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At least 37 records · Page 2

Regional-Scale 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of M w 7 Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, Northern California Resolving Frequencies 0–10 Hz and Including Site-Response Corrections

Large earthquake ground-motion simulations in 3D Earth models provide constraints on site-specific shaking intensities but have suffered from limited frequency resolution and ignored site response in soft soils. In this work we report new regional-scale 3D simulations for moment magnitude 7.0 scenario earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, northern California with SW4. Simulations resolved significantly broader band frequencies (0–10 Hz) than previous studies and represent the highest resolution simulations for any such earthquake to date. Seismic waves were excited by a kinematic rupture following Graves and Pitarka (2016) and obeyed wave propagation in a 3D Earth model with topography from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assuming a minimum shear wavespeed, VSmin, of 500 m/s. We corrected motions for linear and nonlinear site response for the shear wavespeed, VS, from the USGS 3D model, using a recently developed ground-motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra . At soft soil locations subjected to strong shaking, the site-corrected intensities reflect the competing effects of linear amplification by low V S material, reduction of stiffness during nonlinear deformation, and damping of high frequencies. Sites with near-surface V S of 500 m/s or greater require no linear site correction but can experience amplitude reduction due to nonlinear response. Averaged over all sites, we obtained reasonable agreement with empirical ergodic median GMMs currently used for seismic hazard and design ground motions (epsilon less than 1), with marked improvement at soft sedimentary sites. At specific locations, the simulated shaking intensities show systematic differences from the GMMs that reveal path and site effects not captured in these ergodic models. Results suggest how next generation regional-scale earthquake simulations can provide higher spatial and frequency resolution while including effects of soft soils that are commonly ignored in scenario earthquake ground-motion simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Anti-Emetic Properties of 1-Sulpiride in a Ground-Based Model of Space Motion Sickness

L-sulpiride, at a dose of 4 mg/kg, essentially abolished motion- induced emesis in a group of 6 squirrel monkeys undergoing horizontal rotation at 25 rpm, a terrestrial model of space motion sickness (SMS). Extrapyramidal side effects were not observed. In the absence of the drug, the usual emetic response returned. In comparison while typical neuroleptics were also strongly anti-emetic, they produced a considerable degree of rigidity and akinesia.

Miller, Joseph D.↗

Time domain probabilistic seismic risk analysis using ground motion prediction equations of Fourier amplitude spectra

Modeling of Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) of seismic motions has gained much attention in engineering seismology. In the past few years, several ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and inter-frequency correlation structure of FAS have been established. Due to many preferable characteristics of FAS, probabilistic seismic hazard/risk analysis is rapidly changing from ergodic, spectrum acceleration Sa(T 0 )-based approach to non-ergodic, site-specific, FAS-based approach. This paper presents time domain intrusive framework for probabilistic seismic risk analysis using GMPE of FAS. Herein, methodology for time domain stochastic ground motion modeling based on GMPEs of FAS is presented in some detail. The simulated uncertain motions are modeled as a random process and represented by polynomial chaos Karhunen-Loève expansion. The random process excitations are further propagated into the uncertain structural system using Galerkin stochastic finite element method (SFEM). Probabilistic evolution of structural response is solved, and such solution is used to develop seismic risk for any damage state. The presented framework is illustrated through seismic risk analysis of a four-story building subjected to possible earthquakes from two strike slip faults. The influences of the epistemic uncertainties in source stress drop Δσ and site attenuation κ0 on seismic risk are investigated. The need for non-ergodic seismic risk analysis with source-specific and site specific characterizations is emphasized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Scaling and Units of the Elastic Response Term for Rayleigh Waves that is Output by Computer Programs in Seismology (CPS)

We report on the scaling and units of the Rayleigh wave elastic response function A R (ω) that is output from the widely used Computer Programs in Seismology (CPS) to aid in the modeling of ground motion sourced by atmospheric explosions. The program uses mixed units (km, second, km/s, gm/cc) to keep A R (ω) near 10 0 and prevent any numerical underflow or overflow. We compare two models for the response of an elastic half space to the output from CPS. Our application inputs the recommended, mixed unit geological models to determine how researchers must scale this output to obtain physical units for A R (ω) that represents the amplitude scaling for the minimum group velocity (Airy phase) contribution to Rayleigh waves. We determine that a CPS user must scale the output for A R (ω) by 10 -12 (m/km) 2 (g/cc/m 3 /kg) to obtain MKS (meter, kg, second) units and then must multiply this result by the vertical component eigenfunction squared, that is evaluated at the free surface.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Overview of the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study Using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. Here, in this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geodetic Strain Analysis Tool

A geodetic software analysis tool enables the user to analyze 2D crustal strain from geodetic ground motion, and create models of crustal deformation using a graphical interface. Users can use any geodetic measurements of ground motion and derive the 2D crustal strain interactively. This software also provides a forward-modeling tool that calculates a geodetic velocity and strain field for a given fault model, and lets the user compare the modeled strain field with the strain field obtained from the user s data. Users may change parameters on-the-fly and obtain a real-time recalculation of the resulting strain field. Four data products are computed: maximum shear, dilatation, shear angle, and principal components. The current view and data dependencies are processed first. The remaining data products and views are then computed in a round-robin fashion to anticipate view changes. When an analysis or display parameter is changed, the affected data products and views are invalidated and progressively re-displayed as available. This software is designed to facilitate the derivation of the strain fields from the GPS and strain meter data that sample it to facilitate the understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the strain field derivation from continuous GPS (CGPS) and other geodetic data from a variety of tectonic settings, to converge on the "best practices" strain derivation strategy for the Solid Earth Science ESDR System (SESES) project given the CGPS station distribution in the western U.S., and to provide SESES users with a scientific and educational tool to explore the strain field on their own with user-defined parameters.

Kedar, Sharon↗

Demonstration of Repeat-Pass POLINSAR Using UAVSAR: The RMOG Model

In this paper we show our first POLINSAR results using the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). UAVSAR is a L-band repeat-pass polarimetric and interferometric system designed for measuring vegetation structure and monitoring crustal deformations. In order to extract canopy height from POLINSAR data and account for temporal decorrelation, we formulate a physical model of the temporal-volumetric coherence, random motion over ground (RMOG) model. Canopy height extracted from single-baseline UAVSAR data using the RMOG model is shown to be in agreement with canopy height measured by the Land, Vegetation, and Ice Sensor (LVIS) lidar.

polarimetry↗

Seismoacoustic analysis of underground explosions using the Rayleigh integral

SUMMARY A coupled seismoacoustic model is developed for the analysis of acoustic signals produced by underground explosive events with an aim to develop a means of improving estimated depth and yield for explosion monitoring. A ground spall model is used to predict surface motion characteristics produced by an underground explosion and the Rayleigh integral is applied to relate the surface motion to the acoustic signal some distance from surface ground zero. The low-frequency component of the ground motion associated with the prolonged free fall of lofted material during spall is found to dominate the acoustic signal propagating away from surface ground zero at shallow angles. The model is applied to observed ground motion and acoustic signals recorded during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) with promising results. In addition to accurately predicting characteristics of the observed acoustic signals from several of the SPE events, the model provides a means of explaining the lack of signals observed during several events in the SPE due to the directionality of the higher frequency acoustic signals associated with the uplift and closure components as well as the lack of a spatially localized, longer duration dwell.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Recent Improvements and Verification of A Full Body Model in Opensim

BACKGROUND: The dynamic feasibility [1,2] criterion, that the subject’s Center of Pressure (COP) be located within the Base of Support (BOS) which outlines the feet, has aided in assessing the stability of human motion recorded on earth while performing the recorded tasks in lunar gravity or as countermeasures exercises on a vibration isolation and stabilization system in microgravity. The convex hull of the BOS on the platform under the subject’s feet was estimated using virtual markers on the feet of the scaled subject model. The COP was calculated using the ground reaction forces and moments determined from motion capture data with biomechanical modeling tools [3]. Occasionally, large-amplitude oscillatory spikes or “artifacts” were observed in the subject’s linear and angular momentum derivatives, affecting some COP data derived from motion capture. The purpose of this investigation was to assess and improve the accuracy of model scaling and BOS estimation as well as to determine the efficacy of model adjustments in mitigating artifacts influencing motion capture-derived ground reaction force and COP results. METHODS: To aid evaluation of proposed process and model updates, motion capture data were collected for two subjects during unit test and range of motion trials, lunar tasks, and countermeasures exercise motions. Markers were added to the full body Plug-in Gait marker set [4] during data collection. New markers were placed on the front, back, sides, and top of the head to improve scaling using distances between marker pairs. Medial elbow markers were added to stabilize the upper arm during OpenSim Inverse Kinematics (IK) [5]. Finally, markers were added on the outer edge of the heels and on the outside edges of the first and last toes on each foot. These additional foot markers were made available to test new automated foot scaling techniques and to calculate the error between the subject’s estimated and recorded BOS. The modified unscaled OpenSim Full Body Rajagopal Model [6,7] was adjusted using some previously investigated techniques [8] to mitigate rapid shifts in joint angles occurring during IK, as these were found to cause the spike artifacts observed in subsequent stages of analysis. Since OpenSim models use Euler angles and rotation sequences, the arm axes of rotation were adjusted, and the pelvis order of rotation was changed to minimize the likelihood of encountering “gimbal lock” during common human motion. The model clavicle, arm, elbow, wrist, pelvis, and ankle angle limits were adjusted to better accommodate the full human range of motion seen in exercise and lunar data. The shoulder joint center was calculated using a “pivoting” algorithm [9], and both shoulder joint center and upper arm markers were included during IK to provide additional shoulder stability on a case-by-case basis. The quality of IK results was assessed by three criteria: minimizing error between recorded motion capture markers and model markers, checking for reasonable rates of change in joint angles between fames (i.e., no IK artifacts), and ensuring the absence of spikes in the inertial forces and angular momentum derivatives calculated using a custom OpenSim plugin [10]. RESULTS: The additional markers placed on the subject during data collection allowed the head and feet to be scaled more accurately using distances between new marker pairs. Scaling with BOS markers placed on the subject and removing the limit on subtalar angle resulted in more accurate BOS determination. Unrealistically large changes in joint angles between frames could be reduced by including clavicle, sternum, and medial elbow markers during IK. In cases with large arm ranges of motion, results could be further improved by running IK using medial elbow and virtual shoulder joint center markers. Model adjustments significantly improved the IK results affecting COP calculation and increased the accuracy of BOS estimation.

C A Bell↗

Estimating epistemic uncertainty in soil parameters for nonlinear site response analyses: Introducing the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique

This study quantifies the effects of epistemic uncertainty in soil parameters on nonlinear (NL) site response analysis (SRA) results, validated against the data recorded at a well-instrumented geotechnical downhole array located in Japan. To this end, a one-dimensional soil column model of the Service Hall Array (SHA) near the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP) is developed using the finite element (FE) program LS-DYNA. The dynamic stress–strain relationship is characterized by a modified two-stage hyperbolic (MTH) NL backbone curve formulation capable of capturing soil behavior at both small- and large-shear strains. The model is then validated against the ground motion recordings to capture the model bias. The uncertainties associated with the shear-wave velocity profile (a small-strain soil property) and soil shear strength (a large-strain soil property) are incorporated in NL SRA to quantify their separate and joint randomization effects on the results. This study proposes using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method as an efficient alternative to commonly used methods, such as Standard Monte Carlo (SMC), to account for uncertainty propagation in such reliability analysis. Both low-intensity and design-level records from the recordings at the SHA are applied to study the contribution of the small- and large-strain NL dynamic soil properties. Results from 46,200 NL FE analyses (23,100 per input motion) are presented. Measured and predicted site response, using recorded ground motions at this downhole array, is compared to assess the significance of soil parameter uncertainty on the observed ground motion dispersions. It is demonstrated that increasing the number of soft realizations and implementing higher level earthquake intensity lead to higher ground motion dispersion. Unlike past studies in randomization of Vs profiles with the SMC method, the LHS method is shown to have no significant effect on the predicted median surface response spectra and amplification factors (AFs) for this case study.

Engineering↗

Free-field Ground Motion Induced by Underground Explosions at Aqueduct Mesa with Predictions for Physical Experiment One (PE1)

We fit standard power-law models for ground acceleration and particle velocity using scaled ground motion observations from underground nuclear explosions at Aqueduct Mesa on the Nevada National Security Site. The models are then validated using small-scale high-explosive (HE) test data from nearby Rainier Mesa. The comparison between model predictions and observations is good and can be made more favorable if the assumed yield for the HE tests are doubled. Further validation is made with a numerical experiment that additionally shows a transition in ground motion attenuation to elastic propagation (1 = r). An extended model is provided to incorporate the long-range transition in attenuation, which results in increased ground motions at farther range. We then make predictions for the field experiment, Physical Experiment One (PE1), to take place in P-tunnel on Aqueduct Mesa, and suggest that the models could be used in planning various operations for PE1.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Extracting Tree Height from Repeat-Pass PolInSAR Data : Experiments with JPL and ESA Airborne Systems

In this paper we present our latest developments and experiments with the random-motion-over-ground (RMoG) model used to extract canopy height and other important forest parameters from repeat-pass polarimetricinterferometric SAR (Pol-InSAR) data. More specifically, we summarize the key features of the RMoG model in contrast with the random-volume-over-ground (RVoG) model, describe in detail a possible inversion scheme for the RMoG model and illustrate the results of the RMoG inversion using airborne data collected by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the European Space Agency (ESA).

Pol-InSAR↗

Real-Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR-GNSS and Deep Learning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real-time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR-GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine-Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M-LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M-LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real-time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Performance-based earthquake early warning for tall buildings

The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system aims to issue an advance warning to residents on the West Coast of the United States seconds before the ground shaking arrives, if the expected ground shaking exceeds a certain threshold. However, residents in tall buildings may experience much greater motion due to the dynamic response of the buildings. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to extend ShakeAlert to include the contribution of building response to provide a more accurate estimation of the expected shaking intensity for tall buildings. Currently, the supposedly ideal solution of analyzing detailed finite element models of buildings under predicted ground-motion time histories is not theoretically or practically feasible. The authors have recently investigated existing simple methods to estimate peak floor acceleration (PFA) and determined these simple formulas are not practically suitable. Instead, this article explores another approach by extending the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) to EEW, considering that every component involved in building response prediction is uncertain in the EEW scenario. Additionally, while this idea is not new and has been proposed by other researchers, it has two shortcomings: (1) the simple beam model used for response prediction is prone to modeling uncertainty, which has not been quantified, and (2) the ground motions used for probabilistic demand models are not suitable for EEW applications. In this article, we address these two issues by incorporating modeling errors into the parameters of the beam model and using a new set of ground motions, respectively. We demonstrate how this approach could practically work using data from a 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles. Using the criteria and thresholds employed by previous researchers, we show that if peak ground acceleration (PGA) is accurately estimated, this approach can predict the expected level of human comfort in tall buildings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Engineering evaluation of the EQSIM simulated ground-motion database: The San Francisco Bay Area region

Ground-motion simulations for infrequent earthquake scenarios are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform performance-based structural design and assessment, particularly in regions where major earthquakes are expected, but recordings from consistent historical events are not available. However, the absence of empirical data makes the evaluation of such scenarios and the interpretation of the simulation results very challenging. In this context, this paper presents the evaluation of the first EQSIM (v.1.1.0) ground-motion simulations generated for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) region. The current database, which is at the first stages of development, includes eight realizations of a Hayward Fault M w 7 event. The evaluation of the simulated motions is first conducted on the average ground-motion amplitudes through comparison against the NGA-W2 GMPEs and a selected population of real records. A methodology for selecting a population of real records consistent with the simulated event is proposed. The objective of the proposed evaluation is twofold: (1) build confidence in the realistic character of the simulated motions for their use in engineering applications and (2) offer a critical physics-based interpretation of the simulation results that can help improve key features of the simulation models. To further investigate the implications of using the simulated ground motions for site-specific structural assessments, the ASCE7-16 approach is employed for the analysis of two hazard-consistent near-field sites in the SFBA. Results are discussed. Furthermore, this study offers a critical review of the EQSIM (v.1.1.0) SFBA ground-motion simulations and suggestions for improving the earthquake rupture models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Reducing Frequency Bias of Fourier Neural Operators in 3D Seismic Wavefield Simulations Through Multistage Training

The recent development of neural operator (NeurOp) learning for solutions to the elastic wave equation shows promising results and provides the basis for fast large-scale simulations for different seismological applications. In this article, we use the Fourier neural operator (FNO) model to directly solve the 3D Helmholtz wave equation for fast seismic ground-motion simulations on different frequencies and show the frequency bias of the FNO model, that is, it learns the lower frequencies better comparing to the higher frequencies. To reduce the frequency bias, we adopt the multistage FNO training, that is, after training a stage 1 FNO model for estimating the ground motion, we use a second FNO model as the stage 2 to learn from the residual, which greatly reduced the errors on the higher frequencies. By adopting this multistage training, the FNO models show reduced biases on higher frequencies, which enhanced the overall results of the ground-motion simulations. Thus the multistage training FNO improves the accuracy and realism of the ground-motion simulations.

earthquakes↗

Structural modeling and dynamic analysis of condensate storage tanks in nuclear power plants

Condensate storage tanks (CSTs) in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are classified as critical equipment capable of surviving strong shaking in a design basis earthquake to assure the ability to subsequently provide cooling water. Structural modeling and dynamic analysis of CSTs are complicated due to fluid-structure interaction (FSI) and coupling issues, which could have significant effects on seismic response. The capability of a number of approximate models to capture seismic response is investigated using dynamic analysis results from detailed finite element models. Modal analyses and time history analyses are carried out using both 2D and 3D models to predict the dynamic behavior of CSTs as a function of ground motion intensity. Although 2D simplified models can be used to quickly evaluate the dynamic response of CSTs when there is substantial margin to failure, a detailed 3D model is required when it is necessary to examine a limit state associated with the failure mode of the tank. The findings show good agreement between the natural frequencies of convective modes determined from the 2D and 3D CST models. The difference between the frequencies of impulsive modes were found to be equal to or less than 25%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗