its discrete and non-convex nature, as described in “Grid Optimization Competition Challenge 3 Problem Formulation (GOCC)”. There are four main challenges: (i) Discrete decisions regarding unit online/offline status and start-up/shut-down procedures for every single unit. The number of discrete decision variables increases considerably when a system integrates multiple generators; (ii) Configuration-based combined-cycle formulations, and multi-commodity models that include ramping products, spin/non-spin products, and regulation up/down products. The combined-cycle units introduce additional discrete decision variables and auxiliary service products further complicate the model by connecting multi-commodity products’ continuous and discrete variables; (iii) SCUC models with AC power flow constraints are far more complex due to massive bilinear terms in the large-scale nonlinear power balance equations. The nonlinear power balance equations are further complicated by the discrete step control variables of shunts; (iv) N − 1 contingency analysis. The size of the model increases linearly with the number of contingencies considered, greatly increasing the size of the optimization model. Accordingly, there is an emergent need to develop a robust algorithm capable of deriving a high-quality solution in a short time and passing through contingency tests simultaneously. In this project, we explore innovative techniques to address this challenging problem by integrating advanced polyhedral theory, approximation methods, relaxation strategies, decomposition techniques, and parallel computing. Each technique approaches the problem from a different perspective, leveraging its specific strengths to tackle distinct challenges. Each individual method has demonstrated its effectiveness in the PI’s previous research. Their integration is expected to significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the proposed complex problem. Successful completion of this project has the potential to transform the industry by enhancing optimization solvers capable of handling large-scale day-ahead energy market clearing models within strict time constraints, while incorporating AC power flow constraints. This advancement will lead to reduced overall generation costs and, consequently, increased social welfare.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Addressing Rising Energy Demand Through Innovation

The U.S. is facing a significant increase in energy demand, driven by AI advancements, the rapid expansion of data centers, manufacturing and industrial growth, and the electrification of transportation and buildings. Buildings alone account for approximately 75% of U.S. electricity consumption and 40% of total energy use. To address these challenges, NLR leverages its state-of-the-art research facilities, advanced energy modeling, hardware-in-the-loop emulation, and real-world demonstrations to provide data-driven insights that de-risk emerging energy solutions, increase efficiency and demand flexibility, optimize grid controls, and identify vulnerabilities to enhance energy security. This presentation will highlight our research ecosystem and its role in supporting a more reliable, affordable, and adaptive energy infrastructure in the face of accelerating demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Learning from Arctic Microgrids: Cost and Resiliency Projections for Renewable Energy Expansion with Hydrogen and Battery Storage

Electricity in rural Alaska is provided by more than 200 standalone microgrid systems powered predominantly by diesel generators. Incorporating renewable energy generation and storage to these systems can reduce their reliance on costly imported fuel and improve sustainability; however, uncertainty remains about optimal grid architectures to minimize cost, including how and when to incorporate long-duration energy storage. This study implements a novel, multi-pronged approach to assess the techno-economic feasibility of future energy pathways in the community of Kotzebue, which has already successfully deployed solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. Using real community load, resource, and generation data, we develop a series of comparison models using the HOMER Pro software tool to evaluate microgrid architectures to meet over 90% of the annual community electricity demand with renewable generation, considering both battery and hydrogen energy storage. We find that near-term planned capacity expansions in the community could enable over 50% renewable generation and reduce the total cost of energy. Additional build-outs to reach 75% renewable generation are shown to be competitive with current costs, but further capacity expansion is not currently economical. We additionally include a cost sensitivity analysis and a storage capacity sizing assessment that suggest hydrogen storage may be economically viable if battery costs increase, but large-scale seasonal storage via hydrogen is currently unlikely to be cost-effective nor practical for the region considered. While these findings are based on data and community priorities in Kotzebue, we expect this approach to be relevant to many communities in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions working to improve energy reliability, sustainability, and security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

1.1 eV GaInAs Cell Development for Dual-Use Solar and 1075 nm Laser Power Converters

Dual-use power converter cells can receive solar and laser power simultaneously to generate current, an application relevant to space and terrestrial industries. This study investigates two concepts of solar cells optimized for dual- use 1070 nm laser and solar power conversion, a single-junction and triple-junction cell. Because it is bandgap-tuned for a 1070 nm laser, the 1.1 eV junction is incorporated into each of the two designs, making its development key to the success of both concepts. Efficiency data for a one junction GaInAs cell demonstrates a laser conversion efficiency of 38% at 1070nm wavelength without an anti-reflection coating. However, the single-junction device requires optimization to reduce short wavelength absorption of the broad solar spectrum. In both devices, the graded buffer layers in the GaInAs cell affects the cell's performance by reducing threading dislocations in the active junction. However, the buffer in the three-junction device also acts as a lateral transport layer and so affects the fill factor depending on its sheet resistance. By varying the buffer thickness, we demonstrate a direct relationship between buffer thickness and sheet resistance reduction, while considering implications to open-circuit voltages. We also performed resistance modeling to determine the optimal grid spacing and thickness of the grid fingers to minimize losses due to sheet resistance and grid shading.

dual-use