A study for the application of remote sensing data to land use planning on the Mississippi Gulf Coast
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Ingels, F. M.↗
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Land Surface Data Assimilation and the Gulf Coast Sea-Breeze
A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts simulations of near-surface meteorology on the 4- to 48-hour time scale. The technique is implemented within the PSU/NCAR MM5 V34 and applied on a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest centered over Oklahoma. Two Friday periods during 2000 were selected for study, one during the warm season (May-June) and the other in the cold season (Nov-Dec). Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and dewpoint show that the assimilation technique can improve numerical simulations on both regional and continental scales. Comparison of the simulated surface energy and water fluxes with observations from Energy Balance Bowen Ratio measurements taken at CART/ARM sites in the Southern Great Plains showed the assimilation technique produces a realistic argument of the Bowen ratio in both seasons. Additional runs with the Oregon State University land surface scheme as implemented within MM5 will be made and comparisons with assimilation results will be presented at the meeting.
Lapenta, William M.↗
Assessing Hurricane Katrina Damage to the Mississippi Gulf Coast Using IKONOS Imagery
Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 10 a.m. CDT as a category 3 event with storm surges up to approximately 9 m and sustained winds of approximately 120 mph. The hurricane ravaged several coastal towns, destroying or severely damaging hundreds of homes. Hurricand Katrina deposited millions of tons of debris and caused severe damage to coastal forests. In response, several Federal agencies have been using a broad range of remotely sensed data (e.g., IKONOS) to aid damage assessment and disaster recovery efforts. This presentation discusses an effort to use IKONOS data for damage assessment, based on data collected over southwestern coastal Mississippi on September 2, 2005.
Spruce, Joseph P.↗
Influence of Land Cover and Soil Moisture based Brown Ocean Effect on an Extreme Rainfall Event from a Louisiana Gulf Coast Tropical System
Extreme flooding over southern Louisiana in mid-August of 2016 resulted from an unusual tropical low that formed and intensified over land. We used numerical experiments to highlight the role of ‘Brown Ocean’ effect (where saturated soils function similar to a warm ocean surface) on intensification and it’s modulation by land cover change. A numerical modeling experiment that successfully captured the flood event (control) was modified to alter moisture availability by converting wetlands to open water, wet croplands, and dry croplands. Storm evolution in the control experiment with wet antecedent soils most resembles tropical lows that form and intensify over oceans. Irrespective of soil moisture conditions, conversion of wetlands to croplands reduced storm intensity, and also, non-saturated soils reduced rain by 20% and caused shorter durations of high intensity wind conditions. Developing agricultural croplands and more so restoring wetlands and not converting them into open water can impede intensification of tropical systems that affect the area.
Udaysankar S Nair↗
Subtle Land Subsidence Elevates Future Storm Surge Risks Along the Gulf Coast of the United States
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Ke Wang↗
The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for worldwide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast U.S. Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the warm episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode is notable for being the strongest event since 198283. With the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the detailed coverage of the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), such interannual changes in lightning activity can be examined with far greater detail than ever before. For the 1997-98 ENSO event the most significant year-to-year changes in lightning frequency worldwide occurred along the Gulf Coast and within the Gulf of Mexico basin during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Within a broad swath across the northern Gulf of Mexico basin there is a 100-150% increase in lightning days year-to-year (a peak of 33 days in the winter of 1997-98 vs. only 15 days or fewer in both the 1996-97 and 1998-99 winter). In addition, there is a nearly 200% increase in lightning hours (a peak of 138 hours in 1996-97 vs. 50 hours in both 1996-97 and 1998-99). The increase in lightning activity during ENSO occurs in association with a 100% increase in the number of synoptic scale cyclones that developed within or moved through the Gulf basin. The primary variables controlling these enhancements in thunderstorm activity are the position and strength of the jet stream.
Goodman, S. J.↗
Using Remote Sensing Data to Evaluate Habitat Loss in the Mobile, Galveston, and Tampa Bay Watersheds
The Gulf of Mexico has experienced dramatic wetland habitat area losses over the last two centuries. These losses not only damage species diversity, but contribute to water quality, flood control, and aspects of the Gulf coast economy. Overall wetland losses since the 1950s were examined using land cover/land use (LCLU) change analysis in three Gulf coast watershed regions: Mobile Bay, Galveston Bay, and Tampa Bay. Two primary causes of this loss, LCLU change and climate change, were then assessed using LCLU maps, U.S. census population data, and available current and historical climate data from NOAA. Sea level rise, precipitation, and temperature effects were addressed, with emphasis on analysis of the effects of sea level rise on salt marsh degradation. Ecological impacts of wetland loss, including fishery depletion, eutrophication, and hypoxia were addressed using existing literature and data available from NOAA. These ecological consequences in turn have had an affect on the Gulf coast economy, which was analyzed using fishery data and addressing public health impacts of changes in the environment caused by wetland habitat loss. While recent federal and state efforts to reduce wetland habitat loss have been relatively successful, this study implies a need for more aggressive action in the Gulf coast area, as the effects of wetland loss reach far beyond individual wetland systems themselves to the Gulf of Mexico as a whole.
Steffen, Morgan↗
Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States
This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.
MERRA↗
Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise
Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor impacts (also called "nuisance floods") have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal cities. Rates of increase are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. Tidal flooding will continue increasing in depth, frequency, and extent this century. Assuming storm characteristics do not change, sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters. A projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the probability of extreme flooding along most of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast states beyond what would be projected based solely on RSL rise. However, there is low confidence in the projected increase in frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, and the associated flood risk amplification and flood effects could be offset or amplified by such factors as changes in overall storm frequency or tracks.
Sweet, W. V.↗
Solutions Network Formulation Report. The Potential Contribution of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission to the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Project
The 2005 hurricane season - especially Hurricane Katrina - left the Mississippi Gulf Coast devastated. In its efforts to assist in coastal re-building efforts, the U.S. Congress passed the Defense Appropriation Act of 2006. This legislation directed the Secretary of the Army, via the USACE, to generate reports discussing possible projects that would improve the State of Mississippi?s coastal region. These projects are referred to as the MsCIP. Data collected via the LDCM OLI could be used to evaluate the success of projects that result from the MsCIP by monitoring regional coastal changes associated with such projects. This Candidate Solution is in alignment with the Coastal Management, Water Management, and Disaster Management National Applications and will benefit society by improving the post-Hurricane Katrina Mississippi Gulf Coast.
Hilbert, Kent↗
The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the latest warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode, notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83, presents our first opportunity to examine the response to a major ENSO event and determine the variation of wintertime thunderstorm activity in this part of the world. Due to the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), we are able to examine such year-to-year changes in lightning activity with far greater detail than ever before.
Goodman, S. J.↗
The 1997-98 El-Nino Event and Related Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the current warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode, notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83, presents our first opportunity to examine the response to a major ENSO event and determine the variation of wintertime thunderstorm activity in this part of the world. Due to the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), we are able to examine such year-to-year changes in lightning activity with far greater detail than ever before.
Buechler, D. E.↗
The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the latest warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode is notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83. With the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), such year-to-year changes in lightning activity can be examined with far greater detail than ever before. For the recent ENSO event the greatest year-to-year changes in lightning frequency occur within a broad swath across the northern Gulf of Mexico basin where there is nearly a 200% increase in lightning days year-to-year (35 days in 1997-98 vs. 13 days in 1996-97) and a 200% increase in lightning hours (150 hours vs. 50). These changes occur in association with a 100% increase in the number of synoptic scale cyclones and an anomalously strong jet stream encompassing much of the Gulf basin.
Goodman, S. J.↗
Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary
Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.
Estes, M. G.↗
Effects of environmental changes on marsh vegetation with special reference to salinity
A literature survey primarily concerned with brackish and salt marshes located along the eastern coast of North America and the Gulf Coast was presented. The review concentrated upon the vegetation of the marshes, particularly in regard to distribution, composition, succession, and productivity. Special efforts were made to include major works concerned with the Louisiana and Mississipi coastal marshes. It appears that spring to early summer (weeks 18-34 of the year; April - mid-July) is the best period of time to categorize the communities. It is during this time of the year that the communities appear most stable in regard to species composition. This allows a strong correlation to be drawn between the salinity of the region and the dominant species of the community. As such, this would seem to be best period in which to sample the marsh via air or land for differences in vegetation and salinity.
Smalley, A. E.↗
Portable Medical System
Portable Medical Status and Treatment System (PMSTS) is designed for use in remote areas where considerable time may elapse before a patient can be transported to a hospital. First units were delivered to the Department of Transportation last year and tested in two types of medical emergency environments: one in a rural Pennsylvania community and another aboard a U.S. Coast Guard rescue helicopter operating along Florida's Gulf Coast. The system has the capability to transmit vital signs to a distantly located physician, who can perform diagnosis and relay treatment instructions to the attendant at the scene. The battery powered PMSTS includes a vital signs monitor and a defibrillator. Narco has also developed a companion system, called Porta-Fib III designed for use in a hospital environment with modifications accordingly. Both systems are offshoots of an earlier NASA project known as the Physician's Black Bag developed by Telecare, Inc., a company now acquired by NARCO.
Source record↗
Large-scale space use of large juvenile and adult smalltooth sawfish Pristis pectinata: implications for management
The smalltooth sawfish Pristis pectinata is an endangered species endemic to the Atlantic Ocean. The only known viable populations occur in the USA along both coasts of Florida and in the western Bahamas. Little is known about habitat use and movement ecology of large juvenile and adult smalltooth sawfish. Although Critical Habitat — a management designation in the USA — has been identified for small juveniles, it has yet to be identified for these life stages. Between May 2016 and April 2019, we used passive acoustic telemetry and 3 large data sharing networks of receivers to track movements of 43 large juvenile and adult smalltooth sawfish. During this study, 24 females and 19 males were implanted with transmitters with estimated 4 or 10 yr battery lives. These tagged individuals were detected off the southeastern USA on 461 receivers ranging from off the coast of Brunswick, Georgia, to the lower Florida Keys, and along the Gulf coast to Apalachee Bay, Florida. Seasonal migrations were undertaken by 58% (43% mature; 57% immature) of the tagged individuals, with the remainder being apparent residents of their tagging locations. Tagged sawfish from both size classes and of both sexes migrated, which indicates that neither sex nor length is a predictor of whether a sawfish will migrate or not. Although both coasts of Florida were used for migration, most individuals consistently used the same coast when they migrated. The areas surrounding Boca Grande, Cape Canaveral, and the lower Florida Keys were heavily visited sites that could be further evaluated as potential Critical Habitat for these life stages. Understanding the movement patterns of this Critically Endangered species is essential for creating policies to protect areas important for promoting growth of the population.
Pristis pectinata Habitat use · Acoustic monitorin↗
US Tropical Cyclone Activity in the 2030s Based on Projected Changes in Tropical Sea-Surface Temperature
We use a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) model, the North Atlantic Stochastic Hurricane Model (NASHM), in combination with sea-surface temperature (SST) projections from climate models, to estimate regional changes in US TC activity into the 2030s. NASHM is trained on historical variations in TC characteristics with two SST indices: global-tropical mean SST and the difference between tropical North-Atlantic (NA) SST and the rest of the global tropics, often referred to as “relative SST.” Testing confirms the model’s ability to reproduce historical US TC activity, as well as to make skillful predictions. When NASHM is driven by SST projections into the 2030s, overall NA annual TC counts increase, and the fractional increase is the greatest at the highest wind intensities. However, an eastward anomaly in mean TC tracks and an eastward shift in TC formation region result in a geographically-varied signal in US coastal activity. Florida’s Gulf coast is projected to see significant increases in TC activity, compared to the long-term historical mean, and these increases are fractionally greatest at the highest intensities. By contrast, the northwestern US Gulf and the US East Coast will see little change.
tropical cyclone (TC) model↗