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Mortality attributable to PM 2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM 2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM 2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM 2.5 , applying ZIP code–level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM 2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $\$432$ to $\$456$ billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spinning the Facts against Genetically Engineered Foods?

A signaling game is developed in order to derive the equilibrium conditions under which special interest groups (SIGs) involved in the controversial debate over genetically engineered (GE) foods have the incentive to truthfully reveal their information or spin facts regarding the health impact of GE foods. Consumers can choose to inspect information provided by SIGs at a cost. The risk of spinning facts is much higher for pro-GE groups, because if it turns out that a certain GE food is unsafe, the penalty will be severe. However, anti-GE groups can still spin facts at low risk even if consumers choose to inspect. This helps explain why some pro-GE groups, particularly the biotech industry, tend to remain silent. Revealing information regarding the safety of GE foods could be counterproductive given pre-existing public skepticism. Consumers may not make “better” decisions with more information provided because more information increases their inspection costs. When it is costlier for consumers to inspect, it is more likely that anti-GE groups will continue to spin facts about the negative health impact of GE foods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced transport of bacteria along root systems by protists can impact plant health

ABSTRACT Soil protists have been shown to contribute to the structure and function of the rhizosphere in a variety of ways. Protists are key contributors to nutrient cycling through the microbial loop, where biomass is digested by protists and otherwise stored nutrients are returned to the environment. Protists have also been shown to feed on plant pathogenic bacteria and alter root microbiomes in ways that may benefit plants. Recently, a mechanism involving bacterial transport, facilitated by protists, has been hypothesized to contribute to the spatial distribution of bacteria in the rhizosphere. Here, we observe the differential abilities of three soil protists: a ciliate (Colpodasp.), a flagellate (Cercomonassp.), and a naked amoeba (Acanthamoeba castellanii) to transport nitrogen-fixingSinorhizobium melilotito infectible root tips. Co-inoculation of protists plusS. melilotiresulted in the movement of bacteria, as measured by the presence of nitrogen-fixing nodules, up to 15 cm farther down the root systems when compared to plants inoculated withS. melilotialone. Co-inoculation of the ciliate, Colpodasp., withS. meliloti, resulted in shoot weights that were similar to plants that grew in nitrogen-replete potting mix.Colpodasp.-feeding style and motility likely contributed to their success at transporting bacteria through the rhizosphere. We observed that the addition of protists alone without the co-inoculum ofS. melilotiresulted in plants with larger shoot weights than control plants. Follow-up experiments showed that protists plus their associated microbiomes were aiding in plant health, likely through means of nutrient cycling. IMPORTANCE Protists represent a significant portion of the rhizosphere microbiome and have been shown to contribute to plant health, yet they are understudied compared to their bacterial and fungal counterparts. This study elucidates their role in the rhizosphere community and suggests a mechanism by which protists can be used to move bacteria along plant roots. We found that the co-inoculation of protists with nitrogen-fixing beneficial bacteria,Sinorhizobium meliloti, resulted in nodules farther down the roots when compared to plants inoculated with S.melilotialone, and shoot weights similar to plants that received nitrogen fertilizer. These data illustrate the ability of protists to transport viable bacteria to uninhabited regions of the root system.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗

The development and use of decision support framework for informing selection of select agent toxins with modelling studies to inform permissible toxin amounts

Many countries have worked diligently to establish and implement policies and processes to regulate high consequence pathogens and toxins that could have a significant public health impact if misused. In the United States, the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-132, 1996), as amended by the Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-188, 2002) requires that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) [through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] establish a list of bacteria, viruses, and toxins that have the potential to pose a severe threat to public health and safety. Currently, this list is reviewed and updated on a biennial basis using input from subject matter experts (SMEs). We have developed decision support framework (DSF) approaches to facilitate selection of select toxins and, where toxicity data are known, conducted modelling studies to inform selection of toxin amounts that should be excluded from select agent regulations. Exclusion limits allow laboratories to possess toxins under an established limit to support their research or teaching activities without the requirement to register with the Federal Select Agent Program. Fact sheets capturing data from a previously vetted SME workshop convened by CDC, literature review and SME input were developed to assist in evaluating toxins using the DSF approach. The output of the DSF analysis agrees with the current select toxin designations, and no other toxins evaluated in this study were recommended for inclusion on the select agent and toxin list. To inform the selection of exclusion limits, attack scenarios were developed to estimate the amount of toxin needed to impact public health. Scenarios consisted of simulated aerosol releases of a toxin in high-population-density public facilities and the introduction of a toxin into a daily consumable product supply chain. Using published inhalation and ingestion median toxic dose (TD 50 ) and median lethal dose (LD 50 ) values, where available, a range of toxin amounts was examined to estimate the number of people exposed to these amounts in these scenarios. Based on data generated by these models, we proposed toxin exclusion values corresponding to levels below those that would trigger a significant public health response (i.e., amounts estimated to expose up to ten people by inhalation or one hundred people by ingestion to LD 50 or TD 50 levels of toxin in the modeled scenarios).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Optimizing DER Deployment for Climate, Health, Resilience, and Energy Bill Benefits Using the REopt Model

Climate change, public health, and resilience to power outages are of critical concern to local governments, federal agencies, and the private sector, and are increasingly motivating investments in distributed energy resources (DERs). However, designing a solar-plus-storage system to co-optimize for climate, health, resilience, and energy bill benefits requires complex trade-offs. To address this need, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has integrated climate and health impacts of grid-purchased electricity and on-site fuel consumption into the publicly-available REopt web tool and API - a techno-economic model that determines the cost-optimal DER system sizes and dispatch strategy. This presentation will provide an overview of the tool's methodology, datasets, and capabilities, including costing emissions into system sizing and dispatch and setting emissions reductions targets. Results of previous work will demonstrate the use of new emissions accounting capabilities by quantifying the impact of including climate and health costs on the optimal resilient microgrid configurations for a hospital, school, and warehouse across 14 U.S. cities.

climate↗

Generalizability of heat-related health risk associations observed in a large healthcare claims database of patients with commercial health insurance

Extreme ambient heat is unambiguously associated with higher risk of illness and death. The Optum Labs Data Warehouse (OLDW), a database of medical claims from US-based patients with commercial or Medicare Advantage health insurance, has been used to quantify heat-related health impacts. Whether results for the insured sub-population are generalizable to the broader population has to our knowledge not been documented. We sought to address this question, for the US population in California from 2012 to 2019. We examined changes in daily rates of emergency department (ED) encounters and in-patient hospitalization encounters for all-causes, heat-related outcomes, renal disease, mental/behavioral disorders, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. OLDW was the source for health data for insured individuals in California, and health data for the broader population were gathered from the California Department of Health Care Access and Information (HCAI). We defined extreme heat exposure as any day in a group of 2 or more days with maximum temperatures exceeding the county-specific 97.5 th percentile and used a space-time-stratified case–crossover design to assess and compare the impacts of heat on health. Average incidence rates of medical encounters differed by dataset. However, rate ratios for ED encounters were similar across datasets for all causes (ratio of incidence rate ratios (rIRR) = 0.989; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.973, 1.011), heat-related causes (rIRR = 1.080; 95% CI = 0.999, 1.168), renal disease (rIRR = 0.963; 95% CI = 0.718, 1.292), and mental health disorders (rIRR = 1.098; 95% CI = 1.004, 1.201). Rate ratios for inpatient encounters were also similar. This work presents evidence that OLDW can continue to be a resource for estimating the health impacts of extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dataset Repository for Investigating Suicide Risk Using Social and Environmental Determinants of Health

Suicide is frequently modeled as a function of genetics and environment, where the latter refers to factors other than direct biological consequences, such as air quality, financial level, social connectivity, transportation and food access, and homelessness status. According to the World Health Organization, clean air, a stable climate, adequate water, sanitation and hygiene, safe chemical use, radiation protection, healthy and safe workplaces, sound agricultural practices, health-supportive cities and built environments, and a preserved natural environment are all prerequisites for good health. Understanding the relationships between these determinants and mental health outcomes requires standardized data that can be included in healthcare programs and health outcome models. There is a wealth of publicly available data on social and environmental factors provided by various US organizations that can benefit the design of health care systems and public health interventions, as well as improve our comprehension of factors that impact health. Such information would not only help improve the understanding of individual and community risk but also identify new risk factors that have not previously been therapeutically targeted, especially in terms of their impact on mental health. However, curating and standardizing such datasets is challenging because they are often recorded at numerous geographical and temporal resolutions and with varying spatial and temporal granularities. To address this challenge, we launched an endeavor in conjunction with the Veterans Health Administration to collect publicly available socioeconomic and environmental determinants of health statistics in the US. In this manuscript, we describe a social and environmental determinants of health (SEDH) datasets repository, data curation documentation, and a pipeline framework for data generation; This effort started in 2020, when we began constructing a scalable pipeline to automate the download, extraction, preparation, analysis, and production of datasets. These datasets have been made available to the VHA and may be shared upon agreement with collaborating organizations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Tax Credits for Clean Electricity: The Distributional Impacts of Supply-Push Policies in the Power Sector

We evaluate distributional and efficiency consequences of the bulk power clean electricity tax credits authorized by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. To do so, we link detailed electricity capacity expansion, computable general equilibrium, microsimulation, and air pollution models to estimate economic welfare and health incidence across demographic groups. We evaluate trade-offs between policy efficiency and income progressivity by comparing the tax credits to cap-and-trade policies. The tax credits encourage increased clean electricity investment, resulting in a reallocation of capital from elsewhere in the economy, higher prices for capital and other goods, lower power prices, and lower emissions. The tax credits yield progressive outcomes for economic welfare at the expense of efficiency while all modeled policies demonstrate progressivity in health impacts. The health benefits, absent climate benefits, exceed total policy costs and provide greater benefits for low-income and historically marginalized households given coincidence of household locations and emissions exposure intensity.

distributional impacts↗

Burn parameters affect PAH emissions at conditions relevant for prescribed fires

Wildfire smoke is a health hazard as it contains carcinogenic volatile compounds and fine particulate matter. In particular, exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is a major concern, since these compounds have been recognized as important contributors to the overall carcinogenic risk. In this work, gas and particle-phase PAH emissions from combustion of Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus) were quantified using time-of-flight mass spectrometry over a range of burn conditions representative of wildfires and prescribed fires, including fuel moisture, heat flux, and oxygen concentration. We found that changing the burn environment lead to a variability of up to 77% in phenanthrene/anthracene emissions. This could explain a large part of the variability in PAH emission factors from biomass combustion reported in the literature. Here, we found that optimal conditions for fuel moisture content of 20–30%, sample heat load of 60 - 70 kW m -2 , and oxygen concentrations of 5–15% can significantly reduce the emissions of heavy molar weight PAHs. Our analysis showed that the relative carcinogenic risk from PAH exposure can be reduced by more than 50% under optimal conditions. In light of the increasing use of prescribed fire for forest management, the relationship between emissions and burn conditions that we have established provides a guidance for assessing the expected health impact from prescription burns, and can inform strategies to reduce PAH emissions from prescribed fire activities.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

The health, climate, and equity benefits of freight truck electrification in the United States

Abstract Long-haul freight shipment in the United States relies on diesel trucks and constitutes ∼3% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and a significant share of local air pollution. Here, we compare the climate and air pollution-related health damages from electric versus diesel long-haul truck fleets. We use truck commodity flows to estimate tailpipe emissions from diesel trucks and regional grid emissions intensities to estimate charging emissions from electric trucks under various grid scenarios. We use a reduced complexity air quality model combined with valuation of air pollution-related premature deaths (using two hazard ratios (HRs)) and quantify the distributional health impacts in different scenarios. We find that annual health and climate costs of the current diesel fleet are $195–$249/capita compared to $174–$205/capita for a new diesel fleet, and $156–$177/capita for an electric fleet, depending on the HR. We find that freight electrification could avoid $6.2–8.5 billion in health and climate damages annually when compared to a fleet of new diesel vehicles (with even higher benefits when compared to the current diesel fleet). However, the Midwest and parts of the Gulf Coast would experience an increase in health damages due to vehicles charging using electricity from coal power plants. If old coal power plants (operating in 1980 or earlier) are replaced with zero-emission generation, electrification of all U.S. freight would result in $32.3–39.2 billion in avoided damages annually and health benefits throughout the U.S. Electrifying transport of consumer manufacturing goods (including electronics, transport equipment, and precision instruments) and food, beverage, and tobacco products would provide the largest absolute health and climate benefits, whereas mixed freight and manufacturing goods would result in the largest benefits per tonne-km. We find small variations in health damages across race and income. These results will help policymakers prioritize electrification and charging investment strategies for the freight transportation sub-sector.

Hennessy, Eleanor M. (ORCID:0000000294715765)↗

North China Plain as a hot spot of ozone pollution exacerbated by extreme high temperatures

Abstract. A large population in China has been exposed to both severe ozone (O3) pollution and extreme heat under global warming. Here, the spatiotemporal characteristics of coupled extremes in surface O3 and heat (OPCs) over China are investigated using surface observations, a process-based chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), and multi-model simulations from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). North China Plain (NCP; 37–41∘ N; 114–120∘ E) is identified as a hot spot of OPCs, where more than half of the O3 pollution days are accompanied by high temperature extremes. OPCs over NCP exceeded 40 d during 2014–2019, exhibiting an increasing trend. Both O3 concentrations and temperatures are elevated during OPCs compared with O3 pollution days occurring individually (OPIs). Therefore, OPCs impose more severe health impacts to humans than OPIs, but the stronger health effects are mainly driven by the higher temperatures. GEOS-Chem simulations further reveal that enhanced chemical production resulting from hot and stable atmospheric conditions under anomalous weather patterns primarily contributes to the exacerbated O3 levels during OPCs. In the future, CMIP6 projections suggest increased occurrences of OPCs over NCP in the middle of this century, but by the end of this century, OPCs may decrease or increase depending on the pollutant emission scenarios. However, for all future scenarios, extreme high temperatures will play an increasingly important role in modulating O3 pollution in a warming climate.

Wang, Pinya (ORCID:0000000170347868)↗

Impact of Solid State Roadway Lighting on Melatonin in Humans

Introduction: In 2009, the World Health Organization identified vehicle crashes, both injury-related and fatal, as a public health hazard. Roadway lighting has long been used to reduce crashes and improve the safety of all road users. Ocular light exposure at night can suppress melatonin levels in humans. At sufficient light levels, all visible light wavelengths can elicit this response, but melatonin suppression is maximally sensitive to visible short wavelength light. With the conversion of roadway lighting to solid state sources that have a greater short wavelength spectrum than traditional sources, there is a potential negative health impact through suppressed melatonin levels to roadway users and those living close to the roadway. This paper presents data on the impact of outdoor roadway lighting on salivary melatonin in three cohorts of participants: drivers, pedestrians, and those experiencing light trespass in their homes. Methods: In an outdoor naturalistic roadway environment, healthy participants (N = 29) each being assigned to a cohort of either pedestrian, driver, or light trespass experiment, were exposed to five different solid state light sources with differing spectral emissions and one no lighting condition. Salivary melatonin measurements were made under an average roadway luminance of 1.0 cd/m2 (IES RP-18 Roadway Lighting Requirements for expressway roads) with a corneal melanopic Equivalent Daylight Illuminances (EDI) ranging from 0.22 to 0.86 lux. Results: The results indicate that compared to the no roadway lighting condition, the roadway light source spectral content did not significantly impact salivary melatonin levels in the participants in any of the cohorts. Conclusions: These data show that recommended levels of street lighting for expressway roads do not elicit an acute suppression of salivary melatonin and suggest that the health benefit of roadway lighting for traffic safety is not compromised by an acute effect on salivary melatonin.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Assessing health and environmental impacts of solvents for producing perovskite solar cells

Halide perovskites are poised as a game-changing semiconductor system with diverse applications in optoelectronics. Industrial entities aim to commercialize perovskite technologies because of high performance but also because this type of semiconductor can be processed from solution, a feature enabling low cost and fast production. In this work, we analyse the health and environmental impacts of eight solvents commonly used in perovskite processing. We consider first- and higher-order ramifications of each solvent on an industrial scale such as solvent production, use/removal, emissions and potential end-of-life treatments. Further, we consider the energy of evaporation for each solvent, air emission, condensation and subsequent incineration, reuse or distillation for solvent recycling, and apply a full end-of-life analysis. For human health impact, we use the ‘USEtox’ method but also consider toxicity data beyond carcinogenic classifications. We find that dimethyl sulfoxide has the lowest total impact, by being the most environmentally friendly and least deleterious to human health of the solvents considered. The analysis of the effects of these solvents on human health and the environment provides guidance for sustainable development of this new technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Investigating the Impacts of Outdoor Lighting (Final Report)

This report documents the research associated with the Depart of Energy supported project “Investigating the Health Impact of Outdoor Lighting.” This project was developed to consider how alternative solid state lighting options, particularly the spectral power distribution, effected the hormone melatonin which ultimately could lead to potential health issues. The project also provides an opportunity to gather other secondary data with respect to visual performance in a controlled environment. These tasks were developed to consider how alternative solid state lighting applications impacted performance. This report is a complete documentation of the tasks undertaken as part of this project. The report includes a literature review and consideration of the background data which are part of this field of study as well as a documentation of the methods developed as part of the project. The melatonin results, the primary dependent variable are included in the attached peer-review paper that has been recent published (Gibbons et al., 2022). Our discussion of these results are included in that publication. Other results from this project will be documented in one or more future publications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Peanut allergy burden survey: Factors associated with health‐related quality of life in adolescents

Abstract Background Patients with peanut allergy (PA) experience significant burden of illness, which impacts health‐related quality of life (HRQoL), particularly in adolescence. There is a paucity of research evaluating drivers of HRQoL scores. Methods A prospective, online survey of adolescents with self‐reported, provider‐diagnosed PA completed from November 2018 to January 2019 was used to explore drivers of the real‐world impact of PA on HRQoL using the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 (PedsQL) and other measures. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify potential factors associated with PedsQL scores and to understand the level of association. Results A total of 102 adolescents were included. The final model included 10 variables: race, reported strict peanut avoidance, satisfaction with prophylaxis, moderate‐to‐severe reaction within the past 12 months, touching peanut as cause of most severe reaction, fear of reaction, age, gender, comorbidities, and daily life limitations. In total, three items were shown to be strong predictors of the PedsQL total score including cause of severe reaction was touching peanut (yes), level of agreement with avoiding peanut (completely agree), and satisfaction with prophylaxis (not very much/not at all). Conclusions There is substantial heterogeneity in the impact of the burden of PA on PedsQL scores across patients. This indicates the importance of shared and individualized decision making for PA management to optimize outcomes and improve HRQoL.

McCann, William A.↗

Cost effectiveness of preemptive school closures to mitigate pandemic influenza outbreaks of differing severity in the United States

Background: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences. Methods: We used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy. Results: For the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $\$7.5$ billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $\$97$ billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district–wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31–47 million) and deaths (105,000–156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($\$88$-$\$103$ billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis. Conclusions: We found that the net costs per death averted ($\$180,000$-$\$4.2$ million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($\$4.6$ to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling the impact of smoke from prescribed fire on road visibility

Prescribed fires are planned to achieve conservation and fuel reduction objectives while minimizing smoke ground concentration to limit health impacts and road visibility impairment. Prescribed burns cannot indeed be conducted if those hazards are not within predefined limits. This paper proposes a new framework to evaluate road visibility that overcomes the limitation of the state of the art model, VSMOKE. The framework leverages the fast-running framework QUIC-Fire/QUIC-SMOKE to capture fire and smoke dynamics, and the timing and duration of hazardous conditions on the road network close to the burn unit (within 50–100 km). The paper presents parametric study using a real burn plot at Fort Stewart (GA, USA), under hypothetical wind conditions to understand the interplay between buoyancy and smoke dilution. Here, results showed that faster winds caused fire escape while slower winds did not achieve a complete burn. Furthermore, faster winds featured brief road visibility reduction below braking distance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗