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Secondary impact hazard assessment

A series of light gas gun shots (4 to 7 km/sec) were performed with 5 mg nylon and aluminum projectiles to determine the size, mass, velocity, and spatial distribution of spall and ejecta from a number of graphite/epoxy targets. Similar determinations were also performed on a few aluminum targets. Target thickness and material were chosen to be representative of proposed Space Station structure. The data from these shots and other information were used to predict the hazard to Space Station elements from secondary particles resulting from impacts of micrometeoroids and orbital debris on the Space Station. This hazard was quantified as an additional flux over and above the primary micrometeoroid and orbital debris flux that must be considered in the design process. In order to simplify the calculations, eject and spall mass were assumed to scale directly with the energy of the projectile. Other scaling systems may be closer to reality. The secondary particles considered are only those particles that may impact other structure immediately after the primary impact. The addition to the orbital debris problem from these primary impacts was not addressed. Data from this study should be fed into the orbital debris model to see if Space Station secondaries make a significant contribution to orbital debris. The hazard to a Space Station element from secondary particles above and beyond the micrometeoroid and orbital debris hazard is categorized in terms of two factors: (1) the 'view factor' of the element to other Space Station structure or the geometry of placement of the element, and (2) the sensitivity to damage, stated in terms of energy. Several example cases were chosen, the Space Station module windows, windows of a Shuttle docked to the Space Station, the habitat module walls, and the photovoltaic solar cell arrays. For the examples chosen the secondary flux contributed no more than 10 percent to the total flux (primary and secondary) above a given calculated critical energy. A key assumption in these calculations is that above a certain critical energy, significant damage will be done. This is not true for all structures. Double-walled, bumpered structures are an example for which damage may be reduced as energy goes up. The critical energy assumption is probably conservative, however, in terms of secondary damage. To understand why the secondary impacts seem to, in general, contribute less than 10 percent of the flux above a given critical energy, consider the case of a meteoroid impact of a given energy on a fixed, large surface. This impact results in a variety of secondary particles, all of which have much less energy than the original impact. Conservation of energy prohibits any other situation. Thus if damage is linked to a critical energy of a particle, the primary flux will always deliver particles of much greater energy. Even if all the secondary particles impacted other Space Station structures, none would have a kinetic energy more than a fraction of the primary impact energy.

Source record↗

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) for Space Systems

This presentation discusses radiation hardness assurance (RHA) for space systems, providing both the programmatic aspects of RHA and the RHA procedure. RHA consists of all activities undertaken to ensure that the electronics and materials of a space system perform to their design specifications after exposure to the space radiation environment. RHA also pertains to environment definition, part selection, part testing, spacecraft layout, radiation tolerant design, and mission/system/subsystems requirements. RHA procedure consists of establishing mission requirements, defining and evaluating the radiation hazard, selecting and categorizing the appropriate parts, and evaluating circuit response to hazard. The RHA approach is based on risk management and is confined only to parts, it includes spacecraft layout, system/subsystem/circuit design, and system requirements and system operations. RHA should be taken into account in the early phases of a program including the proposal and feasibility analysis phases.

Poivey, Christian↗

Environmental space hazards - An overview

An overview of space hazards that exist in the geo-lunar environment is given along with specific examples of deleterious effects that can be visited upon a long-term mission-oriented spacecraft system in LEO, GEO, the intervening space, LLO, and the lunar surface. Hazards discussed are categorized as pervasive (radiation), incident specific (meteoroids, monatomic oxygen, thermal gradient and shock, and low earth orbital debris), and chemically corrosive (monatomic oxygen). It is pointed out that, while some of the difficulties encountered are common to all types of propulsion systems, in the interplanetary domain the emphasis shifts from incident specific hazards to the pervasive upsets caused by ionizing and nonionizing radiation.

Bahr, G. K.↗

Space vehicle propulsion systems: Environmental space hazards

The hazards that exist in geolunar space which may degrade, disrupt, or terminate the performance of space-based LOX/LH2 rocket engines are evaluated. Accordingly, a summary of the open literature pertaining to the geolunar space hazards is provided. Approximately 350 citations and about 200 documents and abstracts were reviewed; the documents selected give current and quantitative detail. The methodology was to categorize the various space hazards in relation to their importance in specified regions of geolunar space. Additionally, the effect of the various space hazards in relation to spacecraft and their systems were investigated. It was found that further investigation of the literature would be required to assess the effects of these hazards on propulsion systems per se; in particular, possible degrading effects on exterior nozzle structure, directional gimbals, and internal combustion chamber integrity and geometry.

Disimile, P. J.↗

Hazard Contribution Modes of Machine Learning Components

Amongst the essential steps to be taken towards developing and deploying safe systems with embedded learning-enabled components (LECs) i.e., software components that use ma- chine learning (ML)—are to analyze and understand the con- tribution of the constituent LECs to safety, and to assure that those contributions have been appropriately managed. This paper addresses both steps by, first, introducing the notion of hazard contribution modes (HCMs) a categorization of the ways in which the ML elements of LECs can contribute to hazardous system states; and, second, describing how argumentation patterns can capture the reasoning that can be used to assure HCM mitigation. Our framework is generic in the sense that the categories of HCMs developed i) can admit different learning schemes, i.e., supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, and ii) are not dependent on the type of system in which the LECs are embedded, i.e., both cyber and cyber-physical systems. One of the goals of this work is to serve a starting point for systematizing L analysis towards eventually automating it in a tool.

Smith, Colin↗

Hazard Contribution Modes of Machine Learning Components

Amongst the essential steps to be taken towards developing and deploying safe systems with embedded learning-enabled components (LECs)—i.e., software components that use machine learning (ML)—are to analyze and understand the contribution of the constituent LECs to safety, and to assure that those contributions have been appropriately managed. This paper addresses both steps by, first, introducing the otion of hazard contribution modes (HCMs)—a categorization of the ways in which the ML elements of LECs can contribute to hazardous system states; and, second, describing how argumentation patterns can capture the reasoning that can be used to assure HCM mitigation. Our framework is generic in the sense that the categories of HCMs developed i) can admit different learning schemes, i.e., supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, and ii) are not dependent on the type of system in which the LECs are embedded, i.e., both cyber and cyber-physical systems. One of the goals of this work is to serve a starting point for systematizing LEC safety analysis towards eventually automating it in a tool.

Smith, Colin↗

Gap Analysis of UAS Manuals and Hazards

Emerging aviation includes the use of small Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) in novel operations. The manufacture and operation of these small UAS are not as regulated as today’s commercial operation, and their widespread use introduces new risks and hazards to the general public. Today, there are case-by-case approvals for sUAS operations, particularly for emergency response operations in which the potential benefits to use of sUAS is perceived to outweigh potential risks. We analyze operational approvals, procedures, and concepts of operation to identify and categorize the risks and hazards that applicants and approvers are already considering, and also identify barriers and mitigations that the operators have already put in place. This analysis may help lead to routine checklists that standardize safety analysis and lead to more routine operations.

grounded theory↗

Taxonomy of Wastes

This document outlines the various ways to categorize waste, including solid (hazardous and non-hazardous) and non-solid waste types.

waste reduction, waste diversion, solid waste, non↗

Atmospheric Monitoring Strategy for Ground Testing of Closed Ecological Life Support Systems

This paper reviews the evolution and current state of atmospheric monitoring on the International Space Station to provide context from which we can imagine a more advanced and integrated system. The unique environmental hazards of human space flight are identified and categorized into groups, taking into consideration the time required for the hazard to become a threat to human health or performance. The key functions of a comprehensive monitoring strategy for a closed ecological life support system are derived from past experience and a survey of currently available technologies for monitoring air quality. Finally, a system architecture is developed incorporating the lessons learned from ISS and other analogous closed life support systems. The paper concludes by presenting recommendations on how to proceed with requirements definition and conceptual design of an air monitoring system for exploration missions.

Feighery, John↗

Real-Time Automated Health Information Technology Hazard Detection

The objective of this project is to develop an automated surveillance tool that will help the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to detect potential hazards in health information technology (HIT) systems. To achieve this objective, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) researchers have developed computational methods and a surveillance tool that will detect safety concerns and identify opportunities to improve HIT and safety within the VA system using Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) data. This work is limited to the safe operation and safe use of HIT. It does not address the use of HIT to make health care safer. This project leveraged ORNL expertise in computational sciences and its computing resources accordingly.This report documents the FY 2019 accomplishments on this project. There were three major tasks. The first task developed data extraction approaches, which helped provide a better overall understanding of the important data elements in CDW. The outputs of this task served as inputs into the second task, which is the hazard detection and characterization task. This second task involved development of three methods that can be categorized into probabilistic model, event-based hazards detection, and system-based reliability performance evaluation. The third task dealt with the design, development, and demonstration of the automated surveillance tool. The tool currently resides in ORNL’s Private Health Information enclave at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and operates on the VA’s CDW data. The developed capabilities and tool have been tested on CDW data from different clinical domains including Consult, Radiology, Laboratory, and Medication.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-driven landslide nowcasting at the global scale

Landslides affect nearly every country in the world each year. To better understand this global hazard, the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed previously. LHASA version 1 combines satellite precipitation estimates with a global landslide susceptibility map to produce a gridded map of potentially hazardous areas from 60° North-South every 3 h. LHASA version 1 categorizes the world’s land surface into three ratings: high, moderate, and low hazard with a single decision tree that first determines if the last seven days of rainfall were intense, then evaluates landslide susceptibility. LHASA version 2 has been developed with a data-driven approach. The global susceptibility map was replaced with a collection of explanatory variables, and two new dynamically varying quantities were added: snow and soil moisture. Along with antecedent rainfall, these variables modulated the response to current daily rainfall. In addition, the Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) was supplemented with several inventories of rainfall-triggered landslide events. These factors were incorporated into the machine-learning framework XGBoost, which was trained to predict the presence or absence of landslides over the period 2015–2018, with the years 2019–2020 reserved for model evaluation. As a result of these improvements, the new global landslide nowcast was twice as likely to predict the occurrence of historical landslides as LHASA version 1, given the same global false positive rate. Furthermore, the shift to probabilistic outputs allows users to directly manage the trade-off between false negatives and false positives, which should make the nowcast useful for a greater variety of geographic settings and applications. In a retrospective analysis, the trained model ran over a global domain for 5 years, and results for LHASA version 1 and version 2 were compared. Due to the importance of rainfall and faults in LHASA version 2, nowcasts would be issued more frequently in some tropical countries, such as Colombia and Papua New Guinea; at the same time, the new version placed less emphasis on arid regions and areas far from the Pacific Rim. LHASA version 2 provides a nearly real-time view of global landslide hazard for a variety of stakeholders.

XGBoos↗

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗

Safety and Security Defense-in-Depth for Nuclear Power Plants

This report describes the risk-informed technical elements that will contribute to a defense-in-depth assessment for cybersecurity. Risk-informed cybersecurity must leverage the technical elements of a risk-informed approach appropriately in order to evaluate cybersecurity risk insights. HAZCADS and HAZOP+ are suitable methodologies to model the connection between digital harm and process hazards. Risk assessment modeling needs to be expanded beyond HAZCADS and HAZOP+ to consider the sequence of events that lead to plant consequences. Leveraging current practices in PRA can lead to categorization of digital assets and prioritizing digital assets commensurate with the risk. Ultimately, the culmination of cyber hazard methodologies, event sequence modeling, and digital asset categorization will facilitate a defense-in-depth assessment of cybersecurity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hazards Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) of Four Concept Vehicle Propulsion Systems

The primary objective of this research effort is to identify failure modes and hazards associated with the concept vehicles and to perform functional hazard analyses (FHA) and failure modes and effects criticality analyses (FMECA) for each. Boeing also created a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for each of the concept vehicles, as the FTA contains the connectivity between systems and is an accepted, top-down method to analyze the safety of an air-vehicle. Conceptual design of notional powertrain configuration for each of four (4) NASA RVLT (Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology) Concept Vehicles were developed in as much detail as was necessary to support the reliability and safety analysis for this project. Functional block diagrams from each of the conceptual powertrain configurations were created and used to order the FHA, FMECA, and FTA. Hazards were identified and the severity of each were categorized in the FHA for use in a follow-up FMECA. The FTA took inputs from the FMECA and the functional block diagrams to develop the connectivity and develop a quantitative architecture that could be used to perform sensitivity studies, as related to vehicle safety.Guidelines for reliability targets for both the air vehicle and the operation in the UAM (Urban Air Mobility) mission are discussed. An industry literature search was performed in order to assess gaps in existing government regulations and industry specifications. The industry literature search led to air-vehicle and operational reliability discussions, as related to Distributed Electric/Hybrid-Electric Propulsion (DE/HEP) system operating in the UAM role. A discussion of results and recommendations for future work is also provided.

Hazards Analysis↗

Alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk in Japan: A pooled analysis of eight population‐based cohort studies

Abstract Although alcohol consumption is reported to increase the incidence of breast cancer in European studies, evidence for an association between alcohol and breast cancer in Asian populations is insufficient. We conducted a pooled analysis of eight large‐scale population‐based prospective cohort studies in Japan to evaluate the association between alcohol (both frequency and amount) and breast cancer risk with categorization by menopausal status at baseline and at diagnosis. Estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the individual cohorts and combined using random‐effects models. Among 158 164 subjects with 2 369 252 person‐years of follow‐up, 2208 breast cancer cases were newly diagnosed. Alcohol consumption had a significant association with a higher risk of breast cancer in both women who were premenopausal at baseline (regular drinker compared to nondrinker: HR 1.37, 1.04‐1.81, ≥23 g/d compared to 0 g/d: HR 1.74, 1.25‐2.43, P for trend per frequency category: P = .017) and those who were premenopausal at diagnosis (≥23 g/d compared to 0 g/d: HR 1.89, 1.04‐3.43, P for trend per frequency category: P = .032). In contrast, no significant association was seen in women who were postmenopausal at baseline or at diagnosis, despite a substantial number of subjects and long follow‐up period. Our results revealed that frequent and high alcohol consumption are both risk factors for Asian premenopausal breast cancer, similarly to previous studies in Western countries. The lack of a clear association in postmenopausal women in our study warrants larger investigation in Asia.

Iwase, Madoka↗

Effect of Soil Properties and Input Motion on Site Amplification Using Validated Nonlinear Soil Model

Here, three-dimensional (3-D) nonlinear site response analyses are conducted using finite element models of actual soil profiles from ten nuclear power plant (NPP) sites in the United States to investigate the effects of soil properties and input motions on site amplification. The modeling approach developed in this study combines several novel elements, such as 3-D analysis (including vertical motions), nonlinear inelastic behavior of soil (strain-dependent shear modulus reduction and hysteretic damping), formulation of nonreflecting boundary conditions at the base, and generation of realistic outcrop ground motions for specific sites. All these elements of the modeling approach are first validated using actual data from five earthquakes at three downhole array stations recorded in the Kiban-Kyoshin network (KiK-net), Japan. The same approach is then used to develop site models of ten NPP sites in the United States and corresponding ground motions that are spectrally matched to the site hazard spectra. Eight sets of three-component input motions are used in the study and are categorized on the basis of presence or absence of a near-field pulse in the seed ground motions used for spectral matching. It is found that all sites retain a definite site amplification function regardless of the input motion, provided that the seed motion is spectrally matched to the site hazard spectra. The magnitude of site amplification and frequencies at which they occur depend upon soil properties, particularly the shear wave velocity profile and the constitutive relationship (strain-dependent shear modulus reduction and hysteretic damping) of soil. Amplification of spectral acceleration in the vertical direction (up-down motion) is found to be just as much as, if not more than, the amplification in the horizontal direction. Peak shear strain is found to be about 20% larger for near-field motions compared to far-field motions whereas maximum horizontal site amplification for far-field motions is found to be consistently larger than that of near-field motions, even though the differences between the two remain within the scatter resulting from individual ground motions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The Role of Adjuvant Radiotherapy in the Treatment of Pleural Mesothelioma

Background: Pleural mesothelioma is a rare but aggressive form of cancer. Local recurrence represents the majority of treatment failures and overall survival (OS) outcomes remain dismal. Adding locoregional treatment with radiotherapy after surgical resection has been considered but its role remains uncertain. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcomes of adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) for patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma. Methods: The National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) was queried (2004–2013) for patients with malignant mesothelioma. Patients were divided into three groups: observation, surgery alone, and surgery followed by adjuvant RT. Statistics included Fisher’s exact or Chi square tests to analyze categorical proportions between groups, Kaplan–Meier analysis to evaluate OS, and Cox proportional hazards modeling to determine variables associated with OS. Propensity matching was performed to make comparisons between homogenous groups. Results: Overall, the surgery plus radiotherapy group had a higher median survival (21.4 months) compared with surgery alone (16.59 months) [p < 0.001]. RT was more likely to be delivered after extrapleural pneumonectomy than with lung-sparing surgical approaches. On multivariable analysis, receipt of surgery plus radiotherapy, chemotherapy administration, and higher socioeconomic status were associated with improved OS (p < 0.0001). After propensity matching, receipt of surgery plus radiotherapy and chemotherapy administration were still associated with improved OS (p < 0.05). Conclusions: In the treatment of malignant pleural mesothelioma, adjuvant radiotherapy after surgical intervention was associated with improved OS. This study is the largest study of adjuvant radiotherapy to date, and our findings highlight the need for additional prospective data.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Supplemental Environmental Baseline Survey for Proposed Land Use Permit Modification for Expansion of the Dynamic Explosive Test Site (DETS) 9940 Main Complex Parking Lot

The “subject property” is comprised of a parcel of land within the Kirtland Military Reservation, Bernalillo County, New Mexico, as shown on the map in Appendix B of this document. The land requirement for the parking lot addition to the 9940 Main Complex is approximately 2.7 acres. The scope of this Supplemental Environmental Baseline Survey (SEBS) is for the parking lot addition land transfer only. For details on the original 9940 Main Complex see Environmental Baseline Survey, Land Use Permit Request for the 9940 Complex PERM/0-KI-00-0001, August 21, 2003, and for details on the 9940 Complex Expansion see Environmental Baseline Survey, Proposed Land Use Permit Expansion for 9940 DETS Complex, June 24, 2009. The 2.7-acre parcel of land for the new parking lot, which is the subject of this EBS (also referred to as the “subject property”), is adjacent to the southwest boundary of the original 12.3- acre 9940 Main Complex. No testing is known to have taken place on the subject property site. The only activity known to have taken place was the burial of overhead utility lines in 2014. Adjacent to the subject property, the 9940 Main Complex was originally a 12.3-acre site used by the Department of Energy (DOE) under a land use permit from the United States Air Force (USAF). Historical use of the site, dating from 1964, included arming, fusing, and firing of explosives and testing of explosives systems components. In the late 1970s and early 1980s experiments at the 9940 Main Complex shifted toward reactor safety issues. From 1983 to 1988, fuel coolant interaction (FCI) experiments were conducted, as were experiments with conventional high explosives (HE). Today, the land is used for training of the Nuclear Emergency Response community and for research on energetic materials. In 2009, the original complex was expanded to include four additional 20-acre areas: 9940 Training South, 9940 Training East, T-Range 6, and Training West Landing Zone. The proposed use of the subject property is for the purpose of adding a parking lot to serve the increase in customer vehicles that is occurring as the 9940 Main Complex is more heavily utilized, and as the 2009 Expansion areas come online as operational training facilities. The subject property would be used only for parking, not for testing or training activities. The parking lot would have a gravel surface. Current and future work at the 9940 Main Complex involves arming, fuzing, and firing of explosives and the testing of explosive systems components in both terrestrial and aquatic settings. It also involves specialized training activities for a variety of first responder customers, both DOE and non-DOE agencies. The approach was to perform a document search, supplemented by a visual site inspection, to identify potential environmental contamination associated with the property. Factors evaluated included hazardous substances; petroleum products and derivatives; environmental restoration sites; areas of concern; storage tanks; oil/water separators; grease traps; wash racks; waste tanks; pesticides; military munitions/ordnance; medical or bio-hazardous waste; radioactive waste; solid/municipal waste; indoor air quality; groundwater; wastewater treatment, collection, and disposal/discharge; drinking water quality; utilities; asbestos; polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs); radon; lead-based paint; cultural resources; floodplains; and natural/biological resources. Each of these factors is evaluated separately in Section 5, Findings for Subject Property. The property categorization for this subject property would be considered Category 1- “An area or real property where no storage, release, or disposal of hazardous substances or petroleum products or their derivatives has occurred into the environment or structures or disposed on the subject property (including no migration of these substances from adjacent properties).” There appears to be sufficient information to categorize the subject property and it appears that no further effort needs to be made to obtain additional information. There are no findings of an adverse nature on the subject property itself or from adjacent properties. It is recommended that the proposed transfer of the subject property from the USAF to DOE proceed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗