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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Analyzing Machine Learning Predictions of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Spectral Difference Over Snow-Covered Terrain in High Mountain Asia

Snow is an important component of the terrestrial freshwater budget in high mountainAsia (HMA) and contributes to the runoff in Himalayan rivers through snowmelt. Despitethe importance of snow in HMA, considerable spatiotemporal uncertainty exists across the different estimates of snow water equivalent for this region. In order to better estimate snow water equivalent, radiative transfer models are often used in conjunction with microwave brightness temperature measurements. In this study, the efficacy of support vector machines (SVMs), a machine learning technique, to predict passive microwave brightness temperature spectral difference (1Tb) as a function of geophysical variables (snow water equivalent, snow depth, snow temperature, and snow density) is explored through a sensitivity analysis. The use of machine learning (as opposed to radiative transfer models) is a relatively new and novel approach for improving snow water equivalent estimates. The Noah-MP land surface model within the NASALand Information System framework is used to simulate the hydrologic cycle over HMA and model geophysical variables that are then used for SVM training. The SVMsserve as a nonlinear map between the geophysical space (modeled in Noah-MP) andthe observation space (1Tb as measured by the radiometer). Advanced MicrowaveScanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System measured passive microwave brightness temperatures over snow-covered locations in the HMA region are used as training data during the SVM training phase. Sensitivity of well-trained SVMs to each Noah-MP modeled state variable is assessed by computing normalized sensitivity coefficients. Sensitivity analysis results generally conform with the known first-order physics. Input states that increase volume scattering of microwave radiation, such as snow density and snow water equivalent, exhibit a plurality of positive normalized sensitivity coefficients. In general, snow temperature was the most sensitive input to the SVM predictions. The sensitivity of each state is location and time dependent. The signs of normalized sensitivity coefficients that indicate physical irrationality are ascribed to significant cross-correlation between Noah-MP simulated states and decreased SVM prediction capability at specific locations due to insufficient training data. SVM prediction pitfalls do exist that serve to highlight the limitations of this particular machine learning algorithm.

high mountain Asia↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of VIIRS and MODIS snow cover fraction in High-Mountain Asia using Landsat 8 OLI

We present thefirst application of the Snow Covered Area and Grain size model (SCAG) tothe Visible Infrared imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and assess these retrievals withfiner-resolution fractional snow cover maps from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI).Because Landsat 8 OLI avoids saturation issues common to Landsat 1–7 in the visiblewavelengths, we re-assess the accuracy of the SCAG fractional snow cover maps fromModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) that were previously evaluatedusing data from earlier Landsat sensors. Use of the fractional snow cover maps fromLandsat 8 OLI shows a negative bias of−0.5% for MODSCAG and−1.3% for VIIRSCAG,whereas previous MODSCAG evaluations found a bias of−7.6% in the Himalaya. Wefindsimilar root mean squared error (RMSE) values of 0.133 and 0.125 for MODIS and VIIRS,respectively. The Recall statistic (probability of detection) for cells with more than 15%snow cover in this challenging steep topography was found to be 0.90 for both MODSCAGand VIIRSCAG, significantly higher than previous evaluations based on Landsat 5Thematic Mapper (TM) and 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+). In addition,daily retrievals from MODIS and VIIRS are consistent across gradients of elevation, slope,and aspect. Different native resolutions of the gridded products at 1 km and 500 m forVIIRS and MODIS, respectively, result in snow cover maps showing a slightly differentdistribution of values with VIIRS having more mixed pixels and MODIS having 7% morepure snow pixels. Despite the resolution differences, the snow maps from both sensorsproduce similar total snow-covered areas and snow-line elevations in this region, withR2values of 0.98 and 0.88, respectively. Wefind that the SCAG algorithm performsconsistently across various spatial resolutions and that fractional snow cover mapsfrom the VIIRS instruments aboard Suomi NPP, JPPS–1, and JPPS–2 can be asuitable replacement as MODIS sensors reach their ends of life.

Karl Rittger↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of High Mountain Asia-Land Data Assimilation System (Version 1) from 2003 to 2016, Part I: A Hyper-Resolution Terrestrial Modeling System

This first paper of the two-part series focuses on demonstrating the accuracy of a hyper-resolution, offline terrestrial modeling system used for the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. To this end, this study systematically evaluates four sets of model simulations at point scale, basin scale, and domain scale obtained from different spatial resolutions including 0.01° (∼1-km) and 0.25° (∼25-km). The assessment is conducted via comparisons against ground-based observations and satellite-derived reference products. The key variables of interest include surface net shortwave radiation, surface net longwave radiation, skin temperature, near-surface soil temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, and total runoff. In the evaluation against ground-based measurements, the superiority of the 0.01° estimates are mostly demonstrated across relatively complex terrain. Specifically, hyper-resolution modeling improves the skill in meteorological forcing estimates (except precipitation) by 9% relative to coarse-resolution estimates. The model forced by downscaled forcings in its entirety yields the highest skill in model output states as well as precipitation, which improves the skill obtained by coarse-resolution estimates by 7%. These findings, on one hand, corroborate the importance of employing the hyper-resolution versus coarse-resolution modeling in areas characterized by complex terrain. On the other hand, by evaluating four sets of model simulations forced with different precipitation products, this study emphasizes the importance of accurate hyper-resolution precipitation products to drive model simulations.

Yuan Xue↗
NASA NTRS2022

Evaluation of High Mountain Asia-Land Data Assimilation System (version 1) from 2003 to 2016: 2. The impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into a land surface model

This second paper of the two-part series focuses on demonstrating the impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into the hyper-resolution, offline terrestrial modeling system used for the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region from 2003 to 2016. To this end, this study systematically evaluates a total of six sets of 0.01° (∼1 km) model simulations forced by different precipitation forcings, with and without the dual assimilation scheme enabled, at point-scale, basin-scale, and domain-scale. The key variables of interest include surface net shortwave radiation, surface net longwave radiation, skin temperature, near-surface soil temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and total runoff. First, the point-scale assessment is mainly conducted via evaluating against ground-based measurements. In general, the assimilation enabled estimates are better than no-assimilation counterparts. Second, the basin-scale runoff assessment demonstrates that across three snow-dominated basins, the assimilation enabled experiment yields systematic improvements in all goodness-of-fit statistics through mitigating the negative effects brought by the fixed long-term precipitation correction factors. For example, when forced by the bias-corrected precipitation, the assimilation-enabled experiment improves the bias by 69%, the root-mean-squared error by 30%, and the unbiased root-mean-squared error by 18% (relative to the no-assimilation counterpart). Finally, the domainscale assessment is conducted via evaluating against satellite-based SWE and skin temperature products. Both sets of domain-scale analysis further corroborate the findings in the point-scale evaluations. Overall, this study suggests the benefits of the proposed multi-variate assimilation system in improving the cryospherichydrological process within a land surface model for use in HMA.

Yuan Xue↗
NASA NTRS2022

Evaluation of High Mountain Asia-Land Data Assimilation System (version 1) from 2003 to 2016: 2. The impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into a land surface model

This second paper of the two-part series focuses on demonstrating the impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into the hyper-resolution, offline terrestrial modeling system used for the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region from 2003 to 2016. To this end, this study systematically evaluates a total of six sets of 0.01° (∼1 km) model simulations forced by different precipitation forcings, with and without the dual assimilation scheme enabled, at point-scale, basin-scale, and domain-scale. The key variables of interest include surface net shortwave radiation, surface net longwave radiation, skin temperature, near-surface soil temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and total runoff. First, the point-scale assessment is mainly conducted via evaluating against ground-based measurements. In general, the assimilation enabled estimates are better than no-assimilation counterparts. Second, the basin-scale runoff assessment demonstrates that across three snow-dominated basins, the assimilation enabled experiment yields systematic improvements in all goodness-of-fit statistics through mitigating the negative effects brought by the fixed long-term precipitation correction factors. For example, when forced by the bias-corrected precipitation, the assimilation-enabled experiment improves the bias by 69%, the root-mean-squared error by 30%, and the unbiased root-mean-squared error by 18% (relative to the no-assimilation counterpart). Finally, the domain-scale assessment is conducted via evaluating against satellite-based SWE and skin temperature products. Both sets of domain-scale analysis further corroborate the findings in the point-scale evaluations. Overall, this study suggests the benefits of the proposed multi-variate assimilation system in improving the cryospheric-hydrological process within a land surface model for use in HMA.

Yuan Xue↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dominant controls of cold-season precipitation variability over the high mountains of Asia

A robust understanding of the sub-seasonal cold season (November–March) precipitation variability over the High Mountains of Asia (HMA) is lacking. Here, we identify dynamic and thermodynamic pathways through which natural modes of climate variability establish their teleconnections over the HMA. First, we identify evaporative sources that contribute to the cold season precipitation over the HMA and surrounding areas. The predominant moisture contribution comes from the mid-latitude regions, including the Mediterranean/Caspian Seas and Mediterranean land. Second, we establish that several tropical and extratropical forcings display a sub-seasonally fluctuating influence on precipitation distribution over the region during the cold season. Many of them varyingly interact, so their impacts cannot be explained independently or at seasonal timescales. Lastly, a single set of evaporative sources is not identifiable as the key determinant in propagating a remote teleconnection because the sources of moisture anomalies depend on the pattern of sub-seasonally varying dynamical forcing in the atmosphere.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differential Impact of Climate Change on the Hydropower Economies of Karakoram and Himalayan River Basins

Water stored in the form of snow and glaciers in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region regulates the water supply, and resultant water-based economies, that support the livelihoods of millions of people. Trends in the seasonal and long-term melting of snow and glaciers, governed by initial ice reserves, meteorological factors and geographic features, vary across sub-basins in the HMA region. We examined the economic impacts of climate-led changes in river flow in two drainage basins, one each from the Karakoram and Central Himalaya region. We used an integrated assessment framework to estimate the changes in economic value of the hydropower generation from hydropower plants on rivers fed by snow and glacier melt in the two sub-basins. The framework, developed under a NASA High Mountain Asia project, coupled biophysical models (a suite of climate models, snow/glacier-hydrology, and hydropower model) with economic analysis. We compared the differences in estimated river flow over historic and future time using the water balance model in sixteen scenarios (eight climate models and two emissions scenarios) for rivers upstream of hydropower plants in each sub-basin. Using the hydropower model we developed, we estimated the changes in hydropower generation at the Naltar IV hydropower plant, with an 18 MW capacity, located in Hunza, Karakoram, and the Trishuli hydropower plant, with a 19.6 MW capacity, in Trishuli, Central Himalaya. When compared to their baselines, the estimated impact of climate change and temporal variability were higher for the Naltar plant than for the Trishuli plant. Our sensitivity analysis shows that hydropower plants with water storage facilities help reduce the impact of changes, but the estimated impacts are higher for the higher capacity plants. This study provides an example of the differential impacts of climate change on hydropower plants located in rivers fed by varying amounts of snow and glacier melt at different decades in this century. This type of integrated assessment of climate change impact will support the scientific understanding of hydrologic flow and its impacts on a hydropower economy under various climate scenarios, as well as generate information about water resource management in a changing climate.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Study of Hydrology and Icemelt in Three Nepal River Basins Using the Glacio-Hydrological Degree-Day Model (GDM) and Observations From the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT)

An assessment of the water supply and its seasonal and annual changes over the century in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region is of increasing interest due to its potential impact on one-sixth of the global population. In order to understand the changing hydrology and snow and ice melt, we used remotely sensed Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) observations of glacier melt (GM) and a distributed and gridded Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) in three river basins: Tamor, Trishuli and Marsyangdi. The GDM-estimated contribution of snowmelt, icemelt, rainfall and baseflow in river flows is found to be most accurate in the Trishuli River basin, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between the estimated and observed discharges of 0.81 and volume differences of -0.5%, and reasonably accurate in the Tamor River basin, with NSE of 0.69 and volume difference of -7.51%. Similarly, NSE of 0.81 and volume difference of 4.64% in Marsyangdi River basin. We find strong similarities in the timing of glacier melting using the GDM and from observations from the ASCAT GM, determining the seasonal start of glacier melting to within 6 days on average. In all basins ASCAT GM observes melting at higher elevations relative to GDM, average of 5,328 m a.s.l. Systematic differences in glacier melting area determined by modeling and satellite observations indicate ASCAT may have suboptimal resolution, view geometry and/or polarimetry for delineating glacier melting at the process-scale in complex topography, especially in the ablation zone. This is the first step in examining the remote sensing products that could potentially be incorporated into hydrologic models to increase the accuracy of the hydrologic flow as well as the ability to estimate river discharge in other basins with limited data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Assimilation to Improve Snow Mass Estimation across Complex Terrain in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan

An ensemble Kalman filter is used to assimilate Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR2) observations of passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures (spectral differences, ΔT b ) into land surface model estimates of snow mass over northwestern high mountain Asia (HMA). Trained support vector machines serve as the observation operator and map the geophysical modeled variables into ΔT b space within the assimilation framework. Evaluation of the assimilation routine is carried out through comparison of assimilated snow mass estimates with an in situ dataset. The assimilation framework helps improve the land surface model estimates through PMW ΔT b assimilation, particularly in terms of decreasing the domain-wide bias. The assimilation framework proved more effective during the (dry) snow accumulation season and decreased the bias and root-mean-square error (RMSE) in snow mass estimates at 76% and 58% of the comparative pixels, respectively. During the snow ablation season, the PMW brightness temperature signal contained less information related to snow mass due to the presence of other concurrent geophysical features that effectively serve as noise during the snow mass update. The utilization of PMW ΔT b for accurate snow mass estimation in complex terrain such as HMA is dependent on a multitude of factors for optimal results; however, it does add utility to the land surface model if the relevant pitfalls are taken into consideration prior to the state variable update.

Jawairia Ahmad↗
NASA NTRS2023

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Global Landslide Reporting Using a Decade of the Global Landslide Catalog

Rainfall-triggered landslides can result in devastating loss of life and property damage and are a growing concern from local to global scale. NASA’s Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) compiles a record of rainfall-triggered landslide events from media reports, academic articles, and existing databases at global scale. The database consists of all types of mass movement events that are triggered by rainfall and represents a minimum number of events occurring between 2007 – 2018. The research presented here evaluates global patterns in landslide reporting from events in the GLC. The evaluation includes an analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of global landslide events and associated casualties and comparisons with other landslide inventories. This database has been used to estimate landslide hotspots, evaluate geographic patterns in landslides, and train and validate landslide models from local to global scales. The most notable landslide hotspots are in the Pacific Northwest of North America, High Mountain Asia, and the Philippines. Additionally, the relationship between country GDP and income status with landslide occurrence was determined to have a positive correlation between economic status and landslide reporting. The GLC also indicates a reporting bias towards English-speaking countries. The general goal of this research is to assess the decade of global landslide reports from the GLC and show how this database can be used for rainfall-triggered landslide research.

Global Landslide Catalog↗